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Export policy cooperation in a pandemic: the good, the bad and the hopeful 大流行病中的出口政策合作:好的、坏的和有希望的
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12552
Gerda Dewit, Dermot Leahy

We develop a model in which vaccine-producing firms from different developed countries supply vaccines to the developing world during a pandemic. Exporting countries experience a negative externality from incomplete global vaccination, which they try to mitigate by exporting vaccines to developing countries. A cooperative export policy is compared to the alternative regimes of non-cooperation and non-intervention. When the negative externality is low, cooperation among exporting countries is worse for global welfare than non-intervention. However, at high externality levels, export policy cooperation is globally superior to non-cooperative export subsidization. It then even has the potential to maximize global welfare.

我们开发了一个模型,在该模型中,来自不同发达国家的疫苗生产公司在大流行期间向发展中国家供应疫苗。出口国经历了全球疫苗接种不完整的负面外部性,它们试图通过向发展中国家出口疫苗来减轻这种外部性。将合作出口政策与不合作和不干预的替代制度进行比较。当负外部性较低时,出口国之间的合作比不干预更不利于全球福利。然而,在高外部性水平上,出口政策合作在全球范围内优于非合作出口补贴。它甚至有可能使全球福利最大化。
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引用次数: 0
Employer cooperation, productivity and wages: new evidence from inter-firm formal network agreements 雇主合作、生产率和工资:来自企业间正式网络协议的新证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12553
Francesco Devicienti, Elena Grinza, Alessandro Manello, Davide Vannoni

Using uniquely rich administrative matched employer–employee data for Italy from 2008 to 2018, we investigate the impact of firms' formal network agreements (FNAs) on firm performance and employee wages. We find an overall significant and economically relevant positive effect of FNAs on various measures of firm performance, but there are no tangible benefits for the workers, and wages decrease slightly, on average. There is, however, marked heterogeneity in the impact on both firms and workers. Estimated rent-sharing equations, as well as other tests that exploit unionization data, suggest that the negative effects on wages can be explained by a decrease in workers' bargaining power following the introduction of FNAs.

利用意大利2008年至2018年独特丰富的行政匹配雇主-雇员数据,我们研究了企业正式网络协议(fna)对企业绩效和员工工资的影响。我们发现,FNAs对企业绩效的各种衡量指标具有总体上显著的、经济上相关的积极影响,但对工人没有切实的好处,平均而言,工资略有下降。然而,对企业和工人的影响存在明显的异质性。估计的租金分摊方程,以及利用工会数据的其他测试表明,对工资的负面影响可以用引入fna后工人议价能力的下降来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary policy communication shocks and the macroeconomy 货币政策沟通冲击与宏观经济
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-14 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12550
Robert Goodhead, Benedikt Kolb

Using high-frequency identification, we provide evidence that Fed communication surprises have larger macroeconomic effects than surprise actions. Three ingredients are central to show this: structurally distinguishing between Fed actions and communication, controlling for the Fed information effect, and including the surprise measures directly in a vector autoregression (VAR) system instead of using them as instruments. We also compare the macroeconomic effects of Fed communication surprises relating to varying horizons into the future. Fed communication with a two-year horizon appears most powerful during the effective lower-bound period, consistent with theoretical predictions regarding Fed forward guidance.

利用高频识别,我们提供了美联储沟通意外比行动意外对宏观经济影响更大的证据。要证明这一点,有三个核心要素:从结构上区分美联储的行动和沟通,控制美联储的信息效应,以及将意外措施直接纳入向量自回归(VAR)系统,而不是将其作为工具。我们还比较了美联储沟通意外对未来不同期限的宏观经济影响。在有效下限期间,美联储两年期限的信息通报似乎最为有力,这与美联储前瞻性指导的理论预测一致。
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引用次数: 0
Why gender norms matter 为什么性别规范很重要
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12551
Ryo Sakamoto, Miki Kohara

This study examines the influence of gender norms on household behaviour and welfare. Using Japanese household data, we find that households with a conventional norm on gender roles spend more time on housework and less money on family-common goods. To understand the underlying mechanism, we construct a collective labour supply model that explicitly introduces gender norms. We show that an inefficient ratio of wives' household time to that of husbands leads to an increase in the shadow price of domestic goods, through which the norm distorts the time and money allocated to home production and decreases household welfare.

本研究探讨了性别规范对家庭行为和福利的影响。利用日本的家庭数据,我们发现在性别角色上有传统规范的家庭会在家务劳动上花费更多的时间,在家庭共同财产上花费更少的金钱。为了理解其背后的机制,我们构建了一个明确引入性别规范的集体劳动力供给模型。我们的研究表明,妻子家务劳动时间与丈夫家务劳动时间的低效比例会导致家庭产品影子价格的上升,从而扭曲了分配给家庭生产的时间和金钱,降低了家庭福利。
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引用次数: 0
The determinants of trust: findings from large, representative samples in six OECD countries 信任的决定因素:从六个经合组织国家的大型代表性样本中得出的结论
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12549
Roxanne Kovacs, Maurice Dunaiski, Matteo M. Galizzi, Gianluca Grimalda, Rafael Hortala-Vallve, Fabrice Murtin, Louis Putterman

Trust is key for economic and social development. But why do we trust others? We study the motives behind trust in strangers using an experimental trust game played by 7236 participants, in six samples representative of the general populations of Germany, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the UK and the USA. We examine the broadest range of potential determinants of trustor sending to date, including risk tolerance, preferences for redistribution, and conformity. We find that even though self-interest, indicated by expected returns, is relevant for trustor behaviour, the most important correlate of sending is participants' altruism or fairness concerns, as measured by giving in a dictator game. We also find that in our large and representative sample, behaviour in the trust game and responses in a trust survey are significantly correlated, and that similar correlates—altruism in particular—are relevant for both.

信任是经济和社会发展的关键。但我们为什么要信任他人呢?我们在德国、意大利、日本、卢森堡、英国和美国的六个具有代表性的样本中,通过一个由 7236 名参与者参与的实验性信任游戏,研究了信任陌生人背后的动机。我们研究了迄今为止最广泛的信任者发送信息的潜在决定因素,包括风险承受能力、再分配偏好和顺从性。我们发现,尽管以预期收益为指标的自身利益与受托人行为相关,但最重要的发送相关因素是参与者的利他主义或对公平的关注,以独裁者游戏中的捐赠来衡量。我们还发现,在我们这个具有代表性的大型样本中,信任游戏中的行为与信任调查中的回答有显著的相关性,而且类似的相关性--尤其是利他主义--与两者都有关系。
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引用次数: 0
Hours of work and the long-run effects of in-work transfers 工时和在职转移的长期影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12548
David Goll, Robert Joyce, Tom Waters

Policymakers have increasingly turned to ‘in-work transfers’ to boost incomes among poorer workers and strengthen work incentives. One attraction of these is that labour supply elasticities are typically greatest at the extensive margin. Because in-work transfers are normally subject to earnings-related phase-outs, they tend to most strongly incentivize part-time work, weakening incentives to increase hours beyond that. But if part-time work generates relatively little in the way of human capital and career progression, then policy design should factor in the longer-term consequences of labour supply choices along the intensive margin. To that end, we use a dynamic model of female labour supply with endogenous human capital accumulation, and study actual and hypothetical welfare reforms in the UK. We show that for a given expansion in the government budget, those reforms that incentivize full-time work can do considerably more to increase incomes, including among poorer households, and to raise welfare. Our results suggest that in-work transfers could be refined by paying greater attention to the intensive margin effects through the design of their phase-outs.

政策制定者越来越多地转向 "在职转移",以提高贫困工人的收入并加强工作激励。这些措施的一个吸引力在于,劳动力供给弹性通常在广义边际上是最大的。由于 "在职转移支付 "通常会受到与收入相关的阶段性限制,因此往往会对非全时工作产生最大的激励作用,从而削弱增加非全时工作时间的动力。但是,如果非全日制工作产生的人力资本和职业发展相对较少,那么政策设计就应该考虑到劳动力供给选择在密集边际上的长期后果。为此,我们使用了一个内生人力资本积累的女性劳动力供给动态模型,并研究了英国实际的和假设的福利改革。我们的研究结果表明,在政府预算扩大的情况下,激励全职工作的改革可以大大增加收入,包括贫困家庭的收入,并提高福利水平。我们的研究结果表明,在职转移支付可以通过逐步取消的设计更加关注其密集边际效应来加以完善。
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引用次数: 0
Export competition with China and firms' coping strategies 与中国的出口竞争和企业的应对策略
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12542
Katariina Nilsson Hakkala, Yao Pan

This paper analyses how intensified Chinese competition in export markets affects firms' coping strategies. Using a novel identification approach that exploits changes in China's product-specific export policies across industries, we find that Chinese export competition reduces the aggregate value of product- and destination-specific exports of Finland, primarily by putting a downward pressure on export prices. The firm-level analysis using Finnish administrative data shows that firms undertake larger price cuts for homogeneous products than for differentiated export products. We analyse further export firms' coping strategies on product range margin, and find that firms drop their marginal products as the Chinese export competition intensifies. Our results highlight the increasing importance of competition with China for exporters from developed countries.

本文分析了中国出口市场竞争的加剧如何影响企业的应对策略。我们采用一种新颖的识别方法,利用中国各行业特定产品出口政策的变化,发现中国的出口竞争主要通过对出口价格施加下行压力,降低了芬兰特定产品和目的地的出口总值。利用芬兰行政数据进行的企业层面分析表明,企业对同质产品的降价幅度大于差异化出口产品。我们进一步分析了出口企业在产品范围利润率方面的应对策略,发现随着中国出口竞争的加剧,企业会降低其边际产品的价格。我们的研究结果凸显了与中国的竞争对发达国家出口商的日益重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Wage–price spirals: what is the historical evidence? 工资-价格螺旋:历史证据是什么?
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12543
Jorge Alvarez, John Christopher Bluedorn, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Youyou Huang, Evgenia Pugacheva, Alexandre Sollaci

How common are wage–price spirals, and what has happened in their aftermath? We construct a new historical database of wage–price spirals—identified as episodes with consumer price inflation and average nominal wage growth rising jointly for at least a year—going back to the 1960s for a large sample of advanced economies. We find that only about a quarter of such episodes were followed by sustained accelerations in wages and prices. Instead, nominal wage growth and inflation tended to stabilize at a higher level on average, and then gradually revert, with real wage growth broadly unchanged. A decomposition of average wage dynamics during wage–price spiral episodes using a wage Phillips curve suggests that nominal wage growth normally stabilizes at levels consistent with observed inflation and labour market tightness. After historical episodes exhibiting rising inflation, falling real wages, and tightening labour markets—similar to what was observed in the early post-COVID-19 recovery in 2021—inflation tended to decline and nominal wage growth to rise, allowing real wages to gradually catch up. Our findings suggest that an acceleration of nominal wages against a backdrop of rising inflation does not necessarily signal that a persistent wage–price spiral dynamic is taking hold.

工资-价格螺旋有多常见,其后发生了什么?我们构建了一个新的工资-物价螺旋上升历史数据库,将消费物价通胀和平均名义工资增长共同上升至少一年的事件定义为工资-物价螺旋上升。我们发现,只有约四分之一的此类事件之后工资和物价持续加速上涨。相反,名义工资增长和通胀平均趋于稳定在一个较高的水平,然后逐渐回落,实际工资增长大致保持不变。利用工资菲利普斯曲线对工资-物价螺旋上升时期的平均工资动态进行分解,表明名义工资增长通常稳定在与观察到的通胀和劳动力市场紧张程度一致的水平上。在出现通胀上升、实际工资下降和劳动力市场收紧的历史性事件后(类似于 2021 年 COVID-19 后的早期复苏),通胀趋于下降,名义工资增长上升,从而使实际工资逐步赶上。我们的研究结果表明,在通胀上升的背景下,名义工资的加速增长并不一定意味着工资-物价螺旋上升的动态正在持续。
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引用次数: 0
Goods market desirability of minimum wages 最低工资在商品市场上的可取性
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12544
Rui Pan, Dao-Zhi Zeng

This paper presents a general equilibrium model incorporating heterogeneous firms and a perfectly competitive labour market to explore the desirability of minimum wages. We demonstrate that a low minimum wage could enhance social welfare, assuming equal weighting for all individuals. This occurs because the introduction of minimum wages has the potential to mitigate the goods market distortions arising from imperfect competition, firm heterogeneity and free entry. Additionally, we illustrate that the optimal minimum wage is positively associated with the preference intensity for differentiated products relative to the numeraire and population size, while it negatively correlates with the degree of love for variety, entry cost, and upper bound of marginal labour requirements.

本文提出了一个包含异质企业和完全竞争劳动力市场的一般均衡模型,以探讨最低工资的可取性。我们证明,假设所有个体的权重相同,低最低工资可以提高社会福利。这是因为引入最低工资有可能缓解因不完全竞争、企业异质性和自由进入而导致的商品市场扭曲。此外,我们还说明,最优最低工资与相对于货币和人口规模的差异化产品偏好强度正相关,而与对多样性的喜爱程度、进入成本和边际劳动力需求上限负相关。
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引用次数: 0
Economic and financial integration, capital controls, and risk sharing 经济和金融一体化、资本管制和风险分担
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12545
Michael Donadelli, Ivan Gufler

We analyse economic (EI) and financial (FI) integration, and their effects on international consumption risk sharing (RS) across 40 countries, including 21 developed (DEV) and 19 emerging (EM) markets, from 1995 to 2019. Utilizing the metric for EI and FI of Akbari et al. (2020, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 55, 2270–303), and various RS proxies, we find that increasing EI reduces RS in EM, while FI enhances it. Conversely, there is no evidence that EI or FI influences RS in DEV, contradicting theoretical predictions from international business cycle models. These results remain robust when controlling for trade and financial openness and capital flow restrictions. Additionally, we investigate the direct influence of capital controls on market integration. Relaxing equity inflow controls significantly enhances market integration, specifically boosting EI in DEV, and FI in EM. In contrast, equity outflow restrictions and controls on other asset categories do not significantly impact market integration. Our findings challenge the idea that simply removing legal restrictions on international capital flows is sufficient or necessary to achieve greater market integration and improved RS. This underscores the perspective that adjustments in capital controls alone may not ensure macro-financial stability.

我们分析了 1995 至 2019 年间 40 个国家的经济(EI)和金融(FI)一体化及其对国际消费风险分担(RS)的影响,其中包括 21 个发达国家(DEV)和 19 个新兴市场(EM)。利用 Akbari 等人(2020 年,《金融与定量分析期刊》,55,2270-303)的 EI 和 FI 指标以及各种 RS 代用指标,我们发现,EI 的增加会降低新兴市场的 RS,而 FI 则会增强 RS。相反,没有证据表明 EI 或 FI 会影响发展中经济体的 RS,这与国际商业周期模型的理论预测相矛盾。在控制贸易和金融开放度以及资本流动限制的情况下,这些结果仍然是稳健的。此外,我们还研究了资本管制对市场一体化的直接影响。放宽股票流入管制会明显促进市场一体化,特别是促进发展中经济体的 EI 和新兴经济体的 FI。相比之下,股票流出限制和对其他资产类别的管制对市场一体化的影响不大。我们的研究结果对以下观点提出了质疑,即仅仅取消对国际资本流动的法律限制就足以或必须实现更大程度的市场一体化和改善 RS。这突出表明,仅调整资本管制可能无法确保宏观金融稳定。
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引用次数: 0
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Economica
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