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A field study of donor behaviour in the Iranian kidney market 对伊朗肾脏市场捐赠者行为的实地研究
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104887
Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi , Daniel Sgroi
Iran has the world’s only government-regulated kidney market. We report the results of the first field study of donor behaviour in this unusual market. Participants have lower risk tolerance and higher patience levels than the Iranian average but display no difference in rationality from population averages and there is evidence of altruism among participants. We provide an examination of decision-making in extreme situations by individuals in this market, typically at the very bottom of the income distribution, and shed light on the sort of people likely to participate if other nations were to operate such markets.
伊朗拥有世界上唯一一个由政府监管的肾脏市场。我们报告了在这个不寻常的市场中对捐赠者行为的首次实地研究结果。与伊朗的平均水平相比,参与者的风险承受能力较低,耐心水平较高,但在理性方面与人口平均水平没有差异,而且有证据表明参与者中存在利他主义。我们研究了该市场中的个人(通常处于收入分配的最底层)在极端情况下的决策,并揭示了如果其他国家运营此类市场,有可能参与的人群类型。
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引用次数: 0
On political ambiguity and anti-median platforms 关于政治模糊性和反中庸平台
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104884
Juha Tolvanen
This paper constructs a new, information-based explanation for political ambiguity and the success of anti-median platforms. It argues that voters’ and candidates’ correlated preferences about the appropriate policy combined with ambiguous platforms can help candidates with non-median preferences increase their support and even win against a median candidate. I show how ambiguity can arise in a standard citizen-candidate setting where voters have different preferences, in its extension with primaries, and even in a Condorcet jury model where disagreement arises only from differences in voters’ information. The paper also offers a formal framework that allows for dog whistle politics. The model illustrates how ambiguity can have important negative welfare implications. Specifically, I show that despite having ex-ante identical preferences with voters, politicians may choose ambiguous platforms even if voters would be keen on banning them.
本文为政治模糊性和反中庸政纲的成功构建了一种新的、基于信息的解释。本文认为,选民和候选人对适当政策的相关偏好与模棱两可的政纲相结合,可以帮助非中位数偏好的候选人增加支持率,甚至战胜中位数候选人。我展示了模糊性是如何在选民有不同偏好的标准公民-候选人环境中、在初选的扩展环境中,甚至在仅因选民信息差异而产生分歧的康多塞特陪审团模型中产生的。本文还提供了一个允许狗哨政治的正式框架。该模型说明了模糊性如何对福利产生重要的负面影响。具体来说,我表明,尽管政治家与选民的事前偏好相同,但他们可能会选择模棱两可的政纲,即使选民会热衷于禁止这些政纲。
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引用次数: 0
Robots, occupations, and worker age: A production-unit analysis of employment 机器人、职业和工人年龄:就业的生产单位分析
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104881
Liuchun Deng , Steffen Müller , Verena Plümpe , Jens Stegmaier
We analyze the impact of robot adoption on employment composition using novel micro data on robot use of German manufacturing plants linked with social security records and data on job tasks. Our task-based model predicts more favorable employment effects for the least routine-task intensive occupations and for young workers, the latter being better at adapting to change. An event-study analysis for robot adoption confirms both predictions. We do not find decreasing employment for any occupational or age group but churning among low-skilled workers rises sharply. We conclude that the displacement effect of robots is occupation-biased but age neutral whereas the reinstatement effect is age-biased and benefits young workers most.
我们利用与社保记录和工作任务数据相关联的德国制造工厂机器人使用情况的新型微观数据,分析了采用机器人对就业构成的影响。根据我们基于任务的模型预测,对常规任务密集度最低的职业和年轻工人的就业影响更大,因为后者更善于适应变化。对机器人应用的事件研究分析证实了这两个预测。我们没有发现任何职业或年龄组的就业率下降,但低技能工人的流失率急剧上升。我们的结论是,机器人的替代效应与职业有关,但与年龄无关,而恢复效应则与年龄有关,年轻工人受益最大。
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引用次数: 0
Active or passive? Revisiting the role of fiscal policy during high inflation 主动还是被动?重新审视财政政策在高通胀时期的作用
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104874
Stephanie Ettmeier , Alexander Kriwoluzky
We investigate the interplay of the monetary–fiscal policy mix during times of crisis by drawing insights from the Great Inflation of the 1960s and 1970s. We use a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to estimate a DSGE model with three distinct monetary/fiscal policy regimes. We show that, in such a model, SMC outperforms standard sampling algorithms because it is better suited to deal with multimodal posteriors, an outcome that is highly likely in a DSGE model with monetary–fiscal policy interactions. From the estimation with SMC, a differentiated perspective results: pre-Volcker macroeconomic dynamics were similarly driven by passive monetary/passive fiscal policy and fiscal dominance. We apply these insights to study the post-pandemic inflation period.
我们从 20 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代的大通胀中汲取灵感,研究了危机时期货币与财政政策组合的相互作用。我们使用序列蒙特卡罗(SMC)算法来估计一个具有三种不同货币/财政政策制度的 DSGE 模型。我们的研究表明,在这样的模型中,SMC 优于标准抽样算法,因为它更适合处理多模态后验,而这种结果在货币与财政政策相互作用的 DSGE 模型中是极有可能出现的。通过使用 SMC 进行估计,我们得出了一个不同的视角:沃尔克法案前的宏观经济动态同样受到被动货币/被动财政政策和财政主导地位的驱动。我们将这些见解用于研究大流行后的通货膨胀时期。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate finance, collateralized borrowing, and monetary policy 企业融资、抵押借款和货币政策
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104878
Yu-Chen Liu , Yiting Li
We construct a monetary model in which entrepreneurs facing uncertainty in input costs and returns of projects may finance investment internally and with bank credit. Entrepreneurs using money as a down payment and bonds as collateral can reduce the default probability. Working through these key channels, lower nominal policy rates and open market sales can reduce the real lending rate. The central bank’s private asset purchases improve availability of credit and compress risk spreads. Our model identifies the risk-reducing channel of private asset purchases—the policy functions as if the government had supplied more bonds, and the increased collateralizable bonds are allocated more to corporate borrowings with a higher lending risk. Risk-retention requirements associated with asset purchases are essential to welfare. As uncertainty with respect to input costs and investment returns intensifies, the central bank should lower the optimal risk-retention rate to encourage lending and reduce business failures.
我们构建了一个货币模型,在该模型中,企业家面对项目投入成本和回报的不确定性,可以通过内部融资和银行信贷为投资提供资金。企业家用货币作为首付款,用债券作为抵押,可以降低违约概率。通过这些关键渠道,较低的名义政策利率和公开市场销售可以降低实际贷款利率。中央银行的私人资产购买可以改善信贷供应并压缩风险利差。我们的模型确定了私人资产购买的风险降低渠道--政策的作用就好像政府提供了更多的债券,增加的可抵押债券更多地被分配给贷款风险较高的企业借款。与资产购买相关的风险保留要求对福利至关重要。随着投入成本和投资回报的不确定性加剧,中央银行应降低最佳风险保留率,以鼓励借贷并减少企业倒闭。
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引用次数: 0
The bright side of the doom loop: Banks’ sovereign exposure and default incentives 厄运循环的光明面:银行的主权风险敞口与违约诱因
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104876
Luis E. Rojas , Dominik Thaler
The feedback loop between sovereign and financial sector insolvency, termed the “doom loop”, was a key driver of the European debt crisis and motivated an array of policy proposals. This paper revisits the “doom loop” focusing on governments’ incentives to default. We introduce a 3-period model with strategic sovereign default, where debt is held by both domestic banks and foreign investors. The government maximizes domestic welfare; thus, the temptation to default increases with externally-held debt. Importantly, the cost of default arises endogenously from the damage that default causes to domestic banks’ balance sheets. Domestically-held debt thus serves as a commitment device for the government. We show that two prominent policy prescriptions – lower exposure of domestic banks to domestic sovereign debt or a commitment not to bailout banks – can backfire, since default incentives depend not only on the quantity of debt, but also on who holds it. Conversely, allowing domestic banks to buy additional domestic sovereign debt during times of sovereign distress can avert the doom loop. In the context of a monetary union similar unintended negative consequences may arise from a backstop by the central bank (e.g., the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument) if imprecisely calibrated or the pooling of debt (e.g., European safe bond, also known as ESBies).
主权和金融部门破产之间的反馈循环被称为 "厄运循环",它是欧洲债务危机的主要驱动因素,也是一系列政策建议的动机。本文重新审视了 "厄运循环",重点关注政府违约的动机。我们引入了一个包含战略性主权违约的三期模型,其中债务由国内银行和外国投资者共同持有。政府追求国内福利最大化;因此,违约的诱惑会随着外部持有债务的增加而增加。重要的是,违约成本内生于违约对国内银行资产负债表造成的损害。因此,国内持有的债务是政府的一种承诺手段。我们的研究表明,两个著名的政策处方--降低国内银行对国内主权债务的风险敞口或承诺不救助银行--可能会适得其反,因为违约诱因不仅取决于债务数量,还取决于债务的持有者。相反,允许国内银行在主权债务危机时购买更多的国内主权债务,则可以避免厄运循环。在货币联盟的背景下,如果中央银行的支持措施(如欧洲央行的 "传输保护工具")或债务池(如欧洲安全债券,又称 ESBies)的校准不精确,可能会产生类似的意外负面后果。
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引用次数: 0
Energy shocks as Keynesian supply shocks: Implications for fiscal policy 作为凯恩斯供应冲击的能源冲击:对财政政策的影响
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104875
Enisse Kharroubi , Frank Smets
This paper analyses the economic impact of and the optimal policy response to energy supply shocks in a flexible price model with heterogeneous households. We introduce energy as a consumption good on the demand side and as an input to production on the supply side. A distinguishing feature is that, in line with empirical evidence, we allow households’ energy demand to be non-homothetic. The model provides three main insights. First, (negative) energy supply shocks act as a (negative) demand shocks, or Keynesian supply shocks, when two conditions are met: On the demand side household income inequality needs to be large, while on the supply side, the price elasticity of consumption goods needs to be high. Second, the social planner can implement the first-best allocation by subsidising firms and poor households while taxing rich households. Energy shocks then act as standard supply shocks. Last, issuing public debt can help implement the first best allocation when energy shocks are large and/or the economy’s overall energy intensity is low.
本文在一个具有异质性家庭的灵活价格模型中,分析了能源供应冲击的经济影响和最优对策。我们将能源作为需求方的消费品和供应方的生产投入品。一个显著特点是,根据经验证据,我们允许家庭的能源需求是非同调的。该模型提供了三大启示。首先,在满足两个条件的情况下,(负)能源供应冲击可作为(负)需求冲击或凯恩斯供应冲击:在需求方面,家庭收入不平等必须很大,而在供给方面,消费品的价格弹性必须很高。其次,社会规划者可以通过补贴企业和贫困家庭,同时对富裕家庭征税来实现最优分配。这样,能源冲击就可以充当标准供给冲击。最后,当能源冲击较大和/或经济的总体能源强度较低时,发行公债有助于实现第一最优配置。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon taxes and tariffs, financial frictions, and international spillovers 碳税和关税、金融摩擦和国际溢出效应
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104883
Stefano Carattini , Giseong Kim , Givi Melkadze , Aude Pommeret
Ambitious climate policy, coupled with financial frictions, has the potential to create macrofinancial stability risk. Such stability risk may expand beyond the economy implementing climate policy, potentially catching other countries off guard. International spillovers may occur because of trade and financial channels. Hence, we study the design and effects of climate policies in the world economy with international trade and financial flows. We develop a two-sector, two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model with financial frictions, climate policies, including carbon tariffs, and macroprudential policies. Using the calibrated model, we evaluate spillovers from unilateral domestic carbon pricing to foreign economies and back. We also examine more ambitious climate architectures involving carbon tariffs or a global carbon price. We find that accounting for cross-border financial flows and frictions in credit markets is crucial to understand the effects of climate policies and to guide the implementation of macroprudential policies at the global scale aimed at minimizing transition risk and paving the way for ambitious climate policy.
雄心勃勃的气候政策加上金融摩擦,有可能造成宏观金融稳定风险。这种稳定风险可能会扩大到实施气候政策的经济体之外,有可能使其他国家措手不及。国际溢出效应可能会通过贸易和金融渠道产生。因此,我们研究了气候政策在国际贸易和资金流动的世界经济中的设计和影响。我们建立了一个包含金融摩擦、气候政策(包括碳关税)和宏观审慎政策的两部门、两国动态一般均衡模型。利用校准模型,我们评估了单边国内碳定价对外国经济体的溢出效应,并进行了回溯。我们还研究了涉及碳关税或全球碳价格的更雄心勃勃的气候架构。我们发现,考虑跨境资金流动和信贷市场的摩擦对于理解气候政策的影响以及在全球范围内指导宏观审慎政策的实施至关重要,这些政策旨在最大限度地降低转型风险,并为雄心勃勃的气候政策铺平道路。
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引用次数: 0
Using double-debiased machine learning to estimate the impact of Covid-19 vaccination on mortality and staff absences in elderly care homes. 使用双偏差机器学习法估算 Covid-19 疫苗接种对养老院死亡率和员工缺勤率的影响。
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104882
Sourafel Girma , David Paton
Machine learning approaches provide an alternative to traditional fixed effects estimators in causal inference. In particular, double-debiased machine learning (DDML) can control for confounders without making subjective judgements about appropriate functional forms. In this paper, we use DDML to examine the impact of differential Covid-19 vaccination rates on care home mortality and other outcomes. Our approach accommodates fixed effects to account for unobserved heterogeneity. In contrast to standard fixed effects estimates, the DDML results provide some evidence that higher vaccination take-up amongst residents, but not staff, reduced Covid mortality in elderly care homes. However, this effect was relatively small, is not robust to alternative measures of mortality and was restricted to the initial vaccination roll-out period.
在因果推断中,机器学习方法提供了一种替代传统固定效应估计法的方法。特别是,双偏差机器学习(DDML)可以控制混杂因素,而无需对适当的函数形式做出主观判断。在本文中,我们使用 DDML 来研究不同的 Covid-19 疫苗接种率对护理院死亡率和其他结果的影响。我们的方法考虑了固定效应,以解释未观察到的异质性。与标准固定效应估计结果不同的是,DDML 结果提供了一些证据,表明居民(而非员工)接种疫苗率越高,安老院的 Covid 死亡率就越低。但是,这种影响相对较小,对死亡率的其他衡量标准不具有稳健性,而且仅限于疫苗接种推广初期。
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引用次数: 0
Labour market skills, endogenous productivity and business cycles 劳动力市场技能、内生生产力和商业周期
IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104873
Mirko Abbritti , Agostino Consolo
This paper analyses how labour market heterogeneity affects unemployment, productivity and business cycle dynamics. To this aim, we set up a model with asymmetric search and matching frictions across skilled and unskilled workers, and endogenous productivity through R&D investment and intangible capital accumulation. Skill mismatch and skill-specific labour market institutions have three main effects on business cycles and growth dynamics. First, the relative scarcity of skilled workers increases the natural rate of unemployment and reduces total factor productivity with long-run effects on the growth rate of output. Second, skill heterogeneity in the labour market generates asymmetric outcomes and amplifies measures of employment, wages and consumption inequality. Finally, the model provides important insights for the Phillips and Beveridge curves. Incorporating skill heterogeneity leads to a flattening of the Phillips curve as wages and unemployment respond unevenly across skill types. Also, the model generates sideward shifts of the Beveridge curve following business cycle shocks, with the extent of these shifts depending on the degree of skill heterogeneity.
本文分析了劳动力市场的异质性如何影响失业率、生产率和商业周期动态。为此,我们建立了一个模型,该模型存在技术工人和非技术工人之间的非对称搜索和匹配摩擦,以及通过研发投资和无形资本积累产生的内生生产力。技能不匹配和特定技能的劳动力市场制度对商业周期和增长动态有三个主要影响。首先,技术工人的相对稀缺会增加自然失业率,降低全要素生产率,从而对产出增长率产生长期影响。其次,劳动力市场的技能异质性会产生非对称结果,并扩大就业、工资和消费不平等的程度。最后,该模型为菲利普斯曲线和贝弗里奇曲线提供了重要启示。纳入技能异质性会导致菲利普斯曲线变平,因为不同技能类型的工资和失业率反应不均。此外,该模型还能在商业周期冲击后产生贝弗里奇曲线的侧移,侧移的程度取决于技能异质性的程度。
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引用次数: 0
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European Economic Review
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