Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103693
Sebastian Infante , Guillermo Ordoñez
We show that the effect of aggregate volatility on idiosyncratic risk sharing depends on the nature of collateral sustaining insurance. While volatility increases the value of public assets—more useful for consumption smoothing—it decreases the value of private assets—more exposed to aggregate variation. Hence, a more volatile economy weakens risk sharing when collateral composition is biased towards private assets. When applied to financial intermediaries that rely heavily on private collateral to share risks, aggregate instability is more likely to induce financial instability. We empirically show that the sensitivity of risk sharing to aggregate volatility indeed depends on the collateral composition as predicted by the theory.
{"title":"The collateral link between volatility and risk sharing","authors":"Sebastian Infante , Guillermo Ordoñez","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103693","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103693","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We show that the effect of aggregate volatility on idiosyncratic risk sharing depends on the nature of collateral sustaining insurance. While volatility <em>increases</em> the value of public assets—more useful for consumption smoothing—it <em>decreases</em> the value of private assets—more exposed to aggregate variation. Hence, a more volatile economy weakens risk sharing when collateral composition is biased towards private assets. When applied to financial intermediaries that rely heavily on private collateral to share risks, aggregate instability is more likely to induce financial instability. We empirically show that the sensitivity of risk sharing to aggregate volatility indeed depends on the collateral composition as predicted by the theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103693"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143155950","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103648
Federico Di Pace , Giacomo Mangiante , Riccardo M. Masolo
This paper investigates whether UK firms’ price growth expectations respond to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy announcements and explores the underlying mechanism. Using microdata from the UK Decision Maker Panel survey, we isolate the exogenous component of the monetary policy decisions by comparing firms’ responses filed before and after BoE announcements. Guided by a model of dispersed information, our analysis suggests that firms respond to monetary policy announcements but are, overall, not as informed and sophisticated as financial market participants. Firms’ price expectations respond to actual interest rate changes, as well as to bank rate changes purged from their systematic component, but not to high-frequency surprises. The left tail of their expected price change distribution is particularly sensitive to monetary policy announcements. Furthermore, we unveil significant non-linear effects, with changes in interest rates of 50 basis points being mostly responsible for revisions in expectations. This implies that the recent tightening cycle was effective in shifting firms’ expectations primarily at its peak when a sequence of consecutive large rate hikes was implemented. We also show that UK news coverage of the BoE’s activities increases following policy rate changes, highlighting the media’s crucial role in shaping public expectations.
{"title":"Do firm expectations respond to monetary policy announcements?","authors":"Federico Di Pace , Giacomo Mangiante , Riccardo M. Masolo","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates whether UK firms’ price growth expectations respond to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy announcements and explores the underlying mechanism. Using microdata from the UK Decision Maker Panel survey, we isolate the exogenous component of the monetary policy decisions by comparing firms’ responses filed before and after BoE announcements. Guided by a model of dispersed information, our analysis suggests that firms respond to monetary policy announcements but are, overall, not as informed and sophisticated as financial market participants. Firms’ price expectations respond to actual interest rate changes, as well as to bank rate changes purged from their systematic component, but not to high-frequency surprises. The left tail of their expected price change distribution is particularly sensitive to monetary policy announcements. Furthermore, we unveil significant non-linear effects, with changes in interest rates of 50 basis points being mostly responsible for revisions in expectations. This implies that the recent tightening cycle was effective in shifting firms’ expectations primarily at its peak when a sequence of consecutive large rate hikes was implemented. We also show that UK news coverage of the BoE’s activities increases following policy rate changes, highlighting the media’s crucial role in shaping public expectations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103648"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142177737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103647
Klaus Adam , Oliver Pfäuti , Timo Reinelt
U.S. households’ housing price expectations deviate systematically from full-information rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly, (ii) expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact to housing price changes, and (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about housing price growth when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of housing price growth extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior of housing prices and these deviations from rational expectations as an equilibrium outcome. Embedding housing price growth extrapolation into a sticky price model with a lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates, we show that lower natural rates of interest increase the volatility of housing prices and thereby the volatility of the natural rate of interest. This exacerbates the relevance of the lower bound constraint and causes Ramsey optimal inflation to increase strongly with a decline in the natural rate of interest.
{"title":"Subjective housing price expectations, falling natural rates, and the optimal inflation target","authors":"Klaus Adam , Oliver Pfäuti , Timo Reinelt","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>U.S. households’ housing price expectations deviate systematically from full-information rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly, (ii) expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact to housing price changes, and (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about housing price growth when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of housing price growth extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior of housing prices and these deviations from rational expectations as an equilibrium outcome. Embedding housing price growth extrapolation into a sticky price model with a lower-bound constraint on nominal interest rates, we show that lower natural rates of interest increase the volatility of housing prices and thereby the volatility of the natural rate of interest. This exacerbates the relevance of the lower bound constraint and causes Ramsey optimal inflation to increase strongly with a decline in the natural rate of interest.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103647"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141940763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103683
Laurent Cavenaile , Murat Alp Celik , Pau Roldan-Blanco , Xu Tian
While firms use both innovation and advertising to boost profits, markups, and market shares, their broader social implications vary substantially. We study their interaction and analyze their implications for competition, industry dynamics, growth, and welfare. We develop an oligopolistic general-equilibrium growth model with firm heterogeneity. Market structure is endogenous, and firms’ production, innovation, and advertising decisions interact strategically. We find advertising reduces static misallocation, but also depresses growth through a substitution effect with R&D. Although advertising is found to be socially useful, taxing it could simultaneously increase dynamic efficiency, contain excessive advertising spending, and raise revenue, while still reducing misallocation.
{"title":"Style over substance? Advertising, innovation, and endogenous market structure","authors":"Laurent Cavenaile , Murat Alp Celik , Pau Roldan-Blanco , Xu Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103683","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103683","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While firms use both innovation and advertising to boost profits, markups, and market shares, their broader social implications vary substantially. We study their interaction and analyze their implications for competition, industry dynamics, growth, and welfare. We develop an oligopolistic general-equilibrium growth model with firm heterogeneity. Market structure is endogenous, and firms’ production, innovation, and advertising decisions interact strategically. We find advertising reduces static misallocation, but also depresses growth through a substitution effect with R&D. Although advertising is found to be socially useful, taxing it could simultaneously increase dynamic efficiency, contain excessive advertising spending, and raise revenue, while still reducing misallocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103683"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142263229","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We use new euro area representative data from the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to elicit household-specific propensities to invest and consume out of positive wealth shocks. Using a randomized assignment of hypothetical lottery gains ranging from €5,000 to €50,000 and a realistic menu of consumption, saving and asset choices, we estimate the causal effect of wealth shocks on risky asset ownership and conditional asset shares. Wealth shocks have a positive effect on stockholding (between 8.4 and 12.8 percentage points increase in participation for the largest wealth shock). The majority of households do not participate in the stock market, even after a large increase in wealth. The conditional asset share invested in risky assets is constant for wealth shocks up to €20,000, and edges up slightly (by at most 2 %) for larger prizes. Our evidence is consistent with constant relative risk aversion for the majority of risky asset investors, while we also find important heterogeneity in the level of risk aversion across individuals.
{"title":"Wealth shocks and portfolio choice","authors":"Dimitris Christelis , Dimitris Georgarakos , Tullio Jappelli , Geoff Kenny","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103632","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103632","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We use new euro area representative data from the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) to elicit household-specific propensities to invest and consume out of positive wealth shocks. Using a randomized assignment of hypothetical lottery gains ranging from €5,000 to €50,000 and a realistic menu of consumption, saving and asset choices, we estimate the causal effect of wealth shocks on risky asset ownership and conditional asset shares. Wealth shocks have a positive effect on stockholding (between 8.4 and 12.8 percentage points increase in participation for the largest wealth shock). The majority of households do not participate in the stock market, even after a large increase in wealth. The conditional asset share invested in risky assets is constant for wealth shocks up to €20,000, and edges up slightly (by at most 2 %) for larger prizes. Our evidence is consistent with constant relative risk aversion for the majority of risky asset investors, while we also find important heterogeneity in the level of risk aversion across individuals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103632"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141781959","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103723
Julian Ashwin , Paul Beaudry , Martin Ellison
Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical examples where the nonlinearity is caused by monetary policy targeting a range, rather than a specific value, of inflation. If shock persistence is high or there is inertia in the structure of the economy, then the only rational expectations equilibria that are learnable may involve inflation spending long periods outside its target range. Neural network learning is also useful for solving and selecting between multiple equilibria and steady states in other settings, such as when there is a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate.
{"title":"Neural network learning for nonlinear economies","authors":"Julian Ashwin , Paul Beaudry , Martin Ellison","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103723","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103723","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical examples where the nonlinearity is caused by monetary policy targeting a range, rather than a specific value, of inflation. If shock persistence is high or there is inertia in the structure of the economy, then the only rational expectations equilibria that are learnable may involve inflation spending long periods outside its target range. Neural network learning is also useful for solving and selecting between multiple equilibria and steady states in other settings, such as when there is a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103723"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143155948","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103724
Mauricio Ulate , Jose P. Vasquez , Roman D. Zarate
We examine the labor market consequences of global supply chain disruptions. Specifically, we consider a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyze its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. The increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United States is a net importer of manufactured goods, which become costlier to obtain from abroad. By contrast, service and agricultural employment experience temporary declines. Nominal frictions lead to temporary unemployment when the shock dissipates, but this depends on the degree of monetary accommodation. Overall, the shock results in an 8.5 basis points welfare loss for the United States. The impact on labor force participation and welfare across countries varies depending on the initial degree of openness and sectoral deficits.
{"title":"Labor market effects of global supply chain disruptions","authors":"Mauricio Ulate , Jose P. Vasquez , Roman D. Zarate","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103724","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103724","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the labor market consequences of global supply chain disruptions. Specifically, we consider a temporary increase in international trade costs similar to the one observed during the COVID-19 pandemic and analyze its effects on labor market outcomes using a quantitative trade model with downward nominal wage rigidities. The increase in trade costs leads to a temporary but prolonged decline in U.S. labor force participation. However, there is a temporary increase in manufacturing employment as the United States is a net importer of manufactured goods, which become costlier to obtain from abroad. By contrast, service and agricultural employment experience temporary declines. Nominal frictions lead to temporary unemployment when the shock dissipates, but this depends on the degree of monetary accommodation. Overall, the shock results in an 8.5 basis points welfare loss for the United States. The impact on labor force participation and welfare across countries varies depending on the initial degree of openness and sectoral deficits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103724"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143155949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103621
Hiroatsu Tanaka
I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information about productivity. Imperfect information can justify a shock to signals about productivity that does not lead to actual changes in productivity, which can be interpreted as a demand shock. When incorporated in a DSGE term structure model with a standard productivity shock, this demand shock generates term premia that are on average higher, with sizable countercyclical variation that arises endogenously. The model helps reconcile the empirical evidence that term premia have been on average positive and countercyclical, with numerous studies pointing to demand shocks as a key driver of business cycles over the last few decades.
{"title":"Equilibrium yield curves with imperfect information","authors":"Hiroatsu Tanaka","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103621","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103621","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information<span> about productivity. Imperfect information can justify a shock to signals about productivity that does not lead to actual changes in productivity, which can be interpreted as a demand shock. When incorporated in a DSGE term structure model with a standard productivity shock, this demand shock generates term premia that are on average higher, with sizable countercyclical variation that arises endogenously. The model helps reconcile the empirical evidence that term premia have been on average positive and countercyclical, with numerous studies pointing to demand shocks as a key driver of business cycles over the last few decades.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103621"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141720315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-01-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103721
Matthias Gnewuch , Donghai Zhang
We document that an interest rate cut reshapes the cross-sectional distribution of investment rates—fewer zero and small investment rates and more large ones—and particularly so among young firms. The extensive margin investment decision—whether to invest or not—is essential in explaining these findings. We develop a heterogeneous-firm model with fixed adjustment costs and firm life-cycle dynamics to rationalize the evidence and study the implications for the investment channel. The extensive margin investment decision makes monetary policy less effective whenever few firms are inclined to invest: in downturns, but also in economies with low business dynamism and few young firms.
{"title":"Monetary policy, firm heterogeneity, and the distribution of investment rates","authors":"Matthias Gnewuch , Donghai Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103721","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103721","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We document that an interest rate cut reshapes the cross-sectional distribution of investment rates—fewer zero and small investment rates and more large ones—and particularly so among young firms. The extensive margin investment decision—whether to invest or not—is essential in explaining these findings. We develop a heterogeneous-firm model with fixed adjustment costs and firm life-cycle dynamics to rationalize the evidence and study the implications for the investment channel. The extensive margin investment decision makes monetary policy less effective whenever few firms are inclined to invest: in downturns, but also in economies with low business dynamism and few young firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"149 ","pages":"Article 103721"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143156355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103725
Sergio Salgado
In many developing economies, labor markets have undergone a significant shift, with a decreasing share of routine occupations (e.g., assembly line workers) and a growing emphasis on cognitive occupations (e.g., software developers). Mukoyama et al. (2024) attribute this transformation to technological innovations driving the reorganization of work. Complementing this perspective, changes in the skill composition of the labor force also play a crucial role in explaining this occupational polarization.
{"title":"Comment on: “Occupational reallocation within and across firms: Implications for labor-market polarization” By T. Mukoyama, N. Takayama, and S. Tanaka","authors":"Sergio Salgado","doi":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103725","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103725","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In many developing economies, labor markets have undergone a significant shift, with a decreasing share of routine occupations (e.g., assembly line workers) and a growing emphasis on cognitive occupations (e.g., software developers). Mukoyama et al. (2024) attribute this transformation to technological innovations driving the reorganization of work. Complementing this perspective, changes in the skill composition of the labor force also play a crucial role in explaining this occupational polarization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48407,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Monetary Economics","volume":"150 ","pages":"Article 103725"},"PeriodicalIF":4.3,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143372975","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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