首页 > 最新文献

Judgment and Decision Making最新文献

英文 中文
What drives opposition to suicide? Two exploratory studies of normative judgments 是什么驱使人们反对自杀?规范性判断的两个探索性研究
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500009062
J. Landy, Pritik A. Shah
The act of suicide is commonly viewed as wrong in some sense, but it is not clear why this is. Based on past empirical research and philosophical theorizing, we test ten different explanations for why suicide is opposed on normative grounds. Using a within-subjects design, Study 1 showed that seven out of ten manipulations had significant effects on normative judgments of suicide: time left to live, lack of close social relationships, a history of prior immoral behavior, the manner in which the suicide is committed, painful, incurable medical issues, impulsive decision-making, and the actor’s own moral-religious background. However, in all cases, the act of suicide was still considered wrong, overall. Using a between-subjects design, Study 2 tested the combined effect of the seven significant manipulations from Study 1. In combination, the seven manipulations eliminated opposition to suicide, on average. Implications for moral psychology and suicide prevention are discussed.
自杀行为在某种意义上通常被认为是错误的,但原因尚不清楚。基于过去的实证研究和哲学理论,我们测试了十种不同的解释,解释为什么自杀在规范的基础上被反对。通过受试者内部设计,研究1表明,十分之七的操作对自杀的规范性判断有显著影响:剩余的生存时间、缺乏亲密的社会关系、既往不道德行为史、自杀方式、痛苦的、无法治愈的医疗问题、冲动的决策以及演员自己的道德宗教背景。然而,在所有情况下,自杀行为总体上仍然被认为是错误的。研究2采用受试者之间的设计,测试了研究1中七种重要操作的综合效果。综合起来,这七种操作平均消除了对自杀的反对。讨论了对道德心理学和自杀预防的启示。
{"title":"What drives opposition to suicide? Two exploratory studies of normative\u0000 judgments","authors":"J. Landy, Pritik A. Shah","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500009062","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500009062","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The act of suicide is commonly viewed as wrong in some sense, but it is\u0000 not clear why this is. Based on past empirical research and philosophical\u0000 theorizing, we test ten different explanations for why suicide is opposed on\u0000 normative grounds. Using a within-subjects design, Study 1 showed that seven\u0000 out of ten manipulations had significant effects on normative judgments of\u0000 suicide: time left to live, lack of close social relationships, a history of\u0000 prior immoral behavior, the manner in which the suicide is committed,\u0000 painful, incurable medical issues, impulsive decision-making, and the\u0000 actor’s own moral-religious background. However, in all cases, the act of\u0000 suicide was still considered wrong, overall. Using a between-subjects\u0000 design, Study 2 tested the combined effect of the seven significant\u0000 manipulations from Study 1. In combination, the seven manipulations\u0000 eliminated opposition to suicide, on average. Implications for moral\u0000 psychology and suicide prevention are discussed.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47003332","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Agency and self-other asymmetries in perceived bias and shortcomings: Replications of the Bias Blind Spot and link to free will beliefs 感知偏见和缺点中的代理和自我-他人不对称:偏见盲点的复制及其与自由意志信念的联系
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008470
S. Chandrashekar, S. Yeung, Ka Chai Yau, Chung Yee Cheung, Tanay Agarwal, Cho Yan Joan Wong, Tanishka Pillai, Thea Natasha Thirlwell, Wing Nam Leung, Colman Tse, Yan Tung Li, Boley Cheng, Hill Yan Cedar Chan, Gilad Feldman
Bias Blind Spot (BBS) is the phenomenon that people tend to perceive themselves as less susceptible to biases than others. In three pre-registered experiments (overall N = 969), we replicated two experiments of the first demonstration of the phenomenon by Pronin et al. (2002). We found support of the BBS hypotheses, with effects in line with findings in the original study: Participants rated themselves as less susceptible to biases than others (d = –1.00 [–1.33, –0.67]). Deviating from the original, we found an unexpected effect that participants rated themselves as having fewer shortcomings (d = –0.34 [–0.46, –0.23]), though there was support for the target’s main premise that BBS was stronger for biases than for shortcomings (d = –0.43 [–0.56, –0.29]). Extending the replications, we found that beliefs in own free will were positively associated with BBS (r ∼ 0.17–0.22) and that beliefs in both own and general free will were positively associated with self-other asymmetry related to personal shortcomings (r ∼ 0.16–0.24). Materials, datasets, and code are available on https://osf.io/3df5s/.
偏见盲点(BBS)是一种人们倾向于认为自己比别人更不容易受到偏见影响的现象。在三个预注册实验(总N = 969)中,我们重复了Pronin等人(2002)首次证明该现象的两个实验。我们发现了BBS假设的支持,其效果与原始研究的结果一致:参与者认为自己比其他人更不容易受到偏见的影响(d = -1.00[-1.33, -0.67])。与最初的结果不同,我们发现了一个意想不到的结果,即参与者认为自己的缺点较少(d = -0.34[-0.46, -0.23]),尽管有证据支持目标的主要前提,即BBS对偏见的影响大于对缺点的影响(d = -0.43[-0.56, -0.29])。扩大重复,我们发现对自己自由意志的信念与BBS呈正相关(r ~ 0.17-0.22),对自己和一般自由意志的信念与与个人缺点相关的自我-他人不对称呈正相关(r ~ 0.16-0.24)。材料、数据集和代码可在https://osf.io/3df5s/上获得。
{"title":"Agency and self-other asymmetries in perceived bias and shortcomings: Replications of the Bias Blind Spot and link to free will beliefs","authors":"S. Chandrashekar, S. Yeung, Ka Chai Yau, Chung Yee Cheung, Tanay Agarwal, Cho Yan Joan Wong, Tanishka Pillai, Thea Natasha Thirlwell, Wing Nam Leung, Colman Tse, Yan Tung Li, Boley Cheng, Hill Yan Cedar Chan, Gilad Feldman","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008470","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008470","url":null,"abstract":"Bias Blind Spot (BBS) is the phenomenon that people tend to perceive themselves as less susceptible to biases than others. In three pre-registered experiments (overall N = 969), we replicated two experiments of the first demonstration of the phenomenon by Pronin et al. (2002). We found support of the BBS hypotheses, with effects in line with findings in the original study: Participants rated themselves as less susceptible to biases than others (d = –1.00 [–1.33, –0.67]). Deviating from the original, we found an unexpected effect that participants rated themselves as having fewer shortcomings (d = –0.34 [–0.46, –0.23]), though there was support for the target’s main premise that BBS was stronger for biases than for shortcomings (d = –0.43 [–0.56, –0.29]). Extending the replications, we found that beliefs in own free will were positively associated with BBS (r ∼ 0.17–0.22) and that beliefs in both own and general free will were positively associated with self-other asymmetry related to personal shortcomings (r ∼ 0.16–0.24). Materials, datasets, and code are available on https://osf.io/3df5s/.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"57323282","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Incentivized and non-incentivized liking ratings outperform willingness-to-pay in predicting choice 在预测选择方面,受激励和非受激励的好感度高于支付意愿
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008500
Joshua Hascher, N. Desai, I. Krajbich
A core principle in decision science is that people choose according to their subjective values. These values are often measured using unincentivized scales with arbitrary units (e.g., from 0 to 10) or using incentivized willingness-to-pay (WTP) with dollars and cents. What is unclear is whether using WTP actually improves choice predictions. In two experiments, we compare the effects of three different subjective valuation procedures: an unincentivized rating scale, the same scale with incentives, and incentivized WTP. We use these subjective values to predict behavior in a subsequent binary food-choice task. The unincentivized rating task performed better than the incentivized WTP task and no worse than the incentivized rating task. These findings challenge the view that subjective valuation tasks need to be incentivized. At least for low-stakes decisions, commonly used measures such as WTP may reduce predictive power.
决策科学的一个核心原则是人们根据自己的主观价值进行选择。这些价值通常使用带有任意单位的非激励尺度(例如,从0到10)或使用带有美元和美分的激励支付意愿(WTP)来衡量。目前尚不清楚的是,使用WTP是否真的能改善选择预测。在两个实验中,我们比较了三种不同的主观评价程序的效果:无激励量表、有激励的相同量表和有激励的WTP。我们使用这些主观值来预测在随后的二元食物选择任务中的行为。无激励评定任务的表现好于有激励的WTP任务,并不比有激励的评定任务差。这些发现挑战了主观评估任务需要激励的观点。至少对于低风险的决策,WTP等常用的度量可能会降低预测能力。
{"title":"Incentivized and non-incentivized liking ratings outperform willingness-to-pay in predicting choice","authors":"Joshua Hascher, N. Desai, I. Krajbich","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008500","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008500","url":null,"abstract":"A core principle in decision science is that people choose according to their subjective values. These values are often measured using unincentivized scales with arbitrary units (e.g., from 0 to 10) or using incentivized willingness-to-pay (WTP) with dollars and cents. What is unclear is whether using WTP actually improves choice predictions. In two experiments, we compare the effects of three different subjective valuation procedures: an unincentivized rating scale, the same scale with incentives, and incentivized WTP. We use these subjective values to predict behavior in a subsequent binary food-choice task. The unincentivized rating task performed better than the incentivized WTP task and no worse than the incentivized rating task. These findings challenge the view that subjective valuation tasks need to be incentivized. At least for low-stakes decisions, commonly used measures such as WTP may reduce predictive power.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42796339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Establishing the laws of preferential choice behavior 建立优惠选择行为法律
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008457
Sudeep Bhatia, G. Loomes, D. Read
Mathematical and computational decision models are powerful tools for studying choice behavior, and hundreds of distinct decision models have been proposed over the long interdisciplinary history of decision making research. The existence of so many models has led to theoretical fragmentation and redundancy, obscuring key insights into choice behavior, and preventing consensus about the essential properties of preferential choice. We provide a synthesis of formal models of risky, multiattribute, and intertemporal choice, three important domains in decision making. We identify recurring insights discovered by scholars of different generations and different disciplines across these three domains, and use these insights to classify over 150 existing models as involving various combinations of eight key mathematical and computational properties. These properties capture the main avenues of theoretical development in decision making research and can be used to understand the similarities and differences between decision models, aiding both theoretical analyses and empirical tests.
数学和计算决策模型是研究选择行为的强大工具,在漫长的跨学科决策研究历史中,已经提出了数百种不同的决策模型。如此多的模型的存在导致了理论的碎片化和冗余,模糊了对选择行为的关键见解,并阻碍了对优先选择的基本性质达成共识。我们提供了风险、多属性和跨期选择的形式模型的综合,这是决策中的三个重要领域。我们确定了不同世代和不同学科的学者在这三个领域中发现的反复出现的见解,并利用这些见解将150多个现有模型分类为涉及八个关键数学和计算特性的各种组合。这些特性反映了决策研究中理论发展的主要途径,可用于理解决策模型之间的异同,有助于理论分析和实证检验。
{"title":"Establishing the laws of preferential choice behavior","authors":"Sudeep Bhatia, G. Loomes, D. Read","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008457","url":null,"abstract":"Mathematical and computational decision models are powerful tools for studying choice behavior, and hundreds of distinct decision models have been proposed over the long interdisciplinary history of decision making research. The existence of so many models has led to theoretical fragmentation and redundancy, obscuring key insights into choice behavior, and preventing consensus about the essential properties of preferential choice. We provide a synthesis of formal models of risky, multiattribute, and intertemporal choice, three important domains in decision making. We identify recurring insights discovered by scholars of different generations and different disciplines across these three domains, and use these insights to classify over 150 existing models as involving various combinations of eight key mathematical and computational properties. These properties capture the main avenues of theoretical development in decision making research and can be used to understand the similarities and differences between decision models, aiding both theoretical analyses and empirical tests.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46654362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Differences in cooperation between social dilemmas of gain and loss 社会得失困境中的合作差异
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008524
Qingzhou Sun, Haozhi Guo, Jiarui Wang, Jing Zhang, Chengming Jiang, Yongfang Liu
In social interactions, people frequently encounter gain (i.e., all outcomes are gains from the status-quo) or loss (all outcomes are losses from the status-quo) social dilemmas, where their personal interests conflict with social interests. We ask whether there are any behavioral differences in social interactions when it comes to gains and losses. Using the Prisoner’s Dilemma games, in three studies we observed that participants were less cooperative in the loss domain than in the gain domain. This effect was robust, not moderated by payoff amount (Study 1), cooperation index (Study 1), domain comparison (Studies 1 and 2), and personal loss aversion (Study 3). Social motive and belief explained this effect: compared to the gain domain, participants in the loss domain aroused more pro-self motive and less prosocial motive, and showed stronger beliefs that their partner would defect, which led them to cooperate less. These findings suggest that gain and loss domains affect individual motivation and belief, subsequently affecting strategic choices in social dilemmas.
在社会交往中,人们经常遇到获得(即所有结果都是从现状中获得的)或损失(所有结果都从现状中损失)的社会困境,他们的个人利益与社会利益发生冲突。当涉及到得失时,我们会问在社交互动中是否存在任何行为差异。使用囚徒困境游戏,在三项研究中,我们观察到参与者在损失领域的合作程度低于在收益领域的合作。这种影响是稳健的,不受回报量(研究1)、合作指数(研究1、领域比较(研究1和2)和个人损失厌恶(研究3)的调节。社会动机和信念解释了这种效应:与获得域相比,损失域的参与者激发了更多的亲自我动机和更少的亲社会动机,并表现出更强的信念,认为他们的伴侣会叛变,这导致他们合作更少。这些发现表明,得失域会影响个人的动机和信念,进而影响社会困境中的战略选择。
{"title":"Differences in cooperation between social dilemmas of gain and loss","authors":"Qingzhou Sun, Haozhi Guo, Jiarui Wang, Jing Zhang, Chengming Jiang, Yongfang Liu","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008524","url":null,"abstract":"In social interactions, people frequently encounter gain (i.e., all outcomes are gains from the status-quo) or loss (all outcomes are losses from the status-quo) social dilemmas, where their personal interests conflict with social interests. We ask whether there are any behavioral differences in social interactions when it comes to gains and losses. Using the Prisoner’s Dilemma games, in three studies we observed that participants were less cooperative in the loss domain than in the gain domain. This effect was robust, not moderated by payoff amount (Study 1), cooperation index (Study 1), domain comparison (Studies 1 and 2), and personal loss aversion (Study 3). Social motive and belief explained this effect: compared to the gain domain, participants in the loss domain aroused more pro-self motive and less prosocial motive, and showed stronger beliefs that their partner would defect, which led them to cooperate less. These findings suggest that gain and loss domains affect individual motivation and belief, subsequently affecting strategic choices in social dilemmas.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45694786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
COVID-19 as infodemic: The impact of political orientation and open-mindedness on the discernment of misinformation in WhatsApp COVID-19作为信息大流行:政治取向和开放思想对WhatsApp中错误信息识别的影响
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s193029750000855x
Andressa Couto Cleno Kakinohana Regis Travain Mariana Schim Bonafé-Pontes, Cleno Couto, Regis K. Kakinohana, M. Travain, Luísa Schimidt, Ronaldo Pilati
Messaging applications are changing the communication landscape in emerging countries. While offering speed and affordability, these solutions have also opened the way for the spread of misinformation. Aiming to better understand the dynamics of COVID-19 as infodemic, we asked Brazilian participants (n=1007) to report the perceived accuracy of 20 messages (10 true and 10 false). Each message was randomly presented within five fictitious WhatsApp group chats of varying political orientation. Correlational analyses revealed that right-wing participants had lower levels of truth discernment as did those with greater trust in social media as a reliable source of coronavirus information. Conversely, open-minded thinking about evidence and trust in the WHO and traditional media was positively associated with truth discernment. Familiarity with the content consistently increased perceived truthness for both true and false messages. Results point to the nefarious effects of COVID-19 politicization and underline the importance of promoting the ability to recognize and value new evidence as well as enhancing trust in international agencies and traditional media.
消息应用程序正在改变新兴国家的通信格局。这些解决方案在提供速度和可负担性的同时,也为错误信息的传播开辟了道路。为了更好地了解新冠肺炎作为信息传播的动态,我们要求巴西参与者(n=1007)报告20条信息的感知准确性(10条为真,10条为假)。每条消息都是在五个虚构的WhatsApp群聊中随机呈现的,这些群聊的政治取向各不相同。相关分析显示,右翼参与者的真相辨别能力较低,而那些更信任社交媒体作为冠状病毒信息的可靠来源的参与者也是如此。相反,对世界卫生组织和传统媒体的证据和信任持开放态度与辨别真相有积极联系。对内容的熟悉不断增加真实和虚假信息的真实感。结果指出了新冠肺炎政治化的邪恶影响,并强调了提高认识和重视新证据的能力以及增强对国际机构和传统媒体的信任的重要性。
{"title":"COVID-19 as infodemic: The impact of political orientation and open-mindedness on the discernment of misinformation in WhatsApp","authors":"Andressa Couto Cleno Kakinohana Regis Travain Mariana Schim Bonafé-Pontes, Cleno Couto, Regis K. Kakinohana, M. Travain, Luísa Schimidt, Ronaldo Pilati","doi":"10.1017/s193029750000855x","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s193029750000855x","url":null,"abstract":"Messaging applications are changing the communication landscape in emerging countries. While offering speed and affordability, these solutions have also opened the way for the spread of misinformation. Aiming to better understand the dynamics of COVID-19 as infodemic, we asked Brazilian participants (n=1007) to report the perceived accuracy of 20 messages (10 true and 10 false). Each message was randomly presented within five fictitious WhatsApp group chats of varying political orientation. Correlational analyses revealed that right-wing participants had lower levels of truth discernment as did those with greater trust in social media as a reliable source of coronavirus information. Conversely, open-minded thinking about evidence and trust in the WHO and traditional media was positively associated with truth discernment. Familiarity with the content consistently increased perceived truthness for both true and false messages. Results point to the nefarious effects of COVID-19 politicization and underline the importance of promoting the ability to recognize and value new evidence as well as enhancing trust in international agencies and traditional media.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47565604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Development of decision making based on internal and external information: A hierarchical Bayesian approach 基于内部和外部信息的决策发展:一种分层贝叶斯方法
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008482
J. Zadelaar, J. A. V. Rentergem, Jessica V. Schaaf, T. Dekkers, N. D. Vent, L. Dekkers, Maria C. Olthof, Brenda R. J. Jansen, H. Huizenga
In decision making, people may rely on their own information as well as on information from external sources, such as family members, peers, or experts. The current study investigated how these types of information are used by comparing four decision strategies: 1) an internal strategy that relies solely on own information; 2) an external strategy that relies solely on the information from an external source; 3) a sequential strategy that relies on information from an external source only after own information is deemed inadequate; 4) an integrative strategy that relies on an integration of both types of information. Of specific interest were individual and developmental differences in strategy use. Strategy use was examined via Bayesian hierarchical mixture model analysis. A visual decision task was administered to children and young adolescents (N=305, ages 9–14). Individual differences but no age-related changes were observed in either decision accuracy or strategy use. The internal strategy was dominant across ages, followed by the integrative and sequential strategy, respectively, while the external strategy was extremely rare. This suggests a reluctance to rely entirely on information provided by external sources. We conclude that there are individual differences but not developmental changes in strategy use pertaining to perceptual decision-making in 9- through 14-year-olds. Generalizability of these findings is discussed with regard to different forms of social influence and varying perceptions of the external source. This study provides stepping stones in better understanding and modeling decision making processes in the presence of both internal and external information.
在决策过程中,人们可能依赖自己的信息以及来自外部来源的信息,如家庭成员、同龄人或专家。目前的研究通过比较四种决策策略来调查如何使用这些类型的信息:1)完全依赖于自己信息的内部策略;2) 完全依赖于来自外部来源的信息的外部战略;3) 只有在自己的信息被认为不充分之后,才依赖于来自外部来源的信息的顺序策略;4) 一种综合战略,它依赖于两种类型的信息的整合。特别感兴趣的是策略使用方面的个体差异和发展差异。通过贝叶斯分层混合模型分析来检验策略的使用。对儿童和青少年(N=305,9-14岁)进行视觉决策任务。在决策准确性或策略使用方面,观察到个体差异,但没有发现与年龄相关的变化。内部策略在各个年龄段都占主导地位,其次分别是综合策略和顺序策略,而外部策略极为罕见。这表明人们不愿完全依赖外部来源提供的信息。我们得出的结论是,在9至14岁的儿童中,与感知决策相关的策略使用存在个体差异,但没有发展变化。关于不同形式的社会影响和对外部来源的不同看法,讨论了这些发现的可推广性。这项研究为在存在内部和外部信息的情况下更好地理解和建模决策过程提供了垫脚石。
{"title":"Development of decision making based on internal and external information: A hierarchical Bayesian approach","authors":"J. Zadelaar, J. A. V. Rentergem, Jessica V. Schaaf, T. Dekkers, N. D. Vent, L. Dekkers, Maria C. Olthof, Brenda R. J. Jansen, H. Huizenga","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008482","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008482","url":null,"abstract":"In decision making, people may rely on their own information as well as on information from external sources, such as family members, peers, or experts. The current study investigated how these types of information are used by comparing four decision strategies: 1) an internal strategy that relies solely on own information; 2) an external strategy that relies solely on the information from an external source; 3) a sequential strategy that relies on information from an external source only after own information is deemed inadequate; 4) an integrative strategy that relies on an integration of both types of information. Of specific interest were individual and developmental differences in strategy use. Strategy use was examined via Bayesian hierarchical mixture model analysis. A visual decision task was administered to children and young adolescents (N=305, ages 9–14). Individual differences but no age-related changes were observed in either decision accuracy or strategy use. The internal strategy was dominant across ages, followed by the integrative and sequential strategy, respectively, while the external strategy was extremely rare. This suggests a reluctance to rely entirely on information provided by external sources. We conclude that there are individual differences but not developmental changes in strategy use pertaining to perceptual decision-making in 9- through 14-year-olds. Generalizability of these findings is discussed with regard to different forms of social influence and varying perceptions of the external source. This study provides stepping stones in better understanding and modeling decision making processes in the presence of both internal and external information.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47159817","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games 预测NFL比赛时专家和新手对环境规律的敏感性
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008469
Lauren E. Montgomery, M. Lee
We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the home team winning more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning more often, the team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, and two others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams’ previous game. Using signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we show that expert predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season generally follow these regularities in a near optimal way, but novice predictions do not. These results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of expertise.
我们研究了专家和新手对国家橄榄球联盟比赛的预测方式是否不同。特别是,我们衡量他们的预测在多大程度上符合五种环境规律,这些规律可以支持基于启发式的决策。这些规律包括主队获胜的次数更多,输赢记录较好的球队获胜的次数更频繁,大多数媒体专家青睐的球队获胜次数更多,还有两个与球队上一场比赛的意外输赢有关。使用信号检测理论和分层贝叶斯分析,我们表明,专家对2017年美国国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)赛季的预测通常以接近最优的方式遵循这些规律,但新手预测则不然。这些结果支持这样一种观点,即使用适应决策环境的启发式方法可以支持准确的预测,并成为专业知识的指标。
{"title":"Expert and novice sensitivity to environmental regularities in predicting NFL games","authors":"Lauren E. Montgomery, M. Lee","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008469","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008469","url":null,"abstract":"We study whether experts and novices differ in the way they make predictions about National Football League games. In particular, we measure to what extent their predictions are consistent with five environmental regularities that could support decision making based on heuristics. These regularities involve the home team winning more often, the team with the better win-loss record winning more often, the team favored by the majority of media experts winning more often, and two others related to surprise wins and losses in the teams’ previous game. Using signal detection theory and hierarchical Bayesian analysis, we show that expert predictions for the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season generally follow these regularities in a near optimal way, but novice predictions do not. These results support the idea that using heuristics adapted to the decision environment can support accurate predictions and be an indicator of expertise.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41401715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Success stories cause false beliefs about success 成功的故事导致了对成功的错误信念
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008494
George Lifchits, Ashton Anderson, D. Goldstein, J. Hofman, D. Watts
Many popular books and articles that purport to explain how people, companies, or ideas succeed highlight a few successes chosen to fit a particular narrative. We investigate what effect these highly selected “success narratives” have on readers’ beliefs and decisions. We conducted a large, randomized, pre-registered experiment, showing participants successful firms with founders that all either dropped out of or graduated college, and asked them to make incentive-compatible bets on a new firm. Despite acknowledging biases in the examples, participants’ decisions were very strongly influenced by them. People shown dropout founders were 55 percentage points more likely to bet on a dropout-founded company than people who were shown graduate founders. Most reported medium to high confidence in their bets, and many wrote causal explanations justifying their decision. In light of recent concerns about false information, our findings demonstrate how true but biased information can strongly alter beliefs and decisions.
许多流行的书籍和文章旨在解释人们、公司或想法是如何成功的,它们强调了一些适合特定叙事的成功。我们调查了这些高度选择的“成功叙事”对读者的信念和决定有什么影响。我们进行了一项大规模的、随机的、预先注册的实验,向参与者展示了成功的公司,这些公司的创始人要么都从大学辍学,要么都毕业了,并要求他们对一家新公司进行激励相容的押注。尽管承认例子中存在偏见,但参与者的决定受到了这些偏见的强烈影响。向辍学者展示的创始人比向毕业生展示的创始人展示的人更有可能将赌注押在辍学创办的公司上55个百分点。大多数人报告说,他们对自己的赌注有中到高的信心,许多人写了因果解释来证明他们的决定。鉴于最近对虚假信息的担忧,我们的研究结果表明,真实但有偏见的信息会强烈改变信念和决策。
{"title":"Success stories cause false beliefs about success","authors":"George Lifchits, Ashton Anderson, D. Goldstein, J. Hofman, D. Watts","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008494","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008494","url":null,"abstract":"Many popular books and articles that purport to explain how people, companies, or ideas succeed highlight a few successes chosen to fit a particular narrative. We investigate what effect these highly selected “success narratives” have on readers’ beliefs and decisions. We conducted a large, randomized, pre-registered experiment, showing participants successful firms with founders that all either dropped out of or graduated college, and asked them to make incentive-compatible bets on a new firm. Despite acknowledging biases in the examples, participants’ decisions were very strongly influenced by them. People shown dropout founders were 55 percentage points more likely to bet on a dropout-founded company than people who were shown graduate founders. Most reported medium to high confidence in their bets, and many wrote causal explanations justifying their decision. In light of recent concerns about false information, our findings demonstrate how true but biased information can strongly alter beliefs and decisions.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43362409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Revenge is not blind: Testing the ability of retribution to justify dishonesty 复仇不是盲目的:测试报复的能力来为不诚实辩护
IF 2.5 3区 心理学 Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1017/s1930297500008536
D. Peleg, Guy Hochman, T. Levine, Y. Klar, S. Ayal
In two studies, we tested the power of revenge as a justification mechanism that enables people to cheat with a clear conscience. Specifically, we explored the effects of prior dishonesty and unfairness towards participants on their subsequent moral behavior, as well as the physiological arousal associated with it. To this end, we employed a two-phase procedure. In the first phase, participants played one round of a bargaining game (the Ultimatum game in Study 1 and the Dictator game in Study 2) in which we manipulated whether the players had been treated (un)fairly and (dis)honestly by their opponent. In the second phase, they did a perceptual task that allowed them to cheat for monetary gain at the expense of their opponent from the first phase. In Study 1, participants also took a lie detector test to assess whether their dishonesty in the second phase could be detected. The behavioral results in both studies indicated that the opponent’s dishonesty was a stronger driver than the opponent’s unfairness for cheating as a form of retaliation. However, the physiological arousal results suggest that feeling mistreated in general (and not just cheated) allowed the participants to get revenge by cheating the offender while dismissing their associated guilt feelings.
在两项研究中,我们测试了报复作为一种辩护机制的力量,这种机制使人们能够问心无愧地作弊。具体来说,我们探讨了先前对参与者的不诚实和不公平对他们随后的道德行为的影响,以及与之相关的生理唤醒。为此,我们采用了两阶段的程序。在第一阶段,参与者玩一轮讨价还价游戏(研究1中的最后通牒游戏和研究2中的独裁者游戏),我们操纵参与者是否被对手(不公平)和(不诚实)对待。在第二阶段,他们做了一个感知任务,允许他们以牺牲第一阶段对手的利益为代价,通过欺骗来获得金钱。在研究1中,参与者还进行了测谎仪测试,以评估他们在第二阶段的不诚实是否可以被检测到。两项研究的行为结果都表明,作为一种报复形式,对手的不诚实比对手的不公平更能驱动作弊。然而,生理唤醒的结果表明,一般来说,感觉受到虐待(而不仅仅是被欺骗)会让参与者通过欺骗冒犯者来报复,同时消除他们相关的内疚感。
{"title":"Revenge is not blind: Testing the ability of retribution to justify dishonesty","authors":"D. Peleg, Guy Hochman, T. Levine, Y. Klar, S. Ayal","doi":"10.1017/s1930297500008536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500008536","url":null,"abstract":"In two studies, we tested the power of revenge as a justification mechanism that enables people to cheat with a clear conscience. Specifically, we explored the effects of prior dishonesty and unfairness towards participants on their subsequent moral behavior, as well as the physiological arousal associated with it. To this end, we employed a two-phase procedure. In the first phase, participants played one round of a bargaining game (the Ultimatum game in Study 1 and the Dictator game in Study 2) in which we manipulated whether the players had been treated (un)fairly and (dis)honestly by their opponent. In the second phase, they did a perceptual task that allowed them to cheat for monetary gain at the expense of their opponent from the first phase. In Study 1, participants also took a lie detector test to assess whether their dishonesty in the second phase could be detected. The behavioral results in both studies indicated that the opponent’s dishonesty was a stronger driver than the opponent’s unfairness for cheating as a form of retaliation. However, the physiological arousal results suggest that feeling mistreated in general (and not just cheated) allowed the participants to get revenge by cheating the offender while dismissing their associated guilt feelings.","PeriodicalId":48045,"journal":{"name":"Judgment and Decision Making","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41886863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Judgment and Decision Making
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1