中国经济评论最新文献

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Econometric evaluation of the China–US trade war effects 中美贸易战影响的计量经济学评价

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102567

Zongwu Cai, Jinyan Li

The escalating trade war between China and the US, initiated in 2018, has significantly impacted the trade pattern of these two nations. This event can be treated as an intervention which has led to a series of retaliatory actions, resulting in substantial economic and trade frictions between the two largest economies. This paper aims to analyze the economic impacts of the trade war effects using advanced econometric techniques. Our empirical study employs panel data analysis combined with a factor model, inspired by the methodologies of Hsiao, Ching and Wan (2012) and Bai, Li and Ouyang (2014), to construct trade patterns for both China and the US. By using annual trade data from multiple countries as a control group, we construct counterfactual results for China’s and the US’s imports, exports, and trade balance, respectively. Under a nonstationary setting, the counterfactual results indicate a significant decline in China’s exports and a notable reduction in its trade surplus with the US post-2018. Meanwhile, US imports from China decreased, aligning with the trade war’s goal of reducing the trade deficit, while US exports to China unexpectedly increased, possibly influenced by the Phase One trade agreement. We also perform a dynamic permutation test on treatment effects over time, which ensures the rigor and significance of our analysis, reinforcing the reliability of the estimated effects. Finally, we conduct an empirical comparative analysis with alternative methods to demonstrate that our chosen approach is particularly well-suited to the context of this study.

2018年开始的中美贸易战不断升级，对两国贸易格局产生了重大影响。这一事件可以被视为一种干预，导致了一系列报复行动，导致两个最大经济体之间出现了大量的经济和贸易摩擦。本文旨在运用先进的计量经济学方法分析贸易战效应的经济影响。我们的实证研究采用面板数据分析结合因子模型，灵感来自Hsiao， Ching and Wan（2012）和Bai， Li and Ouyang（2014）的方法，构建中美两国的贸易模式。通过使用多个国家的年度贸易数据作为对照组，我们分别构建了中国和美国的进口、出口和贸易平衡的反事实结果。在非平稳背景下，反事实结果表明，2018年后中国出口大幅下降，对美贸易顺差显著减少。与此同时，美国从中国的进口减少，符合贸易战减少贸易逆差的目标，而美国对中国的出口意外增加，可能受到第一阶段贸易协定的影响。我们还对治疗效果进行了随时间变化的动态排列测试，这确保了我们分析的严谨性和重要性，加强了估计效果的可靠性。最后，我们与其他方法进行了实证比较分析，以证明我们选择的方法特别适合本研究的背景。

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引用次数: 0

Narrative monetary policy expectation in China 叙述中国货币政策预期

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102568

Dandan Zhu , Xiangdong Wang , Yifan Zhang

This study introduces a novel narrative monetary policy expectation (

M P E^{N}

) index for China, constructed through the semantic analysis of more than one million economic news articles. While our

M P E^{N}

aligns with macro- and micro-survey-based monetary policy expectation indicators, it offers distinct advantages, including higher frequency, timeliness, and cost-effectiveness. Employing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model, we find that the expectation of expansionary monetary policy is associated with economic downturns or inflation declines. Furthermore, monetary policy expectation is more responsive to GDP during downturns and more sensitive to CPI during economic booms.

本文通过对100多万篇经济新闻的语义分析，构建了一个新的中国货币政策预期（MPEN）指数。虽然我们的MPEN与基于宏观和微观调查的货币政策预期指标一致，但它具有明显的优势，包括更高的频率、及时性和成本效益。采用时变参数向量自回归模型，我们发现扩张性货币政策的预期与经济衰退或通货膨胀下降有关。此外，货币政策预期在经济低迷时期对GDP的反应更灵敏，在经济繁荣时期对CPI的反应更敏感。

引用次数: 0

Flood disasters, firm total factor productivity and adaptation behaviors 洪水灾害、企业全要素生产率与适应行为

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102570

Peiting Dong , Xin Yao

Climate change has caused increasingly intense and frequent flooding, resulting in substantial economic loss worldwide in recent years. This study examines the impact of flood disasters on manufacturing firm productivity in China. Using the matched geographic accurate data with firm location and inundated areas, we find that flood disasters result in 9.3 % significant loss on firm TFP, particularly for small-size firms, non-state-owned firms, coastland firms and specific sector firms. Scale effect and innovation effect contribute to these outcomes. Moreover, government intervention can significantly influence firms' adaptation behaviors in the context of floods. All of the estimation results provide preparedness and adaptation support for both private and public sectors.

近年来，气候变化导致洪水日益强烈和频繁，在世界范围内造成了巨大的经济损失。本研究探讨洪涝灾害对中国制造业企业生产力的影响。利用与企业位置和淹没面积相匹配的地理精确数据，我们发现洪涝灾害导致企业TFP显著损失9.3%，特别是对小型企业、非国有企业、沿海企业和特定行业的企业。规模效应和创新效应对这些结果都有贡献。此外，政府干预对企业在洪水环境下的适应行为有显著影响。所有的估计结果都为私营和公共部门提供了准备和适应支持。

引用次数: 0

Recovering after natural disasters: A stabilizing role of the government 自然灾害后的恢复：政府的稳定作用

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102569

Shu Liu, Yonghao Xu

This paper explores the patterns of corporate recovery following natural disasters, with a specific focus on the government’s role in facilitating this process. Our results reveal that firms recover fast following disasters in China, with the effect being more pronounced among state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Mechanism analysis identifies the government’s direct and indirect capital injections as the primary drivers of this swift recovery, which help mitigate disruptions in corporate investments. Furthermore, this government intervention exhibits a nuanced nature. Corporate post-disaster recovery tends to be weaker (stronger) for SOEs (Non-SOEs) when local fiscal expenditure is stronger. Different government intervention methods exhibit a substitution effect. Overall, this paper underscores the noteworthy and intricate role of the government in stabilizing the economy.

本文探讨了自然灾害后企业恢复的模式，并特别关注政府在促进这一过程中的作用。我们的研究结果表明，中国的企业在灾难发生后恢复得很快，而且这种影响在国有企业中更为明显。机制分析认为，政府的直接和间接注资是经济快速复苏的主要推动力，有助于缓解企业投资中断。此外，这种政府干预表现出微妙的性质。当地方财政支出较强时，国企（非国企）的灾后恢复能力往往较弱（较强）。不同的政府干预方式表现出替代效应。总体而言，本文强调了政府在稳定经济方面的重要而复杂的作用。

引用次数: 0

Is government subsidy efficient? Evidence from SMEs' automation in China 政府补贴是否有效？来自中国中小企业自动化的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102566

Xueling Yan , Shule Yu , Xing Zheng

This study examines the impact of government subsidies on the automation decisions of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China. We introduce a theoretical model to analyze how financing constraints affect the net benefits of automation and how subsidies allocated to SMEs with heterogeneous financing conditions can produce varying economic outcomes. Using data from the Enterprise Survey for Innovation and Entrepreneurship in China (ESIEC), we find that: 1) government subsidies significantly enhance automation adoption among SMEs; 2) this effect is primarily driven by the alleviation of financing constraints; and 3) however, subsidies directed towards SMEs with lower endowments may lead to inefficiencies. Our findings highlight the importance of subsidies in promoting technological advancements for financially constrained SMEs, especially in developing economies like China.

本研究考察了政府补贴对中国中小企业自动化决策的影响。我们引入了一个理论模型来分析融资约束如何影响自动化的净效益，以及向融资条件不同的中小企业分配补贴如何产生不同的经济结果。利用中国企业创新创业调查（ESIEC）的数据，我们发现：1)政府补贴显著促进了中小企业自动化的采用；2)这种效应主要是由融资约束的缓解所驱动的；然而，针对禀赋较低的中小企业的补贴可能导致效率低下。我们的研究结果强调了补贴在促进资金受限的中小企业技术进步方面的重要性，特别是在中国等发展中经济体。

引用次数: 0

Maturity mismatch and disinvestment as transmission mechanisms: Linking economic policy uncertainty to firm performance 期限错配和撤资作为传导机制：将经济政策不确定性与企业绩效联系起来

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102565

Lifang Hu

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the global economic and political landscape has become ever-changing, leading to rising economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in China. Utilizing indicators of macro EPU and firm perception of EPU, this study analyzes panel data from Chinese A-share listed firms (2007–2022) to investigate how EPU affects firm performance. The research findings demonstrate that EPU negatively affects firm performance primarily through maturity mismatch and disinvestment. Macro-level economic policy uncertainty shapes micro-level firm perceptions and strategic responses. Furthermore, the negative impact of EPU is more pronounced for firms operating in highly concentrated industries, as well as for risk-preferred firms, non-SOEs, cross-border firms during periods of Sino–US trade friction, and decline-stage firms. Lastly, this study recommends that government agencies prioritize continuity, predictability, and transparency in implementation of economic policies. To build resilience when EPU is rising, firms should leverage information-driven strategy, optimize debt–asset structure, and enhance competitiveness.

进入21世纪以来，全球经济和政治格局不断变化，导致中国经济政策不确定性上升。本研究利用宏观环境绩效指标和企业环境绩效感知指标，分析2007-2022年中国a股上市公司面板数据，探讨环境绩效对企业绩效的影响。研究发现，EPU主要通过期限错配和撤资对企业绩效产生负向影响。宏观经济政策的不确定性塑造了微观层面的企业认知和战略反应。此外，对于高度集中行业的企业、偏好风险的企业、非国有企业、中美贸易摩擦期间的跨境企业以及处于衰退阶段的企业，EPU的负面影响更为明显。最后，本研究建议政府机构在实施经济政策时优先考虑连续性、可预测性和透明度。在EPU上升的情况下，企业应利用信息驱动战略，优化债务-资产结构，增强竞争力。

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引用次数: 0

Unintended negative impact of environmental regulation on public safety: Evidence from China 环境规制对公共安全的意外负面影响：来自中国的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102562

Yichuan Zhang , Jiezhong Shen , Tianyun Zhu

This paper investigates the unintended effect of air pollution regulations on public safety. Based on a city-level panel data set, we document first evidence of the causal relationship between environmental regulations and crime rate, using difference-in-differences approach. Specifically, we find that the well-known “2+26” work plan of air pollution control for Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Atmospheric Pollution Transmission Corridor increased the incidence of intentional injury, provocation and troublemaking, dangerous driving, theft, and robbery in a statistical sense. Regarding the underlying mechanism, environmental regulations may cause substantial job displacement, which in turn triggers negative emotions and psychological distress, ultimately increasing both economically motivated and emotionally driven crimes. Our empirical results imply extra social cost of environmental regulations, which has been mostly overlooked in the literature.

本文研究了空气污染法规对公共安全的意外影响。基于城市层面的面板数据集，我们使用差异中的差异方法首次记录了环境法规与犯罪率之间因果关系的证据。具体而言，我们发现，众所周知的京津冀大气污染输送走廊大气污染治理“2+26”工作计划在统计意义上增加了故意伤害、挑衅滋事、危险驾驶、盗窃和抢劫的发生率。就其潜在机制而言，环境法规可能导致大量的工作岗位流失，进而引发负面情绪和心理困扰，最终增加经济动机和情感驱动的犯罪。我们的实证结果暗示了环境法规的额外社会成本，这在文献中大多被忽视。

引用次数: 0

Long-term care insurance policy and the development of elderly care enterprises in China 长期护理保险政策与中国养老企业的发展

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102564

Tianli Yang , Zhong Zhao

This paper examines the effect of Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) policy on the development of elderly care enterprises in China. Exploiting a policy shock and employing a difference-in-differences design, we find that the implementation of LTCI policy significantly promotes the number of new entries and survival rate of elderly care enterprises, particularly for individual businesses, enterprises in health and social work industry, and those located in eastern region. Notably, service-only LTCI policy exhibits a stronger effect on the development of elderly care enterprises than the policy combining service and cash benefits. Mechanism analysis suggests that LTCI stimulates market demand for formal care services and increases government expenditures on social security and healthcare, both of which drive the development of elderly care enterprises. We also find that LTCI policy boosts labor demand in the elderly care industry. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that LTCI can help address the shortage of long-term care services and enhance family welfare.

本文考察了长期护理保险政策对中国养老企业发展的影响。利用政策冲击和差异中的差异设计，我们发现LTCI政策的实施显著促进了养老企业的新入店数量和存活率，特别是个体企业、卫生和社会工作行业企业以及东部地区的企业。值得注意的是，纯服务LTCI政策对养老企业发展的影响要强于服务与现金福利相结合的政策。机制分析表明，LTCI刺激了市场对正规养老服务的需求，增加了政府在社会保障和医疗保健方面的支出，这两者都推动了养老企业的发展。我们还发现LTCI政策促进了养老行业的劳动力需求。总体而言，我们的实证研究结果表明，LTCI有助于解决长期护理服务的短缺问题，并提高家庭福利。

引用次数: 0

Who benefits from compulsory education? Evidence from the average and heterogeneous effects on migrant welfare in China 义务教育的受益者是谁？来自中国流动人口福利的平均效应和异质性效应的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102559

Yucheng Sun , Meizhen Li , Zhewen Pan , Xianbo Zhou

This paper examines the heterogeneous treatment effects of the 1986 compulsory education law on migrant welfare in China. We develop a novel instrument by exploiting variation in exposure intensity across cohorts and local enforcement strength across counties of birth. Based on the marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework, we find that migrants with higher gains on wage are more likely to receive compulsory education than migrants with lower gains. In contrast, other welfare outcomes have their own heterogeneous patterns. Counterfactual analysis shows that as an equalizer, compulsory education almost removes the intergroup difference in welfare outcomes. The findings above are robust to various checks. Policy simulation reveals that targeted education policies could be more cost-benefit efficient than universal education programs.

本文考察了1986年《义务教育法》对农民工福利的异质性处理效果。我们开发了一种新的工具，通过利用不同队列的暴露强度和不同出生县的当地执法力量的变化。基于边际待遇效应（MTE）框架，我们发现工资收入较高的农民工比工资收入较低的农民工更有可能接受义务教育。相比之下，其他福利结果有自己的异质模式。反事实分析表明，义务教育作为一种均衡器，几乎消除了群体间福利结果的差异。上述发现对各种检查都是可靠的。政策模拟表明，有针对性的教育政策可能比普及教育计划更具成本效益效益。

引用次数: 0

Ownership structure, power separation and the supervisory effectiveness of independent director system 股权结构、权力分离与独立董事制度的监督效力

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102560

Sheng Hua , Zheng Ji

We develop a theory to explain that the paradoxical ineffectiveness of China's independent directors stems from a failure to achieve separation of powers. Using a game-theoretic model, we show that in dispersed ownership economies, this separation arises naturally, creating an incentive-compatible equilibrium where monitoring is effective. In contrast, China's concentrated ownership structure leads to a consolidation of powers, where the controlling shareholder acts as both principal and agent, simultaneously controlling operations, supervision, and sanctions. This power consolidation structurally neutralizes independent directors, rendering them captured monitors. This power-based framework explains two key puzzles: why governance mechanisms fail when transplanted from Type I to Type II agency environments, and why enhancing de jure board powers is futile when de facto power is not reallocated. We show that meaningful reform must reinstate power separation by externalizing the sanctioning mechanism and realigning nomination rights away from controlling shareholders.

我们发展了一种理论来解释中国独立董事的悖论性无效源于未能实现权力分立。利用博弈论模型，我们表明，在分散所有权经济中，这种分离是自然产生的，创造了一种激励相容的平衡，在这种平衡中，监督是有效的。相比之下，中国集中的股权结构导致了权力的整合，控股股东既是委托人又是代理人，同时控制着经营、监督和制裁。这种权力整合从结构上削弱了独立董事的地位，使他们成为被俘的监督者。这种基于权力的框架解释了两个关键难题：为什么治理机制在从第一类机构环境移植到第二类机构环境时会失败，以及为什么当事实上的权力没有重新分配时，加强法律上的董事会权力是徒劳的。我们表明，有意义的改革必须通过将制裁机制外部化和重新调整提名权，使其远离控股股东，从而恢复权力分立。

引用次数: 0

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