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Income shocks and mortality of low-wage workers: Evidence from wage allowances in Brazil 低收入工人的收入冲击和死亡率:来自巴西工资津贴的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103656
Caio Pedro Castro , Raphael Corbi
We examine the short-term impact of income shocks on mortality in Brazil using administrative data and the quasi-random timing of disbursements from a federal wage allowance program for low-income workers. Exploiting variation in payment timing by birth month and a sharp eligibility cutoff, we find that mortality increases by 9.5% during the week of payment, particularly for deaths related to economic activity such as cardiovascular conditions and external causes. Effects are strongest in areas with low financial development and poor healthcare access, suggesting that limited consumption smoothing and delayed medical care amplify mortality risks. Our findings highlight how institutional constraints in developing countries shape the health consequences of predictable income transfers, with implications for the design and timing of social protection programs.
我们使用行政数据和准随机的低收入工人联邦工资津贴计划支付时间来检验巴西收入冲击对死亡率的短期影响。利用按出生月份支付时间的变化和明显的资格截止时间,我们发现,在支付的一周内,死亡率增加了9.5%,特别是与心血管疾病和外部原因等经济活动有关的死亡。在金融发展水平较低和医疗保健可及性较差的地区,这种影响最为强烈,这表明有限的消费平滑和延迟的医疗服务放大了死亡风险。我们的研究结果强调了发展中国家的制度限制如何影响可预测收入转移的健康后果,并对社会保护计划的设计和时机产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
The decision-makers we become: Early education and the decision-making of boys and girls 我们成为决策者:男孩和女孩的早期教育和决策
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103660
Leandro S. Carvalho , Joana Cardim , Pedro Carneiro , Damien de Walque
One way to advance our understanding of individual differences in decision-making is to study the development of children's decision-making. This paper studies the causal effects of daycare attendance on children's economic preferences and decision-making abilities, exploiting a lottery system that randomized admissions into oversubscribed daycare centers in Rio de Janeiro. Impacts are estimated separately for boys and girls. Daycare attendance increased the decision-making quality of boys by 0.16 standard deviations (SD) and the aversion of girls to disadvantageous inequality (i.e., having less than one's peer) by 0.23 SD. It also decreased the self-control of boys by 0.19 SD.
研究儿童决策的发展,是提高我们对决策个体差异理解的一种方法。本文研究了日托出勤率对儿童经济偏好和决策能力的因果影响,利用抽签系统随机录取超额认购的巴西里约热内卢日托中心。对男孩和女孩的影响是分开估计的。参加日托使男孩的决策质量提高了0.16个标准差(SD),使女孩对不利的不平等(即比同龄人少)的厌恶程度提高了0.23个标准差。它还使男孩的自制力降低了0.19个标准差。
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引用次数: 0
Social protection and social distancing during the pandemic: Mobile money transfers in Ghana 大流行期间的社会保护和社交距离:加纳的移动汇款
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103657
Dean Karlan , Matt Lowe , Robert Osei , Isaac Osei-Akoto , Benjamin N. Roth , Christopher Udry
We randomized mobile money transfers to a sample of low-income Ghanaians during the COVID-19 pandemic. Treated households received eight transfers that sum to roughly one month’s income, while control households only received one transfer. The mere announcement of upcoming transfers has no effect. Once disbursed, transfers increase contemporaneous food expenditure by 8% and income by 20%, but do not affect psychological well-being. Over 40% of the transfers are spent on food. We find suggestive evidence that transfers increased social distancing. The positive effect on income does not persist to two years after the last transfer, and surprisingly, two-year effects on consumption and psychological well-being are negative. Together, we learn that pandemic-era cash transfers can support households economically without diminishing adherence to public health protocols, though with null or negative long-term effects.
在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,我们对低收入的加纳人样本进行了随机移动汇款。接受治疗的家庭收到了8笔汇款,总额大约相当于一个月的收入,而对照组家庭只收到了1笔汇款。仅仅宣布即将到来的转会是没有效果的。一旦支付,转移支付会使同期食品支出增加8%,收入增加20%,但不会影响心理健康。超过40%的转移用于购买食品。我们发现了一些有启发性的证据,表明转移增加了社会距离。对收入的积极影响不会持续到最后一次转移后的两年,令人惊讶的是,对消费和心理健康的两年影响是负面的。我们共同了解到,大流行时期的现金转移支付可以在经济上支持家庭,而不会削弱对公共卫生协议的遵守,尽管长期影响是无效的或负面的。
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引用次数: 0
Caste identity and teachers’ biased expectations: Evidence from Bihar, India 种姓身份与教师的偏见期望:来自印度比哈尔邦的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103650
Ritwik Banerjee , Satarupa Mitra , Soham Sahoo , Ashmita Gupta
We investigate whether teachers hold systematically biased expectations about students based on caste identity, using data from a large, detailed, and representative survey of public schools in Bihar, India. Students take standardized tests that determine their actual academic rank, while teachers independently rate each student’s relative standing within the class. The gap between a student’s actual rank and their teacher’s perceived rating gives us a measure of the teacher’s Evaluation Bias. Using a teacher fixed-effect approach, we find that forward caste teachers systematically underestimate the performance of backward caste students compared to forward caste peers taught in the same class. These caste-based differences in Evaluation Bias remain robust to alternative definitions of backward caste status and different measures of students’ performance.
我们使用来自印度比哈尔邦公立学校的大规模、详细和具有代表性的调查数据,调查教师是否基于种姓身份对学生抱有系统性偏见。学生参加标准化考试,以确定他们的实际学术排名,而教师则独立评估每个学生在班上的相对地位。学生的实际排名和老师的感知评分之间的差距可以让我们衡量老师的评价偏差。使用教师固定效应方法,我们发现,与同一班级的前种姓学生相比,前种姓教师系统地低估了后种姓学生的表现。这些基于种姓的评价偏见差异对于落后种姓地位的不同定义和学生表现的不同衡量标准仍然是强有力的。
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引用次数: 0
Two birds, one stone: Responses of agriculture to water pollution regulation 两鸟一石:农业对水污染管制的反应
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103668
Binlei Gong , Haoyang Li , Liguo Lin , Hanxiang Ling , Wei Sun
This paper exploits China’s Water Quality Control Assessment Plan as a natural experiment to examine the impact of environmental regulation on fertilizer use and food security. Leveraging variation in enforcement incentives across counties determined by their locations relative to water quality monitoring stations, we document a 5.9 % fertilizer application reduction in upstream counties, driven by reduction in public financial support for agriculture. Salience of information highlighting agriculture as a major pollution source reinforces enforcement incentives in curbing fertilizer use. Agricultural output remained stable, reflecting both prior overuse of fertilizer and slight productivity gains likely associated with improved water quality.
本文以中国水质控制评价计划为自然实验,考察环境规制对肥料使用和粮食安全的影响。利用各县相对于水质监测站的位置所决定的执法激励的差异,我们记录了上游县的化肥施用减少了5.9%,这是由于对农业的公共财政支持减少所致。突出显示农业是主要污染源的信息加强了限制化肥使用的执法激励措施。农业产出保持稳定,反映了之前过度使用化肥和可能与水质改善相关的生产力略有提高。
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引用次数: 0
Seasonality, academic calendar and school dropouts in South Asia 南亚的季节性、学历和辍学率
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103649
Seiro Ito , Abu S. Shonchoy
Rural families in developing countries often face a critical trade-off: keeping children in school or involving them in seasonal agricultural labor. Misaligned school calendars intensify this challenge, significantly increasing school dropout rates. Leveraging the timing of Ramadan school holidays as a natural experiment, we find that annual exams coinciding with the harvest season increase school dropout rates by 6.6 to 9.0 percentage points (from the base of 25% dropout) among children from agricultural households in Bangladesh. This effect is predominantly driven by boys who participate in peak seasonal agricultural activities. Our findings are robust to varying age cut-offs and definitions of agricultural households. Long-term analyses employing age-specific cohorts using national household surveys corroborate these results. Complementary evidence from India, exploiting state-level academic calendar variations, further supports the findings. This study underscores the importance of carefully designing school calendars in rural areas that align with local agricultural seasonality.
发展中国家的农村家庭往往面临着一个关键的权衡:让孩子上学还是让他们从事季节性农业劳动。校历不一致加剧了这一挑战,大大增加了辍学率。利用斋月学校假期的时间作为一种自然实验,我们发现,与收获季节相吻合的年度考试使孟加拉国农业家庭儿童的辍学率增加了6.6至9.0个百分点(从25%的辍学率基数)。这种影响主要是由参加季节性农业活动的男孩造成的。我们的发现对于不同的年龄界限和农业家庭的定义是稳健的。采用国家家庭调查的特定年龄队列的长期分析证实了这些结果。来自印度的补充证据进一步支持了这些发现,这些证据利用了各州的学历差异。这项研究强调了精心设计符合当地农业季节性的农村地区校历的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Holy cows and spilled milk: The impact of religious missions on firm-level productivity 神圣的奶牛和洒出的牛奶:宗教使命对公司层面生产力的影响
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103651
Jeanet Sinding Bentzen , Nina Boberg-Fazlic , Paul Sharp , Christian Volmar Skovsgaard , Christian Vedel
Did religious missions influence firm-level productivity? This study examines the impact of the Inner Mission (IM) movement on productivity in early twentieth-century Denmark, a predominantly Protestant and homogeneous society undergoing rapid industrialization. Using data on 964 creameries and employing an instrumental variables approach, we provide evidence that IM intensity reduced productivity in butter production, measured by the Milk-to-Butter ratio. The main mechanisms were Sunday closures, which disrupted economies of scale, and the fragmentation of creameries due to doctrinal disagreements among farmers. These disruptions prevented creameries from operating efficiently and reduced their profitability. Our results show how religiosity shaped patterns of modernization and industrial development absent the usual colonial or missionary confounders. This historical case speaks to debates in development economics about how informal institutions and moral regulation can constrain firm behavior and productivity.
宗教使命是否影响公司层面的生产力?本研究考察了内在使命(IM)运动对二十世纪初丹麦生产力的影响,这是一个以新教和同质社会为主的快速工业化社会。利用964家乳品厂的数据,并采用工具变量方法,我们提供了证据,证明IM强度降低了黄油生产的生产率,通过牛奶与黄油的比率来衡量。主要机制是周日关闭,这破坏了规模经济,以及由于农民之间的教义分歧而导致乳品厂的分裂。这些干扰阻碍了乳品的高效运营,降低了它们的盈利能力。我们的研究结果表明,在没有殖民或传教士干扰的情况下,宗教信仰如何塑造了现代化和工业发展的模式。这一历史案例说明了发展经济学中关于非正式制度和道德监管如何约束企业行为和生产力的争论。
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引用次数: 0
Public good or public bad? Nation-building and Indigenous institutions 公共利益还是公共利益?国家建设和土著机构
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-10-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103652
Aldo Elizalde , Eduardo Hidalgo , Nayeli Salgado , Sotiris Kampanelis
While existing evidence shows that nation-building policies unify societies, little is known about how and what makes some societal groups to resist them. We examine this in the context of the post-Mexican Revolution (1920s–1950s), when the new state implemented a nation-building policy to eliminate Indigenous cultures and identities by increasing connectivity via transport infrastructure. In a difference-in-differences design, we leverage heterogeneity in the exposure to pre-colonial political centralisation as a proxy for the ability of Indigenous populations in mobilising to resist national integration. We find that the expansion of transport infrastructure was lower in municipalities with a stronger efficacy of Indigenous mobilisation. We demonstrate that this underprovision of public goods can be partly explained by Indigenous identity preservation and high abilities for collective actions.
虽然现有的证据表明,国家建设政策统一了社会,但人们对一些社会群体如何以及是什么抵制这些政策知之甚少。我们在墨西哥革命后(20世纪20年代至50年代)的背景下研究这一点,当时新国家实施了一项国家建设政策,通过增加交通基础设施的连通性来消除土著文化和身份。在差异中的差异设计中,我们利用前殖民时期政治集中化暴露的异质性作为土著居民动员抵抗民族一体化能力的代理。我们发现,在土著居民动员效率较高的城市,交通基础设施的扩张程度较低。我们证明,这种公共产品供应不足可以部分解释为土著身份保护和集体行动的高能力。
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引用次数: 0
Complementing business training with access to finance: Evidence from SMEs in Kenya 以融资渠道补充商业培训:来自肯尼亚中小企业的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103645
Anik Ashraf , Elizabeth Lyons
This paper investigates the complementarity between business training and timely access to financial capital for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Kenya. All participants in the business support program we study are offered training. One-third of participants are offered loans immediately after training (Concurrent Loan group), one-third are offered loans six weeks after training (Delayed Loan group), and the remaining third are offered loans after another four weeks (Control group). While a long time lag may reduce knowledge retention and application among SMEs, concurrent access to loans and associated business spending may divert the entrepreneurs’ attention away from improving business practices. We find evidence for the latter in both intention-to-treat and treatment-on-the-treated estimates. While SMEs in both Control and Delayed Loan groups improve their business practices, SMEs in the Concurrent Loan group who take loans do not improve their practices at all. Moreover, entrepreneurs who take loans spend less time on their businesses and experience declines in their business revenue.
本文研究了肯尼亚中小企业业务培训与及时获得金融资本之间的互补性。我们研究的所有商业支持计划的参与者都得到了培训。三分之一的参与者在培训后立即获得贷款(同步贷款组),三分之一的参与者在培训后六周获得贷款(延迟贷款组),其余三分之一的参与者在培训后四周获得贷款(对照组)。虽然长时间滞后可能会减少中小企业的知识保留和应用,但同时获得贷款和相关业务支出可能会转移企业家对改进业务实践的注意力。我们在意向治疗和治疗对治疗的估计中都发现了后者的证据。虽然控制贷款组和延迟贷款组中的中小企业都改进了他们的业务实践,但同时贷款组中的中小企业根本没有改进他们的实践。此外,贷款的企业家花在生意上的时间更少,业务收入也会下降。
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引用次数: 0
Rural pension, factor reallocation and agricultural productivity: Evidence from China 农村养老、要素再配置与农业生产率:来自中国的证据
IF 4.6 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-09-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103653
Shouhan Dai, Binlei Gong, Peinan Hu, Xiaoyun Wei
This study examines how pension schemes influence land reallocation and agricultural productivity. While previous research typically groups households based on the presence of elderly members, we distinguish between households where the elderly are operators and those where they are not. Our findings show that land is reallocated from elderly-operated to younger-operated households, leading to a 9.8 % increase in agricultural productivity. The rural pension scheme in China drives migration and land leasing out in elderly-operated households, while facilitating rent-in and scale expansion in younger households. These findings offer new insights into how pension schemes can enhance agricultural factor reallocation and productivity.
本研究考察了养老金计划如何影响土地再分配和农业生产力。虽然以前的研究通常是根据老年人的存在对家庭进行分组,但我们区分了老年人是经营者的家庭和不是经营者的家庭。我们的研究结果表明,土地从老年人经营的家庭重新分配给年轻人经营的家庭,导致农业生产力提高9.8%。中国的农村养老计划推动了老年人经营家庭的迁移和土地出租,同时促进了年轻家庭的租赁和规模扩张。这些发现为养老金计划如何促进农业要素再配置和生产力提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Development Economics
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