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Self-Control preferences and public pension analysis 自我控制偏好与公共养老金分析
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107338
Daniel Wheadon , Gonzalo Castex , George Kudrna , Alan Woodland
We study the macroeconomic and fiscal effects of self-control preferences on household saving, labor supply, and public pension design. Building on the framework of Gul and Pesendorfer, we develop a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which agents face temptations over both consumption and leisure. We use this model to analyze how varying degrees of self-control costs interact with key pension parameters: the taper rate (means testing), the maximum pension benefit, and the eligibility age. We find that stronger self-control preferences increase reliance on public pensions, amplifying fiscal pressure and altering labor supply patterns, particularly among older workers. Means testing can partially mitigate these effects by encouraging private saving and later retirement but involves trade-offs in taxation and welfare. By incorporating self-control preferences into a macroeconomic framework, we highlight how behavioral biases can influence the performance and fiscal impact of alternative pension policies.
我们研究了自我控制偏好对家庭储蓄、劳动力供给和公共养老金设计的宏观经济和财政影响。在Gul和Pesendorfer的框架上,我们开发了一个定量的一般均衡重叠代模型,其中代理人面临消费和休闲的诱惑。我们使用这个模型来分析不同程度的自我控制成本如何与关键养老金参数相互作用:缩减率(经济状况调查),最大养老金福利和资格年龄。我们发现,更强的自我控制偏好增加了对公共养老金的依赖,放大了财政压力,改变了劳动力供应模式,尤其是在老年工人中。经济状况调查可以通过鼓励私人储蓄和推迟退休来部分缓解这些影响,但涉及税收和福利方面的权衡。通过将自我控制偏好纳入宏观经济框架,我们强调了行为偏差如何影响替代养老金政策的绩效和财政影响。
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引用次数: 0
Earthquakes and the intergenerational delegation of responsibility 地震和代际责任分配
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107363
Nurun Naher Moni , Muhammad Habibur Rahman , Ruhul Salim
Do earthquakes affect parents’ preferences for raising responsible children? By merging data on random variations in the frequency and timing of earthquakes with five waves of the World Values Survey from 1995 to 2022 at the district level across 90 countries, our event-specific difference-in-differences estimates reveal that parents affected by moderate earthquakes increase their preference for responsible children by 5.9 percentage points due to perceived risks. We argue that moderate shocks heighten risk perceptions without depleting parental capacity, whereas strong earthquakes dampen this effect by reducing the capacity required to instill responsibility. Our empirical evidence suggests that governments should embed child-centred disaster risk reduction frameworks within post-disaster recovery strategies to enhance long-term disaster resilience.
地震会影响父母对培养负责任的孩子的偏好吗?通过将地震频率和时间随机变化的数据与1995年至2022年在90个国家的地区一级进行的五波世界价值观调查相结合,我们对事件特定差异的差异估计显示,由于感知到风险,受中度地震影响的父母对负责任的孩子的偏好增加了5.9个百分点。我们认为,适度的地震会在不消耗父母能力的情况下提高风险意识,而强烈的地震会通过降低灌输责任所需的能力来抑制这种影响。我们的经验证据表明,政府应该将以儿童为中心的减少灾害风险框架纳入灾后恢复战略,以增强长期的抗灾能力。
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引用次数: 0
Nudge Me! A field experiment on reminders for medication adherence 推我!一个关于药物依从性提醒的现场实验
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107368
Kai Barron , Mette Trier Damgaard , Christina Gravert
Reminders are widely used in public policy to promote beneficial behaviors, but little is known about how individuals value them. We conduct a field experiment with over 4,000 pregnant women in South Africa, delivered via the national mobile health platform, to assess how different reminder types—purely attentional, informational, and morally persuasive—affect both adherence to iron supplementation and willingness to pay (WTP) for future reminders. Despite high self-reported adherence, demand for reminders is substantial: over 80% choose additional reminders when free, and many are willing to pay to receive them. Exposure to reminders increases both adherence and WTP. However, reminders that include additional health information significantly reduce both outcomes relative to simple reminders, showing that even well-intended information can have unintended consequences. Our results can help inform the design of public health communications.
提醒被广泛用于公共政策中,以促进有益的行为,但人们对个人如何评价它们却知之甚少。我们对南非的4000多名孕妇进行了一项实地实验,通过国家移动健康平台进行,以评估不同的提醒类型(纯注意力、信息性和道德说服力)如何影响对铁补充剂的坚持和对未来提醒的支付意愿(WTP)。尽管自我报告的坚持度很高,但对提醒的需求还是很大的:超过80%的人在免费时选择额外的提醒,许多人愿意付费接收。接触提醒可以提高依从性和WTP。然而,与简单的提醒相比,包含额外健康信息的提醒大大降低了这两种结果,这表明即使是善意的信息也可能产生意想不到的后果。我们的研究结果可以为公共卫生传播的设计提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Markets and New Industrial Policy: Systemic directionality or polycentric evolutionism? 市场与新产业政策:系统方向性还是多中心进化论?
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107378
Bryan Cheang , Mark Pennington
Proponents of “new industrial policy” claim that systemic directionality can be imparted to market economies in ways recognising the epistemic challenges of complexity and uncertainty. This paper evaluates these efforts to reformulate industrial policy on a more epistemically modest, evolutionary footing and argues that they fail. We contend that the focus on “systemic directionality” undercuts the emphasis placed on evolutionary learning and the epistemic limitations of centralised authority. Proper attention to these problems implies neither a laissez-faire/market fundamentalist position nor one that favours “systemic directionality.” Rather, it points towards a largely directionless environment where market-state entanglements arise through a polycentric evolutionism at multiple different scales.
“新产业政策”的支持者声称,可以通过承认复杂性和不确定性带来的认知挑战的方式,赋予市场经济系统性方向性。本文对这些在认识论上更温和、更进化的基础上重新制定产业政策的努力进行了评估,并认为它们失败了。我们认为,对“系统方向性”的关注削弱了对进化学习和中央集权的认知限制的强调。对这些问题的适当关注既不意味着自由放任/市场原教旨主义立场,也不意味着支持“系统定向”。相反,它指出了一个很大程度上没有方向的环境,在这个环境中,市场国家的纠缠是通过在多个不同尺度上的多中心进化而产生的。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of public knowledge about central bank independence on trust and inflation expectations 公众对央行独立性的了解对信任和通胀预期的影响
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107329
Nils Brouwer , Jakob De Haan
We conducted a survey of Dutch households to examine public knowledge of central bank independence. The results suggest that the public knows little about the independence of the European Central Bank (ECB). For instance, many respondents believe the ECB is influenced by the European Commission, EU governments, or financial institutions. Using a randomized controlled trial, we analyzed whether information about the ECB’s independence affects trust in the central bank and inflation expectations. Our experiment revealed that providing this information increased trust in the central bank, particularly among older individuals, individuals knowledgeable about central banks, and individuals who trusted the European Commission less. However, our results also suggest that providing this information does not affect inflation expectations.
我们对荷兰家庭进行了一项调查,以检验公众对央行独立性的认识。结果表明,公众对欧洲中央银行(ECB)的独立性知之甚少。例如,许多受访者认为欧洲央行受到欧盟委员会、欧盟各国政府或金融机构的影响。通过一项随机对照试验,我们分析了有关欧洲央行独立性的信息是否会影响对央行的信任和通胀预期。我们的实验表明,提供这些信息增加了对央行的信任,尤其是在老年人、对央行了解的个人和对欧盟委员会信任度较低的个人中。然而,我们的结果也表明,提供这些信息并不影响通胀预期。
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引用次数: 0
Bribery, secrecy, and communication: theory and evidence from firms 贿赂、保密与沟通:来自公司的理论与证据
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107366
Jafar M. Olimov
This paper studies if firms pay different types of bribes, and if corrupt bureaucrats have perfect information about resources of bribe-paying firms. We construct a model of corruption that allows for multiple informational scenarios in a single market for bribes and empirically test these scenarios on the original dataset of 429 firms operating in Tajikistan. The results indicate that firms simultaneously make voluntary and involuntary bribe payments, firms hide resources from corrupt bureaucrats to reduce involuntary bribe payments, and bureaucrats who receive voluntary bribe payments do not share bribery-relevant information with other bureaucrats.
本文研究了企业是否存在不同类型的贿赂行为,以及腐败官员是否掌握了行贿企业资源的完全信息。我们构建了一个腐败模型,该模型允许在单一贿赂市场中存在多种信息情景,并在塔吉克斯坦429家公司的原始数据集上对这些情景进行了实证测试。结果表明:企业同时进行自愿和非自愿行贿;企业向腐败官僚隐藏资源以减少非自愿行贿;接受自愿行贿的官僚不与其他官僚分享贿赂相关信息。
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引用次数: 0
To the depths of the sunk cost: Experiments revisiting the elusive effect 沉没成本的深度:重新审视难以捉摸的效应的实验
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107352
George Beknazar-Yuzbashev , Sota Ichiba , Mateusz Stalinski
Despite being often discussed both in practice and academic circles, the sunk cost effect remains empirically elusive. Our model based on reference point dependence suggests that the traditional way of testing it—by assigning discounts—may not produce the desired effect. Motivated by this, we evaluate it across the gain-loss divide in two pre-registered experiments. In an online study with N = 1,806, we randomize the price (low, medium, or high) of a ticket to enter a real-effort task, and observe its effect on play time. Our intervention, which varies the sunk cost by $2 for a 14-minute task, results in a moderate sunk cost effect (0.12 SD or 1.3 min). We further explore the economic applications of the effect in a field experiment on YouTube with N = 11,328 videos in which we randomize whether the time until a pre-video ad becomes skippable is shortened (0 s), default (5 s), or extended (10 s). The intervention has an overall insignificant effect on video engagement. This is driven by a sizable negative effect on the extensive margin, a channel which is not present in the online study. Specifically, more users leave before the video starts in the extended treatment (5.2 pp or 28 % more relative to the shortened treatment). Taking the results of both studies together, we offer evidence of the sunk cost effect in a controlled environment, but its application in policy settings may prove challenging.
尽管在实践和学术界经常被讨论,但沉没成本效应在经验上仍然难以捉摸。我们基于参考点依赖的模型表明,传统的测试方法——通过分配折扣——可能不会产生预期的效果。受此启发,我们在两个预注册实验中评估了它的得失差异。在一项N = 1806的在线研究中,我们随机设置门票的价格(低、中、高),以进入一个真正的努力任务,并观察其对游戏时间的影响。我们的干预措施,将14分钟任务的沉没成本改变2美元,产生中等沉没成本效应(0.12标准差或1.3分钟)。我们在YouTube上对N = 11,328个视频进行了现场实验,进一步探索了该效应的经济应用。在实验中,我们随机选择视频前广告变为可跳过的时间是缩短(0秒)、默认(5秒)还是延长(10秒)。干预对视频参与度的总体影响不显著。这是由于对广泛利润产生了相当大的负面影响,这是在线研究中不存在的一个渠道。具体来说,在延长治疗中,更多的用户在视频开始之前就离开了(5.2 pp,比缩短治疗多28%)。综合两项研究的结果,我们提供了在受控环境下沉没成本效应的证据,但其在政策设置中的应用可能具有挑战性。
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引用次数: 0
Investing to get a head start in contests 投资是为了在竞争中获得先机
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107364
Derek J. Clark , Tapas Kundu , Tore Nilssen
In a contest, rivals compete for a prize by making irretrievable outlays. Commonly, researchers assume that contestants spontaneously start to compete at some designated time. In practice, however, preparation is an important part of the actual contest, where rivals may undertake actions in order to improve their chance of winning the prize. We model this as a two-player all-pay auction under complete information in which rivals can make an investment to try to get a head start before the contest is played. We provide conditions under which a pure-strategy equilibrium exists in which the player with the high prize valuation invests and the opponent does not. A pure-strategy equilibrium can also exist in which it is the player with the low prize valuation that makes the investment. The investment opportunity allows the rivals to move some of the competition to the investment stage, reducing the intensity of fighting in the contest. An important feature of our model is that investment does not necessarily preclude fighting in the contest. We show when investment leads to active participation in the contest, and when it leads a rival to simply capitulate. This is an important distinction, especially if the overall aim is to minimize contest effort, such as in armed conflicts.
在竞赛中,竞争对手为争夺奖品而付出不可挽回的代价。通常,研究人员假设参赛者在某个指定的时间自发地开始比赛。然而,在实践中,准备是实际竞赛的重要组成部分,竞争对手可能会采取行动,以提高他们获奖的机会。我们将其建模为完全信息下的两方全付费拍卖,竞争对手可以在竞争开始前进行投资,以争取先机。我们提供了一个纯策略均衡存在的条件,在这个条件下,拥有高奖励估值的玩家投资,而对手不投资。纯策略均衡也可能存在,即奖励估值较低的玩家进行投资。投资机会使竞争对手将部分竞争转移到投资阶段,从而降低了比赛中的战斗强度。我们模型的一个重要特征是,投资并不一定会排除竞争。我们展示了投资什么时候会导致积极参与竞争,什么时候会导致竞争对手简单地投降。这是一个重要的区别,特别是如果总体目标是尽量减少竞争的努力,比如在武装冲突中。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral implementation by individual-based rights structures: A full characterization 基于个人的权利结构的行为实现:一个完整的特征
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107367
Ville Korpela , Michele Lombardi , Julius Zachariassen
Behavioral implementation studies the social choice rules that a planner can implement when individuals’ choice behavior need not be rational. Existing results cannot determine which social choice rules are behaviorally implementable when individuals’ choices exhibit significant choice anomalies such as decoy effect, choice overload, and compromise effect. We improve the situation by fully identifying the class of social choice rules behaviorally implementable by individual-based rights structures. In this framework, the planner designs an individual-based rights structure, which specifies rights of individuals to change the status-quo outcome of the society. It turns out that the key to a full characterization is to understand which condition should replace unanimity when individuals’ choices are non-rational.
行为实施研究的是当个体的选择行为不需要理性时,计划者可以实施的社会选择规则。当个体的选择表现出明显的选择异常(如诱饵效应、选择过载和妥协效应)时,现有的结果无法确定哪些社会选择规则是行为可执行的。我们通过充分识别基于个人的权利结构在行为上可实现的社会选择规则类别来改善这种情况。在这个框架中,规划者设计了一个以个人为基础的权利结构,它规定了个人改变社会现状结果的权利。事实证明,一个完整的特征的关键是理解当个人的选择是非理性的时候,哪种条件应该取代一致同意。
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引用次数: 0
Choice flexibility and decision to compete 选择灵活性和竞争决策
IF 2.3 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107361
Elif E. Demiral , Brianna Halladay
Persistent gender gaps in economic outcomes and leadership representation remain a major challenge. One contributing factor is the lower propensity of women to enter competitive environments, a behavioral difference shown to impact career advancement and earnings. In this study, we examine whether introducing flexibility in compensation decisions—specifically, the ability to revise one’s choice between piece rate and tournament after task completion—can reduce gender differences in willingness to compete. We experimentally vary both the availability and timing of this flexibility: some participants learn ex-ante that they may revise their choice, while others are surprised ex-post. Our results show that surprise flexibility can impact the gender gap in tournament entry, helping slightly more women to switch into competition after task completion. In contrast, when participants are informed in advance, the gender gap slightly widens, as men respond more assertively to the competitive option. These findings highlight how the structure and timing of choice flexibility can shape competitive behavior.
经济成果和领导层代表性方面持续存在的性别差距仍然是一项重大挑战。其中一个因素是女性进入竞争环境的倾向较低,这种行为差异会影响职业发展和收入。在这项研究中,我们考察了在薪酬决策中引入灵活性——特别是在任务完成后修改个人在计件工资和比赛之间的选择的能力——是否可以减少竞争意愿的性别差异。我们在实验中改变了这种灵活性的可用性和时间:一些参与者事先知道他们可能会修改他们的选择,而另一些人则在事后感到惊讶。我们的研究结果表明,意外灵活性可以影响参加比赛的性别差距,帮助更多的女性在完成任务后转向比赛。相比之下,当参与者被提前告知时,性别差异略有扩大,因为男性对竞争选项的反应更果断。这些发现强调了选择灵活性的结构和时机如何影响竞争行为。
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引用次数: 0
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Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
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