中国经济评论最新文献

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The impact of household debt on the wealth distribution and inequality in China 家庭债务对中国财富分配和不平等的影响

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102593

Xuanyu Zhang, Xiaoyun Fan

A recent Chinese household survey shows heterogeneous debt-to-income ratio (DIR) and debt-to-asset ratio (DAR). We analyze the cyclicality and time-lag properties of debt increment with respect to consumption and asset accumulation using econometric methods, and examine the effect of debt on wealth distribution in China by applying heterogeneous asset grids and idiosyncratic returns. The Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman problem solved with interpolation and nested-drift approaches suggests that debt relaxes the budget constraint but hinders asset accumulation among low-income/asset households, and the Gini index increases by around 0.11 in the presence of debt increment. We further demonstrate that the indirect effect of monetary policy via assets accounts for up to 20 percent of the total effect for households with high wealth endowments. However, the high DIR and DAR prevent the compensation of the indirect effect on output growth and consumption for households with low endowments, thereby decreasing the effectiveness of standard monetary policy.

最近的一项中国家庭调查显示，债务收入比（DIR）和债务资产比（DAR）存在异质性。本文运用计量经济学方法分析了债务增量相对于消费和资产积累的周期性和时滞特性，并运用异质性资产网格和特殊收益检验了债务对中国财富分配的影响。用插值和嵌套漂移方法求解的Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman问题表明，债务放松了预算约束，但阻碍了低收入/资产家庭的资产积累，存在债务增量时基尼系数增加约0.11。我们进一步证明，对于拥有高财富禀赋的家庭，货币政策通过资产产生的间接效应占总效应的20%。然而，高DIR和DAR阻碍了对低禀赋家庭产出增长和消费的间接影响的补偿，从而降低了标准货币政策的有效性。

引用次数: 0

Measuring MPC heterogeneity in China: Insights from household registration reform 衡量中国货币政策异质性：来自户籍改革的洞察

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102582

Yawen Gao , Lun Li , Xin Liang

Understanding the marginal propensity to consume (MPC), its heterogeneity among different population groups, and the influence of policy shocks on MPC is crucial for policymakers. This paper addresses these three questions using two datasets: the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). Extending the Euler equation method of Baker (2018), we estimate the MPC for urban residents in China, finding it ranges between 0.130 and 0.144. A comprehensive heterogeneity analysis shows that individuals with lower wealth, married status, poor health, high education, children, non-migrant status, or homeownership tend to have higher MPCs. Using the 2014 Hukou reform as a policy shock, we estimate its impact on the MPC using CHFS. Results from a difference-in-differences analysis reveal that the reform significantly increased the MPC among urban residents. We show that the influx of migrants following the Hukou reform raised urban housing prices, which increased homeowners' debt levels through wealth effects and reduced their liquid assets, ultimately raising their marginal propensity to consume.

了解边际消费倾向（MPC）及其在不同人群中的异质性，以及政策冲击对MPC的影响，对政策制定者至关重要。本文使用中国家庭调查（CFPS）和中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）两个数据集来解决这三个问题。我们扩展了Baker（2018）的欧拉方程方法，估计了中国城市居民的MPC，其范围在0.130到0.144之间。一项综合异质性分析表明，财富较低、已婚、健康状况较差、受教育程度较高、有子女、非移民身份或拥有住房的人往往具有较高的mpc。将2014年户籍改革作为政策冲击，我们使用CHFS来估计其对货币政策委员会的影响。差异中差异分析结果显示，改革显著提高了城镇居民的MPC。我们发现户籍改革后农民工的涌入提高了城市房价，通过财富效应增加了房主的债务水平，减少了他们的流动资产，最终提高了他们的边际消费倾向。

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引用次数: 0

A proposed tax reform for China: Enhancing consumption and pension sustainability 中国税制改革建议：提高消费和养老金的可持续性

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102481

Zhaoyong Chen , David Leung , Joseph Mai

This study examines the long-run effects of a proposed tax reform in China that shifts the burden from income taxes to consumption taxes, addressing the dual challenges of an aging population and low household consumption. Using a heterogeneous-agent overlapping generations (OLG) model with earnings and health risks, we evaluate the tax reform that reallocates fiscal burdens while accounting for marital status and gender. Our findings show that demographic aging significantly raises income and payroll tax pressures, reducing consumption and welfare. In contrast, consumption tax-based reform enhances capital accumulation, sustains pensions without raising payroll taxes, and improves welfare. The results show the value of consumption taxation in promoting fiscal sustainability and efficiency in aging societies.

本研究考察了中国拟议的税制改革的长期影响，该改革将负担从所得税转移到消费税，以解决人口老龄化和家庭消费低的双重挑战。使用具有收入和健康风险的异质代理重叠代（OLG）模型，我们评估了在考虑婚姻状况和性别的情况下重新分配财政负担的税收改革。我们的研究结果表明，人口老龄化显著增加了收入和工资税压力，减少了消费和福利。相反，以消费税为基础的改革促进了资本积累，在不提高工资税的情况下维持了养老金，并改善了福利。结果表明，消费税在促进老龄化社会财政可持续性和效率方面的价值。

引用次数: 0

How air pollution affects innovation value in China urban area? 大气污染如何影响中国城市创新价值？

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102482

Zhuo Chen , Kunlun Wang

Most studies focus on the short-term economic consequences of air pollution, rather than its long-term impacts on urban development, such like innovation. Although a few studies have analyzed its impact on one way of inventive output–patent counts, ignoring differences in patent quality would make the findings lack economic interpretation. Therefore, this study utilizes a patent renewal model with micro-foundation to estimate the patent value by city (industry) in China. With the help of thermal inversion as an exogenous source of air pollution, our IV estimation finds that a 1% increase in air pollution leads to 1.19% decrease in patent value. Pollution damage is greater at low-to-medium level and is salient in the manufacturing sector. We also explore some mechanisms at the intensive and extensive margins, including the decline in innovation capacity, the shift to low-quality inventions, and the reduction in innovative bodies. Furthermore, we also discuss in detail why the estimated elasticity is larger than other studies, which contributes to re-evaluate the huge cost of air pollution on the economy, especially in the developing countries.

大多数研究关注的是空气污染的短期经济后果，而不是它对城市发展的长期影响，比如创新。尽管有一些研究分析了其对发明产出的一种方式——专利数量的影响，但忽视专利质量的差异会使研究结果缺乏经济解释。因此，本研究采用具有微观基础的专利更新模型对中国城市（行业）的专利价值进行估算。将热反演作为空气污染的外源，我们的IV估计发现，空气污染每增加1%，导致专利价值减少1.19%。中低水平污染损害更大，在制造业中尤为突出。在集约边际和粗放边际上探讨了创新能力下降、低质量发明转移和创新主体减少的机制。此外，我们还详细讨论了为什么估计的弹性比其他研究更大，这有助于重新评估空气污染对经济的巨大成本，特别是在发展中国家。

引用次数: 0

Social norms alleviate the disadvantaged positions of elderly people in charity markets 社会规范缓解了老年人在慈善市场中的弱势地位

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102587

Xinrui Wu , Ziming Liu , Shuyi Feng

Charitable giving is an important supplement to social insurance programs. However, potential recipients of different ages may have unequal access to charitable donations. This study uses discrete choice experiments to investigate how the age of potential recipients may affect individuals' willingness to donate, and it uses survey experiments to examine the nudge effects of social norms on individuals' preferences for donating to elderly people. The results from 1146 Chinese internet users show that a one-year increase in the age of potential recipients decreases individuals' willingness to donate by approximately 2.094 CNY. Relative to a 20-year-old potential recipient, donors' willingness to give decreases by 54.358, 98.028, and 152.862 CNY for recipients aged 45, 70, and 90, respectively. Descriptive social norms and injunctive social norms can nudge individuals' willingness to donate to elderly people, increasing the marginal willingness to pay by 1.487 and 0.803 CNY, respectively. This work documents the disadvantaged positions of elderly people in charity markets and provides insights for promoting donation to elderly people in aging societies.

慈善捐赠是对社会保险制度的重要补充。然而，不同年龄的潜在接受者获得慈善捐赠的机会可能不平等。本研究采用离散选择实验考察了潜在受赠者的年龄对个人捐赠意愿的影响，并采用调查实验考察了社会规范对个人对老年人捐赠偏好的助推效应。对1146名中国互联网用户的调查结果显示，潜在受赠人的年龄每增加一岁，个人捐赠意愿就会减少约2.094元。相对于20岁的潜在受赠人，45岁、70岁和90岁受赠人的捐赠意愿分别下降了54.358元、98.028元和152.862元。描述性社会规范和禁令性社会规范可以推动个体对老年人的捐赠意愿，边际支付意愿分别增加1.487元和0.803元。这项工作记录了老年人在慈善市场中的弱势地位，为在老龄化社会中促进对老年人的捐赠提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Long-term care insurance policy and the development of elderly care enterprises in China 长期护理保险政策与中国养老企业的发展

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102564

Tianli Yang , Zhong Zhao

This paper examines the effect of Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) policy on the development of elderly care enterprises in China. Exploiting a policy shock and employing a difference-in-differences design, we find that the implementation of LTCI policy significantly promotes the number of new entries and survival rate of elderly care enterprises, particularly for individual businesses, enterprises in health and social work industry, and those located in eastern region. Notably, service-only LTCI policy exhibits a stronger effect on the development of elderly care enterprises than the policy combining service and cash benefits. Mechanism analysis suggests that LTCI stimulates market demand for formal care services and increases government expenditures on social security and healthcare, both of which drive the development of elderly care enterprises. We also find that LTCI policy boosts labor demand in the elderly care industry. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that LTCI can help address the shortage of long-term care services and enhance family welfare.

本文考察了长期护理保险政策对中国养老企业发展的影响。利用政策冲击和差异中的差异设计，我们发现LTCI政策的实施显著促进了养老企业的新入店数量和存活率，特别是个体企业、卫生和社会工作行业企业以及东部地区的企业。值得注意的是，纯服务LTCI政策对养老企业发展的影响要强于服务与现金福利相结合的政策。机制分析表明，LTCI刺激了市场对正规养老服务的需求，增加了政府在社会保障和医疗保健方面的支出，这两者都推动了养老企业的发展。我们还发现LTCI政策促进了养老行业的劳动力需求。总体而言，我们的实证研究结果表明，LTCI有助于解决长期护理服务的短缺问题，并提高家庭福利。

引用次数: 0

The effect of family size on intergenerational support for elderly parents and their life expectancy: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign 家庭规模对老年父母代际赡养及其预期寿命的影响：来自中国“晚、长、少”运动的证据

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102528

Cynthia Bansak , Eva Dziadula , Sophie Xuefei Wang

This study documents increased life expectancy among elderly parents in China whose adult children were exposed to the “Later, Longer, Fewer” (LLF) family planning campaign in the 1970s. We leverage the variation in policy exposure at the province, urban, and birth-cohort level to understand the extent to which the LLF campaign has affected social networks and intergenerational support for elderly parents. The plausible channels that may impact life expectancy are living arrangements, visits, and financial transfers. Using the 2011 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we identify adults of childbearing age who were exposed to the LLF campaign and whose fertility was reduced. We find that greater LLF exposure increases the likelihood of the wife’s parents co-residing in her household. The increase in elderly support, however, is largely manifested through more visits and financial transfers from their sons’ families, which is unsurprising in a patrilineal society. Most gains are driven by rural households.

本研究记录了20世纪70年代中国实行“晚、长、少”（LLF）计划生育运动后，中国老年父母的预期寿命增加。我们利用省、城市和出生队列水平的政策暴露变化来了解LLF运动对社会网络和对老年父母的代际支持的影响程度。可能影响预期寿命的合理渠道是生活安排、访问和财政转移。利用2011年中国健康与退休纵向研究，我们确定了暴露于LLF运动的育龄成年人，其生育能力降低。我们发现，更大的LLF暴露增加了妻子的父母共同居住在她的家庭的可能性。然而，老年人赡养的增加主要体现在更多的探望和儿子家庭的经济转移上，这在父系社会中并不奇怪。大部分收益是由农村家庭推动的。

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引用次数: 0

Financial liberalization and capital allocation in China 中国的金融自由化与资本配置

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102503

Zhewei Zhang , Zhiwei Xu , Fangxing Zhou

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the consequences of capital account liberalization on China’s real economy and capital allocations when economic uncertainty surges. We construct a heterogeneous-agent open economy dynamic general equilibrium model featuring financially constrained households and multiple types of saving instruments, including housing assets and foreign assets. Capital account liberalization offers China’s domestic households more options for purchasing foreign assets as an alternative saving instrument, enhancing consumption-smoothing capacities and mitigating the crowding-out effect of the housing sector on the real economy. The quantitative analysis further indicates that in the short run, the reduced investment demand for housing assets caused by financial liberalization leads to more capital being allocated to the domestic real sector, and in the long run, a trade-off exists between smoothing consumption and promoting output. When uncertainty increases, capital account liberalization can improve social welfare and facilitate capital flows from the housing sector to the real sector.

本文的目的是定量评估当经济不确定性激增时，资本账户自由化对中国实体经济和资本配置的影响。本文构建了一个具有财务约束家庭和多种储蓄工具（包括住房资产和外国资产）的异构主体开放经济动态一般均衡模型。资本账户自由化为中国家庭购买外国资产提供了更多选择，作为另一种储蓄工具，增强了消费平滑能力，缓解了房地产部门对实体经济的挤出效应。定量分析进一步表明，在短期内，金融自由化导致的住房资产投资需求减少导致更多的资本被配置到国内实体部门，在长期内，平滑消费和促进产出之间存在权衡关系。当不确定性增加时，资本账户自由化可以改善社会福利，促进资本从住房部门流向实体部门。

引用次数: 0

The border effect of industrial development in China 中国工业发展的边界效应

IF 5.5 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102571

Siru Chen , Guangjun Shen , Li Zhang

Administrative divisions significantly influence China's economic integration and industrial layout. This study documents a stylized fact of land allocation in China: the less-developed cities are inclined to lease industrial land near their border with more-developed cities. We call it the “border effect.” Using detailed information on over a million transactions of land plots, we construct a city-level panel dataset spanning from 2007 to 2019 to explore the border effect. The empirical analysis shows that a city leases 1.49 percentage points more industrial land near its border with a more-developed city on average, as compared with its border with a less-developed city. The border effect is robust to alternative measures and various specifications, and more profound for cities left behind their adjacent cities by a wide margin. Mechanism analysis reveals that the land constraint of more-developed cities and their strategic land-use expansion to less-developed neighbors are the main causes of the border effect.

行政区划对中国经济一体化和产业布局具有显著影响。本研究记录了中国土地分配的一个风格化事实：欠发达城市倾向于租赁与较发达城市接壤的工业用地。我们称之为“边界效应”。利用超过一百万宗土地交易的详细信息，我们构建了2007年至2019年的城市级面板数据集，以探索边界效应。实证分析表明，与欠发达城市相比，一个城市在其与较发达城市边界附近的工业用地租赁平均高出1.49个百分点。边界效应对替代措施和各种规格都很强大，对远远落后于邻近城市的城市来说更为深刻。机制分析表明，较发达城市的土地约束和向欠发达城市的战略性用地扩张是边界效应产生的主要原因。

引用次数: 0

The impact of health insurance on informal care: Evidence from China's urban-rural basic health insurance consolidation 医疗保险对非正式护理的影响：来自中国城乡基本医疗保险整合的证据

IF 5.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

中国经济评论

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-07-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102514

Zhuang Hao, Renxin Bian, Yuze Wang

This paper examines the interaction between health insurance and informal care, two critical inputs into elderly health. Exploiting variations in timing and cities of the gradual implementation of China's consolidation of urban-rural basic health insurance that largely benefits rural residents, we find that insurance consolidation significantly increases both the likelihood and intensity of informal care received by the elderly. The positive effects are particularly salient among the older, less healthy, low-income, and educated elderly who tend to be more responsive to enhanced insurance benefits. We provide suggestive evidence that the increased care burden is primarily taken on by children. Moreover, we test two potential mechanisms through which insurance consolidation may increase informal care received by the elderly. Our findings suggest that enhanced insurance is positively associated with increased health care utilization by informal care recipients and improved health status of caregivers, both of which may contribute to the observed increase in informal care. These results offer an additional explanation for the growing demand for informal care in the rapidly aging society.

本文考察了健康保险和非正式护理之间的相互作用，这是老年人健康的两个关键投入。我们利用城乡基本医疗保险整合逐步实施的时间和城市差异，发现城乡基本医疗保险整合显著增加了老年人接受非正式护理的可能性和强度。这种积极影响在年龄较大、健康状况较差、低收入和受过教育的老年人中尤为突出，他们往往对增加的保险福利反应更积极。我们提供的证据表明，增加的照顾负担主要是由儿童承担的。此外，我们测试了两种潜在的机制，通过保险合并可能增加老年人接受的非正式护理。我们的研究结果表明，加强保险与非正式护理接受者的医疗保健利用增加和护理者的健康状况改善呈正相关，这两者都可能有助于观察到的非正式护理的增加。这些结果为快速老龄化社会中对非正式护理需求的增长提供了额外的解释。

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