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The educational and labor market consequences of teenage exposure to rural land decollectivization in China 中国农村土地非集体化对青少年教育和劳动力市场的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106771
Zhi-An Hu , Wei Huang , Wei Luo , Wuyue You , Chuanchuan Zhang
China's land decollectivization reform implemented around 1980 expanded the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors in rural areas and thereby increased the opportunity cost of schooling for teenagers. Combining the staggered adoption of the reform across regions with individual life history data, we show that teenagers substituted out of school and into agricultural and nonagricultural work following the reform. Using population census data, we further show that teenage exposure to the reform reduced the probability of completing high school by 2.0–2.2 percentage points, the probability of nonagricultural employment by 1.5–1.6 percentage points, and income by 3.6–4.7 percent.
中国在 1980 年前后实施的土地非集体化改革扩大了农村地区的农业和非农业部门,从而增加了青少年上学的机会成本。结合各地区交错实施改革的情况和个人生活史数据,我们发现改革后青少年从学校辍学,转而从事农业和非农业工作。利用人口普查数据,我们进一步表明,青少年受改革影响后,完成高中学业的概率降低了 2.0-2.2 个百分点,非农业就业的概率降低了 1.5-1.6 个百分点,收入降低了 3.6-4.7 个百分点。
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引用次数: 0
Immigrant status and likelihood of opioid treatment. Lessons from Spain’s National Health Service 移民身份与阿片类药物治疗的可能性。西班牙国民健康服务的经验教训
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106754
Luigi Boggian , Joan E. Madia , Francesco Moscone , Cristina E. Orso
This study investigates opioid prescription patterns among immigrants and native populations in Spain, using novel patient health records from the Base de Datos Clínicos de Atención Primaria (BDCAP). We examined two subsets of data from 2017 and 2018, specifically targeting individuals diagnosed with musculoskeletal (MSK) issues and new cancer diagnoses, as these conditions frequently involve pain management. Our empirical analysis involved estimating a series of linear and count data models to explore the relationship between regions of origin, socioeconomic factors, and the probability of opioid use, controlling for a rich set of health conditions, and primary care centers fixed effects. Despite previously documented healthcare inequities, Spain demonstrates no major differences in opioid prescriptions between immigrants and natives, highlighting the effectiveness of its National Health Service (NHS). This contrasts sharply with the opioid crises in the United States and Canada. The absence of significant disparities underscores the importance of comprehensive healthcare systems and stringent regulations on opioid prescribing practices, as observed in European guidelines. Policy implications include the need to maintain and strengthen public healthcare systems to ensure equitable access to essential medications like opioids and to continue monitoring and regulating opioid prescribing practices to safeguard public health.
本研究利用来自基层医疗数据基地(BDCAP)的新型患者健康记录,调查了西班牙移民和本地人口的阿片类药物处方模式。我们研究了 2017 年和 2018 年的两个数据子集,特别针对诊断出肌肉骨骼(MSK)问题和新诊断出癌症的患者,因为这些病症经常涉及疼痛治疗。我们的实证分析包括估计一系列线性和计数数据模型,以探索原籍地区、社会经济因素和阿片类药物使用概率之间的关系,同时控制丰富的健康状况和初级保健中心固定效应。尽管之前有文献记载西班牙存在医疗不平等现象,但西班牙的阿片类药物处方在移民和本地人之间并无重大差异,这凸显了西班牙国民医疗服务体系(NHS)的有效性。这与美国和加拿大的阿片类药物危机形成了鲜明对比。没有明显的差异凸显了全面的医疗保健系统和严格的阿片类药物处方规范的重要性,正如欧洲指南中所指出的那样。政策影响包括需要维护和加强公共医疗保健系统,以确保公平获得阿片类药物等基本药物,并继续监测和规范阿片类药物的处方做法,以保障公众健康。
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引用次数: 0
In pursuit of power: Land tenancy contracts and local political business cycles in Indonesia 追求权力:印度尼西亚的土地租赁合同和地方政治商业周期
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106764
Takashi Kurosaki , Saumik Paul , Firman Witoelar
This study examines whether strategic delegation of land tenancy contracts is linked to local-level political business cycles in the context of a village institution – bengkok land – prevalent since the Dutch colonial rule in Indonesia. Bengkok land refers to communal village land that incumbent village heads receive usufruct rights over until their term in the office ends. We test whether incumbent village heads utilize time-bound access to bengkok land for political consolidation. Based on a novel cross-sectional household survey fielded in 2018 across 130 Javanese villages, we find robust evidence of a positive correlation between the percentage of total tenancy contracts as sharecropping and proximity (before or after) to the village election. As vulnerability of the sharecroppers makes them a pro-poor target for the incumbent village heads, these results implicate political capture.
本研究以印度尼西亚自荷兰殖民统治以来盛行的一种村庄制度--Bengkok 土地--为背景,探讨了土地租赁合同的战略性委托是否与地方政治商业周期有关。Bengkok 土地指的是现任村长在任期结束前获得用益权的村集体土地。我们检验了现任村长是否利用有时限的 bengkok 土地使用权来巩固政治地位。基于 2018 年对 130 个爪哇村庄进行的一项新颖的横截面家庭调查,我们发现了强有力的证据,表明佃农合同占总租赁合同的百分比与村庄选举的临近程度(之前或之后)之间存在正相关。由于佃农的脆弱性使他们成为现任村长的扶贫目标,这些结果暗示了政治俘获。
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引用次数: 0
Analysts’ accuracy following an increase in uncertainty: Evidence from the art market 不确定性增加后分析师的准确性:来自艺术品市场的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106761
Spencer Barnes , Brandon Mendez , Andrew Schrowang
This study utilizes the art market as an exogenous setting to explore how an increase in price uncertainty (i.e., the death of an artist) impacts the accuracy and forecast error of analysts’ estimates. We find that in the year following an artist's death, analysts’ accuracy decreases by 14% and their forecast error increases by 11%. Additional analysis indicates that the effect is due to a decrease in the estimation range, an increase in the forecast bias of analysts, and an increase in the price volatility of the artwork. These findings suggest that analysts perform poorly following an increase in uncertainty which is pertinent for asset markets.
本研究以艺术品市场为外生环境,探讨价格不确定性的增加(即艺术家去世)如何影响分析师估算的准确性和预测误差。我们发现,在艺术家去世后的一年里,分析师的准确性降低了 14%,预测误差增加了 11%。其他分析表明,这种影响是由于估算范围的缩小、分析师预测偏差的增加以及艺术品价格波动的增加造成的。这些研究结果表明,在不确定性增加后,分析师的表现不佳,这与资产市场有关。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of externalities on fishers' risk-taking decisions: Evidence from an experimental study at Lake Victoria, Uganda 外部因素对渔民风险决策的影响:来自乌干达维多利亚湖实验研究的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106757
Philipp Daniel Händel , Dorothy Birungi Namuyiga
Risk decisions by fishers are often accompanied by certain or uncertain externalities. However, the consideration of these externalities in their risk decisions has received little attention so far. In this study, we investigate how resource users incorporate certain or uncertain externalities into their risk decisions. We do this by conducting a lab-in-the-field experiment with Ugandan fishers at Lake Victoria. The fishers make a financially relevant risk decision with different levels of certainty about how a risky decision affects the income of a second fisher. In the treatments, a risky decision has either no impact, a possible positive or negative impact, a possible negative or no impact, or a certain negative impact on the other fisher's income. Our results show that fishers take significantly less risk when risky decisions have a certain negative effect on the income of another fisher than when they have no effect and the other fisher receives a fixed income. They also show that risk-taking only increases significantly compared to individual risk decisions when fishers know the other fisher's income but their risk decision has no impact on it.
渔民的风险决策往往伴随着某些或不确定的外部因素。然而,迄今为止,在渔民的风险决策中考虑这些外部因素的做法很少受到关注。在本研究中,我们调查了资源使用者如何将某些或不确定的外部因素纳入其风险决策。为此,我们在维多利亚湖对乌干达渔民进行了一次实验室现场实验。渔民在做出与经济相关的风险决策时,会对风险决策如何影响第二位渔民的收入做出不同程度的确定性判断。在处理过程中,一个风险决策对另一个渔民的收入要么没有影响,要么可能有正面或负面影响,要么可能有负面影响或没有影响,要么肯定有负面影响。我们的结果表明,当风险决策对另一位渔民的收入有一定负面影响时,渔民承担的风险明显低于无影响且另一位渔民获得固定收入时。结果还显示,只有当渔民知道另一名渔民的收入但其风险决策对其收入没有影响时,渔民的风险承担才会比个人风险决策显著增加。
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引用次数: 0
The Ramadan effect in the workplace 工作场所的斋月效应
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106711
Paola Bertoli , Veronica Grembi
Using daily observations from Spain during the period 2003 to 2016, we leverage the solar rotation of Ramadan days to assess its impact on occupational injuries involving Muslim workers (i.e. first generation immigrants). Compared to non-Muslim first generation immigrants, we show a decrease by 4% in injuries for Muslim workers. We investigate the effects on labor market and find significant changes at the extensive margin (lower employment probability, fewer employment contracts signed) as well as in working conditions. Additionally, we show that the effect is stronger when Ramadan is more harsh (longer fasting day duration). Based on our results, it appears that reconciling religious practices with working schedules in a systematic way, may help to reduce the health and productivity costs associated to injuries.
利用 2003 年至 2016 年期间西班牙的每日观测数据,我们利用斋月日的太阳轮换来评估其对穆斯林工人(即第一代移民)工伤的影响。与非穆斯林第一代移民相比,我们发现穆斯林工人的工伤事故减少了 4%。我们调查了对劳动力市场的影响,发现在广义边际(就业概率降低、签订的就业合同减少)和工作条件方面都发生了显著变化。此外,我们还发现,当斋月更为严酷(斋戒日持续时间更长)时,影响会更大。根据我们的研究结果,以系统的方式协调宗教习俗与工作时间安排似乎有助于降低与伤害相关的健康和生产成本。
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引用次数: 0
The effect of recent technological change on US immigration policy 近期技术变革对美国移民政策的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106759
Björn Brey
Does technological change shape immigration policy in the United States? I argue that if technological change tilts the composition of workers towards manual employment, this leads to a more restrictive immigration policy. A theoretical model and empirical evidence analyzing voting on immigration bills in the House of Representatives supports this. Policy makers representing districts exposed to manual-biased technological change are more likely to support restricting low-skill immigration. Results are confirmed using specific automation technologies: IT capital and industrial robot adoption. The analysis is completed by (i) additional results on trade policy and political polarization, (ii) further stylized evidence on the mechanism.
技术变革会影响美国的移民政策吗?我认为,如果技术变革使工人构成向体力劳动倾斜,就会导致更严格的移民政策。分析众议院移民法案投票情况的理论模型和经验证据支持这一观点。代表暴露于偏重体力劳动的技术变革的地区的决策者更有可能支持限制低技能移民。使用特定的自动化技术证实了这一结果:IT 资本和工业机器人的采用。分析还包括:(i) 有关贸易政策和政治极化的额外结果;(ii) 有关机制的进一步风格化证据。
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引用次数: 0
What are the priorities of bureaucrats? Evidence from conjoint experiments with procurement officials 官僚的优先事项是什么?采购官员联合实验的证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106716
Janne Tukiainen , Sebastian Blesse , Albrecht Bohne , Leonardo M. Giuffrida , Jan Jääskeläinen , Ari Luukinen , Antti Sieppi
While effective bureaucracy is crucial for state capacity, its decision-making remains a black box. We elicit preferences of 900+ real-world public procurement officials in Finland and Germany. This is an important pursuit as they report having sizeable discretion and minimal extrinsic incentives. Through conjoint experiments, we identify the relative importance of multiple features of procurement outcomes. Officials prioritize avoiding unexpectedly high prices over seeking low prices. Avoiding winners with prior bad performance is the most important feature. Officials avoid very low competition, while litigation risks and regional favoritism matter less. Preferences and office interests appear well-aligned among bureaucrats.
虽然有效的官僚机构对国家能力至关重要,但其决策仍是一个黑箱。我们从芬兰和德国的 900 多名现实世界中的公共采购官员那里了解他们的偏好。这是一项重要的工作,因为他们拥有很大的自由裁量权,而外在激励却微乎其微。通过联合实验,我们确定了采购结果多种特征的相对重要性。与追求低价相比,官员们更优先考虑避免意外的高价。避免之前表现不佳的中标者是最重要的特征。官员们避免极低的竞争,而诉讼风险和地区偏袒则不那么重要。官员的偏好和办公室利益似乎是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Choking under pressure in online and live esports competitions 在线和现场电竞比赛中的窒息压力
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106760
Iuliia Naidenova , Petr Parshakov , Igor Tylkin , Gleb Vasiliev
This paper explores the phenomenon of choking under pressure within the context of esports, particularly focusing on the difference between online and live competitive settings and on high-pressure situations during overtime rounds. Employing a quasi-experimental design, the research leverages an extensive dataset covering professional CS:GO matches from 2012 to 2022 (match-level) and from 2015 to 2023 (round-level), including performance metrics such as players' ratings, headshot percentages, and teammate damage. The findings indicate a substantial decrease in the performance of esports players during overtime. This effect, however, is significantly mitigated in online competitions compared to live events. The study also reveals that while individual performance suffers under pressure, the impact on team coordination is less pronounced in online settings, suggesting that the virtual environment might offer a buffer against the negative effects of stress on team dynamics. This study enriches our understanding of performance psychology in digital settings but also opens up new avenues for research on stress, teamwork, and performance in professional and virtual environments.
本文探讨了电子竞技中压力下的窒息现象,尤其关注在线和现场竞技环境的差异以及加时赛中的高压情况。研究采用了准实验设计,利用了广泛的数据集,涵盖了 2012 年至 2022 年(比赛层面)和 2015 年至 2023 年(回合层面)的职业 CS:GO 比赛,包括玩家评分、爆头率和队友伤害等性能指标。研究结果表明,电竞玩家在加时赛中的表现会大幅下降。不过,与现场赛事相比,这种影响在在线比赛中得到明显缓解。研究还发现,虽然个人表现在压力下会受到影响,但在在线环境下,团队协调受到的影响并不明显,这表明虚拟环境可能会提供缓冲,以抵消压力对团队动力的负面影响。这项研究丰富了我们对数字环境中绩效心理学的理解,同时也为专业和虚拟环境中的压力、团队合作和绩效研究开辟了新的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Endogenous reorganization: Status, productivity & meritocratic dynamics 内生重组:地位、生产力和任人唯贤的动力
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106747
Ashutosh Thakur , Jonathan Bendor
We model the dynamics of endogenous organizational assignments of people to positions where those being assigned positions can themselves lobby for who gets which position. Internal labor market changes depend on how much individuals value their personal status, organizational output, their friends’ welfare, and the quality of their departmental colleagues. We show that an organization converges to the meritocratic, efficient assignment of people to positions by a combination of agents valuing organizational output and restrictions on the scale of reorganization. However, concentrated decision-making power, lax restrictions on agenda-setting protocols, certain friendship networks, and department/team structures can hinder such paths of reshuffling.
我们模拟了内生的组织职位分配动态,在这种情况下,被分配职位的人可以自己游说谁获得哪个职位。内部劳动力市场的变化取决于个人对个人地位、组织产出、朋友福利以及部门同事素质的重视程度。我们的研究表明,一个组织在重视组织产出和限制重组规模的共同作用下,会趋同于任人唯贤的高效职位分配。然而,集中的决策权、对议程设置协议的宽松限制、某些友谊网络以及部门/团队结构都会阻碍这种重新洗牌的路径。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
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