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Economic policy uncertainty, individual job hopping, and job match 经济政策的不确定性、个人跳槽和工作匹配
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2026.102123
Shuyuan Qin , Yongqiu Wu
In the ever-changing macroeconomic environment, economic policy uncertainty has emerged as a crucial external factor influencing individual job-hopping behavior. Using data from the 2014–2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), listed resume data, company hiring data, and multidimensional economic policy uncertainty indicators, we find that economic policy uncertainty significantly reduces job-hopping frequency among workers. When economic policy uncertainty increases by 1 standard deviation, the frequency of job hopping among workers decreases by 0.15 standard deviations. Sensitivity analysis, instrumental variables approach, and a series of robustness tests confirm the reliability of the estimation results. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that economic policy uncertainty reduces the job-hopping frequency of private enterprise employees, moderately educated workers, technical professionals, and production workers. Mechanism tests indicate that economic policy uncertainty primarily inhibits job hopping by increasing individual risk expectations and reducing firms’ hiring and layoff activities. Economic policy uncertainty decreases both the active job-hopping behavior of workers looking for new employment opportunities and the passive job-hopping behavior due to layoffs and other factors, further validating the mechanism of its influence. Finally, from both subjective and objective perspectives, we find that economic policy uncertainty reduces workers’ job match quality by suppressing their job-hopping behavior.
在不断变化的宏观经济环境下,经济政策的不确定性已成为影响个人跳槽行为的重要外部因素。利用2014-2020年中国家庭面板研究(CFPS)的数据,列出简历数据、公司招聘数据和多维经济政策不确定性指标,我们发现经济政策不确定性显著降低了工人的跳槽频率。经济政策不确定性每增加1个标准差,员工跳槽频率就减少0.15个标准差。灵敏度分析、工具变量法和一系列稳健性检验证实了估计结果的可靠性。异质性分析表明,经济政策的不确定性降低了民营企业员工、中等学历工人、技术专业人员和生产工人的跳槽频率。机制检验表明,经济政策的不确定性主要通过增加个体风险预期和减少企业的招聘和裁员活动来抑制跳槽。经济政策的不确定性既降低了劳动者寻找新就业机会的主动跳槽行为,也降低了因裁员等因素导致的被动跳槽行为,进一步验证了其影响机制。最后,从主观和客观两方面分析,我们发现经济政策不确定性通过抑制员工跳槽行为降低了员工的职业匹配质量。
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引用次数: 0
Institutional governance and energy security: Unveiling the drivers of global value chain participation in Asian economies 制度治理与能源安全:揭示亚洲经济体参与全球价值链的驱动因素
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102108
Wajid Ali , Seema Saini , Devi Prasad Dash
The study highlights the impact of energy security on global value chain participation (GVCs) in 48 Asian economies from 1990 to 2022, with a major focus on interaction effect of governance indicators. Utilising long run estimation approach our findings indicates, (1)Energy import and usage significantly enhances GVCs participation demonstrating the access to reliable and affordable energy supports; (2) Moderation effect of governance indicators such as political stability, rule of law, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, voice and accountability, and control of corruption indicates the positive and significant impact on GVCs participation, fostering greater industrialization and economic integration; (3) Political globalisation and inbound tourism have a positive impact on GVC participation, indicating strengthen international cooperation, enhanced international mobility and governance through effective regulations and economic policies; (4) Carbon emission also indicates positive influence on GVCs participation, signaling higher levels of industrialization, often associated with increased carbon output, are linked to greater integration into global value chains. Overall, promotion of energy security compliance along with robust institutional governance suggests that energy imports could be an attractive and effective approach in promoting global connectivity with enhanced industrial capacity.
该研究强调了1990年至2022年48个亚洲经济体能源安全对全球价值链参与(GVCs)的影响,主要关注治理指标的互动效应。利用长期估计方法,我们的研究结果表明:(1)能源进口和使用显著增强了全球价值链的参与,表明获得可靠和负担得起的能源支持;(2)政治稳定、法治、政府效能、监管质量、话语权和问责制、腐败控制等治理指标的调节效应表明,它们对全球价值链的参与产生了积极而显著的影响,促进了工业化和经济一体化的发展;(3)政治全球化和入境旅游对全球价值链参与有正向影响,表明通过有效的法规和经济政策加强国际合作,加强国际流动和治理;(4)碳排放还表明了对全球价值链参与的积极影响,表明工业化水平的提高往往与碳产出的增加有关,与全球价值链一体化程度的提高有关。总体而言,促进能源安全合规以及健全的机构治理表明,能源进口可能是促进全球互联互通、提高工业能力的有效途径。
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引用次数: 0
Can pilot free trade zones promote the agglomeration of talent in cities: Evidence from China 自由贸易试验区能否促进城市人才集聚:来自中国的证据
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102107
Zhui Liu, Kuiran Yuan , Huiru Wei
As a pivotal platform for institutional openness, Pilot Free Trade Zones (PFTZs) are increasingly serving as key policy instruments for promoting regional economic agglomeration and cross-border talent mobility worldwide. Grounded in agglomeration economics theory, this study employs panel data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China and adopts a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model to empirically assess the effect of PFTZ establishment on urban talent agglomeration. The findings indicate that the establishment of PFTZs significantly enhances regional talent agglomeration. Mechanism analysis reveals that PFTZs promote talent agglomeration primarily through enhancing entrepreneurial vitality, optimizing the innovation environment, and attracting foreign investment inflows. Spatial effect analysis reveals a shadow suppression zone within 50 kilometers of the PFTZs, while a notable positive spillover effect exists in the 50–150 kilometers range. However, these effects diminish significantly beyond 200 kilometers. Moreover, the impact of PFTZs on talent agglomeration exhibits significant heterogeneity across pilot batches, geographic locations, and educational levels. These findings enrich the theoretical understanding of how institutional policies influence talent flows and provide practical insights for local governments aiming to optimize talent allocation through PFTZ initiatives.
自由贸易试验区作为制度开放的重要平台,日益成为促进区域经济集聚和全球人才跨境流动的重要政策工具。本研究以集聚经济学理论为基础,利用中国284个地级市的面板数据,采用交错差中差(DID)模型实证评估自贸试验区建立对城市人才集聚的影响。研究结果表明,自贸区的建立显著促进了区域人才集聚。机制分析表明,保税区促进人才集聚的主要途径是增强创业活力、优化创新环境和吸引外资流入。空间效应分析表明,保税区50公里范围内存在阴影抑制区,50 ~ 150公里范围内存在显著的正向溢出效应。然而,这些影响在200公里以上就会显著减弱。此外,自贸区对人才集聚的影响在试点批次、地理位置和教育水平之间存在显著的异质性。这些发现丰富了制度政策如何影响人才流动的理论认识,并为旨在通过自贸区优化人才配置的地方政府提供了实践见解。
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引用次数: 0
Unravelling the factors behind Indonesia's international exchange reserves 揭开印尼国际外汇储备背后的因素
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102105
Sanjiv Kumar , K.P. Prabheesh , Iman Gunadi
This paper investigates the motives underlying Indonesia’s demand for international reserves. Using quarterly data for 2001Q1–2024Q4, we estimate a regression model for reserves-to-GDP and complement it with long-run cointegration techniques and quantile regressions. The baseline and cointegration results show that variables capturing precautionary and capital-account motives, most notably short-term external debt, the interest rate differential, and exchange-rate volatility, are the most robust determinants of reserve holdings. By contrast, current-account variables play a limited role. The undervaluation indicator is generally insignificant across specifications, providing little support for a strong mercantilist motive in Indonesia’s reserve accumulation strategy. Quantile regressions reveal important heterogeneity: the impact of short-term external debt is strongest in low-reserve regimes, while exchange-rate volatility becomes more relevant at the median and upper quantiles of the reserves distribution. Overall, the evidence suggests that Indonesia’s reserve policy has been guided primarily by precautionary and capital-account risk management rather than by persistent undervaluation aimed at export-led growth.
本文调查了印尼对国际储备的需求背后的动机。利用2001年第一季度至2024年第四季度的季度数据,我们估计了储备与gdp之比的回归模型,并用长期协整技术和分位数回归对其进行了补充。基线和协整结果表明,捕捉预防性和资本账户动机的变量,最显著的是短期外债、利差和汇率波动,是外汇储备持有的最有力决定因素。相比之下,经常账户变量的作用有限。从各个指标来看,低估指标总体上是微不足道的,这几乎无法支持印尼积累外汇储备战略中存在强烈的重商主义动机。分位数回归揭示了重要的异质性:短期外债的影响在低储备制度中最强,而汇率波动在储备分布的中位数和上分位数变得更加相关。总的来说,有证据表明,印尼的外汇储备政策主要以预防性和资本账户风险管理为指导,而不是以持续低估货币价值为目标,以实现出口导向型增长。
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引用次数: 0
The Commuter’s dividend: Dockless bike sharing and wage premium in urban labor market 通勤者的红利:无桩共享单车与城市劳动力市场的工资溢价
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102112
Chenyu Zeng, Xiahai Wei, Lingzheng Yu
As a new form of urban transportation, dockless bike sharing effectively improves connectivity between work and residence through its spatial penetration capabilities, reshaping commuting patterns and travel efficiency for workers. Whether the widespread adoption of dockless bike sharing has a positive impact on the labor market warrants further investigation. This paper uses the entry of the dockless bike sharing platform as a quasi-natural experiment, examining its impact on wages for short-distance commuters and the underlying mechanisms through micro-level individual data. This paper finds that the widespread adoption of bike sharing significantly increases workers’ wage levels, a conclusion that remains valid after a series of robustness tests. The mechanism behind this lies in the fact that bike sharing reduces commuting time and frees up additional working hours, thereby promoting wage growth by improving workers’ time allocation. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that bike sharing has a greater wage premium effect on urban vulnerable groups, outdoor mobile office workers, and short-distance workers, and the effect is more pronounced in cities with high levels of urban sprawl. This paper deepens the understanding of how dockless bike sharing enhances the welfare of urban workers, providing empirical evidence and decision-making references for governments to improve the new form of urban transportation and labor market development.
作为一种新型的城市交通形式,无桩共享单车通过其空间渗透能力,有效地改善了工作和居住之间的连通性,重塑了上班族的通勤模式和出行效率。无桩共享单车的广泛普及是否会对劳动力市场产生积极影响,还有待进一步调查。本文以无桩共享单车平台的进入作为准自然实验,通过微观层面的个体数据考察其对短途通勤者工资的影响及其潜在机制。本文发现,共享单车的广泛采用显著提高了工人的工资水平,这一结论经过一系列稳健性检验仍然有效。其背后的机制在于,共享单车减少了通勤时间,释放了额外的工作时间,从而通过改善工人的时间分配来促进工资增长。异质性分析表明,共享单车对城市弱势群体、户外移动办公人员和短距离工作者的工资溢价效应更大,且在城市蔓延程度高的城市中效果更为明显。本文加深了对无桩共享单车如何提升城市劳动者福利的理解,为各国政府完善城市交通新形态和劳动力市场发展提供了经验证据和决策参考。
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引用次数: 0
Chinese fiscal policy uncertainty and corporate total factor productivity 中国财政政策不确定性与企业全要素生产率
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102109
Zuofeng Wu , Huayu Shen , Jing Jiao
This study empirically examines the nexus between Chinese Fiscal Policy Uncertainty (CFPU) and corporate total factor productivity (CTFP) using a panel dataset of Chinese listed firms covering the period 2011–2023. The core results demonstrate that CFPU exerts a robustly negative impact on CTFP, with financial constraints serving as a primary mediating channel: heightened CFPU exacerbates firms’ financing frictions, which in turn constrain productivity growth. Supplementary mechanism tests further corroborate that CFPU undermines CTFP by suppressing corporate innovation investment and inducing inefficient underinvestment behaviors. Heterogeneity analyses reveal notable cross-firm variations in this relationship: state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and firms with a higher shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder exhibit greater resilience to CFPU’s adverse productivity effects, owing to their stronger risk-bearing capacity and privileged resource access. In contrast, firms with CEO duality suffer more severe CTFP losses due to impaired internal governance and decision-making oversight. To mitigate endogeneity concerns and verify result robustness, the study employs a battery of identification strategies, including instrumental variable regression, alternative model specifications, substitutions of the CTFP proxy, and dual clustering regressions. All robustness checks confirm the validity of the core findings. This research advances the literature by clarifying the microeconomic implications of fiscal policy uncertainty and its multi-channel transmission to firm productivity, while offering actionable implications for policymakers to enhance fiscal policy stability and for enterprises to optimize governance and financing strategies amid policy volatility.
本研究利用2011-2023年中国上市公司面板数据集,实证检验了中国财政政策不确定性(CFPU)与企业全要素生产率(CTFP)之间的关系。核心结果表明,CFPU对CTFP具有显著的负向影响,金融约束是主要的中介渠道:CFPU的增加加剧了企业的融资摩擦,进而抑制了生产率的增长。补充机制检验进一步证实了CFPU通过抑制企业创新投资和诱导低效投资不足行为来破坏CTFP。异质性分析显示,国有企业和第一大股东持股比例较高的企业对CFPU的不利生产率影响表现出更强的弹性,因为它们的风险承受能力更强,资源获取优势更大。相比之下,由于内部治理和决策监督受损,具有CEO双重身份的公司遭受更严重的CTFP损失。为了减轻内生性问题并验证结果的稳健性,该研究采用了一系列识别策略,包括工具变量回归、替代模型规范、替代CTFP代理和双聚类回归。所有稳健性检查都证实了核心发现的有效性。本研究通过澄清财政政策不确定性的微观经济影响及其对企业生产率的多渠道传导,推动了文献的发展,同时为政策制定者提供了可操作的启示,以增强财政政策的稳定性,并为企业在政策波动中优化治理和融资策略提供了可操作的启示。
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引用次数: 0
Guarantee networks and financial resource allocation: Firm-level evidence from China 担保网络与金融资源配置:来自中国的企业层面证据
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102113
Xinghua Guan , Ruixue Han , Jie Mao
The financing crowding-out effect of local public debt on microeconomic entities is a long-term, structural, and institutional issue that currently constrains China's economy from transitioning to a high-quality development stage. Based on the guarantee data collected manually, our study constructs the guarantee networks of the local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) from 2014 to 2022 using the complex network analysis method, and examines the influence of guarantee networks on the debt level of non-LGFV local firms. The results show that the expansion of the scale of the LGFVs' guarantee networks reduces the debt level of the non-LGFV local firms. This effect is particularly prominent in short-term liabilities, as well as non-state-owned enterprises, and areas with a poor social credit environment or higher network connectivity. Research on economic consequences indicates that the financing crowding-out effect of guarantee networks on non-LGFV local firms compels these firms to adjust their debt financing structure—specifically by increasing secured debts and advance receipts—and to alter their investment strategies, including reducing innovation investment. This research not only provides new evidence from a micro perspective on the impact of LGFVs' guarantee networks on corporate leverage but also offers valuable policy insights for optimizing local public debt management, improving financial market mechanisms, and promoting high-quality economic development.
地方公债对微观经济主体的融资挤出效应,是当前制约中国经济向高质量发展阶段转型的长期性、结构性、制度性问题。本研究在人工采集担保数据的基础上,运用复杂网络分析法构建了2014 - 2022年地方政府融资平台的担保网络,并考察了担保网络对非地方政府融资平台地方企业债务水平的影响。研究结果表明,地方政府融资平台担保网络规模的扩大降低了非地方政府融资平台地方企业的债务水平。这种效应在短期负债、非国有企业以及社会信用环境较差或网络连通性较高的地区尤为突出。对经济后果的研究表明,担保网络对非地方政府融资平台本地企业的融资挤出效应迫使这些企业调整其债务融资结构——特别是通过增加担保债务和预收单——并改变其投资策略,包括减少创新投资。本研究不仅从微观角度为地方政府融资平台担保网络对企业杠杆的影响提供了新的证据,而且为优化地方公共债务管理、完善金融市场机制、促进经济高质量发展提供了有价值的政策见解。
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引用次数: 0
Digital gains and employment pains? Evidence from Indian manufacturing 数字收益与就业阵痛?来自印度制造业的证据
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102106
Dixit Poudel, Munisamy Gopinath
The growing adoption of digitalization, particularly in information and communication technology (ICT), has become a key driver of value creation for firms. However, concerns persist about potential job losses or stagnating employment growth, especially with rapid advancements in artificial intelligence. This study leverages micro-level data from both formal and informal sectors to assess the benefits of digitalization in Indian manufacturing—a critical hub for global supply chain diversification—and explores whether these gains come at the cost of employment growth. For this purpose, digital capital is considered to be an input in production since it provides firms with comparative advantages. Moreover, digital capital can substitute or complement other inputs, such as physical capital. By measuring digital capital as the accumulation of weighted ICT investments, this study estimates a value-added function for firms and plants using a nested CES model, uniquely capturing the substitutability between physical and digital capital. Semi-parametric estimation methods, accounting for simultaneity between inputs and productivity, reveal significant digital gains for Indian manufacturing firms and plants in both sectors from 2010 to 2021. The formal sector experienced relatively higher digital gains, accompanied by greater elasticity of substitution between physical and digital capital. Contrary to common assumptions, increased digital capital intensity correlates with higher labor and skilled-labor intensity in formal industries. Globally, when combined with industry formalization efforts, digitalization can drive both value addition and employment growth.
数字化,特别是信息和通信技术(ICT)的日益普及,已成为企业创造价值的关键驱动力。然而,人们仍然担心潜在的失业或就业增长停滞,尤其是在人工智能迅速发展的情况下。本研究利用来自正式和非正式部门的微观数据来评估数字化对印度制造业(全球供应链多元化的关键中心)的好处,并探讨这些好处是否以牺牲就业增长为代价。为此,数字资本被认为是一种生产投入,因为它为企业提供了比较优势。此外,数字资本可以替代或补充其他投入,如实物资本。通过将数字资本衡量为加权ICT投资的积累,本研究使用嵌套CES模型估算了企业和工厂的增值函数,独特地捕捉了物理资本和数字资本之间的可替代性。考虑到投入和生产率之间的同时性,半参数估计方法揭示了2010年至2021年印度制造企业和工厂在这两个部门的显著数字化收益。正规部门经历了相对较高的数字收益,伴随着实体资本和数字资本之间更大的替代弹性。与通常的假设相反,数字资本密集度的增加与正规产业中更高的劳动力和熟练劳动力密集度相关。在全球范围内,当与行业正规化努力相结合时,数字化可以推动附加值和就业增长。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of natural disasters on agriculture in the tropics: New empirical evidence 自然灾害对热带地区农业的影响:新的经验证据
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102097
Snehaprava Sahoo , Devi Prasad Dash , Apra Sinha
Agricultural activities in tropical regions face growing vulnerability to natural disasters as their frequency and intensity are increasing over time. We construct a panel of 43 tropical economies and examine the impact of natural disasters on agricultural value added. Results suggest that the natural disaster reduces agricultural value added by causing death, displacing the population, and physical damages. Among these, the affected population has the strongest effect, as it reinforces both the land and labour channels of production. Furthermore, we estimate the heterogeneous effect of different natural disasters and find that droughts are the most damaging for agricultural activities followed by storm. Notably, a 1 % increase in drought-related deaths led to a 0.7 % decrease in agricultural value added. These results suggest that climate change is having adverse effects on livelihood in tropical regions that require policy attention.
随着自然灾害的频率和强度不断增加,热带地区的农业活动越来越容易受到自然灾害的影响。本文以43个热带经济体为样本,考察自然灾害对农业增加值的影响。结果表明,自然灾害通过造成死亡、人口流离失所和物理损害来降低农业增加值。其中,受影响人口的影响最大,因为它加强了生产的土地和劳动力渠道。此外,我们估计了不同自然灾害的异质性效应,发现干旱对农业活动的破坏性最大,其次是风暴。值得注意的是,与干旱有关的死亡人数增加1 %,导致农业增加值减少0.7 %。这些结果表明,气候变化正在对热带地区的生计产生不利影响,需要引起政策关注。
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引用次数: 0
Central-local environmental policy consistency, streamlining and delegation reform, and urban entrepreneurial executive density 中央地方环境政策一致性、简政放权改革与城市企业家执行密度
IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.102104
Yuequn Cao, Chaoyang Tu, Chenlin Cui, Kexin Du
As ecological civilization advances in China, the impacts of governmental efforts to implement green development policies—and the mechanisms through which they operate—warrant closer scrutiny. This study constructs a dataset on policy consistency by measuring the cosine similarity between municipal and central government work reports, and employs a long-difference model to examine how central–local environmental policy consistency affects urban entrepreneurial executive density under the “streamlining, delegation, and regulation” reform framework. The findings show that locally tailored, context-specific adjustments in policy consistency significantly increase urban entrepreneurial executive density. The effects also differ markedly between large cities and small- to medium-sized cities, with adjustment strategies varying by city size. While such tailoring promotes regional economic growth, achieving a more rational industrial structure requires stronger alignment between central and local policies. Further analysis indicates that, when adjusting policy consistency, local governments face a trade-off between fiscal decentralization and policy implementation, implying a need to balance “spending,” “earning,” and “saving.” The reform framework creates enabling conditions for flexible policy adjustments. Moreover, these adjustments improve firms’ earnings per share and market performance, strengthening profitability and growth potential. This, in turn, attracts entrepreneurial executives to locate in particular regions, consistent with a “voting with their feet” mechanism. By introducing “urban entrepreneurial executive density” as an indicator of policy responsiveness, this paper highlights that policy consistency shapes both resource allocation efficiency and executives’ locational choices, thereby influencing regional competitiveness. The study contributes to the literature on central–local relations and offers policy-relevant implications for environmental policymaking and the development of entrepreneurial executive talent in China.
随着中国生态文明的不断推进,政府实施绿色发展政策的影响及其运行机制值得进一步审视。本研究通过测度城市与中央政府工作报告余弦相似度构建政策一致性数据集,并采用长差模型考察“简政放权”改革框架下中央与地方环境政策一致性对城市创业高管密度的影响。研究结果表明,因地制宜、因地制宜的政策一致性调整显著提高了城市创业高管密度。这种影响在大城市和中小城市之间也有显著差异,调整策略因城市规模而异。虽然这种调整促进了区域经济增长,但实现更合理的产业结构需要加强中央和地方政策的协调。进一步分析表明,在调整政策一致性时,地方政府面临财政分权与政策执行之间的权衡,这意味着需要平衡“支出”、“收入”和“储蓄”。改革框架为灵活调整政策创造了有利条件。此外,这些调整提高了公司的每股收益和市场表现,增强了盈利能力和增长潜力。这反过来又吸引了具有创业精神的高管到特定地区落户,这与“用脚投票”的机制是一致的。本文通过引入“城市创业高管密度”作为政策响应性指标,强调政策一致性既影响资源配置效率,又影响高管的区位选择,从而影响区域竞争力。本研究对中央与地方关系的研究文献有所贡献,并为中国环境政策制定和创业型行政人才的培养提供政策相关启示。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Asian Economics
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