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Unpacking the rural–urban divide: Identities and stereotypes 解开城乡鸿沟:身份和刻板印象
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102935
Sofia Breitenstein , Toni Rodon , Guillem Riambau , Andreu Rodilla
The resurgence of the rural–urban divide as a factor shaping political attitudes has gained increasing attention in both public and academic discourse. Although often framed in terms of social identities, less is known about whether people actually express rural or urban identities in their own terms. This study investigates whether rural and urban identities exist independently of other identities such as class or ideology, and how they shape perceptions of in-groups and out-groups. Drawing on open-ended survey responses from a representative sample in Spain – a context where the rural–urban divide has gained political relevance – we use a novel text analysis approach to examine how individuals describe the groups they identify with. Findings show that rural–urban identities surface only marginally without explicit prompting, while identities tied to age, ideology, and education are more salient. When primed, some stereotypical traits emerge: rural communities are associated with nature and a relaxed lifestyle, while urban ones are linked to stress and individualism. A more uniform and stereotyped view of rural areas also appears across both rural and urban respondents.
城乡差距作为影响政治态度的一个因素的重新出现,在公共和学术话语中都得到了越来越多的关注。尽管人们通常以社会身份为框架,但人们是否真正以自己的方式表达农村或城市身份却鲜为人知。这项研究调查了农村和城市身份是否独立于阶级或意识形态等其他身份存在,以及它们如何塑造对群体内和群体外的看法。根据西班牙一个代表性样本的开放式调查回应——在这个背景下,城乡差距已经获得了政治相关性——我们使用一种新颖的文本分析方法来研究个人如何描述他们所认同的群体。研究结果显示,在没有明确提示的情况下,城乡身份认同只会略微出现,而与年龄、意识形态和教育相关的身份认同则更为突出。当被启动时,一些刻板的特征出现了:农村社区与自然和轻松的生活方式有关,而城市社区与压力和个人主义有关。农村和城市受访者对农村地区的看法也更为统一和刻板。
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引用次数: 0
Preferences for female successors: Evidence from a survey experiment among Japanese local politicians 对女性继任者的偏好:来自日本地方政客调查实验的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102956
Hikaru Nukui , Hirofumi Miwa , Yoshikuni Ono
Incumbents often serve as critical gatekeepers in the recruitment of new candidates and may even designate their successors upon retirement. Some existing research indicates that the gender of gatekeepers is likely to affect the recruitment of female candidates, a dynamic of particular concern in countries like Japan, where political offices are predominantly held by men. However, it remains unclear whether the underrepresentation of women stems from male incumbents actively discriminating against female candidates during the recruitment process. Through a survey experiment involving over 7000 elected local politicians in Japan, we examine gender biases in the successor selection process and attitudes toward female candidacy. Contrary to our expectations, the results reveal that local politicians, irrespective of their own gender, are more inclined to nominate women over men as their successors. They also believe that these female candidates would receive support from their local constituencies. These findings suggest that the selection practices of incumbents may not significantly contribute to the underrepresentation of women in politics.
在职者通常在招聘新候选人时充当关键的看门人,甚至可能在退休后指定继任者。现有的一些研究表明,看门人的性别可能会影响女性候选人的招聘,这在日本等政治职位主要由男性担任的国家尤其令人担忧。然而,目前尚不清楚妇女任职人数不足是否源于男性在职人员在招聘过程中积极歧视女性候选人。通过对日本7000多名民选地方政治家的调查实验,我们研究了继任者选择过程中的性别偏见以及对女性候选人的态度。与我们的预期相反,结果显示,无论性别如何,地方政客更倾向于提名女性而不是男性作为他们的继任者。他们还认为,这些女性候选人将得到当地选民的支持。这些发现表明,现任官员的选拔做法可能不会显著地导致女性在政治中的代表性不足。
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引用次数: 0
The politics of litigating and adjudicating electoral disputes: Evidence from Zambia 诉讼和裁决选举纠纷的政治:来自赞比亚的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102955
Øyvind Stiansen , Haakon Gjerløw , Lise Rakner
Elections are increasingly judicialized in many multiparty regimes. The ability to challenge flawed elections in independent courts can be crucial for democratization, may deter irregularities, and may prevent post-election violence. However, litigating against the elections of opposition candidates can also enable ruling parties to consolidate control following narrow electoral victories. In executive-dominated systems, such a strategy may be facilitated by how uneven access to resources may make litigation particularly attractive for ruling-party candidates and by how judges may feel pressured to nullify opposition victories, triggering by-elections that ruling parties are likely to win. We investigate these expectations using a novel dataset of electoral petitions from the 2011, 2016, and 2021 Zambian elections. We show that losing candidates from the party gaining or retaining control over the executive were more likely to litigate against their losses. However, we find no evidence that judges tended to favor these candidates relative to other petitioners.
在许多多党制政体中,选举日益司法化。在独立的法庭上对有缺陷的选举提出质疑的能力对民主化至关重要,可能会阻止违规行为,并可能防止选举后的暴力。然而,对反对派候选人的选举提起诉讼也可以使执政党在选举中险胜后巩固控制。在行政主导的体制中,这样的策略可能会得到促进,因为获取资源的不平衡可能会使诉讼对执政党候选人特别有吸引力,而且法官可能会感到压力,要宣布反对派的胜利无效,从而引发执政党可能获胜的补选。我们使用2011年、2016年和2021年赞比亚选举请愿书的新数据集来调查这些期望。我们的研究表明,来自获得或保留对行政部门控制权的政党的失败候选人更有可能对他们的损失提起诉讼。然而,我们没有发现证据表明法官倾向于支持这些候选人而不是其他请愿者。
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引用次数: 0
Rural representation in Europe: The presence of place in national parliaments 欧洲的农村代表权:在国家议会中的地位
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102962
Guillem Rico, Rubén García del Horno, Enrique Hernández
Recent research shows a growing rural-urban divide in political attitudes and behavior, which has given currency to expressions like “places that don't matter” and “rural resentment”. Although these accounts point to a crisis of political representation, the topic has hardly been approached from the theories and methods of the unequal representation literature. Against this backdrop, this paper provides a systematic assessment of biases in place-related descriptive representation in 28 European countries. Using data on legislator biographies and geographic and demographic statistics, we first examine the relative presence of legislators with urban and rural backgrounds in national parliaments, and then assess the extent to which parliamentary composition, in terms of members' birthplaces, reflects the broader demographic makeup of country populations. Next, we explore how variation in the territorial background of legislators relates to country, party, and individual-level factors. Results show that rural areas tend to be underrepresented in national parliaments when compared to urban ones. Differences in the descriptive representation of rural areas vary in consistent ways with urbanization levels, electoral system features, parties' characteristic constituencies, territorial embeddedness and ideological orientation, and legislator sociodemographics. The study's results underscore the need for greater scholarly attention to the representation of place—particularly rural areas—to better understand its potential consequences on symbolic marginalization, feelings of exclusion, and a lack of policies addressing their needs, all of which may fuel political polarization and distrust in democratic institutions.
最近的研究表明,城乡之间在政治态度和行为上的差距越来越大,这使得诸如“无关紧要的地方”和“农村怨恨”等表达变得流行起来。虽然这些论述指出了政治代表权的危机,但这个话题几乎没有从不平等代表权文献的理论和方法中得到探讨。在此背景下,本文对28个欧洲国家中与地方相关的描述性代表性的偏见进行了系统评估。利用立法者传记和地理和人口统计数据,我们首先检查了具有城市和农村背景的立法者在国家议会中的相对存在,然后评估议会组成在多大程度上反映了议员的出生地,反映了国家人口的更广泛的人口构成。接下来,我们将探讨立法者地域背景的变化与国家、政党和个人层面的因素之间的关系。结果显示,与城市地区相比,农村地区在国家议会中的代表性往往不足。农村地区描述性代表性的差异与城市化水平、选举制度特征、政党的特色选区、地域嵌入性和意识形态取向以及立法者的社会人口特征一致。该研究的结果强调了需要更多的学术关注的地方代表性,特别是农村地区,以更好地理解其潜在的后果,象征性的边缘化,排斥的感觉,缺乏政策解决他们的需求,所有这些都可能加剧政治两极分化和不信任民主制度。
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引用次数: 0
Self-interest and voter support for defund the police 自身利益和选民支持撤资警察
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102958
Marcel Roman , Benjamin Newman
Prior research documents the importance of race, prejudice, and partisanship in shaping mass position-taking on police reform; however, little-to-no research explores self-interest as a potentially operative factor—especially for reforms affecting police budgets and service capacity. We identify a form of self-interest theoretically present for voters when considering “defund the police” proposals and utilize as a test case a police defunding ballot initiative in Los Angeles County with a rare feature rendering it uniquely well-suited for detecting voter self-interest: it targeted the county sheriff's department and was voted on by county residents under and not under this agency's jurisdiction. Using a spatial discontinuity design leveraging contiguous election precincts along different sides of the sheriff department's jurisdictional boundaries, we find little-to-no evidence that voters sought to protect the budget—and thus service capacity—of their public safety provider. Instead, we find evidence that voting was largely driven by anti-minority orientations.
先前的研究记录了种族、偏见和党派关系在塑造警察改革的群众立场方面的重要性;然而,很少甚至没有研究将自身利益作为一个潜在的操作因素,特别是在影响警察预算和服务能力的改革中。在考虑“撤资警察”提案时,我们确定了选民理论上存在的一种自利形式,并利用洛杉矶县的一个警察撤资投票倡议作为测试案例,该倡议具有一个罕见的特征,使其非常适合检测选民的自利:它以县治安部门为目标,由县居民在该机构管辖和不管辖下投票。利用空间不连续设计,利用治安部门管辖边界两侧的连续选区,我们发现几乎没有证据表明选民试图保护其公共安全提供者的预算,从而保护其服务能力。相反,我们发现有证据表明,投票在很大程度上是由反少数族裔倾向推动的。
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引用次数: 0
Place-based resentment and party support in multiparty systems: A study of three consecutive elections in the Netherlands 多党制中基于地域的怨恨和政党支持:对荷兰连续三次选举的研究
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102963
Twan Huijsmans, Wouter van der Brug
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引用次数: 0
Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy 快乐和光荣?英国君主政体有时带来的统一效应
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102961
Braeden Davis , Yu-Shiuan Huang
Do monarchs unify? This article is the first to test whether monarchs promote unity by increasing national pride and decreasing political animus (affective polarization). Using two waves of an original survey experiment on thousands of British participants, we show that priming respondents to think favorably of the monarchy increased feelings of national pride and indirectly reduced affective polarization. Surprisingly however, this effect is only found when measuring affective polarization using social distance and not feeling thermometer items. This suggests that the monarchy has the capacity to reduce feelings of hostility towards fellow countrymen but may not reduce hostility towards political parties. In exploratory analyses we also found treatment increased respondents’ conviction that Scotland and Northern Ireland should remain part of the UK, also mediated by national pride. Our results recommend monarchies in democracies as a promising field for future research by political scientists.
君主会统一吗?这篇文章首次测试君主是否通过增加民族自豪感和减少政治敌意(情感两极分化)来促进团结。通过对数千名英国参与者进行的两波原始调查实验,我们表明,启动受访者对君主制的好感增加了民族自豪感,并间接减少了情感两极分化。然而,令人惊讶的是,这种效应只在使用社会距离而不是感觉温度计项目来测量情感两极分化时发现。这表明,君主制有能力减少对同胞的敌意,但可能无法减少对政党的敌意。在探索性分析中,我们还发现治疗增加了受访者的信念,即苏格兰和北爱尔兰应该留在英国的一部分,这也是由民族自豪感调解的。我们的研究结果表明,民主国家的君主制是政治科学家未来研究的一个有前途的领域。
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引用次数: 0
Voting alone: Early voting and turnout in couples 单独投票:提前投票和夫妻投票
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102960
Johannes Bergh , Dag Arne Christensen , Henning Finseraas
Low-turnout groups have less knowledge and understanding of politics. Therefore, their decision to vote may depend more on their family/partner, in which case voting is more of a social than an individual act. The increased use of early voting makes voting more individualized, and we ask if that has a detrimental effect on the propensity to vote in certain groups. If the partner votes prior to election day does that influence the turnout decision of the other partner? Based on administrative voter data covering the entire Norwegian population over several elections, we find that low-propensity voters in couples are demobilized by a partner's early vote, whereas, if anything, the opposite is true for high-propensity voters. There is no demobilization effect in a placebo analysis of couples who divorce between two elections, which suggests that demobilization among couples is not purely driven by selection into early voting.
投票率低的群体对政治的认识和理解更少。因此,他们投票的决定可能更多地取决于他们的家人/伴侣,在这种情况下,投票更多地是一种社会行为,而不是个人行为。越来越多地使用提前投票使投票更加个性化,我们想知道这是否对某些群体的投票倾向产生了有害影响。如果合伙人在选举日之前投票,会影响另一个合伙人的投票决定吗?根据几次选举中覆盖整个挪威人口的行政选民数据,我们发现夫妻中的低倾向选民会因伴侣的提前投票而被遣散,然而,如果有的话,高倾向选民的情况正好相反。在对两次选举之间离婚的夫妇进行的安慰剂分析中,没有出现遣散效应,这表明夫妇之间的遣散并不纯粹是由提前投票的选择所驱动的。
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引用次数: 0
Toothless compulsory voting can increase turnout: Evidence from India 无效的强制投票可以提高投票率:来自印度的证据
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102951
Reshikesav Rajan , Shane P. Singh
Many places with mandatory voting do not enforce the legal obligation to participate. This raises the question of whether such “toothless” compulsory voting increases turnout, to which existing research provides conflicting answers. We expect that toothless mandatory voting boosts participation, as laws can shape behavior absent deterrence. Leveraging a reform in India, and with a novel dataset, we conduct a causally identified study of the impact of non-penalized compulsory voting. We precisely estimate a large and positive effect of toothless compulsory voting on turnout. This suggests that policymakers aiming to bolster participation can do so with this gentler form of compulsory voting, which entails no punishment of abstainers.
许多实行强制性投票的地方并没有强制执行参加投票的法律义务。这就提出了这样一个问题,即这种“无牙”的强制投票是否会增加投票率,而现有的研究对此提供了相互矛盾的答案。我们认为,没有约束力的强制性投票可以促进参与,因为法律可以塑造缺乏威慑力的行为。利用印度的一项改革,利用一个新的数据集,我们对非惩罚性强制投票的影响进行了一项因果识别研究。我们准确地估计了无牙强制投票对投票率的巨大而积极的影响。这表明,旨在促进参与的政策制定者可以通过这种温和形式的强制投票来做到这一点,这种投票不需要对弃权者进行惩罚。
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引用次数: 0
With a little help from the crowd: Estimating election fraud with forensic methods 在群众的帮助下:用法医方法估计选举舞弊
IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2025-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102943
Christoph Koenig
Election forensics are a widespread tool for diagnosing electoral manipulation out of statistical anomalies in publicly available election micro-data. Yet, in spite of their popularity, they are only rarely used to measure and compare variation in election fraud at the sub-national level. The typical challenges faced by researchers are the wide range of forensic indicators to choose from, the potential variation in manipulation methods across time and space and the difficulty in creating a measure of fraud intensity that is comparable across geographic units and elections. This paper outlines a procedure to overcome these issues by making use of directly observed instances of fraud and machine learning methods. I demonstrate the performance of this procedure for the case of post-2000 Russia and discuss advantages and pitfalls. The resulting estimates of fraud intensity are closely in line with quantitative and qualitative secondary data at the cross-sectional and time-series level.
选举取证是一种广泛使用的工具,用于从公开的选举微观数据的统计异常中诊断选举操纵。然而,尽管它们很受欢迎,但它们很少被用来衡量和比较地方选举舞弊的变化。研究人员面临的典型挑战是可供选择的法医指标范围广泛,操纵方法在时间和空间上的潜在变化,以及难以创建跨地理单位和选举可比较的欺诈强度衡量标准。本文概述了通过使用直接观察到的欺诈实例和机器学习方法来克服这些问题的程序。我将以2000年后的俄罗斯为例演示该程序的性能,并讨论其优点和缺陷。由此产生的欺诈强度估计与横截面和时间序列水平上的定量和定性二手数据密切一致。
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引用次数: 0
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Electoral Studies
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