Hugo S. Gomes, Alex R. Piquero, Rafaela Costa Martins, Thaís Martins-Silva, Michelle Degli Esposti, Cauane Blumenberg, Andreas Bauer, Janaína Motta, Bernardo Horta, Joseph Murray
Background
Many studies have found that a small group of chronic offenders is responsible for the majority of crimes and tend to be particularly violent. However, there is a major lack of evidence on chronic offending in low- and middle-income countries; understanding these patterns is especially important in settings with very high levels of serious violence, such as Brazil.
Aims
To identify the extent that crime is concentrated in chronic offenders and linked to violence and homicide in a Brazilian cohort.
Methods
The 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort includes 5623 participants followed from birth in 1982 with complete crime records up to age 30. Chronic offenders were defined as individuals who committed five or more offences and, in aggregate, over 50% of all crimes. Key offending characteristics including age of onset, violent and homicide offending, and incarceration rates were compared across three different offender groups (one-timers, below-chronic and chronic offenders).
Results
Approximately 27% of participants had a record for at least one crime by age 30, and 5% were chronic offenders. Chronic offenders were responsible for 57% of all crimes, 54% of violent crimes and 68% of homicides. Chronic offenders exhibited more severe patterns of offending on all characteristics examined compared to non-chronic offenders. Homicides committed by chronic offenders were more likely to involve firearms than those by non-chronic offenders.
Discussion
This is the first study to analyse chronic offending within a large prospective cohort in a low- and middle-income country. Chronic offending patterns in this Brazilian setting resemble those in high-income country studies and are highly related to homicides.
{"title":"Chronic Offending and Its Relation to Homicide in a Large, Prospective Brazilian Birth Cohort","authors":"Hugo S. Gomes, Alex R. Piquero, Rafaela Costa Martins, Thaís Martins-Silva, Michelle Degli Esposti, Cauane Blumenberg, Andreas Bauer, Janaína Motta, Bernardo Horta, Joseph Murray","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2367","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2367","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Many studies have found that a small group of chronic offenders is responsible for the majority of crimes and tend to be particularly violent. However, there is a major lack of evidence on chronic offending in low- and middle-income countries; understanding these patterns is especially important in settings with very high levels of serious violence, such as Brazil.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To identify the extent that crime is concentrated in chronic offenders and linked to violence and homicide in a Brazilian cohort.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The 1982 Pelotas Birth Cohort includes 5623 participants followed from birth in 1982 with complete crime records up to age 30. Chronic offenders were defined as individuals who committed five or more offences and, in aggregate, over 50% of all crimes. Key offending characteristics including age of onset, violent and homicide offending, and incarceration rates were compared across three different offender groups (one-timers, below-chronic and chronic offenders).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Approximately 27% of participants had a record for at least one crime by age 30, and 5% were chronic offenders. Chronic offenders were responsible for 57% of all crimes, 54% of violent crimes and 68% of homicides. Chronic offenders exhibited more severe patterns of offending on all characteristics examined compared to non-chronic offenders. Homicides committed by chronic offenders were more likely to involve firearms than those by non-chronic offenders.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Discussion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This is the first study to analyse chronic offending within a large prospective cohort in a low- and middle-income country. Chronic offending patterns in this Brazilian setting resemble those in high-income country studies and are highly related to homicides.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"31-40"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143014142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
It is unlikely that David Farrington ever saw what I name in this commentary as the ‘Farrington Curve’, which plots the combined seriousness and frequency of reported offending among the most harmful suspects in any population. It is also unlikely that he ever knew just how extreme the difference can be in cumulative harm between median offenders and the most extreme outliers. Even so, without Farrington's years of pondering and publishing on such issues, I doubt that Sir Mark Rowley, a Cambridge mathematics graduate and current Commissioner of Police of the Metropolis, would have even asked a vitally important question as he took office in 2022: Who are the hundred most dangerous people in London?
Fortunately, the work of David Farrington had already spread widely in British criminology and policing, at least among the discerning. That work, based on the 411 males from southeast London who David studied for much of his life (and theirs), revealed important differences among people who were either self-reported criminals, convicted offenders or both. These differences went far beyond the orthodox UK Civil Service perspective on repeat offending as an either/or category, with nil regard to the difference between a bicycle theft and a murder or between one bike theft and two hundred.
As late as 2007, the UK Home Office told me that the only officially acceptable test of whether a justice innovation worked was the percentage of convicted offenders who were convicted a second time within a fixed time period (usually 2 years). Even while the Home Office economists had been developing a cost-of-crime weighting for common offences based on governmental expenditures per crime for each crime type (Brand and Price 2000), the policy officials would not accept a cost-of-crime reduction as a measure of reduced severity and frequency of crime. In response to my challenge, I was invited by the Home Office policy team to argue the point with a Home Office statistician, but the statistician agreed with me—and with David Farrington who had already written on the issue. Therefore, using the Home Office economists' estimates of cost-of-crime tariffs by offence category, the estimates by Shapland et al. (2008) were able to show that police-led restorative justice conferences lowered repeat offending costs of crime substantially in three of our randomised controlled trials (L. W. Sherman et al. 2015).
The foundation for the Home Office economists' work had been laid decades ago by David Farrington. His 1987 Crime and Justice article showed how large the variance in the frequency of crime was across his 411 cases (Farrington 1987). That article also identified the need for criminology to create an index to show how dangerous the mix of any one person's offending was in relation to the relative seriousness of the variety of offence types. In a 1985 discussion of differences in
大卫·法灵顿不太可能看到我在这篇评论中所说的“法灵顿曲线”，它描绘了任何人群中最有害的嫌疑人的犯罪严重程度和频率。他也不太可能知道，在累积伤害方面，中等犯罪者和最极端的异常犯罪者之间的差异有多大。即便如此，如果没有法灵顿多年来对这些问题的思考和发表，我怀疑剑桥大学数学专业毕业生、现任伦敦警察局局长马克·罗利爵士（Sir Mark Rowley）在2022年上任时甚至会提出一个至关重要的问题：谁是伦敦最危险的100个人？幸运的是，大卫·法灵顿的研究已经在英国的犯罪学和警务领域广为流传，至少在有鉴赏力的人群中是如此。这项研究以411名来自伦敦东南部的男性为研究对象，大卫一生中大部分时间都在研究这些男性（以及他们自己）。研究发现，在自认罪犯、已定罪罪犯或两者兼而有之的人群中，存在着重要的差异。这些差异远远超出了英国公务员将重复犯罪视为非此非彼的传统观点，没有考虑到自行车盗窃和谋杀之间的区别，也没有考虑到自行车盗窃和200辆之间的区别。直到2007年，英国内政部（UK Home Office）还告诉我，唯一官方认可的司法改革是否奏效的检验标准，是在一段固定时间内（通常是2年）再次被定罪的罪犯所占比例。尽管内政部的经济学家们一直在根据每种犯罪类型的每宗犯罪的政府支出（Brand and Price 2000）为普通犯罪开发一种犯罪成本加权法，但政策官员们不接受将犯罪成本的降低作为犯罪严重程度和频率降低的衡量标准。为了回应我的挑战，内政部政策小组邀请我与内政部的一位统计学家就这一观点进行辩论，但这位统计学家同意我的观点，并同意已经就此问题发表过文章的大卫·法灵顿的观点。因此，使用内政部经济学家对犯罪类别的犯罪成本关税的估计，Shapland等人（2008）的估计能够表明，在我们的三个随机对照试验中，警察领导的恢复性司法会议大大降低了犯罪的重复犯罪成本（L. W. Sherman等人，2015）。几十年前，大卫•法灵顿（David Farrington）为内政部经济学家的工作奠定了基础。他在1987年发表的《犯罪与司法》（Crime and Justice）文章表明，在他的411个案例中，犯罪频率的差异有多大（Farrington 1987）。该条还指出，犯罪学需要建立一个指数，以表明任何一个人的犯罪行为的混合与各种犯罪类型的相对严重性有关。在1985年关于个人犯罪严重程度差异的讨论中，大卫·法灵顿（David Farrington）和我开始推测，在“所有犯罪生来平等”的情况下，犯罪行为的这一维度是否比犯罪频率的差异更大。在与Peter和Eleanor Neyroud （L. Sherman, Neyroud, and Neyroud 2016）发布可行的“剑桥犯罪危害指数”（CCHI）之前，我对这个问题进行了多年的思考。一旦掌握了这个指数，就可以根据受害者向警方报告的所有指控他们的罪行的严重程度对嫌疑犯进行“排序”。因此，当罗利局长提出这个问题时，苏格兰场的第一位首席科学官（L. Sherman）能够得出法林顿在1987年暗示的公制。通过绘制2022-2023年间超过10万名18岁以上被受害者和罪犯指认为暴力侵害妇女和女孩（VAWG）嫌疑人的数据，我们伦敦警察厅的团队发现，在这段时间内，只有大约3.5万名被指认为暴力侵害妇女和女孩（VAWG）的嫌疑人被指控犯有两项或两项以上的单独罪行。使用这一标准作为一种简单的（如果粗糙的）筛选虚假指控的方法，MPS团队根据每个嫌疑人的VAWG犯罪的CCHI总分，将所有两名或两名以上的犯罪嫌疑人按顺序排列。嫌疑人名单也仅限于那些从警察国家计算机（PNC）系统中获得指纹验证身份号码的人。使用国家量刑指导委员会推荐的剑桥犯罪危害指数（L. Sherman， Neyroud和Neyroud 2016）监禁日值（针对每个VAWG犯罪类别）作为量刑决定的起点，MPS数据分析师通过受害者或证人报告的每种犯罪的所有CCHI分数之和绘制了约35,000名嫌疑人的分布（下图1，如L. Sherman et al. 2024所示）。这就是我们所谓的“法灵顿曲线”，以纪念大卫·法灵顿向他的411个研究对象提出的这些问题，并得到了超过10万个“答案”。 当我们设计的VAWG曲线第一次出现在我的苏格兰场电子邮件中时，我惊讶地发现它是如此的极端和陡峭。即使在相同的人口规模范围内，这似乎比按地区划分的类似犯罪数量分布要极端得多。例如，当L. W. Sherman， Gartin和Buerger（1989）绘制了明尼阿波利斯115,000个街道地址的每一个地址时，他们发现通过电话（911）向警察报告的掠夺性犯罪事件最多为410起。然而，当我们考虑到伦敦的VAWG犯罪在严重程度上（而不仅仅是数量上）的变化时，我们发现，以1天监禁的量刑起点（CCHI评分）为基准，其严重性范围比任何因一次简单袭击而被命名的人都要高出1.3万倍。与伦敦景观的空间隐喻相比，这座大都市最高的建筑是“碎片大厦”，它高达95层，在许多单层建筑的景观之上。然而，在以监禁天数为单位的伤害度量中，最高违法者的VAWG伤害是最低违法者的1.3万倍，或几乎是137倍，而碎片大厦与许多建筑物的差异是95比1。危害最严重的罪犯和那些只有1天刑期的罪犯之间的巨大差距真的很难理解。如果不认识到极高伤害和最高伤害嫌疑人之间的巨大差异，我们就无法制定明智的犯罪政策。我们将“高”风险级别截断为单一类别，其顶部的范围比“高”危害的底部高1000倍，中间有一个巨大的“高”风险范围。然而，数据显示，危害的峰值是如此极端，以至于我们几乎忽略了它。我们将大部分资源投入到对包括VAWG在内的大量举报犯罪的一点点公众反应上。我们甚至没有做到的是投资于预防高危害犯罪，其资源与实施处罚的法官确定的危害程度成比例。大卫·法灵顿会是第一个说科学是渐进的，一个人的发展不能只以一个开发者的名字来命名。但法灵顿教授的遗产是个特例。他在《剑桥犯罪发展研究》（CSDD）中做了大量工作，塑造了一代犯罪学思想。我的这篇评论的论点是，在他推动CSDD在411个人及其家庭几十年的生命历程中向前发展之前，很少有政府官员或犯罪学家了解罪犯在伤害和犯罪频率方面存在重大差异。正如法林顿曲线所显示的那样，这条曲线在被指控的最高总伤害时尤为倾斜。因为我们都可以指出，大卫的工作是第一个对罪犯群体进行这种等级排序的分析，我们应该把他的名字放在这项工作（到目前为止）最明显的结果上。他的名字也会提醒我们，例如，永远不要支持将这种分析粗暴地应用于量刑指南，更不用说在审判中作为有罪的证据了。然而，他要做的是支持使用任何伤害指数（或犯罪严重程度分数，由国家统计局计算）来确定优先投资于受害者、地点和嫌疑人的犯罪预防。他后来关于犯罪成本的研究正是指向了这个方向（Farrington and Welsh, 2023）。因此，当我们记住大卫和他毕生致力于犯罪学的工作时，让我们用法林顿曲线来帮助人们看到大卫很久以前所期望的，我们最终会一起发现的东西。并不是所有的罪犯都一样。他们犯罪的频率和严重程度差别很大。我们在预防这些犯罪方面的投资也应该如此。作者声明无利益冲突。
{"title":"The Farrington Curve: A Commentary on How David Farrington Showed How to Prioritise the Most Harmful Offenders","authors":"Lawrence W. Sherman","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2372","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2372","url":null,"abstract":"<p>It is unlikely that David Farrington ever saw what I name in this commentary as the ‘Farrington Curve’, which plots the combined seriousness and frequency of reported offending among the most harmful suspects in any population. It is also unlikely that he ever knew just how extreme the difference can be in cumulative harm between median offenders and the most extreme outliers. Even so, without Farrington's years of pondering and publishing on such issues, I doubt that Sir Mark Rowley, a Cambridge mathematics graduate and current Commissioner of Police of the Metropolis, would have even asked a vitally important question as he took office in 2022: <i>Who are the hundred most dangerous people in London</i>?</p><p>Fortunately, the work of David Farrington had already spread widely in British criminology and policing, at least among the discerning. That work, based on the 411 males from southeast London who David studied for much of his life (and theirs), revealed important differences among people who were either self-reported criminals, convicted offenders or both. These differences went far beyond the orthodox UK Civil Service perspective on repeat offending as an either/or category, with nil regard to the difference between a bicycle theft and a murder or between one bike theft and two hundred.</p><p>As late as 2007, the UK Home Office told me that the only officially acceptable test of whether a justice innovation worked was the percentage of convicted offenders who were convicted a second time within a fixed time period (usually 2 years). Even while the Home Office economists had been developing a cost-of-crime weighting for common offences based on governmental expenditures per crime for each crime type (Brand and Price <span>2000</span>), the policy officials would not accept a cost-of-crime reduction as a measure of reduced severity and frequency of crime. In response to my challenge, I was invited by the Home Office policy team to argue the point with a Home Office statistician, but the statistician agreed with me—and with David Farrington who had already written on the issue. Therefore, using the Home Office economists' estimates of cost-of-crime tariffs by offence category, the estimates by Shapland et al. (<span>2008</span>) were able to show that police-led restorative justice conferences lowered repeat offending costs of crime substantially in three of our randomised controlled trials (L. W. Sherman et al. <span>2015</span>).</p><p>The foundation for the Home Office economists' work had been laid decades ago by David Farrington. His 1987 <i>Crime and Justice</i> article showed how large the variance in the frequency of crime was across his 411 cases (Farrington <span>1987</span>). That article also identified the need for criminology to create an index to show how <i>dangerous</i> the mix of any one person's offending was in relation to the relative seriousness of the variety of offence types. In a 1985 discussion of differences in ","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"3-5"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11786925/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143014143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<p>While randomized trials have become more common over the last quarter century, it remains the case that they are still rare relative to other approaches to assess programs or policies. Mazerolle et al. (<span>2023</span>), for example, identifies an upward trend in the use of randomized controlled trials in policing between 2004 and 2018, but shows that only 12% of all studies of evidence-based policing during that period used this method.</p><p>The increasing number of randomized trials that have been conducted in the 21st century in criminal justice suggests the practicality of carrying out randomized trials in a variety of areas in criminology. However, it is certainly still the case that many practitioners avoid randomized trials because of the constraints they often place on practitioner decision making (e.g. Clarke and Cornish <span>1972</span>). It is also the case that ethical and legal concerns often come up in developing such trials, as well as practical (financial and other) challenges around implementation of RCTs. David Farrington discussed alternative approaches when randomized trials are not an option, such as opting for within-individual analyses of crime causation (as opposed to between-individual analyses) based on high quality prospective longitudinal data (Farrington et al. <span>2002</span>). These can all be strong methods for drawing conclusions about programs or interventions, but Farrington saw it as critical for criminology as a science to prioritise randomized trials.</p><p>My observations of criminology as a discipline over the last few years lead me to another cause of resistance to randomized trials, which has not been noted as a key barrier to experimental research in the past. This is the turn towards ideology over science in criminology more generally. I do not have empirical data on this trend, but personal experience and conversations with colleagues lead me to the view that it has emerged as an important barrier to objective scientific work. An example of this was brought to my attention at a recent American Society of Criminology meeting at a panel I observed. One of the panelists, after noting that police and police research have become unpopular and stigmatised in criminology, stated that ‘it is clear from research that the police do not prevent crime’, continuing that only interventions relying on partnerships with the community prevent crime. I heartily agree that when the police partner with the community, they are likely to have greater crime prevention benefits. My colleagues and I have also produced evidence of this and argued for community/police partnerships over the years (e.g., see Braga and Weisburd <span>2010</span>). But there is also strong experimental evidence that the police can prevent crime when they simply increase patrol at crime hot spots without community involvement (Sherman and Weisburd <span>1995</span>; Braga et al. <span>2019</span>). This finding is well established, having be
虽然在过去的25年里，随机试验变得越来越普遍，但相对于其他评估项目或政策的方法，它们仍然很少见。例如，Mazerolle等人（2023）发现，2004年至2018年期间，警务中使用随机对照试验的趋势呈上升趋势，但表明在此期间，所有循证警务研究中只有12%使用了这种方法。21世纪在刑事司法领域进行的越来越多的随机试验表明，在犯罪学的各个领域进行随机试验是可行的。然而，由于随机试验经常对从业者的决策施加限制，许多从业者避免随机试验的情况仍然存在（例如Clarke和Cornish 1972）。此外，在开展此类试验的过程中，经常会出现伦理和法律问题，以及围绕随机对照试验实施的实际（财务和其他）挑战。David Farrington在无法进行随机试验时讨论了其他方法，例如选择基于高质量前瞻性纵向数据的犯罪因果关系的个体内部分析（而不是个体之间的分析）（Farrington et al. 2002）。这些都是得出有关项目或干预措施结论的有力方法，但法林顿认为，作为一门科学，优先考虑随机试验对犯罪学至关重要。在过去的几年里，我对犯罪学作为一门学科的观察使我发现了对随机试验的抵制的另一个原因，这在过去并没有被认为是实验研究的一个关键障碍。在犯罪学中，这是一种意识形态而非科学的转变。我没有关于这一趋势的经验数据，但个人经验和与同事的交谈使我认为，它已经成为客观科学工作的一个重要障碍。在最近的一次美国犯罪学学会（American Society of Criminology）会议上，我观察了一个小组，引起了我的注意。在注意到警察和警察研究在犯罪学中变得不受欢迎和污名化之后，一位小组成员指出，“从研究中可以清楚地看出，警察并不能预防犯罪”，并继续说，只有依靠与社区合作的干预才能预防犯罪。我由衷地同意，当警察与社区合作时，他们可能会有更大的预防犯罪的好处。多年来，我和我的同事也提出了这方面的证据，并主张建立社区/警察合作伙伴关系（例如，见Braga和Weisburd 2010）。但也有强有力的实验证据表明，如果警察在没有社区参与的情况下，在犯罪热点地区增加巡逻，就可以预防犯罪(Sherman and Weisburd 1995；Braga et al. 2019)。这一发现得到了充分的证实，并在美国国家科学院的两个小组中得到了陈述(Frydl和Skogan 2004；Weisburd and Majmundar 2018)，以及Campbell系统评论（Braga 2007）。但这并不符合许多犯罪学家对警察和犯罪控制的真实看法。这是意识形态战胜科学的一个例子。我所担心的是，有时意识形态，以及许多犯罪学家想要相信的东西，似乎已经超越了科学证据。我总是告诉我的学生，‘我们的工作是讲真话’——公开地描述证据所说的，在这方面，也要清楚证据的局限性。有时候，证据与我们认为的真实或我们希望的真实相矛盾。但作为科学家，我们的义务是提供证据，而不是我们希望的证据是什么。有时，证据并不符合政治背景下的流行或可接受的观点。这个小组只是犯罪学意识形态转变的一个小例子，但在我看来，这似乎是将意识形态置于科学之上的更大趋势的一部分。在过去的一年里，我与一些年轻的同事进行了多次交谈，在交谈中，我被他们的感受所震惊，他们认为审稿人在评估他们的论文时，偏向于某一特定的结果或观点。这通常涉及显示种族或阶层对结果的影响，因此他们觉得自己有望得出一组特定的发现。当然，种族和阶层分化是美国乃至其他社会面临的最重要问题之一，但如果这些同事提出的观点是正确的，那么由于对特定结果的偏见，我们将离解决这些问题更远。这是Pattillo（2021）提出的观点，他认为社会科学家过于关注黑人的劣势，导致刻板印象的强化，而忽视了黑人社区特定优势的有力证据。 科学是关于尽可能地确定“真相”，而不是关于加强特定的政治立场或信仰。值得注意的是，我们的研究建议虽然对热点警务有影响，也对关注犯罪热点的社会干预有影响，但根本没有涉及警察。相反，我们建议以微观地理分析单位收集犯罪数据，以确定城市犯罪集中的水平，以及导致犯罪集中程度更高或更低的因素。这些批评并没有阻止我们的项目获得资助，但这是我们需要回应的“重要”批评。值得注意的是，评论者认为提出这些问题很重要，而且完全不觉得有必要详细说明对警察的指控，因为这些指控符合警察的特定意识形态观点。当然有很多关于警察滥用职权的研究，但这里的评论几乎没有显示出警务世界的细微差别。此外，审稿人在要求我们审查我们过去的研究是否以道德和程序公正的方式应用时，并没有感到任何约束。这当然是一个有趣的问题，也是我和我的同事在一个试验场试验中深入研究的问题（Weisburd et al. 2022），但要求在一项不同的提案中回顾过去的工作，显然似乎是一种意识形态的转变。最后，关于提升职业生涯的评论当然不在审查的框架之内。然而，资助者显然感到有义务将这些评论包括在内，这本身就提出了对犯罪学中特定意识形态观点作出反应的压力的问题。我没有犯罪学实验工作贬值的经验证据，但我再次听到年轻学者告诉我，人们已经从重视强有力的实验研究和此类研究的元分析转向重视犯罪学的民族志和定性研究。我想强调的是，这类研究是科学的重要组成部分，在我看来，它是对随机试验的补充。例如，在系统评价中包含定性数据肯定有很大的好处（Ajzenstadt 2016）。但这类研究不能替代对项目成果进行严格的实验试验。例如，定性方法是发展对驱动实验结果的机制的理解的关键，并且可以为需要由犯罪学家解决的问题提供重要见解。它们在实验范式之外也有很多价值。但我听到的更多的是推动实验性研究贬值。对实验研究的“工程师观点”的反应是一种推进关于什么是有效的知识的途径（Stevenson 2023），它认为不可能有一种建立在实验科学上的“基于证据的”方法，这将我们推向了意识形态与科学同等重要的犯罪学。这直接与大卫·法灵顿的遗产相矛盾，他呼吁我们在评估研究中优先考虑实验。我们需要进行严格的实验研究，并对与传统智慧不同的发现持开放态度！随机试验在评估项目和治疗方面具有特殊的价值。当然，并不是所有的随机试验都能充分发挥随机化的好处。例如，有时程序不能可靠地遵循，在这种情况下，随机试验提供有效答案的能力受到挑战。反过来，有时随机实验不能被广泛推广，因为被检查的特定样本。当涉及到在现实生活中实施高保真度的随机试验时，存在明显的挑战，当然，当涉及到对相关研究结果的细微解释时，还存在额外的挑战（Jeffery et al. 2024）。然而，与犯罪学中其他常用的方法相比，采用忠实度随机实验并检查感兴趣的人群，得出的结论不那么模棱两可，也不太受研究者偏见的威胁（Weisburd, Lum, and Petrosino, 2001）。这是大卫·法灵顿在他的职业生涯中一直强调的一点，他试图鼓励严格的随机试验。大卫·法灵顿（David Farrington）试图在犯罪学中建立一门更强大的科学，在这门科学中，随机试验将优先用于评估项目和政策。这并不意味着他认为随机试验是唯一值得重视的方法。他是纵向研究的坚定支持者，并认为当随机试验无法选择时，应该推广其他模拟实验的分析——包括个体内部分析和倾向评分匹配——以试图确定犯罪的原因（Farri
{"title":"Commentary: Prioritising Randomized Trials; David P. Farrington's Legacy for Criminology in the 21st Century","authors":"David Weisburd","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2371","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2371","url":null,"abstract":"<p>While randomized trials have become more common over the last quarter century, it remains the case that they are still rare relative to other approaches to assess programs or policies. Mazerolle et al. (<span>2023</span>), for example, identifies an upward trend in the use of randomized controlled trials in policing between 2004 and 2018, but shows that only 12% of all studies of evidence-based policing during that period used this method.</p><p>The increasing number of randomized trials that have been conducted in the 21st century in criminal justice suggests the practicality of carrying out randomized trials in a variety of areas in criminology. However, it is certainly still the case that many practitioners avoid randomized trials because of the constraints they often place on practitioner decision making (e.g. Clarke and Cornish <span>1972</span>). It is also the case that ethical and legal concerns often come up in developing such trials, as well as practical (financial and other) challenges around implementation of RCTs. David Farrington discussed alternative approaches when randomized trials are not an option, such as opting for within-individual analyses of crime causation (as opposed to between-individual analyses) based on high quality prospective longitudinal data (Farrington et al. <span>2002</span>). These can all be strong methods for drawing conclusions about programs or interventions, but Farrington saw it as critical for criminology as a science to prioritise randomized trials.</p><p>My observations of criminology as a discipline over the last few years lead me to another cause of resistance to randomized trials, which has not been noted as a key barrier to experimental research in the past. This is the turn towards ideology over science in criminology more generally. I do not have empirical data on this trend, but personal experience and conversations with colleagues lead me to the view that it has emerged as an important barrier to objective scientific work. An example of this was brought to my attention at a recent American Society of Criminology meeting at a panel I observed. One of the panelists, after noting that police and police research have become unpopular and stigmatised in criminology, stated that ‘it is clear from research that the police do not prevent crime’, continuing that only interventions relying on partnerships with the community prevent crime. I heartily agree that when the police partner with the community, they are likely to have greater crime prevention benefits. My colleagues and I have also produced evidence of this and argued for community/police partnerships over the years (e.g., see Braga and Weisburd <span>2010</span>). But there is also strong experimental evidence that the police can prevent crime when they simply increase patrol at crime hot spots without community involvement (Sherman and Weisburd <span>1995</span>; Braga et al. <span>2019</span>). This finding is well established, having be","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"6-9"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11786926/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142956544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<div> <section> <h3> Background</h3> <p>This article is dedicated to David Farrington who was a giant in criminology and, in particular, a pioneer in studying developmental pathways of delinquent and antisocial behaviour. Numerous studies followed his work. Systematic reviews of his and others' research described between two and seven (mainly 3–5) trajectories. The variation is due to the age of individuals, kind and seriousness of problem behaviour, data sources, assessment methods and cultural context. Reviews stated a lack of research on very early starting problem behaviour, broad developmental outcomes, data from multiple informants and (beyond description) on risk and protective factors or potential causes of the different trajectories.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Aims</h3> <p>The present study addresses these issues in a prospective longitudinal design and test of the concept of antisocial potential (AP) in Farrington's ICAP theory.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Methods</h3> <p>Data on more than 600 children and their families were gathered in a prospective longitudinal design over 10 years in Germany. To avoid potentially negative effects of criminal justice interventions, the study concentrates on child development from ages 4–5 to 6–7, 8–9, 10–12 and 13–14 years. Child externalising behaviour problems were assessed using the social behaviour questionnaire by kindergarten educators, mothers, school teachers and youth self-reports. Developmental trajectories were analysed by general growth curve modelling (GGCM) across five time points. The prediction and explanation of different pathways included family factors (SES, stressful life events, aggressive and inconsistent parenting) and child characteristics (intelligence, resting heart rate, disruptive behaviour, temperament and social adaptability). In accordance with dose–response relationships, we also tested accumulated factors in the Cracow Risk/Needs Instrument.</p> </section> <section> <h3> Results</h3> <p>The GGCM analysis revealed five developmental trajectories: high-chronics (2.4%), high-reducers (7.9%), medium-reducers (22.4%), late-starters medium (8.7%) and low-chronics (continuously unproblematic youngsters; 58.6%). Although the group with high externalising problems across all time points was rather small due to the affluent context of the region, there were significant social and individual differences between this and the other groups that fitted to ICAP theory. Furthermore, the study revealed differences between those youngsters that desisted from behaviour problems or sta
{"title":"Different Pathways of Externalising Behaviour Problems From Preschool to Youth: A Test of Risk and Protective Factors and Potential Origins","authors":"Friedrich Lösel, Mark Stemmler, Doris Bender","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2370","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2370","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This article is dedicated to David Farrington who was a giant in criminology and, in particular, a pioneer in studying developmental pathways of delinquent and antisocial behaviour. Numerous studies followed his work. Systematic reviews of his and others' research described between two and seven (mainly 3–5) trajectories. The variation is due to the age of individuals, kind and seriousness of problem behaviour, data sources, assessment methods and cultural context. Reviews stated a lack of research on very early starting problem behaviour, broad developmental outcomes, data from multiple informants and (beyond description) on risk and protective factors or potential causes of the different trajectories.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The present study addresses these issues in a prospective longitudinal design and test of the concept of antisocial potential (AP) in Farrington's ICAP theory.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Data on more than 600 children and their families were gathered in a prospective longitudinal design over 10 years in Germany. To avoid potentially negative effects of criminal justice interventions, the study concentrates on child development from ages 4–5 to 6–7, 8–9, 10–12 and 13–14 years. Child externalising behaviour problems were assessed using the social behaviour questionnaire by kindergarten educators, mothers, school teachers and youth self-reports. Developmental trajectories were analysed by general growth curve modelling (GGCM) across five time points. The prediction and explanation of different pathways included family factors (SES, stressful life events, aggressive and inconsistent parenting) and child characteristics (intelligence, resting heart rate, disruptive behaviour, temperament and social adaptability). In accordance with dose–response relationships, we also tested accumulated factors in the Cracow Risk/Needs Instrument.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The GGCM analysis revealed five developmental trajectories: high-chronics (2.4%), high-reducers (7.9%), medium-reducers (22.4%), late-starters medium (8.7%) and low-chronics (continuously unproblematic youngsters; 58.6%). Although the group with high externalising problems across all time points was rather small due to the affluent context of the region, there were significant social and individual differences between this and the other groups that fitted to ICAP theory. Furthermore, the study revealed differences between those youngsters that desisted from behaviour problems or sta","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"10-21"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11786933/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142956548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jianghong Liu, Yi Yang, Haoer Shi, Keri Ka-Yee Wong, Adrian Raine
Background
Understanding changes in aggressive behaviour throughout child development is crucial for identifying effective intervention strategies. This study investigates children's aggressive behaviour in a longitudinal cohort and explores the role of environmental tobacco exposure and fish consumption as potential risk and protective factors, respectively, for persistent aggression in children.
Methods
This study involved 452 children from the Chinese Jintan Cohort. Aggressive behaviour was assessed at ages 6 and 12 years using the child behaviour checklist (CBCL) and the Reactive–Proactive Aggression Questionnaire (RPQ), respectively. Information on lifestyle habits and living environment, including parental smoking, was collected via questionnaires. Linear regression was employed to investigate the association between childhood and adolescence aggressive behaviour with relevant covariates adjusted. Subsequently, we conducted interaction analyses to explore the moderating effects of parent smoking and fish consumption on the association.
Results
We identified no significant association between childhood and adolescent aggression in the entire sample. Interaction analysis revealed environmental tobacco exposure as a moderator for the association. Specifically, persistent reactive and total aggression across development was only observed among those with environmental tobacco exposure (reactive: β = 0.549, p = 0.020; total: β = 0.654, p = 0.035). Furthermore, within the parent smoking subgroup, freshwater fish consumption at the age of 12 showed a marginally significant interaction with childhood aggression (reactive: p = 0.061; total: p = 0.095). A significant longitudinal association for aggression was found only among those consuming fish less frequently at the age of 12 years (reactive: β = 0.927, p = 0.002; total: β = 1.082, p = 0.006).
Conclusion
Our findings suggest exposure to environmental tobacco as a contributing factor to the lasting presence of aggressive behaviour during children's development, whereas freshwater fish consumption shows potential protective effects.
背景：了解整个儿童发展过程中攻击行为的变化对于确定有效的干预策略至关重要。本研究对儿童的攻击行为进行了纵向队列调查，并分别探讨了环境烟草暴露和鱼类消费作为儿童持续攻击的潜在风险和保护因素的作用。方法：本研究纳入来自中国金坛队列的452名儿童。在6岁和12岁时分别使用儿童行为检查表（CBCL）和反应-主动攻击问卷（RPQ）评估攻击行为。通过问卷调查收集生活习惯和生活环境信息，包括父母吸烟情况。采用线性回归研究儿童期和青春期攻击行为之间的关系，并调整相关协变量。随后，我们进行了交互分析，以探索父母吸烟和鱼类消费对该关联的调节作用。结果：我们在整个样本中没有发现童年和青少年攻击之间的显著关联。相互作用分析显示，环境烟草暴露是该协会的调节因素。具体而言，仅在环境烟草暴露者中观察到持续的反应性攻击和总攻击(反应性：β = 0.549, p = 0.020；Total: β = 0.654, p = 0.035)。此外，在父母吸烟亚组中，12岁时食用淡水鱼与儿童攻击行为之间存在显著的交互作用(反应性：p = 0.061；p = 0.095)。只有在12岁时较少吃鱼的年龄组中，攻击性存在显著的纵向关联(反应性：β = 0.927, p = 0.002；Total: β = 1.082, p = 0.006)。结论：我们的研究结果表明，在儿童发育过程中，接触环境烟草是导致攻击性行为持续存在的一个因素，而食用淡水鱼则有潜在的保护作用。
{"title":"Persistent Aggressive Behaviour From Childhood to Adolescence: The Influence of Environmental Tobacco Exposure and the Protective Role of Fish Consumption","authors":"Jianghong Liu, Yi Yang, Haoer Shi, Keri Ka-Yee Wong, Adrian Raine","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2368","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2368","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Understanding changes in aggressive behaviour throughout child development is crucial for identifying effective intervention strategies. This study investigates children's aggressive behaviour in a longitudinal cohort and explores the role of environmental tobacco exposure and fish consumption as potential risk and protective factors, respectively, for persistent aggression in children.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This study involved 452 children from the Chinese Jintan Cohort. Aggressive behaviour was assessed at ages 6 and 12 years using the child behaviour checklist (CBCL) and the Reactive–Proactive Aggression Questionnaire (RPQ), respectively. Information on lifestyle habits and living environment, including parental smoking, was collected via questionnaires. Linear regression was employed to investigate the association between childhood and adolescence aggressive behaviour with relevant covariates adjusted. Subsequently, we conducted interaction analyses to explore the moderating effects of parent smoking and fish consumption on the association.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We identified no significant association between childhood and adolescent aggression in the entire sample. Interaction analysis revealed environmental tobacco exposure as a moderator for the association. Specifically, persistent reactive and total aggression across development was only observed among those with environmental tobacco exposure (reactive: <i>β</i> = 0.549, <i>p</i> = 0.020; total: <i>β</i> = 0.654, <i>p</i> = 0.035). Furthermore, within the parent smoking subgroup, freshwater fish consumption at the age of 12 showed a marginally significant interaction with childhood aggression (reactive: <i>p</i> = 0.061; total: <i>p</i> = 0.095). A significant longitudinal association for aggression was found only among those consuming fish less frequently at the age of 12 years (reactive: <i>β</i> = 0.927, <i>p</i> = 0.002; total: <i>β</i> = 1.082, <i>p</i> = 0.006).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusion</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Our findings suggest exposure to environmental tobacco as a contributing factor to the lasting presence of aggressive behaviour during children's development, whereas freshwater fish consumption shows potential protective effects.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"41-50"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11786934/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142956582","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Schools are widely considered important agents of social control for young people. Consequently, school engagement, disengagement and the school environment are key to understanding behavioural outcomes during adolescence. This study addresses an empirical gap in longitudinal research by examining new types of school engagement, as well as school-level environmental factors.
Aims
To understand the role that school engagement and the school environment play in shaping trajectories of antisocial behaviour.
Methods
Using longitudinal survey of Australian children (LSAC), this study employed trajectory analysis to identify trajectories of ASB over 4 waves. We tested the influence that early high school engagement and the school environment had on ASB trajectories through a series of multinomial logistic regressions.
Results
Of the 2983 Australian school students included in the study, three trajectory groups were identified: no ASB (n = 1599), low-level ASB (n = 1158) and moderate-level ASB (n = 88). The influence of truancy, suspension/expulsion and school avoidance were all particularly strong, and student–teacher relationships were found to both directly and indirectly influence levels of ASB.
Conclusions
This longitudinal study provides a comprehensive overview of trajectories of antisocial behaviour during adolescence and how they are influenced by experiences at school. It confirms the strong influence of behavioural disengagement and offers new insights into the role of affective school engagement and the school environment.
{"title":"Does the School Environment and School Engagement in Early High School Predict Trajectories of Anti-Social Behaviour? A National Longitudinal Study of Australian Youth From 12 to 19 years","authors":"Olivia Halls, Ben Edwards","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2366","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2366","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Schools are widely considered important agents of social control for young people. Consequently, school engagement, disengagement and the school environment are key to understanding behavioural outcomes during adolescence. This study addresses an empirical gap in longitudinal research by examining new types of school engagement, as well as school-level environmental factors.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To understand the role that school engagement and the school environment play in shaping trajectories of antisocial behaviour.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Using longitudinal survey of Australian children (LSAC), this study employed trajectory analysis to identify trajectories of ASB over 4 waves. We tested the influence that early high school engagement and the school environment had on ASB trajectories through a series of multinomial logistic regressions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Of the 2983 Australian school students included in the study, three trajectory groups were identified: no ASB (<i>n</i> = 1599), low-level ASB (<i>n</i> = 1158) and moderate-level ASB (<i>n</i> = 88). The influence of truancy, suspension/expulsion and school avoidance were all particularly strong, and student–teacher relationships were found to both directly and indirectly influence levels of ASB.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>This longitudinal study provides a comprehensive overview of trajectories of antisocial behaviour during adolescence and how they are influenced by experiences at school. It confirms the strong influence of behavioural disengagement and offers new insights into the role of affective school engagement and the school environment.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"51-62"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142956580","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
David Farrington (1944–2024) wrote extensively about the methodological rigour and utility of the longitudinal-experimental research design to advance knowledge about the development, explanation, prevention and treatment of antisocial behaviour and criminal offending over the life-course. Founded in 1935, the Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study (CSYS) is recognised as the first randomised controlled trial in criminology and the first longitudinal-experimental study in criminology.
Aims
To report on key scientific and policy contributions made by the CSYS in investigating the development and prevention of delinquency and criminal offending over the life-course.
Methods
Uses previously analysed observational and experimental data from follow-ups of study participants conducted in middle age (N = 494; mean = 47 years) and old age (N = 488; 84–92 years).
Results
Identified several parental socialisation practices and interactions during childhood (but not father absence) as strongly associated with serious criminal offending in middle age. Support for peer deviancy as a causal mechanism for iatrogenic effects among treatment groups, compared to pair-matched controls, during middle age drew policy attention to group-based prevention interventions.
Conclusions
The longitudinal-experimental design is a highly important yet under-utilised methodological approach in criminology. Future research should include revisiting the original plan for the design, addressing a key potential concern of the design and carrying out longer follow-ups at key stages of the life-course.
{"title":"The Longitudinal-Experimental Design and the Development and Prevention of Criminal Offending Over the Life-Course: Advances in Science and Policy From the Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study","authors":"Brandon C. Welsh","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2369","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2369","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>David Farrington (1944–2024) wrote extensively about the methodological rigour and utility of the longitudinal-experimental research design to advance knowledge about the development, explanation, prevention and treatment of antisocial behaviour and criminal offending over the life-course. Founded in 1935, the Cambridge-Somerville Youth Study (CSYS) is recognised as the first randomised controlled trial in criminology and the first longitudinal-experimental study in criminology.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To report on key scientific and policy contributions made by the CSYS in investigating the development and prevention of delinquency and criminal offending over the life-course.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Uses previously analysed observational and experimental data from follow-ups of study participants conducted in middle age (<i>N</i> = 494; mean = 47 years) and old age (<i>N</i> = 488; 84–92 years).</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Identified several parental socialisation practices and interactions during childhood (but not father absence) as strongly associated with serious criminal offending in middle age. Support for peer deviancy as a causal mechanism for iatrogenic effects among treatment groups, compared to pair-matched controls, during middle age drew policy attention to group-based prevention interventions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The longitudinal-experimental design is a highly important yet under-utilised methodological approach in criminology. Future research should include revisiting the original plan for the design, addressing a key potential concern of the design and carrying out longer follow-ups at key stages of the life-course.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 2","pages":"89-94"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142956583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Max A. Halvorson, Justin D. Caouette, John S. Briney, Margaret R. Kuklinski, Sabrina Oesterle, J. David Hawkins
Background
Cumulative risk scores predict negative outcomes including antisocial behaviour and mental health. Less work has examined the role of cumulative protection, despite the availability of preventive interventions focused on bolstering protection across domains. Understanding links between cumulative risk and protection measured in childhood and later outcomes can help to guide the timing of prevention programmes.
Aims
The study aimed to understand the relative contributions of early adolescent cumulative risk and cumulative protection in Grade 6 on distal outcomes six to seven years later, at ages 18–19.
Methods
Data are from the Community Youth Development Study, a community-randomised trial of the Communities That Care prevention system. The analysis sample consisted of 2002 participants from 12 control communities. Logistic regression models were estimated to quantify the main and interactive effects of Grade 6 cumulative risk and protection on alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use; antisocial behaviour, and depression at ages 18–19.
Results
When considered in separate models, cumulative risk and protection were each associated with later alcohol, tobacco and cannabis misuse; antisocial behaviour and depression. When considered together, coefficients for cumulative protection were attenuated, whereas coefficients for cumulative risk remained similar in magnitude. Cumulative risk was associated with larger outcome prevalence differences (average of 9%) than cumulative protection (average of 2%). Evidence for risk-protection interactions was not observed.
Conclusions
Although early adolescent cumulative protection was associated with later outcomes, these associations were largely reduced when considering cumulative risk. Findings emphasise the importance of addressing cumulative risk when designing preventive interventions.
{"title":"Cumulative Risk and Cumulative Protection: Relative Contributions to Predicting Substance Use, Antisocial Behaviour and Mental Health Across Development","authors":"Max A. Halvorson, Justin D. Caouette, John S. Briney, Margaret R. Kuklinski, Sabrina Oesterle, J. David Hawkins","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2365","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2365","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Cumulative risk scores predict negative outcomes including antisocial behaviour and mental health. Less work has examined the role of cumulative protection, despite the availability of preventive interventions focused on bolstering protection across domains. Understanding links between cumulative risk and protection measured in childhood and later outcomes can help to guide the timing of prevention programmes.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The study aimed to understand the relative contributions of early adolescent cumulative risk and cumulative protection in Grade 6 on distal outcomes six to seven years later, at ages 18–19.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Data are from the Community Youth Development Study, a community-randomised trial of the Communities That Care prevention system. The analysis sample consisted of 2002 participants from 12 control communities. Logistic regression models were estimated to quantify the main and interactive effects of Grade 6 cumulative risk and protection on alcohol, tobacco and cannabis use; antisocial behaviour, and depression at ages 18–19.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>When considered in separate models, cumulative risk and protection were each associated with later alcohol, tobacco and cannabis misuse; antisocial behaviour and depression. When considered together, coefficients for cumulative protection were attenuated, whereas coefficients for cumulative risk remained similar in magnitude. Cumulative risk was associated with larger outcome prevalence differences (average of 9%) than cumulative protection (average of 2%). Evidence for risk-protection interactions was not observed.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Although early adolescent cumulative protection was associated with later outcomes, these associations were largely reduced when considering cumulative risk. Findings emphasise the importance of addressing cumulative risk when designing preventive interventions.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"22-30"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142956546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Freya Walker, David Murphy, Laura Gröger, Estelle Moore
Background
The term neurodiversity is an umbrella term for any atypical pattern of cognitive ability, including but not confined to neurodevelopmental disorders. Research suggests that several neurodivergent conditions are overrepresented in offender populations, with a recent survey suggesting that over half of those coming into contact with the criminal justice system may have a neurodivergent condition. Considerable effort has been invested in trying to divert people with such conditions out of long-stay hospitals, but nevertheless, a few studies in secure hospitals suggest that while prevalence in hospitals may be lower than in prisons, it is high relative to the general population.
Aims
To determine the prevalence of recorded neurodivergent conditions in one high secure hospital.
Methods
We conducted a records survey of a resident cohort of men in one high secure hospital in England during December 2022.
Results
Records were accessed for all 197 resident men. According to these records, over one-half (115, 58%) of the men had at least one neurodivergent condition; nearly a third (56, 29%) had more than one form of neurodivergent condition. The most frequently recorded form of neurodivergent condition was general cognitive dysfunction (24%), followed by general language difficulties (16%), ADHD (15%) and autism (14%) and those with a history of seizures (14%) and atypical brain scans (12%). Dyslexia was reported within 6.5% of patient notes, acquired brain injury 5% and chromosomal disorders 2%. The survey also suggests some differences in the prevalence of neurodivergent disorders across clinical groups, with higher rates among people with mental illness than with personality disorder. Prevalence was also unevenly distributed across nature of ward type.
Conclusions
With the survey suggesting that the majority of patients in one high secure psychiatric hospital have at least one form of neurodivergent condition, it raises questions around how useful the term is and what the term neurodivergence means in this population. With each form of neurodiversity having different needs, the diversity of conditions present also raises questions around what a ‘neurodiverse informed model of care’ would look like in forensic mental health services.
{"title":"Prevalence of Neurodiversity in a UK High Secure Psychiatric Hospital Cohort: A Records Study","authors":"Freya Walker, David Murphy, Laura Gröger, Estelle Moore","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2363","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2363","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Background</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>The term neurodiversity is an umbrella term for any atypical pattern of cognitive ability, including but not confined to neurodevelopmental disorders. Research suggests that several neurodivergent conditions are overrepresented in offender populations, with a recent survey suggesting that over half of those coming into contact with the criminal justice system may have a neurodivergent condition. Considerable effort has been invested in trying to divert people with such conditions out of long-stay hospitals, but nevertheless, a few studies in secure hospitals suggest that while prevalence in hospitals may be lower than in prisons, it is high relative to the general population.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Aims</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>To determine the prevalence of recorded neurodivergent conditions in one high secure hospital.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>We conducted a records survey of a resident cohort of men in one high secure hospital in England during December 2022.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Records were accessed for all 197 resident men. According to these records, over one-half (115, 58%) of the men had at least one neurodivergent condition; nearly a third (56, 29%) had more than one form of neurodivergent condition. The most frequently recorded form of neurodivergent condition was general cognitive dysfunction (24%), followed by general language difficulties (16%), ADHD (15%) and autism (14%) and those with a history of seizures (14%) and atypical brain scans (12%). Dyslexia was reported within 6.5% of patient notes, acquired brain injury 5% and chromosomal disorders 2%. The survey also suggests some differences in the prevalence of neurodivergent disorders across clinical groups, with higher rates among people with mental illness than with personality disorder. Prevalence was also unevenly distributed across nature of ward type.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>With the survey suggesting that the majority of patients in one high secure psychiatric hospital have at least one form of neurodivergent condition, it raises questions around how useful the term is and what the term neurodivergence means in this population. With each form of neurodiversity having different needs, the diversity of conditions present also raises questions around what a ‘neurodiverse informed model of care’ would look like in forensic mental health services.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 3","pages":"170-178"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recent evidence suggests that autonomic nervous system functioning can reflect individual differences in sensitivity to the environment, which in turn moderates the effects of family context on psychopathic and antisocial behaviour. Although some preliminary research suggests that the coordination of the sympathetic (SNS) and parasympathetic (PNS) branches of the autonomic nervous system may reflect sensitivity to environmental influences, the majority of research to date has been limited in its focus on just one branch, and little is known about the effects of parental empathy on a child's psychopathic-like traits. This study aimed to address this gap by examining if the SNS and PNS jointly moderate the prospective contribution of parental empathy to youth psychopathic-like traits.
Methods
Male and female children (n = 340; age = 8–10 years) from the community completed an emotion regulation task during which their skin conductance level (SCL) and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) activity were recorded. Parental cognitive, affective, and somatic empathy were reported by the caregivers. The child's psychopathic-like traits were reported by the caregiver and the child and were reassessed 1 year later.
Results
Hierarchical regression indicated that after controlling for child sex, age, and concurrent CU traits, low affective empathy in parents predicted higher CU traits 1 year later in youths who exhibited reciprocal sympathetic activation (i.e., SNS activation along with PNS withdrawal), reflecting their enhanced sensitivity to the environment. No such effects were found for other psychopathic-like traits.
Conclusions
Findings suggest that reciprocal SNS reactivity may be a biological indicator for sensitivity to environmental influence and highlight the importance of examining the interactions among multiple systems to better understand the aetiology of psychopathic traits.
{"title":"Low Parental Empathy Predicts Callous-Unemotional Traits in Children With Enhanced Autonomic Sensitivity to the Environment","authors":"Liat Kofler, Adrian Raine, Yu Gao","doi":"10.1002/cbm.2364","DOIUrl":"10.1002/cbm.2364","url":null,"abstract":"<div>\u0000 \u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Introduction</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Recent evidence suggests that autonomic nervous system functioning can reflect individual differences in sensitivity to the environment, which in turn moderates the effects of family context on psychopathic and antisocial behaviour. Although some preliminary research suggests that the coordination of the sympathetic (SNS) and parasympathetic (PNS) branches of the autonomic nervous system may reflect sensitivity to environmental influences, the majority of research to date has been limited in its focus on just one branch, and little is known about the effects of parental empathy on a child's psychopathic-like traits. This study aimed to address this gap by examining if the SNS and PNS jointly moderate the prospective contribution of parental empathy to youth psychopathic-like traits.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Methods</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Male and female children (<i>n</i> = 340; age = 8–10 years) from the community completed an emotion regulation task during which their skin conductance level (SCL) and respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) activity were recorded. Parental cognitive, affective, and somatic empathy were reported by the caregivers. The child's psychopathic-like traits were reported by the caregiver and the child and were reassessed 1 year later.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Results</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Hierarchical regression indicated that after controlling for child sex, age, and concurrent CU traits, low affective empathy in parents predicted higher CU traits 1 year later in youths who exhibited reciprocal sympathetic activation (i.e., SNS activation along with PNS withdrawal), reflecting their enhanced sensitivity to the environment. No such effects were found for other psychopathic-like traits.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 \u0000 <section>\u0000 \u0000 <h3> Conclusions</h3>\u0000 \u0000 <p>Findings suggest that reciprocal SNS reactivity may be a biological indicator for sensitivity to environmental influence and highlight the importance of examining the interactions among multiple systems to better understand the aetiology of psychopathic traits.</p>\u0000 </section>\u0000 </div>","PeriodicalId":47362,"journal":{"name":"Criminal Behaviour and Mental Health","volume":"35 1","pages":"63-72"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142883399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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