European Economic Review最新文献

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Growth and adaptation to climate change in the long run

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104982

Simon Dietz , Bruno Lanz

As the climate is changing, the global economy is adapting. This paper describes a novel method of estimating climate adaptation globally. We quantify how much the global economy has adapted to climate change historically, how much it has cost, and how much it has reduced the direct impacts of climate change. The method is based on a structurally estimated model of long-run growth, which identifies how changes in consumption, fertility, innovation, and land use allow the economy to adapt to climate change. Agriculture plays a key role, because it is vulnerable to climate change and food cannot be perfectly substituted. We estimate that adaptation has been highly effective in reducing negative climate impacts on agricultural production. However, the cost of adaptation has been a reallocation of resources out of the rest of the economy, which has in effect slowed down the process of structural change out of agriculture into manufacturing and services. We also use the model to estimate optimal future carbon taxation. Because adaptation is effective but costly, reducing future greenhouse gas emissions would improve welfare substantially.

引用次数: 0

Monetary–fiscal interaction and the liquidity of government debt

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104979

Cristiano Cantore , Edoardo Leonardi

How does the monetary and fiscal policy mix alter households’ saving incentives? To answer these questions, we build a heterogeneous agents New Keynesian model where three different types of agents can save in assets with different liquidity profiles to insure against idiosyncratic risk. Policy mixes affect saving incentives differently according to their effect on the liquidity premium- the return difference between less liquid assets and public debt. We derive an intuitive analytical expression linking the liquidity premium with consumption differentials amongst different types of agents. This underscores the presence of a transmission mechanism through which the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy shapes economic stability via its effect on the portfolio choice of private agents. We call it the self-insurance demand channel, which moves the liquidity premium in the opposite direction to the standard policy-driven supply channel. Our analysis thus reveals the presence of two competing forces driving the liquidity premium. We show that the relative strength of the two is tightly linked to the policy mix in place and the type of business cycle shock hitting the economy. This implies that to stabilize the economy, monetary policy should consider the impact of the self-insurance on the liquidity premium.

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引用次数: 0

Market competition and the adoption of clean technology: Evidence from the taxi industry

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104967

Raúl Bajo-Buenestado , Miguel Ángel Borrella-Mas

Environmental policies may be ineffective when firms lack incentives to adopt cleaner technologies due to their market power. This paper examines whether a competition shock in a concentrated industry can stimulate the adoption of policy-favored cleaner technologies. Using a unique panel dataset covering the universe of vehicles purchased by taxi drivers in Spain, we exploit the entry of ride-hailing platforms as a natural experiment to identify the impact on their vehicle choices. We find that increased competition led to a 30% surge in the adoption of electric-powered vehicles among taxi drivers. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest an overall reduction in CO2 emissions, highlighting the potential of competition policy to promote environmental sustainability while mitigating market power.

引用次数: 0

Disinformation for hire: A field experiment on unethical jobs in online labor markets

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104936

Alain Cohn , Jan Stoop

The spread of misinformation has been linked to increased social divisions and adverse health outcomes, but less is known about the production of disinformation, which is misinformation intended to mislead. In a field experiment on MTurk (N = 1,197), we found that while 70 % of workers accepted a control job, 61 % accepted a disinformation job requiring them to manipulate COVID-19 data. To quantify the trade-off between ethical and financial considerations in job acceptance, we introduced a lower-pay condition offering half the wage of the control job; 51 % of workers accepted this job, suggesting that the ethical compromise in the disinformation task reduced the acceptance rate by about the same amount as a 25 % wage reduction. A survey experiment with a nationally representative sample shows that viewing a disinformation graph from the field experiment negatively affected people's beliefs and behavioral intentions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including increased vaccine hesitancy. Using a “wisdom-of-crowds” approach, we highlight how online labor markets can introduce features, such as increased worker accountability, to reduce the likelihood of workers engaging in the production of disinformation. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing the supply side of disinformation in online labor markets to mitigate its harmful societal effects.

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引用次数: 0

Cousins from overseas: How the existing workforce adapts to a massive forced return migration shock

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104925

Lara Bohnet , Susana Peralta , João Pereira dos Santos

The 1975 eruption of Civil Wars in Portuguese-speaking Africa sparked the return of half a million retornados to Portugal. We use census data from 1960 and 1981 to study the impacts of this massive influx of workers on the existing workforce. We observe gendered effects in natives’ labour market outcomes: male and female natives leave dependent employment. We find robust evidence of females moving to inactivity, and suggestive evidence that males move into self-employment. The effects are driven by the repatriates who are Portuguese-born. The identification strategy exploits the repatriates’ municipality of birth and a large-scale resettlement program relying on hotel capacity.

引用次数: 0

Carbon taxation in a global production network

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104938

Jordi Planelles , María-Eugenia Sanin

Herein we study carbon taxation considering the structure of the global production network. With this purpose we characterize how the implementation of a carbon tax in one country-sector can generate sizeable fluctuations on global emissions and welfare through its impact on the structure of production. We then apply this theoretical characterization to accommodate the structure of a multi-regional input–output database. This framework allows us to identify the country-sectors that should be taxed to reach the strongest potential for emission reduction (or welfare maximization) if no coordinated policy is possible. Interestingly, this choice not only depends on emission intensity but also on to which extent the sector is central in the global production network as well as on the pass-through effect on public or private spending. Additionally, we find that synergies between taxes applied to different country-sectors have a strong impact in emission reductions, calling for greater harmonization in carbon taxation around the world. We then use our model to simulate the impact of the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) finding that, when looked into sector by sector, it reduces EU competitiveness loss due to carbon pricing but, when generalized to all EU sectors, the impact through the value chain ends up provoking a stronger contraction in the EU than without the CBAM.

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引用次数: 0

Decentralization in Autocraties

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104930

Emmanuelle Auriol , Anaïs Dahmani-Scuitti

In a model featuring two regions—one affluent and the other impoverished—the allocation of public spending is examined under an initially centralized and autocratic political process. In a stable autocracy, the decision to implement decentralization reforms hinges on a tradeoff: while centralization enables the autocrat to extract higher rents, it also results in reduced productivity in the poor region. The autocrat opts for decentralization when the negative impact on productivity outweighs the benefits of rent extraction. Moreover, under the pressure of democratic movements and growing instability, an authoritarian regime may also pursue decentralization reforms to preserve its wealth from the decisions of the poor median voter.

引用次数: 0

Internetization, supplier search, and diversification of global supply chains

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.104951

Guobing Shen , Binchao Shen , Ruochen Wu

Diversifying global supply chains (GSCs) is a vital approach to improving economic resilience. When firms diversify their foreign suppliers, information frictions are a major challenge. Internetization may mitigate this challenge through more efficient information communication. We estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of the search for new suppliers under information frictions, allowing the level of internetization to influence search costs as well as productivity. Using data from Chinese manufacturing firms, internetization is found to relieve information frictions, reducing search costs by RMB 0.3 – 0.5 million. Additionally, internetization raises firms’ productivity by 0.8%. The quantitative analysis indicates that internetization and search decisions of firms are mutually reinforcing. By facilitating the search for foreign suppliers, internetization promotes the diversification of GSCs and strengthens the resilience of firms. Notably, the primary channel through which internetization exerts its impact is by reducing search costs, whereas the productivity channel plays a relatively minor role.

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引用次数: 0

Long shadow of the U.S. mortgage expansion: Evidence from local labour markets

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104931

Aruni Mitra , Mengying Wei

We construct U.S. county-level credit supply shocks by interacting the national mortgage growth of lenders in the early 2000s with a county’s initial exposure to those lenders. Counties with a more expansionary credit shock experienced a greater housing boom between 2003 and 2006 without a positive spillover to local labour market performance. During the Great Recession, the same counties experienced a larger drop in growth rates of mortgages, house prices and wages, and a larger increase in unemployment rates. While unemployment rates declined faster in those areas after the recession, wage growth remained depressed. The credit shock also induced a long-run increase in older firms’ employment share, suggesting a reduction in business dynamism.

引用次数: 0

Populism’s original sin: Short-term populist penalties and uncertainty traps

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

European Economic Review

Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104917

L. Guillermo Woo-Mora

This paper investigates the immediate economic impacts of populist policies. In 2018, the Mexican president-elect held an unofficial referendum with less than 1% turnout to halt the construction of Mexico City’s New International Airport. I show the policy is plausibly a natural experiment with nationwide impacts, preceding other macroeconomic shocks and populist policies dismantling economic and institutional checks. Using the synthetic control method, I find a 3.3% to 4.5% GDP reduction one year post-cancellation. Consistent with the uncertainty trap framework, this decline is due to heightened economic uncertainty and a significant drop in investment, reinforcing each other and leading to a prolonged economic downturn. The results highlight how populist policies can impose immediate economic costs by creating uncertainty traps, even before implementing institutional changes.

引用次数: 0

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