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Journal of Policy Modeling最新文献

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Increasing taxes on ‘bads’ and reducing them on ‘goods’: A double dividend hypothesis of carbon taxation 增加对“坏”的征税,减少对“好”的征税:碳税的双重红利假设
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.002
Gurleen Kaur Malhotra , Amlendu Dubey
We analyse the effect of adoption of a carbon tax on the effective labour tax rates using a difference-in-difference framework in which we incorporate staggered treatment adoption and account for heterogeneous causal effects. We use data on 143 countries during 1985–2018. We conduct our analysis using DID estimation developed by Borusyak et al. (2024) and Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021) followed by sensitivity analysis and placebo tests. We find that enacting a carbon tax on an average lowers the labour tax rate by 1.32 % points. In country-specific analysis we find that carbon tax implementation is reducing labour tax by around 3.57 % for Sweden and Norway, however, the effect is insignificant for Denmark. Our findings indicate that implementing a carbon tax can help to reduce the tax burden on labour. Countries experiencing substantial welfare losses due to their present tax structure might implement carbon taxes as a means to mitigate these losses.
我们采用差分法框架分析了采用碳税对实际劳动税率的影响,在该框架中,我们纳入了交错处理方法,并考虑了异质性因果效应。我们使用了 1985-2018 年间 143 个国家的数据。我们使用 Borusyak 等人(2024 年)以及 Callaway 和 Sant'Anna (2021 年)开发的 DID 估计方法进行分析,然后进行敏感性分析和安慰剂测试。我们发现,征收碳税可将劳动税率平均降低 1.32 个百分点。在国别分析中,我们发现碳税的实施使瑞典和挪威的劳动税率降低了约 3.57%,但对丹麦的影响并不显著。我们的研究结果表明,实施碳税有助于减轻劳动力的税收负担。由于目前的税收结构而造成大量福利损失的国家可以通过实施碳税来减轻这些损失。
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引用次数: 0
Lowering trade barriers improves income distribution and economic resiliency 降低贸易壁垒可以改善收入分配和经济弹性
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.004
Maksym Chepeliev , Maryla Maliszewska , Israel Osorio-Rodarte , Maria Filipa Seara e Pereira , Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
The U.S.-China trade war, COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to calls for greater economic self-sufficiency by exposing gaps in international collaboration and the uncertainty of global supply chains. In this study, we apply a comprehensive global modeling framework to enhance understanding of the potential impacts of fragmentation of global value chains. Supporting the general argument toward economic benefits from open markets our analysis contributes to the policy debate in two important dimensions of this phenomenon—distributional impacts and economic resiliency. We find that tariff liberalization and trade facilitation measures implemented by developing countries could not only reduce between-country inequality but also result in progressive within-country income distribution primarily through lowering food prices, as well as increasing unskilled wages. In addition, using a case study of disruption to Thailand’s electronics industry, we find higher resiliency of developing countries to external shocks in the globalized (as opposed to a localized) world.
中美贸易战、COVID-19 大流行病和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰暴露了国际合作中的差距和全球供应链的不确定性,从而促使人们呼吁加强经济自给自足。在本研究中,我们采用了一个全面的全球建模框架,以加深对全球价值链碎片化潜在影响的理解。我们的分析支持开放市场带来经济利益的一般论点,有助于在这一现象的两个重要方面--分配影响和经济弹性--进行政策辩论。我们发现,发展中国家实施的关税自由化和贸易便利化措施不仅能减少国家间的不平等,还能主要通过降低食品价格和增加非技术性工资,在国家内部逐步实现收入分配。此外,通过对泰国电子产业受到破坏的案例研究,我们发现发展中国家在全球化(而非本地化)的世界中对外部冲击具有更强的抵御能力。
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引用次数: 0
Is there worldwide convergence toward the SDGs? 世界范围内是否存在可持续发展目标的趋同?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.002
Simona Bigerna, Silvia Micheli
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are an unprecedented guide to addressing sustainability challenges globally. A central issue in sustainable development debate is represented by the convergence problem. The aim of our paper is to construct a policy analysis model that can be used to examine the cross-country convergence processes with respect to the achievement of SDGs toward the goals, based on the theory of sigma-convergence and beta-convergence The analysis covers 190 countries from 2000 to 2022 and the convergence is estimated with both ordinary least square and Arellano-Bond methods. Factors affecting the multivariate convergence process are shown. Our analysis contributes to policy-shaping to redefine strategies that allows the SDGs to be achieved, highlighting the need to define concrete and measurable objectives, with qualitative and quantitative methods at national levels.
可持续发展目标(sdg)是应对全球可持续发展挑战的前所未有的指南。趋同问题是可持续发展辩论中的一个中心问题。本文旨在基于sigma-收敛和beta-收敛理论构建一个政策分析模型,用于研究可持续发展目标实现的跨国收敛过程。该分析涵盖了2000年至2022年190个国家,并使用普通最小二乘法和Arellano-Bond方法估计了收敛性。给出了影响多元收敛过程的因素。我们的分析有助于制定政策,重新定义实现可持续发展目标的战略,强调需要在国家层面采用定性和定量方法确定具体和可衡量的目标。
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引用次数: 0
The short-run displacement of EU cohesion funds in Italy: Has reprogramming a positive impact on regional growth? 欧盟凝聚力基金在意大利的短期转移:重新规划对地区增长有积极影响吗?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.09.003
Fabio Mazzola, Debora Gambina
The European cohesion policy aims at fostering long-run growth. This paper, for the first time, empirically evaluates the impacts of Structural Funds re-programming on regional growth, for the Italian case during 2007–20 period. The re-programming was due to the redirection of allocated amounts facing urgent needs related to the Great Recession, Covid-19 and natural disasters. We estimate impulse response functions through Jordà local projections. We find a robust negative effect of re-programming on regional growth starting three years after the planned shock and sectoral heterogeneity. Our empirical results discourage the Funds’ redirection towards a different use from original goals.
欧洲的凝聚力政策旨在促进长期增长。本文首次以2007 - 2020年意大利为例,实证评估了结构性基金重组对区域增长的影响。重新规划是由于重新分配了与大衰退、新冠肺炎和自然灾害有关的紧急需求的拨款。我们通过jordan局部投影估计脉冲响应函数。我们发现,在计划冲击和行业异质性发生后三年,重新规划对区域增长产生了强劲的负面影响。我们的实证结果不鼓励基金转向与最初目标不同的用途。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring policy responses to labour-saving technologies: An assessment of basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction 探索对节省劳力技术的政策回应:对基本收入、工作保障和减少工作时间的评估
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.01.001
Simone D’Alessandro , Tiziano Distefano , Guilherme Spinato Morlin , Davide Villani
This study examines policy responses to labor-saving technologies, focusing on employment and income inequality. Using the EUROGREEN model, we assess three scenarios: basic income, job guarantee, and working time reduction. The job guarantee scheme effectively reduces unemployment but raises the fiscal deficit, while working time reduction improves wage share, cuts deficits, and reduces inequality. Basic income has a moderate impact on unemployment but significantly reduces inequality but is accompanied by higher deficits. A wealth tax could help finance these policies and contribute to inequality reduction. This research provides novel insights to policymakers by demonstrating how a strategic mix of labour policies can improve socio-economic outcomes in the face of technological-induced job disruptions.
本研究以就业和收入不平等为重点,探讨了针对节省劳动力技术的政策应对措施。我们使用 EUROGREEN 模型评估了三种方案:基本收入、就业保障和减少工作时间。就业保障计划有效降低了失业率,但增加了财政赤字,而减少工作时间则提高了工资份额,削减了赤字,减少了不平等。基本收入对失业率的影响不大,但能显著减少不平等现象,但同时也会增加赤字。征收财富税有助于为这些政策提供资金,并有助于减少不平等。这项研究为政策制定者提供了新颖的见解,展示了在面临技术引发的就业中断时,劳动政策的战略组合如何能够改善社会经济成果。
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引用次数: 0
Inflation's dual impact on European banks' profitability 通货膨胀对欧洲银行盈利能力的双重影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.004
Renata Karkowska , Zbigniew Korzeb , Paweł Niedziółka
Geopolitical risks have sharply heightened inflationary pressures across global economies, posing significant challenges to the banking sector. This study investigates the complex impact of inflation on banks, focusing on the dual effect of rising inflation on bank performance. On one hand, our analysis of 196 commercial banks from 31 European countries reveals that inflation drives an increase in both interest and non-interest incomes, bolstering banks' revenue streams. On the other hand, this same inflationary pressure leads to a deterioration in efficiency ratios, indicating a decline in operational efficiency. This paradox highlights a critical issue for the banking sector: while banks may experience short-term revenue gains, their overall efficiency suffers, potentially undermining long-term stability. Our findings underscore the importance of coordinated monetary and macroprudential policies to mitigate these effects and suggest that supervisory policies favoring consolidation initiatives could offer a pathway to enhanced efficiency in an inflationary environment.
地缘政治风险急剧加剧了全球各经济体的通胀压力,给银行业带来了巨大挑战。本研究调查了通胀对银行的复杂影响,重点关注通胀上升对银行业绩的双重影响。一方面,我们对 31 个欧洲国家的 196 家商业银行进行的分析表明,通胀推动了利息和非利息收入的增长,增加了银行的收入来源。另一方面,同样的通胀压力却导致效率比率下降,表明经营效率下降。这一悖论凸显了银行业的一个关键问题:虽然银行可能会在短期内增加收入,但其整体效率却会受到影响,从而有可能破坏长期稳定。我们的研究结果凸显了协调货币政策和宏观审慎政策对减轻这些影响的重要性,并表明有利于整顿举措的监管政策可为在通胀环境下提高效率提供一条途径。
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引用次数: 0
New rules, new game? The effects of the away goals rule removal and video assistant referee adoption on game dynamics in UEFA Champions League ties 新规则,新游戏?取消客场进球规则和采用视频助理裁判对欧冠比赛动态的影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.12.003
Mustafa Yildirim , Mustafa Erhan Bilman
This study investigates the impact of two recent rule changes in European soccer: the abolition of the away goals rule (AGR) and the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system. Specifically, it examines how these changes affect game dynamics, focusing on playing style indicators and disciplinary outcomes within the UEFA Champions League. We collect data on 1244 two-legged ties (2488 individual matches), spanning the seasons from the start of 2000/01 to the play-off stage of 2023/24. By analyzing the data at both the aggregate tie and individual leg levels and controlling for an extensive array of confounding variables, we challenge UEFA’s rationale for discontinuing the AGR. Contrary to UEFA’s justification for its removal, our findings reveal that the AGR promotes offensive rather than defensive play. Our findings regarding the VAR accord with the predominant view in the literature: less referee bias against away teams and increased aversion to risky tackles, hence, fewer disciplinary infractions. Given that the ties played under the AGR are found to be more competitive and thus more entertaining, our key policy implication is that UEFA should consider reinstating the AGR. Our results also suggest that the VAR should remain in place as it stimulates fairness and rule-abiding play.
本研究调查了欧洲足球最近两项规则变化的影响:客场进球规则(AGR)的废除和视频助理裁判(VAR)系统的引入。具体来说,它研究了这些变化是如何影响比赛动态的,重点是比赛风格指标和欧洲冠军联赛的纪律结果。我们收集了从2000/01赛季开始到2023/24赛季附加赛阶段的1244场两回合比赛(2488场个人比赛)的数据。通过分析总比分和单回合水平的数据,并控制大量混杂变量,我们对欧足联停止AGR的理由提出了质疑。与欧足联取消AGR的理由相反,我们的发现表明AGR促进了进攻而不是防守。我们关于VAR的研究结果与文献中的主流观点一致:裁判对客队的偏见减少,对危险铲球的厌恶增加,因此,纪律违规行为减少。考虑到在AGR下进行的比赛更具竞争性,因此更有趣,我们的关键政策暗示是欧足联应该考虑恢复AGR。我们的研究结果还表明,VAR应该继续存在,因为它能促进公平和遵守规则的比赛。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of government domestic borrowing on monetary policy rate pass-through in Tanzania 坦桑尼亚政府国内借款对货币政策利率传递的影响
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.10.003
Enock Mwakalila
The central bank should be able to play a role in an economy through monetary policy. Controlling the interest rate is a key monetary policy instrument the central bank uses. Increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks in Tanzania may counteract this instrument and its intended impact. Thus, this study empirically analyzes how government debt to commercial banks affects the transmission of monetary policy rates to lending rates in Tanzania. Quarterly time series data is collected from 2010 to 2023. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model estimation with a bound cointegration test is used to establish the short and long-run relationship, and the results are subjected to diagnostic tests for robustness. The results show that increasing government borrowing from domestic commercial banks prevents the trickle-down effect of the monetary policy (repo) rate on lending rates. Therefore, the study recommends that the government reduce domestic borrowings to fund its budget deficit, especially spending on projects that the private sector can implement better.
央行应该能够通过货币政策在经济中发挥作用。控制利率是中央银行使用的一项关键货币政策工具。坦桑尼亚政府从国内商业银行借款的增加可能会抵消这一工具及其预期的影响。因此,本研究实证分析了坦桑尼亚政府对商业银行的债务如何影响货币政策利率对贷款利率的传导。季度时间序列数据采集时间为2010 - 2023年。采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型估计和定界协整检验来建立短期和长期关系,并对结果进行鲁棒性诊断检验。结果表明,政府从国内商业银行借贷的增加阻止了货币政策(回购)利率对贷款利率的涓滴效应。因此,该研究建议政府减少国内借款,为其预算赤字提供资金,特别是在私营部门能够更好地实施的项目上的支出。
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引用次数: 0
Policy lessons from green gdp convergence over five decades: Enhancing sustainability and economic outcomes 五十年来绿色gdp趋同的政策教训:增强可持续性和经济成果
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.08.002
Saša Stjepanović , Daniel Tomić , Marinko Škare
This study analyzes the convergence of Green GDP among 160 countries from 1970 to 2019, emphasizing the pivotal role of environmental policies in shaping sustainable economic outcomes. By comparing traditional and Green GDP (includes environmental degradation), this paper identifies distinct economic clusters or “convergence clubs” and reveals how policy-driven changes influence these classifications. The findings highlight the significant impact of environmental policies on economic convergence and propose applicative policy recommendations to foster sustainable growth, making this study essential for policymakers engaged in economic and environmental planning. This study demonstrates the long-term convergence of the selected countries' economic growth, influenced by their disparate commitments to sustainable practices and regulatory frameworks that govern environmental protection. Thus, regardless of the variations across countries and their environmental policies, diverse economic strategies tend to produce similar outcomes in the long term.
本研究分析了1970年至2019年160个国家绿色GDP的趋同,强调了环境政策在塑造可持续经济成果方面的关键作用。通过比较传统GDP和绿色GDP(包括环境退化),本文确定了不同的经济集群或“收敛俱乐部”,并揭示了政策驱动的变化如何影响这些分类。研究结果强调了环境政策对经济趋同的重大影响,并提出了促进可持续增长的适用政策建议,使本研究对从事经济和环境规划的决策者至关重要。本研究表明,所选国家的经济增长长期趋同,这是受到它们对可持续实践和管理环境保护的监管框架的不同承诺的影响。因此,无论各国及其环境政策的差异如何,从长远来看,不同的经济战略往往会产生相似的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Does financial development improve the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in the WAEMU? 金融发展是否改善了东亚经济联盟公共卫生支出对自付医疗费用的影响?
IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2024.11.003
Jacques Boundioa , Souleymane Diallo
To achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3, namely to ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all, it is important to have a sustainable health expenditure model. However, countries in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) are characterized by higher levels of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. This situation limits access to medical care, makes many people vulnerable to poverty and deviates from the goal of universal health coverage (UHC). This article analyzes the effect of public health expenditure on out-of-pocket payments for healthcare in WAEMU over the period 2000–2020 by taking into account financial development. With the quantile regression technique for panel data, the results show that the increase in public health expenditure leads to a reduction in out-of-pocket payments for healthcare. Moreover, the decrease becomes more significant when public health expenditure interacts with financial development. Thus, improving protection against financial risk related to health expenditure borne by households in the WAEMU requires the establishment of a well-developed health financing system oriented towards an increase in public health expenditure. Policies aimed at further developing the financial sector could have a multiplier effect on the reduction of out-of-pocket payments for healthcare through public expenditure.
为实现可持续发展目标3,即确保健康生活和促进所有人的福祉,必须建立可持续的卫生支出模式。然而,西非经济和货币联盟(WAEMU)国家的特点是医疗保健的自付水平较高。这种情况限制了获得医疗服务的机会,使许多人容易陷入贫困,并偏离了全民健康覆盖的目标。本文通过考虑金融发展,分析了2000-2020年期间WAEMU公共卫生支出对自付医疗费用的影响。利用分位数回归技术对面板数据进行分析,结果表明,公共卫生支出的增加导致医疗保健自付费用的减少。此外,当公共卫生支出与财政发展相互作用时,减少幅度会更大。因此,要提高对家庭卫生支出相关财务风险的防范,就需要建立完善的卫生融资体系,以增加公共卫生支出为目标。旨在进一步发展金融部门的政策可以产生乘数效应,通过公共支出减少医疗保健的自付费用。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Policy Modeling
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