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Aging in Haze 雾霾中的老化
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103717
Runhao Zhao , Ye Yuan , Chong Liu , Junjian Yi
We study how the environment shapes aging. Leveraging a natural experiment in China where coal-powered winter heating caused persistently higher levels of particulate matters (PMs) north of a policy boundary for over three decades, we find that prolonged PM exposure accelerates aging beyond the biological age, leading to higher rates of multiple chronic conditions, functional disabilities, and cognitive decline in the working-age population. These effects were dormant in the early adulthood, emerged and developed rapidly in age 40s to 50s, and persisted long after exposure ends. Older cohorts experience faster and more enduring aging effects than younger ones under the same exposure, indicating greater life-cycle vulnerability to pollution-induced aging. We highlight that sustained PM exposure accelerates aging and exacerbates physical and cognitive decline in the working-age population.
我们研究环境如何影响衰老。利用在中国进行的一项自然实验,在中国,燃煤冬季供暖导致政策边界以北的颗粒物(PM)水平持续升高超过30年,我们发现,长时间暴露于PM会加速超出生物年龄的衰老,导致工作年龄人口中多种慢性病、功能残疾和认知能力下降的比例更高。这些影响在成年早期处于休眠状态,在40岁至50岁时迅速出现并发展,并在接触结束后持续很长时间。在同样的暴露条件下,老年人比年轻人经历的衰老效应更快、更持久,这表明在生命周期中更容易受到污染引起的衰老的影响。我们强调,持续暴露于PM会加速衰老,加剧劳动年龄人口的身体和认知能力下降。
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引用次数: 0
Do resource rents drive urbanization and structural transformation? A global analysis 资源租金驱动城市化和结构转型吗?全球分析
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103709
Qing Huang , Victoria Wenxin Xie , Wei You
This paper provides the first causal estimate of the impact of mineral price changes on the local population and sectoral employment shares in a global sample of cities. We find that increases in the prices of minerals extracted from nearby mines lead to local employment reallocation away from agriculture and primarily toward low-skilled services, without crowding out manufacturing activities. While the city population grows, there is limited evidence for mining booms driving large-scale urbanization. Cities in Sub-Saharan Africa exhibit exceptionally strong responses to mining booms. These results suggest that resource-led structural transformation could present a new development path for resource-rich developing countries.
本文首次对矿产价格变化对全球城市样本中当地人口和部门就业份额的影响进行了因果估计。我们发现,从附近矿山开采的矿物价格上涨导致当地就业重新分配,从农业转向低技能服务业,而没有挤出制造业活动。虽然城市人口在增长,但很少有证据表明矿业繁荣推动了大规模城市化。撒哈拉以南非洲的城市对矿业繁荣表现出异常强烈的反应。这些结果表明,资源主导型结构转型可能为资源丰富的发展中国家提供一条新的发展道路。
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引用次数: 0
Informal fiscal systems in developing countries 发展中国家的非正式财政制度
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103712
Shan Aman-Rana , Clement Minaudier , Sandip Sukhtankar
Governments in developing countries have low fiscal capacity yet face pressures to provide public goods and services, leading them to rely on various unusual fiscal arrangements. We uncover one such arrangement – informal fiscal systems that rely on local bureaucrats to fund the delivery of public goods and services – cataloging its existence in at least 20 countries. Using survey data and government accounts from Pakistan, we show that public officials are expected to cover funding gaps in public services and they do so, at least partially, through extracted bribes. We develop a model of bureaucratic agency to explore when governments benefit from sustaining such systems and investigate their implications for welfare and bureaucrat selection. Informal fiscal systems are more likely to arise when corruption is widespread but public service delivery is relatively easy to monitor. While they provide an effective second-best solution in the presence of moral hazard and adverse selection, they can distort the effective incidence of the tax burden, reduce the incentives of governments to fight corruption, and legitimize bribe-taking. This makes corruption more widespread and thus makes informal systems self-reinforcing.
发展中国家的政府财政能力较低,但面临提供公共产品和服务的压力,导致它们依赖各种不同寻常的财政安排。我们发现了一种这样的安排——依靠地方官僚为公共产品和服务的提供提供资金的非正式财政体系——并对至少20个国家存在的这种安排进行了分类。我们利用巴基斯坦的调查数据和政府账户表明,政府官员有望填补公共服务的资金缺口,而他们至少在一定程度上是通过索取贿赂来做到这一点的。我们开发了一个官僚机构模型,以探索政府何时从维持这种系统中受益,并调查其对福利和官僚选择的影响。当腐败普遍存在但公共服务提供相对容易监督时,非正式财政制度更有可能出现。虽然它们在存在道德风险和逆向选择的情况下提供了一种有效的次优解决方案,但它们可能扭曲税收负担的有效发生率,降低政府打击腐败的动机,并使贿赂合法化。这使得腐败更加普遍,从而使非正式制度自我强化。
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引用次数: 0
Resisting social conformity pressure: Impact of a gender norms intervention for adolescents in Somalia 抵制社会从众压力:性别规范干预对索马里青少年的影响
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103713
Rajdev Brar , Niklas Buehren , Sreelakshmi Papineni , Munshi Sulaiman
Using a randomized controlled trial, this paper evaluates the impact of a gender norms intervention for young adolescents in Somalia. The program leads to greater support for gender equality in the privately reported attitudes of girls and boys; with further positive effects on mental health, aspirations, and boys’ engagement in housework. A novel lab-in-the-field experiment is used to observe social group dynamics among adolescent peers to examine the program’s impact on receptivity to social conformity. We adopt Asch-inspired conformity measures to demonstrate a treatment effect on conformity in gender beliefs (when stated publicly) versus conformity in a more general class of publicly stated beliefs as a placebo test. We find that private changes in gender beliefs lead to differences in an adolescent’s willingness to conform to group beliefs. Treated adolescents are less likely to succumb to peer pressure to conform when stating their gender attitudes in public, leading to greater public expression of egalitarian ideals. The effects on conformity are observed only for the gender norms domain. Our findings suggest that social norms interventions can be effective in positively shaping gender attitudes, helping to empower adolescents to withstand normative pressures.
本文采用随机对照试验,评估性别规范干预对索马里青少年的影响。该项目在私下报告的女孩和男孩的态度方面为性别平等提供了更大的支持;对心理健康、志向和男孩参与家务有进一步的积极影响。本研究采用一种新颖的实地实验室实验,观察青少年同伴的社会群体动态,以检验该计划对社会从众接受性的影响。我们采用asch启发的从众措施来证明对性别信仰的从众(当公开陈述时)的治疗效果,而对更一般的公开陈述信仰的从众作为安慰剂测试。我们发现,个人性别信仰的改变会导致青少年遵从群体信仰意愿的差异。接受治疗的青少年在公开表达自己的性别态度时,不太可能屈从于同伴的压力,从而更大程度地公开表达平等主义的理想。对从众的影响只在性别规范领域被观察到。我们的研究结果表明,社会规范干预可以有效地积极塑造性别态度,帮助青少年承受规范压力。
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引用次数: 0
The global software production network 全球软件生产网络
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103708
Carlo Birkholz , David Gomtsyan
Can developing countries benefit from exporting opportunities in the growing sector of tradable services, given the near free information flow via the internet and wage differentials relative to developed countries? Focusing on the software development industry, we analyze data from 2.68 million software projects across 5200 locations, and estimate an economic geography model in which locations trade tasks. The results reveal three factors limiting exports: (i) significant productivity differences within and between countries; (ii) a notable decline in trade volumes with distance; (iii) sorting patterns among software developers that are suggestive of brain drain.
考虑到通过互联网几乎自由的信息流动和相对于发达国家的工资差异,发展中国家能否从不断增长的可贸易服务部门的出口机会中受益?专注于软件开发行业,我们分析了来自5200个地点的268万个软件项目的数据,并估计了一个地点交易任务的经济地理模型。结果揭示了限制出口的三个因素:(1)国家内部和国家之间显著的生产率差异;(ii)贸易量随距离显著下降;(iii)软件开发人员之间的分类模式暗示着人才流失。
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引用次数: 0
Frosty climate, icy relationships: Cold and intimate partner violence in Peru 寒冷的气候,冰冷的关系:秘鲁的寒冷和亲密伴侣暴力
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103710
Katie Bollman , Judhajit Chakraborty , Leah K. Lakdawala , Eduardo Nakasone
Violence against women – in particular, Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) – is a health concern for women across the world. We study the effect of cold exposure on IPV among Peruvian women. Using a dataset that matches women to weather exposure, we find that cold shocks increase IPV: 10 degree hours below -9 °C increases the probability of experiencing domestic violence by 0.5 percentage points. These effects are larger for more extreme temperature thresholds. We provide evidence that cold influences IPV through two main channels. First, extreme cold reduces income. Second, extreme cold limits time spent outside of the household, potentially increasing exposure of women to violent partners. To our knowledge, we are the first to measure relative significance of these two channels by using variation in cold timing to distinguish shocks that affect IPV through changes in income from those that act through time spent indoors. We find that the effect of cold on IPV is mostly driven by low temperatures that occur during the agricultural growing season, when income is most affected; 10 degree hours below -9 °C during the growing season increases the probability of experiencing IPV by 1.6 percentage points. In contrast, we find that cold exposure outside of the growing season has no statistically significant effect on IPV.
对妇女的暴力行为,特别是亲密伴侣暴力,是全世界妇女关注的一个健康问题。我们研究了寒冷暴露对秘鲁妇女IPV的影响。使用将女性与天气暴露相匹配的数据集,我们发现冷冲击会增加IPV:低于-9°C的10度小时会使遭受家庭暴力的可能性增加0.5个百分点。对于更极端的温度阈值,这些影响更大。我们提供的证据表明,寒冷影响IPV通过两个主要渠道。首先,极端寒冷会减少收入。其次,极端寒冷限制了她们走出家庭的时间,这可能会增加女性面对暴力伴侣的风险。据我们所知,我们是第一个测量这两个渠道的相对重要性,通过使用冷时间的变化来区分通过收入变化影响IPV的冲击和通过在室内度过的时间影响IPV的冲击。研究发现,寒冷对IPV的影响主要是由农业生长季节的低温驱动的,此时对收入的影响最大;在生长季节,低于-9°C的10度小时会使经历IPV的可能性增加1.6个百分点。相比之下,我们发现生长季节以外的寒冷暴露对IPV没有统计学上显著的影响。
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引用次数: 0
CO2 emission regulation and generation allocation with heterogeneous coal-fired generators 非均质燃煤发电机组CO2排放调控与发电配置
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103711
Zhiyuan Chen , Rong Luo , Li Su
Using a generator-level framework, we analyze the impacts of different regulation levels of CO2 emissions on total emissions and generation costs in the China Southern Power Grid Corporation. We employ a structural approach to estimating the generator-level production functions that incorporate heterogeneous returns to scale and unobserved productivity, using a novel generator-level dataset. We find substantial heterogeneity in generation efficiency across generators, and large generators are the most efficient. Counterfactual analyses show that regulating emissions and allocating generation at a more aggregate level (province or region) can reduce total emissions and generation costs by shifting generation toward more efficient generators and plants. The generator-level framework allows for more efficient allocation than the plant-level framework.
本文采用发电机级框架,分析了不同CO2排放监管水平对南方电网公司总排放和发电成本的影响。我们采用一种结构方法来估计发电机级生产函数,该函数结合了规模和未观察到的生产率的异质性回报,使用了一个新的发电机级数据集。我们发现发电机的发电效率存在很大的异质性,大型发电机的效率最高。反事实分析表明,在更集中的水平(省或地区)调节排放和分配发电可以通过将发电转向更高效的发电机和发电厂来减少总排放和发电成本。生成器级框架允许比工厂级框架更有效的分配。
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引用次数: 0
Expressways, market access, and industrial development in China: Using walled-city panel instrumental variables of minimum spanning tree 高速公路、市场准入与中国产业发展:基于最小生成树的城墙城市面板工具变量
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103707
Kecen Jing , Wen-Chi Liao
Emerging countries like China have heavily invested in motorways to improve market access. Such transport network expansion can affect regional industrial development, but causal inference is challenging. Existing studies typically focus on longer-term effects or exclude economically important locations, lacking an identification strategy that can address rapid transport development and cover the country's entire economic geography. To fill this gap, we introduce quasi-random Walled-City MST Panel IVs to instrument market access and examine how China's rapidly expanding expressway network affects manufacturing development. The IVs are generated by simulating dynamic expansion paths of hypothetical networks that ultimately connect all target locations predicted by 1820 city-wall characteristics. Research verifies IV orthogonality and inclusion and exclusion restrictions in both static and dynamic aspects. It conducts horse races between cross-sectional and panel IVs, and between IVs with or without historical city-wall data. The panel IV strategy is useful when both transportation development and economic growth are rapid. Excluding locations is unnecessary. County-level analysis shows that during 2000–2009, when market access improved by 1 %, manufacturing GDP and firm count increased by 0.28 % and 0.07 %. Manufacturers' average output, capital, and labor increased by 0.08 %, 0.06 %, and 0.03 %. There were impacts on regional decentralization, industrial upgrade, and geographic concentration of manufacturers. Trade elasticity is estimated. A model of market access derives estimable equations and rationalizes the economics, with the assumptions of inelastic residential and industrial land supply and mobile capital and labor.
中国等新兴国家大力投资高速公路,以改善市场准入。这种交通网络扩张会影响区域产业发展,但因果推理具有挑战性。现有的研究通常侧重于长期影响或排除经济上重要的地点,缺乏能够解决快速交通发展和覆盖国家整个经济地理的确定战略。为了填补这一空白,我们引入了准随机的城墙城市MST面板iv来测量市场准入,并研究了中国快速扩张的高速公路网络如何影响制造业发展。IVs是通过模拟假想网络的动态扩展路径生成的,该网络最终连接由1820城墙特征预测的所有目标位置。研究从静态和动态两个方面验证了IV的正交性以及包含和排除限制。它在横断面和面板IVs之间,以及在有或没有历史城墙数据的IVs之间进行赛马。当交通发展和经济增长都很迅速时,第四组战略是有用的。排除位置是不必要的。县级分析表明,2000-2009年,市场准入每提高1%,制造业生产总值和企业数量分别增长0.28%和0.07%。制造商的平均产出、资本和劳动力分别增长了0.08%、0.06%和0.03%。对区域分散化、产业升级和制造业地理集聚产生影响。贸易弹性是估计的。市场准入模型在假定住宅和工业用地供应无弹性以及资本和劳动力流动的情况下,推导出可估计的方程,并使经济学合理化。
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引用次数: 0
Bring a friend: Leveraging financial and peer support to improve women’s reproductive agency in India 带上朋友:利用经济和同伴支持来改善印度妇女的生殖机构
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103706
S. Anukriti , Catalina Herrera-Almanza , Mahesh Karra
Women’s agency in the domain of family planning and reproductive health is a fundamental determinant of their well-being. We experimentally evaluate two approaches aimed at improving women’s reproductive agency in India. We offered treated women subsidized family planning services at a local clinic. Additionally, we enabled a subset of treated women to invite and incentivize others to visit the clinic with them. Although the subsidy encouraged women to seek company to the clinic and increased clinic visits, combining the subsidy with the ability to leverage peer support increased women’s contraceptive use, decreased their likelihood of pregnancy, and was more effective in strengthening reproductive agency and peer engagement. Women facing greater intrahousehold opposition to contraception appeared to benefit more from peer support.
妇女在计划生育和生殖健康领域的作用是决定她们福祉的根本因素。我们通过实验评估了两种旨在改善印度妇女生殖机构的方法。我们在当地一家诊所为接受治疗的妇女提供补贴的计划生育服务。此外,我们还允许一部分接受治疗的妇女邀请并激励其他人与她们一起去诊所。虽然补贴鼓励妇女结伴到诊所就诊,增加了就诊次数,但将补贴与利用同伴支持的能力结合起来,增加了妇女避孕药具的使用,降低了她们怀孕的可能性,并更有效地加强了生殖机构和同伴参与。面对更多家庭内部反对避孕的妇女似乎从同伴的支持中获益更多。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “The impact of female political leadership on gender attitudes: Evidence from Taiwan's local councils” [J. Dev. Econ. Volume 174, May 2025, 103451] “女性政治领导对性别态度的影响:来自台湾地方议会的证据”[J]。Dev,经济学。第174卷,2025年5月,103451]
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103696
Yen-Chien Chen , Elliott Fan , Yu-Hsin Ho , Matthew Yi-Hsiu Lee , Jin-Tan Liu
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Development Economics
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