Political Psychology最新文献

英文中文

Projection in Politicians' Perceptions of Public Opinion 政治家对公众舆论感知的投射

1区社会学 Q1 Arts and Humanities

Political Psychology

Pub Date : 2023-05-29 DOI: 10.1111/pops.12900

Julie Sevenans, Stefaan Walgrave, Arno Jansen, Karolin Soontjens, Nathalie Brack, Stefanie Bailer

Research has shown that politicians' perceptions of public opinion are subject to social projection. When estimating the opinions of voters on a broad range of issues, politicians tend to assume that their own preferences are shared by voters. This article revisits this finding and adds to the literature in three ways. First, it makes a conceptual contribution by bringing together different approaches to the analysis of projection and its consequences. Second, relying on data from surveys with politicians ( n = 866) in four countries (Belgium, Canada, Germany, and Switzerland) conducted between March 2018 and September 2019, it shows that there is more projection in politicians' estimations of their partisan electorate than in their estimations of the general public or of their geographic district. Third, comparing the data on politician projection with data from parallel surveys with citizens, the article reveals that—at least in three out of the four countries studied here—elected politicians are not better at avoiding erroneous projection than ordinary citizens. The article discusses the implications of these findings for the workings of representative democracy.

研究表明，政治家对公众舆论的看法受到社会投射的影响。在估计选民对一系列广泛问题的看法时，政治家倾向于假设选民和他们有共同的偏好。本文重新审视了这一发现，并从三个方面对文献进行了补充。首先，它通过汇集不同的方法来分析投影及其后果，从而做出了概念上的贡献。其次，根据2018年3月至2019年9月期间对四个国家(比利时、加拿大、德国和瑞士)的政治家(n = 866)进行的调查数据，它表明政治家对其党派选民的估计比他们对普通公众或其地理区域的估计有更多的预测。第三，将政治家预测的数据与对公民的平行调查的数据进行比较，文章揭示出——至少在这里研究的四个国家中，有三个国家——当选的政治家并不比普通公民更善于避免错误的预测。本文讨论了这些发现对代议制民主运作的影响。

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