Journal of Development Economics最新文献

英文中文

The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict 国内冲突造成的贸易迁移现象持续存在

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103376

This paper examines the lasting impact of civil conflicts on bilateral trade flows and the subsequent implications for economic recovery. Utilizing a novel estimation approach based on the structural gravity model of international trade, we demonstrate that importers shift their trade preferences away from exporters involved in civil conflicts. This effect persists even after the conflict has been resolved, as countries solidify their relocation decisions by reducing bilateral trade costs with alternative trading partners through Preferential Trade Agreements. Notably, the persistent trade relocation is more pronounced in the manufacturing sector, while it does not occur in the fuels sector. Our findings underscore the significance of supportive trade policies as effective tools for assisting nations in recovering from episodes of political violence. Furthermore, our estimation approach can be adapted to investigate the impacts of other unilateral shocks, such as natural disasters, or to analyze various bilateral dependent variables, including migration.

本文探讨了国内冲突对双边贸易流动的持久影响以及随后对经济复苏的影响。利用基于国际贸易结构重力模型的新颖估算方法，我们证明了进口商会转移其贸易偏好，远离卷入国内冲突的出口商。这种效应甚至在冲突解决后依然存在，因为各国通过优惠贸易协定降低了与替代贸易伙伴的双边贸易成本，从而巩固了它们的迁移决策。值得注意的是，持续的贸易转移在制造业部门更为明显，而在燃料部门则没有发生。我们的研究结果表明，支持性贸易政策是帮助国家从政治暴力事件中恢复的有效工具。此外，我们的估算方法还可用于研究自然灾害等其他单边冲击的影响，或分析包括移民在内的各种双边因变量。

引用次数: 0

Young women in cities: Urbanization and gender-biased migration 城市中的年轻女性：城市化和有性别偏见的移民

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103378

Young women outnumber young men in cities in many countries during periods of economic growth and urbanization. This gender imbalance among young urbanites is more pronounced in larger cities. We use the gradual rollout of Special Economic Zones across China as a quasi-experiment to establish the causal impact of urbanization on gender-differentiated incentives to migrate. We highlight the role of the marriage market in increasing rural women’s chance of marrying and marrying up in urban areas during rapid urbanization.

在经济增长和城市化时期，许多国家城市中的年轻女性人数超过了年轻男性。城市青年中的这种性别失衡现象在大城市中更为明显。我们将经济特区在中国的逐步推广作为一个准实验，以确定城市化对不同性别移民动机的因果影响。我们强调了在快速城市化过程中，婚姻市场在增加农村妇女嫁入和嫁到城市的机会方面所起的作用。

引用次数: 0

Robots as guardians: Industrial automation and workplace safety in China 机器人是守护者：中国的工业自动化与工作场所安全

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103381

Industrial robots can improve workplace safety by performing hazardous tasks on behalf of workers. This paper examines the impact of industrial robots on workplace safety in China. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in robot exposure reduces annual workplace accidents and fatalities by 0.100 and 0.0133 cases per thousand population, compared to sample averages of 0.122 accidents and 0.0351 fatalities. These findings are robust to an instrumental variable strategy and various robustness checks. Our analysis of injuries in household surveys and Baidu search activities reinforces these results. Using an accounting framework, we show that the safety improvement is not driven by the mechanical effects of robot-induced employment reduction. Instead, within-occupation improvement in workplace safety plays a more crucial role.

工业机器人可以代替工人执行危险任务，从而改善工作场所的安全状况。本文研究了工业机器人对中国工作场所安全的影响。我们发现，与样本平均值 0.122 起事故和 0.0351 起死亡事故相比，每千人口中机器人接触率每增加一个标准差，每年的工伤事故和死亡事故就会分别减少 0.100 起和 0.0133 起。这些发现对工具变量策略和各种稳健性检验都是稳健的。我们对住户调查和百度搜索活动中的伤害事故进行的分析进一步证实了这些结果。利用核算框架，我们发现安全状况的改善并不是由机器人导致的就业减少的机械效应驱动的。相反，职业内部的工作场所安全改善起到了更关键的作用。

引用次数: 0

Poverty mapping in the age of machine learning 机器学习时代的贫困分布图

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103377

Recent years have witnessed considerable methodological advances in poverty mapping, much of which has focused on the application of modern machine-learning approaches to remotely-sensed data. Poverty maps produced with these methods generally share a common validation procedure, which assesses model performance by comparing sub-national poverty estimates with survey-based, direct estimates. While unbiased, direct estimates can be imprecise measures of true poverty rates, meaning that it is unclear whether these validation procedures are informative of actual model performance. In this paper, we use a rich dataset from Mexico to provide a more rigorous assessment of the modern approach to poverty mapping by evaluating its performance against a credible ground truth. We find that the modern method under-performs relative to benchmark traditional methods, largely because of the limited predictive capacity of remotely-sensed covariates. For a given covariate set, we also find that machine learning produces more biased poverty estimates than the traditional procedures, particularly for the poorest geographic areas.

近年来，绘制贫困地图的方法有了长足的进步，其中大部分侧重于将现代机器学习方法应用于遥感数据。使用这些方法绘制的贫困地图一般都有一个共同的验证程序，即通过比较国家以下各级的贫困估计值和基于调查的直接估计值来评估模型的性能。直接估计值虽然没有偏差，但对真实贫困率的衡量可能并不精确，这意味着这些验证程序是否能说明模型的实际性能尚不清楚。在本文中，我们利用墨西哥丰富的数据集，通过对照可信的基本事实来评估现代贫困测绘方法的性能，从而对其进行更严格的评估。我们发现，相对于基准传统方法，现代方法表现不佳，这主要是因为遥感协变量的预测能力有限。对于给定的协变量集，我们还发现，与传统方法相比，机器学习方法产生的贫困估计值更有偏差，尤其是在最贫困的地理区域。

引用次数: 0

The quiet revolution: Send-down movement and female empowerment in China 静悄悄的革命：中国的下放运动和女性赋权

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103379

What promotes female empowerment and gender equality? We investigate how internal population mobility and social interaction foster the advancement of female empowerment and gender equality across diverse subpopulations. Using the urban-to-rural youth resettlement program in China during the 1970s — the Send-down Movement — as our empirical context, we find that rural females with greater exposure to urban youths have achieved higher levels of education, increased labor force participation, greater financial independence, enhanced autonomy in marital and fertility decisions, increased political engagement, heightened self-confidence, reduced risk aversion, and a stronger belief in gender-equal ideologies and social values. Our findings underscore the role of population mobility in disseminating gender-equal ideologies and practices, both through human capital formation and social interactions, leading to lasting impacts on female empowerment in traditional societies.

是什么促进了女性赋权和性别平等？我们研究了内部人口流动和社会互动如何在不同亚人群中促进女性赋权和性别平等。以 20 世纪 70 年代中国的城市到农村青年安置计划--"送下乡运动"--为实证背景，我们发现，与城市青年接触较多的农村女性受教育程度更高、劳动力参与率更高、经济独立性更高、婚姻和生育决策自主性更高、政治参与度更高、自信心增强、风险规避程度降低，并且更加相信性别平等的意识形态和社会价值观。我们的研究结果强调了人口流动在通过人力资本形成和社会互动传播性别平等意识形态和实践方面的作用，从而对传统社会中的女性赋权产生持久影响。

引用次数: 0

The abolition of People’s Communes and fertility decline in rural China 人民公社的废除与中国农村生育率的下降

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103375

This study investigates the impact of the abolition of People’s Communes in the early 1980s on rural fertility in China. Exploiting the staggered implementation of agricultural decollectivization, we show that decollectivization led to a significant decline in rural fertility, independent of the impact of family planning policies. Counties with higher levels of egalitarianism during the commune period experienced a sharper fertility decline following decollectivization, indicating that the elimination of egalitarian income distribution is the key mechanism behind this fertility decline. We find no evidence supporting the alternative hypothesis that the fertility decline was primarily due to increased opportunity costs of childbearing associated with higher agricultural productivity after decollectivization.

本研究探讨了 20 世纪 80 年代初取消人民公社对中国农村生育率的影响。利用农业非集体化的交错实施，我们发现非集体化导致农村生育率显著下降，与计划生育政策的影响无关。公社时期平均主义程度较高的县在非集体化之后经历了更大幅度的生育率下降，这表明消除平均主义收入分配是生育率下降背后的关键机制。我们没有发现证据支持另一种假设，即生育率下降主要是由于非集体化后农业生产率提高导致生育机会成本增加。

引用次数: 0

The transition to direct mayoral elections in clientelistic environments: Causal public spending and service delivery effects 在客户至上的环境中向市长直选过渡：公共开支和服务提供的因果效应

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103380

We examine the impact of the transition to direct mayoral elections on district spending and household public service access in Indonesia during a period of momentous national democratic reform. We leverage the arguably exogenous timing of direct local elections to specify a staggered difference-in-differences model, which we estimate using the latest methods to plausibly identify causal effects. We find that the transition to direct elections led to a consistent and large decline in capital spending in both pre- and post-election years. We also determine that the transition resulted in a moderate decrease in household service access in the post-election period. Pre-election capital spending impacts are a function of both general disruptions associated with the transition and emerging clientelism. Service access effects are completely explained by the relative extent of clientelism across districts. We conclude that the local democratic transition in Indonesia had a mostly negative impact on key spending and service outcomes, at least in the short-run and for those districts in which clientelistic practices were especially pronounced.

我们研究了印度尼西亚在国家民主改革的重要时期，过渡到市长直选对地区支出和家庭公共服务获取的影响。我们利用地方直选这一可以说是外生的时机，指定了一个交错差分模型，并使用最新方法对该模型进行了估计，以合理确定因果效应。我们发现，向直选过渡导致资本支出在选举前和选举后都持续大幅下降。我们还确定，过渡导致家庭服务在选举后阶段适度减少。选举前的资本支出影响是与过渡时期相关的总体干扰和新出现的 "客户主义 "共同作用的结果。服务获取的影响完全可以用各地区 "裙带关系 "的相对程度来解释。我们的结论是，印尼的地方民主转型对主要支出和服务结果大多产生了负面影响，至少在短期内是如此，而且对那些贿选行为特别明显的地区也是如此。

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引用次数: 0

Are students really biased against female professors? — Experimental evidence from India 学生真的对女教授有偏见吗？- 印度的实验证据

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103362

We investigate the presence of gender bias in student evaluations of teaching (SETs) in India using a natural field experiment. In the first two treatments, we randomly assigned 504 students to attend an identical audio–visual lecture, manipulating the perceived gender of the professor. In two subsequent treatments, we provide additional information about the professors’ credentials to signal their competence. When we vary the perceived gender, on average, we do not find any significant differences in SETs received by female and male professors. However, the perceived-female professor receives higher SETs on average in treatments with additional information. Further, we find that in-group bias can be a potential channel to explain our results. Our findings highlight the context-dependent nature of gender bias in SETs and provide evidence of the differential impact of information by gender.

我们通过自然现场实验调查了印度学生教学评价（SET）中是否存在性别偏见。在前两个实验中，我们随机分配了 504 名学生参加相同的视听讲座，并对教授的性别进行了操纵。在随后的两个处理中，我们提供了有关教授资历的额外信息，以表明他们的能力。当我们改变感知到的性别时，平均而言，我们没有发现女性教授和男性教授所接受的 SET 有任何显著差异。然而，在提供额外信息的处理中，被认为是女性的教授平均获得了更高的 SET。此外，我们还发现，群体内偏见可能是解释我们的结果的一个潜在渠道。我们的研究结果凸显了 SET 中性别偏见的情境依赖性，并提供了信息对不同性别产生不同影响的证据。

引用次数: 0

Riders on the storm: How do firms navigate production and market conditions amid El Niño? 风暴中的骑手：企业如何在厄尔尼诺现象中驾驭生产和市场环境？

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103374

This paper investigates how heavy rainfalls resulting from the 2002–03 El Niño climate pattern affect Ecuadorian firms' production and market conditions. We show that affected firms' revenue productivity (TFP-R) and markups decrease. This is due to production efficiency losses (TFP-Q) and higher marginal costs of initially less efficient firms. Decreased product output prices in response to lower product demand explain the impact on initially more efficient firms. However, the shock neither affects market shares nor survival rates of initially less efficient firms. Consequently, the productivity distribution of Ecuador's industry is not affected by the shock. We also show a swift recovery of production and market demand in the immediate aftermath of the shock. Impacts in 2002–03 are like those of the 1997–98 rainfall shock. Differentiating firms by their TFP-R rather than their production efficiency indicates firms with better (worse) market positions can mitigate the negative impacts of the shock more (less).

本文研究了 2002-03 年厄尔尼诺气候模式导致的暴雨如何影响厄瓜多尔企业的生产和市场状况。我们发现，受影响企业的收入生产率（TFP-R）和加价率都有所下降。这是由于生产效率损失（TFP-Q）和最初效率较低企业的边际成本上升。由于产品需求减少，产品产出价格下降，这解释了对最初效率较高企业的影响。然而，冲击既没有影响市场份额，也没有影响最初效率较低企业的存活率。因此，厄瓜多尔工业的生产力分布并未受到冲击的影响。我们还发现，冲击过后，生产和市场需求迅速恢复。2002-03 年的影响与 1997-98 年降雨冲击的影响类似。根据全要素生产率而不是生产效率对企业进行区分，可以看出市场地位较好（较差）的企业能够更多（更少）地减轻冲击的负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Growing apart: Declining within- and across-locality insurance in rural China 渐行渐远：中国农村地区的区内和跨区保险不断减少

IF 5.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103366

We consider risk sharing in rural China during its rapid economic transformation from the late 1980s through the late 2000s. We document an erosion of consumption insurance against both household-level idiosyncratic and village-level aggregate income shocks, and show that this decline is related to observable economic changes: the shift out of agriculture, the decline of publicly owned Township-and-Village Enterprises, and increased migrant work. Further evidence suggests that as these changes took place at the village level, higher levels of government failed to offset these effects through the tax-and-transfer system, leaving households more exposed to both idiosyncratic and village-aggregate risk.

我们研究了中国农村在 20 世纪 80 年代末到 2000 年代末经济快速转型期间的风险分担情况。我们记录了针对家庭层面的特异性冲击和村庄层面的总收入冲击的消费保险的减少，并表明这种减少与可观察到的经济变化有关：农业向外转移、公有制乡镇企业的衰落以及外出务工的增加。进一步的证据表明，由于这些变化发生在村一级，上级政府未能通过税收和转移支付制度来抵消这些影响，从而使家庭更容易受到特异性风险和村级总体风险的影响。

引用次数: 0

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