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ESG Rating Uncertainty and the Cost of Debt Financing ESG评级的不确定性与债务融资成本
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3123
Jinyu Chen, Xinyu Guo, Ran Liu

Using A-share listed companies in 2011–2022 as a research sample, this study manually calculates and constructs Environment, Social and Government (ESG) rating uncertainty at the level of Chinese listed companies and examines whether and how ESG rating uncertainty affects firms' cost of debt financing. The empirical results demonstrate that ESG rating uncertainty raises firms' debt financing costs. After a string of robustness tests, the results are still robust. Mechanism analysis identifies credit risk and corporate reputation as the primary channels driving this relationship. Furthermore, high levels of firm's internal control, region's public environmental concerns and the level of financial agglomeration are conducive to mitigating the adverse effects of ESG rating uncertainty. This article enriches the research on the impact of ESG rating uncertainty on microeconomic agents in emerging markets and provides new perspectives to alleviate corporate financing constraints.

本研究以2011-2022年a股上市公司为研究样本,人工计算并构建中国上市公司层面的环境、社会和政府(ESG)评级不确定性,考察ESG评级不确定性是否以及如何影响企业债务融资成本。实证结果表明,ESG评级的不确定性提高了企业的债务融资成本。经过一系列稳健性测试,结果仍然是稳健性的。机制分析表明,信用风险和企业声誉是推动这种关系的主要渠道。此外,高水平的企业内部控制、区域公众环境关注和金融集聚水平有利于缓解ESG评级不确定性的不利影响。本文丰富了新兴市场ESG评级不确定性对微观经济主体影响的研究,为缓解企业融资约束提供了新的视角。
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引用次数: 0
Deep Learning for Bond Yield Forecasting: The LSTM-LagLasso 债券收益率预测的深度学习:LSTM-LagLasso
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3116
Manuel Nunes, Enrico Gerding, Frank McGroarty, Mahesan Niranjan, Georgios Sermpinis

We present long short-term memory (LSTM)-LagLasso, a novel explainable deep learning approach applied to bond yield forecasting. Our method involves feature selection from a large universe of potential features and forecasts bond yields using dynamic LSTM networks. It examines the internal gating signals of a trained LSTM and explains their dynamics through exogenous variables that may influence bond price formation. By considering these variables at various lags and using the Lasso technique for feature selection, we demonstrate how different hidden units within the LSTM dynamically adjust to make predictions across different temporal regimes and how their evolution is shaped by various external factors. In an empirical study on government bond yield forecasting, we demonstrate the statistical accuracy of LSTM-LagLasso compared to a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and highlight its explainability.

我们提出了长短期记忆(LSTM)-LagLasso,一种新的可解释深度学习方法,应用于债券收益率预测。我们的方法包括从大量潜在特征中选择特征,并使用动态LSTM网络预测债券收益率。它检验了一个经过训练的LSTM的内部门通信号,并通过可能影响债券价格形成的外生变量解释了它们的动态。通过考虑不同滞后的这些变量并使用Lasso技术进行特征选择,我们展示了LSTM中的不同隐藏单元如何动态调整以在不同的时间范围内进行预测,以及它们的演变如何受到各种外部因素的影响。在政府债券收益率预测的实证研究中,我们证明了LSTM-LagLasso与多层感知器(MLP)相比的统计准确性,并强调了其可解释性。
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引用次数: 0
Digitalisation and Firm-Level ESG Performance and Disclosures: A Scientometric Review and Research Agenda 数字化与公司层面的ESG绩效和披露:科学计量学审查和研究议程
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-20 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3118
Monica Singhania, Ibna Bhan, Surabhi Seth

Digitalisation and sustainability are not just critical business notions; they are also interdependent drivers of future business success. By employing digital tools, firms can improve their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance, increase transparency, and maintain stakeholders' accountability. This increasing significance has elevated the value of examining the impact of digitalisation on firm-level ESG performance and disclosures. This study explores this relationship by synthesising 199 relevant research records published during 2019–2024, obtained from Web of Science and Scopus, using a bibliometric and systematic literature review approach. Our descriptive analysis reveals exponential growth in publications on this relationship during the study period, focusing predominantly on quantitative research leveraging secondary data. Regression analysis emerged as the most popular analytical technique, followed by structural equation modelling. The theoretical foundations of this research are based on the resource-based view and dynamic capabilities view. The Co-occurrence analysis identifies China, Italy, and England as the leading contributors, with research hot spots centring around concepts such as ‘Industry 4.0’, ‘sustainability performance’, ‘sustainable development’, and ‘sustainability reporting’. Co-citation analysis highlights the leading journals, authors, and documents, emphasising the scholarly foundations of this field. Further, thematic analysis uncovers the benefits of digitalisation across four dominant dimensions: sustainability performance, supply chain sustainability, sustainability assessment, and sustainability accounting and reporting. Finally, we discuss critical knowledge gaps and propose future research questions to advance understanding of this emerging field.

数字化和可持续性不仅是关键的商业概念;他们也是未来商业成功的相互依赖的驱动力。通过使用数字工具,企业可以改善其环境、社会和治理(ESG)绩效,提高透明度,并保持利益相关者的问责制。这种日益重要的意义提升了研究数字化对公司层面ESG绩效和披露影响的价值。本研究采用文献计量学和系统文献综述的方法,综合了Web of Science和Scopus在2019-2024年间发表的199篇相关研究文献,探讨了这一关系。我们的描述性分析显示,在研究期间,关于这种关系的出版物呈指数增长,主要集中在利用二手数据的定量研究上。回归分析成为最流行的分析技术,其次是结构方程建模。本研究的理论基础是基于资源基础观和动态能力观。共现分析将中国、意大利和英国列为主要贡献者,研究热点集中在“工业4.0”、“可持续绩效”、“可持续发展”和“可持续报告”等概念上。共引分析突出了主要期刊、作者和文献,强调了该领域的学术基础。此外,专题分析揭示了数字化在四个主要方面的好处:可持续性绩效、供应链可持续性、可持续性评估以及可持续性会计和报告。最后,我们讨论了关键的知识差距,并提出了未来的研究问题,以促进对这一新兴领域的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Risk and Foreign Direct Investment Entry Mode 气候风险与外国直接投资进入模式
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3120
Chengchun Li, Yun Luo, Glauco De Vita

The paper examines how climate risk impacts the strategic entry mode choices—between greenfield investments and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As)—of multinational enterprises (MNEs) into foreign markets. Our study adds to existing literature through a cross-countries empirical analysis and uses a newly developed dataset, the Multinational Revenue, Employment, and Investment Database (MREID), that accounts for how both physical and transition risks of climate change affect MNEs' entry mode choice. Physical risk refers to the tangible impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events, while transition risk involves regulatory and policy changes associated with moving towards a low-carbon economy. Using data for 139 source countries and 134 destination countries over the period from 2010 to 2021, we find that an increase in the physical risk of climate change leads to MNEs choosing greenfield investment when entering a new market while a higher level of transition risk discourages greenfield investment. Physical risk has a negative and significant influence on MNEs' entry choice of using cross-border M&A. There is a positive and significant correlation between transition risk and cross-border M&A though such a relationship is not robust. Industrial-level evidence shows a similar pattern in the majority of the industries. Our findings provide policymakers with guidelines helping to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on business decisions at the global level.

本文研究了气候风险如何影响跨国企业(MNEs)进入国外市场的战略进入模式选择——绿地投资和跨境并购(M&As)。我们的研究通过跨国实证分析补充了现有文献,并使用了新开发的数据集——跨国收入、就业和投资数据库(MREID),该数据库解释了气候变化的物理风险和转型风险如何影响跨国公司的进入模式选择。物理风险是指极端天气事件等气候变化的有形影响,而转型风险涉及与向低碳经济发展相关的监管和政策变化。利用2010年至2021年期间139个来源国和134个目的地国的数据,我们发现气候变化物理风险的增加导致跨国公司在进入新市场时选择绿地投资,而较高水平的转型风险则阻碍绿地投资。物理风险对跨国公司跨境并购的进入选择有显著负向影响;转型风险与跨国并购之间存在显著的正相关关系,但这种关系并不强。工业层面的证据显示,大多数行业都存在类似的模式。我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了指导方针,有助于减轻气候变化对全球商业决策的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Disclosure Fog: Institutional Investors and Corporate Greenwashing 披露迷雾:机构投资者和企业洗绿
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3096
Fumin Zhu, Haoyuan Fan, Zunxin Zheng

Corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure is often a superficial signal rather than something of substance and is an easily negligible form of greenwashing. Here, we explore the relationship between corporate disclosure greenwashing and institutional investors using data from Chinese listed heavily polluting firms from 2012 to 2021. We hypothesise and discover that while institutional investors encourage firms to publish social responsibility reports, they may actually discourage the use of sustainability-related phrases in these reports. The findings hold even after performing several endogeneity and robustness tests. We also identify three mechanisms through which institutional investors influence corporate greenwashing: corporate governance, information transparency, and corporate operations. Additionally, pressure-sensitive institutional investors are more likely to facilitate corporate greenwashing than pressure-insensitive and pressure-uncertain investors. However, after the Guidance on Building Green Financial System's implementation in 2016, the positive relationship between disclosure greenwashing and institutional investors has rapidly declined. The promotional effect of institutional investor-induced greenwashing is also lower in state-owned enterprises. Overall, our findings not only enrich the literature on institutional investors and corporate information disclosure but also have implications for improving the green financial system.

企业环境、社会和治理(ESG)披露往往是一个表面的信号,而不是实质性的东西,是一种很容易被忽视的“漂绿”形式。本文利用2012 - 2021年中国重污染上市公司的数据,探讨了公司披露“漂绿”与机构投资者之间的关系。我们假设并发现,虽然机构投资者鼓励公司发布社会责任报告,但他们实际上可能不鼓励在这些报告中使用与可持续发展相关的短语。即使在进行了几次内生性和稳健性测试后,研究结果仍然成立。我们还确定了机构投资者影响公司“漂绿”的三种机制:公司治理、信息透明度和公司运营。此外,对压力敏感的机构投资者比对压力不敏感和对压力不确定的投资者更有可能促进企业“漂绿”。然而,2016年《关于构建绿色金融体系的指导意见》实施后,信息披露漂绿与机构投资者之间的正相关关系迅速下降。在国有企业中,机构投资者诱导的“漂绿”促进效果也较低。总体而言,我们的研究结果不仅丰富了机构投资者与公司信息披露的相关文献,而且对完善绿色金融体系具有启示意义。
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引用次数: 0
Capital Market Opening and Corporate Innovation: Mediating Role of ESG Performance and Financing Constraints 资本市场开放与企业创新:ESG绩效与融资约束的中介作用
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-13 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3119
Jiyang Zhao, Xiaohong Wang, Xiangyu Luan

This study uses a quasi-natural experiment of the Shanghai-Hong Kong and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Connect Trading Systems to investigate the role of the capital market opening in fostering corporate innovation. We use panel data for A-listed corporations covering 2009–2021 to construct empirical analysis, and corroborate that the capital market opening can exert significantly positive influences on corporate innovation. The robustness of the research is verified. Furthermore, we conduct quantile analysis to investigate asymmetric effects, and employ multi-phase difference-in-difference-in-difference model, which reveals that the positive effect of capital market opening is more distinctly potent among the heavy polluters and the new-high-tech corporations. Moreover, the results also reflect that the capital market opening can enhance ESG performance and ease financing constraints, which in turn enhances corporate innovation. This study extends the researches on the topic regarding the relationship between capital market opening and corporate innovation, and outlines the theoretical and practical implications of helping foster corporate innovation.

本研究采用沪港通和深港通的准自然实验来考察资本市场开放对企业创新的促进作用。利用2009-2021年a上市公司面板数据构建实证分析,证实资本市场开放对企业创新具有显著的正向影响。验证了研究的稳健性。通过分位数分析研究了资本市场开放的非对称效应,并采用了多阶段差中差模型,结果表明资本市场开放对重污染企业和高新技术企业的正向效应更为明显。此外,研究结果还反映了资本市场开放可以提升ESG绩效,缓解融资约束,进而促进企业创新。本研究对资本市场开放与企业创新关系的研究进行了拓展,并概述了资本市场开放对促进企业创新的理论和实践意义。
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引用次数: 0
Do Co-Opted Boards Lead to Managerial Obfuscation? Evidence From the 10-K Report Readability 增选董事会会导致管理混乱吗?来自10-K报告可读性的证据
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-12 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3114
Ammar Ali Gull, Asad Ali Rind, Muhammad Tahir Suleman

This paper examines the relationship between board co-option and managerial obfuscation captured through linguistic complexity of 10-K reports. Using 7912 US firm-year observations from 2003 to 2018, we find that firms with a higher proportion of co-opted directors obfuscate the readability of the 10-K reports. The findings are robust across various variable definitions, sample specifications and remain significant after addressing endogeneity concerns through multiple approaches, including lead-lag regression, entropy balancing, instrumental variable analysis, the system GMM, and difference-in-difference estimations. Further analysis reveals that our main finding is driven by firms with weak internal (i.e., those with high CEO power and low board meeting attendance) and external (i.e., those with low institutional ownership and less analyst following) monitoring. The paper provides useful policy insights and implications for investors, regulators, and policymakers.

本文考察了通过10-K报告的语言复杂性捕获的董事会增选和管理混淆之间的关系。通过对2003年至2018年7912家美国公司的年度观察,我们发现增选董事比例较高的公司会混淆10-K报告的可读性。研究结果在各种变量定义、样本规格中都是稳健的,并且在通过多种方法(包括前导滞后回归、熵平衡、工具变量分析、系统GMM和差中差估计)解决内生性问题后仍然具有重要意义。进一步分析表明,我们的主要发现是由内部(即高CEO权力和低董事会出席率)和外部(即低机构所有权和较少分析师跟踪)监督薄弱的公司驱动的。本文为投资者、监管机构和政策制定者提供了有用的政策见解和启示。
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引用次数: 0
Exchange Rate Policies and USA–China Trade Balance 汇率政策与中美贸易平衡
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-10 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3102
Georgios Bertsatos, Nicholas Tsounis, George Agiomirgianakis

We investigate the effects of the real exchange rate on the trade balance between the USA and China by using a median threshold in non-linear modelling, controlling for several factors. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) models are estimated with zero threshold, as well as with median threshold, and this is the first time in the USA–China literature of balance of trade. Quarterly data are employed, and the examined sample covers the period 1995–2023. It appears that the threshold choice matters when it comes to policy implications. Specifically, NARDL with the conventional zero-threshold analysis could lead to misleading policy proposals, especially when there are strongly unequal probabilities in the USD appreciation and depreciation regime. In our case, the traditional analysis based on zero threshold leads to diametrically opposite policy suggestions of what the alternative methodology of median threshold would suggest. We find that a nominal USD appreciation suggests a perpetual improvement of the US trade balance, and such an improvement could be further magnified if the US prices increase more rapidly than China's prices (e.g., as in the period from 2020 onwards). Evidence also shows that the US balance of trade could be temporarily benefitted by medium or large USD depreciations in real terms, and such an improvement could be notably facilitated when the US–China prices’ differential is downward sloping (e.g., as in the 2006–2019 period).

我们通过在非线性模型中使用中位数阈值来研究实际汇率对中美贸易平衡的影响,并控制了几个因素。非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型分别采用零阈值和中位数阈值进行估计,这在中美贸易平衡文献中尚属首次。采用季度数据,审查样本涵盖1995-2023年期间。当涉及到政策影响时,门槛的选择似乎很重要。具体来说,传统的零门槛分析的NARDL可能会导致误导性的政策建议,特别是在美元升值和贬值机制中存在强烈不平等概率的情况下。在我们的案例中,基于零阈值的传统分析得出的政策建议与中位数阈值的替代方法截然相反。我们发现,美元名义升值意味着美国贸易平衡的永久改善,如果美国的价格上涨速度超过中国的价格(例如,从2020年开始),这种改善可能会进一步放大。有证据还表明,美国的贸易平衡可能会暂时受益于美元实际汇率的中等或大幅贬值,当美中价格差异向下倾斜时(例如,2006-2019年期间),这种改善可能会得到显著促进。
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引用次数: 0
The Resilience of Green Bonds During Market Turmoil: Implications for Investors and Policymakers 绿色债券在市场动荡中的弹性:对投资者和政策制定者的启示
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3099
Muhammad Saeed Meo, Sahar Afshan, Younes Ben Zaied, Marcin Staniewski

Despite significant growth, green bonds comprise less than 1% of the conventional bonds market, and more research is needed to determine their role as diversifiers, hedges or safe havens. In compliance. This study examines the co-movement between green bonds and various financial markets (stocks, commodities, digital currencies, bonds and foreign exchange) before and during COVID-19, using daily data from 28/11/2008 to 21/3/2022 and using quantile-based analysis. The findings based on quantile-on-quantile regression confirm an asymmetric/non-linear association between green bonds and other financial markets before COVID-19, with the association varying depending on market conditions, such as bearish, normal and bullish. During the COVID-19 period, a robust negative correlation is identified between green bonds and other financial markets, affirming the safe-haven role of green bonds against broader financial markets. These findings have important policy implications for investors, fund managers and policymakers. For increased diversification, investors in conventional and Islamic equities, commodities, conventional bonds, Sukuk markets, virtual and foreign currency markets can find it advantageous to include green bonds as a protection to downside risk.

尽管增长显著,但绿色债券占传统债券市场的比例不到1%,需要更多的研究来确定它们作为多元化、对冲或避险工具的作用。在合规。本研究利用2008年11月28日至2022年3月21日的每日数据,采用基于分位数的分析方法,考察了在2019冠状病毒病之前和期间绿色债券与各种金融市场(股票、大宗商品、数字货币、债券和外汇)之间的联动走势。基于分位数对分位数回归的研究结果证实,在新冠肺炎之前,绿色债券与其他金融市场之间存在不对称/非线性关联,这种关联取决于看跌、正常和看涨等市场状况。在2019冠状病毒病期间,绿色债券与其他金融市场之间存在强烈的负相关关系,证实了绿色债券对更广泛金融市场的避险作用。这些发现对投资者、基金经理和政策制定者具有重要的政策意义。为了增加多样化,传统和伊斯兰股票、大宗商品、传统债券、伊斯兰债券市场、虚拟货币和外汇市场的投资者可以发现,将绿色债券作为下行风险的保护是有利的。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Text-Based Financial Constraints on Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence From the UK Firms 基于文本的财务约束对股价崩盘风险的影响:来自英国公司的证据
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2025-01-08 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.3113
Acheampong Albert, Mahdi Mousavi, Giray Gozgor, Yeboah Patrick

This paper employs a textual analysis approach to quantify financial constraints information from the narrative sections of annual reports in the UK firms. Then, the paper examines the impact of this information on the stock price crash risk in 250 firms from 2005 to 2021. The paper also analyses the moderating role of adopting the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on the impact of text-based financial constraints on stock price crash risk. It is found that text-based financial constraints are positively associated with stock crash risk measures. It is also observed that adopting the IFRS weakens the positive impact of financial constraints on stock price crash risk. These results are robust to several controls and model specifications. The findings also have several implications for investors and other market participants for seeking evidence of the credibility of annual reports in reflecting relevant information that highlights financial constraints.

本文采用了一种文本分析的方法来量化财务约束信息,从英国公司的年度报告的叙述部分。然后,本文考察了这些信息对250家公司2005年至2021年股价崩溃风险的影响。本文还分析了采用国际财务报告准则(IFRS)对基于文本的财务约束对股价崩盘风险影响的调节作用。研究发现,基于文本的财务约束与股灾风险指标呈正相关。采用国际财务报告准则削弱了财务约束对股价崩盘风险的积极影响。这些结果对一些控制和模型规范具有鲁棒性。调查结果还对投资者和其他市场参与者在寻求年度报告反映突出财务约束的相关信息的可信度的证据方面具有若干意义。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Finance & Economics
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