Abstract:State-building goes wrong when local politics is ignored. State-building begins not from anarchy, but from decentralized social order. In democratic state-building, transfers of power to a new national government require popular consent. A democratic state-building mission needs a stabilization-assistance team that can engage with national and local leaders as they negotiate a balanced distribution of power. When the goal is to promote political development, international assistance should be directed by local stabilization officers who can encourage trusted leaders to cooperate in a broad coalition for local governance. An instructive example is USAID's Office of Rural Affairs in Vietnam in 1962–64.
摘要:忽视地方政治，国家建设就会出错。国家建设不是从无政府状态开始，而是从分散的社会秩序开始。在民主的国家建设中，权力向新的国家政府转移需要民众的同意。一个民主的国家建设任务需要一个稳定援助小组，在国家和地方领导人就权力均衡分配进行谈判时，这个小组可以与他们接触。当目标是促进政治发展时，国际援助应由地方稳定官员指导，他们可以鼓励值得信赖的领导人在广泛的联盟中进行合作，以促进地方治理。美国国际开发署(USAID) 1962年至1964年在越南设立的农村事务办公室(Office of Rural Affairs)就是一个很好的例子。
{"title":"Local Politics and Democratic State-Building","authors":"R. Myerson","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:State-building goes wrong when local politics is ignored. State-building begins not from anarchy, but from decentralized social order. In democratic state-building, transfers of power to a new national government require popular consent. A democratic state-building mission needs a stabilization-assistance team that can engage with national and local leaders as they negotiate a balanced distribution of power. When the goal is to promote political development, international assistance should be directed by local stabilization officers who can encourage trusted leaders to cooperate in a broad coalition for local governance. An instructive example is USAID's Office of Rural Affairs in Vietnam in 1962–64.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"62 - 73"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42399594","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:The respondents to our essay generally agree with us about the endurance of wealthy democracies, but they pose three chief objections: 1) the results reported may be unreliable because our study failed to distinguish breakdowns of less impact from categorical shifts in which autocracy displaces democracy, 2) claims of recent democratic survival are premature because the erosive effects of democratic backsliding are gathering beneath the surface, and 3) even if democratic breakdown remains unlikely in economically developed states, we underestimated the threat that backsliding itself poses to human rights. These points do not shake the essay's basic conclusions, but they prompted valuable extensions. The challenge ahead is to protect democracies genuinely in peril, while not losing valuable time and resources chasing authoritarian ghosts.
{"title":"A Quiet Consensus","authors":"Jason Brownlee, Kenny Miao","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0057","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0057","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:The respondents to our essay generally agree with us about the endurance of wealthy democracies, but they pose three chief objections: 1) the results reported may be unreliable because our study failed to distinguish breakdowns of less impact from categorical shifts in which autocracy displaces democracy, 2) claims of recent democratic survival are premature because the erosive effects of democratic backsliding are gathering beneath the surface, and 3) even if democratic breakdown remains unlikely in economically developed states, we underestimated the threat that backsliding itself poses to human rights. These points do not shake the essay's basic conclusions, but they prompted valuable extensions. The challenge ahead is to protect democracies genuinely in peril, while not losing valuable time and resources chasing authoritarian ghosts.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"169 - 175"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41518731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Oppositions in electoral authoritarian regimes often boycott sham elections. Yet unfair elections can be game-changing. This article shows how the opposition contested the 9 August 2020 presidential election in Belarus to mobilize a large-scale grassroots prodemocracy movement by: 1) presenting a credible alternative to the regime and unifying efforts, 2) drawing on citizen-led initiatives—including an innovative artificial-intelligence parallel vote-tabulation system—to expose the extent of electoral manipulation, build solidarity, and engender belief in the possibility of change, 3) involving citizens at every stage of the electoral process to credibly demonstrate support for the opposition, and 4) wielding the regime's electoral law against it to publicize electoral violations. The election transformed Belarus's once-apathetic populace into active citizens and created conditions for future change, despite mass state-sanctioned violence.
{"title":"How to Compete in Unfair Elections","authors":"Alyena Batura","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Oppositions in electoral authoritarian regimes often boycott sham elections. Yet unfair elections can be game-changing. This article shows how the opposition contested the 9 August 2020 presidential election in Belarus to mobilize a large-scale grassroots prodemocracy movement by: 1) presenting a credible alternative to the regime and unifying efforts, 2) drawing on citizen-led initiatives—including an innovative artificial-intelligence parallel vote-tabulation system—to expose the extent of electoral manipulation, build solidarity, and engender belief in the possibility of change, 3) involving citizens at every stage of the electoral process to credibly demonstrate support for the opposition, and 4) wielding the regime's electoral law against it to publicize electoral violations. The election transformed Belarus's once-apathetic populace into active citizens and created conditions for future change, despite mass state-sanctioned violence.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"47 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41323794","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:How much should we worry about democracy in the world today? Building on Brownlee and Miao's useful interjection that rich democracies (still) don't die, this essay offers some alternative ways to approach the threat faced by wealthy democracies, in addition to the critical role of the macroeconomic structural factors that they highlight. The essay advocates for more attention to the possibility that democracy can weaken in consequential ways short of death, how leaders damage institutions without destroying them, and the crucial role that citizens can play in replenishing democratic resilience.
{"title":"Follow the Leader","authors":"Susan D. Hyde, E. Saunders","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0056","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:How much should we worry about democracy in the world today? Building on Brownlee and Miao's useful interjection that rich democracies (still) don't die, this essay offers some alternative ways to approach the threat faced by wealthy democracies, in addition to the critical role of the macroeconomic structural factors that they highlight. The essay advocates for more attention to the possibility that democracy can weaken in consequential ways short of death, how leaders damage institutions without destroying them, and the crucial role that citizens can play in replenishing democratic resilience.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"164 - 168"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47343512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:In recent years, Latin America has experienced an abortion-rights breakthrough that stands in striking contrast to the wave of criminalization of abortion afoot in the United States. It also ended some of the world's most draconian abortion bans. At the root of this breakthrough is the framing of abortion not as an issue of personal choice but as a human-rights matter. This strategy, borrowed from previous campaigns for equality and justice in Latin America—especially the struggle for same-sex marriage—capitalized on the resonance of human rights in Latin American politics and society in the postauthoritarian era.
{"title":"Latin America's Abortion Rights Breakthrough","authors":"Omar G Encarnación","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In recent years, Latin America has experienced an abortion-rights breakthrough that stands in striking contrast to the wave of criminalization of abortion afoot in the United States. It also ended some of the world's most draconian abortion bans. At the root of this breakthrough is the framing of abortion not as an issue of personal choice but as a human-rights matter. This strategy, borrowed from previous campaigns for equality and justice in Latin America—especially the struggle for same-sex marriage—capitalized on the resonance of human rights in Latin American politics and society in the postauthoritarian era.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"103 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43261060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Jason Brownlee and Kenny Miao deftly question widespread views about the connections between democratic backsliding, democratic breakdown, and a global wave of autocratization. This brief response highlights the practical political questions that emerge from their findings and from the structural arguments they use to justify their relatively positive forecasts. The questions involve: backsliding's breadth, location, and assessment; backsliding's connections with the military; how recent changes in capitalism and party competition affect democratic resilience and, most important, why democracy's defenders succeed or fail. Tracing and naming trends is useful, but the comparative study of how individual countries resist or reverse backsliding is essential.
{"title":"Questioning Backsliding","authors":"N. Bermeo","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0054","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Jason Brownlee and Kenny Miao deftly question widespread views about the connections between democratic backsliding, democratic breakdown, and a global wave of autocratization. This brief response highlights the practical political questions that emerge from their findings and from the structural arguments they use to justify their relatively positive forecasts. The questions involve: backsliding's breadth, location, and assessment; backsliding's connections with the military; how recent changes in capitalism and party competition affect democratic resilience and, most important, why democracy's defenders succeed or fail. Tracing and naming trends is useful, but the comparative study of how individual countries resist or reverse backsliding is essential.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"155 - 159"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42355129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Mandarin in the Machine","authors":"W. J. Dobson","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0058","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0058","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"176 - 180"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43880271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Authoritarian regimes have been waging an active assault on democracy for quite some time, and the effects of this battering are now clearly visible. Authorities in countries from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe have launched massive crackdowns, often with impunity. Meanwhile, free societies' misguided assumptions about the inevitable triumph of liberal democracy have only worsened the authoritarian challenge. In the wake of the Cold War, Western democracies largely put aside their own inherent competitive advantage—the principles of democratic accountability and transparency. By turning a blind eye to the authoritarians' corrupt practices, succumbing to self-censorship, or otherwise letting the authoritarians set the terms of engagement, democracies and their key institutions ceded much ground. And while a handful of democracies have responded effectively to this corrosive form of authoritarian influence, most societies are dangerously underequipped. New strategies are urgently needed to combat this insidious form of sharp power.
{"title":"Rising to the Sharp Power Challenge","authors":"Christopher Walker","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0051","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Authoritarian regimes have been waging an active assault on democracy for quite some time, and the effects of this battering are now clearly visible. Authorities in countries from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe have launched massive crackdowns, often with impunity. Meanwhile, free societies' misguided assumptions about the inevitable triumph of liberal democracy have only worsened the authoritarian challenge. In the wake of the Cold War, Western democracies largely put aside their own inherent competitive advantage—the principles of democratic accountability and transparency. By turning a blind eye to the authoritarians' corrupt practices, succumbing to self-censorship, or otherwise letting the authoritarians set the terms of engagement, democracies and their key institutions ceded much ground. And while a handful of democracies have responded effectively to this corrosive form of authoritarian influence, most societies are dangerously underequipped. New strategies are urgently needed to combat this insidious form of sharp power.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"119 - 132"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41825006","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Scholars who are willing to argue against doom-mongering on the basis of serious evidence and a subtle counternarrative can make a big contribution to political science and the larger public discourse. Sadly, this is not what Jason Brownlee and Kenny Miao offer in "Why Democracies Survive." Instead of joining a grasp of the sources of democratic resilience with a serious examination of current trends in backsliding, they try to revive a consensus that has been long dead for good reason. In prematurely declaring Hungary and the United States examples of "survival preceded by backsliding," they dismiss concerns about the rise of authoritarian populists as "evidence-resistant 'tyrannophobia.'" The events of recent years make it painfully clear that it is naïve to assume that countries such as the United States are virtually certain to remain democracies.
{"title":"The Danger is Real","authors":"Yascha Mounk","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Scholars who are willing to argue against doom-mongering on the basis of serious evidence and a subtle counternarrative can make a big contribution to political science and the larger public discourse. Sadly, this is not what Jason Brownlee and Kenny Miao offer in \"Why Democracies Survive.\" Instead of joining a grasp of the sources of democratic resilience with a serious examination of current trends in backsliding, they try to revive a consensus that has been long dead for good reason. In prematurely declaring Hungary and the United States examples of \"survival preceded by backsliding,\" they dismiss concerns about the rise of authoritarian populists as \"evidence-resistant 'tyrannophobia.'\" The events of recent years make it painfully clear that it is naïve to assume that countries such as the United States are virtually certain to remain democracies.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"150 - 154"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46935138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract:Experts worry that de facto single-person regimes in previous multiparty states (Russia, Turkey, Venezuela) and norm-defiance in existing democracies (Brazil, Hungary, the United States) signal a coming authoritarian age. Without examining the broader record, however, it is hard to know whether such tremors presage a global convulsion. A century's worth of evidence (1920–2019) shows that contemporary democracies are sturdier than they look. Above all, high levels of economic development continue to sustain multipartism; OECD democracies have faced less risk than often intimated. Further, competition among political parties, regardless of national affluence, contains a momentum that even the most willful demagogues have had trouble stopping. These economic and institutional bulwarks help explain why democratic backsliding, which seems so portentous, has preceded democratic survival more often than breakdown. Even as executive aggrandizement and rancorous partisanship roil the world's most venerable democracies, they are unlikely to produce new autocracies absent permissive material conditions.
{"title":"Why Democracies Survive","authors":"Jason Brownlee, Kenny Miao","doi":"10.1353/jod.2022.0052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2022.0052","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Experts worry that de facto single-person regimes in previous multiparty states (Russia, Turkey, Venezuela) and norm-defiance in existing democracies (Brazil, Hungary, the United States) signal a coming authoritarian age. Without examining the broader record, however, it is hard to know whether such tremors presage a global convulsion. A century's worth of evidence (1920–2019) shows that contemporary democracies are sturdier than they look. Above all, high levels of economic development continue to sustain multipartism; OECD democracies have faced less risk than often intimated. Further, competition among political parties, regardless of national affluence, contains a momentum that even the most willful demagogues have had trouble stopping. These economic and institutional bulwarks help explain why democratic backsliding, which seems so portentous, has preceded democratic survival more often than breakdown. Even as executive aggrandizement and rancorous partisanship roil the world's most venerable democracies, they are unlikely to produce new autocracies absent permissive material conditions.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"33 1","pages":"133 - 149"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2022-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42385959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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