Journal of Development Economics最新文献

英文中文

Seasonality, academic calendar and school dropouts in South Asia 南亚的季节性、学历和辍学率

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103649

Seiro Ito , Abu S. Shonchoy

Rural families in developing countries often face a critical trade-off: keeping children in school or involving them in seasonal agricultural labor. Misaligned school calendars intensify this challenge, significantly increasing school dropout rates. Leveraging the timing of Ramadan school holidays as a natural experiment, we find that annual exams coinciding with the harvest season increase school dropout rates by 6.6 to 9.0 percentage points (from the base of 25% dropout) among children from agricultural households in Bangladesh. This effect is predominantly driven by boys who participate in peak seasonal agricultural activities. Our findings are robust to varying age cut-offs and definitions of agricultural households. Long-term analyses employing age-specific cohorts using national household surveys corroborate these results. Complementary evidence from India, exploiting state-level academic calendar variations, further supports the findings. This study underscores the importance of carefully designing school calendars in rural areas that align with local agricultural seasonality.

发展中国家的农村家庭往往面临着一个关键的权衡：让孩子上学还是让他们从事季节性农业劳动。校历不一致加剧了这一挑战，大大增加了辍学率。利用斋月学校假期的时间作为一种自然实验，我们发现，与收获季节相吻合的年度考试使孟加拉国农业家庭儿童的辍学率增加了6.6至9.0个百分点（从25%的辍学率基数）。这种影响主要是由参加季节性农业活动的男孩造成的。我们的发现对于不同的年龄界限和农业家庭的定义是稳健的。采用国家家庭调查的特定年龄队列的长期分析证实了这些结果。来自印度的补充证据进一步支持了这些发现，这些证据利用了各州的学历差异。这项研究强调了精心设计符合当地农业季节性的农村地区校历的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Unreliable firms: Evidence from Rwanda 不可靠的公司：来自卢旺达的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103611

Vishan Gandhi Nigam , Brandon Joel Tan

This paper measures reliability – whether firms execute transactions on-schedule – for the universe of Rwandan formal firms using transaction timing data and describes the characteristics of reliable firms. Reliable firms have larger interfirm sales, export more, supply exporters and multinationals, and transact with other reliable firms. Reliable firms are less sensitive to supply chain disruptions. Supplying an MNC increases seller reliability even when servicing non-MNC buyers.

本文利用交易时间数据测量了卢旺达正规企业的可靠性——企业是否按计划执行交易，并描述了可靠企业的特征。可靠的公司有更大的公司间销售，出口更多，供应出口商和跨国公司，并与其他可靠的公司进行交易。可靠的公司对供应链中断不那么敏感。即使在为非跨国公司的买家提供服务时，提供跨国公司也会增加卖家的可靠性。

引用次数: 0

Unveiling the Cosmic Race: Skin tone and intergenerational economic disparities in Latin America and the Caribbean 揭示宇宙种族：拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的肤色和代际经济差距

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103594

L. Guillermo Woo-Mora

This paper examines how skin tone shapes intergenerational economic disparities across 25 Latin American and Caribbean countries. First, it analyzes the distribution of ethnoracial identities and skin tone, confirming Mestizo predominance and revealing how broad categories obscure substantial phenotypic diversity. Second, it documents non-linear gaps in income and education, with darker skin tones consistently linked to economic disadvantages. A variance decomposition shows that skin tone explains significant within-group variation, offering explanatory power beyond self-reported ethnoracial categories. Finally, using mothers’ education as a benchmark, the study provides novel cross-country evidence on skin tone gaps in absolute educational intergenerational mobility, revealing barriers to upward mobility for darker-skinned individuals. Robustness checks with machine-assessed skin tone data from Mexico, incorporating additional parental and contextual controls, confirm these disparities. These findings underscore the need to account for phenotypic variation when studying economic inequality in Latin America.

本文研究了肤色如何影响25个拉丁美洲和加勒比国家的代际经济差异。首先，它分析了种族身份和肤色的分布，证实了混血儿的优势，并揭示了广泛的类别如何掩盖了实质性的表型多样性。其次，它记录了收入和教育方面的非线性差距，深色肤色始终与经济劣势联系在一起。方差分解表明，肤色解释了显著的组内差异，提供了超越自我报告的种族类别的解释力。最后，以母亲的受教育程度为基准，该研究为绝对教育代际流动中的肤色差距提供了新的跨国证据，揭示了肤色较深的个体向上流动的障碍。对来自墨西哥的机器评估肤色数据进行稳健性检查，并结合额外的父母和环境控制，证实了这些差异。这些发现强调了在研究拉丁美洲的经济不平等时需要考虑表型变异。

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引用次数: 0

Migration and sources of discrimination in a social context: Experimental evidence from 15 Latin American countries 社会背景下的移民和歧视来源：来自15个拉丁美洲国家的实验证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103633

Carlos Gomez-Gonzalez , Gwen-Jirō Clochard , Helmut Dietl , Juan Cruz Duhalde

This paper considers two types of statistical discrimination: individual (productivity) and compositional (team fit). We conduct a large-scale correspondence study in 15 Latin American countries in the context of sports to test their influence on individual behavior. We send over 10,000 applications to male amateur soccer clubs and ask them to participate in a practice session. Each club receives one application, randomly varying the applicant's origin and signals about individual and compositional productivity. We find no evidence of discrimination against immigrants overall, but we observe heterogeneity that is consistent with individual statistical discrimination. Productivity signals have no significant influence.

本文考虑了两种类型的统计歧视：个人（生产率）和组成（团队配合）。我们在15个拉丁美洲国家进行了大规模的函授研究，在体育的背景下，测试他们对个人行为的影响。我们向男性业余足球俱乐部发送了1万多份申请，并要求他们参加一次训练课。每个俱乐部收到一份申请，随机改变申请人的来源和关于个人和组成生产力的信号。我们没有发现对移民整体歧视的证据，但我们观察到与个体统计歧视一致的异质性。生产率信号没有显著影响。

引用次数: 0

Downstream impacts of mines on agriculture in Africa 地雷对非洲农业的下游影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103671

Lukas Vashold , Gustav Pirich , Maximilian Heinze , Nikolas Kuschnig

Mining operations in Africa are expanding rapidly, creating negative externalities that remain poorly understood. In this paper, we provide causal evidence for the impact of water pollution from mines on downstream vegetation and agriculture across the continent. We exploit a natural experiment, where mines cause a discontinuity in water pollution along river networks, to compare vegetation health in upstream and downstream locations. We find that mines significantly reduce peak vegetation downstream by 1.3–1.5%, impairing the productivity of over 74,000 km² of croplands. These reductions correspond to annual losses of 91,000–205,000 tons of cereal crops in the immediate vicinity alone, with particularly severe effects in fertile regions and areas where gold mining predominates. Our findings highlight substantial externalities of mining and demonstrate an urgent need for oversight and regulation.

非洲的采矿业务正在迅速扩大，造成的负面外部性仍不为人所知。在本文中，我们提供了因果证据的影响，从矿山水污染下游植被和农业在整个大陆。我们利用一项自然实验，在该实验中，矿山造成河网沿线水污染的不连续性，以比较上游和下游地区的植被健康状况。研究发现，矿山显著降低了下游植被峰值1.3-1.5%，影响了超过7.4万平方公里农田的生产力。这些减少相当于仅在邻近地区每年损失91,000-205,000吨谷类作物，对肥沃地区和金矿开采占主导地位的地区的影响尤其严重。我们的研究结果强调了采矿的大量外部性，并表明迫切需要进行监督和监管。

引用次数: 0

Do bilateral labor agreements increase migration? Global evidence from 1960 to 2020 双边劳动协议会增加移民吗？1960年至2020年的全球证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103673

Maheshwor Shrestha , Heidi Kaila , Narcisse Cha’ngom , Samik Adhikari

We use comprehensive data on bilateral labor agreements (BLAs) and migration across all country pairs from 1960 to 2020 to estimate the impact of BLAs on migration. In our preferred specification, which includes a rich set of fixed effects, BLAs increase migration by 68 percent (or 0.52 log points) within a decade. Among regular corridors—those with at least ten migrants in each period of the sample—migration increases by 21 percent (or 0.19 log points). Effects are stronger for BLAs involving low- and lower-middle-income origin countries, but are negligible for origin countries in Africa, likely driven by weaker institutional capacity for implementation. Our estimates imply substantial welfare gains through increased migrant earnings. Low- and lower-middle-income countries can gain US$116 million annually from a BLA with a regular destination. If countries in sub-Saharan Africa were to experience similar effects, welfare gains could be as high as US$54 million annually.

我们使用1960年至2020年所有国家对双边劳动协议（BLAs）和移民的综合数据来估计BLAs对移民的影响。在我们的首选规范中，它包括一组丰富的固定效果，bla在十年内将迁移增加68%（或0.52个对数点）。在常规走廊中，即在样本的每个时期至少有10名移民的走廊，移民增加了21%（或0.19个对数点）。涉及低收入和中低收入原产国的bla的影响更强，但对非洲原产国的影响可以忽略不计，这可能是由于实施机构能力较弱所致。我们的估计表明，移民收入的增加带来了实质性的福利收益。低收入和中低收入国家每年可从定期目的地的国际移民贷款中获益1.16亿美元。如果撒哈拉以南非洲国家经历类似的影响，福利收益每年可能高达5400万美元。

引用次数: 0

Narrowing or widening the gender gap in market and domestic work? The impact of workweek reduction reform in China 缩小还是扩大市场和家务劳动中的性别差距？工作周减少改革对中国的影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103672

Ang Sun , Wei Sun , Wang Xiang , Huili Zhang , Junsen Zhang

We investigate whether shorter working hours can narrow the gender gap in market and domestic work by examining the impact of China's workweek reduction policy. We find that the policy deepened the gender division of labor within dual-employee households, resulting in women further leaning toward familial roles. Specifically, women allocated more time to childcare and other household chores, while men withdrew from these domestic duties, worked longer hours beyond the designated schedule, and pursued higher education. This shift contributed to improved income and career advancement for men, whereas women did not experience similar improvements. The impact of this polarized gender division of labor was particularly pronounced in households with higher demands for domestic product consumption or with higher male-female wage ratios prior to the reform. Our analysis demonstrates that under the shortened working hours system, families' optimization behavior manifests as a deepened household specialization aimed at maximizing household consumption, suggesting that the reduction in working hours may exacerbate labor market gender inequality.

我们通过考察中国减少工作周政策的影响来研究缩短工作时间是否可以缩小市场和家务劳动中的性别差距。我们发现，该政策加深了双职工家庭中的性别分工，导致女性进一步倾向于家庭角色。具体来说，女性将更多的时间分配给照顾孩子和其他家务，而男性则从这些家务中抽身出来，在指定的时间表之外工作更长时间，并追求更高的教育。这一转变有助于提高男性的收入和职业发展，而女性没有经历类似的改善。这种两极化的两性劳动分工的影响在改革前对国内产品消费需求较高或男女工资比较高的家庭中尤为明显。我们的分析表明，在缩短工作时间制度下，家庭的优化行为表现为以家庭消费最大化为目标的深化的家庭专业化，这表明工作时间的减少可能加剧劳动力市场的性别不平等。

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引用次数: 0

Mining policy reform and civil conflict: Evidence from Myanmar 矿业政策改革与国内冲突：来自缅甸的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103608

Nan Sandi

This paper inverts the standard resource-conflict paradigm by examining how resource contraction, rather than expansion, affects civil violence. Exploiting a 2016 moratorium in Myanmar that halted new mining licenses, I implement a difference-in-differences strategy using a novel spatially disaggregated database linking mining activity with geo-coded conflict events from 2011–2020. The contraction led to a 69% reduction in conflict incidents — particularly violent and fatal events — in previously licensed townships. The effects were stronger in ethnic homelands, poorer areas, and remote regions. Strikingly, the analysis uncovers positive spatial spillovers: conflict also declined in neighboring non-mining areas, suggesting that reduced resource extraction diffuses peace rather than displacing violence. Evidence supports three mechanisms: (1) lower mineral rents constrained armed group financing; (2) labor reallocation to productive sectors increased the opportunity cost of violence; and (3) reduced elite rents mitigated local inequality, dampening grievance-based mobilization.

本文通过考察资源收缩而非扩张如何影响国内暴力，颠覆了标准的资源冲突范式。利用2016年缅甸暂停发放新采矿许可证的禁令，我使用了一种新的空间分解数据库，将采矿活动与2011-2020年的地理编码冲突事件联系起来，实施了差异中的差异策略。这一收缩导致冲突事件减少了69%，特别是暴力和致命事件，在以前获得许可的城镇。这种影响在少数民族聚居区、贫困地区和偏远地区更为明显。引人注目的是，该分析揭示了积极的空间溢出效应：邻近非矿区的冲突也有所减少，这表明资源开采的减少扩散了和平，而不是取代了暴力。证据支持三种机制：(1)较低的矿产租金限制了武装团体的融资；(2)劳动力向生产部门的再分配增加了暴力的机会成本；(3)精英阶层租金的降低缓解了当地的不平等，抑制了基于不满的动员。

引用次数: 0

Trade policy and exporters’ resilience: Evidence from Indonesia 贸易政策与出口商的韧性：来自印度尼西亚的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103561

Massimiliano Calì , Simón Caicedo Graciano , Devaki Ghose , Angella Faith Montfaucon , Michele Ruta

How does trade policy affect exporters’ ability to source intermediate inputs and adjust exports in response to foreign shocks? The analysis exploits new disaggregated, time-varying data on non-tariff measures (NTMs) faced by Indonesian firms. In response to a depreciation of the Yuan, which makes Chinese exports more competitive in third markets, Indonesian firms facing NTMs on their inputs see a much larger drop in their export values compared to firms that do not face any NTMs, with the magnitude of this effect varying depending on the type of NTM. We show that this difference can be explained by the inability of firms facing NTMs to take advantage of cheaper intermediate inputs from China in the face of depreciations of the Yuan, consistent with a model where NTMs impose fixed costs of import. These findings suggest that reforming some types of import NTMs can positively affect exporters’ resilience.

贸易政策如何影响出口商采购中间投入和调整出口以应对外国冲击的能力？该分析利用了印尼企业面临的非关税措施（ntm）的新分类、时变数据。人民币贬值使中国出口产品在第三市场上更具竞争力，因此，与没有NTM的企业相比，投入面临NTM的印尼企业的出口价值下降幅度要大得多，这种影响的程度取决于NTM的类型。我们的研究表明，这种差异可以解释为面对新关税机制的企业在面对人民币贬值时无法利用来自中国的更便宜的中间投入，这与新关税机制施加固定进口成本的模型相一致。这些发现表明，改革某些类型的进口非关税机制可以对出口商的抵御能力产生积极影响。

引用次数: 0

Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets 留下还是选择退出？中国婚姻市场的挤压、错配和过剩

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629

Pauline Rossi , Yun Xiao

Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder.

中国的结婚率正在下降。在单身人士中，2019年结婚的可能性是1999年结婚的一半。我们使用人口普查数据估算了Choo和Siow （2006b）模型，以量化人口结构变化和婚姻剩余（即婚姻价值）变化的相对作用。我们发现，受教育人数的增加解释了一半的下降，部分原因是受过高等教育的女性和受教育程度较低的男性之间的不匹配。男女比例的恶化，即所谓的“婚姻挤压”，解释了男性多出13%的原因。剩余部分的原因是盈余的减少。

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Journal of Development Economics

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