Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

We use the combined data of enterprises from the "China Industrial Enterprise Database" and the "China Customs Database" from 2000 to 2013 to examine whether and how the improvement in input efficiency of rare earth enterprises affects value chain embeddedness. The research finds that the improvement in input efficiency of rare earth enterprises has a significant enhancement effect on value chain embeddedness. The results show that the difference in the efficiency impact of capital input and labor input is around 3 %. Specifically, the improvement in input efficiency of enterprises will generate product expansion effects, quality effects, and technology effects, strengthening the ascent of the enterprise value chain. Furthermore, for enterprises in the middle segments of the industry chain, enterprises with low debt ratios, and enterprises in a relaxed financing environment, the efficiency of capital input has a more significant impact on improving the position of enterprises in the value chain.

In this paper, we present a hybrid Agent-Based Stock-Flow-Consistent (AB-SFC) model about the macroeconomic and distributional implications of central bank’s decision to leave a “Low(-for-long) Interest Rate Environment” (LIRE). Our goal is to study the non-linear effects of monetary tightening when implemented under LIRE than in an alternative “Higher Interest Rate” setting (HIRE). This way, we shed light over the interaction between monetary policy, inequality, and macro-financial fragility in a financialized economy characterized by the presence of securitization and the production of complex financial products, i.e., Asset-Backed Securities (ABSs). We obtain three main findings. First, consistent with existing empirical literature, LIRE may be sources of vulnerabilities in the financial industry (i.e., lower banks’ profitability and capital adequacy ratio). However, it may reduce systemic macro-financial risk by stimulating faster growth, lower unemployment and inequality records alongside with lower public and private indebtedness and lower-scale securitization. Second, central bank’s decision to raise interest rates improves financial sector’s performance indicators at the costs of harsh real-side consequences, i.e., permanently higher unemployment and inequality, when implemented under LIRE. Third, financialization structurally changes the functioning of the economy by feeding the creation of a debt-led economy in which monetary policy becomes less effective in its attempt of controlling inflation. Central bank’s reaction in the form of a permanently tighter monetary policy stance eventually prompts a more unequal and unstable rentier-friendly economy.

Following Hansen (1939), we use a Bayesian multilevel (‘mixed effects’) model on a large firm-level panel to isolate the secular decline in autonomous investment demand and test for causes of it. Our firm-level regression shows that the investment slowdown is a long-standing feature across firms in 21 advanced economies since 1998 and continuing until the present (2020). Using a group-level (‘macro’) regression, we try to explain firms’ estimated secular decline in autonomous investment demand. We find that a shortage of relative investment opportunities – as per the original secular stagnation thesis – explains 40% of the variation in this secular slowdown.

Circular Economy (CE) is a popular topic for governments and businesses around the world; yet, only a few comprehensive and economy-wide frameworks exist, and the consequences of the CE on economic systems stay unclear. With this systematic review, we put under scrutiny the existing contributions to Circular Economy (CE) that apply the Agent-based modelling methodology. There is an open gap in the CE literature regarding the use of ABM. The research question that guides this systematic review concerns the potential benefit of ABM for CE and how to use this methodology in the context of CE. We put in evidence three thematic areas, two agents and one process, namely producers, i.e. firms and industrial systems, consumers, i.e. households and waste disposal, and the diffusion of innovation. We infer that the former three thematic strands of literature can be further synthetized together to form a general model of the Circular Economy. This development is crucial to properly evaluate how the agent's heterogeneity affects the diffusion and the consequences of the adoption of CE practices on the economy. Research has widely applied ABM simulations to consider the impact of heterogeneity amongst individuals and their behavioural interactions on the evolution of complex systems, yet very little did it systematically about CE. Our results complement those of Computable General Equilibrium models. The review provides an interpretative framework, suggests valuable future research directions within the new comprehensive thematic area, and contributes to the theoretical and managerial discussion on agent-based modelling in the circular economy.

Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020, this paper studies the impact of the digital economy on urban residents’ upgrading of their consumption structure. The digital economy promotes the upgrading of urban residents’ consumption structure. Moreover, the digital economy has a more significant effect on promoting the upgrading of residents’ consumption structure in third-tier cities. The mediation effect proves that increasing disposable income and upgrading the industrial structure are crucial mechanisms. Based on pertinent findings and the development levels of various cities, this paper proposes policies to strengthen the digital infrastructure, improve residents’ income, optimize industrial structure, and establish differentiated measures.

The demand for eco-products due to the exigency of friendly and environmental production could affect the employment of the firms. This paper tests whether product and process eco-innovations boost employment in Spain differentiating by the environmental goals (material and energy efficiency and environment responsiveness), by the level of qualification of the workers, and by the dirtiness of the industries. We apply a Green Harrison model, using the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) for Spain from 2008 to 2016. Results show a positive relationship between all types of product eco-innovations and employment, while the influence of process eco-innovations on employment depends on the environmental goals, the level of skills, and the industry. Specifically, distinguishing by industry there is a labour-saving effect in clean industries and a labour-friendly effect for low-skilled employment in dirty industries.

This paper investigates the relationship between competition and innovation using a worldwide dataset of manufacturing and service industries. The sample comprises the world's top corporate R&D spenders listed in the EU 2017 industrial R&D Scoreboard, and the analysis covers the years spanning 2007 to 2016. We use an industry-year indicator, the inverse of the Lerner Index, to measure the competition level prevailing between these large R&D companies. R&D expenditures are used as a proxy for innovation. The model is estimated using two-stage least squares to control for the potential endogeneity of the competition indicator. Our contributions are three-fold. Firstly, we examine the innovation-competition nexus at the worldwide level, thus extending the geographical coverage of previous studies. Secondly, we analyze the relationship separately for manufacturing and service industries, characterized by different technological and knowledge-based regimes. Finally, we distinguish between incumbents and new entrants in the worldwide market. Our findings confirm the existence of an inverted-U shaped relationship between competition and innovation and show that this relationship differs between manufacturing and service industries. The results also reveal that the effect of competition on innovation varies between incumbents and new entrants. Our paper contributes to the existing literature by providing novel empirical evidence on the innovation-competition nexus based on a global sample and addressing previous studies' limitations.

This paper explores the role of political connections in facilitating access to credit for firms in the Indian corporate sector. This study aims to address gaps in the literature by combining theoretical insights with empirical data. Our model proposes that political connections may reduce risk for firms, thereby enhancing their access to credit. Utilizing a unique dataset of S&P BSE 500 companies from 2001 to 2019, we analyze the extent of these connections and their impact on financial leverage and debt-to-asset ratios. Our findings reveal that politically connected firms, defined by their monetary donations to political parties and the inclusion of Members of Parliament on their boards, exhibit significantly higher financial leverage and debt-to-asset ratios than unconnected firms. This implies a lower perceived borrower’s risk and an advantageous position in accessing credit, likely a result of their political ties. The implications of our findings extend to the realms of corporate governance, economic policy, and the broader understanding of emerging market dynamics.

We investigate the dynamics of incidence, intensity and persistence of low pay in Italy from 1990 to 2018 by exploiting a large administrative sample of employees in the private sector. We refer to relative and absolute low pay thresholds and assess workers’ conditions according to annual earnings, weekly wages and full-time-equivalent (FTE) weekly wages, to depurate low pay dynamics from the influence of changes in worked weeks and hours. Regardless of the chosen threshold, we find that the incidence of low pay is high and steeply increased in the last decades when the focus is on annual earnings and weekly wages. A flat trend emerges instead when low pay is assessed according to FTE weekly wages, signalling that a major role in the low pay dynamics is played by the reduction in the number of hours worked by low-paid individuals because of the increasing spread of part-time contracts. Nevertheless, the share of low-paid workers is rather high even when the focus is on FTE weekly wages. Furthermore, low pay is a persistent status for a large and rising share of workers. These findings reveal a clear worsening of workers’ conditions at the bottom of the earnings distribution in Italy.

The idea that Spain should reduce its structural fiscal deficit has been playing a crucial role in determining the orientation of its fiscal policy for the past three decades, in line with the European fiscal rules. Nevertheless, relying on unobservable variables for its estimation might lead to an underestimation of potential GDP and to the application of pro-cyclical measures in times of crisis. Following the Updated Okun Method to estimate an alternative measure of potential GDP, which targets full employment, we simulate alternative fiscal policy scenarios for Spain from 2023 to 2028. Our results point to a better performance, both in terms of public debt sustainability and reduction of the unemployment rate, when focusing on an unemployment rate target rather than on the reduction of the structural fiscal balance. This suggests a departure from this indicator in guiding fiscal policy orientation in the context of the reform of the European fiscal rules.