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Minimum wage increases and vacancies 最低工资上涨和职位空缺
IF 2.6 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102765
Marianna Kudlyak , Murat Tasci , Didem Tüzemen
We use a unique data set and a novel identification strategy to estimate the effect of minimum wage increases on vacancy postings. Utilizing occupation-specific county-level vacancy data from the Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online for 2005-18, we find that state-level minimum wage increases lead to substantial declines in existing and new vacancy postings in occupations with a larger share of workers earning close to the effective minimum wage. We estimate that a 10 percent increase in the state-level effective minimum wage reduces vacancies in these occupations relative to the rest by 2.4 percent in the same quarter, and the cumulative effect is as large as 4.5 percent a year later. Focusing on vacancies rather than employment allows us to highlight changes in firms’ hiring intentions in response to minimum wage increases. Coupled with the earlier U.S. evidence showing reductions in separations following minimum wage hikes, our finding of declining vacancies contributes to the broader empirical literature suggesting negligible effects of minimum wage increases on net employment.
我们使用一个独特的数据集和一种新的识别策略来估计最低工资增长对职位空缺的影响。利用世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board) 2005年至2018年招聘在线(Help Wanted Online)中特定职业的县级职位空缺数据,我们发现,州级最低工资的提高导致收入接近有效最低工资的工人所占比例较大的职业的现有和新职位空缺大幅减少。我们估计,在同一季度,州级有效最低工资水平每提高10%,这些职业相对于其他职业的空缺就会减少2.4%,一年后的累积效应最高可达4.5%。关注职位空缺而非就业情况,使我们能够突出企业在应对最低工资上调时招聘意向的变化。再加上美国早期的证据显示最低工资上涨后离职率下降,我们关于职位空缺减少的发现有助于更广泛的实证文献,表明最低工资上涨对净就业的影响可以忽略不计。
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引用次数: 0
The ‘acting native’ hypothesis: Evidence from classrooms in four European countries “表现本土”假说:来自四个欧洲国家课堂的证据
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102764
Andreas Diemer
In analogy to the controversial ‘acting White’ narrative for racial achievement gaps among US children, I explore whether migrant background pupils in Europe are exposed to similar social pressure by their peers not to adopt behaviours perceived to be typical of the majority group, notably doing well in school. Leveraging comprehensive longitudinal data on classroom interactions and several proxies for academic achievement, including predetermined measures of ability, I find mixed and model-dependent evidence in support of this ‘acting native’ hypothesis in the European context.
与有争议的关于美国儿童种族成就差距的“扮演白人”叙事类似,我探讨了欧洲移民背景的学生是否面临着来自同龄人的类似社会压力,他们不采取被认为是大多数群体的典型行为,尤其是在学校表现良好。利用关于课堂互动的综合纵向数据和学术成就的几个代理,包括预先确定的能力测量,我发现在欧洲背景下支持这种“表现本土”假设的混合和依赖模型的证据。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of the wage offer distribution using both accepted and rejected offers 使用接受和拒绝的工作机会估计工资分配
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102756
Junjie Guo
This paper estimates the wage offer distribution using workers who received multiple offers in a short period of time, including both accepted and rejected offers. We show that, after accounting for worker heterogeneity and measurement error, each wage offer is a random draw from the same distribution, and a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 0.137 is consistent with data. The dispersion is smaller than most estimates in the literature, increasing in the unemployment rate for workers without a bachelor’s degree, but not significantly related to a worker’s age or employment status.
本文利用工人在短时间内收到多个报价(包括接受和拒绝的报价)来估计工资报价分布。我们表明,在考虑了工人的异质性和测量误差之后,每个工资报价都是来自同一分布的随机抽取,标准差为0.137的正态分布与数据一致。这种差异比文献中的大多数估计要小,没有学士学位的工人的失业率会增加,但与工人的年龄或就业状况没有显著关系。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding labour productivity in maternity wards 了解产房的劳动生产率
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102760
Marina Di Giacomo , Massimiliano Piacenza , Luca Salmasi , Gilberto Turati
This paper provides a causal estimate of labour productivity in maternity wards. We consider an Italian law that defines the staffing requirements of hospital maternity units according to the annual number of births. We exploit the discontinuities in the availability of medical staff caused by thresholds in the law to define both instrumental variables and a regression discontinuity framework that allows us to estimate the causal effect of different teams of professionals on the mode of delivery and on the health status of newborns and mothers at delivery. The analysis is based on detailed patient-level data on births in an Italian region. We find that maternity units with annual births above the thresholds are more likely to have a 'full team' of professionals at delivery. We find that having a full team has no effect on the mode of delivery (caesarean section vs vaginal birth). However, the presence of a full team has a significant impact on health outcomes. We find an improvement in both neonatal and maternal outcomes associated with a more intensive use of medical interventions, suggesting that larger hospitals are better than smaller units at managing deliveries with appropriate treatments to avoid complications. In addition, we do not find substantial heterogeneous effects across days of the week, time of day, or nationality of mothers.
本文提供了产房劳动生产率的因果估计。我们审议了一项意大利法律,该法律根据每年的出生人数规定了医院妇产部门的人员配备要求。我们利用法律中阈值导致的医务人员可用性的不连续性来定义工具变量和回归不连续性框架,使我们能够估计不同专业团队对分娩方式以及新生儿和分娩时母亲健康状况的因果影响。该分析基于意大利某地区详细的分娩患者数据。我们发现,年出生率高于阈值的产科单位更有可能在分娩时拥有“完整的专业团队”。我们发现,拥有一个完整的团队对分娩方式(剖腹产还是顺产)没有影响。但是,一个完整的小组的存在对健康结果有重大影响。我们发现,与更密集地使用医疗干预措施相关的新生儿和产妇结局都有所改善,这表明,在通过适当治疗避免并发症的分娩管理方面,大医院比小医院做得更好。此外,我们没有发现在一周中的几天、一天中的时间或母亲的国籍之间存在实质性的异质性影响。
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引用次数: 0
Relaxation of fertility restrictions, sibling composition and gender gap in education: Evidence from China’s 1.5-child policy 放宽生育限制、兄弟姐妹构成和教育中的性别差距:来自中国1.5胎政策的证据
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102757
Xiangbo Liu , Zhiying Sun , Daisheng Tang , Shuai Chu
Fertility restrictions are generally believed to have increased children’s educational attainment. However, knowledge of the effects of relaxing fertility restrictions on the gender gap in education is lacking. Using China’s 1.5-child policy as an example, we explore how relaxing fertility restrictions affects the gender gap in education. We first construct a simple model to analyze how different family planning policies influence the gender gap in education through their effects on sibling composition. Using data from the 2010 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), we next empirically estimate the policy effects through a triple-difference (DDD) approach. We find that the 1.5-child policy significantly widened the gender gap in education, primarily through a relative decline in female educational attainment compared to males. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the eldest daughters, particularly those with younger brothers, experience a larger decline in educational attainment. We uncover two mechanisms limiting girls’ schooling: resource dilution through more siblings, and caregiving burdens as eldest sisters. We also find that supportive education policies can help narrow the gender gap in education by mitigating the negative impact on females’ educational attainment.
人们普遍认为限制生育提高了儿童的受教育程度。但是,关于放宽生育限制对教育方面的性别差距的影响的知识缺乏。以中国的1.5孩政策为例,我们探讨了放宽生育限制如何影响教育中的性别差距。我们首先构建了一个简单的模型来分析不同的计划生育政策如何通过对兄弟姐妹构成的影响来影响教育中的性别差距。利用2010年中国家庭面板研究(CFPS)的数据,我们通过三差(DDD)方法对政策效果进行了实证估计。我们发现,1.5孩政策显著扩大了教育方面的性别差距,主要是通过女性受教育程度相对于男性的下降。异质性分析表明,大女儿,尤其是有弟弟的大女儿,受教育程度的下降幅度更大。我们发现了限制女孩上学的两种机制:通过更多的兄弟姐妹来稀释资源,以及作为大姐的照顾负担。我们还发现,支持性教育政策可以通过减轻对女性受教育程度的负面影响来帮助缩小教育中的性别差距。
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引用次数: 0
Out for good: Transitory and persistent labor market effects of heterogeneous health shocks 彻底退出:异质性健康冲击对劳动力市场的暂时和持续影响
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102747
Mattis Beckmannshagen , Johannes Koenig
We propose a novel method to detect and disentangle moderate and severe health shocks in a general population survey based on a data-driven classification of sickness absences and hospitalizations. Both types of shocks are widespread with an annual incidence of about 1.7%, which rises steeply with age. We estimate the effects of both shocks on labor market outcomes and find that severe shocks have more persistent effects on employment (7.5 percentage point reduction), labor income, and household net income. Moderate shocks have transitory effects on employment (2 percentage point reduction), but more long-lasting effects on work hours.
我们提出了一种基于数据驱动的缺勤和住院分类的普通人群调查中检测和解决中度和重度健康冲击的新方法。这两种类型的休克都很普遍,年发病率约为1.7%,随着年龄的增长而急剧上升。我们估计了两种冲击对劳动力市场结果的影响,发现严重冲击对就业(减少7.5个百分点)、劳动收入和家庭净收入的影响更为持久。适度冲击对就业有短暂影响(减少2个百分点),但对工作时间的影响更为持久。
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引用次数: 0
Does the identity of leaders matter for education? Evidence from the first black governor in the US 领导者的身份对教育有影响吗?来自美国第一位黑人州长的证据
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102749
Mery Ferrando , Véronique Gille
Can role models from the same group enhance educational outcomes of disadvantaged minority students? We analyze the election of Douglas Wilder in Virginia in 1989, who was the first Black American to serve as governor in the US. Results from a triple difference and an event-study approach demonstrate increased educational attainment among Black individuals in Virginia after the election. Using an original survey and secondary data, we provide suggestive evidence that a role model effect may be driving these results. Our findings thus suggest that increasing exposure to Black politicians in high-profile positions might contribute to narrowing the White-Black gap in education in the US.
来自同一群体的榜样能提高弱势少数民族学生的教育成果吗?我们分析了1989年弗吉尼亚州道格拉斯·怀尔德的选举,他是美国第一位担任州长的黑人。通过三重差异和事件研究方法得出的结果表明,选举后弗吉尼亚州黑人的受教育程度有所提高。使用原始调查和次要数据,我们提供了启发性证据,表明榜样效应可能推动了这些结果。因此,我们的研究结果表明,增加与黑人政治家的接触可能有助于缩小美国白人与黑人在教育方面的差距。
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引用次数: 0
Working from home after COVID-19: Evidence from job postings in 20 countries 2019冠状病毒病后在家工作:来自20个国家招聘信息的证据
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102751
Pawel Adrjan , Gabriele Ciminelli , Alexandre Judes , Michael Koelle , Cyrille Schwellnus , Tara M. Sinclair
Remote work surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. To analyze its post-pandemic persistency, we construct an original dataset measuring remote and hybrid work (WFH) in 20 OECD countries and 55 occupations from January 2019 to December 2023, based on over 1 billion job postings from the global job site Indeed. The share of job postings advertising WFH more than quadrupled from about 2.5 % to around 11 % between January 2020 and January 2023 in the average country in our sample, continuing to grow even after pandemic-related restrictions were phased out. Exploiting changes in pandemic severity across countries and differences in the feasibility of remote work across occupations in a difference-in-differences design, we find that increases in pandemic severity substantially raised advertised WFH, but pandemic easing had no effect. We then use job search data to document persistently high interest in WFH from jobseekers and conclude that the post-pandemic persistency of WFH may partly be a response by employers to demand for flexibility from workers.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,远程工作激增。为了分析其大流行后的持续性,我们构建了一个原始数据集,测量2019年1月至2023年12月期间20个经合组织国家和55个职业的远程和混合工作(WFH),该数据集基于全球求职网站Indeed的10多亿个招聘信息。在我们的样本中,在2020年1月至2023年1月期间,平均每个国家的招聘广告中,WFH的比例翻了两番多,从2.5%左右增至11%左右,即使在与大流行相关的限制措施逐步取消之后,这一比例仍在继续增长。在差异中差异设计中,利用各国大流行严重程度的变化和跨职业远程工作可行性的差异,我们发现大流行严重程度的增加大大提高了宣传的工作时间,但大流行缓解没有影响。然后,我们使用求职数据来记录求职者对工作时间的持续高兴趣,并得出结论,大流行后工作时间的持续存在可能部分是雇主对工人灵活性要求的回应。
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引用次数: 0
Partial retirement opportunities and the labor supply of older individuals 部分退休机会和老年人的劳动力供给
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102739
Tunga Kantarcı , Jim Been , Arthur van Soest , Daniël van Vuuren
We evaluate partial retirement options as an instrument to increase labor participation among older individuals. In a stated choice experiment, Dutch survey respondents were asked to choose among early, late and partial retirement scenarios purged from restrictions on part-time work and gradual retirement. Retirement scenario characteristics were randomized, generating rich variation in the choice options. The stated choices are validated using revealed preference data on (planned) retirement decisions. Using the stated choice data, we estimate a model that makes the trade-offs between leisure and income over the life cycle explicit, and use the estimated model for counterfactual policy simulations. We find that, as expected, higher (full) pension eligibility ages make actuarially fair (abrupt) early retirement more attractive and make late retirement less attractive, while about one in three respondents prefer partial retirement irrespective of the eligibility age. Early retirement becomes more attractive than late retirement when individuals do not have the partial retirement option. Moreover, the partial retirement decision is sensitive to financial incentives so that subsidizing partial retirement with higher wages or with more than actuarially fair pension increases for delaying retirement increases total labor supply. These findings demonstrate the potential of partial retirement as a policy instrument to stimulate labor participation, especially when pension eligibility is delayed.
我们评估部分退休选择作为一种工具,以增加劳动参与的老年人。在一项明确的选择实验中,荷兰的调查受访者被要求在提前退休、推迟退休和部分退休(不受兼职工作限制)和逐步退休之间做出选择。退休情景特征是随机化的,产生了丰富的选择选项。使用关于(计划的)退休决策的显示的偏好数据验证所述的选择。使用陈述的选择数据,我们估计了一个模型,使闲暇和收入之间的权衡在生命周期中明确,并使用估计模型反事实的政策模拟。我们发现,正如预期的那样,更高的(全额)养老金资格年龄使精算上公平的(突然的)提前退休更具吸引力,而使延迟退休更具吸引力,而大约三分之一的受访者更喜欢部分退休,而不管资格年龄如何。当个人没有部分退休选择时,提前退休比晚退休更有吸引力。此外,部分退休决策对财政激励很敏感,因此用更高的工资补贴部分退休,或者用超过精算公平的养老金增长来推迟退休,会增加总劳动力供给。这些发现表明,部分退休作为刺激劳动力参与的政策工具的潜力,特别是在养老金资格推迟的情况下。
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引用次数: 0
Do sibling correlations in skills, schooling, and earnings vary by socioeconomic background? Insights from Sweden 兄弟姐妹在技能、学校教育和收入方面的相关性是否因社会经济背景而异?来自瑞典的启示
IF 2.2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102741
Erika Forsberg , Akib Khan , Olof Rosenqvist
Family background shapes individual outcomes across the life cycle. While research documents how family background importance varies across countries, less is known about heterogeneities across socioeconomic groups within countries. Using comprehensive Swedish register data, we compare sibling correlations—a more holistic measure of family influence than direct parent–child associations—in skills, schooling, and earnings across fine-grained groups defined by parental socioeconomic status (SES). We find that sibling correlations generally decline with parental SES. This pattern holds across cognitive skills, schooling, and earnings, and is robust to alternative definitions of parental SES. The decline is particularly pronounced when comparing the lowest decile to higher SES groups. For education and earnings, the decline in sibling correlations at higher SES levels is primarily driven by increased within-family variation, suggesting siblings in advantaged families develop more individualized paths. For skills, the decline reflects decreasing between-family variation. This result is consistent with theories on reinforcing parental investments, though other mechanisms, including complementarities between investments and abilities, credit constraints faced by low-SES families and broader poverty traps, may also contribute. Our results suggest that children from low-SES backgrounds not only have worse average outcomes than those from high-SES homes but also face constraints on individual development. This study provides insights into how equality of opportunity varies across the socioeconomic spectrum, revealing nuances in family influence that country-level averages may obscure.
家庭背景决定了个人在整个生命周期中的结果。虽然研究记录了家庭背景的重要性在各国之间的差异,但对各国社会经济群体之间的异质性知之甚少。利用瑞典的综合登记数据,我们比较了由父母社会经济地位(SES)定义的细粒度群体在技能、学校教育和收入方面的兄弟姐妹相关性(比直接的亲子关系更全面的家庭影响衡量标准)。我们发现兄弟姐妹的相关性通常随着父母的SES而下降。这种模式适用于认知技能、学校教育和收入,并且适用于父母社会经济地位的其他定义。当将最低的十分之一群体与较高的社会地位群体进行比较时,这种下降尤为明显。在教育和收入方面,社会经济地位越高,兄弟姐妹相关性的下降主要是由家庭内部差异的增加所驱动的,这表明优势家庭的兄弟姐妹发展出更个性化的道路。就技能而言,这种下降反映了家庭间差异的减少。这一结果与加强亲代投资的理论是一致的,尽管其他机制,包括投资与能力之间的互补性、低社会经济地位家庭面临的信贷限制和更广泛的贫困陷阱,也可能起作用。我们的研究结果表明,来自低社会经济地位家庭的孩子不仅平均成绩比来自高社会经济地位家庭的孩子差,而且在个体发展方面也面临限制。这项研究提供了机会平等如何在社会经济范围内变化的见解,揭示了国家平均水平可能掩盖的家庭影响的细微差别。
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引用次数: 0
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Labour Economics
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