Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

We address the issue of inequalities in educational achievements among social groups, within the framework of Sustainable Development Goal 10 (SDG10). Despite efforts to distribute resources equitably and implement affirmative government actions, educational inequalities remain a significant challenge, partially due to the continuing impact of social group dynamics. Previous studies have emphasized the possibility of improving individual capabilities to address this issue. However, the quantitative studies that examine this issue are underexplored. We utilize data from the Indian Human Development Survey (IHDS) 2011–12 to examine the effect of individual capabilities and social group affiliations on educational achievements. We employ ordered logit regression, decomposition analysis, and instrumental variable approach to analyze the data. The findings of our study indicate that while government interventions and policies have had some impact, a more focused approach and policy change on individual capability is necessary. We propose a policy framework emphasizing early identification and development of key capabilities. These are mass media exposure, parental participation of professional groups, and good physical health, especially for marginalized sections. The study advocates for equipping schools with digital and mass media resources, establishing community programs for financial literacy, and engaging families to understand the importance of these capabilities. This dual approach aims to enhance individual capabilities and reduce the influence of social group dynamics, contributing to more equitable and inclusive educational outcomes and broader societal sustainability. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and contribute to the global debate on sustainable development and educational equality.

Institutional quality has been opined as a significant determinant of FDI inflow in international business literature. On the contrary, literature on determinants of institutional quality and how it changes is scant and merits further study. This study analyses the impact of FDI on institutional distance in the context of India and its partner countries, i.e., whether it leads to convergence or divergence of institutional distance. We identified a significantly positive impact of FDI on institutional distance. Further, to capture the heterogeneity among our partner countries, we subdivided our sample based on the partner country's development level and analysed the source of change in institutional distance.

Regulatory harmonisation stands as a central issue in the European Union (EU), playing a key role in achieving the single market. Accounting harmonisation, in particular, has been the subject of different regulatory frameworks, mainly directives. However, the literature suggests that the implementation of these directives within the EU does not consistently meet its harmonisation goals due to diverse legal, cultural, and business interpretations among the Member States. In the realm of social and environmental accounting, Directive 2014/95/EU (NFRD) compels specific companies to prepare and present Sustainability Reports (SRs), with the primary goal of enhancing the availability of sustainability information while also fostering greater consistency and comparability. Nevertheless, the flexibility afforded by this Directive may give rise to divergences among the national regulations of the EU Member States, as has been the case previously. Therefore, this study aims to analyse the success of the NFRD in harmonising sustainability disclosure by examining the quantity and homogeneity of such information disclosed in the SRs of 100 large agri-food companies in Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain. To do so, a content analysis and non-parametric tests were applied. The findings show a limited performance and high heterogeneity in disclosure across countries, suggesting that the NFRD has fallen short of harmonising national regulations on disclosing sustainability information.

Utilizing expanded data analysis, this study aims to determine how China's macroeconomic performance affects the global economy. Employing the Global Vector Auto Regression (GVAR) model, we investigate the impact of China's macroeconomic variables on the economies of its selected trading partners throughout the world. For 2000Q1–2019Q4, developed countries (the US, Hong Kong), developing Europe countries (Russian Federation and Poland), and two developing Asia countries (Vietnam and India) show that Chinese macroeconomic performance has a greater impact than middle east and central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western hemisphere. The Chinese GDP shock hits emerging Europe harder because of its extensive Russian production network. Results reveal that Chinese depreciation impacts developing Europe and Asia, while the Chinese stock market shock hits advanced economies more. Advanced and developing Asian economies are greatly affected by TV shock. Chinese FDI affects the Middle East and Central Asia, because of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. China trading partners use macroeconomic statistics to assess their economic priorities, industrial strengths, and weaknesses to create national interest plans. Currency adjustment, trade policies, domestic stimulus, and market diversification can minimize negative effects or capitalize on possibilities from China's macroeconomic conditions.

This study explores the impact of arms embargoes on the economic performance of major international defense companies. The direction of this effect is not immediately clear as it relies on the embargo evading opportunities by exporting companies on the one hand and the stringency of enforcement by the sending state on the other. The main findings in this study indicate that the total revenues of a defense company significantly drop after the introduction of an arms embargo. As a result, the net profits of these companies are under downward pressure when the number of arms embargoes increases globally. It turns out that the ability of a firm to effectively mitigate the negative consequences of an embargo is both related to firm-specific particularities, such as the degree of diversification, as well as, country differences. For instance, the negative effect appears, in particular, to be present in countries with a strong rule of law or effective control of corruption.

On 27th of July 2022, the European Central Bank (ECB) responding to emerging inflation pressures increased the interest rate of the main refinancing operation to 0.5% up from 0.0% which was the norm for the second half of the previous decade. Since then, the ECB responded to inflationary shocks by increasing interest rates nine more times till 20 September 2023, reaching 4.5%. Following these unprecedented hikes in ECB interest rates, Greek banks responded swiftly by raising their lending interest rates, whereas they kept deposit rates at very low levels with the net interest margin (NIM) being at 2.6% in the first half of 2023 compared to 1.5% in the Euro-area while in November 2023, the Greek NIM was raised further to 4.83%, which was more than twice the corresponding NIM at 2.4% of Euro Area banks. Our dynamic panel VAR analysis study examines whether the oligopolistic structure of the Greek banking industry contributes to this divergence in NIM. This high NIM has induced a staggering increase in net interest income of Greek banks by 59.9% in 2023 compared to 2022 from 2.54 mil euros to 4.07 mil euros. During the same period, Greece reported a negative saving rate at − 4%, as people resorted to their savings to cope with greedflation in consumer goods. We show that successive interest rate hikes by the ECB aimed to reduce inflation have positively contributed to the sustainability of the Greek banking industry by building up stronger capital buffers and accelerating amortization of the deferred tax credits mainly through the channel of NIM. Alas, the high cost of diverging Greek NIM from the rest of the Euro Area hurts credit expansion and fuels existing greedflation by generating its own bankflation. Our study shows that EU policymakers should accelerate the banking union in the Euro Area which would enhance competitive pressures for Greek banks and potentially reduce NIM and tackle bankflation. The regaining of Greece’s investment grade gives the impetus to the convergence of Greek NIM to euro area ones.

We investigate the impact of governance quality and corruption on the propensity of COVID-19 infections to result in deaths, while controlling for a wide range of socio-economic country characteristics, for 139 countries. Governance quality is negatively associated with mortality from COVID-19, for a given number of infections. This result holds for the aggregate governance index and for most of its components, in particular government effectiveness, rule of law, and control of corruption. Corruption among business executives, judges and magistrates, the legislature, and among government officials exerts the largest impact on COVID-induced deaths. We propose directions for future policy initiatives.

Amidst economic downturn pressures, major countries emphasized the manufacturing industry and increased research and development (R&D) investments to realize innovation in manufacturing. Manufacturing enterprises are the main performers of R&D investments, so it is imperative for policymakers to accurately evaluate the policy effect of different industrial tendency and policy intensity on growth. The impact of the overall R&D expenditure on macroeconomy or the effectiveness of enterprises’ R&D investment on business profit has been reported in a great deal of literature, but so far, the impacts of enterprises’ R&D have little been experimented at the macro level and industrial level. This paper improves the knowledge production function and structured a regional dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the multi-dimensional macroeconomic impact of enterprises’ R&D investment. The results show that enterprises’ R&D investment has a significant role in promoting economic output, residents’ welfare, price control, and international trade, and its impact is declining over time. The impacts of enterprises’ R&D on different industries are heterogeneous; industries with lower knowledge capital are more sensitive to R&D investment. These findings contribute to the effectiveness of R&D policies.

In a highly interconnected world, it is important to determine how local events happening somewhere can influence the course of action in a different place. The current study approaches Brexit' spillover effect across Europe regarding Euroscepticism and Europeans' attitudes towards the EU. Through a quasi-experimental methodology, we employed the data from the eighth and the ninth edition of the European Social Survey (ESS). After March 29, 2017, when Theresa May triggered the formal mechanism for the Brexit process, in distant UK places, public opinion shifted towards believing the EU unification had gone too far. The political placement (left/right leaning) predicted the shift, while the use of the internet and the self-reported happiness level significantly and positively impacted the support for remaining in the EU. Subjectively experiencing unemployment did not contribute to Euroscepticism, but it was positively correlated with unfavourable opinions about immigration. Conversely, the affection toward Europe increased for politically right-leaning respondents who considered that immigration harms the local state and should be reduced. Self-reported quality of life (health and happiness), greater internet use, and news media consumption lead to more favourable views toward immigration and the idea that immigrants enrich the local state. The theoretical and practical implications are discussed with public policy recommendations.

This work investigates the SMEs of the Italian automotive supply chain, testing the impact of an innovation policy created with the target of supporting investments in Industry 4.0. In detail, the authors examine the impact of this policy on SMEs’ access to the capital market (i) and their financial performance (ii). The former is an appropriate proxy to measure the effectiveness of such policy; while the latter is a good candidate to evaluate the sustainability of this program after its conclusion. According to our results, SMEs with access to the incentives of this innovation policy are those observations with higher rates of admission to external financial resources (i.e., 0.3 higher debt ratio) and higher financial performance (i.e., 2 times the odds of having a positive profit, and 0.01 higher financial indexes). Hence, evidence suggests a positive evaluation of this public intervention, as well as positive expectations on its sustainability. In view of these insights, several policy implications are formulated to lead governments into the fourth industrial revolution.