Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629
Pauline Rossi , Yun Xiao
Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder.
{"title":"Left over or opting out? Squeeze, mismatch and surplus in Chinese marriage markets","authors":"Pauline Rossi , Yun Xiao","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103629","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Marriage is declining in China. Among singles, the probability of marrying in 2019 was half that of marrying in 1999. We estimate a Choo and Siow (2006b) model using census data to quantify the relative roles of changes in population structure and changes in marital surplus, i.e., the value of marriage. We find that the increase in the supply of educated people explains half of the decline, partly due to a mismatch between highly-educated women and less-educated men. The deterioration of female-to-male ratio, known as marriage squeeze, explains an additional 13% for men. The decrease in surplus accounts for the remainder.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103629"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-24DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103689
Ömer F. Sözbir
Analyzing children’s agency is crucial for understanding the inner workings of households. This issue is especially salient for developing countries, as childless families constitute a small portion of the population. This study tests the intra-household decision-making power of work-eligible children (age 12–17) in rural Bangladesh using a restriction implied by the collective household model. By comparing households with working and non-working children, the study also tests whether working children have a greater say in their households than non-working ones. The findings suggest some evidence for children’s decision-making power. The unitary household model is strongly rejected, and there is no evidence against Pareto efficiency. The results are particularly useful for the growing body of research that estimates intra-household inequality and individual-level poverty in developing countries using the collective model with certain assumptions on children’s decision-making power. In addition to investigating children’s say in the household, the study addresses several methodological issues in the literature regarding the price-based test of alternative collective models and Pareto efficiency.
{"title":"Children’s say in the household","authors":"Ömer F. Sözbir","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103689","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103689","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Analyzing children’s agency is crucial for understanding the inner workings of households. This issue is especially salient for developing countries, as childless families constitute a small portion of the population. This study tests the intra-household decision-making power of work-eligible children (age 12–17) in rural Bangladesh using a restriction implied by the collective household model. By comparing households with working and non-working children, the study also tests whether working children have a greater say in their households than non-working ones. The findings suggest some evidence for children’s decision-making power. The unitary household model is strongly rejected, and there is no evidence against Pareto efficiency. The results are particularly useful for the growing body of research that estimates intra-household inequality and individual-level poverty in developing countries using the collective model with certain assumptions on children’s decision-making power. In addition to investigating children’s say in the household, the study addresses several methodological issues in the literature regarding the price-based test of alternative collective models and Pareto efficiency.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103689"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145693010","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-15DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103597
Jamie Hansen-Lewis
I analyze the impact of air pollution on manufacturing productivity in India, examining how technology and adaptation influence the damages. Using firm panel and satellite-derived pollution data, I estimate the effect of pollution on productivity, with wind velocity serving as an instrument for air pollution. While sensitivity is detected among labor-intensive industries, no meaningful average effect is found. To explain these patterns, I present a model showing that firms adapt by lowering output to mitigate pollution damages and that industries’ production technology contributes to heterogeneity. Applying the model, I estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the labor intensity of production technology results in a 0.6 percentage point greater negative impact of pollution on productivity. The findings imply that the damages of pollution to profits are twice as high among adversely affected industries than the average and four times higher when inputs remain fixed relative to when they adapt.
{"title":"Air pollution and manufacturing productivity: Understanding the roles of technology and adaptation","authors":"Jamie Hansen-Lewis","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103597","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103597","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I analyze the impact of air pollution on manufacturing productivity in India, examining how technology and adaptation influence the damages. Using firm panel and satellite-derived pollution data, I estimate the effect of pollution on productivity, with wind velocity serving as an instrument for air pollution. While sensitivity is detected among labor-intensive industries, no meaningful average effect is found. To explain these patterns, I present a model showing that firms adapt by lowering output to mitigate pollution damages and that industries’ production technology contributes to heterogeneity. Applying the model, I estimate that a one standard deviation increase in the labor intensity of production technology results in a 0.6 percentage point greater negative impact of pollution on productivity. The findings imply that the damages of pollution to profits are twice as high among adversely affected industries than the average and four times higher when inputs remain fixed relative to when they adapt.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103597"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103647
Xiaoguang Chen , Binlei Gong , Zhilong Qin , Xiaoli Wang
We estimate the impacts of China's extensive high-speed railroads (HSR) expansions using both county-level and household-level agricultural data. Our estimates indicate that HSR expansions: (i) facilitated the outflow of labor from agriculture and reduced cropland in connected rural areas, particularly in underdeveloped regions; (ii) increased agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), effectively offsetting the negative impacts on agricultural output from reduced inputs; (iii) significantly boosted local GDP and government revenue, providing financial support for agriculture and critical investments in agricultural infrastructure and rural roads; (iv) facilitated farmers' access to technical training and encouraged the entry of new agribusiness firms; and (v) increased farmers' revenues and profits, strengthening their economic incentives for production and collectively improving agricultural TFP.
{"title":"High-speed railroads and local agricultural development","authors":"Xiaoguang Chen , Binlei Gong , Zhilong Qin , Xiaoli Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We estimate the impacts of China's extensive high-speed railroads (HSR) expansions using both county-level and household-level agricultural data. Our estimates indicate that HSR expansions: (<em>i</em>) facilitated the outflow of labor from agriculture and reduced cropland in connected rural areas, particularly in underdeveloped regions; (<em>ii</em>) increased agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), effectively offsetting the negative impacts on agricultural output from reduced inputs; (<em>iii</em>) significantly boosted local GDP and government revenue, providing financial support for agriculture and critical investments in agricultural infrastructure and rural roads; (<em>iv</em>) facilitated farmers' access to technical training and encouraged the entry of new agribusiness firms; and (<em>v</em>) increased farmers' revenues and profits, strengthening their economic incentives for production and collectively improving agricultural TFP.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103647"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145158869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-10-14DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103665
Xintong Han , Jan Victor Dee , Shaojia Wang , Kefan Chen
We examine how a government-initiated e-commerce platform (GEP) affects sales of a local specialty in China’s Pu’er tea market. Using a unique dataset from field experiments and surveys of 983 farmers, we examine changes in online and offline sales over time. We employ two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models to identify the causal impact of GEP access. The results reveal significant substitution effects: access to the GEP increases online sales by 16.649% and decreases offline sales by 15.549%, indicating an overall shift from offline to online sales. On the extensive margin, households that previously sold only offline become more likely to sell online. On the intensive margin, adopters expand their online channels and offer a wider range of tea qualities. The mediation analysis suggests that the increase in online sales channels and product variety accounts for the impact of GEP access on the shift to online transactions.
{"title":"Digital revitalization or useless effort? Public e-commerce support and local specialty sales","authors":"Xintong Han , Jan Victor Dee , Shaojia Wang , Kefan Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103665","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103665","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine how a government-initiated e-commerce platform (GEP) affects sales of a local specialty in China’s Pu’er tea market. Using a unique dataset from field experiments and surveys of 983 farmers, we examine changes in online and offline sales over time. We employ two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models to identify the causal impact of GEP access. The results reveal significant substitution effects: access to the GEP increases online sales by 16.649% and decreases offline sales by 15.549%, indicating an overall shift from offline to online sales. On the extensive margin, households that previously sold only offline become more likely to sell online. On the intensive margin, adopters expand their online channels and offer a wider range of tea qualities. The mediation analysis suggests that the increase in online sales channels and product variety accounts for the impact of GEP access on the shift to online transactions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103665"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145333326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103678
Manho Kang , Jaerim Choi , Sunghoon Chung
This paper examines the impact of environmental regulations on hazardous chemical use and the role of innovation in firms’ adjustment processes. Using a newly constructed dataset that links firm-level chemical usage with patent activity, we analyze the effects of Korea’s plausibly exogenous chemical safety Acts promulgated in 2015. Our findings show that firms subject to stricter regulations reduced their reliance on hazardous chemicals to comply with the new laws. Innovation plays a crucial role in this transition, facilitating a shift toward eco-friendly practices. Specifically, stricter regulations induced more firm-level innovation, and firms with greater product innovation significantly reduced their hazardous chemical usage. The effect was particularly strong among firms that use hazardous substances as intermediate inputs. These findings demonstrate that well-designed regulation can promote the principles of Green Chemistry, prevention through redesign, by driving innovation.
{"title":"Environmental regulation, induced innovation, and greener transition: Firm-level evidence","authors":"Manho Kang , Jaerim Choi , Sunghoon Chung","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103678","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103678","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the impact of environmental regulations on hazardous chemical use and the role of innovation in firms’ adjustment processes. Using a newly constructed dataset that links firm-level chemical usage with patent activity, we analyze the effects of Korea’s plausibly exogenous chemical safety Acts promulgated in 2015. Our findings show that firms subject to stricter regulations reduced their reliance on hazardous chemicals to comply with the new laws. Innovation plays a crucial role in this transition, facilitating a shift toward eco-friendly practices. Specifically, stricter regulations induced more firm-level innovation, and firms with greater product innovation significantly reduced their hazardous chemical usage. The effect was particularly strong among firms that use hazardous substances as intermediate inputs. These findings demonstrate that well-designed regulation can promote the principles of Green Chemistry, prevention through redesign, by driving innovation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103678"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145473631","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-04DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103615
Abdoulaye Cisse , Alain de Janvry , Joel Ferguson , Marco Gonzalez-Navarro , Samba Mbaye , Elisabeth Sadoulet , Mame Mor Anta Syll
Expanding irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa is widely viewed as a promising strategy for closing yield gaps and enhancing resilience to climate change. Drawing on more than 3,000 satellite images over a 30-year period, we examine the impact of irrigation infrastructure development in the Senegal River Valley. We find that cultivation rates increase substantially following irrigation project completion. Cultivation rates are remarkably stable at around 25 percentage points above pre-irrigation levels for the first 20 years, and trend even higher from years 20 to 25. Moreover, we show that crops cultivated on irrigated land are significantly less sensitive to both positive and negative temperature shocks, underscoring the role of irrigation in climate adaptation. Despite these aggregate gains, we document considerable heterogeneity in project outcomes, with intermittent land use remaining widespread. To shed light on these patterns, we complement the satellite analysis with farmer survey data, which point to persistent water access constraints as a key barrier to continuous cultivation—constraints that cannot be resolved solely through individual farmer action.
{"title":"Irrigation infrastructure and satellite-measured land cultivation impacts: Evidence from the Senegal river valley","authors":"Abdoulaye Cisse , Alain de Janvry , Joel Ferguson , Marco Gonzalez-Navarro , Samba Mbaye , Elisabeth Sadoulet , Mame Mor Anta Syll","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103615","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103615","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Expanding irrigation in sub-Saharan Africa is widely viewed as a promising strategy for closing yield gaps and enhancing resilience to climate change. Drawing on more than 3,000 satellite images over a 30-year period, we examine the impact of irrigation infrastructure development in the Senegal River Valley. We find that cultivation rates increase substantially following irrigation project completion. Cultivation rates are remarkably stable at around 25 percentage points above pre-irrigation levels for the first 20 years, and trend even higher from years 20 to 25. Moreover, we show that crops cultivated on irrigated land are significantly less sensitive to both positive and negative temperature shocks, underscoring the role of irrigation in climate adaptation. Despite these aggregate gains, we document considerable heterogeneity in project outcomes, with intermittent land use remaining widespread. To shed light on these patterns, we complement the satellite analysis with farmer survey data, which point to persistent water access constraints as a key barrier to continuous cultivation—constraints that cannot be resolved solely through individual farmer action.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103615"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145107219","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-29DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648
Jeffrey D. Michler , Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi , Jonathan Giezendanner , Anna Josephson , Valerien O. Pede , Elizabeth Tellman
New technologies are sometimes introduced at times or in places that lack the necessary data to conduct a well-identified impact evaluation. We develop a methodology that combines Earth Observation (EO) data and deep learning with administrative and survey data so as to allow researchers to conduct impact evaluations when traditional economic data is missing. To demonstrate our method, we study stress tolerant rice varieties (STRVs) first introduced to Bangladesh 15 years ago. Using EO data on rice production and flooding for the entire country, spanning two decades, we find evidence of STRV effectiveness. We highlight how the nature of the technology, which is only effective under a specific set of circumstances, creates a Goldilocks Problem that EO data is particularly well suited to addressing. Our findings speak to the promises and challenges of using EO data to conduct impact evaluations in data-scarce environments.
{"title":"Impact evaluations in data-scarce environments: The case of stress-tolerant rice varieties in Bangladesh","authors":"Jeffrey D. Michler , Dewan Abdullah Al Rafi , Jonathan Giezendanner , Anna Josephson , Valerien O. Pede , Elizabeth Tellman","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>New technologies are sometimes introduced at times or in places that lack the necessary data to conduct a well-identified impact evaluation. We develop a methodology that combines Earth Observation (EO) data and deep learning with administrative and survey data so as to allow researchers to conduct impact evaluations when traditional economic data is missing. To demonstrate our method, we study stress tolerant rice varieties (STRVs) first introduced to Bangladesh 15 years ago. Using EO data on rice production and flooding for the entire country, spanning two decades, we find evidence of STRV effectiveness. We highlight how the nature of the technology, which is only effective under a specific set of circumstances, creates a Goldilocks Problem that EO data is particularly well suited to addressing. Our findings speak to the promises and challenges of using EO data to conduct impact evaluations in data-scarce environments.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103648"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145362570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-12DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103618
Yutong Chen
Digitalization can increase firm productivity, but in developing countries with labor market frictions, not all firms are able to capitalize on digitalization opportunities. This study uses data from India – where a demonetization policy led to a large increase in digital payments – to examine the impacts of digitalization on firms across sectors in a developing country in the short run. I find that service firms experienced growth in income and productivity while manufacturing firms witnessed a decline. I then explore the mechanisms driving this divergence. The results show that service firms invested more in information and communications technology (ICT) capital and hired more complementary skilled ICT labor, whereas manufacturing firms did not. Notably, this influx of skilled ICT workers into the service sector was drawn from the manufacturing sector due to limited spatial labor mobility. During this period, wages for ICT labor were driven up while remaining stagnant for other workers. These findings underscore how digitalization, in the presence of labor market constraints, can exacerbate short-term sectoral divergence in productivity growth and shed light on its impacts on the growth trajectories of developing countries.
{"title":"Digitalization as a double-edged sword: Winning services and losing manufacturing in India","authors":"Yutong Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103618","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103618","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Digitalization can increase firm productivity, but in developing countries with labor market frictions, not all firms are able to capitalize on digitalization opportunities. This study uses data from India – where a demonetization policy led to a large increase in digital payments – to examine the impacts of digitalization on firms across sectors in a developing country in the short run. I find that service firms experienced growth in income and productivity while manufacturing firms witnessed a decline. I then explore the mechanisms driving this divergence. The results show that service firms invested more in information and communications technology (ICT) capital and hired more complementary skilled ICT labor, whereas manufacturing firms did not. Notably, this influx of skilled ICT workers into the service sector was drawn from the manufacturing sector due to limited spatial labor mobility. During this period, wages for ICT labor were driven up while remaining stagnant for other workers. These findings underscore how digitalization, in the presence of labor market constraints, can exacerbate short-term sectoral divergence in productivity growth and shed light on its impacts on the growth trajectories of developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103618"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145050015","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-20DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103644
Annika Herr, Soschia Karimi, Julian Wichert
A growing body of literature indicates that heat stress and precipitation deficiencies can pose a critical threat to human health, particularly in less developed countries with low coping capacities and high exposure. The aims of this study are twofold. First, we shed light on the recall of drought events in rural Thailand by linking longitudinal survey data with objective meteorological data. Here, an anomaly in the survey design serves as a natural experiment. We find that a shorter time interval between surveys has a large positive effect on households correctly reporting a drought event. Second, we examine the health effects of droughts comparing two drought measures. In our panel over seven waves, we find a strong effect on diseases, which is slightly stronger for the objective measure than when using the reported drought measure.
{"title":"Weather shocks, recall error and health","authors":"Annika Herr, Soschia Karimi, Julian Wichert","doi":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103644","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103644","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A growing body of literature indicates that heat stress and precipitation deficiencies can pose a critical threat to human health, particularly in less developed countries with low coping capacities and high exposure. The aims of this study are twofold. First, we shed light on the recall of drought events in rural Thailand by linking longitudinal survey data with objective meteorological data. Here, an anomaly in the survey design serves as a natural experiment. We find that a shorter time interval between surveys has a large positive effect on households correctly reporting a drought event. Second, we examine the health effects of droughts comparing two drought measures. In our panel over seven waves, we find a strong effect on diseases, which is slightly stronger for the objective measure than when using the reported drought measure.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48418,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Development Economics","volume":"179 ","pages":"Article 103644"},"PeriodicalIF":4.6,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145119158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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