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Beyond cultural norms: how does historical rice farming affect modern firms' family control? 超越文化规范:历史上的水稻种植如何影响现代企业的家族控制?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12519
Chenchen Fan, Mingming Jiang, Bo Zhang

The private sector contributes the majority of China's GDP, with family firms responsible for most of the contribution. Prior studies find that firms' family control is influenced by certain cultural norms, such as family ties. This study explores the underlying historical and agricultural roots of these cultural norms that influence modern businesses. Combining a set of high-quality, nationally representative Chinese firm and household surveys with prefectural data, we first show the positive impact of rice farming on family control of local firms. We establish robust causal inferences by exploring the impact of historical agricultural legacies and discussing alternative measures, spatial autocorrelations, omitted variables, instrumental variables and self-selection. More importantly, our results demonstrate that the rice cultivation practice enhances the local people's preferences for strong family ties. Instead of claiming a direct role of these cultural traits as in the existing literature, we recast them as cultural mediators and persistent channels through which historical rice farming can shape contemporary corporate structure.

民营企业贡献了中国国内生产总值的绝大部分,而家族企业则承担了其中的大部分。先前的研究发现,企业的家族控制权受到某些文化规范的影响,如家族纽带。本研究探讨了这些影响现代企业的文化规范的历史和农业根源。结合一组高质量、具有全国代表性的中国企业和家庭调查以及县级数据,我们首先展示了水稻种植对当地企业家族控制权的积极影响。我们探讨了历史农业遗产的影响,讨论了替代措施、空间自相关性、遗漏变量、工具变量和自我选择,从而建立了稳健的因果推论。更重要的是,我们的研究结果表明,水稻种植实践增强了当地人对紧密家庭关系的偏好。我们并没有像现有文献那样宣称这些文化特质发挥了直接作用,而是将其重塑为文化中介和持久渠道,通过这些渠道,历史上的水稻种植可以塑造当代的企业结构。
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引用次数: 0
Unequal ground: oil booms and income inequality in the USA 不平等的土地:美国的石油繁荣与收入不平等
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12517
Loujaina Abdelwahed, Cole Campbell

This paper examines the impact of oil price and quantity shocks on income inequality in the USA. Using micro income data, we construct measures of pre-tax money income inequality at the state level for the period 1980–2017. We find that a $10 increase in oil price increases inequality, measured by the ratio of pre-tax income of the 90th percentile to 10th percentile (p90/p10), by 3.8 percentage points in states with high levels of oil endowments per capita. The increase in capital income to households at the top of the distribution drives the observed change in inequality. In addition to price shocks, we study the impact of quantity shocks that arise from oil discoveries. Quantity shocks have no effect on the overall income distribution.

本文研究了石油价格和数量冲击对美国收入不平等的影响。利用微观收入数据,我们构建了 1980-2017 年期间各州税前货币收入不平等的衡量指标。我们发现,在人均石油禀赋水平较高的州,油价每上涨 10 美元,以第 90 百分位数与第 10 百分位数的税前收入之比(p90/p10)衡量的不平等程度就会增加 3.8 个百分点。处于分配顶端的家庭的资本收入增加推动了所观察到的不平等变化。除了价格冲击外,我们还研究了石油发现带来的数量冲击的影响。数量冲击对总体收入分配没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring maternal autonomy and its effect on child nutrition in rural India 衡量印度农村地区产妇自主权及其对儿童营养的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12518
Wiji Arulampalam, Anjor Bhaskar, Nisha Srivastava

This paper examines the link between a mother's autonomy—the freedom and ability to think, express, make decisions and act independently—and the nutritional status of her children. We treat ‘autonomy’ as a latent variable, and design a novel statistical framework to measure this. This method allows us to separate the direct associations of maternal and family characteristics in our model for nutrition, from their indirect associations that work through maternal autonomy. Using data from India, we explore the sensitivity of our estimates to endogeneity caused by sample selection in the presence of son preference. We find: (i) a one standard deviation (SD) higher autonomy score is associated with a 0.16 SD higher height-for-age z-score (HAZ score); and (ii) a 10% lower prevalence of stunting (HAZ < −2 SD). The latter is equivalent to the prevention of approximately 300,000 children stunting, indicating the important role of maternal autonomy.

本文探讨了母亲的自主性(独立思考、表达、决策和行动的自由和能力)与子女营养状况之间的联系。我们将 "自主性 "视为一个潜在变量,并设计了一个新颖的统计框架来测量这一变量。通过这种方法,我们可以将营养模型中母亲和家庭特征的直接关联与通过母亲自主性发挥作用的间接关联区分开来。利用印度的数据,我们探讨了在存在儿子偏好的情况下,我们的估计值对样本选择引起的内生性的敏感性。我们发现(i) 高一个标准差(SD)的自主性得分与高 0.16 个标准差的身高-年龄 z 分数(HAZ 分数)相关;以及 (ii) 发育迟缓发生率降低 10%(HAZ < -2 SD)。后者相当于防止约 30 万儿童发育迟缓,表明了母亲自主的重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Do wages underestimate the inequality in workers' rewards? The joint distribution of job quality and wages across occupations 工资是否低估了工人报酬的不平等?工作质量和工资在不同职业中的共同分布
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12516
Andrew E. Clark, Maria Cotofan, Richard Layard

Information on both wages and job quality is needed in order to understand the occupational dispersion of wellbeing. We analyse subjective wellbeing in a large UK sample to construct a measure of ‘overall reward’, the sum of wages and the value of job quality, in 90 different occupations. If only wages are included, then labour market inequality is underestimated: the dispersion of overall rewards is one-third larger than the dispersion of wages. Our findings are similar, and stronger, in data on US workers. We find a positive correlation between job quality and wages in all specifications, both between individuals in the cross-section and within individuals in panel data. The gender and ethnic gaps in the labour market are larger than those in wages alone, and the overall rewards to education on the labour market are underestimated by earnings differentials alone.

要了解幸福感的职业分布情况,需要工资和工作质量两方面的信息。我们对英国大量样本的主观幸福感进行了分析,从而构建了 90 种不同职业的 "总体报酬 "衡量标准,即工资和工作质量价值的总和。如果只包括工资,那么劳动力市场的不平等就会被低估:总体报酬的离散度比工资的离散度大三分之一。我们的研究结果与美国工人的数据类似,而且更为有力。我们发现,无论是在横截面数据中的个体之间,还是在面板数据中的个体内部,工作质量与工资之间在所有规格中都存在正相关。劳动力市场上的性别和种族差距比单纯的工资差距更大,而且单纯的收入差距低估了劳动力市场上教育的总体回报。
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引用次数: 0
Market power and monetary policy transmission 市场力量与货币政策传导
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12512
Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, Raphaël Lee, Marina M. Tavares

We show that firms' market power dampens the response of their output to monetary policy shocks, using firm-level data for the USA and a large cross-country firm-level dataset for 14 advanced economies. We also find some evidence that the role of markups in monetary policy transmission, while independent from other channels, is greater for firms whose characteristics—notably size and age—are likely to be associated with greater financial constraints.

我们利用美国的企业层面数据和 14 个发达经济体的大型跨国企业层面数据集表明,企业的市场力量会抑制其产出对货币政策冲击的反应。我们还发现了一些证据,表明加价在货币政策传导中的作用虽然与其他渠道无关,但对于那些其特征--尤其是规模和年龄--可能与更大的金融约束相关的企业来说,加价的作用更大。
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引用次数: 0
Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe 欧洲的经济不安全和对民粹主义的需求
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12513
L. Guiso, H. Herrera, M. Morelli, T. Sonno

We document the spiral of populism in Europe and the direct and indirect role of economic insecurity shocks. Using survey data on individual voting, we make two contributions to the literature. (i) Economic insecurity shocks have a significant impact on the populist vote share, directly as demand for protection, and indirectly through the induced changes in trust and attitudes. (ii) A key consequence of increased economic insecurity is a drop in turnout. The impact of this largely neglected turnout effect is substantial: conditional on voting, when economic insecurity increases, almost 40% of the induced change in the vote for a populist party comes from the turnout channel.

我们记录了民粹主义在欧洲的螺旋式上升,以及经济不安全冲击的直接和间接作用。利用个人投票的调查数据,我们对文献做出了两点贡献。(i) 经济不安全冲击对民粹主义的得票率有重大影响,直接表现为对保护的需求,间接表现为信任和态度的变化。(ii) 经济不安全加剧的一个主要后果是投票率下降。这一在很大程度上被忽视的投票率效应的影响是巨大的:在投票的条件下,当经济不安全感增加时,民粹主义政党得票率的诱导变化有近 40% 来自投票率渠道。
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引用次数: 0
The wage curve after the Great Recession 大衰退后的工资曲线
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-12 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12515
David Blanchflower, Alex Bryson, Jackson Spurling

Most economists maintain that the labour market in the USA (and elsewhere) is ‘tight’ because unemployment rates are low, and the Beveridge curve (the vacancies-to-unemployment ratio) is high. They infer from this that there is potential for wage-push inflation. However, real wages fell rapidly in 2022, and prior to that, real wages had been stagnant for some time. We show that unemployment is not key to understanding wage formation in the USA, and has not been since the Great Recession. Instead, we show that rates of underemployment (the percentage of workers with part-time hours who would prefer more hours) and the rate of inactivity (the percentage of the civilian adult population who are out of the labour force) reduce wage pressure in the USA. This finding holds in panel data with state and year fixed effects in both annual and quarterly data for the period 1980–2022, and is supportive of a wage curve that fits the data much better than a Phillips curve. The unemployment rate no longer enters significantly negative in wage equations, however specified, in the years since 2008.

大多数经济学家认为,美国(和其他国家)的劳动力市场 "紧张",因为失业率低,贝弗里奇曲线(职位空缺与失业率之比)高。他们由此推断,存在工资推动型通胀的潜力。然而,实际工资在 2022 年迅速下降,而在此之前,实际工资已经停滞了一段时间。我们的研究表明,失业率并不是理解美国工资形成的关键,自经济大衰退以来,失业率就不是关键。相反,我们的研究表明,美国的就业不足率(拥有兼职工作时间但希望增加工作时间的工人比例)和非在业率(脱离劳动力队伍的成年平民人口比例)降低了工资压力。在 1980-2022 年期间的年度和季度数据中,这一发现在带有州和年份固定效应的面板数据中都是成立的,并且支持比菲利普斯曲线更适合数据的工资曲线。自 2008 年以来,无论如何规定,失业率在工资方程中都不再出现明显的负值。
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引用次数: 0
On the inefficiency of non-competes in low-wage labour markets 论低工资劳动力市场中竞业禁止的低效率
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12514
Tristan Potter, Bart Hobijn, André Kurmann

We study the efficiency of non-compete agreements (NCAs) in an equilibrium model of labour turnover. The model is consistent with empirical studies showing that NCAs reduce turnover and average wages for low-wage workers. The model also predicts that, by reducing turnover, NCAs raise recruitment and employment. We show that optimal NCA policy: (i) is characterized by a Hosios-like condition that balances the benefits of higher employment against the costs of inefficient congestion and poaching; (ii) depends critically on the minimum wage; and (iii) alone cannot always achieve the constrained-efficient allocation—a result that also holds for optimal minimum wage policy—yet with both policies, efficiency is always attainable. To guide policymakers, we derive a sufficient statistic in the form of an easily computed employment threshold above which NCAs are necessarily inefficiently restrictive, and show that employment levels in current low-wage US labour markets typically exceed this threshold. Finally, we calibrate the model and show that Oregon's 2008 NCA ban for low-wage workers increased welfare modestly (by roughly 0.1%), and that if policymakers had also raised the minimum wage to its optimal level conditional on the enacted NCA ban (a 30% increase), then welfare would have increased more substantially—by over 1%.

我们在一个劳动力流动的均衡模型中研究了竞业禁止协议(NCA)的效率。该模型与实证研究一致,实证研究表明,竞业禁止协议降低了低工资工人的流动率和平均工资。该模型还预测,通过降低流动率,NCA 可以提高招聘和就业率。我们的研究表明,最优的非竞争性就业政策:(i) 具有类似于霍西奥斯条件的特点,可以在提高就业率的好处与低效率的拥堵和偷猎成本之间取得平衡;(ii) 关键取决于最低工资;(iii) 单靠非竞争性就业政策并不总能实现有约束的有效分配--这一结果同样适用于最优的最低工资政策--但在这两种政策的作用下,效率总是可以实现的。为了给政策制定者提供指导,我们以一个易于计算的就业阈值的形式推导出一个充分统计量,在该阈值之上,NCA必然是低效限制性的,并表明当前美国低工资劳动力市场的就业水平通常超过该阈值。最后,我们对模型进行了校准,结果表明俄勒冈州 2008 年针对低工资工人的 NCA 禁令仅适度增加了福利(约 0.1%),而如果政策制定者在颁布 NCA 禁令的条件下将最低工资提高到最佳水平(提高 30%),那么福利会有更大幅度的增加--超过 1%。
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引用次数: 0
Exchange rates and political uncertainty: the Brexit case 汇率与政治不确定性:英国脱欧案例
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-15 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12509
Paolo Manasse, Graziano Moramarco, Giulio Trigilia

This paper studies the impact of political risk on exchange rates. We focus on the Brexit Referendum as it provides a natural experiment where both exchange rate expectations and a time-varying political risk factor can be measured directly. We build a portfolio model that relates changes in the Leave probability to changes of the British pound's market price, both via expectations and via a political risk factor. We estimate the model for multilateral and bilateral British pound exchange rates. We find that the Leave probability predicts a depreciation of the pound, consistent with the outcome post-referendum, and that the time-varying political risk affects exchange rates independently.

本文研究政治风险对汇率的影响。我们关注英国脱欧公投,因为它提供了一个自然实验,可以直接衡量汇率预期和时变政治风险因素。我们建立了一个投资组合模型,通过预期和政治风险因素将脱欧概率的变化与英镑市场价格的变化联系起来。我们针对多边和双边英镑汇率对该模型进行了估计。我们发现,脱欧概率预测英镑贬值,这与公投后的结果一致,而时变政治风险对汇率的影响是独立的。
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引用次数: 0
The welfare effects of time reallocation: evidence from Daylight Saving Time 时间重新分配的福利效应:来自夏令时的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-10 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12510
Joan Costa-Font, Sarah Fleche, Ricardo Pagan

Daylight Saving Time (DST) is a widely adopted practice implemented by over 70 countries to align sunlight with day-to-day activities and reduce energy demands. However, we do not have a clear knowledge of how it affects individuals' welfare. Using a regression discontinuity combined with a difference-in-differences design, we find that the Spring DST transition causes a significant decline in life satisfaction. By inducing a reallocation of time, the transition into DST deteriorates sleep quality and increases time stress, which in turn affects physical and emotional health. Using an event study approach, we find that such effects persist for about six days after the DST transition. Conversely, we provide evidence that the Autumn DST transition gives rise to a significant increase in life satisfaction. Finally, using a simple cost-benefit analysis, we discuss the potential benefits of ending DST.

夏令时(DST)是一种被 70 多个国家广泛采用的做法,目的是使日照与日常活动保持一致并减少能源需求。然而,我们并不清楚夏令时对个人福利的影响。通过使用回归不连续与差异设计相结合的方法,我们发现春季 DST 过渡会导致生活满意度显著下降。通过诱导时间的重新分配,夏令时过渡会降低睡眠质量,增加时间压力,进而影响身体和情绪健康。利用事件研究法,我们发现这种影响在夏令时过渡后持续了大约六天。相反,我们提供的证据表明,秋季转换夏令时会显著提高生活满意度。最后,通过简单的成本效益分析,我们讨论了结束夏令时的潜在益处。
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引用次数: 0
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