Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献_第8页

Appetite for Destruction. A firm-level portrait of automation in Poland 毁灭的欲望。波兰企业层面的自动化图景

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.001

Julia Jabłońska , Jakub Mućk

We investigate the main drivers of automation in Poland. Using a unique occupation–firm level dataset with direct measures of automation, we subsequently document a series of stylized facts on firms’ past and planned adoption of automation technologies. The adoption extends well beyond the manufacturing — reaching industries from agriculture and retail to professional and business services, with intensity highest in sectors that previously attracted FDI and slightly less pronounced in R&D-oriented industries. Despite substantial industry- and occupation-level differences, much of the variation in automation can be attributed to firm-level heterogeneity within industries. More productive firms tend to exhibit not only higher current levels of automation, but also greater potential for further adoption — resulting, on average, in a larger gap between where they are now and what remains feasible. Large firms are more likely to automate, as fixed costs associated with automation are more easily absorbed by larger enterprises. We also find some evidence supporting a learning-by-exporting mechanism: a higher propensity to automate is observed among exporting firms. However, the link between exporting status and automation is quite heterogeneous and depends crucially on the nature of trade linkages. In general, exporters specialized in producing intermediates at early stages of GVC (forward linkages) lag behind their counterparts that are closer to final demand (backward participation). Finally, our results suggest a significant appetite for further automation because more advanced adopters appear more likely to continue automating their production.

我们调查了波兰自动化的主要驱动因素。使用一个独特的职业-公司层面数据集，直接测量自动化，我们随后记录了一系列关于公司过去和计划采用自动化技术的程式化事实。这种采用远远超出了从农业和零售到专业和商业服务等影响制造业的行业，在以前吸引外国直接投资的部门中，这种采用的强度最高，而在面向研发的行业中则稍不明显。尽管存在巨大的行业和职业水平差异，但自动化的大部分变化可归因于行业内公司层面的异质性。生产率更高的公司往往不仅表现出更高的当前自动化水平，而且还表现出更大的进一步采用的潜力——结果是，平均而言，它们现在所处的位置与仍然可行的位置之间存在更大的差距。大公司更有可能实现自动化，因为与自动化相关的固定成本更容易被大企业吸收。我们还发现了一些支持出口学习机制的证据：在出口企业中观察到更高的自动化倾向。然而，出口地位和自动化之间的联系是相当不一致的，关键取决于贸易联系的性质。一般来说，在全球价值链的早期阶段专门生产中间体的出口商（前向联系）落后于更接近最终需求的同行（后向参与）。最后，我们的结果表明了对进一步自动化的显著需求，因为更先进的采用者似乎更有可能继续自动化他们的生产。

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引用次数: 0

Patterns of subordination in the Global South between natural resources, foreign ownership and financial inflows 全球南方国家在自然资源、外国所有权和资金流入之间的从属关系

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.09.001

Samuele Bibi

Peru and Kazakhstan have often been presented as success stories—respectively, in Latin America and Central Asia—due to their sustained economic growth since the early 2000s. Despite their distinct histories, geographies, and cultural contexts, both countries exhibit comparable economic features: a heavy reliance on natural resource exports, significant foreign ownership in strategic sectors, and persistent dependence on external financial inflows. These shared characteristics raise concerns about a common pattern of dependency and subordination. While the 2003–2014 commodity supercycle enabled both countries to reduce poverty and transition into upper-middle-income status, this growth was primarily driven by extractive sectors and fuelled by foreign capital. Beneath this apparent success lies a more troubling reality: structural current account deficits, driven by negative primary income balances despite strong trade surpluses. These deficits were increasingly financed through pro-market policies aimed at attracting foreign direct investment, particularly in copper extraction in Peru and oil in Kazakhstan. Although commodity prices have experienced partial revivals, long-term sustainability remains questionable—especially given rising social unrest and mounting geopolitical tensions. This paper explores the financial underpinnings of this subordination by analysing balance of payments dynamics and international investment position statistics for both countries and further contrasting it with Mexico as a third country. In doing so, it critically assesses the viability of development strategies based on natural resource extraction and foreign capital inflows, situating the analysis within broader geopolitical and historical frameworks.

由于秘鲁和哈萨克斯坦自21世纪初以来的持续经济增长，它们经常被视为拉美和中亚的成功案例。尽管两国的历史、地理和文化背景不同，但两国都表现出类似的经济特征：严重依赖自然资源出口，战略部门的大量外资所有权，以及对外部资金流入的持续依赖。这些共同的特征引起了人们对依赖和从属的共同模式的关注。虽然2003-2014年的大宗商品超级周期使两国得以减少贫困并向中高收入国家过渡，但这种增长主要是由采掘部门推动的，并得到了外国资本的推动。在这种表面上的成功背后，隐藏着一个更令人不安的现实：结构性经常账户赤字，尽管贸易顺差强劲，但主要收入余额为负。这些赤字越来越多地通过旨在吸引外国直接投资的亲市场政策来提供资金，特别是在秘鲁的铜矿开采和哈萨克斯坦的石油开采方面。尽管大宗商品价格出现了部分回升，但长期可持续性仍存在问题——尤其是在社会动荡加剧和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下。本文通过分析两国的国际收支动态和国际投资头寸统计数据，并进一步将其与作为第三国的墨西哥进行对比，探讨了这种从属关系的金融基础。在此过程中，它批判性地评估了以自然资源开采和外国资本流入为基础的发展战略的可行性，并将分析置于更广泛的地缘政治和历史框架内。

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引用次数: 0

Mapping CO2 emissions in Global Value Chains: Does a value-added smile curve imply an emissions frown curve? 绘制全球价值链中的二氧化碳排放：附加值微笑曲线是否意味着排放皱眉曲线？

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.009

Wolfgang Schwarzbauer , Virág Bittó , Philipp Koch , Jonathan Steininger

Global value chains (GVCs) play a crucial role in international trade. High value-added activities tend to cluster at the start and the end of GVCs, resulting in a U-shaped relationship across production steps known as the “smile curve”. The distribution of CO

_{2}

emissions along the value chain, however, is relatively unexplored. Here, we map embodied CO

_{2}

emissions to test whether emissions are distributed differently across production stages than value–added. We find that activities with high emission intensities cluster at early stages, while late stages exhibit lower emission intensities. This results in a downward-sloping CO

_{2}

emissions curve with tentative evidence of a frown-curve pattern. Also, we find that the prevalence of a U-shaped pattern in the distribution of value-added across production stages declined significantly since 1995. We explore several examples and provide an interactive tool to explore the mapping of value-added and emissions across more than 1,000 GVCs of industrial goods.

全球价值链在国际贸易中发挥着至关重要的作用。高附加值活动往往聚集在全球价值链的起点和终点，导致生产步骤之间的u型关系，即“微笑曲线”。然而，二氧化碳排放在价值链上的分布却相对未被探索。在这里，我们绘制了具体的二氧化碳排放量，以测试排放量在生产阶段的分布是否与增值阶段不同。研究发现，高排放强度的活动集中在早期阶段，而后期则表现出较低的排放强度。这就产生了一条向下倾斜的二氧化碳排放曲线，并初步证明了皱眉头曲线的模式。此外，我们还发现，自1995年以来，附加值在各生产阶段的分布呈u型分布的趋势明显下降。我们探讨了几个例子，并提供了一个交互式工具来探索1000多个工业产品全球价值链的增值和排放映射。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of bioeconomic practices within structural changes using picture fuzzy decision-making model 利用图像模糊决策模型评价结构变化中的生物经济实践

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.017

Muhammet Deveci , Mehtap Isik , Arunodaya Raj Mishra , Pratibha Rani , Ilgin Gokasar , Zhe Liu

This study examines the impacts of the bioeconomy transition from a multidimensional perspective. As a growing response to sustainability challenges, the bioeconomy is driving dynamic structural changes in both the economy and society. This transition holds significant potential for job creation, integration with circular economic systems, and the revitalization of rural areas. Given that the transformative effects of emerging bioeconomic practices vary in scale and scope, their evaluation in the context of bioeconomic growth is essential for analyzing their efficiency and feasibility. The evaluation process should have a multidimensional approach, addressing technical and social factors, economic considerations, environmental expectations, and regulatory constraints. Taking complex nature of assessment problem into account, this study introduces a multi-criteria decision-making analysis (MCDA) framework to formulate evaluation of different alternatives under uncertain constraints setting. A hybrid combination of three different MCDA methods and new divergence measure for picture fuzzy sets are developed to estimate objective weights of criteria in assessing the trends concerning their multidimensional impacts. The framework is applied to the case of Türkiye, a country with substantial bioeconomic growth potential. A structured survey is conducted to assess current bioeconomy trends. Three biotechnological alternatives are evaluated against fourteen criteria, categorized into four dimensions: technological, economic, environmental, and social. The findings indicate that the use of biotechnology for enzyme production receives the highest prioritization across these dimensions, highlighting its strategic importance in advancing bioeconomic growth. While the case study of Türkiye demonstrates the model’s implementation and effectiveness, the analysis is further extended to offer policy recommendations—such as establishing a robust institutional framework that enhances local governance capacities.

本研究从多维角度考察了生物经济转型的影响。作为对可持续性挑战的日益增长的回应，生物经济正在推动经济和社会的动态结构变化。这一转变在创造就业、融入循环经济体系和振兴农村地区方面具有巨大潜力。鉴于新兴生物经济实践的变革效应在规模和范围上各不相同，在生物经济增长的背景下对其进行评估对于分析其效率和可行性至关重要。评价过程应采用多层面的方法，处理技术和社会因素、经济考虑、环境期望和管理限制。考虑到评估问题的复杂性，本文引入了一个多准则决策分析（MCDA）框架来制定不确定约束条件下不同方案的评估。本文提出了一种混合组合的三种不同的MCDA方法和一种新的图像模糊集散度测度，以估计在评估其多维影响趋势时标准的客观权重。该框架适用于斯里兰卡这个具有巨大生物经济增长潜力的国家。进行了一项结构化调查，以评估当前的生物经济趋势。根据14项标准对三种生物技术替代品进行评估，这些标准分为四个方面：技术、经济、环境和社会。研究结果表明，利用生物技术生产酶在这些方面得到了最高的优先考虑，突出了其在促进生物经济增长方面的战略重要性。虽然对t rkiye的案例研究证明了该模型的实施和有效性，但该分析进一步扩展到提供政策建议，例如建立一个强有力的制度框架，以增强地方治理能力。

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引用次数: 0

ESG in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE): Driving Forces for SDGs 动态随机一般均衡中的ESG：可持续发展目标的驱动力

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.015

Sheng Zhang , Yifu Yang , Yijie Zhao , Ya Wang , Jiming Hao

As global attention to sustainability grows, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors into macroeconomic models is crucial for understanding their impact on achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, validated with a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, to assess how ESG factors act as driving forces for the SDGs. The findings reveal that ESG investments, particularly those enhancing environmental quality, involve a short-term trade-off with consumption but lead to long-term capital accumulation, improved production efficiency, and macroeconomic stability. Empirical analysis using data from China confirms the positive impact of ESG factors on consumption and capital. This study highlights the critical value of incorporating ESG into economic modeling, providing key quantitative insights for policymakers formulating strategies t hat promote sustainable development.

随着全球对可持续发展的关注日益增加，将环境、社会和治理（ESG）因素纳入宏观经济模型对于理解它们对实现可持续发展目标（sdg）的影响至关重要。本研究建立了一个动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，并通过结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型进行验证，以评估ESG因素如何成为可持续发展目标的驱动力。研究结果表明，ESG投资，特别是那些提高环境质量的投资，涉及与消费的短期权衡，但会导致长期资本积累，提高生产效率和宏观经济稳定。利用中国数据进行的实证分析证实了ESG因素对消费和资本的正向影响。本研究强调了将ESG纳入经济模型的关键价值，为决策者制定促进可持续发展的战略提供了关键的定量见解。

引用次数: 0

Spatio-temporal evolution and convergence analysis of China's land economy and marine economy green development synergy 中国陆地经济与海洋经济绿色发展协同效应的时空演化与收敛分析

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.014

Yanwei Wang , Kedong Yin , Xue Jin

The green development coordination of land economy (LE) and marine economy (ME) is an inevitable choice to respond to the requirements of sustainable development. This paper measures the level of LE and ME green development synergy in China from 2010 to 2023, and further analyzes the regional differences and convergence characteristics in coordination by using Dagum Gini coefficient method and convergence model. The research shows that LE and ME green development synergy level in all regions has risen to good coordination. The main source of the difference of LE and ME green development synergy has changed from hypervariation density to inter-regional differences, and the internal difference of southern marine economic circle is the largest. Only the northern marine economic circle exists

σ

convergence in stage 1, and it maintains stable

β

convergence with coastal area, which is affected by different factors in different periods. Therefore, make policy recommendations.

陆地经济与海洋经济的绿色协调发展是响应可持续发展要求的必然选择。本文测度了2010 - 2023年中国中小企业和中小企业绿色发展协同水平，并运用Dagum基尼系数法和收敛模型进一步分析了协调的区域差异和收敛特征。研究表明，各地区中小企业绿色发展协同水平已上升到良好的协调性水平。LE和ME绿色发展协同效应差异的主要来源已经从高密度变化转变为区域间差异，其中南部海洋经济圈内部差异最大。只有北方海洋经济圈在第一阶段存在σ辐合，与沿海地区保持稳定的β辐合，不同时期受到不同因素的影响。因此，提出政策建议。

引用次数: 0

International cost-push inflation and monetary policy in Brazil 巴西的国际成本推动型通货膨胀和货币政策

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.003

Guilherme Spinato Morlin

Exchange rate and commodity prices are often considered primary drivers of inflation in Brazil. However, international cost shocks from intermediate inputs are less studied. We estimate a Structural VAR model including a Foreign Producer Price Index, measuring cost changes of Brazilian trade partners in the period 1999–2020. Estimates show a positive effect of the Foreign PPI on the Brazilian Consumer Price Index, providing a relevant explanation for domestic inflation. Consistently with the empirical literature, our results underscore the Exchange Rate as the main determinant of the CPI. Our findings highlight the predominance of shocks related to the external sector (Exchange Rate, Foreign PPI, and Commodity Prices) in explaining inflation in Brazil. Since the international shocks and Foreign PPI are beyond the direct influence of the Central Bank, our results confirm that the inflation targeting regime in Brazil relied mainly on the exchange rate effect following changes in the interest rate.

汇率和商品价格通常被认为是巴西通货膨胀的主要驱动因素。然而，对中间投入的国际成本冲击的研究较少。我们估计了一个包含外国生产者价格指数的结构性VAR模型，测量了1999-2020年期间巴西贸易伙伴的成本变化。估计数据显示，国外PPI对巴西消费者价格指数（cpi）产生了积极影响，为国内通胀提供了相关解释。与实证文献一致，我们的结果强调汇率是CPI的主要决定因素。我们的研究结果强调了与外部部门（汇率、国外PPI和商品价格）相关的冲击在解释巴西通胀方面的主导地位。由于国际冲击和国外PPI超出了中央银行的直接影响，我们的研究结果证实，巴西的通货膨胀目制制主要依赖于利率变化后的汇率效应。

引用次数: 0

A model of maximum employment growth with a one-third profit share 一个以三分之一的利润份额实现最大就业增长的模型

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.013

Alain Villemeur

The economies of the European Union and the United States have been predominantly wage-driven in recent decades, according to most empirical studies on the Bhaduri–Marglin model (1990). Nevertheless, since the 1980s, European governments have operated under the neoclassical belief that full employment can be achieved by reducing labour costs and increasing the profit share of income, a strategy that has proven effective, though the reasons remain a mystery (Storm and Naastepad, 2017). How could this happen? To explain these developments, the proposed new model of growth and distribution integrates the principles of chain reaction, creative destruction, effective demand, and the significance of income distribution, as outlined by Kaldor, Schumpeter, Keynes, and Ricardo, respectively. It has been theoretically demonstrated that employment growth reaches its maximum when profit share accounts for one-third of income. This relationship is illustrated by the evolution of the U.S. economy throughout the 20th century and by 17 advanced economies since 1961, the earliest year for which precise data is available. Thus, wages drive output and productivity growth, while employment growth is driven by the profit share when it is below the one-third threshold, and by the wage share when it exceeds that point.

根据对Bhaduri-Marglin模型（1990）的大多数实证研究，近几十年来，欧盟和美国的经济主要是由工资驱动的。然而，自20世纪80年代以来，欧洲各国政府一直在新古典主义的信念下运作，即充分就业可以通过降低劳动力成本和增加收入的利润份额来实现，这一策略已被证明是有效的，尽管原因仍然是一个谜（Storm和Naastepad， 2017）。这是怎么发生的？为了解释这些发展，新提出的增长和分配模型整合了连锁反应、创造性破坏、有效需求和收入分配的重要性等原则，这些原则分别由卡尔多、熊彼特、凯恩斯和李嘉图提出。理论上已经证明，当利润占收入的三分之一时，就业增长达到最大。美国经济在整个20世纪的演变，以及自1961年以来17个发达经济体（1961年是可获得精确数据的最早年份）的演变，都说明了这种关系。因此，工资推动产出和生产率增长，而就业增长是由利润份额驱动的，当它低于三分之一的门槛时，由工资份额驱动，当它超过这一点时。

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引用次数: 0

The Supply chain spillovers of Pilot Free Trade Zones on GVC upgrading of Chinese firms 自由贸易试验区供应链溢出对中国企业全球价值链升级的影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.011

Yongming Huang , Xin Li , Changwei Liu

Pilot Free Trade Zones (PFTZs) represent a pivotal national strategy for advancing China’s high-quality opening up, which offer a quasi-natural experiment to test the supply chain spillovers. By constructing the panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms during the period of 2008 to 2016, this study examines the spillover effects of PFTZs on firms’ GVC positions through supply chain linkages utilizing DID method. The results indicate that PFTZs significantly improve GVC positions of both upstream and downstream firms. Specifically customers in PFTZs enhance their suppliers’ GVC positions by triggering innovation, while suppliers in PFTZs facilitate their customers’ GVC upgrading through cost reduction. These spillovers exhibit significant heterogeneity across financial constraints, market concentration, and regions. In addition, this study reveals that PFTZs exert significantly negative effects on GVC positions of downstream SMEs, whereas the positive effects on upstream SMEs’ GVC positions are not statistically significant. The implication of these findings is that greater policy attention should be paid to supply chain spillover mechanisms, considering their heterogeneous effects across customers, suppliers, and regions.

自由贸易试验区是中国推进高质量对外开放的关键国家战略，是检验供应链溢出效应的准自然实验。本文通过构建2008 - 2016年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，运用DID方法检验自贸区通过供应链联系对企业全球价值链地位的溢出效应。结果表明，自由贸易区显著提高了上下游企业的全球价值链地位。具体而言，保税区内的客户通过激发创新提升了供应商的全球价值链地位，而保税区内的供应商则通过降低成本促进了客户的全球价值链升级。这些溢出效应在金融约束、市场集中度和地区之间表现出显著的异质性。此外，本研究还发现自贸区对下游中小企业的全球价值链定位具有显著的负向影响，而对上游中小企业的全球价值链定位具有不显著的正向影响。这些发现的含义是，考虑到供应链溢出机制在客户、供应商和地区之间的异质效应，政策应给予更多的关注。

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引用次数: 0

Driving environmental, social, and governance excellence: The direct and indirect effects of intelligent transformation 推动环境、社会和治理卓越：智能转换的直接和间接影响

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-08-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.08.008

Yuhang Chen , Yilin Zhong , Feng Xu , Qinghua Zhang

Integrating intelligent technologies into corporate processes represents a transformative response to sustainable and responsible business practices. Despite its growing significance, the effects and mechanisms through which intelligent transformation impacts corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance remain insufficiently explored. Drawing on resource orchestration and dynamic capabilities theory, this study develops a theoretical framework to analyze how intelligent transformation empowers ESG improvement. Using a comprehensive dataset of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2023, the empirical results confirm that intelligent transformation significantly enhances ESG performance. This improvement is realized through three key channels: enhancing information disclosure quality, fostering green innovation, and mitigating supply chain concentration. Furthermore, the effects are more pronounced among state-owned enterprises, technology- and capital-intensive corporations, corporations located in the eastern area of China, and those operating in highly marketized regions. A value chain analysis further reveals that intelligent transformation in research design, manufacturing, and marketing consistently drives ESG enhancements. These findings enrich the literature on intelligent transformation and provide actionable insights for corporations seeking to optimize their sustainability practices in an intelligence era.

将智能技术集成到企业流程中代表了对可持续和负责任的商业实践的变革性响应。尽管智能转型越来越重要，但其影响企业环境、社会和治理（ESG）绩效的效果和机制仍未得到充分探索。利用资源编排和动态能力理论，本研究建立了一个理论框架来分析智能转型如何增强ESG改进。利用2009 - 2023年中国a股上市公司的综合数据集，实证结果证实，智能化转型显著提升了企业的ESG绩效。通过提高信息披露质量、培育绿色创新和降低供应链集中度三个关键渠道实现这一改善。此外，在国有企业、技术和资本密集型企业、位于中国东部地区的企业以及在高度市场化地区经营的企业中，这种影响更为明显。价值链分析进一步表明，研究设计、制造和营销方面的智能转型持续推动ESG的增强。这些发现丰富了关于智能转型的文献，并为寻求在智能时代优化其可持续性实践的企业提供了可操作的见解。

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引用次数: 0