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What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia 如果?停止从俄罗斯进口能源对德国宏观经济和分配的影响
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12546
Rüdiger Bachmann, David Baqaee, Christian Bayer, Moritz Kuhn, Andreas Löschel, Benjamin Moll, Andreas Peichl, Karen Pittel, Moritz Schularick

This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi-sector open-economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut-off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP.

本文讨论了德国经济可能被切断从俄罗斯进口能源的经济影响。我们使用了一个多部门开放经济模型和一种基于总生产函数的简化方法来估算能源投入冲击的影响。我们的研究表明,由于能源进口的替代和生产链的重新分配,影响可能会很大,但可以控制。在短期内,相对于没有能源中断的基线情况,俄罗斯停止能源进口将导致产出损失,损失范围在国内生产总值的 0.5% 到 3% 之间。
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引用次数: 0
More dads at home, more girls in maths-intensive studies? Evidence from a parental leave reform 更多父亲在家,更多女孩学习数学?育儿假改革的证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12547
Sara Mikkelsen, Noemi Peter

Evidence suggests that separate spheres gender norms discourage girls from maths. We therefore examine a policy that counteracts such norms among parents, and investigate whether it increases girls' participation in maths-intensive studies. Specifically, we examine a parental leave reform that reserved one month of leave for fathers, and estimate its effect on children's study choices. We find that the reform increases the probability of doing a maths-intensive programme in upper secondary education among girls whose father was otherwise reluctant to take leave. There is no effect on boys. We also conduct heterogeneity analyses to investigate whether the results can be explained by human capital transmission or the gender norms mechanism. The results of our analyses suggest that the gender norms mechanism is at play.

有证据表明,独立领域的性别规范阻碍了女孩学习数学。因此,我们研究了一项在父母中抵制这种规范的政策,并调查它是否会增加女孩对数学密集型学习的参与。具体而言,我们研究了一项为父亲保留一个月假期的育儿假改革,并估算了其对子女学习选择的影响。我们发现,对于那些父亲不愿意休假的女孩来说,改革增加了她们在高中阶段学习数学密集课程的概率。对男孩则没有影响。我们还进行了异质性分析,以研究这些结果是否可以用人力资本传递或性别规范机制来解释。分析结果表明,性别规范机制在起作用。
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引用次数: 0
Recent trends in firm-level total factor productivity in the UK: new measures, new puzzles 英国企业级全要素生产率的最新趋势:新措施、新困惑
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12541
Diane Coyle, John McHale, Ioannis Bournakis, Jen-Chung Mei

Understanding the poor productivity performance of the UK economy since the financial crisis is complicated by the well-known challenges in estimating total factor productivity (TFP) using only revenue data. We develop a structural framework to infer quality-adjusted TFP from an estimated firm-level revenue function. We use microdata for two sectors previously identified as being significant contributors to the UK's productivity growth slowdown—manufacturing and ICT—from 2008 to 2019. The revenue function is estimated using the Blundell–Bond System GMM estimator. We also use an alternative cost-shares approach to identifying and measuring TFP. For both methods, we find an overall fall in TFP levels in manufacturing and a rise in ICT. We find a striking decline of between 13% and 18% in the level of within-firm manufacturing TFP, and of between 11% and 16% in ICT, although with reallocation effects differing between the two sectors. The finding of declining within-firm TFP is robust, although the magnitude varies between methods. We discuss a possible explanation for this extended UK productivity puzzle based on the relative underperformance of UK firms in international markets.

众所周知,仅使用收入数据来估算全要素生产率(TFP)存在诸多挑战,这使得理解金融危机以来英国经济生产率表现不佳的问题变得更加复杂。我们建立了一个结构框架,从估算的企业收入函数中推断出质量调整后的全要素生产率。我们使用了 2008 年至 2019 年两个行业的微观数据--制造业和信息通信技术--这两个行业此前被认为是英国生产率增长放缓的重要原因。收入函数使用布伦德尔-邦德系统 GMM 估计器进行估计。我们还使用了另一种成本份额方法来识别和衡量全要素生产率。在这两种方法中,我们发现制造业的全要素生产率水平总体下降,而信息和通信技术的全要素生产率水平上升。我们发现,企业内部制造业全要素生产率水平显著下降了 13% 至 18%,信息和通信技术行业下降了 11% 至 16%,尽管这两个行业的重新分配效应有所不同。企业内部全要素生产率下降的结论是可靠的,尽管不同方法得出的幅度有所不同。我们基于英国公司在国际市场上的相对不佳表现,讨论了对英国生产率之谜的可能解释。
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引用次数: 0
Did COVID-19 induce a reallocation wave? COVID-19 是否引发了重新分配浪潮?
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-24 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12538
Agostino Consolo, Filippos Petroulakis

We critically examine the hypothesis that COVID-19 has ushered in a large reallocation shock in the USA, beyond typical business cycle patterns. We take a broad perspective, and first consider data from the CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, either at the aggregate level or in the cross-section. The dispersion of sectoral growth rates over the three years before the pandemic was similar to the previous period. The recovery from the initial shock was characterized by very high quits and low layoffs, patterns indicative of a strong labour market, not excessively high reallocation relative to previous business cycles. High growth of small employers in the recovery, and larger ones once the labour market tightened, is also a common cyclical pattern. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment rose as a result of the pandemic; using an off-the-shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the unemployment rate during the pandemic. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labour market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to earlier episodes.

我们对 "COVID-19 在美国带来了巨大的重新分配冲击 "这一假设进行了批判性研究,它超越了典型的商业周期模式。我们从广阔的视角出发,首先考虑来自 CPS 和 JOLTS 的数据;无论是在总体水平上还是在横截面上,职业或行业转换都没有明显的上升。在大流行病发生前的三年里,各部门增长率的分散情况与前一时期相似。从最初的冲击中复苏的特点是高辞职率和低裁员率,这种模式表明劳动力市场强劲,而不是与以往的商业周期相比重新分配过多。在复苏过程中,小雇主的高增长,以及一旦劳动力市场收紧,雇主规模的扩大,也是一种常见的周期模式。然后,我们研究了错配失业率是否因大流行病而上升;使用现成的多部门搜索和匹配模型,几乎没有证据表明错配在推动大流行病期间的失业率方面发挥了重要作用。最后,我们采用了一种新颖的贝叶斯结构向量自回归框架,并对符号进行了限制,以确定重新分配冲击;我们发现,在解释大流行病期间的劳动力市场模式方面,重新分配冲击所起的作用相对较小,至少相对于早期的大流行病而言是如此。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous monitoring through voluntary reporting in an infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game: experimental evidence 在无限重复的囚徒困境博弈中通过自愿报告进行内生监督:实验证据
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12539
Kenju Kamei, Artem Nesterov

Exogenous reputational information is known to improve cooperation. This study experimentally investigates how people create such information by reporting their partner's action choices, and whether endogenous monitoring helps to sustain cooperation, in an indefinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game with random matching. The experimental results show that most subjects report their opponents' action choices, thereby successfully cooperating when reporting does not involve costs. However, when reporting is costly, participants are strongly discouraged from doing so. Consequently, they fail to achieve strong cooperative norms when the reported information is conveyed privately only to their next-round interaction partners. Costly reporting occurs only occasionally even when there is a public record whereby all future partners can check the reported information, but significantly more frequently relative to the condition in which it is sent to the next partner only. With public records, groups can foster cooperative norms aided by reported information that gradually accumulates and becomes more informative over time.

众所周知,外生声誉信息可以改善合作。本研究通过实验研究了在一个无限重复的随机匹配的囚徒困境博弈中,人们如何通过报告同伴的行动选择来创造这种信息,以及内生监督是否有助于维持合作。实验结果表明,大多数受试者都会报告对手的行动选择,从而在报告不涉及成本的情况下成功合作。然而,当报告需要付出代价时,被试就会极不情愿地报告。因此,当报告的信息只私下传达给下一轮的互动伙伴时,他们无法实现强有力的合作规范。即使有公开记录,所有未来的伙伴都可以查看所报告的信息,代价高昂的报告也只是偶尔发生,但相对于只向下一轮伙伴发送信息的情况,代价高昂的报告发生的频率要高得多。有了公开记录,随着时间的推移,所报告的信息会逐渐积累并变得更加翔实,从而帮助群体形成合作规范。
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引用次数: 0
The regional economics of mineral resource wealth in Africa 非洲矿产资源财富的区域经济学
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-19 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12540
Zareh Asatryan, Thushyanthan Baskaran, Carlo Birkholz, Patrick Hufschmidt

We study the regional economics of mineral resource activity in Africa. Using geocoded data on mine openings and closures in Africa, we document that mining regions experience local economic booms while a mine is in operation. We then explore how mineral resources affect non-mining regions. Non-mining regions might be affected by mining activity due to deliberate government policies (e.g. regional redistribution) or due to various inadvertent country-level macroeconomic adjustments (e.g. Dutch-Disease-type effects or declining institutional quality). Our results suggest that mineral resources have heterogeneous effects on non-mining regions. Politically important regions benefit economically, while generic non-mining regions are, in general, worse off. Exploring mechanisms, we find that these spatial patterns arguably emerge due to both deliberate government policies as well as Dutch-Disease-style macroeconomic adjustments that harm regions specializing in sectors other than mining.

我们研究了非洲矿产资源活动的地区经济学。利用非洲矿山开闭的地理编码数据,我们记录了矿区在矿山运营期间经历的地方经济繁荣。然后,我们探讨了矿产资源如何影响非矿区。非矿区可能会因政府的有意政策(如地区再分配)或各种无意的国家级宏观经济调整(如 "荷兰病 "式效应或制度质量下降)而受到采矿活动的影响。我们的研究结果表明,矿产资源对非矿区具有不同的影响。政治上重要的地区在经济上受益,而一般非矿业地区的情况则普遍较差。在探究其机制时,我们发现这些空间模式的出现可以说是由于政府有意制定的政策以及荷兰病式的宏观经济调整,这些调整损害了专门从事采矿以外行业的地区。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate culture as a theory of the firm 作为企业理论的企业文化
IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12537
Gary B. Gorton, Alexander K. Zentefis

Markets and firms offer contrasting methods to arrange production. In markets, contracts govern the purchase of parts and services. In firms, the shared values, customs and norms coming from a corporate culture govern employees' joint development of parts and services. We argue for this distinction as a theory of the firm. Firms exist because corporate culture at times is more efficient to carry out production than are detailed contracts. The firm's boundary encircles the areas of production for which a manager optimally chooses corporate culture as the organizing device. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model explains why some mergers and acquisitions fail, and why corporate cultures are hard to change.

市场和企业为安排生产提供了截然不同的方法。在市场中,购买零部件和服务需要签订合同。而在企业中,来自企业文化的共同价值观、习俗和规范管理着员工对零部件和服务的共同开发。我们将这种区别作为企业理论来论证。企业之所以存在,是因为企业文化有时比详细的合同更能有效地开展生产。企业的边界环绕着生产领域,在这些领域中,管理者最优化地选择企业文化作为组织手段。该模型与经验证据相一致,解释了为什么一些并购会失败,以及为什么企业文化难以改变。
{"title":"Corporate culture as a theory of the firm","authors":"Gary B. Gorton,&nbsp;Alexander K. Zentefis","doi":"10.1111/ecca.12537","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12537","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Markets and firms offer contrasting methods to arrange production. In markets, contracts govern the purchase of parts and services. In firms, the shared values, customs and norms coming from a corporate culture govern employees' joint development of parts and services. We argue for this distinction as a theory of the firm. Firms exist because corporate culture at times is more efficient to carry out production than are detailed contracts. The firm's boundary encircles the areas of production for which a manager optimally chooses corporate culture as the organizing device. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model explains why some mergers and acquisitions fail, and why corporate cultures are hard to change.</p>","PeriodicalId":48040,"journal":{"name":"Economica","volume":"91 364","pages":"1391-1423"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142142370","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Extending the formal state: the case of Pakistan's Frontier Crimes Regulation 扩展正规国家:巴基斯坦《边境犯罪条例》案例
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12527
Michael Callen, Saad Gulzar, Arman Rezaee, Jacob N. Shapiro

Why do modern states allow parts of their territory to be governed by non-state actors? We study this question using the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) in Pakistan, a British Colonial law abrogated only in 2018, which left governance to pre-colonial tribal councils in large parts of modern day Pakistan. In areas where the FCR did not apply, the British and then Pakistani state built modern political and bureaucratic institutions. Using primary legal documents, we build a dataset of when and where the FCR applied between 1901 and 2012. The territorial extent of the formal state is both cleanly demarcated by this law and varies substantially over time, permitting an empirical examination of the determinants of state control. The data reveal that the Green Revolution's potential to transform agriculture played a major role in extending the formal state. The law was repealed first from areas where agricultural productivity benefited the most from the Green Revolution. This is consistent with a model in which technological changes that shift the returns to control influence where states choose to govern.

为什么现代国家允许非国家行为者管理其部分领土?我们利用巴基斯坦的《边境犯罪条例》(Frontier Crimes Regulation,FCR)来研究这个问题,该条例是英国殖民时期的法律,直到 2018 年才被废除,它将现代巴基斯坦大部分地区的治理权留给了殖民前的部落委员会。在《边境犯罪条例》不适用的地区,英国和当时的巴基斯坦国家建立了现代政治和官僚机构。利用原始法律文件,我们建立了一个数据集,记录了 1901 年至 2012 年期间《联邦宪法》适用的时间和地点。正式国家的领土范围由该法律明确划定,并随着时间的推移而有很大变化,从而可以对国家控制的决定因素进行实证研究。数据显示,绿色革命改变农业的潜力在扩大正式国家范围方面发挥了重要作用。在绿色革命中农业生产力受益最大的地区,法律首先被废除。这与技术变革改变了控制权的回报率,从而影响国家选择在哪里治理的模型是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Pandemic distress and anti-immigration sentiments 大流行病的困扰和反移民情绪
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-28 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12536
Gianmarco Daniele, Andrea F. M. Martinangeli, Francesco Passarelli, Willem Sas, Lisa Windsteiger

We investigate the causal nexus between pandemic distress and anti-immigration sentiments. We exploit the disruption brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak to randomly provide survey respondents with information on the economic or health consequences of the pandemic. Overall, we find that pessimistic information about the economic outlook reinforces overall adversity to immigration and the wish to exclude immigrants from access to healthcare. This effect is less pronounced in areas with larger immigrant populations. Our theoretical model pins down two possible mechanisms explaining these results: a zero-sum game to split scarce public resources between residents and immigrants on the one hand, and on the other, fear of contagion.

我们研究了大流行病困扰与反移民情绪之间的因果关系。我们利用 Covid-19 爆发带来的混乱,随机向调查对象提供有关大流行病的经济或健康后果的信息。总体而言,我们发现,有关经济前景的悲观信息会加强对移民的整体敌意,并希望将移民排除在医疗保健之外。在移民人口较多的地区,这种影响并不明显。我们的理论模型确定了解释这些结果的两种可能机制:一方面是在居民和移民之间分配稀缺公共资源的零和博弈,另一方面是对传染的恐惧。
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引用次数: 0
Fading choice: transport costs and variety in consumer goods 逐渐消失的选择:消费品的运输成本和种类
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-05-26 DOI: 10.1111/ecca.12535
Jan Willem Gunning, Pramila Krishnan, Andualem T. Mengistu

We examine the spatial variation in variety of manufactured consumer goods to study how choice fades across space. We use data on 132 consumer goods and over 800 brands available from a purpose-designed survey of fixed shops and periodic market stalls in towns and villages in Ethiopia. We find that local consumer choice fades, with fewer varieties in remoter villages. On average, these villages have approximately half the number of available items compared to their nearest market town. A fall in travel time of a half-hour is associated with 4 extra goods and 9 brands. Variety also increases with inequality and market size. Furthermore, we estimate a model of heterogeneous consumers with a preference for variety and monopolistically competitive traders to disentangle the role of transport costs from the taste for variety, and to assess the consequences for prices. Our model estimates suggest that local consumer prices contain a markup of 8% above source town prices and transport costs. We demonstrate the significant costs to consumers from both low variety and high trade costs. Ignoring such costs means that poverty is underestimated in remote places. In turn, when infrastructure investments raise variety, the likely fall in poverty will be underestimated too.

我们考察了制成品消费品种类的空间变化,以研究选择是如何跨空间消退的。我们使用的数据涉及 132 种消费品和 800 多个品牌,这些数据来自对埃塞俄比亚城镇和乡村的固定商店和定期市场摊位进行的专门调查。我们发现,当地消费者的选择逐渐减少,偏远村庄的品种也越来越少。平均而言,与最近的集镇相比,这些村庄的可选商品数量约为集镇的一半。旅行时间每缩短半小时,就会多出 4 种商品和 9 个品牌。商品种类也会随着不平等和市场规模的扩大而增加。此外,我们还估算了一个偏好多样化的异质消费者和垄断竞争商贩的模型,以将运输成本的作用与对多样化的喜好区分开来,并评估其对价格的影响。我们的模型估计结果表明,当地消费者的价格比源头城市的价格和运输成本高出 8%。我们证明了低品种和高贸易成本给消费者带来的巨大损失。忽视这些成本意味着低估了偏远地区的贫困程度。反过来,当基础设施投资增加了产品种类时,贫困率的下降也会被低估。
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引用次数: 0
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Economica
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