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Does size matter? Evidence from municipal splits 规模重要吗?市政分裂的证据
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-13 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12679
Gissur Ó. Erlingsson, Jonas Klarin, Eva Mörk
We contribute to the limited knowledge of the consequences of municipal splits by estimating how break‐ups of seven Swedish municipalities affected per capita expenditures. To predict what would have happened had the break‐ups not taken place, we apply the matrix completion method with nuclear norm minimization. We find that smaller municipalities not necessarily imply higher per capita expenditures. Instead, expenditures increase in some cases, are unaffected in others, and in others, decrease. The results point to the complex nature of territorial reforms and underscore the perils of policy recommendations that take uniform outcomes of either amalgamations or break‐ups for granted.
我们通过估算瑞典七个市镇的分治对人均支出的影响,为人们对市镇分治后果的有限了解做出了贡献。为了预测如果没有发生市镇拆分会发生什么情况,我们采用了核规范最小化矩阵完成法。我们发现,较小的市镇并不一定意味着较高的人均支出。相反,在某些情况下,支出会增加,在另一些情况下,支出不受影响,而在另一些情况下,支出则会减少。这些结果表明了领土改革的复杂性,并强调了将合并或解体的统一结果视为理所当然的政策建议的危险性。
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引用次数: 0
Promoting sustainable and high-quality economic development in China via regional innovation poles 通过区域创新极推动中国经济可持续和高质量发展
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12687
Yu Zheng, Alan Collins, Shujie Yao

Using a panel data set comprising 284 prefecture-level and above cities in China during 2005–2018, this study develops a theoretical mechanism harnessing the spatial Durbin model (SDM) to accumulate evidence and explain how innovation affects China's economic growth. It is found that regional economic growth is facilitated by local innovation activities as well as the absorption capacity of innovation and technology spilled over from other regions. This study also identifies 12 regional innovation poles across the country, which are found to have played a significant role in promoting urban economic development within a physical distance range of 150 km of a given region. This finding attests to the radiation effect from regional innovation poles in cultivating more such poles for China, to promote sustainable high-quality economic growth, suggesting a route for China to avoid the curse of the middle-income trap.

本研究利用 2005-2018 年期间中国 284 个地级及以上城市的面板数据集,建立了一个利用空间杜宾模型(SDM)的理论机制,以积累证据并解释创新如何影响中国的经济增长。研究发现,本地创新活动以及对其他地区外溢创新和技术的吸收能力促进了区域经济增长。本研究还在全国范围内确定了 12 个区域创新极,发现这些创新极对特定区域 150 公里物理距离范围内的城市经济发展起到了重要的促进作用。这一发现证明了区域创新极对中国培育更多区域创新极、促进经济可持续高质量增长的辐射作用,为中国避免中等收入陷阱的诅咒提供了一条路径。
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引用次数: 0
Promoting sustainable and high‐quality economic development in China via regional innovation poles 通过区域创新极推动中国经济可持续和高质量发展
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12687
Yu Zheng, Alan Collins, Shujie Yao
Using a panel data set comprising 284 prefecture‐level and above cities in China during 2005–2018, this study develops a theoretical mechanism harnessing the spatial Durbin model (SDM) to accumulate evidence and explain how innovation affects China's economic growth. It is found that regional economic growth is facilitated by local innovation activities as well as the absorption capacity of innovation and technology spilled over from other regions. This study also identifies 12 regional innovation poles across the country, which are found to have played a significant role in promoting urban economic development within a physical distance range of 150 km of a given region. This finding attests to the radiation effect from regional innovation poles in cultivating more such poles for China, to promote sustainable high‐quality economic growth, suggesting a route for China to avoid the curse of the middle‐income trap.
本研究利用 2005-2018 年期间中国 284 个地级及以上城市的面板数据集,建立了一个利用空间杜宾模型(SDM)的理论机制,以积累证据并解释创新如何影响中国的经济增长。研究发现,本地创新活动以及对其他地区外溢创新和技术的吸收能力促进了区域经济增长。本研究还在全国范围内确定了 12 个区域创新极,发现这些创新极对特定区域 150 公里物理距离范围内的城市经济发展起到了重要的促进作用。这一发现证明了区域创新极对中国培育更多区域创新极、促进经济可持续高质量增长的辐射作用,为中国避免中等收入陷阱的诅咒提供了一条路径。
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引用次数: 0
Racing to Zipf's law: Race and metropolitan population size 1910–2020 与齐普夫定律赛跑:1910-2020 年种族与大都市人口规模
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12686
Ricardo T. Fernholz, Rory Kramer

Scholarship demonstrates that urban systems follow a power law population distribution if the population has full labor mobility. Theoretically, subpopulations should also follow a power law population distribution if that subpopulation also has full labor mobility. Examining city population distributions for White and Black Americans across US metropolitan areas from 1910 to 2020 shows that the White distribution mostly conforms to both Zipf's and Gibrat's laws throughout this period. In contrast, the Black population does not follow either law until the second half of the 20th century, a result that is consistent with theories of restricted mobility out of the South for Black Americans during the Jim Crow era.

学术研究表明,如果人口具有充分的劳动力流动性,城市系统就会遵循幂律人口分布。从理论上讲,如果亚人口也具有充分的劳动力流动性,那么该亚人口也应遵循幂律人口分布。通过研究 1910 年至 2020 年美国大都市地区白人和黑人的城市人口分布,可以发现在整个期间,白人的人口分布大多符合齐普夫定律和吉布拉特定律。相比之下,黑人人口直到 20 世纪下半叶才符合这两个定律,这一结果与吉姆-克罗时代美国黑人离开南方的流动性受限的理论是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of short-term rentals on local consumption amenities: Evidence from Madrid 短期租赁对当地消费设施的影响:马德里的证据
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12685
Alberto Hidalgo, Massimo Riccaboni, Francisco J. Velázquez

This paper examines the impact of the arrival of Airbnb on local consumption amenities in Madrid. We exploit the exogenous variation created by the timing and uneven distribution of Airbnb listings in the city to determine the impact on food and beverage establishments. Using an instrumental variable strategy, we find positive local effects on both the number of restaurants and their employees: an increase of 14 Airbnb rooms in a given census tract leads to almost one more restaurant, and the same increase in a given neighborhood generates 11 new tourist-related employees. The results are robust to the specification and sample composition. This paper contributes to the literature on the economic impact of the platform economy on urban areas by providing evidence of market expansion externalities from short-term rentals.

本文探讨了 Airbnb 的到来对马德里当地消费设施的影响。我们利用 Airbnb 上市的时间和在城市中的不均匀分布所造成的外生变化来确定其对餐饮场所的影响。利用工具变量策略,我们发现了对餐馆数量及其员工的正向地方影响:在特定人口普查区,Airbnb 房间每增加 14 间,餐馆数量就会增加近 1 间;在特定街区,同样的增加量会产生 11 名新的旅游相关员工。这些结果对规格和样本组成都是稳健的。本文通过提供短租带来的市场扩张外部性证据,为有关平台经济对城市地区经济影响的文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
From agglomeration to dispersion: How does China's noncapital functions' relief affect regional development? 从集聚到分散:中国非首都功能疏解如何影响区域发展?
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-23 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12684
Bo Yuan, Kecen Jing, Yuhai Liu

Agglomeration economies can bring about positive externalities, while excessive agglomeration backfires. However, existing literature on place-based policies mainly focuses on policies that enhance agglomeration economies. Few studies discuss dispersion policies coping with the negative externality from excessive agglomeration. Owing to the unclear effects of dispersion policies, we conduct empirical research on the noncapital function relief (NCFR) policy, which is implemented to decrease the agglomeration in Beijing, the capital of China, and promote the development of surrounding areas. Exploiting the difference-in-difference model, we find that the NCFR policy implementation significantly facilitates the economic growth of the surrounding areas of Beijing. Changes in the distribution of new firm entry and population are two main channels, while no significant effect on the productivity is found. Furthermore, areas that are less-developed could benefit more from the NCFR policy. Our findings may enlighten other developing countries in urban economic management.

集聚经济可以带来积极的外部效应,而过度集聚则会适得其反。然而,关于地方政策的现有文献主要集中于提高集聚经济的政策。很少有研究讨论应对过度集聚带来的负外部性的分散政策。由于分散政策的效果不明确,我们对非首都功能疏解(NCFR)政策进行了实证研究,该政策旨在降低中国首都北京的集聚程度,促进周边地区的发展。利用差分模型,我们发现非首都功能疏解政策的实施极大地促进了北京周边地区的经济增长。新企业进入和人口分布的变化是两个主要渠道,而对生产率的影响并不明显。此外,欠发达地区可以从国家外商投资企业政策中获益更多。我们的研究结果可能会对其他发展中国家的城市经济管理有所启发。
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引用次数: 0
Does inequality migrate? The development of income inequality across German states 不平等会迁移吗?德国各州收入不平等的发展
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-21 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12683
Oleg Badunenko, Maria Popova

This study analyzes the evolution of educational and occupational patterns among migrants and natives, as well as income inequality in Germany from 1985 to 2015. We show that despite migrants catching up in education, employment, and income with their native counterparts, unfavorable societal attitudes toward them have remained virtually unchanged, which can be attributed to Bourdieu's conceptualization of cultural inheritance. We find that while income inequality has increased significantly over the 30-year period, this trend varied considerably by the federal state and that migration did nothing to add to inequality. Since both the German economy and society rely on migrants, there is a strong need for the narratives toward migrants to be based on empirical evidence. The findings of this study hold migrant-related policy implications not only for Germany but also for other developed nations that rely on migrants as a labor force.

本研究分析了从 1985 年到 2015 年德国移民和本地人之间教育和职业模式的演变,以及收入不平等的情况。我们发现,尽管移民在教育、就业和收入方面赶上了本地人,但社会对他们的不利态度却几乎没有改变,这可以归因于布迪厄的文化继承概念。我们发现,虽然收入不平等在 30 年间显著加剧,但这一趋势因联邦州的不同而有很大差异,移民并没有加剧不平等。由于德国的经济和社会都依赖于移民,因此对移民的叙述亟需以实证为基础。本研究的结果不仅对德国,而且对其他依赖移民作为劳动力的发达国家都具有与移民相关的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
Climate risk and commercial mortgage delinquency 气候风险与商业抵押贷款拖欠
IF 3.2 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-18 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12681
Rogier Holtermans, Matthew E. Kahn, Nils Kok

Natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires are projected to become more prevalent in the foreseeable future. Climate risk is, therefore, increasingly recognized as an important factor by policy makers, the investment community, and financial markets. Due to the immobility of assets, the commercial real estate industry is especially vulnerable to climate risk, and there is an increasing interest to understand the impact of climate risk on the value of commercial real estate. For commercial real estate lenders, changes in collateral value are only of partial importance. The ability of borrowers to meet their payment obligations is equally, if not more important. By combining historical data on two major climate-related disasters—Hurricanes Harvey and Sandy—with longitudinal information on commercial mortgage performance, this paper identifies the impact of climate risks on mortgage delinquency rates for commercial real estate mortgages. The results show that both Harvey and Sandy led to elevated levels of commercial mortgage delinquency, with significant heterogeneity based on the extent of damage in the Census block group. Information provided through FEMA 100-year floodplain maps partially mitigates the effects, an indication that lenders incorporate flood risk information in the underwriting process. An analysis of potential mechanisms indicates a decrease in property income during the 2-year period following the event for Hurricane Harvey, but no evidence of income effects for Sandy.

在可预见的未来,飓风、洪水、热浪和野火等自然灾害预计将更加普遍。因此,决策者、投资界和金融市场日益认识到气候风险是一个重要因素。由于资产的不流动性,商业房地产业尤其容易受到气候风险的影响,人们越来越有兴趣了解气候风险对商业房地产价值的影响。对于商业房地产贷款人来说,抵押品价值的变化只是部分重要因素。借款人履行付款义务的能力同样重要,甚至更为重要。通过将与气候相关的两大灾害--飓风哈维和桑迪--的历史数据与商业抵押贷款表现的纵向信息相结合,本文确定了气候风险对商业房地产抵押贷款拖欠率的影响。结果表明,哈维和桑迪都导致了商业抵押贷款拖欠率的上升,而且根据人口普查区块组的受损程度存在显著的异质性。联邦紧急事务管理局 100 年洪泛区地图提供的信息部分缓解了这种影响,这表明贷款人在承保过程中纳入了洪水风险信息。对潜在机制的分析表明,"哈维 "飓风事件发生后的两年内,财产收入有所减少,但没有证据表明 "桑迪 "飓风对收入产生了影响。
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引用次数: 0
Cultural shock of high-speed rail: Evidence from social trust 高铁带来的文化冲击:来自社会信任的证据
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-17 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12682
Fanglin Chen, Zhongfei Chen

The opening of high-speed rail (HSR), as an exogenous shock, has had a profound and complex effect on social life. This study analyzes the effect of the opening of HSR on social trust. Results show that the opening of HSR promotes social trust. Mechanism analysis showed that although the opening of HSR accelerated population mobility and decreased trust in strangers, economic growth and improvement of local social issues mitigated the negative effects of its opening. In addition, our results also show that individuals turn to trust in their parents, neighbors, and doctors. Considering the potential endogeneity problem, instrumental variable and difference-in-differences estimators consistently indicated the promoting effect of the HSR opening on trust. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the opening of HSR had a greater effect on female, urban residents, younger groups, and married people. Last, cities with larger populations and tourist cities were more vulnerable to shocks.

高铁(HSR)的开通作为一种外生冲击,对社会生活产生了深刻而复杂的影响。本研究分析了高铁开通对社会信任的影响。结果表明,高铁开通促进了社会信任。机制分析表明,虽然高铁开通加速了人口流动,降低了对陌生人的信任,但经济增长和当地社会问题的改善缓解了高铁开通的负面影响。此外,我们的结果还显示,个人转而信任父母、邻居和医生。考虑到潜在的内生性问题,工具变量和差分估计法一致表明高铁开通对信任有促进作用。异质性分析表明,高铁开通对女性、城市居民、年轻群体和已婚人士的影响更大。最后,人口较多的城市和旅游城市更容易受到冲击。
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引用次数: 0
Local employment multipliers for large publicly subsidized firms: Evidence from a synthetic control approach 大型公共补贴企业的当地就业乘数:合成控制法的证据
IF 3 3区 经济学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1111/jors.12680
Andrew Hanson, Shawn Rohlin

This paper provides estimates of local employment multipliers from large, publicly subsidized firms. We use a synthetic control weighted difference-in-difference estimation procedure that matches treated areas with comparison areas to generate local employment multiplier estimates. We show that local employment multiplier estimates have a high degree of uncertainty, with a wide range of point estimates (both positive and negative) and varying degrees of statistical significance. There is a concentration of positive employment multipliers from manufacturing facilities, but little correlation between estimated multipliers and subsidy value. We demonstrate that our approach produces drastically different results than a traditional difference-in-difference approach.

本文提供了来自大型公共补贴企业的当地就业乘数估计值。我们采用合成控制加权差分估算程序,将受惠地区与对比地区相匹配,得出当地就业乘数估算值。我们的研究表明,当地就业乘数估计值具有很大的不确定性,其点估计值范围很广(包括正值和负值),统计意义也各不相同。制造业设施的就业乘数集中为正值,但估计乘数与补贴价值之间几乎没有关联。我们证明,我们的方法与传统的差分法得出的结果截然不同。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Regional Science
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