Structural Change and Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Can labor policies reduce precarization? The case of youth employment in Italy 劳工政策能减少不稳定现象吗？以意大利青年就业为例

IF 5.5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.003

Nicola Caravaggio

The so-called Dignity Decree (DD), which came into force in summer 2018, represents one of the most significant legislative interventions in employment protection within the Italian labor market. This study examines the role of DD in shaping the career paths of young workers (aged 15-29) who recently entered the labor market. Specifically, we focus on their probability of being employed one year or more after the reform’s implementation and their likelihood of securing an open-ended contract within the same time frames. The analysis relies on an exclusive database of Compulsory Communications data and employs a Propensity Score Matching estimation. The findings suggest a modest improvement in the persistence of the labor market, with the probability of remaining employed increasing by approximately 1.5% one year after DD implementation. The result is more evident for open-ended contracts, with the probability of being employed in a permanent position rising to almost 4.5% after one year and half. Additionally, the DD is associated with a slight reduction in the number of contract activations and an increase in working days, reaching an additional 11 days 1.5 years after the reform’s introduction.

《尊严法令》于2018年夏季生效，是意大利劳动力市场就业保护方面最重要的立法干预措施之一。本研究考察了DD在塑造最近进入劳动力市场的年轻工人（15-29岁）的职业道路中的作用。具体来说，我们关注的是他们在改革实施一年或更长时间后被雇用的可能性，以及他们在相同时间框架内获得开放式合同的可能性。该分析依赖于强制性通信数据的专有数据库，并采用倾向得分匹配估计。研究结果表明，劳动力市场的持久性略有改善，在实施DD一年后，保持就业的可能性增加了约1.5%。这一结果在无固定期限合同中更为明显，在一年半后，获得永久职位的可能性上升至近4.5%。此外，DD与合同激活数量略有减少和工作日增加有关，在改革实施后一年半达到11天。

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引用次数: 0

Fintech and absolute intergenerational mobility: Evidence from digital finance development in China 金融科技与绝对代际流动性：来自中国数字金融发展的证据

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.004

Chenxuan Chen

Over the past four decades, wealth accumulation has increasingly concentrated among a small elite, particularly in developing countries. The rise of financial technology (fintech), however, offers a powerful tool to overcome these barriers and foster financial inclusion. Using microdata, we demonstrate that fintech significantly improves absolute intergenerational mobility, which represents a 67.76 % increase in the income of poor families. Our analysis reveals that fintech alleviates liquidity constraints and enhances "market luck", lowering entry barriers for economically disadvantaged individuals to pursue entrepreneurship. Furthermore, fintech's inclusive nature leads to varied effects across different households and offspring, reducing gender inequality and supporting upward mobility for low-income families. By expanding access to financial resources, fintech emerges as a crucial driver in addressing class disparities and promoting intergenerational mobility.

在过去40年里，财富积累越来越集中在少数精英手中，尤其是在发展中国家。然而，金融技术（fintech）的兴起为克服这些障碍和促进普惠金融提供了强有力的工具。利用微观数据，我们证明了金融科技显著提高了绝对代际流动性，这意味着贫困家庭的收入增加了67.76%。我们的分析表明，金融科技缓解了流动性约束，增强了“市场运气”，降低了经济弱势群体追求创业的进入门槛。此外，金融科技的包容性在不同家庭和后代之间产生了不同的影响，减少了性别不平等，支持了低收入家庭的向上流动。通过扩大获得金融资源的渠道，金融科技成为解决阶级差距和促进代际流动的关键驱动力。

引用次数: 0

Harnessing government digital attention: Reducing carbon emissions through the pathways of digitalization 利用政府的数字关注：通过数字化途径减少碳排放

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.003

Pan Zhang , Shihong Wang , Boying Li

Identifying the digital pathway is important for promoting regional green development and attracting diverse market entities. Existing studies predominantly conceptualized digitalization as a static state rather than a dynamic process, and failed to explore how government digital initiatives influence green development through facilitating digital economy growth. The paper employs instrumental variable analysis, threshold regression, and causal mediation analysis to investigate impacts of government digital attention on green development, with a focus on the mediating role of digital economy. It finds digital attention can lower carbon emissions by stimulating digital economy growth, and robustness tests support these findings. The results reveal that the digitalization process, from digital attention to a digital economy, enhances green development. Therefore, governments should take a more proactive approach to engaging market players in the digital sector.

明确数字路径对促进区域绿色发展、吸引多样化市场主体具有重要意义。现有研究主要将数字化概念化为静态而非动态过程，未能探讨政府数字化举措如何通过促进数字经济增长来影响绿色发展。本文采用工具变量分析、阈值回归和因果中介分析等方法，考察了政府数字关注对绿色发展的影响，重点研究了数字经济的中介作用。研究发现，数字关注可以通过刺激数字经济增长来降低碳排放，稳健性测试支持了这些发现。研究结果表明，从数字关注到数字经济，数字化进程促进了绿色发展。因此，各国政府应采取更积极主动的方式，吸引市场主体参与数字领域。

引用次数: 0

Assessing the dynamics of supply risks in the global polysilicon trade network: A multidimensional analysis from 2000 to 2022 全球多晶硅贸易网络供应风险动态评估：2000 - 2022年多维度分析

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.002

Chao Wang , Lei Zhang , Xiaoqian Hu , Qiuyun Zhao

The global polysilicon trade network (GPSTN) has evolved into an increasingly intricate system, shaped by geopolitical tensions, environmental challenges, and health crises, intensifying concerns over energy security. As a critical material for photovoltaic cells, polysilicon constitutes an indispensable component for the global transition towards renewable energy. However, quantitative assessments of country-specific vulnerabilities during polysilicon supply disruptions remain limited. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the GPSTN from 2000 to 2022, utilizing an improved cascading failure model and a comprehensive assessment framework. The framework quantifies countries' roles as risk initiators, transmitters, and vulnerable recipients through three novel indicators: destructiveness, transmissibility, and vulnerability. The analysis reveals the United States' persistent dominance in destructiveness since 2000, the escalating destructiveness of Asian countries, the pronounced transmissibility of China and the United States, and the heightened vulnerability of Japan and China stemming from their import dependence. This multidimensional approach elucidates country-specific roles during supply disruptions and advances targeted recommendations for policymakers to strengthen supply chain resilience and stability. The findings demonstrate the critical importance of considering multiple dimensions when evaluating a country's position in the polysilicon trade network and highlight the need for customized risk mitigation strategies.

全球多晶硅贸易网络（GPSTN）已经发展成为一个日益复杂的系统，受到地缘政治紧张局势、环境挑战和健康危机的影响，加剧了对能源安全的担忧。作为光伏电池的关键材料，多晶硅是全球向可再生能源过渡不可或缺的组成部分。然而，在多晶硅供应中断期间，对特定国家脆弱性的定量评估仍然有限。本研究利用改进的级联故障模型和综合评估框架，通过分析2000年至2022年的GPSTN，解决了这一差距。该框架通过破坏性、传播性和脆弱性这三个新指标量化了各国作为风险发起者、传播者和脆弱接受者的作用。分析显示，自2000年以来，美国在破坏性方面持续占据主导地位，亚洲国家的破坏性不断升级，中国和美国的明显传播性，以及日本和中国由于依赖进口而变得更加脆弱。这种多维方法阐明了各国在供应中断期间的具体作用，并为政策制定者提出了有针对性的建议，以加强供应链的弹性和稳定性。研究结果表明，在评估一个国家在多晶硅贸易网络中的地位时，考虑多个维度至关重要，并强调了定制风险缓解战略的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Competition and demand-led growth: linking different parts of the Sraffian-inspired research program 竞争和需求主导的增长：将伊朗启发的研究项目的不同部分联系起来

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.015

Graham White

The paper explores connections between two distinct lines of enquiry in the broader Sraffian research program: the fusion of the Sraffian approach and a demand-led view of growth; and dynamics of competition enforcing a uniform rate of profit. A simplified multi-commodity simulation model incorporating target return pricing and demand led-growth is used to highlight a first connection in the form of competition acting as a perturbation of the process by which capacity adapts to aggregate demand. The implied view of target return pricing is however limited in terms capturing its significance in a corporate setting. Literature on the history of corporate pricing points to a more nuanced view of target return pricing as well as a different view of capital mobility compared with that commonly depicted in the literature on gravitation. This in turn suggests a second connection between the two Sraffian-inspired lines of enquiry. Making use of the target return price equations of the simulation model together with the insights from literature on corporate pricing allows one to identify the kinds of factors which would generate profit differentials sufficient to trigger intersectoral capital mobility. In turn this analysis highlights the importance of ‘normal’ conditions in individual sectors, not least the significance of normal utilization; and changes in autonomous demand as a factor generating relevant profit differentials and structural changes via intersectoral capital mobility.

本文探讨了在更广泛的斯拉菲研究计划中两种不同的研究路线之间的联系：斯拉菲方法与需求主导的增长观点的融合；和竞争的动态执行统一的利润率。一个包含目标回报定价和需求导向增长的简化多商品模拟模型被用来强调竞争形式的第一个联系，作为产能适应总需求过程的扰动。然而，目标收益定价的隐含观点在捕捉其在企业环境中的重要性方面是有限的。关于公司定价历史的文献指出了一种更细致入微的目标回报定价观点，以及与引力文献中通常描述的资本流动性观点不同的观点。这反过来又暗示了两种受伊拉克启发的调查路线之间的第二种联系。利用模拟模型的目标回报价格方程以及来自公司定价文献的见解，可以确定产生足以触发部门间资本流动的利润差异的各种因素。反过来，这种分析强调了个别部门“正常”条件的重要性，尤其是正常利用的重要性；自主需求的变化是通过部门间资本流动产生相关利润差异和结构变化的一个因素。

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引用次数: 0

Different specifications and implications of the supermultiplier model 超乘数模型的不同规格和含义

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.012

José A. Pérez-Montiel , Andreu Sansó

We analyze, compare, and discuss two distinct econometric specifications of the supermultiplier model. Specifically, we contrast the empirical strategy that examines the relationship between output (

y_{t}

) and autonomous demand (

z_{t}

) with the specification that focuses on the relationship between induced demand (

x_{t}

) and

z_{t}

. Although both specifications are theoretically valid from a macroeconomic standpoint, we use econometric theory to show that they may lead to different conclusions regarding cointegration and causality. This paper challenges the findings of existing empirical research based on the

y_{t}

–

z_{t}

specification, which should be interpreted with caution, particularly those suggesting unidirectional Granger causality from autonomous demand to output.

我们分析、比较和讨论了超乘数模型的两种不同的计量经济指标。具体来说，我们将检验产出（yt）和自主需求（zt）之间关系的实证策略与关注诱导需求（xt）和zt之间关系的规范进行了对比。虽然从宏观经济的角度来看，这两个规范在理论上是有效的，但我们使用计量经济学理论来表明，它们可能导致关于协整和因果关系的不同结论。本文对现有的基于yt-zt规范的实证研究结果提出了挑战，这些研究结果应该谨慎解读，特别是那些提出从自主需求到产出的单向格兰杰因果关系的研究结果。

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引用次数: 0

Unequal impacts of temperature deviations on poverty:International Evidence 温度偏差对贫困的不平等影响：国际证据

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.07.001

Huiming Zhang , Aixin Zhang , Kai Wu , Yinyin Cai , Yueming (Lucy) Qiu , Shouyang Wang , Weiwei Wang , Yongfan Zhao

Climate damages increase with the rising frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Meanwhile, accumulation of temperature deviations also poses serious concerns because of its tremendous and divergent impacts on agricultural system, urbanization and socioeconomic conditions of the vulnerable population. We investigate how deviations from comfortable temperature ranges influence national poverty rates across 102 countries from 1987 to 2020. Using an innovative temperature deviation index and a panel dataset, we find a negative association between temperature deviation and national poverty rate, significant only in cooler regions. Agricultural output and urbanization account for 24 % and 29 % of this effect, respectively. Projections suggest the global poverty rate may decrease to 15.66 %-16.21 % by 2060, despite environmental stress. Our findings challenge the notion that climate change uniformly exacerbates poverty, highlighting the need for tailored adaptation strategies and policies that consider both risks and potential benefits of changing temperature patterns.

气候灾害随着极端天气事件发生频率和强度的增加而增加。与此同时，温度偏差积累对农业系统、城市化和弱势群体社会经济状况的影响巨大且存在差异，也引起了人们的严重关注。我们调查了从1987年到2020年102个国家的舒适温度范围的偏差如何影响国家贫困率。使用创新的温度偏差指数和面板数据集，我们发现温度偏差与国家贫困率之间存在负相关关系，仅在较冷的地区显著。农业产出和城市化分别占这一影响的24%和29%。预测显示，尽管面临环境压力，到2060年，全球贫困率可能降至15.66% - 16.21%。我们的研究结果挑战了气候变化统一加剧贫困的观念，强调需要有针对性的适应战略和政策，考虑到温度模式变化的风险和潜在利益。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of restrictive monetary policy in emerging countries 新兴国家限制性货币政策的影响

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.016

Akanksha Mishra , Amlendu Dubey

We study the sacrifice ratios for 465 disinflationary episodes in emerging market and developing economies using a dataset of 123 countries during 1979 to 2023. We find that average output cost of disinflation was significantly higher during COVID-19 period as compared to the previous disinflationary episodes, suggesting that supply side disruptions elevated the output costs of monetary tightening during the period. Further, we find that speed of disinflation and peak inflation significantly reduce sacrifice ratios suggesting a role for “cold turkey” approach as against the gradualism.

我们使用1979年至2023年123个国家的数据集，研究了新兴市场和发展中经济体465次反通胀时期的牺牲率。我们发现，与之前的反通胀时期相比，2019冠状病毒病期间反通胀的平均产出成本要高得多，这表明在此期间，供给侧中断提高了货币紧缩的产出成本。此外，我们发现通货紧缩和通货膨胀峰值的速度显著降低了牺牲率，这表明“突然停止”方法的作用与渐进主义相反。

引用次数: 0

Dynamic change of transnational labour transfer embodied in trade and China’s participation from the perspective of global supply chains 全球供应链视角下贸易体现的跨国劳动力转移动态变化与中国参与

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.014

Yuzhe Bai , Gaoxiang Gu

This study developed a multi-regional input-output model to analyse the international transfer patterns of trade embodied labour for the years 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014 and 2017. Considering the skill level, labour was divided into skilled and unskilled labour. The trends of China’s role in international division of labour were also explored from the perspective of global supply chains. The results indicate that China was the primary exporter of trade embodied labour. The USA and EU were not only the main importer but also exported significant effective skilled labour. From 2004 to 2017, the proportion of China’s outflow of effective skilled labour increased rapidly. Consequently, those of the USA, EU and Japan declined. The primary and secondary industries were the focus of China’s trade embodied labour outflows in the early stages. After 2011, influenced by policies such as “supply-side structural reform”, it became the tertiary industries.

本研究建立了多区域投入产出模型，分析了2004年、2007年、2011年、2014年和2017年贸易包含劳动的国际转移模式。考虑到技能水平，劳动被分为熟练劳动和非熟练劳动。本文还从全球供应链的角度探讨了中国在国际分工中的作用趋势。结果表明，中国是贸易隐含劳动力的主要出口国。美国和欧盟不仅是主要的进口国，而且还出口了大量有效的熟练劳动力。2004年至2017年，中国有效技术劳动力外流比例快速上升。因此，美国、欧盟和日本的出口下降。第一产业和第二产业是早期中国贸易劳动力外流的重点。2011年以后，受“供给侧结构性改革”等政策影响，成为第三产业。

引用次数: 0

Trade-off theory vs. the pecking order hypothesis: Japanese evidence on capital structure under financial constraints 权衡理论与等级秩序假说：金融约束下资本结构的日本证据

IF 5 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Structural Change and Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.004

Konstantinos Voutsinas , Richard A. Werner

This paper investigates the explanatory power of the two predominant theories of capital structure, the trade-off theory and the pecking order hypothesis, in accounting for financial policy decisions of Japanese corporations. We conduct a “horse race” test similar to the one utilized in the seminal papers of Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999) and Frank and Goyal (2009). This is the first paper to take into consideration the effect of monetary conditions and financial constraints on the performance of these two theories. The data set used includes 1528 public and 2143 private companies and covers the period of 1980–2007, thus employing 60,037 observations. We show that economic conditions affect the performance of the two models. The pecking order hypothesis works best during the high growth period of the 1980s, while the trade-off theory is the best performer during the stagnant growth period of the 1990s and the subsequent credit crunch. Our results also indicate that the explanatory power of these two theories varies for different groups of firms. The trade-off theory works best for companies with low levels of leverage while the pecking order hypothesis performs best for private companies and companies with high levels of leverage.

本文考察了两种主要的资本结构理论——取舍理论和啄序假说在日本企业财务决策中的解释力。我们进行了一个“赛马”测试，类似于Shyam-Sunder and Myers（1999）和Frank and Goyal（2009）的开创性论文中使用的测试。这是第一篇考虑货币条件和金融约束对这两种理论表现的影响的论文。使用的数据集包括1528家上市公司和2143家私营公司，涵盖1980-2007年期间，因此使用了60,037个观测值。我们证明了经济条件会影响两种模型的性能。啄食顺序假说在20世纪80年代的高增长时期最为有效，而权衡理论在20世纪90年代的停滞增长时期和随后的信贷紧缩时期表现最佳。我们的研究结果还表明，这两种理论对不同的企业群体的解释能力是不同的。权衡理论最适用于低杠杆水平的公司，而优先顺序假说最适用于私营公司和高杠杆水平的公司。

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