Journal of Monetary Economics最新文献

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The impact of AI on global knowledge work 人工智能对全球知识工作的影响

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103876

Enrique Ide, Eduard Talamàs

We analyze how Artificial Intelligence (AI) reshapes global knowledge work in a two-region world where firms organize production hierarchically to use knowledge efficiently: the most knowledgeable individuals specialize in problem-solving, while others perform routine work. Before AI, the Advanced Economy specializes in problem-solving services, whereas the Emerging Economy focuses on routine work. AI converts compute — which is located in the Advanced Economy — into autonomous “AI agents” that perfectly substitute for humans with a given level of knowledge. Basic AI reduces the Advanced Economy’s net exports of problem-solving services, potentially reversing pre-AI trade patterns. In contrast, sophisticated AI expands these exports, reinforcing existing trade patterns. Finally, we show that a global ban on AI autonomy redistributes AI’s gains toward lower-skilled workers, while a regional ban — such as prohibiting autonomy only in the Emerging Economy — offers little benefit to lower-skilled workers and harms the most knowledgeable individuals in that region.

我们分析了人工智能（AI）如何在两个地区的世界中重塑全球知识工作，在这个世界中，企业按等级组织生产以有效地利用知识：最有知识的个人专门解决问题，而其他人则从事日常工作。在人工智能出现之前，发达经济体专注于解决问题的服务，而新兴经济体则专注于日常工作。人工智能将位于发达经济体的计算机转化为自主的“人工智能代理”，完全替代具有特定知识水平的人类。基础人工智能减少了发达经济体解决问题服务的净出口，有可能逆转人工智能出现之前的贸易模式。相比之下，复杂的人工智能扩大了这些出口，强化了现有的贸易模式。最后，我们表明，对人工智能自治的全球禁令将人工智能的收益重新分配给低技能工人，而区域禁令-例如仅在新兴经济体中禁止自治-对低技能工人几乎没有好处，并且损害了该地区最有知识的个人。

引用次数: 0

The rise of AI pricing: Trends, driving forces, and implications for firm performance 人工智能定价的兴起：趋势、驱动力和对公司业绩的影响

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103875

Jonathan J. Adams , Min Fang , Zheng Liu , Yajie Wang

We document key stylized facts about the time-series trends and cross-sectional distributions of artificial intelligence (AI)-powered pricing and study its implications for firm performance, both on average and in response to monetary policy shocks. We use the online job postings data from Lightcast to measure the adoption of AI pricing. We infer that a firm is adopting AI pricing if it posts a job that requires AI-related skills and contains the keyword “pricing.” At the aggregate level, the share of AI pricing jobs in all pricing jobs has increased more than tenfold since 2010. The rise of AI pricing jobs has been broad-based, spreading across more industries than other types of AI jobs. At the firm level, larger and more productive firms are more likely to adopt AI pricing. Firms that adopted AI pricing experienced faster growth in sales, employment, assets, and markups, and their stock returns are also more responsive to high-frequency monetary policy surprises than non-adopters. We show that these empirical observations can be rationalized by a simple model where a monopolist firm with incomplete information about its demand function invests in AI pricing to acquire information.

我们记录了人工智能（AI）定价的时间序列趋势和横截面分布的关键风格化事实，并研究了其对公司业绩的影响，包括平均水平和应对货币政策冲击的影响。我们使用Lightcast的在线招聘数据来衡量人工智能定价的采用情况。我们推断，如果一家公司发布了一个需要人工智能相关技能的职位，并且包含关键词“定价”，那么它就采用了人工智能定价。总体而言，自2010年以来，人工智能定价工作在所有定价工作中所占的比例增长了10倍以上。与其他类型的人工智能工作相比，人工智能定价工作的兴起是广泛的，涉及的行业更多。在企业层面，规模更大、生产率更高的企业更有可能采用人工智能定价。采用人工智能定价的公司在销售、就业、资产和加价方面的增长更快，而且它们的股票回报对高频货币政策意外的反应也比未采用人工智能定价的公司更敏感。我们表明，这些经验观察可以通过一个简单的模型来合理化，在这个模型中，一个关于其需求函数的不完全信息的垄断企业投资于人工智能定价来获取信息。

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引用次数: 0

Lender concentration of external debts and sudden stops 贷款人外债集中而突然停止

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103874

Chun-Che Chi

This paper studies how the lender structure of external debt affects open economies’ credit conditions via a model with lenders of varying sizes. While atomistic lenders take the collateral price as given, large lenders internalize the pecuniary externality whereby selling foreclosed collateral injects supply and reduces its price. Thus, concentrating external debt in a few large lenders supports a high collateral price during financial downturns, leading borrowers to demand less precautionary savings and overborrow. I document that emerging countries borrow from significantly fewer banks than advanced countries, implying that emerging countries tend to overborrow. This new mechanism complements the existing view of overborrowing due to the pecuniary externality of the borrowers. Under plausible parameterization, the size of the pecuniary externality internalized by lenders is two-thirds of that internalized by borrowers. Finally, allowing lender countries to optimally choose lender structure increases lender concentration, raises debt, and improves borrowers’ welfare.

本文通过一个具有不同规模出借人的模型，研究了外债出借人结构如何影响开放经济体的信贷状况。当原子贷款人将抵押品价格视为给定时，大型贷款人将货币外部性内部化，通过出售止赎抵押品注入供应并降低其价格。因此，在金融低迷时期，将外债集中在少数几家大型银行会支持较高的抵押品价格，导致借款人要求减少预防性储蓄和过度借贷。我的研究表明，新兴国家从银行借款的数量明显少于发达国家，这意味着新兴国家往往会过度借贷。这种新机制补充了现有的观点，即过度借贷是由于借款人的货币外部性造成的。在合理的参数化下，贷款人内化的货币外部性规模是借款人内化的三分之二。最后，允许出借国对出借方结构进行最优选择，可以提高出借方的集中度，增加债务，并改善借款人的福利。

引用次数: 0

Bridging micro and macro production functions: The fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment 衔接微观与宏观生产功能：基础设施投资的财政乘数

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103873

Minsu Chang , Hanbaek Lee

This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment using an estimated heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model. We theoretically and quantitatively show that the firm-level non-rivalry in infrastructure usage drives a significant discrepancy in the estimated input elasticities between the firm and state levels. Moreover, it microfounds the increasing returns to scale assumption in a representative-agent framework (Baxter and King, 1993). The quantitative findings indicate a fiscal multiplier of approximately 1.15 over a 2-year horizon, suggesting a significantly greater net economic benefit than the representative-agent model prediction. This is due to the low sensitivity of the firm-level investment to the general equilibrium effect, followed by a significantly dampened crowding out.

本文利用估计的异质企业一般均衡模型研究了基础设施投资的财政乘数。我们从理论上和定量上表明，企业在基础设施使用方面的非竞争导致了企业和州之间估计的投入弹性的显著差异。此外，它还在代表-代理框架中微观发现了规模收益递增假设（Baxter and King, 1993）。定量研究结果表明，在2年的时间跨度内，财政乘数约为1.15，这表明净经济效益明显高于代表性代理模型的预测。这是由于企业层面的投资对一般均衡效应的敏感性较低，其次是明显抑制的挤出效应。

引用次数: 0

Soft landing and inflation scares 软着陆和通胀恐慌

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103871

James Bullard , Alex Grimaud , Isabelle Salle , Gauthier Vermandel

We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed’s reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation. We derive a closed-form solution that retains the entire time-varying cross-sectional distribution of subjective inflation beliefs. We estimate the model using Bayesian techniques on both US macroeconomic time series and forecast data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Counterfactual simulations show that the timing – rather than the strength – of the policy reaction to the inflation surge is critical to contain the development of an inflation scare and prevent the entrenchment of above-target inflation. We show that the Fed fell behind the curve in 2021 since an earlier tightening could have reduced the inflation peak without triggering a recession. However, further delays would have unanchored inflation expectations, aggravated the inflation scare and strengthened the inflation surge, resulting in larger output losses.

我们在一个估计的宏观经济模型中讨论了美联储对最近通胀飙升的反应时机和力度，在这个模型中，长期通胀预期是异质的，可能会失去对目标的锚定。由此产生的通胀恐慌加剧了反通胀的实际成本。我们得到了一个封闭形式的解，它保留了主观膨胀信念的整个时变截面分布。我们使用贝叶斯技术对美国宏观经济时间序列和专业预测者调查的预测数据进行模型估计。反事实的模拟表明，对通胀飙升做出政策反应的时机——而非力度——对于遏制通胀恐慌的发展和防止通胀高于目标水平的巩固至关重要。我们表明，美联储在2021年落后于曲线，因为早些时候的紧缩本可以在不引发衰退的情况下降低通胀峰值。然而，进一步的拖延将会动摇通胀预期，加剧通胀恐慌，加剧通胀飙升，导致更大的产出损失。

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引用次数: 0

Dissecting the great retirement boom 剖析退休潮

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103870

Serdar Birinci , Miguel Faria-e-Castro , Kurt See

Between 2020 and 2023, the fraction of retirees in the working-age population in the U.S. increased above its pre-pandemic trend. Several explanations have been proposed to rationalize this gap, including increases in net worth, the deterioration of the labor market with higher job separations, the expansion of fiscal transfer programs, and higher mortality risk. We develop an incomplete markets, overlapping generations model with a frictional labor market to quantitatively study the interaction of these factors and decompose their contributions to the rise in retirements. We find that new retirements were concentrated at the bottom of the income distribution, and the most important factors driving the rise in retirements were higher job separations and the expansion of fiscal transfers. We show that our model’s predictions on aggregate labor market moments and cross-sectional moments on retirement patterns across income and wealth distributions are in line with the data.

2020年至2023年期间，美国工作年龄人口中退休人员的比例高于疫情前的趋势。人们提出了几种解释来合理化这一差距，包括净资产的增加、劳动力市场的恶化与更高的离职率、财政转移计划的扩大以及更高的死亡风险。我们建立了一个不完全市场、代与代重叠的模型和一个摩擦劳动力市场，定量研究了这些因素的相互作用，并分解了它们对退休人数上升的贡献。我们发现，新退休人员集中在收入分配的底部，推动退休人数上升的最重要因素是离职率的上升和财政转移的扩大。我们表明，我们的模型对总劳动力市场时刻和收入和财富分配中退休模式的横截面时刻的预测与数据一致。

引用次数: 0

Inequality and asset prices during Sudden Stops 突然止损期间的不平等和资产价格

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103872

Sergio Villalvazo

This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher’s debt-deflation mechanism that triggers endogenous Sudden Stop crises — i.e., episodes with large reversals in the current account. Analyzing microdata from Mexico, we show that this dimension has macroeconomic implications that operate via opposing effects. First, an amplifying effect by which households with high leverage fire-sale their assets during crises, increasing downward pressure on asset prices. Second, a dampening effect by which wealthy households with low leverage buy depressed assets, relieving downward pressure on asset prices. As a result, the role of inequality during crises is ambiguous. We conduct a quantitative analysis using a calibrated small open economy, asset-pricing model with heterogeneous agents and aggregate risk to measure the effects of inequality during crises. The model suggests that economies with lower inequality, whether due to reduced idiosyncratic risk or wealth redistribution across agents, experience less severe crises, as observed in the data.

本文研究了费雪的债务-通缩机制的横截面维度，该机制触发了内源性骤停危机——即经常账户出现大幅逆转的事件。通过分析墨西哥的微观数据，我们发现这一维度通过相反的效应对宏观经济产生影响。首先是一种放大效应，即高杠杆家庭在危机期间甩卖资产，加大了资产价格的下行压力。其次，低杠杆的富裕家庭购买低迷资产的抑制效应，缓解了资产价格的下行压力。因此，不平等在危机中的作用是模糊的。我们使用校准的小型开放经济、具有异质主体和总风险的资产定价模型进行定量分析，以衡量危机期间不平等的影响。该模型表明，正如数据所观察到的那样，不平等程度较低的经济体（无论是由于特殊风险降低，还是由于代理人之间的财富再分配）经历的危机较轻。

引用次数: 0

A theory of fear of floating 害怕漂浮的理论

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103869

Javier Bianchi , Louphou Coulibaly

Central banks with flexible exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to let their currency float, a phenomenon known as “fear of floating.” We develop a framework in which a floating exchange rate may exacerbate vulnerability to self-fulfilling financial crises rather than provide the intended insulation against external shocks. A commitment to a crawling peg—where the currency can fluctuate within a predetermined band—can help mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling crises. In contrast to the Mundell–Fleming paradigm, the optimal exchange rate policy entails allowing the exchange rate to float in response to real shocks while maintaining it fixed in response to non-fundamental shocks.

实行灵活汇率制度的央行通常不愿让本币浮动，这种现象被称为“浮动恐惧”。我们制定了一个框架，在这个框架中，浮动汇率可能会加剧对自我实现的金融危机的脆弱性，而不是提供预期的抵御外部冲击的隔离。对爬行式盯住汇率的承诺——即人民币可以在预定区间内波动——有助于减轻自我实现危机的风险。与蒙代尔-弗莱明范式相反，最优汇率政策需要允许汇率在应对实际冲击时浮动，而在应对非基本面冲击时保持固定。

引用次数: 0

Biased surveys 有偏见的调查

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103868

Luca Gemmi , Rosen Valchev

We find empirical evidence that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. We show this is consistent with a model of strategic diversification incentives in forecast reporting where forecasters want to optimally “stand out” from the crowd, and thus report forecasts that exaggerate the agents’ true beliefs. Second, we show that no such biases are present in forecasts data that is not subject to strategic incentives. We also test further comparative statics that also confirm the strategic incentive model. Overall, we conclude that strategic reporting biases the inference an econometrician can draw on the true underlying expectations formation process, and the precision and heterogeneity in agents’ information sets, and lastly we show how to correct for this.

我们发现经验证据表明，对专业预测者的调查受到战略激励的影响。首先，我们发现个体预测对特殊信息反应过度，而对常见信息反应不足。我们表明，这与预测报告中的战略多样化激励模型是一致的，预测者希望从人群中最优地“脱颖而出”，因此报告的预测夸大了代理人的真实信念。其次，我们表明，在不受战略激励影响的预测数据中不存在这种偏差。我们还测试了进一步的比较静态数据，也证实了战略激励模型。总体而言，我们得出的结论是，战略报告偏差是计量经济学家可以借鉴的真实潜在预期形成过程的推断，以及代理人信息集的准确性和异质性，最后我们展示了如何纠正这一点。

引用次数: 0

Generating inflation expectations with large language models 使用大型语言模型生成通胀预期

IF 4.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Monetary Economics

Pub Date : 2025-11-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103859

Ali Zarifhonarvar

This paper studies the generation of inflation expectations using generative AI in survey experiments, examining diverse agents created with both proprietary and open-source large language models (LLMs). It shows that model architecture significantly impacts expectations, with proprietary models generally exhibiting less disagreement in their responses than open-source alternatives. Some LLMs predict higher inflation than actual rates, aligning with patterns observed in the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Information treatments, particularly forward guidance on inflation, influence LLMs’ inflation expectations, though with varying magnitudes across model types. Customizing prompts with demographic personas induces heterogeneous responses that mirror human survey behaviors, with some biases similar to those documented in household surveys. The paper also demonstrates how central banks could leverage these models as communication policy tools to test messaging strategies before implementation.

本文在调查实验中使用生成式人工智能研究了通胀预期的生成，研究了由专有和开源大型语言模型（llm）创建的各种代理。它表明模型体系结构显著地影响期望，专有模型通常比开源替代方案在响应中表现出更少的分歧。一些法学硕士预测通货膨胀率将高于实际水平，这与消费者预期调查中观察到的模式一致。信息处理，特别是关于通胀的前瞻指导，影响法学硕士的通胀预期，尽管不同模型类型的影响程度不同。使用人口统计人物角色定制提示会引起反映人类调查行为的异质反应，其中有些偏差与家庭调查中记录的类似。本文还展示了央行如何利用这些模型作为沟通政策工具，在实施之前测试消息传递策略。

引用次数: 0

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Journal of Monetary Economics

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