首页 > 最新文献

Journal of Development Economics最新文献

英文 中文
Vehicle exhaust standards and urban air quality in China 中国汽车尾气标准与城市空气质量
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103387
Li Shu , Chunhua Wang , Wei Wang
This study quantifies the effects of increasing the share of low-emission passenger vehicles on urban air quality in China. We estimate a two-stage least squares model, using the phased implementation of National Vehicle Emission Standards VI in 2019 as an instrumental variable for fleet composition. Our findings indicate that a 1% increase in the share of vehicles compliant with the stricter vehicle exhaust standards leads to a 0.083% reduction in the average pollutant concentration across three measures of air pollution. Furthermore, our calculation suggests that the monetized health benefits from reductions in particulate matter outweigh the costs of adhering to stricter exhaust standards by a factor of two.
本研究量化了提高低排放乘用车比例对中国城市空气质量的影响。我们采用两阶段最小二乘法模型进行估计,将 2019 年分阶段实施的国家汽车尾气排放标准 VI 作为车队组成的工具变量。我们的研究结果表明,符合更严格汽车尾气排放标准的车辆比例每增加 1%,三种空气污染指标的平均污染物浓度就会降低 0.083%。此外,我们的计算表明,减少颗粒物所带来的货币化健康收益要比遵守更严格的排气标准的成本高出 2 倍。
{"title":"Vehicle exhaust standards and urban air quality in China","authors":"Li Shu ,&nbsp;Chunhua Wang ,&nbsp;Wei Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103387","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103387","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study quantifies the effects of increasing the share of low-emission passenger vehicles on urban air quality in China. We estimate a two-stage least squares model, using the phased implementation of National Vehicle Emission Standards VI in 2019 as an instrumental variable for fleet composition. Our findings indicate that a 1% increase in the share of vehicles compliant with the stricter vehicle exhaust standards leads to a 0.083% reduction in the average pollutant concentration across three measures of air pollution. Furthermore, our calculation suggests that the monetized health benefits from reductions in particulate matter outweigh the costs of adhering to stricter exhaust standards by a factor of two.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103387"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
What you do (not) get when expanding the net - Evidence from forced taxpayer registrations in South Africa 扩大税网,你会得到什么(而不是什么)--南非强制纳税人登记的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103388
Collen Lediga , Nadine Riedel , Kristina Strohmaier
A significant share of firms in developing countries is not registered for income taxation. Expanding the tax net is a priority for many governments, but most formalization policies proved relatively ineffective in bringing firms into the tax net. Drawing on rich tax administrative data, we document that snapshot-synchronizations of the business tax and the commercial registry in South Africa led to a large-scale expansion of the South African business taxpayer net. While the targeted firms are a valuable segment within the non-formal sector, we show that their post-registration tax compliance is weak and few of them pay taxes. Owing to the large scope of the tax net expansion, the aggregate revenue gains are, nevertheless, non-negligible and the interventions are fiscally cost-effective. In additional analyses, we provide evidence for enforcement spillovers: In areas where many firms were drawn into the tax net, tax registration timing compliance significantly improved after the snapshot synchronizations. We find no indication of a drop in registration numbers at the commercial registry.
发展中国家有很大一部分企业没有进行所得税登记。扩大税网是许多国家政府的当务之急,但事实证明,大多数正规化政策在将企业纳入税网方面效果相对较差。利用丰富的税务管理数据,我们记录了南非营业税和商业登记的快照同步化导致了南非商业纳税人网络的大规模扩张。虽然目标企业是非正规部门中的重要组成部分,但我们发现它们在注册后的纳税遵从度很低,而且很少有人纳税。由于税网扩大的范围很大,总的税收收益是不可忽略的,而且干预措施具有财政成本效益。在其他分析中,我们提供了执法溢出效应的证据:在许多企业被纳入税网的地区,税务登记时间的合规性在快照同步后显著提高。我们没有发现商业登记处登记数量下降的迹象。
{"title":"What you do (not) get when expanding the net - Evidence from forced taxpayer registrations in South Africa","authors":"Collen Lediga ,&nbsp;Nadine Riedel ,&nbsp;Kristina Strohmaier","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103388","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103388","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A significant share of firms in developing countries is not registered for income taxation. Expanding the tax net is a priority for many governments, but most formalization policies proved relatively ineffective in bringing firms into the tax net. Drawing on rich tax administrative data, we document that snapshot-synchronizations of the business tax and the commercial registry in South Africa led to a large-scale expansion of the South African business taxpayer net. While the targeted firms are a valuable segment within the non-formal sector, we show that their post-registration tax compliance is weak and few of them pay taxes. Owing to the large scope of the tax net expansion, the aggregate revenue gains are, nevertheless, non-negligible and the interventions are fiscally cost-effective. In additional analyses, we provide evidence for enforcement spillovers: In areas where many firms were drawn into the tax net, tax registration timing compliance significantly improved after the snapshot synchronizations. We find no indication of a drop in registration numbers at the commercial registry.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103388"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Electricity and female employment: Evidence from Tajikistan’s winter energy crisis 电力与女性就业:塔吉克斯坦冬季能源危机的证据
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103383
Adrian Poignant
This paper studies the impact of electricity rationing on female employment during Tajikistan’s winter energy crisis, 2009–2015. Reduced access to electricity led to a decline in female employment as women left the workforce to become homemakers. The negative employment effect is specific to women and does not appear to be driven by changes in labor demand, involuntary unemployment, labor migration or fertility patterns. However, the decline in female employment is accompanied by a lower adoption of labor-saving electrical appliances. These findings suggest that electricity provision releases women from unpaid domestic work. Furthermore, they suggest that the quality of the electricity supply is vital for realizing the full benefits of electrification in developing countries.
本文研究了 2009-2015 年塔吉克斯坦冬季能源危机期间电力配给对女性就业的影响。电力供应的减少导致女性就业率下降,因为女性离开劳动力队伍成为家庭主妇。这种负面就业影响是妇女特有的,似乎不是由劳动力需求变化、非自愿失业、劳动力迁移或生育模式驱动的。然而,女性就业率下降的同时,省力电器的采用率也降低了。这些研究结果表明,电力供应将妇女从无偿家务劳动中解放出来。此外,这些研究还表明,电力供应的质量对于发展中国家实现电气化的全部益处至关重要。
{"title":"Electricity and female employment: Evidence from Tajikistan’s winter energy crisis","authors":"Adrian Poignant","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103383","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103383","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper studies the impact of electricity rationing on female employment during Tajikistan’s winter energy crisis, 2009–2015. Reduced access to electricity led to a decline in female employment as women left the workforce to become homemakers. The negative employment effect is specific to women and does not appear to be driven by changes in labor demand, involuntary unemployment, labor migration or fertility patterns. However, the decline in female employment is accompanied by a lower adoption of labor-saving electrical appliances. These findings suggest that electricity provision releases women from unpaid domestic work. Furthermore, they suggest that the quality of the electricity supply is vital for realizing the full benefits of electrification in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103383"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535237","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How to improve education outcomes most efficiently? A review of the evidence using a unified metric 如何最有效地提高教育成果?使用统一标准对证据进行审查
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103382
Noam Angrist , David K. Evans , Deon Filmer , Rachel Glennerster , Halsey Rogers , Shwetlena Sabarwal
Many low- and middle-income countries lag far behind high-income countries in educational access and student learning. Policymakers must make tough choices about which investments to make to improve education with limited resources. Although hundreds of education interventions have been rigorously evaluated, making comparisons between the results is challenging. This paper provides the most recent and comprehensive review of the literature on effective education programs, with a novel emphasis on cost-effectiveness. We analyze the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions from over 200 impact evaluations across 52 countries. We use a unified measure — learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) — that combines access and quality and compares gains to an absolute, cross-country standard. The results identify programs and policies that can be up to an order of magnitude more cost-effective than business-as-usual approaches. Examples of some of the most cost-effective approaches include targeting instruction to students’ learning level rather than grade as well as structured pedagogy approaches. These results can enable policymakers to improve education outcomes substantially more efficiently.
许多中低收入国家在教育机会和学生学习方面远远落后于高收入国家。政策制定者必须做出艰难的选择,以有限的资源进行哪些投资来改善教育。尽管已经对数百项教育干预措施进行了严格评估,但对评估结果进行比较仍具有挑战性。本文对有关有效教育计划的文献进行了最新、最全面的回顾,并以成本效益为新的重点。我们分析了 52 个国家 200 多项影响评估中干预措施的有效性和成本效益。我们采用统一的衡量标准--学习调整后的受教育年限(LAYS)--将受教育机会和教育质量结合起来,并将收益与绝对的跨国标准进行比较。结果表明,与一切照旧的方法相比,这些计划和政策的成本效益最多可提高一个数量级。一些最具成本效益的方法包括针对学生的学习水平而不是年级进行教学,以及结构化教学法。这些成果可以使决策者更有效地改善教育成果。
{"title":"How to improve education outcomes most efficiently? A review of the evidence using a unified metric","authors":"Noam Angrist ,&nbsp;David K. Evans ,&nbsp;Deon Filmer ,&nbsp;Rachel Glennerster ,&nbsp;Halsey Rogers ,&nbsp;Shwetlena Sabarwal","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103382","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103382","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many low- and middle-income countries lag far behind high-income countries in educational access and student learning. Policymakers must make tough choices about which investments to make to improve education with limited resources. Although hundreds of education interventions have been rigorously evaluated, making comparisons between the results is challenging. This paper provides the most recent and comprehensive review of the literature on effective education programs, with a novel emphasis on cost-effectiveness. We analyze the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions from over 200 impact evaluations across 52 countries. We use a unified measure — learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) — that combines access and quality and compares gains to an absolute, cross-country standard. The results identify programs and policies that can be up to an order of magnitude more cost-effective than business-as-usual approaches. Examples of some of the most cost-effective approaches include targeting instruction to students’ learning level rather than grade as well as structured pedagogy approaches. These results can enable policymakers to improve education outcomes substantially more efficiently.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103382"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Combining survey and census data for improved poverty prediction using semi-supervised deep learning 结合调查和普查数据,利用半监督深度学习改进贫困预测
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103385
Damien Echevin , Guy Fotso , Yacine Bouroubi , Harold Coulombe , Qing Li
This paper presents a methodology for predicting poverty using semi-supervised learning techniques, specifically pseudo-labeling, and deep learning algorithms. Standard poverty prediction models rely on limited household survey data, whereas our approach exploits large amounts of unlabeled census data to improve prediction accuracy. By applying pseudo-labeling, we improve key performance metrics across various African regions, where our models outperform conventional approaches to identifying poor individuals. Deep neural networks (DNNs) trained on pseudo-labeled data exhibited area under the curve (AUC) scores ranging from 0.8 to over 0.9, a notable improvement over previous machine learning survey-based methods. Furthermore, random undersampling was key to refining model performance, balancing higher coverage with some reduction in precision. These findings have significant implications for poverty targeting, enabling more accurate identification of poor individuals and supporting better resource allocation.
本文介绍了一种利用半监督学习技术(特别是伪标签技术)和深度学习算法预测贫困的方法。标准的贫困预测模型依赖于有限的家庭调查数据,而我们的方法则利用大量未标记的人口普查数据来提高预测的准确性。通过应用伪标签技术,我们改进了非洲各地区的关键性能指标,在这些地区,我们的模型在识别贫困人口方面优于传统方法。在伪标签数据上训练的深度神经网络(DNN)的曲线下面积(AUC)得分从 0.8 到 0.9 以上不等,与之前基于调查的机器学习方法相比有显著提高。此外,随机欠采样是改进模型性能的关键,在提高覆盖率的同时也降低了精度。这些发现对确定贫困目标具有重要意义,可以更准确地识别贫困人口,支持更好的资源分配。
{"title":"Combining survey and census data for improved poverty prediction using semi-supervised deep learning","authors":"Damien Echevin ,&nbsp;Guy Fotso ,&nbsp;Yacine Bouroubi ,&nbsp;Harold Coulombe ,&nbsp;Qing Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103385","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103385","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a methodology for predicting poverty using semi-supervised learning techniques, specifically pseudo-labeling, and deep learning algorithms. Standard poverty prediction models rely on limited household survey data, whereas our approach exploits large amounts of unlabeled census data to improve prediction accuracy. By applying pseudo-labeling, we improve key performance metrics across various African regions, where our models outperform conventional approaches to identifying poor individuals. Deep neural networks (DNNs) trained on pseudo-labeled data exhibited area under the curve (AUC) scores ranging from 0.8 to over 0.9, a notable improvement over previous machine learning survey-based methods. Furthermore, random undersampling was key to refining model performance, balancing higher coverage with some reduction in precision. These findings have significant implications for poverty targeting, enabling more accurate identification of poor individuals and supporting better resource allocation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103385"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142440901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does social capital positively influence loan performance even during a crisis? 即使在危机期间,社会资本是否也会对贷款绩效产生积极影响?
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103384
Sumit Agarwal , Prasanna Tantri , Nitin Vishen
Theoretically, it is unclear whether group loans outperform individual loans in terms of delinquency, especially during a crisis. It is difficult to test the hypothesis due to differences in the types of borrowers of the group and individual loans and likely differences in their behavior between crises and normal times. We overcome the challenge by comparing simultaneous group and individual loans of the same individual before and during the Covid-19 crisis in India. We find that the delinquency rate of group loans is significantly lower. Further tests suggestively indicate that the outperformance is due to the “peer pressure” channel.
从理论上讲,目前还不清楚集体贷款在拖欠率方面是否优于个人贷款,特别是在危机期间。由于集体贷款和个人贷款的借款人类型不同,他们在危机和正常时期的行为也可能不同,因此很难检验这一假设。我们通过比较同一人在印度 Covid-19 危机前和危机期间同时获得的团体贷款和个人贷款,克服了这一难题。我们发现,团体贷款的拖欠率明显较低。进一步的测试表明,表现优异的原因是 "同伴压力 "渠道。
{"title":"Does social capital positively influence loan performance even during a crisis?","authors":"Sumit Agarwal ,&nbsp;Prasanna Tantri ,&nbsp;Nitin Vishen","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103384","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103384","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Theoretically, it is unclear whether group loans outperform individual loans in terms of delinquency, especially during a crisis. It is difficult to test the hypothesis due to differences in the types of borrowers of the group and individual loans and likely differences in their behavior between crises and normal times. We overcome the challenge by comparing simultaneous group and individual loans of the same individual before and during the Covid-19 crisis in India. We find that the delinquency rate of group loans is significantly lower. Further tests suggestively indicate that the outperformance is due to the “peer pressure” channel.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103384"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Young women in cities: Urbanization and gender-biased migration 城市中的年轻女性:城市化和有性别偏见的移民
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103378
Yumi Koh , Jing Li , Yifan Wu , Junjian Yi , Hanzhe Zhang
Young women outnumber young men in cities in many countries during periods of economic growth and urbanization. This gender imbalance among young urbanites is more pronounced in larger cities. We use the gradual rollout of Special Economic Zones across China as a quasi-experiment to establish the causal impact of urbanization on gender-differentiated incentives to migrate. We highlight the role of the marriage market in increasing rural women’s chance of marrying and marrying up in urban areas during rapid urbanization.
在经济增长和城市化时期,许多国家城市中的年轻女性人数超过了年轻男性。城市青年中的这种性别失衡现象在大城市中更为明显。我们将经济特区在中国的逐步推广作为一个准实验,以确定城市化对不同性别移民动机的因果影响。我们强调了在快速城市化过程中,婚姻市场在增加农村妇女嫁入和嫁到城市的机会方面所起的作用。
{"title":"Young women in cities: Urbanization and gender-biased migration","authors":"Yumi Koh ,&nbsp;Jing Li ,&nbsp;Yifan Wu ,&nbsp;Junjian Yi ,&nbsp;Hanzhe Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103378","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103378","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Young women outnumber young men in cities in many countries during periods of economic growth and urbanization. This gender imbalance among young urbanites is more pronounced in larger cities. We use the gradual rollout of Special Economic Zones across China as a quasi-experiment to establish the causal impact of urbanization on gender-differentiated incentives to migrate. We highlight the role of the marriage market in increasing rural women’s chance of marrying and marrying up in urban areas during rapid urbanization.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103378"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328091","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict 国内冲突造成的贸易迁移现象持续存在
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103376
Tobias Korn , Henry Stemmler
This paper examines the lasting impact of civil conflicts on bilateral trade flows and the subsequent implications for economic recovery. Utilizing a novel estimation approach based on the structural gravity model of international trade, we demonstrate that importers shift their trade preferences away from exporters involved in civil conflicts. This effect persists even after the conflict has been resolved, as countries solidify their relocation decisions by reducing bilateral trade costs with alternative trading partners through Preferential Trade Agreements. Notably, the persistent trade relocation is more pronounced in the manufacturing sector, while it does not occur in the fuels sector. Our findings underscore the significance of supportive trade policies as effective tools for assisting nations in recovering from episodes of political violence. Furthermore, our estimation approach can be adapted to investigate the impacts of other unilateral shocks, such as natural disasters, or to analyze various bilateral dependent variables, including migration.
本文探讨了国内冲突对双边贸易流动的持久影响以及随后对经济复苏的影响。利用基于国际贸易结构重力模型的新颖估算方法,我们证明了进口商会转移其贸易偏好,远离卷入国内冲突的出口商。这种效应甚至在冲突解决后依然存在,因为各国通过优惠贸易协定降低了与替代贸易伙伴的双边贸易成本,从而巩固了它们的迁移决策。值得注意的是,持续的贸易转移在制造业部门更为明显,而在燃料部门则没有发生。我们的研究结果表明,支持性贸易政策是帮助国家从政治暴力事件中恢复的有效工具。此外,我们的估算方法还可用于研究自然灾害等其他单边冲击的影响,或分析包括移民在内的各种双边因变量。
{"title":"The persistence of trade relocation from civil conflict","authors":"Tobias Korn ,&nbsp;Henry Stemmler","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103376","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103376","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the lasting impact of civil conflicts on bilateral trade flows and the subsequent implications for economic recovery. Utilizing a novel estimation approach based on the structural gravity model of international trade, we demonstrate that importers shift their trade preferences away from exporters involved in civil conflicts. This effect persists even after the conflict has been resolved, as countries solidify their relocation decisions by reducing bilateral trade costs with alternative trading partners through Preferential Trade Agreements. Notably, the persistent trade relocation is more pronounced in the manufacturing sector, while it does not occur in the fuels sector. Our findings underscore the significance of supportive trade policies as effective tools for assisting nations in recovering from episodes of political violence. Furthermore, our estimation approach can be adapted to investigate the impacts of other unilateral shocks, such as natural disasters, or to analyze various bilateral dependent variables, including migration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103376"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142535236","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Robots as guardians: Industrial automation and workplace safety in China 机器人是守护者:中国的工业自动化与工作场所安全
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103381
Wei Luo , Lixin Tang , Yaxin Yang , Xianqiang Zou
Industrial robots can improve workplace safety by performing hazardous tasks on behalf of workers. This paper examines the impact of industrial robots on workplace safety in China. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in robot exposure reduces annual workplace accidents and fatalities by 0.100 and 0.0133 cases per thousand population, compared to sample averages of 0.122 accidents and 0.0351 fatalities. These findings are robust to an instrumental variable strategy and various robustness checks. Our analysis of injuries in household surveys and Baidu search activities reinforces these results. Using an accounting framework, we show that the safety improvement is not driven by the mechanical effects of robot-induced employment reduction. Instead, within-occupation improvement in workplace safety plays a more crucial role.
工业机器人可以代替工人执行危险任务,从而改善工作场所的安全状况。本文研究了工业机器人对中国工作场所安全的影响。我们发现,与样本平均值 0.122 起事故和 0.0351 起死亡事故相比,每千人口中机器人接触率每增加一个标准差,每年的工伤事故和死亡事故就会分别减少 0.100 起和 0.0133 起。这些发现对工具变量策略和各种稳健性检验都是稳健的。我们对住户调查和百度搜索活动中的伤害事故进行的分析进一步证实了这些结果。利用核算框架,我们发现安全状况的改善并不是由机器人导致的就业减少的机械效应驱动的。相反,职业内部的工作场所安全改善起到了更关键的作用。
{"title":"Robots as guardians: Industrial automation and workplace safety in China","authors":"Wei Luo ,&nbsp;Lixin Tang ,&nbsp;Yaxin Yang ,&nbsp;Xianqiang Zou","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Industrial robots can improve workplace safety by performing hazardous tasks on behalf of workers. This paper examines the impact of industrial robots on workplace safety in China. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in robot exposure reduces annual workplace accidents and fatalities by 0.100 and 0.0133 cases per thousand population, compared to sample averages of 0.122 accidents and 0.0351 fatalities. These findings are robust to an instrumental variable strategy and various robustness checks. Our analysis of injuries in household surveys and Baidu search activities reinforces these results. Using an accounting framework, we show that the safety improvement is not driven by the mechanical effects of robot-induced employment reduction. Instead, within-occupation improvement in workplace safety plays a more crucial role.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103381"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142328300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Poverty mapping in the age of machine learning 机器学习时代的贫困分布图
IF 5.1 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103377
Paul Corral , Heath Henderson , Sandra Segovia
Recent years have witnessed considerable methodological advances in poverty mapping, much of which has focused on the application of modern machine-learning approaches to remotely-sensed data. Poverty maps produced with these methods generally share a common validation procedure, which assesses model performance by comparing sub-national poverty estimates with survey-based, direct estimates. While unbiased, direct estimates can be imprecise measures of true poverty rates, meaning that it is unclear whether these validation procedures are informative of actual model performance. In this paper, we use a rich dataset from Mexico to provide a more rigorous assessment of the modern approach to poverty mapping by evaluating its performance against a credible ground truth. We find that the modern method under-performs relative to benchmark traditional methods, largely because of the limited predictive capacity of remotely-sensed covariates. For a given covariate set, we also find that machine learning produces more biased poverty estimates than the traditional procedures, particularly for the poorest geographic areas.
近年来,绘制贫困地图的方法有了长足的进步,其中大部分侧重于将现代机器学习方法应用于遥感数据。使用这些方法绘制的贫困地图一般都有一个共同的验证程序,即通过比较国家以下各级的贫困估计值和基于调查的直接估计值来评估模型的性能。直接估计值虽然没有偏差,但对真实贫困率的衡量可能并不精确,这意味着这些验证程序是否能说明模型的实际性能尚不清楚。在本文中,我们利用墨西哥丰富的数据集,通过对照可信的基本事实来评估现代贫困测绘方法的性能,从而对其进行更严格的评估。我们发现,相对于基准传统方法,现代方法表现不佳,这主要是因为遥感协变量的预测能力有限。对于给定的协变量集,我们还发现,与传统方法相比,机器学习方法产生的贫困估计值更有偏差,尤其是在最贫困的地理区域。
{"title":"Poverty mapping in the age of machine learning","authors":"Paul Corral ,&nbsp;Heath Henderson ,&nbsp;Sandra Segovia","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103377","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103377","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent years have witnessed considerable methodological advances in poverty mapping, much of which has focused on the application of modern machine-learning approaches to remotely-sensed data. Poverty maps produced with these methods generally share a common validation procedure, which assesses model performance by comparing sub-national poverty estimates with survey-based, direct estimates. While unbiased, direct estimates can be imprecise measures of true poverty rates, meaning that it is unclear whether these validation procedures are informative of actual model performance. In this paper, we use a rich dataset from Mexico to provide a more rigorous assessment of the modern approach to poverty mapping by evaluating its performance against a credible ground truth. We find that the modern method under-performs relative to benchmark traditional methods, largely because of the limited predictive capacity of remotely-sensed covariates. For a given covariate set, we also find that machine learning produces more biased poverty estimates than the traditional procedures, particularly for the poorest geographic areas.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103377"},"PeriodicalIF":5.1,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142322089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Development Economics
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1