Pub Date : 2025-09-08DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102558
Peinan Ji , Linke Guo , Lianchao Yu , Xiangbin Yan
In the context of the continuous integration and development of new-generation information technology (IT) and various industries, it is particularly important to pay attention to how the IT-affected income gap between urban and rural residents changes to affect the common wealth. This study conducts an empirical study based on 310 balanced panel data of inter-provincial China from 2012 to 2022 to investigate the specific impact mechanism of the increase in regional IT penetration on income disparity. The study finds that: 1) increased regional IT penetration widens the urban-rural and regional income gaps; 2) increased regional IT penetration widens the urban-rural and regional income gaps through the use of digital inclusive finance and deepening the digital divide, respectively. This study concludes that the government should improve the infrastructure of digital technology in rural areas as soon as possible, give full play to the inclusive and convenient role of digital inclusive finance, alleviate the digital divide between urban and rural areas, and reduce the ‘Matthew effect’, to facilitate sustainable development.
{"title":"Pathway to prosperity or disparity?: The impact of regional IT penetration on common wealth","authors":"Peinan Ji , Linke Guo , Lianchao Yu , Xiangbin Yan","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102558","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102558","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of the continuous integration and development of new-generation information technology (IT) and various industries, it is particularly important to pay attention to how the IT-affected income gap between urban and rural residents changes to affect the common wealth. This study conducts an empirical study based on 310 balanced panel data of inter-provincial China from 2012 to 2022 to investigate the specific impact mechanism of the increase in regional IT penetration on income disparity. The study finds that: 1) increased regional IT penetration widens the urban-rural and regional income gaps; 2) increased regional IT penetration widens the urban-rural and regional income gaps through the use of digital inclusive finance and deepening the digital divide, respectively. This study concludes that the government should improve the infrastructure of digital technology in rural areas as soon as possible, give full play to the inclusive and convenient role of digital inclusive finance, alleviate the digital divide between urban and rural areas, and reduce the ‘Matthew effect’, to facilitate sustainable development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102558"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-05DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102543
Hui Jiang , Yu Liu , Junqi Dong
Governments are major purchasers of goods and services globally. Although previous research highlights the role of government procurement in shaping business activities, the spillover effects on peer firms' innovation efficiency remain unexplored. Through a textual analysis that distinguishes innovation procurement from general government purchases, this study investigates the effects and underlying mechanisms of government innovation procurement on the innovation efficiency of peer firms. We find that government innovation procurement significantly enhances peer firms' innovation efficiency. Our mechanism analyses reveal that government innovation procurement sends positive signals, increasing peer firms' citations of procured firms' patents, thereby improving their innovation efficiency. The heterogeneity analyses indicate that this positive relationship is more pronounced when peer firms occupy comparable market positions, operate in regions with high-speed rail, have common analysts with the procured firms, and are classified as high-tech enterprises. We also find that central government procurement, cross-regional procurement, and evaluation methods involving “competitive consultation and negotiation” significantly enhance peer firms' innovation efficiency. Overall, our findings provide theoretical guidance and practical insights for governments to foster firm innovation and advance high-quality industrial development through innovation procurement.
{"title":"Learning from winning firms: Government innovation procurement and peer innovation efficiency","authors":"Hui Jiang , Yu Liu , Junqi Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102543","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102543","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Governments are major purchasers of goods and services globally. Although previous research highlights the role of government procurement in shaping business activities, the spillover effects on peer firms' innovation efficiency remain unexplored. Through a textual analysis that distinguishes innovation procurement from general government purchases, this study investigates the effects and underlying mechanisms of government innovation procurement on the innovation efficiency of peer firms. We find that government innovation procurement significantly enhances peer firms' innovation efficiency. Our mechanism analyses reveal that government innovation procurement sends positive signals, increasing peer firms' citations of procured firms' patents, thereby improving their innovation efficiency. The heterogeneity analyses indicate that this positive relationship is more pronounced when peer firms occupy comparable market positions, operate in regions with high-speed rail, have common analysts with the procured firms, and are classified as high-tech enterprises. We also find that central government procurement, cross-regional procurement, and evaluation methods involving “competitive consultation and negotiation” significantly enhance peer firms' innovation efficiency. Overall, our findings provide theoretical guidance and practical insights for governments to foster firm innovation and advance high-quality industrial development through innovation procurement.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102543"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145018876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-09-03DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102542
Jie Xiao , Qinghua Zhang , Brian Knight , Liutang Gong
We investigate political budget cycles in prefecture-level cities in China by leveraging cross-province variation in the timing of the Provincial Congress of the Communist Party, which is the most significant event for promoting and reappointing prefecture leaders. Our findings reveal strong evidence of a cyclical pattern, characterized by an increase in government spending leading up to the Congress, followed by a decrease afterward. This trend is particularly pronounced for infrastructure spending, which is a crucial driver of economic growth in China. Additionally, we examine China's multi-layer government hierarchy and explore heterogeneity across prefectures. Our analysis shows that these cycles are especially evident when promotion opportunities for prefecture leaders are most prominent. In terms of revenue sources, we do not observe significant cyclical patterns for in-budget revenues; however, we do find evidence of cycles in revenues from land sales, a vital source of off-budget revenues. Our study contributes to the literature by examining both the size of government and the allocation of public funds in order to uncover distinct political budget cycles at the prefecture level in China and highlighting the vertical incentives within the multi-layer government hierarchy.
{"title":"Political budget cycles, government size, and the allocation of public funds: Evidence from prefectures in China","authors":"Jie Xiao , Qinghua Zhang , Brian Knight , Liutang Gong","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102542","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102542","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We investigate political budget cycles in prefecture-level cities in China by leveraging cross-province variation in the timing of the Provincial Congress of the Communist Party, which is the most significant event for promoting and reappointing prefecture leaders. Our findings reveal strong evidence of a cyclical pattern, characterized by an increase in government spending leading up to the Congress, followed by a decrease afterward. This trend is particularly pronounced for infrastructure spending, which is a crucial driver of economic growth in China. Additionally, we examine China's multi-layer government hierarchy and explore heterogeneity across prefectures. Our analysis shows that these cycles are especially evident when promotion opportunities for prefecture leaders are most prominent. In terms of revenue sources, we do not observe significant cyclical patterns for in-budget revenues; however, we do find evidence of cycles in revenues from land sales, a vital source of off-budget revenues. Our study contributes to the literature by examining both the size of government and the allocation of public funds in order to uncover distinct political budget cycles at the prefecture level in China and highlighting the vertical incentives within the multi-layer government hierarchy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102542"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145048840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-29DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102540
Weisong Cheng , Hao Xu
This study employs ten-wave data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), covering the period from 1989 to 2015. It leverages the nationwide internet speed upgrading project launched in the early 21st century as an exogenous shock. Using this variation, we construct a difference-in-differences model to identify the causal effect of broadband internet access on children’s weight outcomes. The results show that broadband internet significantly increases the probability of children being overweight. Robustness tests support these results. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the weights of children who are older and in urban are more affected by broadband internet. Mechanism analysis reveals that broadband internet increases children’s sedentary game activities time, decreases their physical activities time, and increases their snack intake and total energy intake. This study underscores the significance of coordinated regulation of children's gaming activities by parents, schools, communities, and the government, in order to effectively reduce children's online game time, mitigate the risk of overweight, and alleviate the economic burden associated with childhood overweight.
{"title":"The effect of broadband internet on children's weight: Evidence from China","authors":"Weisong Cheng , Hao Xu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102540","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102540","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study employs ten-wave data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), covering the period from 1989 to 2015. It leverages the nationwide internet speed upgrading project launched in the early 21st century as an exogenous shock. Using this variation, we construct a difference-in-differences model to identify the causal effect of broadband internet access on children’s weight outcomes. The results show that broadband internet significantly increases the probability of children being overweight. Robustness tests support these results. The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the weights of children who are older and in urban are more affected by broadband internet. Mechanism analysis reveals that broadband internet increases children’s sedentary game activities time, decreases their physical activities time, and increases their snack intake and total energy intake. This study underscores the significance of coordinated regulation of children's gaming activities by parents, schools, communities, and the government, in order to effectively reduce children's online game time, mitigate the risk of overweight, and alleviate the economic burden associated with childhood overweight.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102540"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145004166","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-28DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102523
Jianpeng Deng , Zi Wang
We propose a theory in which developing countries may lose from using duty exemptions to encourage processing trade. Our model features that (i) processing exports have a much lower domestic value-added share (DVAS) than ordinary exports and domestic sales, and (ii) domestic production exhibits external economies of scale. Consequently, the welfare effects of duty exemptions can be decomposed into two main components: (i) the direct effect captures welfare gains through reduced input costs and access to a greater variety of imported inputs. In contrast, (ii) the market size effect reflects welfare losses due to the contraction of domestic production, driven by the reallocation of labor away from high-DVAS production to low-DVAS processing production. We then calibrate our model to the Chinese firm-level data and aggregate trade flows across 47 economies. Our counterfactual analysis shows that the welfare losses associated with the market size effect outweigh the welfare gains from the direct effect, resulting in a reduction in China’s real income.
{"title":"The costs of duty exemptions in processing trade","authors":"Jianpeng Deng , Zi Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102523","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102523","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a theory in which developing countries may lose from using duty exemptions to encourage processing trade. Our model features that (i) processing exports have a much lower domestic value-added share (DVAS) than ordinary exports and domestic sales, and (ii) domestic production exhibits external economies of scale. Consequently, the welfare effects of duty exemptions can be decomposed into two main components: (i) the <em>direct effect</em> captures welfare gains through reduced input costs and access to a greater variety of imported inputs. In contrast, (ii) the <em>market size effect</em> reflects welfare losses due to the contraction of domestic production, driven by the reallocation of labor away from high-DVAS production to low-DVAS processing production. We then calibrate our model to the Chinese firm-level data and aggregate trade flows across 47 economies. Our counterfactual analysis shows that the welfare losses associated with the market size effect outweigh the welfare gains from the direct effect, resulting in a reduction in China’s real income.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102523"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-27DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102538
Fanghao Chen , Ruichi Xiong , Shan Zhao
This paper measures the urban shape of Chinese prefecture-level cities and examines the impacts of its fragmentation on local innovation activity. Using a harmonized satellite nightlight dataset from 1999 to 2021, we delineate urban areas as polygons formed by adjacent bright grids at night. We decompose changes in a city's urban shape into two components: the dispersion of individual polygons, and the fragmentation characterized by the growing spatial separation between these polygons. Our empirical analysis reveals that deteriorating urban shape, which typically results in longer commutes for individuals to meet, is associated with fewer local patent grants, with urban fragmentation being the primary driver. Mechanism analysis reveals that intensified urban fragmentation disproportionately impedes collaborative innovation, primarily by elevating communication costs within inventor teams. These findings highlight the pivotal role of optimized urban spatial structures in fostering face-to-face interactions and knowledge spillovers essential for innovation ecosystems.
{"title":"Urban fragmentation and innovation collaboration: Evidence from China","authors":"Fanghao Chen , Ruichi Xiong , Shan Zhao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102538","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102538","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper measures the urban shape of Chinese prefecture-level cities and examines the impacts of its fragmentation on local innovation activity. Using a harmonized satellite nightlight dataset from 1999 to 2021, we delineate urban areas as polygons formed by adjacent bright grids at night. We decompose changes in a city's urban shape into two components: the dispersion of individual polygons, and the fragmentation characterized by the growing spatial separation between these polygons. Our empirical analysis reveals that deteriorating urban shape, which typically results in longer commutes for individuals to meet, is associated with fewer local patent grants, with urban fragmentation being the primary driver. Mechanism analysis reveals that intensified urban fragmentation disproportionately impedes collaborative innovation, primarily by elevating communication costs within inventor teams. These findings highlight the pivotal role of optimized urban spatial structures in fostering face-to-face interactions and knowledge spillovers essential for innovation ecosystems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102538"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144925678","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-26DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102524
Hongye Sun, Gongjing Gao
The accelerating global adoption of intelligent automation (IA) technologies is fundamentally transforming economic structures and reshaping individual lifestyles. Despite intense debate regarding the societal impacts of IA, including both beneficial and adverse effects, empirical evidence on its net influence on multidimensional well-being outcomes remains scarce. Drawing on a nationally representative dataset from China (2018–2020), we employed multilevel probit models with instrumental variables to investigate how IA influences subjective well-being (SWB) and job satisfaction (JS), differentiating between standard and nonstandard employment contexts. Our findings revealed distinct nonlinear relationships: an inverted U-shaped pattern between IA and SWB, versus a U-shaped relationship between IA and JS, with turning points above the 35th and 80th percentiles of IA intensity distribution, respectively. These contrasting trajectories suggest that IA’s impacts vary considerably between consumption utility and production utility domains. The results demonstrate significant heterogeneity in the well-being effects of IA across different forms of employment. Specifically, within standard employment arrangements, IA exerts strong marginal diminishing effects on JS, though with an earlier turning point as IA intensity increases. Moreover, our counterfactual decomposition analysis verifies that IA contributes to narrowing the overall SWB and JS gaps between standard and nonstandard forms of employment by approximately 13% and 19%, respectively. Our mediation analysis identified three distinct transmission mechanisms — psychological factors, social interactions, and structural inequality — through which IA influences well-being, with mental exhaustion and actual inequality accounting for 38% and 30% of the total negative effect of IA on JS, respectively. These findings suggest that policy interventions would ensure balanced technological integration to maximize technology’s welfare benefits while mitigating its polarizing tendencies. This study provides important implications for understanding how technological transformation shapes human well-being across increasingly segmented global labor markets.
{"title":"The impact of intelligent automation on subjective well-being and job satisfaction: A comparison between standard and nonstandard employment","authors":"Hongye Sun, Gongjing Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102524","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102524","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The accelerating global adoption of intelligent automation (IA) technologies is fundamentally transforming economic structures and reshaping individual lifestyles. Despite intense debate regarding the societal impacts of IA, including both beneficial and adverse effects, empirical evidence on its net influence on multidimensional well-being outcomes remains scarce. Drawing on a nationally representative dataset from China (2018–2020), we employed multilevel probit models with instrumental variables to investigate how IA influences subjective well-being (SWB) and job satisfaction (JS), differentiating between standard and nonstandard employment contexts. Our findings revealed distinct nonlinear relationships: an inverted U-shaped pattern between IA and SWB, versus a U-shaped relationship between IA and JS, with turning points above the 35th and 80th percentiles of IA intensity distribution, respectively. These contrasting trajectories suggest that IA’s impacts vary considerably between consumption utility and production utility domains. The results demonstrate significant heterogeneity in the well-being effects of IA across different forms of employment. Specifically, within standard employment arrangements, IA exerts strong marginal diminishing effects on JS, though with an earlier turning point as IA intensity increases. Moreover, our counterfactual decomposition analysis verifies that IA contributes to narrowing the overall SWB and JS gaps between standard and nonstandard forms of employment by approximately 13% and 19%, respectively. Our mediation analysis identified three distinct transmission mechanisms — psychological factors, social interactions, and structural inequality — through which IA influences well-being, with mental exhaustion and actual inequality accounting for 38% and 30% of the total negative effect of IA on JS, respectively. These findings suggest that policy interventions would ensure balanced technological integration to maximize technology’s welfare benefits while mitigating its polarizing tendencies. This study provides important implications for understanding how technological transformation shapes human well-being across increasingly segmented global labor markets.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102524"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921563","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There are two competing perspectives regarding the nexus between robotics adoption and the cost of equity. One view posits that robotics adoption allows firms to cut more jobs when necessary, leading to decreases in the cost of equity, thanks to technological advances and improved efficiency. Another view, however, postulates that robotics adoption may disrupt workforce morale, prompting shareholders to demand higher returns to offset perceived operational risks, thereby increasing the cost of equity. To empirically examine these conflicting effects, this study analyzes data from Chinese publicly traded firms spanning 2006 to 2019. Leveraging industry-level metrics on robotics adoption from the International Federation of Robotics and a panel of Chinese listed firms, this study identifies a robust negative association between robotics adoption and the cost of equity. Mechanism analysis reveals that robotics impacts firms' cost of equity via two opposing channels: operating leverage and employee satisfaction, with the former dominating the latter. This research enriches a growing body of literature on automation technologies by offering solid evidence from Chinese firms and sheds light on how robotics adoption influences firms' cost of equity.
关于采用机器人技术与公平成本之间的关系，有两种相互竞争的观点。一种观点认为，由于技术的进步和效率的提高，采用机器人技术可以让企业在必要时裁减更多的工作岗位，从而降低股权成本。然而，另一种观点认为，采用机器人技术可能会破坏员工士气，促使股东要求更高的回报来抵消感知到的运营风险，从而增加股权成本。为了实证检验这些相互冲突的影响，本研究分析了2006年至2019年中国上市公司的数据。利用国际机器人联合会（International Federation of robotics）和一组中国上市公司关于机器人采用的行业指标，本研究发现机器人采用与股权成本之间存在强烈的负相关关系。机制分析表明，机器人技术通过经营杠杆和员工满意度两个相反的渠道影响企业股权成本，前者主导后者。本研究通过提供来自中国企业的确凿证据，丰富了越来越多关于自动化技术的文献，并揭示了机器人的采用如何影响企业的股权成本。
{"title":"Robots and cost of equity: Evidence from China","authors":"Chao He , Zhongsheng Zhou , Fangfang Jian , Yuhan Qiu","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102539","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102539","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are two competing perspectives regarding the nexus between robotics adoption and the cost of equity. One view posits that robotics adoption allows firms to cut more jobs when necessary, leading to decreases in the cost of equity, thanks to technological advances and improved efficiency. Another view, however, postulates that robotics adoption may disrupt workforce morale, prompting shareholders to demand higher returns to offset perceived operational risks, thereby increasing the cost of equity. To empirically examine these conflicting effects, this study analyzes data from Chinese publicly traded firms spanning 2006 to 2019. Leveraging industry-level metrics on robotics adoption from the International Federation of Robotics and a panel of Chinese listed firms, this study identifies a robust negative association between robotics adoption and the cost of equity. Mechanism analysis reveals that robotics impacts firms' cost of equity via two opposing channels: operating leverage and employee satisfaction, with the former dominating the latter. This research enriches a growing body of literature on automation technologies by offering solid evidence from Chinese firms and sheds light on how robotics adoption influences firms' cost of equity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102539"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144996359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-23DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102537
Zhouling Bai , Pan Zhang , Hongtao Yi
Though the goal-setting theory has attracted much attention, current research neglects how the principal-agent structure shapes agents' target-setting. This study estimates how principal-agent incentive arrangements affect target-setting from the micro-level perspective of local officials. Using a novel fuzzy regression discontinuity design, it shows that China's political selection system creates a significant downward discontinuity in city-level agents' political career advancement prospects at the 55-year-old age threshold, and city agents with weaker age-based career incentives set lower GDP growth targets than those with stronger ones. Moreover, this effect decreases when these agents are under increased pressure to curb environmental pollution. The subperiod analysis suggests that the strategic target-setting behavior of local agents evolves dynamically in response to changes in performance evaluation criteria. It contributes to the target-setting theory in principal-agent contexts, featuring a rigorous political promotion ladder and trade-offs associated with multiple tasks.
{"title":"Political career incentives and multitasking trade-off: Evidence from setting performance targets in Chinese cities","authors":"Zhouling Bai , Pan Zhang , Hongtao Yi","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102537","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102537","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Though the goal-setting theory has attracted much attention, current research neglects how the principal-agent structure shapes agents' target-setting. This study estimates how principal-agent incentive arrangements affect target-setting from the micro-level perspective of local officials. Using a novel fuzzy regression discontinuity design, it shows that China's political selection system creates a significant downward discontinuity in city-level agents' political career advancement prospects at the 55-year-old age threshold, and city agents with weaker age-based career incentives set lower GDP growth targets than those with stronger ones. Moreover, this effect decreases when these agents are under increased pressure to curb environmental pollution. The subperiod analysis suggests that the strategic target-setting behavior of local agents evolves dynamically in response to changes in performance evaluation criteria. It contributes to the target-setting theory in principal-agent contexts, featuring a rigorous political promotion ladder and trade-offs associated with multiple tasks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102537"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144931821","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-08-23DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102535
Chang Li , Wei Li , Yuhui Shao
This paper examines how global monetary policy shocks (MPS) transmitted through trade networks affect supply chain adaptation of Chinese firms. When exposed to higher supplier-side MPS, firms experience significantly higher separation rates and lower foreign entry rates. Our findings remain robust across a range of alternative MPS measures. In response, firms shift their sourcing from high-interest-rate countries to low-interest-rate countries, but they do not re-shore. We show that trade credit and price adjustment by suppliers are important for explaining the restructuring. The disruption is more likely driven by customer decisions. Moreover, heterogeneities show that firms with stricter credit constraints are more sensitive to MPS, while longer-duration supply chain relationships show greater resilience. The supply chain adaptation induced by MPS also leads to adverse real economic outcomes for imports, exports, and profitability.
{"title":"Global monetary policy shocks and the adaptation of supply chains","authors":"Chang Li , Wei Li , Yuhui Shao","doi":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102535","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102535","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how global monetary policy shocks (MPS) transmitted through trade networks affect supply chain adaptation of Chinese firms. When exposed to higher supplier-side MPS, firms experience significantly higher separation rates and lower foreign entry rates. Our findings remain robust across a range of alternative MPS measures. In response, firms shift their sourcing from high-interest-rate countries to low-interest-rate countries, but they do not re-shore. We show that trade credit and price adjustment by suppliers are important for explaining the restructuring. The disruption is more likely driven by customer decisions. Moreover, heterogeneities show that firms with stricter credit constraints are more sensitive to MPS, while longer-duration supply chain relationships show greater resilience. The supply chain adaptation induced by MPS also leads to adverse real economic outcomes for imports, exports, and profitability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48285,"journal":{"name":"中国经济评论","volume":"94 ","pages":"Article 102535"},"PeriodicalIF":5.5,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144921564","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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