Abstract:Indonesia's democracy is among the world's most important both to understand and to defend. The world's largest Muslim country has proven that democracy can emerge and endure in surprising ways and in a surprising place, with intriguing lessons for democratic emergence and endurance elsewhere. Yet democracy is regressing and endangered in Indonesia, in line with distressing global trends. This not only threatens the country's 275 million citizens with the loss of their hard-fought freedoms. It threatens to deprive global democratic actors and activists of a successful example of the most plausible path to democracy in an age of democratic retrenchment: authoritarian-led democratization.
{"title":"What Indonesian Democracy Can Teach the World","authors":"D. Slater","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Indonesia's democracy is among the world's most important both to understand and to defend. The world's largest Muslim country has proven that democracy can emerge and endure in surprising ways and in a surprising place, with intriguing lessons for democratic emergence and endurance elsewhere. Yet democracy is regressing and endangered in Indonesia, in line with distressing global trends. This not only threatens the country's 275 million citizens with the loss of their hard-fought freedoms. It threatens to deprive global democratic actors and activists of a successful example of the most plausible path to democracy in an age of democratic retrenchment: authoritarian-led democratization.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"109 - 95"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44796099","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Over the last century, there has been a seismic shift in the landscape of LGBTQ+ rights in much of the world—particularly in Western Europe, the Americas, and Australasia. One of the more striking features of this shift has been the embrace of the cause of gay rights and equality by numerous right-of-center political parties in Europe. These right-of-center parties have also been electing gay, lesbian, and bisexual candidates and leaders. Behind this trend seems to be a combination of evolving social values, leadership strategies and choices, and declining religiosity among voters. The evolution of the European right's views on LGBTQ+ rights raises a number of questions: Most important, what has motivated such parties to embrace gay rights—a fundamental change in values, or electoral strategy? Why have some parties on the right resisted the trend and even ratcheted up their attacks on all LGBTQ+ people? And why have rights and protections for transgender people been comprehensively detached from the political right's embrace of lesbian and gay rights?
{"title":"Why Europe's Right Embraces Gay Rights","authors":"G. Magni, Andrew Reynolds","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Over the last century, there has been a seismic shift in the landscape of LGBTQ+ rights in much of the world—particularly in Western Europe, the Americas, and Australasia. One of the more striking features of this shift has been the embrace of the cause of gay rights and equality by numerous right-of-center political parties in Europe. These right-of-center parties have also been electing gay, lesbian, and bisexual candidates and leaders. Behind this trend seems to be a combination of evolving social values, leadership strategies and choices, and declining religiosity among voters. The evolution of the European right's views on LGBTQ+ rights raises a number of questions: Most important, what has motivated such parties to embrace gay rights—a fundamental change in values, or electoral strategy? Why have some parties on the right resisted the trend and even ratcheted up their attacks on all LGBTQ+ people? And why have rights and protections for transgender people been comprehensively detached from the political right's embrace of lesbian and gay rights?","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"50 - 64"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42932452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:In the past three decades nonviolent social protest has become the most reliable path to democracy. However, not all nonviolent mobilization campaigns succeed. To examine why some nonviolent campaigns are more successful than others, we analyze the use of a particular type of activist campaign tactic, the "dilemma action." The dilemma action is a nonviolent civil-disobedience tactic that provokes a "response dilemma" for the target. Collecting original data on dilemma actions during nonviolent activist campaigns, we find that roughly one-third of mass nonviolent campaigns in the past century deploy this strategy. We theorize four mechanisms linking dilemma actions to nonviolent activist campaign success: facilitating group formation, delegitimizing opponents, reducing fear, and generating sympathetic media coverage. Finally, we assess whether dilemma actions increase campaign success rates, finding that dilemma actions are associated with an increase of 11–16 percent in activist-campaign success.
{"title":"How to Sharpen a Nonviolent Movement","authors":"Sophia A. Mcclennen, S. Popović, Joseph G Wright","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0007","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In the past three decades nonviolent social protest has become the most reliable path to democracy. However, not all nonviolent mobilization campaigns succeed. To examine why some nonviolent campaigns are more successful than others, we analyze the use of a particular type of activist campaign tactic, the \"dilemma action.\" The dilemma action is a nonviolent civil-disobedience tactic that provokes a \"response dilemma\" for the target. Collecting original data on dilemma actions during nonviolent activist campaigns, we find that roughly one-third of mass nonviolent campaigns in the past century deploy this strategy. We theorize four mechanisms linking dilemma actions to nonviolent activist campaign success: facilitating group formation, delegitimizing opponents, reducing fear, and generating sympathetic media coverage. Finally, we assess whether dilemma actions increase campaign success rates, finding that dilemma actions are associated with an increase of 11–16 percent in activist-campaign success.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"110 - 125"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45596366","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Milan W. Svolik, Elena Avramovska, Johanna Lutz, Filip Milačić
Abstract:In order to diagnose Europe's democratic vulnerabilities, we conducted experiments that probe Europeans' ability to recognize and punish politicians who undermine democracy. Across seven countries, we systematically detect two reservoirs of tolerance for authoritarianism: the illiberal right and the disengaged. Citizens in the first group support parties on the extreme, populist, radical, or nationalist right. Citizens in the second group do not vote, but, in several countries, they are dormant supporters of the illiberal right and exhibit just as much lenience toward transgressions against democracy. The root cause of the illiberal right's tolerance for authoritarianism appears to be not in how much it cares about its signature issues, like immigration or traditional values, but in how little it cares about democracy in the first place. Europe's authoritarian potential, both overt and hidden, is located on its electorates' far-right flanks.
{"title":"In Europe, Democracy Erodes from the Right","authors":"Milan W. Svolik, Elena Avramovska, Johanna Lutz, Filip Milačić","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0000","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0000","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In order to diagnose Europe's democratic vulnerabilities, we conducted experiments that probe Europeans' ability to recognize and punish politicians who undermine democracy. Across seven countries, we systematically detect two reservoirs of tolerance for authoritarianism: the illiberal right and the disengaged. Citizens in the first group support parties on the extreme, populist, radical, or nationalist right. Citizens in the second group do not vote, but, in several countries, they are dormant supporters of the illiberal right and exhibit just as much lenience toward transgressions against democracy. The root cause of the illiberal right's tolerance for authoritarianism appears to be not in how much it cares about its signature issues, like immigration or traditional values, but in how little it cares about democracy in the first place. Europe's authoritarian potential, both overt and hidden, is located on its electorates' far-right flanks.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"20 - 5"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44228592","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:This essay analyzes the failure of Vladimir Putin's military in Ukraine in terms of five key factors. The first of these is Putin's monopolization of control over the armed forces, which has driven critical voices and honest debates out of military and defense matters. Second is the failure of reform: Efforts to overhaul the bloated, ill-equipped post-Soviet military have not produced a twenty-first–century fighting force that can match the world's best armies or counter their capabilities. Third, Russia's military has been unable to attract talented young people. Fourth, Russia's mammoth defense industry produces too few weapons, and those it does turn out cannot match sophisticated Western arms. Finally, the operations in Georgia, Crimea, and Syria were conducted against feeble adversaries and said zero about how Russian forces would perform in a conventional land war against a resolute, well-armed enemy. In short, the Russian military is a reflection of the state that created it: Autocratic, security-obsessed, and teeming with hypercentralized decisionmaking, dysfunctional relations between civilian and military authorities, inefficiency, corruption, and brutality.
{"title":"Armies and Autocrats: Why Putin's Military Failed","authors":"Z. Barany","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:This essay analyzes the failure of Vladimir Putin's military in Ukraine in terms of five key factors. The first of these is Putin's monopolization of control over the armed forces, which has driven critical voices and honest debates out of military and defense matters. Second is the failure of reform: Efforts to overhaul the bloated, ill-equipped post-Soviet military have not produced a twenty-first–century fighting force that can match the world's best armies or counter their capabilities. Third, Russia's military has been unable to attract talented young people. Fourth, Russia's mammoth defense industry produces too few weapons, and those it does turn out cannot match sophisticated Western arms. Finally, the operations in Georgia, Crimea, and Syria were conducted against feeble adversaries and said zero about how Russian forces would perform in a conventional land war against a resolute, well-armed enemy. In short, the Russian military is a reflection of the state that created it: Autocratic, security-obsessed, and teeming with hypercentralized decisionmaking, dysfunctional relations between civilian and military authorities, inefficiency, corruption, and brutality.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"80 - 94"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47821574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:On 4 September 2022, Chilean voters resoundingly rejected a progressive new constitution that offered a blueprint for social democracy. Some observers argue that Chile wisely escaped a narrow brush with a brand of authoritarian leftism long dominant in Latin America. This interpretation is simplistic and obscures the wider forces of illiberalism that contributed to the constitution's defeat. With the intrusion of everyday politics into the process, any reboot of the constitutional process will likely lead to a document that offers a much narrower vision of democracy.
{"title":"Chile's Constitutional Chaos","authors":"Jennifer M. Piscopo, Peter M. Siavelis","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:On 4 September 2022, Chilean voters resoundingly rejected a progressive new constitution that offered a blueprint for social democracy. Some observers argue that Chile wisely escaped a narrow brush with a brand of authoritarian leftism long dominant in Latin America. This interpretation is simplistic and obscures the wider forces of illiberalism that contributed to the constitution's defeat. With the intrusion of everyday politics into the process, any reboot of the constitutional process will likely lead to a document that offers a much narrower vision of democracy.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"141 - 155"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45846452","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Italy's new government is more right-wing than any in the country's post-War history. Nevertheless, the coalition is familiar. The same three parties were in government once in the 1990s and twice in this century. The difference is that Giorgia Meloni's postfascist Brothers of Italy is in charge. Meanwhile, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini's Lega have changed under the influence of electoral engineering to divide Italians into "left" and "right." The right has adapted; the left has not. Meloni's governing coalition is disciplined and competent by dint of this experience. The question is how long Italians will support it.
{"title":"Italy's Hard Truths","authors":"Erik Jones","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Italy's new government is more right-wing than any in the country's post-War history. Nevertheless, the coalition is familiar. The same three parties were in government once in the 1990s and twice in this century. The difference is that Giorgia Meloni's postfascist Brothers of Italy is in charge. Meanwhile, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia and Matteo Salvini's Lega have changed under the influence of electoral engineering to divide Italians into \"left\" and \"right.\" The right has adapted; the left has not. Meloni's governing coalition is disciplined and competent by dint of this experience. The question is how long Italians will support it.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"21 - 35"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43869411","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:A highly polarized Brazilian electorate went to the polls in October 2022. Workers' Party candidate and former president (2003–2010) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated far-right incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro, while unprecedented numbers of right-wing candidates won seats for the National Congress as well as governorships across Brazil. Constitutionalism prevailed, defying concerns that the illiberal Bolsonaro would reject an electoral loss and call upon the military to back an antisystem challenge. Although a democratic alternation in power will occur, governance will be difficult. Lula will not enjoy the political and economic conditions that facilitated the successful governance strategies he employed previously.
{"title":"Lula's Second Act","authors":"Wendy Hunter, Timothy J Power","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:A highly polarized Brazilian electorate went to the polls in October 2022. Workers' Party candidate and former president (2003–2010) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated far-right incumbent president Jair Bolsonaro, while unprecedented numbers of right-wing candidates won seats for the National Congress as well as governorships across Brazil. Constitutionalism prevailed, defying concerns that the illiberal Bolsonaro would reject an electoral loss and call upon the military to back an antisystem challenge. Although a democratic alternation in power will occur, governance will be difficult. Lula will not enjoy the political and economic conditions that facilitated the successful governance strategies he employed previously.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"126 - 140"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47425073","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:India's democratic backsliding began with the rise to power of Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2014 elections. Five years later, the party won an even bigger parliamentary majority. The BJP now runs not only the central government, but also all but ten of the 28 states, whether on its own or allied with other parties. Though India has not regressed democratically by the criteria of electoral contestation and participation, it has failed to ensure that the rights of Muslims and other minorities are respected. It has also impaired freedom of expression and freedom of association. Electoral democracy is thus coming into conflict with the broader notion of democracy, electoral as well as nonelectoral, that India's 1950 Constitution enshrines.
{"title":"How India's Ruling Party Erodes Democracy","authors":"A. Varshney","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0050","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:India's democratic backsliding began with the rise to power of Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2014 elections. Five years later, the party won an even bigger parliamentary majority. The BJP now runs not only the central government, but also all but ten of the 28 states, whether on its own or allied with other parties. Though India has not regressed democratically by the criteria of electoral contestation and participation, it has failed to ensure that the rights of Muslims and other minorities are respected. It has also impaired freedom of expression and freedom of association. Electoral democracy is thus coming into conflict with the broader notion of democracy, electoral as well as nonelectoral, that India's 1950 Constitution enshrines.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"104 - 118"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42826102","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:The recent spate of coups and coup attempts—six successful and three failed attempts in the span of twelve months—is not an indication that coup activity will return to the high levels seen during the Cold War. There is no evidence of a contagious wave; what we are seeing is simply the coincidence of already coup-prone countries (mainly in Africa) having coup attempts in the same period. These attempts were also not driven by increased insurgent activity or by western training of these militaries. However, this flurry of coup activity has revealed that post–Cold War norms against coups have eroded and will likely continue to get weaker, making a return to post-Cold war levels of coup activity unlikely.
{"title":"The Myth of the Coup Contagion","authors":"Naunihal Singh","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:The recent spate of coups and coup attempts—six successful and three failed attempts in the span of twelve months—is not an indication that coup activity will return to the high levels seen during the Cold War. There is no evidence of a contagious wave; what we are seeing is simply the coincidence of already coup-prone countries (mainly in Africa) having coup attempts in the same period. These attempts were also not driven by increased insurgent activity or by western training of these militaries. However, this flurry of coup activity has revealed that post–Cold War norms against coups have eroded and will likely continue to get weaker, making a return to post-Cold war levels of coup activity unlikely.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"74 - 88"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43174703","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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