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CO2 emission regulation and generation allocation with heterogeneous coal-fired generators 非均质燃煤发电机组CO2排放调控与发电配置
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103711
Zhiyuan Chen , Rong Luo , Li Su
Using a generator-level framework, we analyze the impacts of different regulation levels of CO2 emissions on total emissions and generation costs in the China Southern Power Grid Corporation. We employ a structural approach to estimating the generator-level production functions that incorporate heterogeneous returns to scale and unobserved productivity, using a novel generator-level dataset. We find substantial heterogeneity in generation efficiency across generators, and large generators are the most efficient. Counterfactual analyses show that regulating emissions and allocating generation at a more aggregate level (province or region) can reduce total emissions and generation costs by shifting generation toward more efficient generators and plants. The generator-level framework allows for more efficient allocation than the plant-level framework.
本文采用发电机级框架,分析了不同CO2排放监管水平对南方电网公司总排放和发电成本的影响。我们采用一种结构方法来估计发电机级生产函数,该函数结合了规模和未观察到的生产率的异质性回报,使用了一个新的发电机级数据集。我们发现发电机的发电效率存在很大的异质性,大型发电机的效率最高。反事实分析表明,在更集中的水平(省或地区)调节排放和分配发电可以通过将发电转向更高效的发电机和发电厂来减少总排放和发电成本。生成器级框架允许比工厂级框架更有效的分配。
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引用次数: 0
Expressways, market access, and industrial development in China: Using walled-city panel instrumental variables of minimum spanning tree 高速公路、市场准入与中国产业发展:基于最小生成树的城墙城市面板工具变量
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103707
Kecen Jing , Wen-Chi Liao
Emerging countries like China have heavily invested in motorways to improve market access. Such transport network expansion can affect regional industrial development, but causal inference is challenging. Existing studies typically focus on longer-term effects or exclude economically important locations, lacking an identification strategy that can address rapid transport development and cover the country's entire economic geography. To fill this gap, we introduce quasi-random Walled-City MST Panel IVs to instrument market access and examine how China's rapidly expanding expressway network affects manufacturing development. The IVs are generated by simulating dynamic expansion paths of hypothetical networks that ultimately connect all target locations predicted by 1820 city-wall characteristics. Research verifies IV orthogonality and inclusion and exclusion restrictions in both static and dynamic aspects. It conducts horse races between cross-sectional and panel IVs, and between IVs with or without historical city-wall data. The panel IV strategy is useful when both transportation development and economic growth are rapid. Excluding locations is unnecessary. County-level analysis shows that during 2000–2009, when market access improved by 1 %, manufacturing GDP and firm count increased by 0.28 % and 0.07 %. Manufacturers' average output, capital, and labor increased by 0.08 %, 0.06 %, and 0.03 %. There were impacts on regional decentralization, industrial upgrade, and geographic concentration of manufacturers. Trade elasticity is estimated. A model of market access derives estimable equations and rationalizes the economics, with the assumptions of inelastic residential and industrial land supply and mobile capital and labor.
中国等新兴国家大力投资高速公路,以改善市场准入。这种交通网络扩张会影响区域产业发展,但因果推理具有挑战性。现有的研究通常侧重于长期影响或排除经济上重要的地点,缺乏能够解决快速交通发展和覆盖国家整个经济地理的确定战略。为了填补这一空白,我们引入了准随机的城墙城市MST面板iv来测量市场准入,并研究了中国快速扩张的高速公路网络如何影响制造业发展。IVs是通过模拟假想网络的动态扩展路径生成的,该网络最终连接由1820城墙特征预测的所有目标位置。研究从静态和动态两个方面验证了IV的正交性以及包含和排除限制。它在横断面和面板IVs之间,以及在有或没有历史城墙数据的IVs之间进行赛马。当交通发展和经济增长都很迅速时,第四组战略是有用的。排除位置是不必要的。县级分析表明,2000-2009年,市场准入每提高1%,制造业生产总值和企业数量分别增长0.28%和0.07%。制造商的平均产出、资本和劳动力分别增长了0.08%、0.06%和0.03%。对区域分散化、产业升级和制造业地理集聚产生影响。贸易弹性是估计的。市场准入模型在假定住宅和工业用地供应无弹性以及资本和劳动力流动的情况下,推导出可估计的方程,并使经济学合理化。
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引用次数: 0
Bring a friend: Leveraging financial and peer support to improve women’s reproductive agency in India 带上朋友:利用经济和同伴支持来改善印度妇女的生殖机构
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103706
S. Anukriti , Catalina Herrera-Almanza , Mahesh Karra
Women’s agency in the domain of family planning and reproductive health is a fundamental determinant of their well-being. We experimentally evaluate two approaches aimed at improving women’s reproductive agency in India. We offered treated women subsidized family planning services at a local clinic. Additionally, we enabled a subset of treated women to invite and incentivize others to visit the clinic with them. Although the subsidy encouraged women to seek company to the clinic and increased clinic visits, combining the subsidy with the ability to leverage peer support increased women’s contraceptive use, decreased their likelihood of pregnancy, and was more effective in strengthening reproductive agency and peer engagement. Women facing greater intrahousehold opposition to contraception appeared to benefit more from peer support.
妇女在计划生育和生殖健康领域的作用是决定她们福祉的根本因素。我们通过实验评估了两种旨在改善印度妇女生殖机构的方法。我们在当地一家诊所为接受治疗的妇女提供补贴的计划生育服务。此外,我们还允许一部分接受治疗的妇女邀请并激励其他人与她们一起去诊所。虽然补贴鼓励妇女结伴到诊所就诊,增加了就诊次数,但将补贴与利用同伴支持的能力结合起来,增加了妇女避孕药具的使用,降低了她们怀孕的可能性,并更有效地加强了生殖机构和同伴参与。面对更多家庭内部反对避孕的妇女似乎从同伴的支持中获益更多。
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引用次数: 0
Connected national capital: Corporations in colonial and independent Egypt 连通的国家资本:殖民地和独立的埃及的公司
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103697
Cihan Artunç , Mohamed Saleh
We use a newly assembled dataset covering all Egyptian corporations, their founders, and political officeholders, to demonstrate the differential impact of political connections on firm performance across two distinctive political and economic contexts. Before Egypt’s independence in 1922, political connections reduced firm profitability, as connected firms were perceived to be aligned with the anti-colonial, nationalist movement, unsettling investors. After independence, connections improved firm outcomes by granting preferential access to incorporation and shielding connected companies from competition. These dynamics reflect the shift from a laissez-faire colonial regime to a nationalist industrial policy that selectively favored politically connected firms.
我们使用了一个新组装的数据集,涵盖了所有埃及公司、其创始人和政治官员,以证明在两种不同的政治和经济背景下,政治关系对公司绩效的差异影响。在1922年埃及独立之前,政治关系降低了公司的盈利能力,因为有关系的公司被认为与反殖民主义、民族主义运动结盟,令投资者感到不安。独立后,关联公司通过给予注册公司优先准入和保护关联公司免受竞争,改善了企业的业绩。这些动态反映了从自由放任的殖民政权到民族主义产业政策的转变,这种政策有选择地支持有政治关系的公司。
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引用次数: 0
Poverty and parental discipline 贫穷和父母管教
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103694
Mo Alloush , Emily Conover , Susan Godlonton
Across and within countries, there are large differences in how parents discipline their children, and frequently, poverty is associated with higher levels of physical punishment. We leverage the roll-out of a conditional cash transfer program in Peru to test whether its introduction changes parental discipline practices. We find that in districts that begin to receive the program, the average level of reported physical punishment by mothers and fathers among the poor declines by at least 2.7 percentage points (11%) driven by reductions in slapping. Our findings suggest that program participation may have additional second-order benefits through the reduction of harsh physical forms of discipline practices.
在国家之间和国家内部,父母管教孩子的方式存在很大差异,而且贫困往往与较高程度的体罚有关。我们利用秘鲁推出的有条件现金转移支付项目来测试该项目的引入是否会改变父母管教的做法。我们发现,在开始接受该计划的地区,由于打耳光的减少,报告的穷人中父母体罚的平均水平下降了至少2.7个百分点(11%)。我们的研究结果表明,通过减少严厉的身体形式的纪律实践,参与项目可能有额外的二阶好处。
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引用次数: 0
Feeling the same heat? Urban–rural inequalities in adapting to extreme temperatures via electricity consumption 感受同样的热度?通过电力消耗来适应极端温度的城乡不平等
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103692
Caiquan Bai , Jing Cao , Ming Huang , Chen Xi , Peng Zhang
This paper leverages novel high-frequency electricity consumption data to examine whether urban and rural residents in China are adapting unevenly to short-run extreme heat shocks and long-run climate warming. We demonstrate that both urban and rural groups increase their electricity consumption during transient day-to-day extreme heat events, with the former showing significantly stronger responses, thus revealing a notable adaptation inequality. We document the existence of the urban heat island, but its role in explaining the observed urban–rural adaptation disparity is negligible. Instead, the more fundamental urban–rural real income gap, closely tied to adaptive capacity, almost entirely accounts for the observed difference. In the long run, we find that climate warming over the past 5–20 years significantly promotes adaptation strategy in urban and rural groups, but no evident disparity is observed between these groups. Rural residents have experienced higher income growth over the past decade, which enabled them to afford durable adaptive equipment that is on par with that of their urban counterparts.
本文利用新颖的高频电力消费数据来研究中国城乡居民对短期极端高温冲击和长期气候变暖的适应是否不均衡。研究表明,城市和农村群体在短暂的日常极端高温事件中都增加了用电量,前者表现出明显更强的响应,从而揭示了显著的适应不平等。我们记录了城市热岛的存在,但其在解释观察到的城乡适应差异中的作用可以忽略不计。相反,与适应能力密切相关的更根本的城乡实际收入差距几乎完全解释了观察到的差异。从长期来看,过去5 ~ 20年气候变暖显著促进了城市和农村群体的适应策略,但两者之间没有明显差异。过去十年,农村居民的收入增长较快,这使他们能够负担得起与城市居民相当的耐用适应性设备。
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引用次数: 0
A parsimonious approach to predicting income distributions 一种预测收入分配的节俭方法
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103695
Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Marta Schoch, Christoph Lakner, Minh Cong Nguyen
This paper develops a method to predict comparable income and consumption distributions for all countries in the world from a simple regression with a handful of country-level variables. To fit the model, the analysis uses around 2,000 distributions from household surveys covering 168 countries from the World Bank's Poverty and Inequality Platform. More than 1,000 economic, demographic, and remote sensing predictors from multiple databases are used to test the models. A model is selected that balances out-of-sample accuracy, simplicity, and the share of countries for which it can be applied. The paper finds that a parsimonious model relying on gross domestic product per capita, under-5 mortality rate, life expectancy, and rural population share gives almost the same accuracy as a complex machine learning model using 1,000 indicators jointly. This small set of basic indicators related to human development explains most cross-country variation in income distributions and can facilitate distributional analysis even in countries with extreme data deprivation.
本文发展了一种方法来预测可比收入和消费分布的世界上所有国家从一个简单的回归与少数国家层面的变量。为了拟合该模型,该分析使用了来自世界银行贫困与不平等平台覆盖168个国家的家庭调查的约2000个分布。来自多个数据库的1000多个经济、人口和遥感预测者被用于测试这些模型。选择一个模型,以平衡样本外准确性、简单性和可以应用该模型的国家的比例。该论文发现,一个依赖于人均国内生产总值、5岁以下儿童死亡率、预期寿命和农村人口比例的简约模型,与一个共同使用1000个指标的复杂机器学习模型几乎具有相同的准确性。这一套与人类发展有关的基本指标解释了收入分配的大多数跨国差异,甚至可以在数据极度匮乏的国家促进分配分析。
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引用次数: 0
Public procurement and firms: Evidence from Kenya 公共采购和企业:来自肯尼亚的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103688
Justice Tei Mensah , Peter Chacha Wankuru , Benard K. Kirui
How important is government business to the private sector in developing economies? We use administrative tax data on firm-to-firm transactions in Kenya to examine the effects of becoming a government contractor on firm performance. Using an event study design, we document significant gains from becoming a supplier to a government entity. Four years later, beneficiary firms experience a 27% increase in productivity and employ 10% more. These effects are somewhat comparable to the gains from joining a multinational supply chain. Beneficiary firms also expand their trading networks to other private firms. Relaxing credit constraints and improving resilience to shocks are likely operative channels of impact. These findings highlight the potential welfare gains from improving efficiency in public procurement.
在发展中经济体,政府业务对私营部门有多重要?我们使用肯尼亚企业间交易的行政税收数据来检验成为政府承包商对企业绩效的影响。使用事件研究设计,我们记录了成为政府实体供应商的重大收益。四年后,受益企业的生产率提高了27%,雇员增加了10%。这些影响在某种程度上与加入跨国供应链的收益相当。受益公司还将其贸易网络扩展到其他私营公司。放松信贷约束和提高抗冲击能力可能是有效的影响渠道。这些发现突出了提高公共采购效率所带来的潜在福利收益。
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引用次数: 0
Electoral politics over automation in a dual economy 在双重经济中,选举政治胜过自动化
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103693
Jaideep Roy , Bibhas Saha
When automation in a developing economy displaces low-skilled workers in the advanced sector, backward sector wages may fall due to in-migration of the ‘newly’ unemployed. Fear of job and income loss may then induce office-seeking political parties to announce regulatory policies on automation for electoral success. We show that absent sectoral spillover, democratic adoption of automation is relatively higher and protects only high-skilled jobs in the advanced sector. However, the possibility of spillover limits this adoption. More specifically, if the backward sector is large, automation faces full resistance. In contrast, if the advanced sector is large, automation is moderate, making only the low-skilled jobs vulnerable. But these vulnerable workers, unlike their counterparts in the backward sector, may prefer automation because their advanced-sector wages fall below the severance pay plus backward-sector opportunities. When neither sector is large, the size of automation becomes uncertain, pushing similar economies into different growth paths.
当发展中经济体的自动化取代了先进部门的低技能工人时,落后部门的工资可能会由于“新”失业者的移民而下降。对失业和收入损失的担忧可能会促使寻求职位的政党宣布有关自动化的监管政策,以在选举中获胜。我们表明,在没有部门溢出的情况下,自动化的民主采用相对较高,并且只保护先进部门的高技能工作。然而,溢出的可能性限制了这种采用。更具体地说,如果落后行业很大,自动化将面临全面阻力。相反,如果先进行业规模很大,自动化程度就会比较温和,只有低技能的工作岗位容易受到影响。但与落后行业的工人不同,这些弱势工人可能更喜欢自动化,因为他们在先进行业的工资低于遣散费和落后行业的机会。当这两个行业的规模都不大时,自动化的规模就变得不确定,从而将类似的经济体推向不同的增长路径。
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引用次数: 0
Children’s say in the household 孩子们在家里说了算
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-11-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103689
Ömer F. Sözbir
Analyzing children’s agency is crucial for understanding the inner workings of households. This issue is especially salient for developing countries, as childless families constitute a small portion of the population. This study tests the intra-household decision-making power of work-eligible children (age 12–17) in rural Bangladesh using a restriction implied by the collective household model. By comparing households with working and non-working children, the study also tests whether working children have a greater say in their households than non-working ones. The findings suggest some evidence for children’s decision-making power. The unitary household model is strongly rejected, and there is no evidence against Pareto efficiency. The results are particularly useful for the growing body of research that estimates intra-household inequality and individual-level poverty in developing countries using the collective model with certain assumptions on children’s decision-making power. In addition to investigating children’s say in the household, the study addresses several methodological issues in the literature regarding the price-based test of alternative collective models and Pareto efficiency.
分析儿童机构对于理解家庭内部运作至关重要。这个问题对发展中国家尤其突出,因为没有子女的家庭只占人口的一小部分。本研究使用集体家庭模型隐含的限制来测试孟加拉国农村符合工作条件的儿童(12-17岁)的家庭内部决策权。通过比较有工作和不工作的孩子的家庭,这项研究还测试了工作的孩子是否比不工作的孩子在家庭中有更大的发言权。这些发现为儿童的决策能力提供了一些证据。单一家庭模型被强烈拒绝,并且没有证据反对帕累托效率。这些结果对越来越多的研究机构特别有用,这些研究机构使用集体模型,对儿童的决策权进行某些假设,估计发展中国家家庭内部的不平等和个人一级的贫困。除了调查儿童在家庭中的发言权外,该研究还解决了文献中关于基于价格的替代集体模型和帕累托效率测试的几个方法学问题。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Development Economics
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