Economica最新文献

This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi-sector open-economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut-off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP.

Evidence suggests that separate spheres gender norms discourage girls from maths. We therefore examine a policy that counteracts such norms among parents, and investigate whether it increases girls' participation in maths-intensive studies. Specifically, we examine a parental leave reform that reserved one month of leave for fathers, and estimate its effect on children's study choices. We find that the reform increases the probability of doing a maths-intensive programme in upper secondary education among girls whose father was otherwise reluctant to take leave. There is no effect on boys. We also conduct heterogeneity analyses to investigate whether the results can be explained by human capital transmission or the gender norms mechanism. The results of our analyses suggest that the gender norms mechanism is at play.

Understanding the poor productivity performance of the UK economy since the financial crisis is complicated by the well-known challenges in estimating total factor productivity (TFP) using only revenue data. We develop a structural framework to infer quality-adjusted TFP from an estimated firm-level revenue function. We use microdata for two sectors previously identified as being significant contributors to the UK's productivity growth slowdown—manufacturing and ICT—from 2008 to 2019. The revenue function is estimated using the Blundell–Bond System GMM estimator. We also use an alternative cost-shares approach to identifying and measuring TFP. For both methods, we find an overall fall in TFP levels in manufacturing and a rise in ICT. We find a striking decline of between 13% and 18% in the level of within-firm manufacturing TFP, and of between 11% and 16% in ICT, although with reallocation effects differing between the two sectors. The finding of declining within-firm TFP is robust, although the magnitude varies between methods. We discuss a possible explanation for this extended UK productivity puzzle based on the relative underperformance of UK firms in international markets.

We critically examine the hypothesis that COVID-19 has ushered in a large reallocation shock in the USA, beyond typical business cycle patterns. We take a broad perspective, and first consider data from the CPS and JOLTS; there is no noticeable uptick in occupation or sector switches, either at the aggregate level or in the cross-section. The dispersion of sectoral growth rates over the three years before the pandemic was similar to the previous period. The recovery from the initial shock was characterized by very high quits and low layoffs, patterns indicative of a strong labour market, not excessively high reallocation relative to previous business cycles. High growth of small employers in the recovery, and larger ones once the labour market tightened, is also a common cyclical pattern. We then examine whether mismatch unemployment rose as a result of the pandemic; using an off-the-shelf multisector search and matching model, there is little evidence for an important role for mismatch in driving the unemployment rate during the pandemic. Finally, we employ a novel Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression framework with sign restrictions to identify a reallocation shock; we find that it has played a relatively minor role in explaining labour market patterns in the pandemic, at least relative to earlier episodes.

Exogenous reputational information is known to improve cooperation. This study experimentally investigates how people create such information by reporting their partner's action choices, and whether endogenous monitoring helps to sustain cooperation, in an indefinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game with random matching. The experimental results show that most subjects report their opponents' action choices, thereby successfully cooperating when reporting does not involve costs. However, when reporting is costly, participants are strongly discouraged from doing so. Consequently, they fail to achieve strong cooperative norms when the reported information is conveyed privately only to their next-round interaction partners. Costly reporting occurs only occasionally even when there is a public record whereby all future partners can check the reported information, but significantly more frequently relative to the condition in which it is sent to the next partner only. With public records, groups can foster cooperative norms aided by reported information that gradually accumulates and becomes more informative over time.

We study the regional economics of mineral resource activity in Africa. Using geocoded data on mine openings and closures in Africa, we document that mining regions experience local economic booms while a mine is in operation. We then explore how mineral resources affect non-mining regions. Non-mining regions might be affected by mining activity due to deliberate government policies (e.g. regional redistribution) or due to various inadvertent country-level macroeconomic adjustments (e.g. Dutch-Disease-type effects or declining institutional quality). Our results suggest that mineral resources have heterogeneous effects on non-mining regions. Politically important regions benefit economically, while generic non-mining regions are, in general, worse off. Exploring mechanisms, we find that these spatial patterns arguably emerge due to both deliberate government policies as well as Dutch-Disease-style macroeconomic adjustments that harm regions specializing in sectors other than mining.

Markets and firms offer contrasting methods to arrange production. In markets, contracts govern the purchase of parts and services. In firms, the shared values, customs and norms coming from a corporate culture govern employees' joint development of parts and services. We argue for this distinction as a theory of the firm. Firms exist because corporate culture at times is more efficient to carry out production than are detailed contracts. The firm's boundary encircles the areas of production for which a manager optimally chooses corporate culture as the organizing device. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model explains why some mergers and acquisitions fail, and why corporate cultures are hard to change.

Why do modern states allow parts of their territory to be governed by non-state actors? We study this question using the Frontier Crimes Regulation (FCR) in Pakistan, a British Colonial law abrogated only in 2018, which left governance to pre-colonial tribal councils in large parts of modern day Pakistan. In areas where the FCR did not apply, the British and then Pakistani state built modern political and bureaucratic institutions. Using primary legal documents, we build a dataset of when and where the FCR applied between 1901 and 2012. The territorial extent of the formal state is both cleanly demarcated by this law and varies substantially over time, permitting an empirical examination of the determinants of state control. The data reveal that the Green Revolution's potential to transform agriculture played a major role in extending the formal state. The law was repealed first from areas where agricultural productivity benefited the most from the Green Revolution. This is consistent with a model in which technological changes that shift the returns to control influence where states choose to govern.

We investigate the causal nexus between pandemic distress and anti-immigration sentiments. We exploit the disruption brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak to randomly provide survey respondents with information on the economic or health consequences of the pandemic. Overall, we find that pessimistic information about the economic outlook reinforces overall adversity to immigration and the wish to exclude immigrants from access to healthcare. This effect is less pronounced in areas with larger immigrant populations. Our theoretical model pins down two possible mechanisms explaining these results: a zero-sum game to split scarce public resources between residents and immigrants on the one hand, and on the other, fear of contagion.

We examine the spatial variation in variety of manufactured consumer goods to study how choice fades across space. We use data on 132 consumer goods and over 800 brands available from a purpose-designed survey of fixed shops and periodic market stalls in towns and villages in Ethiopia. We find that local consumer choice fades, with fewer varieties in remoter villages. On average, these villages have approximately half the number of available items compared to their nearest market town. A fall in travel time of a half-hour is associated with 4 extra goods and 9 brands. Variety also increases with inequality and market size. Furthermore, we estimate a model of heterogeneous consumers with a preference for variety and monopolistically competitive traders to disentangle the role of transport costs from the taste for variety, and to assess the consequences for prices. Our model estimates suggest that local consumer prices contain a markup of 8% above source town prices and transport costs. We demonstrate the significant costs to consumers from both low variety and high trade costs. Ignoring such costs means that poverty is underestimated in remote places. In turn, when infrastructure investments raise variety, the likely fall in poverty will be underestimated too.