Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization最新文献

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The role of housing market and credit on household consumption dynamics: Evidence from the OECD countries 住房市场和信贷对家庭消费动态的作用：经合组织国家的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106741

Karolis Bielskis , Povilas Lastauskas

We examine how fluctuations in the house price–rent spread, which reflect shifts in expectations about future house price growth, impact household consumption while considering the role of credit constraints. A rise in the spread, indicating higher expected future house prices relative to rents, boosts household consumption and eases credit constraints. By incorporating a housing spread shock into a model of household decision-making with borrowing frictions, we analyze data from 28 OECD countries over 50 years. Our findings demonstrate that shocks to the housing spread provide a sustained stimulus to household consumption by enhancing expected future wealth and reducing borrowing frictions. In contrast, credit shocks lead to immediate but short-lived ‘boom–bust’ cycles. The combined effects of housing spread and credit shocks reveal significant asymmetries, particularly during crises. These results highlight the need for policies that jointly address credit conditions and household expectations to effectively stabilize the economy.

我们研究了反映未来房价增长预期变化的房价-租金价差的波动如何影响家庭消费，同时考虑了信贷约束的作用。价差的上升表明未来房价相对于租金的预期较高，从而促进了家庭消费并缓解了信贷约束。通过将房屋价差冲击纳入具有借贷摩擦的家庭决策模型，我们分析了 28 个经合组织国家 50 年来的数据。我们的研究结果表明，住房价差冲击通过提高预期未来财富和减少借贷摩擦，持续刺激了家庭消费。相比之下，信贷冲击会导致直接但短暂的 "繁荣-萧条 "周期。房贷利差和信贷冲击的综合效应显示出显著的不对称性，尤其是在危机期间。这些结果突出表明，需要制定共同解决信贷条件和家庭预期的政策，以有效稳定经济。

引用次数: 0

Calibration and validation of macroeconomic simulation models by statistical causal search 通过统计因果搜索校准和验证宏观经济模拟模型

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106786

Mario Martinoli, Alessio Moneta, Gianluca Pallante

We introduce a general procedure for macroeconomic models’ calibration and validation. Configurations of parameters are selected on the basis of a loss function involving a distance between model-derived structural coefficients and their empirical counterparts. These, in both cases, are locally identified by exploiting non-Gaussianity in a structural vector autoregressive framework under a data-driven approach. We use model confidence set to account for the uncertainty in the selection procedure. We provide a measure of validation by comparing (model’s and empirical) shocks-variables structure. We apply our procedure to a complex macroeconomic simulation model that studies the link between climate change and economic growth.

我们介绍了宏观经济模型校准和验证的一般程序。参数配置的选择基于损失函数，该函数涉及模型得出的结构系数与其经验对应系数之间的距离。在这两种情况下，都是在数据驱动方法下，利用结构向量自回归框架中的非高斯性进行局部识别的。我们使用模型置信集来解释选择过程中的不确定性。通过比较（模型和经验）冲击-变量结构，我们提供了一种验证措施。我们将这一程序应用于研究气候变化与经济增长之间联系的复杂宏观经济模拟模型。

引用次数: 0

Revenue sharing agreements and hold-up problems in joint projects: Theory and experiments 联合项目中的收入分享协议和搁置问题：理论与实验

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106774

Sookie Xue Zhang , Ralph-Christopher Bayer

The lack of property rights in joint projects can cause hold-up problems, as expected fights over the proceeds make investing not worthwhile. We investigate theoretically and experimentally if the availability of different contractual sharing rules can solve the hold-up problem. As theory predicts, we find that the availability of first-best contracts that divide revenue proportional to investment shares yields high uptake, extensive investment and high efficiency. First-best sharing contracts are often not feasible. Simple equal-split contracts are a prominent but theoretically ineffective alternative. Contrary to theoretical predictions, making cheap equal-split contracts available is welfare increasing. Cooperative participants opt for the contract with the correct expectation that despite the lack of incentives significant investment will follow. This leads to welfare gains. The better than expected performance of equal-split contracts provides a rationale for their frequent use in the field.

联合项目中产权的缺失会导致搁置问题，因为预期的收益争夺战会使投资变得不值得。我们通过理论和实验研究了不同的合同分享规则能否解决搁置问题。正如理论所预测的那样，我们发现，如果存在按投资份额比例分配收益的第一最优合同，就会产生高吸收率、广泛投资和高效率。第一最佳分享合同往往不可行。简单的平分合同是一个突出的替代方案，但理论上效果不佳。与理论预测相反，提供廉价的均分合同会增加福利。合作参与者在选择合同时会有一个正确的预期，即尽管缺乏激励机制，但大量投资仍会随之而来。这将带来福利收益。平分合同优于预期的表现为其在实地的频繁使用提供了理由。

引用次数: 0

What drives demand for loot boxes? An experimental study 是什么驱动了对 "战利品箱 "的需求？一项实验研究

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106755

Simon Cordes , Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt , Tobias Werner

The market for video games is booming, with in-game purchases accounting for a substantial share of developers’ revenues. Policymakers and the general public alike are concerned that so-called “loot boxes” – lotteries that offer random rewards to be used in-game – induce consumers to overspend on video games. We provide experimental evidence suggesting that common design features of loot boxes (such as opaque odds and positively selected feedback) indeed induce overspending by inflating the belief of winning a prize. In combination, these features double the average willingness-to-pay for lotteries. Based on our findings, we argue for the need to regulate the design of loot boxes to protect consumers from overspending.

电子游戏市场正在蓬勃发展，游戏内购买在开发商的收入中占据了相当大的份额。政策制定者和公众都担心，所谓的 "战利品箱"--提供游戏中使用的随机奖励的彩票--会诱使消费者在电子游戏中过度消费。我们提供的实验证据表明，"战利品箱 "的常见设计特征（如不透明赔率和正向选择反馈）确实会通过夸大中奖信念而诱发超额消费。这些特征结合在一起，会使彩票的平均支付意愿增加一倍。根据我们的研究结果，我们认为有必要规范奖品箱的设计，以保护消费者免受过度消费。

引用次数: 0

Ambiguity attitudes and surprises: Experimental evidence on communicating new information within a large population sample 模糊态度与惊喜：在大样本人群中传播新信息的实验证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106778

Aljoscha Minnich , Hauke Roggenkamp , Andreas Lange

This paper investigates ambiguity attitudes for natural events (temperatures) and how they are updated following new information. Using a general population sample, we first obtain baseline ambiguity attitudes for future weather events based on real temperatures over several past days. Second, we study the influence of different communication types on updating the ambiguity attitudes: participants are given either point estimators, interval estimators, or the combination of both as weather forecasts. We further vary whether the forecast is surprising or in line with the initially received information. In contrast to claims that ambiguity aversion may increase in response to surprising news, we find that ambiguity attitudes are rather robust to new information and variants of their communication. Yet, different variants of communicating new information significantly change the belief updating process and affect the matching probabilities given to specific events. Our sample allows us to analyze socio-demographic correlates of ambiguity attitudes and the updating of ambiguity attitudes to new information.

本文研究了人们对自然事件（气温）的模糊态度，以及在获得新信息后这些态度是如何更新的。首先，我们利用普通人群样本，根据过去几天的真实气温，获得了人们对未来天气事件的模糊态度基线。其次，我们研究了不同传播类型对更新模糊态度的影响：参与者会得到点估计值、区间估计值或两者结合的天气预报。我们会进一步改变预报是出人意料还是与最初收到的信息一致。与模棱两可的厌恶情绪可能会因令人惊讶的消息而增加的说法不同，我们发现模棱两可的态度对新信息及其传播的变体相当稳健。然而，传播新信息的不同变体会显著改变信念更新过程，并影响特定事件的匹配概率。我们的样本使我们能够分析模糊态度的社会人口学相关因素以及模糊态度对新信息的更新。

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引用次数: 0

Sharing the cake during a crisis: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on intertemporal altruism and efficiency concerns 在危机中分享蛋糕：COVID-19 大流行病对时际利他主义和效率问题的影响

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106763

Johannes Ross , Ann-Katrin Kienle , Andreas Nicklisch

This study examines inter-temporal distribution decisions on private payments and donations during the coronavirus pandemic. We simultaneously measured individual efficiency concerns, altruism and time preferences in an online experiment conducted among US residents during different stages of the crisis. Participants were asked to distribute money between different dates and recipients, that is, today versus in two weeks and private payouts versus donations to fight against the pandemic. To assess participants’ affectedness by COVID-19, we collected data on participants’ employment status and financial situation, as well as their individual vulnerability to COVID-19. We identify a decrease in individual preferences for efficiency over the progress of the pandemic. The reduction of efficiency concerns is driven by self-reported financial affectedness, but accompanied by an increase in altruism. Our results point at the crucial role of financial security for both efficiency-seeking behaviour and the willingness to provide support during the crisis.

本研究探讨了冠状病毒大流行期间私人支付和捐赠的跨时空分配决策。我们在危机的不同阶段对美国居民进行了一次在线实验，同时测量了个人的效率关注、利他主义和时间偏好。参与者被要求在不同的日期和收款人之间分配资金，即今天与两周后，私人支付与抗击大流行的捐款。为了评估参与者受 COVID-19 影响的程度，我们收集了参与者的就业状况、财务状况以及个人对 COVID-19 的脆弱性的数据。我们发现，随着疫情的发展，个人对效率的偏好有所下降。自我报告的经济受影响程度推动了效率偏好的降低，但同时利他主义也在增加。我们的研究结果表明，在危机期间，财务安全对于追求效率的行为和提供支持的意愿都起着至关重要的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Information nudges and tax compliance: Evidence from a field experiment in China 信息提示与纳税遵从：来自中国实地实验的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106779

Wenhui Yang , Jing Zhao , Hao Zhou

Tax administrations worldwide employ various policy tools to enhance tax compliance, but the effectiveness of nudges remains uncertain. To address this gap, we conducted a field experiment in China to evaluate the causal effects of deterrence and non-deterrence nudges on individual income tax compliance. Our findings indicate that all reminder messages significantly increase tax compliance compared to a no-message control group. Furthermore, when compared to a basic information control group, deterrence nudges – such as those highlighting credit penalties and overdue fines – significantly boost tax compliance, while non-deterrence nudges, such as appeals to tax morality or public services, have an insignificant impact. Deterrence nudges also show heterogeneous effects on tax compliance, being primarily short-term with diminishing influence over time. They are particularly effective in motivating males and individuals in market sectors to comply, but fail to improve compliance among firm owners and the super-rich.

世界各地的税务管理部门都在使用各种政策工具来提高纳税遵从度，但激励措施的效果仍不确定。为了弥补这一不足，我们在中国进行了一项实地实验，评估威慑性和非威慑性激励措施对个人所得税遵从度的因果效应。我们的研究结果表明，与无信息对照组相比，所有提醒信息都能显著提高纳税遵从度。此外，与基本信息对照组相比，威慑性提示信息（如强调信用罚款和逾期罚款的提示信息）能显著提高纳税遵从度，而非威慑性提示信息（如呼吁纳税道德或公共服务）的影响则不明显。威慑性劝告对纳税遵从的影响也不尽相同，主要是短期影响，随着时间的推移影响逐渐减弱。它们在激励市场部门的男性和个人遵从税法方面尤为有效，但未能提高公司所有者和超级富豪的遵从度。

引用次数: 0

Information about inequality in early child care reduces polarization in policy preferences 有关幼儿保育不平等的信息可减少政策偏好的两极分化

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106780

Henning Hermes , Philipp Lergetporer , Fabian Mierisch , Guido Schwerdt , Simon Wiederhold

We investigate public preferences for equity-enhancing policies in access to early child care, using a survey experiment with a representative sample of the German population (

n \approx 4, 800

). We observe strong misperceptions about migrant-native inequalities in early child care that vary by respondents’ age and right-wing voting preferences. Randomly providing information about the actual extent of inequalities has a nuanced impact on the support for equity-enhancing policy reforms: it increases support for respondents who initially underestimated these inequalities, and tends to decrease support for those who initially overestimated them. This asymmetric effect leads to a more consensual policy view, substantially decreasing the polarization in policy support between under- and overestimators. Our results suggest that correcting misperceptions can align public policy preferences, potentially leading to less polarized debates about how to address inequalities and discrimination.

我们通过对具有代表性的德国人口样本（n≈4,800）进行调查实验，研究了公众对早期儿童保育方面的公平促进政策的偏好。我们观察到，受访者对移民与本地人在幼儿保育方面的不平等存在强烈的误解，这种误解因受访者的年龄和右翼投票偏好而异。随机提供有关不平等实际程度的信息，会对促进公平的政策改革的支持率产生微妙的影响：它会增加最初低估这些不平等的受访者的支持率，而往往会降低最初高估这些不平等的受访者的支持率。这种非对称效应使政策观点更加一致，大大减少了低估者和高估者之间政策支持的两极分化。我们的研究结果表明，纠正错误认知可以调整公共政策偏好，从而有可能减少关于如何解决不平等和歧视问题的两极分化辩论。

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引用次数: 0

People do not demand commitment devices because they might not work 人们不要求承诺装置，因为它们可能不起作用

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106756

Ryan Westphal

Low demand for pure commitment in real markets presents a puzzle. A possible explanation is that individuals are unaware of their present bias and their need for commitment. I test the relationship between perceived intertemporal inconsistency and demand for commitment in a novel context, volunteering. I run an experiment that successfully corrects subjects’ beliefs about their present bias and find that this increased awareness does not increase demand for commitment. This low demand for commitment is not driven by a perceived lack of present bias, but rather subjects’ accurate belief that they may fail to follow through, even with the offered level of commitment.

现实市场中对纯粹承诺的需求很低，这是一个难题。一种可能的解释是，个人没有意识到自己目前的偏差和对承诺的需求。我在一个新颖的情境--志愿服务--中检验了感知到的时际不一致性与承诺需求之间的关系。我进行了一项实验，成功地纠正了受试者对其当前偏差的看法，结果发现这种意识的提高并没有增加对承诺的需求。这种对承诺的低需求并不是由感知到的当前偏差的缺乏驱动的，而是受试者准确地认为，即使提供了承诺水平，他们也可能无法坚持到底。

引用次数: 0

Pension systems revisited in the age of automation and an aging economy 在自动化和老龄化经济时代重新审视养老金制度

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

Pub Date : 2024-10-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106784

Jae-Yoon Kim , Dongwoo Lee

This study analyzes the impact of aging — an increase in longevity or a decrease in fertility rates — on pension benefits in an economy that incorporates automation capital in the production process. Across all three pension schemes—pay as you go, fully funded, and modified fully funded, we observe that the impact of increasing longevity is more pronounced than that of a decreasing fertility rate. Specifically, our analyses indicate that while increasing longevity consistently has a negative impact on pension benefits under all pension schemes, the impact of a decreasing fertility rate varies according to the pension scheme. Additionally, based on the common observation across all pension schemes that low-skilled households are vulnerable to the impacts of aging, we explore redistributive policies to improve the welfare of these households, and our findings indicate that the policy that leads to Pareto improvement can vary depending on the main driver of demographic transitions.

本研究分析了在一个将自动化资本纳入生产流程的经济体中，老龄化--寿命延长或生育率下降--对养老金福利的影响。在所有三种养老金计划中--即收即付、全额注资和修正的全额注资，我们观察到，寿命延长的影响比生育率下降的影响更明显。具体来说，我们的分析表明，在所有养老金计划中，寿命延长都会对养老金福利产生负面影响，而生育率下降的影响则因养老金计划而异。此外，根据所有养老金计划的共同观察，低技能家庭容易受到老龄化的影响，我们探讨了改善这些家庭福利的再分配政策，我们的研究结果表明，导致帕累托改善的政策会因人口转变的主要驱动因素而有所不同。

引用次数: 0

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Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

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