Futures最新文献_第8页

Regimes of futurity: Progress, catastrophe, and historicity in the Anthropocene 未来的政权：人类世的进步、灾难和历史性

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103682

Martin Savransky

The (question of the) future is not what it used to be. In an age of irreversible planetary instability, what was once a source of hope and aspiration, and a problem of anticipation, imagination and the fabrication of alternatives, has become precarious, a source of fear and dread, and a problem of finitude, catastrophe, and adaptation. What becomes of the idea of the future on an earth rendered forever unstable and unsafe? This, the article argues, is the key question of a transdisciplinary futures studies in the Anthropocene. At a time when planetary upheavals throw its guiding idea of “alternative futures” into disarray, the task is not, however, to hang on to the fundamental openness of the future as an article of faith. The task is to reckon with the historical nature of the (open) future in the first place, critically interrogating the future’s (and futures studies’) own historicity and modern conditions of emergence in order to devise ways of attending to emerging and historically shifting relations to the future in the planetary present. Bringing recent debates on the crisis of futurity in futures studies and scholarship on historical futures into a conversation about the shifting historicity of the future in the Anthropocene, this article proffers the notion of “regimes of futurity” as an organising heuristic to reassess the stakes and reimagine the task of a future futures studies.

未来的问题不是过去的问题了。在一个不可逆转的地球不稳定的时代，曾经是希望和抱负的源泉，是期待、想象和制造替代方案的问题，已经变得不稳定，是恐惧和恐惧的来源，是有限、灾难和适应的问题。在一个永远不稳定和不安全的地球上，未来的想法变成了什么？本文认为，这是未来人类世跨学科研究的关键问题。然而，当地球的剧变使其“另类未来”的指导思想陷入混乱时，我们的任务不是把未来的基本开放性作为一种信仰来坚持下去。我们的任务是首先考虑到（开放的）未来的历史本质，批判性地质疑未来（以及未来研究）自身的历史性和现代出现条件，以便设计出在当前地球上关注新兴和历史变化与未来的关系的方法。将最近关于未来研究中的未来危机和历史未来学术的辩论带入到关于人类世未来历史性变化的对话中，本文提供了“未来制度”的概念，作为重新评估风险和重新设想未来未来研究任务的组织启发式。

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引用次数: 0

The interaction between justice and anticipation: Four mechanisms of reproducing injustice 正义与期待的互动：不公再生产的四种机制

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103674

Sietske Veenman, Maria Kaufmann

There is a growing recognition and demand that sustainability transformations should be ‘just’, as visible in European Union policy or the United Nations (UN). Therefore, it is essential to understand and build links between futures and justice discourses. Hence, the aim of this SI is to document empirically and conceptually the way justice discourses and futures bear on societal transformations, putting at its center their interplay. Contributions were invited to investigate the role of future thinking in unpacking sustainability transformations, dealing with questions such as: What is the effect of this interaction of discourses at different levels, like daily practices, procedures, on institutions and/or on policy? How are futures strategically used to legitimize particular justice discourses and vice versa? We identify four underlying mechanisms that help explain how existing injustices are reproduced in societal transformations through the interaction between futures and justice discourses: (1) presentification; (2) utopian dismissal; (3) tangible future bias; and (4) anticipatory justification. By examining the connection in literature and underlying mechanisms, the notion of ‘futures justice’ emerges to be essential to reducing injustices: integrating epistemological perspectives in thinking about futures into the processes of societal transformations.

越来越多的人认识到并要求可持续转型应该是“公正的”，这在欧盟政策或联合国（UN）中可见。因此，理解和建立未来与正义话语之间的联系至关重要。因此，本SI的目的是从经验和概念上记录正义话语和未来对社会变革的影响，并将其置于相互作用的中心。会议邀请与会者探讨未来思考在可持续发展转型中所扮演的角色，并探讨以下问题：日常实践、程序、制度和/或政策等不同层面的话语相互作用的影响是什么？期货是如何在战略上被用来使特定的正义话语合法化的，反之亦然？我们确定了四个潜在的机制，这些机制有助于解释现有的不公正如何通过未来和正义话语之间的相互作用在社会转型中再现：(1)呈现；(2)乌托邦式的摒弃；(3)有形未来偏差；(4)预期正当性。通过研究文献中的联系和潜在机制，“未来正义”的概念对减少不公正至关重要：将思考未来的认识论观点整合到社会转型过程中。

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引用次数: 0

Setting the scene for discussing innovation policy directions: Foresight as a practice of synchronizing 为讨论创新政策方向设置场景：作为同步实践的预见

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103681

Max Priebe , Philine Warnke , K. Matthias Weber

Researchers and policy analysts often highlight the role of anticipatory practices in technology development and innovation governance. In this study, we extend this argument by examining foresight practices within the context of initiating deliberations concerning the directionality of innovation policy. Drawing on practice theories and anticipatory practice research, we develop a conceptual lens to scrutinize foresight. The lens is applied to study the case of a large policy-oriented foresight scheme, Foresight on Demand, which supported the operationalization of Horizon Europe, the Ninth European Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development. This case study provides insight into the workings of anticipatory practices during the nascent stages of innovation policy processes, when problems, solutions and stakeholders' interests have yet to be fully defined. The study describes how foresight mobilizes actors at the intersection between innovation, policy and society through engaging them with anticipatory practices. We conclude that foresight hereby synchronizes disparate bodies of knowledge, collective expectations and temporal demands, thus ‘setting-the-scene’ for arenas in which actors can, in spite of functional differentiation, get together and discuss innovation policy directions. The research findings outline possible implications for function, utilization and evaluation of foresight.

研究人员和政策分析人员经常强调预期实践在技术发展和创新治理中的作用。在本研究中，我们通过在启动有关创新政策方向性的审议的背景下检查预见实践来扩展这一论点。在实践理论和预见性实践研究的基础上，我们发展了一个概念性的视角来审视预见性。这一视角被用于研究大型政策导向的预见计划——按需预见计划——的案例，该计划支持了欧洲地平线（第九个欧洲研究和技术发展框架方案）的实施。本案例研究提供了在创新政策过程的初期阶段，当问题、解决方案和利益相关者的利益尚未完全确定时，预期实践的运作情况。该研究描述了前瞻性如何通过让参与者参与前瞻性实践，在创新、政策和社会的交叉点调动参与者。我们得出的结论是，前瞻性在此将不同的知识主体、集体期望和时间需求同步起来，从而为行动者能够（尽管存在功能差异）聚集在一起讨论创新政策方向的领域“设置场景”。研究结果概述了前瞻性的功能、利用和评价的可能意义。

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引用次数: 0

Talking about my future city: Engaging young voices through persona-based participation 谈论我的未来城市：通过个人参与吸引年轻人的声音

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103680

Romina Rodela , Oldouz Nejadi , Erik Falk

Questions about who is included and excluded from spatial planning are shaping current debates about urban environments, including future-oriented inquiries about whose needs future cities will best serve. The role of children and youth in discussing and shaping urban futures is crucial, as these groups will inhabit the cities currently under development. In this paper, we report on an activity meant to explore novel ways in which young people can be engaged in debates about urban futures. This exploration comes at a time when changes in the Swedish national planning framework have taken place and youth has been recognized as a group in need to be involved in participatory spatial planning. We present findings from an activity where personas - fictional characters - were employed to involve a group of young individuals in discussions and co-creation of developments concerning the future of their living environments in the South of Stockholm. Our results suggest that personas serve as valuable elicitation tools for capturing diverse viewpoints and bridging abstract planning concepts with the lived experiences of young individuals.

关于谁被纳入和排除在空间规划之外的问题正在影响当前关于城市环境的辩论，包括面向未来的关于未来城市最能满足谁的需求的询问。儿童和青年在讨论和塑造城市未来方面的作用至关重要，因为这些群体将居住在目前正在开发的城市中。在本文中，我们报道了一项旨在探索年轻人参与城市未来辩论的新方式的活动。这一探索是在瑞典国家规划框架发生变化的时候进行的，青年被认为是一个需要参与参与式空间规划的群体。我们展示了一项活动的研究结果，在该活动中，我们采用了虚构的人物角色，让一群年轻人参与讨论和共同创造关于斯德哥尔摩南部他们未来生活环境的发展。我们的研究结果表明，人物角色作为一种有价值的启发工具，可以捕捉不同的观点，并将抽象的规划概念与年轻人的生活经验联系起来。

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引用次数: 0

Planning and the unthinkable: Inertia, imagination and climate change along the Upper Adriatic coast 规划和不可想象：惯性，想象力和气候变化沿上亚得里亚海海岸

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103678

Ludovico Centis , Alvise Pagnacco, Federico Vascotto

The paper addresses the study of coastal futures through the combination of scenario planning, cartographic visualization, and real estate valuation. When addressing and reflecting on the territorial impacts of climate change at the global scale, the real estate sector plays an inertial role in different contexts, and in particular in coastal ones most exposed to rising seas, as the Upper Adriatic area between the Gulf of Trieste and the Venice Lagoon. It is becoming increasingly clear that the reflection and possible gradual planning and programming by public bodies of a controlled retreat from these areas in view of the predicted rising seas finds an obstacle not only in the protection of areas and sites of inestimable cultural and naturalistic value, but also of real estate assets. The paper reports the development of a methodological framework that –through the integration of parcel-level real estate data, hydrological risk scenarios, and typologies of spatial vulnerability– could act as reference and trigger for public agencies, planners, or climate adaptation practitioners in programs of awareness-raising or exploratory modelling. Starting from the visualization of the plausible effects of flooding and sea level rise in the coming decades and reflecting on a possible scenario for the Upper Adriatic coastal area in 100 years from now, the paper engages with a potential epochal shift in the way of structuring and inhabiting this territory, considering not only timely issues as climate action and climate justice, but foreseeing a transition that takes into account also a strategic dimension as the economic one.

本文通过情景规划、地图可视化和房地产估值相结合的方法来研究沿海期货。当在全球范围内解决和反思气候变化对领土的影响时，房地产行业在不同的背景下发挥着惯性作用，特别是在最容易受到海平面上升影响的沿海地区，如的里雅斯特湾和威尼斯泻湖之间的上亚得里亚海地区。越来越明显的是，考虑到预计的海平面上升，公共机构对这些地区进行有控制的撤退的反思和可能的逐步规划和规划，不仅在保护具有不可估量的文化和自然价值的地区和遗址方面遇到了障碍，而且在房地产资产方面也遇到了障碍。本文报告了一个方法框架的发展，该框架通过整合地块级房地产数据、水文风险情景和空间脆弱性类型，可以作为公共机构、规划者或气候适应从业者在提高认识或探索性建模方案中的参考和触发器。从未来几十年洪水和海平面上升的可能影响的可视化开始，并反思100年后上亚得里亚海沿海地区的可能情景，本文涉及该地区结构和居住方式的潜在划时代转变，不仅考虑了气候行动和气候正义等及时问题，而且预测了一种过渡，同时考虑了经济方面的战略层面。

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引用次数: 0

Shaping circular futures: The role of future-making practices in the transition to circular food systems 塑造循环未来：面向未来的实践在向循环粮食系统过渡中的作用

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103679

Laura Schütz de Rivera , Hannah H.E. van Zanten , Anita Frehner , Adrian Muller , Olivier Ejderyan , Vivian Valencia , Jessica Duncan

Visions of circular food systems have become increasingly central to debates about sustainability, guiding strategies to reduce waste and regenerate resources. Among the at times conflicting visions that diverge in values and priorities, the transition toward circular food systems remains uncertain. We examine how everyday future-making practices reconfigure relations with waste and shape circular transitions in Switzerland. Drawing on Social Practice Theory and the concept of transformativity, we analyze how actors perform practices that reshape how waste is encountered, valued, and integrated into circular material flows in everyday life. Based on qualitative fieldwork conducted in 2023 with four cases from the Swiss food system including fertilizer production from urine, urban aquaponics, food waste redistribution, and biodynamic CSA farming, we show how different practices render alternative waste values tangible and engage people in circular futures-in-the-making through habitual, planned, and experimental modes of practices. In doing so, we highlight the everyday as a key site where contested circularity visions are negotiated, adapted, and implemented.

循环粮食系统的愿景日益成为可持续性辩论的核心，指导减少浪费和再生资源的战略。在价值观和优先事项不同、有时相互冲突的愿景中，向循环粮食系统的过渡仍然不确定。我们研究了日常的未来实践如何重新配置与废物的关系，并在瑞士形成循环过渡。利用社会实践理论和变革的概念，我们分析了参与者如何进行实践，重塑日常生活中如何遇到、重视和融入循环物质流的废物。基于在2023年进行的定性实地调查，包括瑞士食品系统的四个案例，包括从尿液中生产肥料、城市鱼菜共生、食物垃圾再分配和生物动力CSA农业，我们展示了不同的实践如何使替代废物价值具体化，并通过习惯、计划和实验模式让人们参与到循环未来中。在这样做的过程中，我们强调日常生活是一个关键的场所，在这里有争议的循环愿景被协商、适应和实施。

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引用次数: 0

Editorial: Reflections on post-normal science and ethics 社论：对后常态科学与伦理的反思

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103675

Tom Børsen , Gaston Meskens

This special issue on Post-normal Science and Ethics brings together a collection of theoretical and practice-oriented contributions that explore the ethical dimensions of science in post-normal times. Rooted in reflections presented at a virtual symposium in 2020 and a subsequent in-person gathering in Barcelona in 2021, the issue interrogates how ethics underpins post-normal science (PNS), particularly when addressing complex, uncertain, and high-stakes societal challenges. With contributions from senior scholars and emerging voices, the volume offers both foundational perspectives and case-based insights into how extended peer communities, epistemic justice, and the TRUST ethos shape responsible knowledge-making. In addition to theoretical deep dives into ethical aspects and values of PNS, the issue includes applied studies ranging from sustainability workshops to participatory ethics dialogues and educational innovations. Rather than presenting a unified doctrine, these ten papers collectively offer plural reflections on the evolving role of science in governance, advocating for a more inclusive, reflexive, and ethically committed approach to science-policy interfaces. Together, they suggest that ethics is not a peripheral concern but a core element in the pursuit of quality and legitimacy in science for post-normal times.

本期《后常态科学与伦理》特刊汇集了一系列理论和实践方面的贡献，探讨了后常态时代科学的伦理维度。根据2020年虚拟研讨会和随后2021年巴塞罗那面对面会议上提出的思考，该问题质疑伦理如何支撑后常态科学（PNS），特别是在应对复杂、不确定和高风险的社会挑战时。随着资深学者和新兴声音的贡献，该卷提供了基础观点和基于案例的见解如何扩展同行社区，认识正义和信任精神塑造负责任的知识制作。除了从理论上深入探讨PNS的伦理方面和价值外，该问题还包括从可持续性研讨会到参与性伦理对话和教育创新等应用研究。这十篇论文并没有提出统一的理论，而是对科学在治理中不断发展的作用进行了多重反思，倡导采用一种更具包容性、反思性和道德承诺的方法来处理科学-政策界面。总之，它们表明，在后常态时代，伦理不是一个次要问题，而是追求科学质量和合法性的核心要素。

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引用次数: 0

Principles for building a culture of organizational foresight 建立组织远见文化的原则

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103673

Jason Jabbour , Nicolas A. Balcom Raleigh , Anne-Sophie Stevance , James Waddell , Andrea Hinwood

There is growing interest in developing foresight cultures within international organizations. This reflection on the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) approach focuses on a critical 18-month chapter of an ongoing initiative called the Foresight Trajectory. It begins with the premise that organizations are complex adaptive systems, foresight is driven by its potential value, and anticipation is a social phenomenon. The paper proposes principles for cultivating a culture of organizational foresight based on a methodological reflection of the UNEP Foresight Trajectory. This process applied three sets of Reflection Questions across six project phases, generating key insights that inform principles for cultivating foresight within the organization. The questions addressed contexts, relevance perceptions, and modes of anticipation. Three main insights emerged: the foresight process was dynamic and adaptive; the process itself was meaningful to stakeholders as a driver of foresight culture formation; and UNEP, along with other international entities, is uniquely positioned to convene multi-perspective and global foresight processes. Based on these insights, seven Foresight Principles are proposed to guide UNEP and other international entities in engaging stakeholders in foresight to explore new ideas, prepare for uncertainty, build a foresight community, stay flexible and reflexive, communicate openly while respecting stakeholder needs, and foster diverse perspectives to spark immediate thinking and action. This reflection aims to contribute to the development of a foresight culture at UNEP and offer useful insights for other UN entities and beyond.

在国际组织内部发展远见文化的兴趣日益浓厚。本文对联合国环境规划署（UNEP）方法的反思侧重于一项名为“远见轨迹”（Foresight Trajectory）的持续倡议中为期18个月的关键章节。它的前提是组织是复杂的适应性系统，预见是由其潜在价值驱动的，预期是一种社会现象。本文在对环境署远见轨迹进行方法学反思的基础上，提出了培养组织远见文化的原则。这个过程在六个项目阶段中应用了三组反思问题，产生了重要的见解，这些见解为培养组织内的远见提供了原则。这些问题涉及情境、关联感知和预期模式。主要有三个见解：预见过程是动态的和适应性的；作为前瞻文化形成的驱动因素，该过程本身对利益相关者有意义；环境署与其他国际实体一起，在召集多视角和全球远见进程方面具有独特的地位。基于这些见解，提出了七项前瞻原则，以指导环境署和其他国际实体让利益攸关方参与前瞻，探索新思路，为不确定性做好准备，建立一个前瞻社区，保持灵活性和反思性，在尊重利益攸关方需求的同时公开沟通，并培养多样化的观点，以激发立即的思考和行动。这一反思旨在促进环境署远见文化的发展，并为其他联合国实体和其他机构提供有用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Futures of Deepfake and society: Myths, metaphors, and future implications for a trustworthy digital future 《Deepfake与社会的未来：神话、隐喻和对可信赖的数字未来的未来影响

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-07-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103672

Abdul Wahab

The revolutionizing journey of technology has traveled so far from simple Artificial intelligence to advanced Machine learning using deep learning algorithms. These algorithms generate high-level realistic content, either audio or video, that is indistinguishable from human cognition, known as Deepfake. Deepfake technology jeopardized the quality of information and trust in society. Therefore, this study aims to explore and uncover the hidden myths, metaphors, worldviews, and societal systematic causes of deepfake technology and identify the potential risk reduction strategies from a strategic foresight perspective using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA). This was achieved by the qualitative review of statistical data conducted at the mass level and case studies related to the current and future implications of deepfake across various societal domains. Our findings reveal that Deepfake technology erodes trust in digital media, causing suicides due to psychological distress while presenting risks and opportunities. Based on CLA outcomes, future recommendations are formulated to minimize deepfake creation and the victimization process. Also, increased awareness, regulation, and education are essential to mitigate its negative impacts and harness its benefits. However, the technology also presents opportunities for positive applications in education and entertainment. The results underscore the need for enhanced media literacy and regulatory frameworks to address the challenges posed by deepfakes while harnessing their potential benefits. Potential Future research should focus on developing effective detection methods and public awareness campaigns.

技术的革命之旅已经从简单的人工智能发展到使用深度学习算法的高级机器学习。这些算法生成高级逼真的内容，无论是音频还是视频，与人类的认知没有区别，被称为Deepfake。深度造假技术危害了信息质量和社会信任。因此，本研究旨在探索和揭示深度伪造技术隐藏的神话、隐喻、世界观和社会系统原因，并利用因果分层分析（Causal Layered Analysis， CLA）从战略远见的角度确定潜在的风险降低策略。这是通过对大规模统计数据的定性审查以及与deepfake在各个社会领域的当前和未来影响相关的案例研究实现的。我们的研究结果表明，深度造假技术侵蚀了人们对数字媒体的信任，在带来风险和机遇的同时，也会导致心理困扰导致自杀。根据CLA的结果，制定了未来的建议，以尽量减少深度伪造和受害过程。此外，提高意识、监管和教育对于减轻其负面影响和利用其好处至关重要。然而，这项技术也为教育和娱乐领域的积极应用提供了机会。研究结果强调，需要加强媒体素养和监管框架，以应对深度造假带来的挑战，同时利用其潜在好处。未来的研究应侧重于发展有效的检测方法和提高公众认识的运动。

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引用次数: 0

A systematic literature review furthering the participatory futures and governance debate to capacities 一项系统的文献综述，将参与性未来和治理辩论推向能力

IF 3.8 3区管理学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Futures

Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2025.103670

Sai Varsha Akavarapu

Over the past two decades, participatory futures practices have become integral to urban futures studies. While the design, method, and approach of participatory futures processes have been gaining traction, there is a growing recognition that the success of such initiatives hinges on the capacities of local organizations and actors responsible for designing, driving, and governing these discourses. Positioned at the intersection of capacities, participation, and futures governance, this study explores three key questions: How are the capacities required to guide participatory futures conceptualized in the urban context? and what are they? How are the capacities intertwined with the governance of participatory futures? and moreover, whose capacities exert the most significant influence in shaping participatory futures practices? Through a systematic literature review of 43 studies, this research identified four distinct perspectives that further the participatory futures and governance debate to capacities: (1) the institutionalist perspective emphasizes the prescriptive role of structures in facilitating participatory futuring; (2) the organizational perspective highlights the role of system dynamics and participatory cultures within organizations as determinants of effective participatory futuring; (3) the transformative perspective centers on individual actors actions, specifically on their capacity to break away from unsustainable practices in shaping transformative participatory futures; (4) the participatory futures practice-oriented perspective focuses on methods, vision, duration and citizen input integration in participatory futures processes, emphasizing upon reflexivity in methodological aspects of these exercises. Findings reveal that while existing research increasingly prioritizes innovation in participatory methods and approaches, a critical gap remains in examining the capacities that enable immersive and transformative participatory futures processes. A capacity-driven approach to participatory futures practices focused on deliberative citizen empowerment is the need of the hour to advance the co-production of sustainable futures.

在过去的二十年中，参与式期货实践已经成为城市期货研究不可或缺的一部分。虽然参与式未来进程的设计、方法和途径已经获得了牵引力，但人们越来越认识到，这些倡议的成功取决于负责设计、推动和管理这些话语的地方组织和行动者的能力。本研究定位于能力、参与和未来治理的交叉点，探讨了三个关键问题：如何在城市背景下指导参与式未来的概念？它们是什么呢？这些能力是如何与参与性未来的治理交织在一起的？此外，谁的能力在塑造参与式未来实践方面发挥着最重要的影响？通过对43项研究的系统文献回顾，本研究确定了四种不同的观点，将参与性未来和治理辩论进一步推进到能力：(1)制度主义观点强调结构在促进参与性未来中的规范性作用；(2)组织视角强调了组织内系统动力学和参与性文化作为有效参与性未来决定因素的作用；(3)变革视角关注个体行动者的行动，特别是他们在塑造变革参与性未来方面摆脱不可持续做法的能力；(4)参与式期货实践导向视角关注参与式期货过程的方法、愿景、持续时间和公民输入整合，强调这些实践在方法方面的反身性。调查结果显示，虽然现有研究越来越重视参与性方法和方法的创新，但在审查实现沉浸式和变革性参与性未来进程的能力方面仍然存在重大差距。以能力为导向的参与性未来实践侧重于公民协商赋权，是推动共同生产可持续未来的迫切需要。

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引用次数: 0