Electoral Studies最新文献

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Election-induced fiscal policy cycles in democratic and non-democratic emerging market and developing economies 民主和非民主的新兴市场和发展中经济体由选举引发的财政政策周期

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102936

Jakob de Haan , Franziska Ohnsorge , Shu Yu

We examine a broad set of fiscal outcomes around elections for 104 emerging market and developing economies covering the years 1993–2022, probe for differences between democracies and non-democracies, and estimate the degree to which fiscal deteriorations are reversed after elections. We show three patterns. First, primary deficits rise statistically significantly during elections by 0.6 percentage points of GDP. Primary spending, especially the government wage bill, also rises while indirect tax revenues fall. Second, these deteriorations occur in democracies and non-democracies alike. Third, the deterioration in primary deficits is not reversed after elections, and the deterioration in primary spending is partially reversed after the election, mainly through cuts in capital spending. This pattern, which holds for democracies and non-democracies, implies that deficits in emerging market and developing economies ratchet up over the course of several election cycles. Finally, we find that strong checks and balances, fiscal rules, and the presence of an IMF program partly mitigate the impact of elections on fiscal positions.

我们研究了1993年至2022年104个新兴市场和发展中经济体在选举前后的一系列财政结果，探讨了民主国家和非民主国家之间的差异，并估计了选举后财政恶化的逆转程度。我们展示了三种模式。首先，初选赤字占GDP的比例在统计上显著上升0.6个百分点。初级支出，尤其是政府工资支出，也会增加，而间接税收入则会下降。其次，这些恶化同样发生在民主国家和非民主国家。第三，选举后，初级赤字的恶化没有得到扭转，而初级支出的恶化在选举后得到部分扭转，主要是通过削减资本支出。这种模式适用于民主国家和非民主国家，意味着新兴市场和发展中经济体的赤字会在几个选举周期中逐渐增加。最后，我们发现，强有力的制衡、财政规则以及IMF计划的存在，在一定程度上减轻了选举对财政状况的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating nonresponse and non-sampling error trends in election studies 评估选举研究中的非响应和非抽样误差趋势

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102934

Hafsteinn Einarsson, Agnar Freyr Helgason

Political scientists rely on election studies as high-quality sources of data on voting behavior and attitudes. However, despite a cross-national trend of declining response rates over time and a lively debate regarding the accuracy of pre-election polls, data quality in election studies is an underdiscussed topic. In this paper, we address this research gap by focusing on trends in survey participation and non-sampling errors over time using data from the Icelandic National Election Study over a period spanning nearly four decades (1983–2021). We find that response rates have halved in the period under study (from around 70 % to 36 %), caused by increasing noncontact rates. Focusing on sample composition, we find that response rates have declined more among young adults and those without university degrees than other sample subgroups. To assess non-sampling error trends, we propose a simple metric based on the mean average error (MAE), which accounts for the number of parties and the sample size. Surprisingly, we find that despite decreasing response rates, the MAE has not increased, and for most elections, we cannot rule out sampling error alone as the explanation for the MAE. Finally, we show that adjustment weights have small and inconsistent effects on the MAE, suggesting that the auxiliary information available in the Icelandic context lacks the strong correlations needed to reduce error in the estimation of vote choice. We conclude with a discussion of these findings, their implications, and some guidance for practitioners seeking to evaluate data quality that can inform changes to the design of election studies.

政治学家依靠选举研究作为投票行为和态度的高质量数据来源。然而，尽管随着时间的推移，回复率呈跨国下降趋势，关于选举前民意调查准确性的辩论也很激烈，但选举研究中的数据质量仍是一个未被充分讨论的话题。在本文中，我们通过使用冰岛全国选举研究近四十年（1983-2021）的数据，关注调查参与和非抽样误差随时间的趋势来解决这一研究差距。我们发现，在研究期间，由于不接触率的增加，回复率下降了一半（从大约70%降至36%）。关注样本组成，我们发现年轻人和没有大学学位的人的回复率比其他样本亚组下降得更多。为了评估非抽样误差趋势，我们提出了一个基于平均误差（MAE）的简单度量，它考虑了参与方的数量和样本量。令人惊讶的是，我们发现尽管回答率下降，MAE并没有增加，而且对于大多数选举，我们不能排除抽样误差单独作为MAE的解释。最后，我们表明调整权重对MAE的影响很小且不一致，这表明冰岛背景下可用的辅助信息缺乏减少投票选择估计误差所需的强相关性。最后，我们讨论了这些发现及其影响，并为寻求评估数据质量的从业者提供了一些指导，这些数据质量可以为选举研究设计的变化提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

Political economy models and UK election forecasting: End game? 政治经济模型与英国大选预测：终局？

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102933

John Kenny , Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Political economy models have been applied to election forecasting for some time. However, in the United Kingdom, as well as elsewhere, other methodologies have come to the fore to take their place alongside the forecasting methodology of vote intention polling. Returning to a classic Political Economy model first successfully tested on the 2001 General Election, we ask whether it still has relevance today. After various time series analyses of UK general elections (1955 to the present), we find that it does. The model manages to forecast the vote share of the incumbent party rather accurately, via three predictor variables: economic performance, executive/prime ministerial approval, and the number of terms in office. For the 2024 contest, it forecasted, before-the-fact, a Conservative defeat of historic proportions.

政治经济学模型应用于选举预测已有一段时间。然而，在联合王国以及其他地方，其他方法已经脱颖而出，与投票意向调查的预测方法并列。回到在2001年大选中首次成功测试的经典政治经济学模型，我们问它今天是否仍然有意义。在对英国大选（1955年至今）的各种时间序列分析后，我们发现确实如此。该模型通过三个预测变量：经济表现、行政长官/总理支持率和任期数，相当准确地预测了现任政党的选票份额。对于2024年的大选，它提前预测保守党将遭遇历史性的失败。

引用次数: 0

Voting under debtor distress 债务人困境下投票

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-04-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102929

Jakub Grossmann , Štěpán Jurajda

There is growing evidence on the role of economic conditions, including household debt levels, in the recent successes of populist and extremist parties. However, little is known about the role of over-indebtedness, even though debtor distress has grown in Europe following the financial crisis. We study the unique case of the Czech Republic, where by 2017 nearly one in ten citizens had been served at least one debtor distress warrant even though the country consistently features low unemployment. Our municipality-level difference-in-differences analysis asks about the voting consequences of a rise in debtor distress following a 2001 deregulation of consumer-debt collection. We find that debtor distress depresses turnout, and has a positive effect on support for (new) extreme-right and populist parties, which is offset by a negative effect on a (traditional) extreme-left party. The effects of debtor distress we uncover are robust to whether and how we control for economic hardship; the effects of debtor distress and of unemployment are of similar magnitude, but operate in opposing directions across the political spectrum.

越来越多的证据表明，经济状况（包括家庭债务水平）在民粹主义和极端主义政党最近的成功中发挥了作用。然而，人们对过度负债的作用知之甚少，尽管在金融危机之后，欧洲的债务人困境有所加剧。我们研究了捷克共和国的独特案例，到2017年，尽管该国失业率一直很低，但仍有近十分之一的公民至少收到了一份债务人困境认股权证。我们的市级差异分析询问了2001年消费者债务催收放松管制后债务人困境上升的投票后果。我们发现，债务人困境抑制了投票率，并对（新）极右和民粹主义政党的支持产生了积极影响，这被（传统）极左政党的负面影响所抵消。我们发现的债务人困境的影响与我们是否以及如何控制经济困难息息相关；债务人困境和失业的影响程度相似，但在整个政治领域的作用方向相反。

引用次数: 0

What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change? 是什么推动了大学学习和态度变化之间的联系？

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-04-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102930

Elizabeth Simon , Daniel Devine , Jamie Furlong

What drives the link between university study and attitudinal change? While research shows that obtaining a degree tends to make students more socially liberal, little is known about what drives this effect. We address this ‘how’ question by testing the socialisation-based mechanisms through which university study may shift attitudes; combining individual-level panel data from the British Election Study Internet Panel with university- and constituency-level data about where respondents studied to estimate sub-group effects. Our results suggest that students tend to shift their attitudes subtly in a leftward and liberal direction whilst at university, but that this average effect is larger for: those who graduate younger, who study STEM and other non-HSS subjects (social attitudes only), who move away from home to study, who attend single campus institutions, and who live in ‘university towns’ and ‘cosmopolitan London’ while studying (all economic attitudes only). Overall, we find evidence to suggest that the socialisation experiences individuals are exposed to while studying have important shaping effects on their attitudes.

是什么推动了大学学习和态度变化之间的联系？虽然研究表明，获得学位往往会使学生在社会上更加自由，但人们对这种影响的原因知之甚少。我们通过测试大学学习可能改变态度的基于社会化的机制来解决这个“如何”的问题；将来自英国选举研究互联网小组的个人层面的小组数据与大学和选区层面的数据相结合，以估计受访者在哪里学习的子群体效应。我们的研究结果表明，在大学期间，学生倾向于将他们的态度微妙地转向左翼和自由主义方向，但这种平均影响更大：那些年轻毕业的人，学习STEM和其他非hss科目的人（仅社会态度），远离家乡学习的人，就读单一校园机构的人，以及在学习期间住在“大学城”和“大都会伦敦”的人（仅经济态度）。总的来说，我们发现有证据表明，个人在学习时所接触到的社交经历对他们的态度有重要的塑造作用。

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引用次数: 0

Voter support for illiberal candidates: Demonstrating the differential influence of authoritarianism's three facets on vote choice 选民对非自由主义候选人的支持：威权主义三个方面对投票选择的不同影响

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-04-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102931

Aaron Dusso, Tijen Demirel-Pegg

The success of illiberal candidates across the globe has spurred scholars to better understand why millions of voters support candidates and parties that engage in anti-democratic practices that erode the very foundation of their countries’ democratic systems. While much research has turned to the psychological disposition known as authoritarianism for answers, few have gone beyond the general concept’s single dimension. This leaves us with an incomplete answer. Authoritarianism consists of three facets (submission, conventionalism, and aggression) and it cannot be assumed that each of these facets has the same influence on voters across all candidates and political contexts. Indeed, through the implementation of surveys in six countries following their recent national elections, we demonstrate how our understanding of authoritarian voter support for illiberal candidates is dependent on scholars’ choice of a single or multidimensional measure. The single dimensional measure shows a placid story consistent with previous research, i.e., scoring high in the authoritarianism leads to support for right-wing candidates. The three-dimensional story is much different, with support varying substantially from one candidate and facet to the next.

全球范围内非自由派候选人的成功促使学者们更好地理解，为什么数以百万计的选民支持那些从事有损本国民主制度根基的反民主行为的候选人和政党。虽然许多研究转向被称为威权主义的心理倾向来寻求答案，但很少有研究超越了一般概念的单一维度。这给我们留下了一个不完整的答案。威权主义包括三个方面（服从、传统和侵略），不能假设这些方面中的每一个对所有候选人和政治背景下的选民都有相同的影响。事实上，通过在六个国家最近的全国选举后实施的调查，我们证明了我们对专制选民对非自由派候选人的支持的理解如何取决于学者对单一或多维衡量标准的选择。单维度测量显示了一个与先前研究一致的平静故事，即威权主义得分高导致对右翼候选人的支持。三维的情况则大不相同，支持度因候选人而异。

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引用次数: 0

How does rurality affect campaigning? 乡村是如何影响竞选的？

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-04-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102932

Stephanie Luke , Charles Pattie , Luke Temple , Katharine Dommett

In the UK, some constituencies are physically small and take in parts of densely populated cities, while others span huge geographic areas and may contain islands or hard to reach communities. These size variations have been shown to have important implications for the nature of electoral representation, but their impact on election campaigning is less discussed. In this paper we examine this relationship, using a mixed method approach to consider whether and how rurality affects campaign activity. First, conducting interviews with Scottish National Party campaigners and elected representatives from rural and urban constituencies, we identify a number of perceived challenges associated with rural campaigning. We then evaluate some of these perceptions at recent British general elections using data from the BES panel survey and from constituency election results. The perception that campaigns in rural constituencies take more time and effort, cost more to undertake, have different contact styles and are less effective in rural than in urban areas seems to be partly true for campaign contacts, but less so for campaign spending (a wider measure of campaign effort) or for campaign effectiveness. Campaigners’ perceptions of a rural disadvantage does not appear to be fully borne out in reality.

在英国，一些选区很小，只占人口密集城市的一部分，而另一些选区则跨越巨大的地理区域，可能包含岛屿或难以到达的社区。这些规模的变化已被证明对选举代表制的性质有重要的影响，但它们对竞选活动的影响却很少被讨论。在本文中，我们研究了这种关系，使用混合方法来考虑乡村性是否以及如何影响竞选活动。首先，对苏格兰民族党竞选者和来自农村和城市选区的当选代表进行采访，我们确定了与农村竞选相关的一些感知挑战。然后，我们使用来自BES小组调查和选区选举结果的数据来评估最近英国大选中的一些看法。农村选区的竞选活动需要更多的时间和精力，成本更高，联系方式不同，在农村地区的效果不如城市地区，这种看法似乎在竞选联系方面部分成立，但在竞选支出（一种更广泛的竞选努力衡量标准）或竞选效果方面就不那么成立了。竞选者对农村劣势的看法在现实中似乎并没有得到充分证实。

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引用次数: 0

Electoral role models: The impact of gender quotas on voters in Taiwan 选举榜样：性别配额对台湾选民的影响

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102927

Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee

While previous research suggests that dynasty politics and gender quotas may undermine the symbolic representation of women, Taiwan combines both unfavorable conditions yet boasts one of the highest female political participation. We argue this is explained by gender quotas enhancing the competitiveness of female candidates, thereby fostering a role model effect during campaigns. Using a quasi-experimental design based on the implementation of gender quotas in Taiwan's local elections, we analyze data from five waves of the Asian Barometer Survey (2005–2022). Our findings show that quotas significantly increase political interest among female voters but do not impact political efficacy and gender attitudes. This study challenges prevailing perspectives by examining Taiwan's case and offers insights into how gender role models can emerge in electoral contexts.

虽然先前的研究表明，王朝政治和性别配额可能会削弱女性的象征性代表性，但台湾结合了这两种不利条件，却拥有最高的女性参政率之一。我们认为，这可以通过性别配额来解释，性别配额提高了女性候选人的竞争力，从而在竞选期间形成了榜样效应。采用准实验设计，以台湾地方选举性别配额的实施为研究对象，分析2005-2022年亚洲晴雨表调查的五波数据。我们的研究结果表明，配额显著增加了女性选民的政治兴趣，但不影响政治效能和性别态度。本研究透过台湾案例，挑战主流观点，并提供性别角色模范如何在选举情境中出现的见解。

引用次数: 0

A quiet and invisible challenge: Depressive symptoms and the evaluation of democratic institutions 一个无声而无形的挑战：抑郁症状和对民主制度的评价

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102928

Claudia Landwehr , Christopher Ojeda , Paul Weingärtner

Depressive symptoms in citizens are a strong predictor of political non-participation and have considerable negative effects on motivation and political interest. Apparently, the way in which depressed citizens relate to democratic institutions significantly differs from that of other citizens. In this letter, we therefore explore the relationship between depressive symptoms and the assessment of democracy. We test whether depressive symptoms, and the negativity bias they engender, lead to more negative evaluations of democratic institutions, practices and performance. Drawing on data from the European Social Survey, we find depression has negative effects on the assessment of democracy across countries and evaluative dimensions, and that on average, people with depressive symptoms have more negative views about democracy in their own country. An analysis of longitudinal data from Germany provides further evidence by demonstrating that intrapersonal changes in depression over time lead to changes in democratic evaluations.

公民的抑郁症状是政治不参与的强烈预测因子，对动机和政治兴趣有相当大的负面影响。显然，抑郁公民与民主制度的联系方式与其他公民明显不同。因此，在这封信中，我们探讨了抑郁症状与民主评估之间的关系。我们测试抑郁症状及其产生的消极偏见是否会导致对民主制度、做法和表现的更多负面评价。根据欧洲社会调查（European Social Survey）的数据，我们发现抑郁对各国对民主的评估和评估维度都有负面影响，平均而言，有抑郁症状的人对自己国家的民主有更多负面看法。一项来自德国的纵向数据分析提供了进一步的证据，表明随着时间的推移，抑郁症的个人变化会导致民主评估的变化。

引用次数: 0

Who are the internet voters? An age, period and cohort analysis of e-voting use 谁是互联网选民？电子投票使用的年龄、时期和队列分析

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2025-03-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.102923

Moulay Lablih , Pascal Sciarini

Existing research highlights age-related differences in internet voting but fails to disentangle the underlying effects. We conduct an age, period and cohort (APC) analysis of e-voting use on a unique set of registered, panel data covering 46 ballots in Switzerland between 2004 and 2019. Our findings reveal a joint influence of cohort and age effects on the likelihood of voting online. Voters born between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s display the highest e-voting rates, surpassing both younger and older cohorts. However, within these intermediate cohorts, e-voting usage declines notably with age. In contrast, age exerts little to no influence on e-voting among the youngest cohort (born in the 1990s) and the oldest cohorts (1930s and 1940s), with usage nearing zero for the latter group. These results refine our understanding of how age influences e-voting adoption and help to evaluate its potential to increase voter turnout.

现有的研究强调了网络投票中与年龄相关的差异，但未能理清潜在的影响。我们对2004年至2019年在瑞士进行的46张选票进行了年龄、时期和群体（APC）分析。我们的研究结果揭示了队列效应和年龄效应对在线投票可能性的共同影响。上世纪60年代中期至80年代中期出生的选民显示出最高的电子投票率，超过了年轻人和老年人。然而，在这些中间人群中，电子投票的使用随着年龄的增长而显著下降。相比之下，年龄对最年轻的人群（90后）和最年长的人群（30年代和40年代）的电子投票几乎没有影响，后者的使用量接近于零。这些结果完善了我们对年龄如何影响电子投票采用的理解，并有助于评估其增加选民投票率的潜力。

引用次数: 0

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