Journal of Development Economics最新文献

英文中文

Large firms and the intensive margin of labor informality evidence from an enforcement intervention in Peru 秘鲁一项执法干预的证据表明，大公司和密集的劳动力边际

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103679

Mariano Bosch , Guillermo Cruces , Stephanie González , María Teresa Silva-Porto

In developing countries, informal labor is not only employed by illegal or unregistered firms but also by legal firms that hire workers informally, known as the intensive margin of labor informality. Reducing this type of work may have ambiguous effects on formal employment, depending on factors such as firm size and productivity. In collaboration with Peru's labor inspection authority, we conducted a randomized mailing experiment targeting large firms with a high propensity for employing workers informally. The authority sent letters with either deterrence messages detailing fines for non-compliance or social norms messages highlighting the positive impacts of formality. We analyzed the impact of this intervention on formal employment levels over the following two years using monthly administrative data. The treated firms (particularly those in the deterrence treatment arm) and larger firms increased their formal employment levels. However, these increases followed a seasonal pattern coinciding with the high labor demand during the tourist season, suggesting that prior to the intervention, firms were employing temporary workers informally. The higher perceived cost of non-compliance led them to formalize some of these workers. The informal hiring of seasonal workers by these firms appears to have been motivated by basic tax evasion, and the absence of a negative effect on firm-level formal employment indicates that the firms were exploiting rents from low enforcement of regulations.

在发展中国家，非正规劳动力不仅受雇于非法或未注册的公司，也受雇于雇用非正规工人的律师事务所，这被称为非正规劳动力的密集边际。减少这类工作可能对正式就业产生模棱两可的影响，这取决于企业规模和生产率等因素。我们与秘鲁劳动监察当局合作，针对非正式雇用工人倾向高的大公司进行了随机邮寄实验。当局发出的信件要么是威慑信息，详细说明对违规行为的罚款，要么是社会规范信息，强调礼节的积极影响。在接下来的两年里，我们使用每月的行政数据分析了这一干预对正式就业水平的影响。受治疗的公司（特别是那些在威慑治疗部门）和较大的公司增加了他们的正式就业水平。然而，这些增长遵循季节性模式，与旅游季节的高劳动力需求相吻合，这表明在干预之前，公司非正式地雇用临时工。不遵守规定的较高感知成本导致他们将这些工人中的一些正规化。这些公司对季节性工人的非正式雇用似乎是出于基本的逃税动机，而对公司一级的正式就业没有负面影响表明，这些公司正在利用法规执行不力带来的租金。

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引用次数: 0

Poverty and parental discipline 贫穷和父母管教

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103694

Mo Alloush , Emily Conover , Susan Godlonton

Across and within countries, there are large differences in how parents discipline their children, and frequently, poverty is associated with higher levels of physical punishment. We leverage the roll-out of a conditional cash transfer program in Peru to test whether its introduction changes parental discipline practices. We find that in districts that begin to receive the program, the average level of reported physical punishment by mothers and fathers among the poor declines by at least 2.7 percentage points (11%) driven by reductions in slapping. Our findings suggest that program participation may have additional second-order benefits through the reduction of harsh physical forms of discipline practices.

在国家之间和国家内部，父母管教孩子的方式存在很大差异，而且贫困往往与较高程度的体罚有关。我们利用秘鲁推出的有条件现金转移支付项目来测试该项目的引入是否会改变父母管教的做法。我们发现，在开始接受该计划的地区，由于打耳光的减少，报告的穷人中父母体罚的平均水平下降了至少2.7个百分点（11%）。我们的研究结果表明，通过减少严厉的身体形式的纪律实践，参与项目可能有额外的二阶好处。

引用次数: 0

Beliefs, information sharing, and mental health care use among university students 大学生信仰、信息共享与心理保健使用

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103646

Alisher Batmanov , Idaliya Grigoryeva , Bruno Calderón-Hernández , Roberto González-Téllez , Alejandro Guardiola Ramírez

This paper investigates the role of beliefs and stigma in shaping students’ use of professional mental health services at a large private university in Mexico, where supply-side barriers are minimal and services are readily accessible. In a survey experiment with 680 students, we find that nearly 50% of students in distress do not receive professional mental health support despite a high level of awareness and perceived effectiveness, constituting a substantial treatment gap. We document stigmatized beliefs and misconceptions correlated with the treatment gap. As three-quarters of students incorrectly believe that those in distress perform worse academically and that the majority of students going to therapy are in severe distress, we implement an information intervention to correct these beliefs. We find that it increases students’ sharing of on-campus mental health resources with peers and encourages them to recommend these resources when advising a friend in distress. Interestingly, we find that it lowers respondents’ willingness to pay for private therapy at the end of the intervention. Yet, this effect does not translate into a long-run reduction in self-reported therapy use 6 months after the experiment, with prior therapy users showing increased off-campus take-up.

本文调查了信仰和耻辱在墨西哥一所大型私立大学塑造学生使用专业心理健康服务的作用，在那里，供应方障碍最小，服务很容易获得。在一项针对680名学生的调查实验中，我们发现，尽管有很高的意识和感知效果，但近50%的困难学生没有得到专业的心理健康支持，这构成了巨大的治疗差距。我们记录了与治疗差距相关的污名化信念和误解。由于四分之三的学生错误地认为那些处于痛苦中的人在学业上表现更差，并且大多数去接受治疗的学生都处于严重的痛苦中，我们实施了信息干预来纠正这些信念。我们发现，这增加了学生与同龄人分享校园心理健康资源，并鼓励他们在向陷入困境的朋友提供建议时推荐这些资源。有趣的是，我们发现它降低了受访者在干预结束时支付私人治疗的意愿。然而，这种效果并没有转化为实验后6个月自我报告的治疗使用的长期减少，先前的治疗使用者显示出校外使用的增加。

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引用次数: 0

Bring a friend: Leveraging financial and peer support to improve women’s reproductive agency in India 带上朋友：利用经济和同伴支持来改善印度妇女的生殖机构

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103706

S. Anukriti , Catalina Herrera-Almanza , Mahesh Karra

Women’s agency in the domain of family planning and reproductive health is a fundamental determinant of their well-being. We experimentally evaluate two approaches aimed at improving women’s reproductive agency in India. We offered treated women subsidized family planning services at a local clinic. Additionally, we enabled a subset of treated women to invite and incentivize others to visit the clinic with them. Although the subsidy encouraged women to seek company to the clinic and increased clinic visits, combining the subsidy with the ability to leverage peer support increased women’s contraceptive use, decreased their likelihood of pregnancy, and was more effective in strengthening reproductive agency and peer engagement. Women facing greater intrahousehold opposition to contraception appeared to benefit more from peer support.

妇女在计划生育和生殖健康领域的作用是决定她们福祉的根本因素。我们通过实验评估了两种旨在改善印度妇女生殖机构的方法。我们在当地一家诊所为接受治疗的妇女提供补贴的计划生育服务。此外，我们还允许一部分接受治疗的妇女邀请并激励其他人与她们一起去诊所。虽然补贴鼓励妇女结伴到诊所就诊，增加了就诊次数，但将补贴与利用同伴支持的能力结合起来，增加了妇女避孕药具的使用，降低了她们怀孕的可能性，并更有效地加强了生殖机构和同伴参与。面对更多家庭内部反对避孕的妇女似乎从同伴的支持中获益更多。

引用次数: 0

Labor market consequences of homicides: A gender perspective from Mexico 杀人案对劳动力市场的影响：来自墨西哥的性别视角

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2026.103718

Lorenzo Aldeco Leo , Matteo F. Ghilardi , Hugo Tuesta

This paper explores how fluctuations in crime rates influence labor market outcomes in Mexico. Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates. Men are more likely to exit the labor market, while women increasingly join the workforce, mainly in the informal sector. This pattern is consistent with an added-worker effect, which we document using household-level evidence. This outcome is largely driven by the presence of drug trafficking organizations, which primarily employ men in their operations. Escalating violence also increases labor mobility, leading to higher job separations, especially among women. Our results highlight that while increasing crime in the form of homicides may not induce large changes in the aggregate level of employment, there is evidence of labor reallocation across and within sectors. This suggests an increase in labor market misallocation.

本文探讨了犯罪率波动如何影响墨西哥劳动力市场的结果。使用详细的调查数据和个人固定效应估计，分析揭示了不同的性别动态响应上升的杀人率。男性更有可能退出劳动力市场，而女性则越来越多地加入劳动力队伍，主要是在非正规部门。这种模式与“额外工人效应”是一致的，我们使用家庭层面的证据来证明这一点。造成这一结果的主要原因是毒品贩运组织的存在，这些组织主要雇用男子从事其活动。暴力升级还增加了劳动力流动性，导致更高的离职率，尤其是在女性中。我们的研究结果强调，虽然以杀人形式增加的犯罪可能不会引起总就业水平的大变化，但有证据表明，部门之间和部门内部的劳动力重新分配。这表明劳动力市场分配不当的情况有所增加。

引用次数: 0

Do resource rents drive urbanization and structural transformation? A global analysis 资源租金驱动城市化和结构转型吗？全球分析

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103709

Qing Huang , Victoria Wenxin Xie , Wei You

This paper provides the first causal estimate of the impact of mineral price changes on the local population and sectoral employment shares in a global sample of cities. We find that increases in the prices of minerals extracted from nearby mines lead to local employment reallocation away from agriculture and primarily toward low-skilled services, without crowding out manufacturing activities. While the city population grows, there is limited evidence for mining booms driving large-scale urbanization. Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa exhibit exceptionally strong responses to mining booms. These results suggest that resource-led structural transformation could present a new development path for resource-rich developing countries.

本文首次对矿产价格变化对全球城市样本中当地人口和部门就业份额的影响进行了因果估计。我们发现，从附近矿山开采的矿物价格上涨导致当地就业重新分配，从农业转向低技能服务业，而没有挤出制造业活动。虽然城市人口在增长，但很少有证据表明矿业繁荣推动了大规模城市化。撒哈拉以南非洲的城市对矿业繁荣表现出异常强烈的反应。这些结果表明，资源主导型结构转型可能为资源丰富的发展中国家提供一条新的发展道路。

引用次数: 0

Informal fiscal systems in developing countries 发展中国家的非正式财政制度

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103712

Shan Aman-Rana , Clement Minaudier , Sandip Sukhtankar

Governments in developing countries have low fiscal capacity yet face pressures to provide public goods and services, leading them to rely on various unusual fiscal arrangements. We uncover one such arrangement – informal fiscal systems that rely on local bureaucrats to fund the delivery of public goods and services – cataloging its existence in at least 20 countries. Using survey data and government accounts from Pakistan, we show that public officials are expected to cover funding gaps in public services and they do so, at least partially, through extracted bribes. We develop a model of bureaucratic agency to explore when governments benefit from sustaining such systems and investigate their implications for welfare and bureaucrat selection. Informal fiscal systems are more likely to arise when corruption is widespread but public service delivery is relatively easy to monitor. While they provide an effective second-best solution in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection, they can distort the effective incidence of the tax burden, reduce the incentives of governments to fight corruption, and legitimize bribe-taking. This makes corruption more widespread and thus makes informal systems self-reinforcing.

发展中国家的政府财政能力较低，但面临提供公共产品和服务的压力，导致它们依赖各种不同寻常的财政安排。我们发现了一种这样的安排——依靠地方官僚为公共产品和服务的提供提供资金的非正式财政体系——并对至少20个国家存在的这种安排进行了分类。我们利用巴基斯坦的调查数据和政府账户表明，政府官员有望填补公共服务的资金缺口，而他们至少在一定程度上是通过索取贿赂来做到这一点的。我们开发了一个官僚机构模型，以探索政府何时从维持这种系统中受益，并调查其对福利和官僚选择的影响。当腐败普遍存在但公共服务提供相对容易监督时，非正式财政制度更有可能出现。虽然它们在存在道德风险和逆向选择的情况下提供了一种有效的次优解决方案，但它们可能扭曲税收负担的有效发生率，降低政府打击腐败的动机，并使贿赂合法化。这使得腐败更加普遍，从而使非正式制度自我强化。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of investment promotion on multinational production: Firm-level evidence 投资促进对跨国生产的影响：公司层面的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103666

Jerónimo Carballo , Ignacio Marra de Artiñano , Christian Volpe Martincus

Countries make use of a wide range of policies to attract multinational firms, but identifying their effects is challenging. In this paper, we provide novel microeconometric evidence on the impacts of one of the most common of such policies: investment promotion. To do so, we combine firm-level data on both the location of multinational firms’ foreign affiliates and detailed service-specific information from Costa Rica’s investment promotion agency (IPA) over time. We find that IPA support significantly increases the probability that a multinational firm establishes its first affiliate in the country. We then show that this effect is particularly strong for information services and on multinational firms from home countries and in sectors potentially facing more severe information frictions.

各国利用各种各样的政策来吸引跨国公司，但确定这些政策的影响是具有挑战性的。在本文中，我们提供了新的微观计量证据，证明了最常见的此类政策之一：投资促进的影响。为此，我们结合了跨国公司海外分支机构所在地的公司层面数据，以及哥斯达黎加投资促进机构（IPA）长期提供的具体服务的详细信息。我们发现，IPA支持显著增加了跨国公司在该国建立第一家关联公司的可能性。然后我们表明，这种影响对信息服务和来自母国的跨国公司以及可能面临更严重信息摩擦的部门尤其强烈。

引用次数: 0

Get in the zone: The risk-adjusted welfare effects of data-driven vs. administrative borders for index insurance zones 进入区域：指数保险区域的数据驱动与行政边界的风险调整福利效应

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103658

Ella Kirchner , Elinor Benami , Andrew Hobbs , Michael R. Carter , Zhenong Jin

Agricultural index insurance aims to protect producers from widespread shocks within defined areas, often based on administrative boundaries. However, these boundaries may poorly reflect yield variation, imposing costs on both policyholders and the public. Advances in geospatial data accessibility and clustering techniques offer potential to define more homogeneous insurance zones. This study evaluates the impact of redrawing zone boundaries based on observed agri-environmental conditions in western Kenya. Using over 13,000 crop cut observations with satellite-based estimates on growing conditions, we assess how data-driven zones affect producer welfare in a simulated area-yield index insurance program. While some data-driven zones modestly improve risk reduction with a fixed number of zones, greater flexibility in zone number and field sampling intensity offers more potential to balance performance and cost. We present a conceptual model and empirical simulations to characterize how zone design and data collection intensity jointly shape insurance outcomes in resource-constrained settings.

农业指数保险旨在保护生产者免受特定区域（通常基于行政边界）内的广泛冲击。然而，这些边界可能不能很好地反映收益率变化，给保单持有人和公众都带来了成本。地理空间数据可访问性和聚类技术的进步为定义更均匀的保险区域提供了潜力。本研究评估了根据观察到的肯尼亚西部农业环境条件重划区域边界的影响。利用超过13000次作物减产观测和基于卫星的生长条件估计，我们评估了数据驱动区如何影响模拟面积产量指数保险计划中的生产者福利。虽然一些数据驱动的层位通过固定的层位数量适度地降低了风险，但层位数量和现场采样强度的更大灵活性提供了更大的平衡性能和成本的潜力。我们提出了一个概念模型和经验模拟，以表征区域设计和数据收集强度如何共同影响资源受限环境下的保险结果。

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引用次数: 0

CO2 emission regulation and generation allocation with heterogeneous coal-fired generators 非均质燃煤发电机组CO2排放调控与发电配置

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103711

Zhiyuan Chen , Rong Luo , Li Su

Using a generator-level framework, we analyze the impacts of different regulation levels of

{CO}_{2}

emissions on total emissions and generation costs in the China Southern Power Grid Corporation. We employ a structural approach to estimating the generator-level production functions that incorporate heterogeneous returns to scale and unobserved productivity, using a novel generator-level dataset. We find substantial heterogeneity in generation efficiency across generators, and large generators are the most efficient. Counterfactual analyses show that regulating emissions and allocating generation at a more aggregate level (province or region) can reduce total emissions and generation costs by shifting generation toward more efficient generators and plants. The generator-level framework allows for more efficient allocation than the plant-level framework.

本文采用发电机级框架，分析了不同CO2排放监管水平对南方电网公司总排放和发电成本的影响。我们采用一种结构方法来估计发电机级生产函数，该函数结合了规模和未观察到的生产率的异质性回报，使用了一个新的发电机级数据集。我们发现发电机的发电效率存在很大的异质性，大型发电机的效率最高。反事实分析表明，在更集中的水平（省或地区）调节排放和分配发电可以通过将发电转向更高效的发电机和发电厂来减少总排放和发电成本。生成器级框架允许比工厂级框架更有效的分配。

引用次数: 0

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