International Journal of Finance & Economics最新文献

This study explores the effectiveness of technical and fundamental analysis in predicting and trading the returns of 12 cryptocurrencies, namely Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, Cardano, Avalanche, Binance Coin, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Litecoin, Terra and Solana. A universe of 7846 technical rules, five log moving average-based ratios and 59 fundamental factors are used to test predictability and profitability through the Lucky Factors methodology and Superior Predictive Ability test. We observe predictability for a small set of technical and fundamental rules, while only the short-term log moving average-based ratio and Hashrate Index demonstrate genuine in-sample and out-of-sample profitability. Our findings question the value of both technical and fundamental analysis on cryptocurrencies.

We examine the effects of the bankruptcy benefit and adverse events on the consumer bankruptcy decision. Employing zero-inflated ordered probit models and a unique longitudinal survey of approximately 66,000 individuals in Great Britain, we find that consumers are more likely to enter into bankruptcy proceedings when the bankruptcy benefit increases and when they become unemployed. We find that the effects of adverse events differ across bankruptcy types. Individuals who experience the onset of health problems are more likely to choose reorganization of debts (i.e., income gleaning), whereas individuals who get divorced or separated are more likely to prefer the discharge of debts (i.e., fresh start). We also examine access to credit after bankruptcy. We find that individuals are excluded from the credit markets post-bankruptcy and the impact differs across bankruptcy types. Credit exclusion for fresh starters is dramatic, swift but short-lived, while for income gleaners, it is gradual, slow but lasts longer.

We consider whether government bonds, through the term structure, or corporate bonds, through the default yield, provide predictive power for output, consumption and investment growth in the United States. Such predictive power will allow policy-makers to use the information as a leading indicator for macroeconomic performance and will improve our understanding of the links between real and financial markets. Full sample results suggest that both interest rate series exhibit predictive power for each of the macroeconomic growth series. Time-variation in the predictive coefficient reveals the waning influence of the term structure and the rising influence of the default yield. Forecast results, which are obtained from a rolling window approach, likewise suggest both series have information content for macroeconomic conditions, but there is a change in their relative strengths. These results may arise as interest rates have declined since the highs of the early to mid-1980s thus reducing the information content of government yields, whereas corporate bonds respond more to investor views of macroeconomic risk, which affects a firm's ability to repay its debt. Furthermore, short-term rates are largely held unprecedently low since the dotcom crash.

After the financial crisis, the Indian banking system has accumulated a mountain of bad loans which has crippled the banking sector and halted the credit flow to the industry. Several immediate causes for the bad loan crisis have been pointed out. However, poor market discipline, the ultimate root cause of the bad loan crisis, has not been paid adequate attention. This study seeks to investigate how effectively the market disciplinary forces, captured through information disclosure, interbank deposits, concentration and ownership structure, incentivise the Indian banks to adopt prudential risk management by enhancing their risk-weighted capital ratio. The findings of the study show that information disclosure and interbank deposits do not induce prudential risk behaviour among banks in India. However, with increasing concentration in the banking sector, a higher level of information disclosure effectively induces banks to maintain higher capital ratios, but inter-bank deposits do not have any significant effect on bank capital. We also observe that government banks maintain lower capital ratios as compared to private banks indicating government banks' higher expectation of government bailout.

This study argues that different definitions/perceptions of risk information could affect investors' decisions differently. Using a sample of 328 non-financial UK firms and departing from existing literature, this study measures corporate risk disclosure (RD) via computerized content analysis to capture four different perspectives of defining RD. This study investigates (i) the effects of these RD measures on the Cost of Capital (COC), (ii) the influence of analysts' coverage on the relationship between RD and COC, and (iii) whether the RD nature (favourable/unfavourable) might affect COC differently. Lenders and equity holders are found not to consider any risk information expressed as a variation around a target, while only lenders consider risk information that reveals negative outcomes. However, lenders and equity holders consider risk information that expresses negative and positive outcomes together. Besides, firms that disclose extra risk information and have a large analyst following suffer from a higher Cost of Equity (COE) compared with those with fewer analysts following. Additionally, lenders impose a lower interest rate on firms with a higher unfavourable RD, while equity holders ask for lower returns from the firms with a higher favourable RD. The study has significant implications for capital market participants, researchers, and policymakers.

In response to large pay disparities caused by rising CEO compensation and stagnant employee pay, US financial regulators have taken several initiatives to mobilise shareholders. However, the ability of these initiatives to enhance shareholder engagement and reduce excessive CEO compensation has been questioned. Using a large sample of 1594 non-financial firms from the Russell 3000 index over 2013–2019, we disentangle the complex role that shareholder engagement towards CEO-to-worker pay disparities plays on CEO compensation. We find that higher CEO-to-worker pay disparities increase shareholder dissent say on pay votes and that, paradoxically, shareholder dissent say on pay votes increase CEO compensation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that shareholder engagement mediates the relationship between CEO-to-worker pay disparities and CEO compensation through their say on pay votes. Our findings are consistent with the relative deprivation theory as shareholders react to large pay disparities to avoid the negative consequences of a feeling of deprivation on employees. They are also in line with the agency theory, as shareholder reactions to large CEO-to-worker pay disparities trigger reactions from the remuneration committee to better align CEO pay with their interests. Overall, our findings support the existence of a shareholder engagement channel driven by social comparison mechanisms and agency responses. This study has important implications for regulators by unpacking the usefulness of these regulatory initiatives to shareholders and also documenting their unintended consequences on CEO compensation.

This article investigates the effects of banking integration on banking competition in the ASEAN-6 countries. Using a data set of 3217 bank-year observations over the period 1996–2018, our main results indicate that: (i) banking openness positively affects banking competition; (ii) the overall degree of balanced (in/out) integration leads to greater market power; and (iii) the increase in the market monopoly following the participation of foreign banks can be reduced by good regulatory policies. These results remain intact when two alternative competition measures are employed and when a polynomial model and a threshold model are used to reveal the non-linear and heterogeneous effects of banking integration.

We utilise a standard reduced-form neo-Keynesian model in a monetary union, in which the monetary authority and the fiscal authorities strategically interact, to explore who, under alternative institutional arrangements (strategic and fiscal regimes) and shocks' configurations, bears the burden of asymmetric shocks' stabilisation. We show that in the core/periphery fiscal regime, described by an asymmetry in the sequence of moves between the core and the peripheral member-states, asymmetric shocks pass through at the union level to the inflation rate and the output gap when there are strategically significant spill-over effects and the monetary policy's and fiscal policies' instruments are not perfect substitutes in the stabilisation process. The monetary authority reacts to asymmetric shocks, but does not succeed in fully offsetting them. The first best implies the coordination of fiscal policies. A second best embraces the fiscal leadership strategic regime (as a form of implicit coordination), when there are strong interconnections in the union, or the use of policy instruments by the fiscal authorities that directly decrease inflation when fiscal policy is expansionary, such as taxes, production subsidies or public investment, when there is a strong cost channel of monetary policy.

We study the impact of different sources of global, regional and local uncertainty on the seven largest Scandinavian banks over the period 2005–2018. Using a spillover approach and network analysis, we find that Swedish banks are the main source of contagion in the region and spillovers tend to increase in times of heightened uncertainty. Global economic policy uncertainty, global financial uncertainty and local housing market uncertainty affect the Scandinavian banking sector the most. By contrast, geopolitical risk spillovers are limited.