Journal of Asian Economics最新文献_第2页

Multidimensional Risks and the cleaner production-oriented trade transformation in the China–ASEAN 多维风险与中国-东盟清洁生产贸易转型

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102128

Yuhan Liu , Xiangzheng Deng , JI Hong Min , Jing Wang , Yijie Liu

The transformation toward cleaner production-oriented trade (CPOTT) is increasingly influenced by macro-level uncertainties, however, the mechanisms linking risk exposure to green trade upgrading remain unclear. This study examines how political, economic, social, and technological risks affect CPOTT in the China–ASEAN region, and how these effects are conditioned by policy coordination and technological adaptation. Using panel data for eleven countries from 2002 to 2022, we combine fixed-effects regressions and Cox proportional hazards models to identify both static and time-dependent dynamics. The results show that political, economic, and technological risks accelerate CPOTT, indicating a risk-induced adaptation mechanism in which external volatility prompts institutional reform and comparative advantage reallocation. Social risk, however, constrains transformation by weakening absorptive capacity. Policy coordination stabilizes expectations but weakens risk-induced reform incentives, while technological adaptation strengthens resilience only when embedded within institutional frameworks. These findings demonstrate that the effects of risk on green trade are conditional and context-dependent. This study contributes to a risk–resilience–transformation perspective and highlights that sustainable trade upgrading requires institutional architectures that preserve reform incentives under uncertainty and strengthen cross-border innovation spillovers.

向以清洁生产为导向的贸易转型日益受到宏观不确定性的影响，但风险暴露与绿色贸易升级之间的联系机制尚不明确。本研究探讨了政治、经济、社会和技术风险对中国-东盟地区CPOTT的影响，以及这些影响如何受到政策协调和技术适应的制约。利用2002年至2022年11个国家的面板数据，我们将固定效应回归和Cox比例风险模型结合起来，以确定静态和时间相关的动态。结果表明，政治、经济和技术风险加速了CPOTT的发展，表明了外部波动推动制度改革和比较优势再分配的风险诱导适应机制。然而，社会风险通过削弱吸收能力来制约转型。政策协调稳定了预期，但削弱了风险引发的改革激励，而技术适应只有在嵌入制度框架时才能增强韧性。这些研究结果表明，风险对绿色贸易的影响是有条件的和依赖于环境的。本研究提出了风险复原力-转型视角，强调可持续贸易升级需要在不确定性下保持改革激励并加强跨境创新溢出的制度架构。

{"title":"Multidimensional Risks and the cleaner production-oriented trade transformation in the China–ASEAN","authors":"Yuhan Liu , Xiangzheng Deng , JI Hong Min , Jing Wang , Yijie Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102128","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102128","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The transformation toward cleaner production-oriented trade (CPOTT) is increasingly influenced by macro-level uncertainties, however, the mechanisms linking risk exposure to green trade upgrading remain unclear. This study examines how political, economic, social, and technological risks affect CPOTT in the China–ASEAN region, and how these effects are conditioned by policy coordination and technological adaptation. Using panel data for eleven countries from 2002 to 2022, we combine fixed-effects regressions and Cox proportional hazards models to identify both static and time-dependent dynamics. The results show that political, economic, and technological risks accelerate CPOTT, indicating a risk-induced adaptation mechanism in which external volatility prompts institutional reform and comparative advantage reallocation. Social risk, however, constrains transformation by weakening absorptive capacity. Policy coordination stabilizes expectations but weakens risk-induced reform incentives, while technological adaptation strengthens resilience only when embedded within institutional frameworks. These findings demonstrate that the effects of risk on green trade are conditional and context-dependent. This study contributes to a risk–resilience–transformation perspective and highlights that sustainable trade upgrading requires institutional architectures that preserve reform incentives under uncertainty and strengthen cross-border innovation spillovers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102128"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421554","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

How does internet use promote off-farm employment of rural laborers in China 互联网的使用如何促进中国农村劳动力的非农就业

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102139

Ping Xue , Wei Jia

Boosting off-farm employment is an active strategy for developing countries to achieve economic growth and reduce income inequality. The internet has become an effective information tool for agricultural production and off-farm employment. This study uses the conditional mixed regression method and data gathered from ten Chinese provinces in 2021 and 2022. It investigates whether internet use promotes rural household laborers’ off-farm employment quantity and quality. The results show that internet use significantly enhances the off-farm employment quantity and quality among rural households. Specifically, compared with rural households that do not use the internet, those that use the internet increase the likelihood of the decision to participate and the intensity of participation in off-farm employment of rural households by 17.5 and 11.6 %age points, respectively. Furthermore, off-farm employment days and wages increase by 23.9% and 7.7%, respectively. It positively affects off-farm employment through an agricultural mechanization mechanism. Additionally, the effects are more pronounced among rural households that have more off-farm employment days, receive lower off-farm employment wages, are large-scale, and without dependency burden.

促进非农就业是发展中国家实现经济增长和减少收入不平等的积极战略。互联网已成为农业生产和非农就业的有效信息工具。本研究采用条件混合回归方法，选取了中国10个省份2021年和2022年的数据。考察互联网的使用是否促进了农村家庭劳动力非农就业的数量和质量。结果表明，互联网的使用显著提高了农户非农就业的数量和质量。具体而言，与不使用互联网的农户相比，使用互联网的农户参与非农就业的决策可能性和参与强度分别提高了17.5%和11.6%的年龄点。此外，非农就业天数和工资分别增长了23.9%和7.7%。它通过农业机械化机制对非农就业产生积极影响。此外，在非农就业天数较多、非农就业工资较低、规模较大、无抚养负担的农户中，这种影响更为明显。

{"title":"How does internet use promote off-farm employment of rural laborers in China","authors":"Ping Xue , Wei Jia","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102139","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102139","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Boosting off-farm employment is an active strategy for developing countries to achieve economic growth and reduce income inequality. The internet has become an effective information tool for agricultural production and off-farm employment. This study uses the conditional mixed regression method and data gathered from ten Chinese provinces in 2021 and 2022. It investigates whether internet use promotes rural household laborers’ off-farm employment quantity and quality. The results show that internet use significantly enhances the off-farm employment quantity and quality among rural households. Specifically, compared with rural households that do not use the internet, those that use the internet increase the likelihood of the decision to participate and the intensity of participation in off-farm employment of rural households by 17.5 and 11.6 %age points, respectively. Furthermore, off-farm employment days and wages increase by 23.9% and 7.7%, respectively. It positively affects off-farm employment through an agricultural mechanization mechanism. Additionally, the effects are more pronounced among rural households that have more off-farm employment days, receive lower off-farm employment wages, are large-scale, and without dependency burden.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102139"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Macroeconomic effects of monetary combination policy in China: The Generalized New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an open economy 中国货币组合政策的宏观经济效应：开放经济条件下广义新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102149

Suhua Tian , Li Wang , Yonghan Zhao

This study builds a New Keynesian model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of the monetary combination policy in China and obtains a Generalized New Keynesian Phillips Curve, which demonstrates that the nominal exchange rate is of great importance for the gross inflation rate. The numerical simulation yields three main results. First, expansionary monetary policy exhibits delayed stimulative effects on macroeconomic activity while simultaneously inducing volatility. Second, when the central bank implements an expansionary monetary policy with sterilization interventions, the economy exhibits immediate output growth alongside reduced volatility. However, the stabilizing effect of sterilization gradually diminishes at the margin. As sterilization intensity increases, the elasticity of macroeconomic variables to policy shocks declines proportionally. Third, under a flexible exchange rate regime with wide fluctuation bands, the inflation rate exhibits a strong impulse response to the monetary combination policy shock, with the exchange rate channel playing a significant transmission role in the inflation dynamics.

本文通过建立新凯恩斯模型分析中国货币组合政策的宏观经济效应，得到广义新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线，该曲线表明名义汇率对总通货膨胀率具有重要影响。数值模拟得到了三个主要结果。首先，扩张性货币政策对宏观经济活动表现出延迟刺激效应，同时引发波动性。其次，当央行实施扩张性货币政策并进行冲销干预时，经济表现出即时的产出增长，同时波动性降低。但是，灭菌的稳定作用在边际上逐渐减弱。随着冲销强度的增加，宏观经济变量对政策冲击的弹性成比例地下降。第三，在浮动区间较宽的弹性汇率制度下，通货膨胀率对货币组合政策冲击表现出强烈的脉冲响应，汇率渠道在通货膨胀动态中起着重要的传导作用。

{"title":"Macroeconomic effects of monetary combination policy in China: The Generalized New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an open economy","authors":"Suhua Tian , Li Wang , Yonghan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102149","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102149","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study builds a New Keynesian model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of the monetary combination policy in China and obtains a Generalized New Keynesian Phillips Curve, which demonstrates that the nominal exchange rate is of great importance for the gross inflation rate. The numerical simulation yields three main results. First, expansionary monetary policy exhibits delayed stimulative effects on macroeconomic activity while simultaneously inducing volatility. Second, when the central bank implements an expansionary monetary policy with sterilization interventions, the economy exhibits immediate output growth alongside reduced volatility. However, the stabilizing effect of sterilization gradually diminishes at the margin. As sterilization intensity increases, the elasticity of macroeconomic variables to policy shocks declines proportionally. Third, under a flexible exchange rate regime with wide fluctuation bands, the inflation rate exhibits a strong impulse response to the monetary combination policy shock, with the exchange rate channel playing a significant transmission role in the inflation dynamics.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102149"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421551","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital infrastructure and cognitive gap among children: Evidence from China 数字基础设施与儿童认知差距：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102125

Ge Tian , Zi Yang , Xun Zhang

This paper examines how large-scale digital infrastructure affects children’s cognitive ability and exacerbates cognitive disparities among them. Leveraging the rollout of the “Broadband China” initiative, we construct an intensity difference-in-differences (DID) model and utilize panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). Our results show that the expansion of digital infrastructure significantly impairs children’s cognitive development, with the adverse effects disproportionately concentrated among rural, especially left-behind children. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital infrastructure weakens the income channel for left-behind children, as it does not lead to significantly higher earnings for their migrant parents compared to non-left-behind counterparts, and any income gains are less likely to be invested in education. It also distorts the knowledge acquisition channel, as left-behind children—due to reduced educational expectations—are less likely to leverage digital resources for learning. Furthermore, the entertainment channel is intensified by limited parental supervision, making left-behind children more vulnerable to excessive online entertainment. We further explore policy interventions that may mitigate these negative impacts. Our findings suggest that digital infrastructure, in the absence of complementary safeguards, can reinforce existing inequalities—highlighting the need for targeted support policies in the digital era

本文探讨了大规模数字基础设施如何影响儿童的认知能力，并加剧了儿童之间的认知差异。利用“宽带中国”计划的推出，我们构建了一个强度差中差（DID）模型，并利用了中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）的面板数据。我们的研究结果表明，数字基础设施的扩张显著损害了儿童的认知发展，负面影响不成比例地集中在农村儿童，尤其是留守儿童。机制分析表明，数字基础设施削弱了留守儿童的收入渠道，因为与非留守儿童相比，数字基础设施并没有使其流动父母的收入显著提高，而且任何收入增长都不太可能投资于教育。它还扭曲了知识获取渠道，因为留守儿童由于教育期望降低，不太可能利用数字资源进行学习。此外，由于父母监督有限，娱乐渠道被强化，使留守儿童更容易受到过度网络娱乐的影响。我们将进一步探讨可能减轻这些负面影响的政策干预措施。我们的研究结果表明，在缺乏补充保障的情况下，数字基础设施可能会加剧现有的不平等现象，这凸显了数字时代有针对性的支持政策的必要性

{"title":"Digital infrastructure and cognitive gap among children: Evidence from China","authors":"Ge Tian , Zi Yang , Xun Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how large-scale digital infrastructure affects children’s cognitive ability and exacerbates cognitive disparities among them. Leveraging the rollout of the “Broadband China” initiative, we construct an intensity difference-in-differences (DID) model and utilize panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). Our results show that the expansion of digital infrastructure significantly impairs children’s cognitive development, with the adverse effects disproportionately concentrated among rural, especially left-behind children. Mechanism analysis reveals that digital infrastructure weakens the income channel for left-behind children, as it does not lead to significantly higher earnings for their migrant parents compared to non-left-behind counterparts, and any income gains are less likely to be invested in education. It also distorts the knowledge acquisition channel, as left-behind children—due to reduced educational expectations—are less likely to leverage digital resources for learning. Furthermore, the entertainment channel is intensified by limited parental supervision, making left-behind children more vulnerable to excessive online entertainment. We further explore policy interventions that may mitigate these negative impacts. Our findings suggest that digital infrastructure, in the absence of complementary safeguards, can reinforce existing inequalities—highlighting the need for targeted support policies in the digital era</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102125"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145929247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Oil price pass-through to inflation in emerging Asia 油价对亚洲新兴市场通胀的传导作用

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102103

John Beirne , Nuobu Renzhi

This paper provides estimates of oil price pass-through (OPPT) to both producer and consumer prices for nine emerging Asian economies using a time-varying parameter SVAR model over the period 1991–2023. We further examine how global factors affect the transmission of oil prices to producer and consumer prices, specifically via shocks in global output, US monetary policy, and global financial market uncertainty. Overall, we find that OPPT is less than proportionate and mostly higher for OPPT to producer than consumer prices, while pass-through estimates also tend to be higher in the long term. In addition, we find that OPPT has been declining for most Asian EMEs in the period after the global financial crisis of 2008. Finally, while the responsiveness of OPPT to global shocks varies depending on the type of shock, contractionary US monetary policy shocks overall most significantly amplify OPPT for both producer and consumer prices.

本文使用时变参数SVAR模型，对1991-2023年期间九个新兴亚洲经济体的石油价格传递（OPPT）对生产者和消费者价格的影响进行了估计。我们进一步研究了全球因素如何影响油价对生产者和消费者价格的传导，特别是通过全球产出的冲击、美国货币政策和全球金融市场的不确定性。总体而言，我们发现OPPT低于比例，而且生产者的OPPT大多高于消费者价格，而长期的传递估计也往往更高。此外，我们发现，在2008年全球金融危机之后的一段时间里，大多数亚洲新兴市场的OPPT一直在下降。最后，尽管OPPT对全球冲击的反应因冲击类型而异，但总体而言，紧缩的美国货币政策冲击最显著地放大了生产者价格和消费者价格的OPPT。

引用次数: 0

Growth matters, but so does its composition: An empirical study on India's multidimensional poverty, 1995–2021 增长很重要，但其构成也很重要：关于印度多维贫困的实证研究，1995-2021

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102133

Yanxi Bao , Tingxuan Liao

The sectoral composition of economic growth plays a pivotal role in shaping poverty outcomes, yet its influence on multidimensional poverty remains underexplored. Using state-level panel data from India for the period 1995–2021, this study investigates the relationship between economic growth—both aggregate and sectoral—and multidimensional poverty. To address endogeneity in aggregate growth, we employ an instrumental variables strategy and estimate a growth elasticity of multidimensional poverty between −1.4 and −1.6, suggesting moderate multidimensionally inclusiveness of India's growth process. However, this result demonstrates markedly sectoral heterogeneity: manufacturing and services—especially financial and non-market services—are significantly correlated with multidimensional poverty, whereas agriculture exhibits minimal impact. Further mechanism analysis reveals that manufacturing-led growth contributes to poverty reduction through two key channels: a narrowing gender income gap and declining child dependency ratios. These effects are particularly pronounced in reducing the share of out-of-school and nutritionally deprived children living in multidimensionally poor households.

经济增长的部门构成在形成贫困结果方面发挥着关键作用，但其对多维贫困的影响仍未得到充分探讨。本研究利用印度1995-2021年期间的邦级面板数据，调查了经济增长（包括总量和部门）与多维贫困之间的关系。为了解决总体增长的内生性问题，我们采用了工具变量策略，并估计了多维贫困的增长弹性在- 1.4和- 1.6之间，这表明印度的增长过程具有适度的多维包容性。然而，这一结果显示了明显的部门异质性：制造业和服务业——尤其是金融和非市场服务业——与多维贫困显著相关，而农业的影响最小。进一步的机制分析表明，制造业主导的增长通过缩小性别收入差距和降低儿童抚养比两个关键渠道有助于减贫。这些影响在减少生活在多方面贫困家庭中的失学和营养不良儿童的比例方面尤为明显。

{"title":"Growth matters, but so does its composition: An empirical study on India's multidimensional poverty, 1995–2021","authors":"Yanxi Bao , Tingxuan Liao","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102133","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102133","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The sectoral composition of economic growth plays a pivotal role in shaping poverty outcomes, yet its influence on multidimensional poverty remains underexplored. Using state-level panel data from India for the period 1995–2021, this study investigates the relationship between economic growth—both aggregate and sectoral—and multidimensional poverty. To address endogeneity in aggregate growth, we employ an instrumental variables strategy and estimate a growth elasticity of multidimensional poverty between −1.4 and −1.6, suggesting moderate multidimensionally inclusiveness of India's growth process. However, this result demonstrates markedly sectoral heterogeneity: manufacturing and services—especially financial and non-market services—are significantly correlated with multidimensional poverty, whereas agriculture exhibits minimal impact. Further mechanism analysis reveals that manufacturing-led growth contributes to poverty reduction through two key channels: a narrowing gender income gap and declining child dependency ratios. These effects are particularly pronounced in reducing the share of out-of-school and nutritionally deprived children living in multidimensionally poor households.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102133"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146078945","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Public expenditure, housing value and wealth redistribution theory: Evidence from China’s urbanization 公共支出、住房价值与财富再分配理论：来自中国城市化的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102146

Ping Zhang , Jian Wu , Andong Zhuge , Bo Li

China’s household wealth is experiencing rapid growth and has emerged as a significant force on the global stage. Although the government has played a crucial role in driving economic growth and facilitating wealth accumulation, limited research has thus far explored the mechanisms through which government expenditure reallocates household wealth during the process of urbanization in China. We utilize data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) household survey (2010–2018) and prefecture-level datasets to estimate the impact of government expenditure on household wealth, with a particular focus on housing wealth. By employing the “Province-Managing-County” fiscal reform as a quasi-natural experiment and using a historical instrumental variable, we identify a robust link between public expenditure and wealth accumulation. Our findings reveal that the capitalization of government expenditure plays a vital role in housing value appreciation, accounting for over 55 % of total household wealth. Moreover, the impact of government expenditure on household wealth has a pronounced redistributive effect. Specifically, government expenditures significantly enhance the net worth of homeowners, particularly those who own two or more properties, while having a minimal impact on households consisting of rental tenants. And the gains from the appreciation of housing assets are more concentrated among early home buyers. In the absence of a property tax system, the redistributive effect of government expenditures on household wealth has exacerbated social inequality.

中国的家庭财富正在快速增长，并已成为全球舞台上的一支重要力量。尽管政府在推动经济增长和促进财富积累方面发挥了至关重要的作用，但迄今为止，对中国城市化进程中政府支出如何重新分配家庭财富的研究有限。我们利用中国家庭面板研究（CFPS）家庭调查（2010-2018）和地级数据集的数据来估计政府支出对家庭财富的影响，特别关注住房财富。通过采用“省-管-县”财政改革作为准自然实验，并使用历史工具变量，我们确定了公共支出与财富积累之间的强大联系。我们的研究结果表明，政府支出的资本化在住房价值升值中起着至关重要的作用，占家庭总财富的55% %以上。此外，政府支出对家庭财富的影响具有明显的再分配效应。具体来说，政府支出显著提高了房主的净资产，特别是那些拥有两处或更多房产的房主，而对由租房者组成的家庭的影响微乎其微。住房资产升值带来的收益更多地集中在早期购房者手中。在没有财产税制度的情况下，政府支出对家庭财富的再分配效应加剧了社会不平等。

{"title":"Public expenditure, housing value and wealth redistribution theory: Evidence from China’s urbanization","authors":"Ping Zhang , Jian Wu , Andong Zhuge , Bo Li","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102146","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102146","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>China’s household wealth is experiencing rapid growth and has emerged as a significant force on the global stage. Although the government has played a crucial role in driving economic growth and facilitating wealth accumulation, limited research has thus far explored the mechanisms through which government expenditure reallocates household wealth during the process of urbanization in China. We utilize data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) household survey (2010–2018) and prefecture-level datasets to estimate the impact of government expenditure on household wealth, with a particular focus on housing wealth. By employing the “Province-Managing-County” fiscal reform as a quasi-natural experiment and using a historical instrumental variable, we identify a robust link between public expenditure and wealth accumulation. Our findings reveal that the capitalization of government expenditure plays a vital role in housing value appreciation, accounting for over 55 % of total household wealth. Moreover, the impact of government expenditure on household wealth has a pronounced redistributive effect. Specifically, government expenditures significantly enhance the net worth of homeowners, particularly those who own two or more properties, while having a minimal impact on households consisting of rental tenants. And the gains from the appreciation of housing assets are more concentrated among early home buyers. In the absence of a property tax system, the redistributive effect of government expenditures on household wealth has exacerbated social inequality.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102146"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421547","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Stock market performance of exporting firms during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from South Korea COVID-19大流行期间出口企业的股市表现：来自韩国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102137

Jeongsim Kim

Korean exports mirrored global economic fluctuations during the COVID-19 crisis through regular factory operations because Korea did not impose a nationwide lockdown. Using data on Korean exporting firms, we investigate whether export intensity, firm size, and financial strength affected stock returns during the pandemic from January 2, 2020, to December 30, 2020. We find that the stock returns of exporting firms were influenced more by the global spread of COVID-19 than by its regional spread in China. Furthermore, higher export-intensity firms generally outperformed lower export-intensity firms during the crisis, except for the period of panic caused by the global spread of COVID-19. We also find that small-market capitalization stocks were more volatile and adversely affected than large-market capitalization stocks during both the stock market crash in March and the plunge in exports in April. Finally, we observe that while cash holdings had a positive impact on stock returns during the market crash in March, they had a negative impact on stock returns during the market boom in December.

在新冠疫情期间，韩国没有实施封锁措施，通过工厂正常运营，反映了世界经济的波动。利用韩国出口企业的数据，我们调查了2020年1月2日至2020年12月30日大流行期间，出口强度、企业规模和财务实力是否影响了股票回报。我们发现，出口企业的股票收益受新冠肺炎全球传播的影响大于其在中国的区域传播的影响。此外，在危机期间，高出口强度企业的表现普遍优于低出口强度企业，但COVID-19全球蔓延造成的恐慌时期除外。我们还发现，在3月份的股市崩盘和4月份的出口暴跌期间，小市值股票比大市值股票波动更大，受到的不利影响也更大。最后，我们观察到，虽然现金持有量在3月份市场崩盘期间对股票回报有积极影响，但在12月份市场繁荣期间对股票回报有负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Institutional investor horizons and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China 机构投资者的视野和分析师盈利预测的乐观：来自中国的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102147

Fanjie Fu , Jing Fang , Mei Yang , Shujie Yao , Chuan Lin

This paper investigates the impact of institutional investor horizons on analysts' optimistic bias using data from China's listed firm-level panel from 2007 to 2019. It was discovered that institutional investor horizons significantly reduce analysts' optimistic bias. After accounting for sample selection bias and potential endogeneity, the results remain robust. The mechanism test demonstrates that long-term institutional investors use their own preference and monitoring effect on firms to influence analysts' optimism through their relationships with listed firms and security companies (such as shareholders and clients), thereby reducing conflicts of interest between management and analysts, as well as between employers and analysts. Furthermore, long-term institutional investors may use their advantages in information gathering to dampen analyst optimism. Increased institutional investor horizons strengthen their supervisory role, diminishing analyst optimism in the sample that long-term institutional investors are more dominant and professional. The monitoring effect is stronger in the sample with large cliques, low-level herding behavior, and weak competition for information among institutional investors.

本文利用2007 - 2019年中国上市公司层面的面板数据，研究了机构投资者视野对分析师乐观偏见的影响。研究发现，机构投资者视野显著降低了分析师的乐观倾向。在考虑了样本选择偏差和潜在的内生性后，结果仍然是稳健的。机制检验表明，长期机构投资者通过其与上市公司和证券公司（如股东和客户）的关系，利用自身的偏好和对公司的监控效应影响分析师的乐观情绪，从而减少管理层与分析师之间、雇主与分析师之间的利益冲突。此外，长期机构投资者可能会利用他们在信息收集方面的优势来抑制分析师的乐观情绪。机构投资者视野的扩大加强了他们的监管作用，削弱了样本中分析师的乐观情绪，即长期机构投资者更占主导地位，更专业。在小集团大、羊群行为低、机构投资者信息竞争弱的样本中，监测效果更强。

{"title":"Institutional investor horizons and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from China","authors":"Fanjie Fu , Jing Fang , Mei Yang , Shujie Yao , Chuan Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102147","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102147","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the impact of institutional investor horizons on analysts' optimistic bias using data from China's listed firm-level panel from 2007 to 2019. It was discovered that institutional investor horizons significantly reduce analysts' optimistic bias. After accounting for sample selection bias and potential endogeneity, the results remain robust. The mechanism test demonstrates that long-term institutional investors use their own preference and monitoring effect on firms to influence analysts' optimism through their relationships with listed firms and security companies (such as shareholders and clients), thereby reducing conflicts of interest between management and analysts, as well as between employers and analysts. Furthermore, long-term institutional investors may use their advantages in information gathering to dampen analyst optimism. Increased institutional investor horizons strengthen their supervisory role, diminishing analyst optimism in the sample that long-term institutional investors are more dominant and professional. The monitoring effect is stronger in the sample with large cliques, low-level herding behavior, and weak competition for information among institutional investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102147"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421533","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Digital finance and high-quality economic development: Evidence from Chinese municipal data 数字金融与高质量经济发展：来自中国城市数据的证据

IF 3.4 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Asian Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102136

Jing Wu , Chee Yoong Liew , Dong Ya Ji

Under the twin conditions of global digitalization and low-carbon, the process by which advanced technological tools such as digital finance (DF) promote the shift from a traditional real economy towards innovation-led and low-carbon circular economies is gaining much scholarly interest. We investigate how DF impacts high-quality economic development (HED) in Chinese municipalities during 2011–2023 with the help of the Peking University digital financial inclusion index and the China Urban statistical year book. Dimensions include industrial structure, total-factor productivity, technological innovation, environmental situation, and the life of residents. From the methodology view point, difference-in-differences and two-stage least square instrumental variables methods are adopted to resolve endogeneity problems and get robust research results. From our results, we can observe that DF plays an important role on HED and financial development (FD) is a positive moderator of this relationship. On the contrary, excessive government intervention (GI) becomes a negative moderating variable, which is limiting in the case of market efficiency and innovation. Our study has also reported that the effect of DF on HED is heterogeneous across different regions in China. Hence, based on our research results, there is a strong need for policy customization in different regions in China to ensure maximum benefits of the implementation of DF. Our results indicate the importance of DF in promoting sustainable economic growth, particularly in developing countries, such as China.

在全球数字化和低碳的双重条件下，数字金融等先进技术工具推动传统实体经济向创新驱动、低碳循环经济转变的过程备受学术界关注。本文借助北京大学数字普惠金融指数和《中国城市统计年鉴》，研究了2011-2023年金融融通对中国城市高质量经济发展的影响。维度包括产业结构、全要素生产率、技术创新、环境状况和居民生活。从方法学的角度来看，采用差中差法和两阶段最小二乘工具变量法解决了内生性问题，得到了稳健的研究结果。从我们的研究结果中，我们可以观察到，金融发展在HED中起着重要的作用，而金融发展在这一关系中起着正调节作用。相反，过度政府干预（GI）成为负调节变量，在市场效率和创新的情况下是有限的。我们的研究还报道了DF对HED的影响在中国不同地区具有异质性。因此，根据我们的研究结果，中国迫切需要在不同地区进行政策定制，以确保DF实施的最大效益。我们的研究结果表明，金融服务在促进可持续经济增长方面的重要性，特别是在发展中国家，如中国。

{"title":"Digital finance and high-quality economic development: Evidence from Chinese municipal data","authors":"Jing Wu , Chee Yoong Liew , Dong Ya Ji","doi":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102136","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102136","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Under the twin conditions of global digitalization and low-carbon, the process by which advanced technological tools such as digital finance (DF) promote the shift from a traditional real economy towards innovation-led and low-carbon circular economies is gaining much scholarly interest. We investigate how DF impacts high-quality economic development (HED) in Chinese municipalities during 2011–2023 with the help of the Peking University digital financial inclusion index and the China Urban statistical year book. Dimensions include industrial structure, total-factor productivity, technological innovation, environmental situation, and the life of residents. From the methodology view point, difference-in-differences and two-stage least square instrumental variables methods are adopted to resolve endogeneity problems and get robust research results. From our results, we can observe that DF plays an important role on HED and financial development (FD) is a positive moderator of this relationship. On the contrary, excessive government intervention (GI) becomes a negative moderating variable, which is limiting in the case of market efficiency and innovation. Our study has also reported that the effect of DF on HED is heterogeneous across different regions in China. Hence, based on our research results, there is a strong need for policy customization in different regions in China to ensure maximum benefits of the implementation of DF. Our results indicate the importance of DF in promoting sustainable economic growth, particularly in developing countries, such as China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47583,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Asian Economics","volume":"103 ","pages":"Article 102136"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2026-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"147421558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0