Journal of Development Economics最新文献

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Frosty climate, icy relationships: Cold and intimate partner violence in Peru 寒冷的气候，冰冷的关系：秘鲁的寒冷和亲密伴侣暴力

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103710

Katie Bollman , Judhajit Chakraborty , Leah K. Lakdawala , Eduardo Nakasone

Violence against women – in particular, Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) – is a health concern for women across the world. We study the effect of cold exposure on IPV among Peruvian women. Using a dataset that matches women to weather exposure, we find that cold shocks increase IPV: 10 degree hours below -9 °C increases the probability of experiencing domestic violence by 0.5 percentage points. These effects are larger for more extreme temperature thresholds. We provide evidence that cold influences IPV through two main channels. First, extreme cold reduces income. Second, extreme cold limits time spent outside of the household, potentially increasing exposure of women to violent partners. To our knowledge, we are the first to measure relative significance of these two channels by using variation in cold timing to distinguish shocks that affect IPV through changes in income from those that act through time spent indoors. We find that the effect of cold on IPV is mostly driven by low temperatures that occur during the agricultural growing season, when income is most affected; 10 degree hours below -9 °C during the growing season increases the probability of experiencing IPV by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, we find that cold exposure outside of the growing season has no statistically significant effect on IPV.

对妇女的暴力行为，特别是亲密伴侣暴力，是全世界妇女关注的一个健康问题。我们研究了寒冷暴露对秘鲁妇女IPV的影响。使用将女性与天气暴露相匹配的数据集，我们发现冷冲击会增加IPV：低于-9°C的10度小时会使遭受家庭暴力的可能性增加0.5个百分点。对于更极端的温度阈值，这些影响更大。我们提供的证据表明，寒冷影响IPV通过两个主要渠道。首先，极端寒冷会减少收入。其次，极端寒冷限制了她们走出家庭的时间，这可能会增加女性面对暴力伴侣的风险。据我们所知，我们是第一个测量这两个渠道的相对重要性，通过使用冷时间的变化来区分通过收入变化影响IPV的冲击和通过在室内度过的时间影响IPV的冲击。研究发现，寒冷对IPV的影响主要是由农业生长季节的低温驱动的，此时对收入的影响最大；在生长季节，低于-9°C的10度小时会使经历IPV的可能性增加1.6个百分点。相比之下，我们发现生长季节以外的寒冷暴露对IPV没有统计学上显著的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Resisting social conformity pressure: Impact of a gender norms intervention for adolescents in Somalia 抵制社会从众压力：性别规范干预对索马里青少年的影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103713

Rajdev Brar , Niklas Buehren , Sreelakshmi Papineni , Munshi Sulaiman

Using a randomized controlled trial, this paper evaluates the impact of a gender norms intervention for young adolescents in Somalia. The program leads to greater support for gender equality in the privately reported attitudes of girls and boys; with further positive effects on mental health, aspirations, and boys’ engagement in housework. A novel lab-in-the-field experiment is used to observe social group dynamics among adolescent peers to examine the program’s impact on receptivity to social conformity. We adopt Asch-inspired conformity measures to demonstrate a treatment effect on conformity in gender beliefs (when stated publicly) versus conformity in a more general class of publicly stated beliefs as a placebo test. We find that private changes in gender beliefs lead to differences in an adolescent’s willingness to conform to group beliefs. Treated adolescents are less likely to succumb to peer pressure to conform when stating their gender attitudes in public, leading to greater public expression of egalitarian ideals. The effects on conformity are observed only for the gender norms domain. Our findings suggest that social norms interventions can be effective in positively shaping gender attitudes, helping to empower adolescents to withstand normative pressures.

本文采用随机对照试验，评估性别规范干预对索马里青少年的影响。该项目在私下报告的女孩和男孩的态度方面为性别平等提供了更大的支持；对心理健康、志向和男孩参与家务有进一步的积极影响。本研究采用一种新颖的实地实验室实验，观察青少年同伴的社会群体动态，以检验该计划对社会从众接受性的影响。我们采用asch启发的从众措施来证明对性别信仰的从众（当公开陈述时）的治疗效果，而对更一般的公开陈述信仰的从众作为安慰剂测试。我们发现，个人性别信仰的改变会导致青少年遵从群体信仰意愿的差异。接受治疗的青少年在公开表达自己的性别态度时，不太可能屈从于同伴的压力，从而更大程度地公开表达平等主义的理想。对从众的影响只在性别规范领域被观察到。我们的研究结果表明，社会规范干预可以有效地积极塑造性别态度，帮助青少年承受规范压力。

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引用次数: 0

Aging in Haze 雾霾中的老化

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103717

Runhao Zhao , Ye Yuan , Chong Liu , Junjian Yi

We study how the environment shapes aging. Leveraging a natural experiment in China where coal-powered winter heating caused persistently higher levels of particulate matters (PMs) north of a policy boundary for over three decades, we find that prolonged PM exposure accelerates aging beyond the biological age, leading to higher rates of multiple chronic conditions, functional disabilities, and cognitive decline in the working-age population. These effects were dormant in the early adulthood, emerged and developed rapidly in age 40s to 50s, and persisted long after exposure ends. Older cohorts experience faster and more enduring aging effects than younger ones under the same exposure, indicating greater life-cycle vulnerability to pollution-induced aging. We highlight that sustained PM exposure accelerates aging and exacerbates physical and cognitive decline in the working-age population.

我们研究环境如何影响衰老。利用在中国进行的一项自然实验，在中国，燃煤冬季供暖导致政策边界以北的颗粒物（PM）水平持续升高超过30年，我们发现，长时间暴露于PM会加速超出生物年龄的衰老，导致工作年龄人口中多种慢性病、功能残疾和认知能力下降的比例更高。这些影响在成年早期处于休眠状态，在40岁至50岁时迅速出现并发展，并在接触结束后持续很长时间。在同样的暴露条件下，老年人比年轻人经历的衰老效应更快、更持久，这表明在生命周期中更容易受到污染引起的衰老的影响。我们强调，持续暴露于PM会加速衰老，加剧劳动年龄人口的身体和认知能力下降。

引用次数: 0

The global software production network 全球软件生产网络

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103708

Carlo Birkholz , David Gomtsyan

Can developing countries benefit from exporting opportunities in the growing sector of tradable services, given the near free information flow via the internet and wage differentials relative to developed countries? Focusing on the software development industry, we analyze data from 2.68 million software projects across 5200 locations, and estimate an economic geography model in which locations trade tasks. The results reveal three factors limiting exports: (i) significant productivity differences within and between countries; (ii) a notable decline in trade volumes with distance; (iii) sorting patterns among software developers that are suggestive of brain drain.

考虑到通过互联网几乎自由的信息流动和相对于发达国家的工资差异，发展中国家能否从不断增长的可贸易服务部门的出口机会中受益？专注于软件开发行业，我们分析了来自5200个地点的268万个软件项目的数据，并估计了一个地点交易任务的经济地理模型。结果揭示了限制出口的三个因素：(1)国家内部和国家之间显著的生产率差异；（ii）贸易量随距离显著下降；（iii）软件开发人员之间的分类模式暗示着人才流失。

引用次数: 0

Feeling the same heat? Urban–rural inequalities in adapting to extreme temperatures via electricity consumption 感受同样的热度？通过电力消耗来适应极端温度的城乡不平等

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103692

Caiquan Bai , Jing Cao , Ming Huang , Chen Xi , Peng Zhang

This paper leverages novel high-frequency electricity consumption data to examine whether urban and rural residents in China are adapting unevenly to short-run extreme heat shocks and long-run climate warming. We demonstrate that both urban and rural groups increase their electricity consumption during transient day-to-day extreme heat events, with the former showing significantly stronger responses, thus revealing a notable adaptation inequality. We document the existence of the urban heat island, but its role in explaining the observed urban–rural adaptation disparity is negligible. Instead, the more fundamental urban–rural real income gap, closely tied to adaptive capacity, almost entirely accounts for the observed difference. In the long run, we find that climate warming over the past 5–20 years significantly promotes adaptation strategy in urban and rural groups, but no evident disparity is observed between these groups. Rural residents have experienced higher income growth over the past decade, which enabled them to afford durable adaptive equipment that is on par with that of their urban counterparts.

本文利用新颖的高频电力消费数据来研究中国城乡居民对短期极端高温冲击和长期气候变暖的适应是否不均衡。研究表明，城市和农村群体在短暂的日常极端高温事件中都增加了用电量，前者表现出明显更强的响应，从而揭示了显著的适应不平等。我们记录了城市热岛的存在，但其在解释观察到的城乡适应差异中的作用可以忽略不计。相反，与适应能力密切相关的更根本的城乡实际收入差距几乎完全解释了观察到的差异。从长期来看，过去5 ~ 20年气候变暖显著促进了城市和农村群体的适应策略，但两者之间没有明显差异。过去十年，农村居民的收入增长较快，这使他们能够负担得起与城市居民相当的耐用适应性设备。

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引用次数: 0

Public procurement and firms: Evidence from Kenya 公共采购和企业：来自肯尼亚的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103688

Justice Tei Mensah , Peter Chacha Wankuru , Benard K. Kirui

How important is government business to the private sector in developing economies? We use administrative tax data on firm-to-firm transactions in Kenya to examine the effects of becoming a government contractor on firm performance. Using an event study design, we document significant gains from becoming a supplier to a government entity. Four years later, beneficiary firms experience a 27% increase in productivity and employ 10% more. These effects are somewhat comparable to the gains from joining a multinational supply chain. Beneficiary firms also expand their trading networks to other private firms. Relaxing credit constraints and improving resilience to shocks are likely operative channels of impact. These findings highlight the potential welfare gains from improving efficiency in public procurement.

在发展中经济体，政府业务对私营部门有多重要？我们使用肯尼亚企业间交易的行政税收数据来检验成为政府承包商对企业绩效的影响。使用事件研究设计，我们记录了成为政府实体供应商的重大收益。四年后，受益企业的生产率提高了27%，雇员增加了10%。这些影响在某种程度上与加入跨国供应链的收益相当。受益公司还将其贸易网络扩展到其他私营公司。放松信贷约束和提高抗冲击能力可能是有效的影响渠道。这些发现突出了提高公共采购效率所带来的潜在福利收益。

引用次数: 0

Kinship ties in politics and response to extreme weather shocks 政治上的亲属关系和对极端天气冲击的反应

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103716

Charles Irvin S. Siriban

It is well-established that ties between politicians influence the distribution of public resources, particularly in policy domains where officials enjoy substantial discretion. Other policy areas, such as disaster response, have more limited scope for discretionary targeting. To what extent does political alliance influence the allocation of resources in these settings? Focusing on the case of the Philippines, I examine if kinship ties between two major local politicians – provincial governor and congressperson – influence the response to typhoon shocks. Using a close-election regression discontinuity design, I find that kin-connected governors respond better than other governors to strong typhoon shocks. I argue that the effect can be explained by both supply and demand channels. I find suggestive evidence that governors leverage their connections to congresspersons to request more assistance from the national government. Furthermore, voters reward kin-connected governors for their response to strong typhoons. These results provide a lower-bound estimate on the effects of political alliances on the allocation of fiscal resources.

众所周知，政治家之间的关系会影响公共资源的分配，特别是在官员享有很大自由裁量权的政策领域。其他政策领域，如灾害应对，自由选择目标的范围更为有限。在这些情况下，政治联盟对资源配置的影响有多大？以菲律宾为例，我考察了当地两位主要政治家——省长和国会议员——之间的亲属关系是否会影响对台风冲击的反应。利用近距离选举回归不连续设计，我发现亲缘关系省长比其他省长对强台风的反应更好。我认为这种效应可以用供给渠道和需求渠道来解释。我发现有证据表明，州长利用他们与国会议员的关系向国家政府请求更多援助。此外，选民还会奖励有亲属关系的州长对强台风的反应。这些结果为政治联盟对财政资源配置的影响提供了一个下限估计。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “The impact of female political leadership on gender attitudes: Evidence from Taiwan's local councils” [J. Dev. Econ. Volume 174, May 2025, 103451] “女性政治领导对性别态度的影响：来自台湾地方议会的证据”[J]。Dev,经济学。第174卷，2025年5月，103451]

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103696

Yen-Chien Chen , Elliott Fan , Yu-Hsin Ho , Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee , Jin-Tan Liu

引用次数: 0

Expressways, market access, and industrial development in China: Using walled-city panel instrumental variables of minimum spanning tree 高速公路、市场准入与中国产业发展：基于最小生成树的城墙城市面板工具变量

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103707

Kecen Jing , Wen-Chi Liao

Emerging countries like China have heavily invested in motorways to improve market access. Such transport network expansion can affect regional industrial development, but causal inference is challenging. Existing studies typically focus on longer-term effects or exclude economically important locations, lacking an identification strategy that can address rapid transport development and cover the country's entire economic geography. To fill this gap, we introduce quasi-random Walled-City MST Panel IVs to instrument market access and examine how China's rapidly expanding expressway network affects manufacturing development. The IVs are generated by simulating dynamic expansion paths of hypothetical networks that ultimately connect all target locations predicted by 1820 city-wall characteristics. Research verifies IV orthogonality and inclusion and exclusion restrictions in both static and dynamic aspects. It conducts horse races between cross-sectional and panel IVs, and between IVs with or without historical city-wall data. The panel IV strategy is useful when both transportation development and economic growth are rapid. Excluding locations is unnecessary. County-level analysis shows that during 2000–2009, when market access improved by 1 %, manufacturing GDP and firm count increased by 0.28 % and 0.07 %. Manufacturers' average output, capital, and labor increased by 0.08 %, 0.06 %, and 0.03 %. There were impacts on regional decentralization, industrial upgrade, and geographic concentration of manufacturers. Trade elasticity is estimated. A model of market access derives estimable equations and rationalizes the economics, with the assumptions of inelastic residential and industrial land supply and mobile capital and labor.

中国等新兴国家大力投资高速公路，以改善市场准入。这种交通网络扩张会影响区域产业发展，但因果推理具有挑战性。现有的研究通常侧重于长期影响或排除经济上重要的地点，缺乏能够解决快速交通发展和覆盖国家整个经济地理的确定战略。为了填补这一空白，我们引入了准随机的城墙城市MST面板iv来测量市场准入，并研究了中国快速扩张的高速公路网络如何影响制造业发展。IVs是通过模拟假想网络的动态扩展路径生成的，该网络最终连接由1820城墙特征预测的所有目标位置。研究从静态和动态两个方面验证了IV的正交性以及包含和排除限制。它在横断面和面板IVs之间，以及在有或没有历史城墙数据的IVs之间进行赛马。当交通发展和经济增长都很迅速时，第四组战略是有用的。排除位置是不必要的。县级分析表明，2000-2009年，市场准入每提高1%，制造业生产总值和企业数量分别增长0.28%和0.07%。制造商的平均产出、资本和劳动力分别增长了0.08%、0.06%和0.03%。对区域分散化、产业升级和制造业地理集聚产生影响。贸易弹性是估计的。市场准入模型在假定住宅和工业用地供应无弹性以及资本和劳动力流动的情况下，推导出可估计的方程，并使经济学合理化。

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A parsimonious approach to predicting income distributions 一种预测收入分配的节俭方法

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103695

Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Marta Schoch, Christoph Lakner, Minh Cong Nguyen

This paper develops a method to predict comparable income and consumption distributions for all countries in the world from a simple regression with a handful of country-level variables. To fit the model, the analysis uses around 2,000 distributions from household surveys covering 168 countries from the World Bank's Poverty and Inequality Platform. More than 1,000 economic, demographic, and remote sensing predictors from multiple databases are used to test the models. A model is selected that balances out-of-sample accuracy, simplicity, and the share of countries for which it can be applied. The paper finds that a parsimonious model relying on gross domestic product per capita, under-5 mortality rate, life expectancy, and rural population share gives almost the same accuracy as a complex machine learning model using 1,000 indicators jointly. This small set of basic indicators related to human development explains most cross-country variation in income distributions and can facilitate distributional analysis even in countries with extreme data deprivation.

本文发展了一种方法来预测可比收入和消费分布的世界上所有国家从一个简单的回归与少数国家层面的变量。为了拟合该模型，该分析使用了来自世界银行贫困与不平等平台覆盖168个国家的家庭调查的约2000个分布。来自多个数据库的1000多个经济、人口和遥感预测者被用于测试这些模型。选择一个模型，以平衡样本外准确性、简单性和可以应用该模型的国家的比例。该论文发现，一个依赖于人均国内生产总值、5岁以下儿童死亡率、预期寿命和农村人口比例的简约模型，与一个共同使用1000个指标的复杂机器学习模型几乎具有相同的准确性。这一套与人类发展有关的基本指标解释了收入分配的大多数跨国差异，甚至可以在数据极度匮乏的国家促进分配分析。

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