中国经济评论最新文献

英文中文

Maturity mismatch and disinvestment as transmission mechanisms: Linking economic policy uncertainty to firm performance 期限错配和撤资作为传导机制：将经济政策不确定性与企业绩效联系起来

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102565

Lifang Hu

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the global economic and political landscape has become ever-changing, leading to rising economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China. Utilizing indicators of macro EPU and firm perception of EPU, this study analyzes panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms (2007–2022) to investigate how EPU affects firm performance. The research findings demonstrate that EPU negatively affects firm performance primarily through maturity mismatch and disinvestment. Macro-level economic policy uncertainty shapes micro-level firm perceptions and strategic responses. Furthermore, the negative impact of EPU is more pronounced for firms operating in highly concentrated industries, as well as for risk-preferred firms, non-SOEs, cross-border firms during periods of Sino–US trade friction, and decline-stage firms. Lastly, this study recommends that government agencies prioritize continuity, predictability, and transparency in implementation of economic policies. To build resilience when EPU is rising, firms should leverage information-driven strategy, optimize debt–asset structure, and enhance competitiveness.

进入21世纪以来，全球经济和政治格局不断变化，导致中国经济政策不确定性上升。本研究利用宏观环境绩效指标和企业环境绩效感知指标，分析2007-2022年中国a股上市公司面板数据，探讨环境绩效对企业绩效的影响。研究发现，EPU主要通过期限错配和撤资对企业绩效产生负向影响。宏观经济政策的不确定性塑造了微观层面的企业认知和战略反应。此外，对于高度集中行业的企业、偏好风险的企业、非国有企业、中美贸易摩擦期间的跨境企业以及处于衰退阶段的企业，EPU的负面影响更为明显。最后，本研究建议政府机构在实施经济政策时优先考虑连续性、可预测性和透明度。在EPU上升的情况下，企业应利用信息驱动战略，优化债务-资产结构，增强竞争力。

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引用次数: 0

Unintended negative impact of environmental regulation on public safety: Evidence from China 环境规制对公共安全的意外负面影响：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102562

Yichuan Zhang , Jiezhong Shen , Tianyun Zhu

This paper investigates the unintended effect of air pollution regulations on public safety. Based on a city-level panel data set, we document first evidence of the causal relationship between environmental regulations and crime rate, using difference-in-differences approach. Specifically, we find that the well-known “2+26” work plan of air pollution control for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Atmospheric Pollution Transmission Corridor increased the incidence of intentional injury, provocation and troublemaking, dangerous driving, theft, and robbery in a statistical sense. Regarding the underlying mechanism, environmental regulations may cause substantial job displacement, which in turn triggers negative emotions and psychological distress, ultimately increasing both economically motivated and emotionally driven crimes. Our empirical results imply extra social cost of environmental regulations, which has been mostly overlooked in the literature.

本文研究了空气污染法规对公共安全的意外影响。基于城市层面的面板数据集，我们使用差异中的差异方法首次记录了环境法规与犯罪率之间因果关系的证据。具体而言，我们发现，众所周知的京津冀大气污染输送走廊大气污染治理“2+26”工作计划在统计意义上增加了故意伤害、挑衅滋事、危险驾驶、盗窃和抢劫的发生率。就其潜在机制而言，环境法规可能导致大量的工作岗位流失，进而引发负面情绪和心理困扰，最终增加经济动机和情感驱动的犯罪。我们的实证结果暗示了环境法规的额外社会成本，这在文献中大多被忽视。

引用次数: 0

Long-term care insurance policy and the development of elderly care enterprises in China 长期护理保险政策与中国养老企业的发展

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102564

Tianli Yang , Zhong Zhao

This paper examines the effect of Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) policy on the development of elderly care enterprises in China. Exploiting a policy shock and employing a difference-in-differences design, we find that the implementation of LTCI policy significantly promotes the number of new entries and survival rate of elderly care enterprises, particularly for individual businesses, enterprises in health and social work industry, and those located in eastern region. Notably, service-only LTCI policy exhibits a stronger effect on the development of elderly care enterprises than the policy combining service and cash benefits. Mechanism analysis suggests that LTCI stimulates market demand for formal care services and increases government expenditures on social security and healthcare, both of which drive the development of elderly care enterprises. We also find that LTCI policy boosts labor demand in the elderly care industry. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that LTCI can help address the shortage of long-term care services and enhance family welfare.

本文考察了长期护理保险政策对中国养老企业发展的影响。利用政策冲击和差异中的差异设计，我们发现LTCI政策的实施显著促进了养老企业的新入店数量和存活率，特别是个体企业、卫生和社会工作行业企业以及东部地区的企业。值得注意的是，纯服务LTCI政策对养老企业发展的影响要强于服务与现金福利相结合的政策。机制分析表明，LTCI刺激了市场对正规养老服务的需求，增加了政府在社会保障和医疗保健方面的支出，这两者都推动了养老企业的发展。我们还发现LTCI政策促进了养老行业的劳动力需求。总体而言，我们的实证研究结果表明，LTCI有助于解决长期护理服务的短缺问题，并提高家庭福利。

引用次数: 0

Who benefits from compulsory education? Evidence from the average and heterogeneous effects on migrant welfare in China 义务教育的受益者是谁？来自中国流动人口福利的平均效应和异质性效应的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102559

Yucheng Sun , Meizhen Li , Zhewen Pan , Xianbo Zhou

This paper examines the heterogeneous treatment effects of the 1986 compulsory education law on migrant welfare in China. We develop a novel instrument by exploiting variation in exposure intensity across cohorts and local enforcement strength across counties of birth. Based on the marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework, we find that migrants with higher gains on wage are more likely to receive compulsory education than migrants with lower gains. In contrast, other welfare outcomes have their own heterogeneous patterns. Counterfactual analysis shows that as an equalizer, compulsory education almost removes the intergroup difference in welfare outcomes. The findings above are robust to various checks. Policy simulation reveals that targeted education policies could be more cost-benefit efficient than universal education programs.

本文考察了1986年《义务教育法》对农民工福利的异质性处理效果。我们开发了一种新的工具，通过利用不同队列的暴露强度和不同出生县的当地执法力量的变化。基于边际待遇效应（MTE）框架，我们发现工资收入较高的农民工比工资收入较低的农民工更有可能接受义务教育。相比之下，其他福利结果有自己的异质模式。反事实分析表明，义务教育作为一种均衡器，几乎消除了群体间福利结果的差异。上述发现对各种检查都是可靠的。政策模拟表明，有针对性的教育政策可能比普及教育计划更具成本效益效益。

引用次数: 0

Ownership structure, power separation and the supervisory effectiveness of independent director system 股权结构、权力分离与独立董事制度的监督效力

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102560

Sheng Hua , Zheng Ji

We develop a theory to explain that the paradoxical ineffectiveness of China's independent directors stems from a failure to achieve separation of powers. Using a game-theoretic model, we show that in dispersed ownership economies, this separation arises naturally, creating an incentive-compatible equilibrium where monitoring is effective. In contrast, China's concentrated ownership structure leads to a consolidation of powers, where the controlling shareholder acts as both principal and agent, simultaneously controlling operations, supervision, and sanctions. This power consolidation structurally neutralizes independent directors, rendering them captured monitors. This power-based framework explains two key puzzles: why governance mechanisms fail when transplanted from Type I to Type II agency environments, and why enhancing de jure board powers is futile when de facto power is not reallocated. We show that meaningful reform must reinstate power separation by externalizing the sanctioning mechanism and realigning nomination rights away from controlling shareholders.

我们发展了一种理论来解释中国独立董事的悖论性无效源于未能实现权力分立。利用博弈论模型，我们表明，在分散所有权经济中，这种分离是自然产生的，创造了一种激励相容的平衡，在这种平衡中，监督是有效的。相比之下，中国集中的股权结构导致了权力的整合，控股股东既是委托人又是代理人，同时控制着经营、监督和制裁。这种权力整合从结构上削弱了独立董事的地位，使他们成为被俘的监督者。这种基于权力的框架解释了两个关键难题：为什么治理机制在从第一类机构环境移植到第二类机构环境时会失败，以及为什么当事实上的权力没有重新分配时，加强法律上的董事会权力是徒劳的。我们表明，有意义的改革必须通过将制裁机制外部化和重新调整提名权，使其远离控股股东，从而恢复权力分立。

引用次数: 0

The employment effects of VAT rebate efficiency: Evidence from SMEs in China∗ 增值税退税率对就业的影响：来自中国中小企业的证据*

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102561

Bing Lu , Hong Ma , Jiashu Hu , Yuan Xu

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are pivotal for job creation in China. This study investigates whether improving the efficiency of Value-Added Tax (VAT) rebates can promote employment in SMEs. Using firm-level data from the National Tax Survey and Chinese Customs, we find that reducing VAT rebate delays significantly increases SME employment, both on the intensive margin—by expanding employment within existing firms—and on the extensive margin—by reducing the probability of exit from export markets. Furthermore, SMEs that face greater financial constraints exhibit heightened sensitivity to VAT rebate delays. Our findings highlight the importance of streamlining VAT rebate processes, particularly for financially constrained firms, to boost employment.

中小企业是中国创造就业的关键。本研究探讨提高增值税退税效率是否能促进中小企业就业。利用来自全国税务调查和中国海关的企业层面数据，我们发现，减少增值税退税延迟显著增加了中小企业的就业，无论是在集约型边际上——通过扩大现有企业内的就业，还是在粗放边际上——通过减少退出出口市场的可能性。此外，面临更大财务约束的中小企业对增值税退税延迟表现出更高的敏感性。我们的研究结果强调了简化增值税退税流程对促进就业的重要性，特别是对财务受限的公司而言。

引用次数: 0

How does non-financial firms' systemic risk affect their credit constraints? Evidence from China 非金融企业的系统性风险如何影响它们的信贷约束？来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102557

Xiao-Lin Li , Wentian Qu , Guojing Qiu

While non-financial firms (NFFs) face growing vulnerabilities and enhanced interconnectedness, their systemic risk implications remain understudied compared to those of financial institutions like banks and insurers. Going beyond the existing literature, this study focuses on the systemic risk of NFFs and further reveals its effects on these firms' credit constraints. Using firm-level systemic risk data and financial data from Chinese non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2021, we find that higher systemic risk in NFFs reduces access to bank credit, increases borrowing costs, and shortens credit maturities, thereby leading to tighter credit constraints. Systemic risk in NFFs exacerbates credit constraints through increased information asymmetry, higher probabilities of financial distress, and risk spillovers. These findings highlight the importance of systemic risk in predicting corporate financial distress and real economic weakness and its significance in banks' assessments of corporate solvency and credit risk.

尽管非金融公司（nff）面临着日益增长的脆弱性和增强的互联性，但与银行和保险公司等金融机构相比，它们的系统性风险影响仍未得到充分研究。在现有文献的基础上，本研究将重点放在NFFs的系统性风险上，并进一步揭示其对这些企业信贷约束的影响。利用2007年至2021年中国非金融类上市公司的企业层面系统风险数据和财务数据，我们发现，NFFs系统风险的增加减少了获得银行信贷的机会，增加了借贷成本，缩短了信贷期限，从而导致信贷约束收紧。NFFs的系统性风险通过增加信息不对称、更高的金融困境概率和风险溢出加剧了信贷约束。这些发现突出了系统风险在预测企业财务困境和实体经济疲软方面的重要性，以及它在银行评估企业偿付能力和信用风险方面的重要性。

引用次数: 0

The nexus between digital finance and household consumption-based carbon emissions: Evidence from China 数字金融与家庭消费碳排放之间的关系：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102556

Yong Yu , Chenzhe Zhai , Debao Hu , Zicun Wang

While identifying the sources of carbon emissions has long been a critical focus for researchers and policymakers, there remains a notable gap in understanding micro-level drivers, particularly the relationship between digital finance and household consumption-based carbon emissions. Existing literature has paid limited attention to how digital finance influences this issue. To address this gap, this study investigates the effect of digital finance on household consumption-based carbon emissions and its underlying mechanisms, using Chinese household data. Our analysis reveals that the development of digital finance significantly increases household consumption-based carbon emissions, and this positive effect remains robust even after addressing potential endogeneity concerns. Furthermore, the impact of digital finance on household consumption-based carbon emissions is more prominent in China’s eastern region and rural areas. These findings provide valuable insights for formulating targeted carbon emission reduction policies in the context of digital financial development

虽然确定碳排放的来源一直是研究人员和政策制定者关注的重点，但在理解微观层面的驱动因素，特别是数字金融与基于家庭消费的碳排放之间的关系方面，仍然存在显著差距。现有文献对数字金融如何影响这一问题的关注有限。为了解决这一差距，本研究利用中国家庭数据调查了数字金融对家庭消费碳排放的影响及其潜在机制。我们的分析表明，数字金融的发展显著增加了基于家庭消费的碳排放，即使在解决潜在的内生性问题后，这种积极影响仍然强劲。此外，数字金融对家庭消费碳排放的影响在中国东部地区和农村地区更为突出。这些发现为在数字金融发展背景下制定有针对性的碳减排政策提供了有价值的见解

引用次数: 0

Does party organization construction improve chinese banks' stability? Evidence from a new textual index 党组织建设对银行稳定性有促进作用吗？来自新文本索引的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102541

Lu Wei , Mingye Wei , Yifei Wu , Zhongbo Jing

According to China's newly revised Company Law (2024), companies are required to establish Communist Party of China (CPC; also, Party) organizations because Party-related activities are crucial for banks' stability. This study innovatively constructs a textual indicator to measure the development, governance, and education of the CPC organization based on annual reports. Then, we investigate the impact of Party organization construction on bankruptcy risk in 16 publicly listed banks from 2017 to 2022. Statistical analysis reveals that banks are gradually making efforts to enhance and improve internal Party organization construction. Moreover, overall Party organization construction reduces bank failure risk by inhibiting banks from engaging in high-risk business, such as interbank and shadow banking business. Compared with the Party organization construction dimensions of development and governance, the education of Party organization can better reduce bankruptcy risk. Furthermore, this reduction effect is more pronounced for state-owned banks, bigger banks, banks with profitability pressures and under financial distress, and during the pandemic period. This study expands the study of bank failure risk from the corporate governance perspective, showing that the Party organization construction contributes to safeguarding financial stability.

根据中国新修订的《公司法》（2024年），公司必须建立中国共产党（CPC）组织，因为与党的有关的活动对银行的稳定至关重要。本文创新性地构建了基于年度报告的中国共产党组织发展、治理和教育的文本指标。然后，我们研究了2017 - 2022年16家上市银行党组织建设对破产风险的影响。统计分析表明，银行正在逐步加强和改进内部党组织建设。此外，全面的党组织建设通过抑制银行从事同业和影子银行等高风险业务来降低银行倒闭风险。与党组织建设的发展和治理维度相比，党组织教育可以更好地降低破产风险。此外，对于国有银行、规模较大的银行、面临盈利压力和财务困境的银行以及疫情期间，这种减产效应更为明显。本研究从公司治理视角拓展了对银行倒闭风险的研究，表明党组织建设有助于维护金融稳定。

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引用次数: 0

Centralized procurement authority and corporate innovation 集中采购权与企业创新

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102544

Xiao Jia , Xiaoxi Li , Boluo Liu , Nan Shao

Leveraging the establishment of the National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) in China as an external policy change, we demonstrate that the government's centralized control over drug procurement platform and insurance coverage catalog significantly enhances the innovation activities of pharmaceutical companies. By manually adjusting for expenditures of passing consistency evaluation, we accurately measure effective research and development inputs. Further tests reveal two key mechanisms driving our result: first, NHSA policies negatively impact firms' financial performance and stock returns, leading affected firms to invest more in innovation; second, increased competition further incentivizes innovation, especially among firms that lose more market shares. Importantly, companies with stronger internal resources are more successful in translating these pressures into effective innovation. Our results show that the NHSA not only redefines competitive dynamics but also acts as a powerful catalyst for pharmaceutical innovation, contributing to the understanding of the policy implications of centralized public procurement.

我们利用中国国家医疗保障局的成立作为外部政策变化，证明政府对药品采购平台和保险覆盖目录的集中控制显著增强了制药公司的创新活动。通过手动调整通过一致性评估的支出，我们准确地衡量有效的研发投入。进一步的检验揭示了驱动我们的结果的两个关键机制：第一，国家保障金政策对企业的财务绩效和股票收益产生负向影响，导致受影响的企业更多地投资于创新；其次，竞争的加剧进一步激励了创新，尤其是那些失去更多市场份额的公司。重要的是，拥有更强大内部资源的公司更能成功地将这些压力转化为有效的创新。我们的研究结果表明，NHSA不仅重新定义了竞争动态，而且还作为制药创新的强大催化剂，有助于理解集中公共采购的政策含义。

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