Journal of Urban Economics最新文献

Do standardized test scores in a community indicate whether schools there are effective at producing human capital? Counties with high average test scores produce high-earning adults. But, using data from North Carolina, we find that counties’ effects on test scores are uncorrelated with their effects on income in adulthood. We argue that this is probably because the inputs directly responsible for counties’ effects on test scores do not substantially increase income. In particular, we find that differences in test score production have little to do with teacher quality. Our results suggest that differences in test score production across places are not necessarily a useful measure of the quality of schools.

The rapid growth of e-commerce is widely blamed for job losses in brick-and-mortar retail. Using geographic variations in online spending, constructed from over 30 billion credit card transactions in Korea, we examine the causal effect of e-commerce on local retail employment. We find that the rise in the share of online spending from 2010 to 2015 decreased county-level retail employment by about 4.9 percent. We also find that employment shifted from offline retail to other local businesses, such as restaurants and personal services. However, the shift in employment was confined to metropolitan areas, falling far short of offsetting employment losses in non-metropolitan areas. Our finding suggests that a Retail Job Apocalypse is likely in certain local labor markets (i.e., non-metropolitan areas).

The majority of U.S. households that qualify for federal rental housing assistance do not receive it. In the absence of an entitlement to housing assistance, an underexplored cause of the shortfall is that higher rents in some areas driven by supply-constraining local regulations increase program costs, leaving fewer funds available to serve additional families. In this paper, we simulate the effect of increasing housing supply on the cost of Section 8 housing assistance programs in Los Angeles, as well as all 11 metropolitan areas most constrained by local regulations. If Los Angeles (all 11 metropolitan areas) produced new housing units at the same rate as the 90th percentile metropolitan area for a decade, market rents would fall by 18.1 percent (2.0 to 24.0 percent), and federal cost savings would equal $353 million ($1.8 billion), enough to increase the number of assisted families by 23.8 percent (18.6 percent). For comparison, doubling the number of units placed in service through the Low Income Housing Tax Credit for a decade—an alternative method for increasing housing supply—would lead to much lower cost savings of $18 million in Los Angeles, and $231 million across all 11 metropolitan areas.

Fundamental questions about the size and characteristics of the homeless population are unresolved because it is unclear whether existing data are sufficiently complete and reliable. We examine these questions and the coverage of new microdata sources that are designed to be nationally representative. We compare two restricted data sources largely unused to study homelessness, the 2010 Census and American Community Survey (ACS), to restricted Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) data, HUD's public-use point-in-time (PIT) estimates, and the Housing Inventory Count (HIC) at the national and individual level. We also develop a new approach to estimating the size of the sheltered homeless population using linked Census and HMIS microdata. Our analyses suggest that on a given night there are about 400,000 people experiencing homelessness in shelters in the U.S. and about 200,000 people sleeping on the streets, with this latter estimate subject to greater uncertainty. More than 90 percent of those in shelters appear to be counted in the Census, although many are classified as housed or in other group quarters, due largely to ambiguity in the definition of a homeless shelter. This paper lays the foundation for pathbreaking future work with these data on the U.S. homeless population.

There is a growing debate about whether upzoning is an effective policy response to housing shortages and unaffordable housing. This paper provides empirical evidence to further inform debate by examining the various impacts of recently implemented zoning reforms on housing construction in Auckland, the largest metropolitan area in New Zealand. In 2016, the city upzoned approximately three quarters of its residential land to facilitate construction of more intensive housing. We use a quasi-experimental approach to analyze the short-run impacts of the reform on construction, allowing for potential shifts in construction from non-upzoned to upzoned areas (displacement effects) that would, if unaccounted for, lead to an overestimation of treatment effects. We find strong evidence that upzoning stimulated construction. Treatment effects remain statistically significant even under implausibly large displacement effects that would necessitate more than a four-fold increase in the trend rate of construction in control areas under the counterfactual of no-upzoning. Our findings support the argument that upzoning can stimulate housing supply and suggest that further work to identify factors that mediate the efficacy of upzoning in achieving wider objectives of the policy would assist policymakers in the design of zoning reforms in the future.

Both large establishments and large cities are known to offer workers an earnings premium. In this paper, we show that these two premia are closely linked by documenting a new fact: when workers move to a large city, they also move to larger establishments. We then ask how much of the city-size earnings premium can be attributed to transitions to larger and better-paying establishments. Using administrative data from Spain, we find that 38 percent of the city-size earnings premium can be explained by establishment-size composition. Most of the gains from the transition to larger establishments realize in the short-term upon moving to the large city. Establishment size explains 29 percent of the short-term gains, but only 5 percent of the medium-term gains that accrue as workers gain experience in the large city. The small contribution to the medium-term gains is due to two facts: first, within large cities workers transition to large establishments only slightly faster than in smaller cities; second, the relationship between earnings and establishment size is weaker in large cities.

Based on the fiscal regime that prevailed in Argentina from 1988 to 2003, we estimate the effects of changes in intergovernmental transfers and hydrocarbon royalties on provincial public consumption and debt. Whenever intergovernmental transfers increase, all provinces primarily increase public consumption and, to a lesser extent, decrease their debt. However, when hydrocarbon-producing provinces experienced an increase in royalties, they saved the entire increase. We provide evidence that the exhaustible nature of royalties may explain this saving reaction in hydrocarbon-producing provinces.

This study explores the influence of a regulation of informal school choice on the housing market in Shanghai to estimate the significance of loopholes in the school district system. The policy limited the priority for enrollment in a public elementary schools given to house owners in the school's district so that each housing property is given only one priority every five years; hence, informal acquisition of priorities through frequent resale of houses is limited. From the dataset of individual housing prices in Shanghai, we show that house price within the school districts of good schools increases after the policy. In contrast, house price decreases in areas that are neighboring the school but outside its school district because they are called “babysitting communities” and provide houses to live in for households who resell their houses earlier than graduation of their children. We also implement event study analysis to estimate time-varying influences of the policy, to show that the significant price increase occurs immediately after the policy implementation and shrinks a little in the short run.

We study the effect of Opportunity Zones (OZs) on job postings using data comprising the near-universe of U.S. online job postings. The OZs program grants tax breaks for investment in designated distressed communities, nominated by each state’s governor based on multiple factors. We use propensity score matching to account for those factors and a difference-in-differences model over the matched sample to estimate the effect of the program. We find limited evidence of any effect of OZs on job postings on average, although we do find small positive effects in urban areas, in areas with above median Black population, and in some states.

Does growing up in a high-economic adversity area matter for individual economic, cultural, and political views? Despite a significant focus upon the effect of birthplace on economic outcomes, there is less evidence on how local economic conditions at birth shape individual attitudes over the long-term. This paper links the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) from English and Welsh respondents with historic localised information on unemployment, our measure of economic adversity. Our results, which control for composition effects, family background, and sorting of people across places, show that being born into a high-unemployment Local Authority has a significant, long-term impact on individuals. Birthplace matters beyond economic outcomes, as being born into a Local Authority of high unemployment makes individuals believe in more government intervention in jobs, less progressive on gender issues, and less likely to support the Conservative Party.