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Forecasting the UK top 1% income share in a shifting world 预测不断变化的世界中英国收入最高的 1% 所占份额
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12533
Jennifer L. Castle, Jurgen A. Doornik, David F. Hendry

UK top income shares have varied hugely over the past two centuries, ranging from more than 30% to less than 7% of pre-tax national income allocated to the top 1 percentile. We build a congruent dynamic linear regression model of the top 1% income share allowing for economic, political and social factors. Saturation estimation is used to model outliers and trend breaks, proxying underlying structural changes driving income inequality in the UK. We use the model to forecast the top 1% income share over the last 15 years, and compare to a range of forecast devices. Despite a well-specified constant parameter model conditioning on significant explanatory variables, the best performing forecasts are obtained from a random walk and a smoothed random walk. These results are explained by the presence of shifts in the income share over the forecast period, resulting in forecasts from equilibrium correction models converging to the wrong equilibrium. Our best prediction for 2026 based on the most recent data from 2021 (a 5-year ahead projection) is that the pre-tax top 1% income share will remain at the most recent realized value of 12.7%, but there is a large degree of uncertainty, with a 95% confidence band ranging from 10% to 15.7%.

在过去的两个世纪中,英国的最高收入比例变化很大,最高 1%的收入占税前国民收入的比例从超过 30% 到不足 7%不等。考虑到经济、政治和社会因素,我们建立了最高 1%收入份额的同源动态线性回归模型。饱和估计用于对异常值和趋势断裂进行建模,以反映推动英国收入不平等的潜在结构性变化。我们使用该模型预测了过去 15 年最高 1%收入份额的变化情况,并与一系列预测工具进行了比较。尽管有一个以重要解释变量为条件的规范化常数参数模型,但随机漫步和平滑随机漫步的预测效果最好。这些结果的原因是,在预测期内收入份额发生了变化,导致均衡校正模型的预测趋近于错误的均衡。根据 2021 年的最新数据(提前 5 年预测),我们对 2026 年的最佳预测是税前最高 1%收入份额将保持在最新实现值 12.7%,但存在很大程度的不确定性,95%置信区间在 10%至 15.7%之间。
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引用次数: 0
Austerity and elections 紧缩与选举
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12534
Alberto Alesina, Gabriele Ciminelli, Davide Furceri, Giorgio Saponaro

This paper revisits the conventional but unproven wisdom that voters penalize governments for adopting fiscal austerity in a sample of advanced economies. We consider the composition of the austerity package and the economic manifesto of the implementing government, and find that austerity packages consisting mostly of tax hikes have a significant electoral cost, which is larger for government parties that campaigned on a free-market manifesto. Conversely, expenditure-based austerity is costlier for government parties that did not run on a small-government platform, but may be beneficial for those that did.

本文以发达经济体为样本,重新审视了选民会惩罚采取财政紧缩政策的政府这一传统但未经证实的观点。我们考虑了紧缩方案的构成和实施政府的经济宣言,发现主要由增税构成的紧缩方案会带来显著的选举成本,对于以自由市场宣言为竞选纲领的政府政党而言,这种成本更大。相反,对于那些不以小政府为竞选纲领的政府党来说,以支出为基础的紧缩政策成本更高,但对于那些以小政府为竞选纲领的政府党来说,紧缩政策可能是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
How the wellbeing function varies with age: the importance of income, health and social relations over the lifecycle 福祉功能如何随年龄变化:收入、健康和社会关系在生命周期中的重要性
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12528
Jürgen Bitzer, Erkan Gören, Heinz Welsch

Previous literature has identified income, health status and social relationships as the most important predictors of subjective wellbeing (SWB). In addition, the literature has identified a non-linear relationship between age and SWB, with a dip in SWB in midlife. Explanations of the non-linear age–SWB relationship include the notion of unmet aspirations and the idea that people's emotional response to the drivers of SWB changes with age. Against this background, we use representative longitudinal data for Germany (1992–2019) with about 570,000 observations for more than 88,000 individuals aged 16–105 years to investigate if and how the association between SWB and its main predictors changes over the lifecycle. Using fixed effects estimation to control for cohort effects and unobserved personal characteristics, we find that the marginal effects of income and social relationships vary with age in a wave-like fashion, while the positive marginal effect of good health status increases monotonically and progressively with age. Our results are similar for alternative measures of SWB (life satisfaction and living in misery), and for men and women separately. The age-related changes in the importance of income and social relationships for SWB found in this paper help to explain the relationship between age and SWB found in previous literature.

以往的文献指出,收入、健康状况和社会关系是预测主观幸福感(SWB)的最重要因素。此外,文献还发现年龄与主观幸福感之间存在非线性关系,中年时主观幸福感会下降。对年龄与主观幸福感非线性关系的解释包括:未满足的愿望和人们对主观幸福感驱动因素的情绪反应会随着年龄的增长而变化。在此背景下,我们利用德国具有代表性的纵向数据(1992-2019 年),对年龄在 16-105 岁之间的 88,000 多人进行了约 57 万次观察,研究了 SWB 及其主要预测因素之间的关系是否以及如何随着生命周期的变化而变化。通过使用固定效应估计来控制同龄人效应和未观察到的个人特征,我们发现收入和社会关系的边际效应随着年龄的增长而呈波浪式变化,而良好健康状况的正边际效应则随着年龄的增长而单调递增。对于 SWB 的其他衡量指标(生活满意度和生活在痛苦中)以及男性和女性,我们的结果也是相似的。本文所发现的收入和社会关系对全部门预算的重要性随年龄而发生的变化,有助于解释以往文献中发现的年龄与全部门预算之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
Ex ante transparency and corruption by networks 事前透明度和网络腐败
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12526
Mehmet Bac

This paper explains the structure of corruption networks as response to ex ante transparency, defined as visibility of authorities whose cooperation clients may need, in due course, to execute corrupt transactions. It also characterizes the optimal transparency policy given the network response, as a function of connection costs, sanctions, the corruption surplus and the detection probability (hence the anti-corruption budget and ex post transparency). Corruption chains may emerge in equilibrium if authority is expected to be shared by multiple offices, where the office with higher solo assignment probability becomes the intermediary. Otherwise, clients penetrate the bureaucracy by inducing the star network, or contend with single connection. I show that the optimal policy always assigns one office, sometimes alone, sometimes jointly with others. It is often possible to deter corruption networks through an ex ante transparent policy that parcels out authority to multiple offices with probability 1—a common feature of many US bureaucracies. Decomposing transparency into its components reveals nuances in the transparency–corruption relationship, suggesting that ex ante transparency is instrumental except in environments in which anti-corruption enforcement is extremely effective or extremely ineffective.

本文解释了腐败网络结构对事前透明度的反应,事前透明度被定义为当局的能见度,在适当的时候,客户可能需要当局的合作来执行腐败交易。本文还描述了网络响应下的最优透明度政策,它是连接成本、制裁、腐败盈余和侦查概率(即反腐败预算和事后透明度)的函数。如果预期多个部门共享权力,那么在均衡情况下可能会出现腐败链,其中独任概率较高的部门会成为中间人。否则,客户会通过诱导星形网络渗透到官僚机构中,或与单个连接竞争。我的研究表明,最优政策总是指派一个办公室,有时是单独指派,有时是与其他办公室共同指派。通常可以通过事先透明的政策来阻止腐败网络,这种政策将权力以概率 1 的方式分配给多个办公室--这是美国许多官僚机构的共同特点。将透明度分解为各个组成部分可以揭示透明度与腐败关系中的细微差别,这表明,除非在反腐败执法极其有效或极其无效的环境下,事前透明度才会起到作用。
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引用次数: 0
Follow the leader? The long-run interaction between public and private sector wage growth in the UK 追随领导者?英国公共部门和私营部门工资增长之间的长期互动关系
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12525
Peter Dolton, Arno Hantzsche

With one-fifth of the UK labour force employed in the public sector, public sector pay and its interaction with private sector pay is an important driver of the macroeconomy. Using new data on sector-level earnings and sector–industry-level pay settlements, this paper addresses the fundamental question of which sector leads and which follows in terms of earnings determination. We find that in the long run, public sector wages adjust to wages set in the private sector, maintaining a consistent relationship. We further find that there can be significant wage spillovers from the public sector to the private sector in the short run. These tend to be more pronounced for private sector industries that are domestically facing, characterized by low worker bargaining power, or reliant on public sector inputs. This paper's findings have important implications for macroeconomic policy that aims to balance inflationary forces and fiscal funding pressures.

英国五分之一的劳动力受雇于公共部门,因此公共部门薪酬及其与私营部门薪酬之间的互动是宏观经济的重要驱动力。本文利用部门一级收入和部门-行业一级薪酬结算的新数据,探讨了在收入决定方面哪个部门领先、哪个部门跟随的基本问题。我们发现,从长期来看,公共部门的工资会根据私营部门的工资水平进行调整,并保持一致的关系。我们还发现,在短期内,公共部门的工资会显著外溢到私营部门。对于面向国内、工人议价能力低或依赖公共部门投入的私营部门行业,这种溢出效应往往更为明显。本文的研究结果对旨在平衡通胀力量和财政资金压力的宏观经济政策具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
From unobserved to observed preference heterogeneity: a revealed preference methodology 从未被发现的偏好异质性到观察到的偏好异质性:揭示偏好的方法论
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-22 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12524
Laurens Cherchye, Dieter Saelens, Reha Tuncer

We present an easy-to-apply non-parametric revealed preference method to identify observed preference heterogeneity from cross-sectional data. Building on the partitioning approach that was developed by Crawford and Pendakur (Economic Journal, 2013, 123(567), 77–95) and Cosaert (Computational Economics, 2019, 53(2), 533–54), it quantifies the contribution of observable consumer characteristics to describing the identified preference heterogeneity. We demonstrate the practical usefulness of our method through an application to newly gathered experimental data on consumer choice behaviour in two types of decision situations: the allocation of money (choosing between two products) and the allocation of time (choosing between leisure and work). We investigate whether the same consumer characteristics drive the observed variation in choice behaviour in these two settings.

我们提出了一种易于应用的非参数揭示偏好方法,用于从横截面数据中识别观察到的偏好异质性。该方法以 Crawford 和 Pendakur(《经济学报》,2013 年,123(567), 77-95)以及 Cosaert(《计算经济学》,2019 年,53(2), 533-54)开发的分区方法为基础,量化了可观察消费者特征对描述已识别偏好异质性的贡献。我们将新收集的消费者选择行为实验数据应用于两类决策情境:金钱分配(在两种产品之间做出选择)和时间分配(在休闲和工作之间做出选择),以此证明我们的方法非常实用。我们研究了在这两种情况下观察到的选择行为变化是否受相同消费者特征的驱动。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of school grants on test scores: experimental evidence from Mexico 学校补助金对考试成绩的影响:墨西哥的实验证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-05 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12523
Mauricio Romero, Juan Bedoya, Monica Yanez-Pagans, Marcela Silveyra, Rafael de Hoyos

We use a randomized experiment (across 200 public primary schools in Puebla, Mexico) to study the impact of providing schools with cash grants on student test scores. Treated schools received on average $$ sim $$16 USD per student each year for two years, an increase of $$ sim $$20% in public spending per child, after teacher salaries. Overall, the grants had no impact on student test scores. Lack of a treatment effect does not seem to be driven by poor implementation or a substitution away from other inputs (e.g. household expenditure).

我们利用随机实验(墨西哥普埃布拉州 200 所公立小学)研究了向学校提供现金补助对学生考试成绩的影响。在两年的时间里,接受补助的学校平均每年每名学生获得 16 美元,除去教师工资,每名儿童的公共开支增加了 20%。总体而言,补助金对学生考试成绩没有影响。缺乏治疗效果似乎并不是因为执行不力或替代了其他投入(如家庭支出)。
{"title":"The effect of school grants on test scores: experimental evidence from Mexico","authors":"Mauricio Romero,&nbsp;Juan Bedoya,&nbsp;Monica Yanez-Pagans,&nbsp;Marcela Silveyra,&nbsp;Rafael de Hoyos","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12523","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ecca.12523","url":null,"abstract":"<p>We use a randomized experiment (across 200 public primary schools in Puebla, Mexico) to study the impact of providing schools with cash grants on student test scores. Treated schools received on average <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ sim $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>16 USD per student each year for two years, an increase of <span></span><math>\u0000 <semantics>\u0000 <mrow>\u0000 <mo>∼</mo>\u0000 </mrow>\u0000 <annotation>$$ sim $$</annotation>\u0000 </semantics></math>20% in public spending per child, after teacher salaries. Overall, the grants had no impact on student test scores. Lack of a treatment effect does not seem to be driven by poor implementation or a substitution away from other inputs (e.g. household expenditure).</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"91 363","pages":"980-995"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4,"publicationDate":"2024-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140597574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Neighbourhood labour structure, lockdown policies, and the uneven spread of COVID-19: within-city evidence from England 邻里劳动力结构、封锁政策和 COVID-19 的不均衡传播:英格兰城市内部的证据
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-02 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12522
Carlo Corradini, Jesse Matheson, Enrico Vanino

We estimate the importance of local labour structure in the spread of COVID-19 during the first year of the pandemic. We build a unique dataset across 6791 English neighbourhoods that distinguishes between people living (residents) and people working (workers) in a neighbourhood, and differentiate between jobs that can be done from home (homeworkers), jobs that likely continued on-site (keyworkers), and non-essential on-site jobs. We find that a 10 percentage points increase in keyworker jobs among residents is associated with 3.15 more cases per 1000 (4.8% relative to the mean), while a 10 percentage points increase in homeworker jobs among residents is associated with a decrease of 7.74 cases per 1000 (11.8% relative to the mean). Results for the composition of workers show the same sign, but smaller magnitudes. A dynamic analysis of the monthly incidence of reported cases shows that these relationships are particularly strong during lockdown periods. These results are heterogeneous across neighbourhoods, with larger positive effect of keyworkers, and lower protective effect of homeworkers, in higher deprivation areas. We explore the role of occupation skill intensity in driving these neighbourhood differences. These findings highlight important asymmetries in the distributional impact of the policy response to COVID-19.

我们估算了 COVID-19 大流行第一年期间当地劳动力结构在传播中的重要性。我们在英国 6791 个社区中建立了一个独特的数据集,该数据集区分了居住在社区中的人(居民)和工作的人(工人),并区分了可以在家完成的工作(家庭佣工)、可能继续在现场完成的工作(关键工人)和非必要的现场工作。我们发现,居民中的关键工人工作每增加 10 个百分点,每 1000 人中的病例数就会增加 3.15 例(相对于平均值增加 4.8%),而居民中的家庭工人工作每增加 10 个百分点,每 1000 人中的病例数就会减少 7.74 例(相对于平均值减少 11.8%)。工人构成的结果显示了相同的符号,但幅度较小。对每月报告病例发生率的动态分析显示,这些关系在封锁期间尤为紧密。这些结果在不同社区之间存在差异,在贫困程度较高的地区,关键工人的积极作用更大,而家庭工人的保护作用较小。我们探讨了职业技能强度在推动这些街区差异方面的作用。这些发现凸显了 COVID-19 政策应对措施在分配影响方面的重要不对称性。
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引用次数: 0
Debt, deficits and interest rates 债务、赤字和利率
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12521
Christopher D. Cotton

This paper identifies how a rise in the deficit/debt impacts interest rates by looking at the high-frequency response of interest rates to fiscal surprises. The fiscal surprises are the unexpected components of deficit releases and the changes in official forecasts by the Congressional Budget Office and by the Office of Management and Budget. The paper estimates that a rise in the deficit-to-GDP ratio of 1 percentage point raises the 10-year nominal interest rate by 8.1 basis points. The response is similar quantitatively for other Treasury maturities and for corporate debt interest rates. The paper also investigates which theoretical channel drives this relationship, and whether surprises affect interest rate expectations or the term premium. These results are used to estimate how recent spending may have affected interest rates.

本文通过观察利率对财政意外的高频反应,来确定赤字/债务增加对利率的影响。财政意外是指赤字公布的意外部分以及国会预算办公室和管理与预算办公室官方预测的变化。本文估计,赤字与国内生产总值的比率每上升 1 个百分点,10 年期名义利率就会上升 8.1 个基点。其他期限的国债和公司债利率也有类似的定量反应。本文还研究了驱动这种关系的理论渠道,以及意外是否会影响利率预期或期限溢价。这些结果可用于估算近期支出对利率的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Do management practices matter in further education? 继续教育中的管理实践重要吗?
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12520
Sandra McNally, Luis Schmidt, Anna Valero

Further education and sixth form colleges are key institutions for facilitating skill acquisition among 16–19 year olds in the UK. They enrol half a school cohort after completion of their lower secondary education, and this includes a disproportionate number from low-income backgrounds. Yet little is known about what could improve performance in these institutions. We conduct the world's first management practices survey in such institutions, and match this to administrative longitudinal data on over 40,000 students. Value-added regressions with rich controls suggest that structured management matters for educational outcomes, especially for students from low-income backgrounds. For this group, in a hypothetical scenario where an individual is moved from a college at the 10th percentile of management practices to the 90th, this would be associated with 8% higher probability of achieving a good high school qualification, nearly half of the educational gap between those from poor and non-poor backgrounds. Hence improving management practices may be an important channel for reducing inequalities.

在英国,继续教育学院和预科学院是促进 16-19 岁学生掌握技能的重要机构。它们招收了半数完成初中教育后的学生,其中包括过多来自低收入背景的学生。然而,人们对如何提高这些机构的绩效却知之甚少。我们在这些机构中进行了世界上首次管理实践调查,并将其与 40,000 多名学生的行政纵向数据相匹配。带有丰富控制措施的增值回归表明,结构化管理对教育成果至关重要,尤其是对低收入背景的学生而言。对这一群体而言,在假设情况下,如果一个人从管理实践排名第 10 位的大学升至第 90 位,那么他获得良好高中学历的概率将提高 8%,这几乎是来自贫困和非贫困背景的学生之间教育差距的一半。因此,改善管理实践可能是减少不平等的一个重要渠道。
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引用次数: 0
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Economica
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