Journal of Asian Economics最新文献

英文中文

Postponing retirement under age discrimination and grandparenting 因年龄歧视和祖父母而推迟退休

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102111

Leqing Huang

To tackle the population aging and improve the sustainability of the pension system, the Chinese government proposes to postpone the statutory retirement age gradually. However, when implementing this policy in China, age discrimination in the job market and grandchild care culture are two potential concerns. Therefore, this paper builds a multi-period OLG model with these two crucial factors to provide a quantitative evaluation of the potential policy impacts on population growth, labor supply, and pension funds. The framework allows for endogenous fertility and age-specific grandparenting. Taking an increase in childcare costs as an exogenous input, the model can well predict declining fertility both in level and trend. The results of the counterfactual analysis suggest that postponing retirement alleviates the pressure on the pension system over the next 50 years by reducing the number of retirees and increasing the size of the labor force. However, importantly, a five-year retirement delay could reduce fertility by more than twenty percent, which will affect the size of the labor force decades later and put additional long-run demographic pressure on the pension system. Regarding the intensive margin, postponing retirement will bring an extra flow of labor supply from old workers, while maintaining a comparatively high level of the participation among young generations due to the fertility adjustments.

为解决人口老龄化问题，提高养老金制度的可持续性，中国政府建议逐步推迟法定退休年龄。然而，在中国实施这一政策时，就业市场的年龄歧视和孙辈保育文化是两个潜在的问题。因此，本文结合这两个关键因素构建了一个多时期的OLG模型，定量评估政策对人口增长、劳动力供给和养老基金的潜在影响。该框架允许内生生育和特定年龄的祖父母。将育儿成本的增加作为外生输入，该模型可以较好地预测生育率下降的水平和趋势。反事实分析的结果表明，推迟退休可以通过减少退休人数和增加劳动力规模来缓解未来50年养老金制度的压力。然而，重要的是，推迟退休5年可能会使生育率降低20%以上，这将影响几十年后的劳动力规模，并给养老金制度带来额外的长期人口压力。在密集边际上，推迟退休将带来老年劳动力的额外劳动力供给流，同时由于生育率调整，年轻一代的参与率保持在较高水平。

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引用次数: 0

Changes in poverty of the rural elderly in China, 2002–2018 2002-2018年中国农村老年人贫困状况变化

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102110

Shi Li , Mengbing Zhu

Using data from the China Household Income Project (CHIP) for the years 2002, 2013 and 2018, we analyze changes in both absolute and relative poverty among the elderly population in rural China since the beginning of the century. Our analysis indicates that absolute poverty rates-measured based on the official poverty line-declined markedly from 31.19 % in 2002–2.69 % in 2018. In contrast, the incidence of relative poverty within this demographic demonstrated a pronounced upward trend over the same period. Notably, we provide evidence showing that poverty rates among the rural elderly, especially relative poverty rates, are much higher when healthcare expenditures are deducted from their income. Further investigation into the determinants of relative poverty reveals that social security programs, such as the New Rural Cooperative Medicare (NRCM) and the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS), have played a important role in alleviating relative poverty among the rural elderly, and remittances from out-migrants are important in lifting rural elderly people out of poverty.

利用中国家庭收入项目（CHIP） 2002年、2013年和2018年的数据，我们分析了本世纪初以来中国农村老年人口绝对贫困和相对贫困的变化。我们的分析表明，绝对贫困率（以官方贫困线衡量）从2002年的31.19 %显著下降至2018年的2.69 %。相比之下，这一人口中相对贫穷的发生率在同一时期显示出明显的上升趋势。值得注意的是，我们提供的证据表明，当从收入中扣除医疗支出时，农村老年人的贫困率，特别是相对贫困率要高得多。对相对贫困决定因素的进一步研究表明，新型农村合作医疗（NRCM）和新型农村养老保险（NRPS）等社会保障计划在减轻农村老年人相对贫困方面发挥了重要作用，外来移民汇款在帮助农村老年人摆脱贫困方面发挥了重要作用。

引用次数: 0

Oil price pass-through to inflation in emerging Asia 油价对亚洲新兴市场通胀的传导作用

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102103

John Beirne , Nuobu Renzhi

This paper provides estimates of oil price pass-through (OPPT) to both producer and consumer prices for nine emerging Asian economies using a time-varying parameter SVAR model over the period 1991–2023. We further examine how global factors affect the transmission of oil prices to producer and consumer prices, specifically via shocks in global output, US monetary policy, and global financial market uncertainty. Overall, we find that OPPT is less than proportionate and mostly higher for OPPT to producer than consumer prices, while pass-through estimates also tend to be higher in the long term. In addition, we find that OPPT has been declining for most Asian EMEs in the period after the global financial crisis of 2008. Finally, while the responsiveness of OPPT to global shocks varies depending on the type of shock, contractionary US monetary policy shocks overall most significantly amplify OPPT for both producer and consumer prices.

本文使用时变参数SVAR模型，对1991-2023年期间九个新兴亚洲经济体的石油价格传递（OPPT）对生产者和消费者价格的影响进行了估计。我们进一步研究了全球因素如何影响油价对生产者和消费者价格的传导，特别是通过全球产出的冲击、美国货币政策和全球金融市场的不确定性。总体而言，我们发现OPPT低于比例，而且生产者的OPPT大多高于消费者价格，而长期的传递估计也往往更高。此外，我们发现，在2008年全球金融危机之后的一段时间里，大多数亚洲新兴市场的OPPT一直在下降。最后，尽管OPPT对全球冲击的反应因冲击类型而异，但总体而言，紧缩的美国货币政策冲击最显著地放大了生产者价格和消费者价格的OPPT。

引用次数: 0

The long-run effect of light manufacturing expansion on human capital: Evidence from South Korea 轻工制造业扩张对人力资本的长期影响：来自韩国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102102

Jisu Yu

This paper estimates the effect of the Korean expansion of light manufacturing jobs in the 1960s on educational attainment using variation in exposure among 14-year-old cohorts. Findings indicate that higher exposure to the expansion of light manufacturing jobs in adolescence decreased schooling. Specifically, this reduction in schooling is attributed to a decline in middle school completion among girls and a decrease in both middle and high school completion among boys. These results provide evidence of the relationship between labor-intensive job expansion and human capital accumulation.

本文估计了韩国在20世纪60年代轻工制造业工作岗位的扩张对14岁年龄组受教育程度的影响。研究结果表明，在青少年时期接触更多的轻工制造业工作减少了上学时间。具体来说，受教育减少的原因是女孩中学毕业率的下降，以及男孩初中和高中毕业率的下降。这些结果为劳动密集型就业扩张与人力资本积累之间的关系提供了证据。

引用次数: 0

Impact of pension contribution rate reduction policies on labor productivity: Evidence from China 养老金缴费率下调政策对劳动生产率的影响：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102098

Jianqiang Li , Zhiyi Ge , Jingyi Yu , Jiatong Yao , Yan Xu

Our study investigates how provincial pension contribution rate reduction policies affect labor productivity of listed Chinese firms. Using a staggered difference-in-differences (DiD) framework, we find that these policies exert a significant negative impact on firms’ labor productivity. The results remain robust to multiple checks, including tests for parallel trends, dynamic average treatment effect (ATT) estimation, instrumental variable (IV) estimation, and the PSM-DiD approach. Mechanism analyses indicate that lower pension contributions reduce employees’ total compensation, which in turn affects firm productivity through three channels: declining workforce quality, a lower capital–labor ratio, and weakened innovation capacity. Heterogeneity analyses show that the adverse effects are more pronounced among firms operating in regions with higher unemployment, greater capital intensity, more educated employees, and lower profitability. Overall, our findings provide empirical support for both Efficiency Wage Theory and Capital-Labor Substitution Theory, highlighting the unintended incentive distortions that may arise from cost-reduction-oriented social security policies.

本文研究了省级养老金缴费率下调政策对我国上市公司劳动生产率的影响。利用交错差中差（DiD）框架，我们发现这些政策对企业劳动生产率产生了显著的负向影响。结果对多重检验保持稳健，包括平行趋势测试、动态平均处理效果（ATT）估计、工具变量（IV）估计和PSM-DiD方法。机制分析表明，较低的养老金缴费率降低了员工的总薪酬，进而通过劳动力素质下降、资本劳动比率降低和创新能力减弱三个渠道影响企业生产率。异质性分析表明，在失业率较高、资本密集度较高、员工受教育程度较高、盈利能力较低的地区，企业的不利影响更为明显。总体而言，我们的研究结果为效率工资理论和资本-劳动替代理论提供了实证支持，突出了以降低成本为导向的社会保障政策可能产生的意外激励扭曲。

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引用次数: 0

Tax incentives and corporate intelligent transformation: Evidence from China’s VAT Credit Refund Policy 税收优惠与企业智能化转型：来自中国增值税抵免政策的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102100

Mei Li, Chengkui Liu, Shibiao Zhou

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a pivotal technology driving future innovation, yet empirical evidence on how tax incentives foster corporate intelligent transformation remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by examining the impact of China’s VAT Credit Refund Policy (VATCRP) on corporate intelligent transformation. Using panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2014–2022) and the difference-in-differences model, we find that the VATCRP significantly promotes intelligent transformation. Mechanism analysis reveals this effect operates through two channels: resource effects, by easing liquidity constraints and expanding investment capacity, and innovation effects, by stimulating R&D and AI-related technological innovation. This positive impact is more pronounced for state-owned firms, larger firms, manufacturing firms, and more competitive industries. Further analysis shows that intelligent transformation optimizes employee structure, enhances productivity and management efficiency. Our findings offer crucial insights into how fiscal policies can effectively promote technological upgrading, providing valuable lessons for other developing economies navigating similar transitions.

人工智能（AI）是推动未来创新的关键技术，但关于税收优惠如何促进企业智能转型的实证证据仍然很少。本研究通过考察中国增值税抵免政策（VATCRP）对企业智能化转型的影响来解决这一差距。利用2014-2022年中国a股上市公司面板数据和差异中的差异模型，我们发现VATCRP显著促进了企业的智能化转型。机制分析表明，这种效应通过两个渠道发挥作用：一是资源效应，通过缓解流动性约束和扩大投资能力；二是创新效应，通过刺激研发和人工智能相关技术创新。这种积极影响对国有企业、大型企业、制造业企业和更具竞争力的行业更为明显。进一步分析表明，智能转型优化了员工结构，提高了生产力和管理效率。我们的研究结果为财政政策如何有效促进技术升级提供了重要见解，为其他正在经历类似转型的发展中经济体提供了宝贵的经验。

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引用次数: 0

Higher education expansion and labor market distortions: Micro evidence and possible mechanisms 高等教育扩张与劳动力市场扭曲：微观证据与可能机制

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102101

Jiawu Dai , Juan Li , Qiong Zhang

China’s dramatic expansion of higher education since the late 1990s has significantly impacted its labor market. Utilizing firm-level microdata and a difference-in-differences model, this paper reveals that the expansion notably reduced labor market distortions. This finding remains consistent even after various robustness checks. Our heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the expansion's mitigating effect on labor market distortions was more evident in regions and industries with lower intensities of higher education expansion, as well as among large and medium-sized enterprises, those with a high market share, and state-owned enterprises. Additionally, our mechanism analysis demonstrates that the expansion primarily eased labor market distortions through wage convergence effect among different groups. Based on these findings, we recommend that China vigorously pursues the high-quality advancement of both higher and vocational education, facilitates the establishment of a nationally unified labor market through market-driven reforms of production factors, and elevates the overall level of human capital. Other developing economies facing institutional constraints can also draw lessons from this path to achieve synergistic improvements in human capital accumulation and market efficiency.

自20世纪90年代末以来，中国高等教育的急剧扩张对其劳动力市场产生了重大影响。利用企业层面的微观数据和差异中的差异模型，本文揭示了扩张显著减少了劳动力市场扭曲。即使经过各种稳健性检查，这一发现仍然是一致的。我们的异质性分析进一步表明，高等教育扩张对劳动力市场扭曲的缓解作用在高等教育扩张强度较低的地区和行业、大中型企业、高市场份额企业和国有企业中更为明显。此外，我们的机制分析表明，经济扩张主要通过不同群体之间的工资趋同效应缓解劳动力市场扭曲。基于这些发现，我们建议中国大力推进高等教育和职业教育的高质量发展，通过生产要素市场化改革，促进建立全国统一的劳动力市场，提升人力资本的整体水平。其他面临体制限制的发展中经济体也可以从这条道路中吸取教训，实现人力资本积累和市场效率的协同改善。

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引用次数: 0

Does Nepal’s inflation converge with India’s inflation? 尼泊尔的通货膨胀是否与印度的通货膨胀趋同？

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102099

Birendra B. Budha

This paper investigates whether Nepal’s inflation converges with India’s inflation and examines the effect of India’s prices on Nepal’s price level using monthly data for the period 1974–2024. The paper finds that Nepal’s inflation converges with India’s inflation, and the effect of India’s CPI persists up to 10 months on Nepal’s CPI, and up to 22 months on Nepal’s food CPI. The mechanisms of inflation convergence include high trade integration, high labor mobility and wage convergence, and the peg of the Nepalese Rupee with the Indian Rupee. The paper also finds the convergence in wage growth between Nepal and India. These findings imply that the current exchange rate peg is working well as a nominal anchor of Nepal’s monetary policy in maintaining monetary stability.

本文研究了尼泊尔的通货膨胀是否与印度的通货膨胀趋同，并使用1974-2024年期间的月度数据检验了印度价格对尼泊尔价格水平的影响。本文发现，尼泊尔的通货膨胀与印度的通货膨胀趋同，印度CPI对尼泊尔CPI的影响持续长达10个月，对尼泊尔食品CPI的影响持续长达22个月。通货膨胀趋同的机制包括贸易高度一体化、劳动力高流动性和工资趋同以及尼泊尔卢比与印度卢比的挂钩。本文还发现尼泊尔和印度的工资增长趋同。这些发现意味着，目前的汇率挂钩作为尼泊尔货币政策的名义锚，在维持货币稳定方面发挥了很好的作用。

引用次数: 0

Climate policy uncertainty, environmental risk aversion, and import structure adjustment 气候政策不确定性、环境风险规避与进口结构调整

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102096

Xiaosong Wang , Siyuan Tian , Yuding Zhou , Le Li

Against the backdrop of an increasingly severe global climate crisis, climate change and climate governance have emerged as critical factors shaping the global economic landscape. As nations increasingly adopt climate policies to address climate change, the uncertainty surrounding policy formulation, implementation, and potential adjustments poses new challenges to firm’s production and trade practices. This study investigates the impact of uncertainty stemming from climate policy volatility on regional import structures. Utilizing a climate policy uncertainty index constructed through deep learning models, our mathematical modeling and empirical analysis reveal that increases in climate policy uncertainty significantly raise intermediate goods imports in high-pollution industries, as reflected in both extensive and intensive margins. Multiple robustness checks confirm the reliability of the findings. Heterogeneity analysis indicates more pronounced effects in samples with higher contract intensity and more concentrated import markets. Mechanism test suggests that climate policy uncertainty drives firms toward import substitution strategies to mitigate environmental risks by increasing local production costs and reducing investment incentives. Further analysis shows that climate policy uncertainty also significantly reduces export competitiveness in high-pollution industries. Amid growing global concerns over environmental protection and climate issues, this research not only provides insights into the complex interactions between climate policies and international trade, but also offers policy implications for climate and trade policy.

在全球气候危机日益严重的背景下，气候变化和气候治理已成为影响全球经济格局的关键因素。随着各国越来越多地采取气候政策来应对气候变化，围绕政策制定、实施和潜在调整的不确定性给企业的生产和贸易实践带来了新的挑战。本研究探讨了气候政策波动带来的不确定性对区域进口结构的影响。利用深度学习模型构建的气候政策不确定性指数，我们的数学建模和实证分析表明，气候政策不确定性的增加显著提高了高污染行业的中间产品进口，这反映在粗放型和集约型利润上。多重稳健性检查证实了研究结果的可靠性。异质性分析表明，契约强度越高、进口市场越集中的样本，其效应越显著。机制检验表明，气候政策的不确定性促使企业采取进口替代策略，通过提高本地生产成本和降低投资激励来降低环境风险。进一步分析表明，气候政策的不确定性也显著降低了高污染行业的出口竞争力。在全球对环境保护和气候问题日益关注的背景下，本研究不仅为气候政策与国际贸易之间复杂的相互作用提供了深刻的见解，而且为气候和贸易政策提供了政策启示。

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The impact of Vocational Skills Training of Public Employment Services on off-farm employment: Evidence from rural China 公共就业服务机构职业技能培训对非农就业的影响：来自中国农村的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102095

Xuanye Zeng , Yunli Bai , Jiaojiao Wu , Yutong Qiu , Linxiu Zhang

The Chinese government has implemented Vocational Skills Training through Public Employment Services (VST-PES) to facilitate rural labor’s off-farm employment participation and quality. However, the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these initiatives remains limited. This study investigates the implementation of VST-PES in rural China and assesses its impact on rural labor’s off-farm employment participation rate and quality. Using the 2023 data of 4447 rural labor from a national representative sample across 100 villages in 5 provinces, we employ Probit/OLS regression, Propensity Score Matching method, and Heckman two-step model. The results consistently reveal that VST-PES implementation in rural China suffered from limited coverage, short duration, inadequate incentives, and supply-demand mismatches. While VST-PES significantly increased off-farm employment participation rate, particularly for females and middle-aged rural labor, it had no significant impact on off-farm employment quality. These findings suggest that the Chinese government should enhance the implementation of VST-PES in rural areas to increase the inclusiveness of labor market and pay high attention to improve its effects on off-farm employment quality among rural labor.

中国政府实施公共就业服务职业技能培训，促进农村劳动力非农就业参与率和就业质量提高。然而，关于这些举措有效性的经验证据仍然有限。本研究考察了VST-PES在中国农村的实施情况，并评估了其对农村劳动力非农就业参与率和质量的影响。本文采用Probit/OLS回归、倾向得分匹配法和Heckman两步模型，对中国5个省100个村的4447名农村劳动力的2023年数据进行分析。结果一致表明，VST-PES在中国农村的实施存在覆盖范围有限、持续时间短、激励机制不足和供需不匹配等问题。虽然VST-PES显著提高了非农就业参与率，尤其是女性和农村中年劳动力的非农就业参与率，但对非农就业质量没有显著影响。这些研究结果表明，中国政府应加强在农村地区实施VST-PES，以增加劳动力市场的包容性，并高度重视提高其对农村劳动力非农就业质量的影响。

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