Journal of Development Economics最新文献

英文中文

Downstream impacts of mines on agriculture in Africa 地雷对非洲农业的下游影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103671

Lukas Vashold , Gustav Pirich , Maximilian Heinze , Nikolas Kuschnig

Mining operations in Africa are expanding rapidly, creating negative externalities that remain poorly understood. In this paper, we provide causal evidence for the impact of water pollution from mines on downstream vegetation and agriculture across the continent. We exploit a natural experiment, where mines cause a discontinuity in water pollution along river networks, to compare vegetation health in upstream and downstream locations. We find that mines significantly reduce peak vegetation downstream by 1.3–1.5%, impairing the productivity of over 74,000 km² of croplands. These reductions correspond to annual losses of 91,000–205,000 tons of cereal crops in the immediate vicinity alone, with particularly severe effects in fertile regions and areas where gold mining predominates. Our findings highlight substantial externalities of mining and demonstrate an urgent need for oversight and regulation.

非洲的采矿业务正在迅速扩大，造成的负面外部性仍不为人所知。在本文中，我们提供了因果证据的影响，从矿山水污染下游植被和农业在整个大陆。我们利用一项自然实验，在该实验中，矿山造成河网沿线水污染的不连续性，以比较上游和下游地区的植被健康状况。研究发现，矿山显著降低了下游植被峰值1.3-1.5%，影响了超过7.4万平方公里农田的生产力。这些减少相当于仅在邻近地区每年损失91,000-205,000吨谷类作物，对肥沃地区和金矿开采占主导地位的地区的影响尤其严重。我们的研究结果强调了采矿的大量外部性，并表明迫切需要进行监督和监管。

引用次数: 0

The consumption side of trade shocks: Inequality dynamics and luxury imports 贸易冲击的消费方面：不平等动态和奢侈品进口

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103663

Vinicius Curti Cícero , Laura Heras-Recuero

We study how a large, exogenous trade shock — triggered by China’s accession to the WTO in 2001 — reshaped income, inequality, and import behavior across Brazilian regions. Using a shift-share instrument based on pre-shock export structures, we show that regions more exposed to China’s demand boom experienced faster growth in per capita income and larger increases in within-region inequality relative to less exposed areas. These changes, in turn, led to rising import values and shifts in composition, especially toward consumption and medium- to high-tech manufactured goods. To analyze these shifts, we classify goods by necessity and luxury status using Brazilian household data and introduce a complementary classification based on the spending patterns of high-income households in the United States. Luxury imports rose most in regions that were initially more unequal or experienced sharper post-shock inequality growth, consistent with non-homothetic preferences and broader theories of stratified consumption. Our findings highlight inequality as a key channel through which trade shocks shape regional import demand in developing economies.

我们研究了一场巨大的外生贸易冲击——由中国2001年加入世贸组织引发——如何重塑巴西各地区的收入、不平等和进口行为。使用基于冲击前出口结构的转移份额工具，我们表明，相对于受影响较小的地区，受中国需求繁荣影响较大的地区的人均收入增长更快，地区内不平等的增加幅度更大。这些变化又导致了进口价值的上升和构成的转变，特别是向消费品和中高科技制成品的转变。为了分析这些变化，我们使用巴西家庭数据按必需品和奢侈品状态对商品进行分类，并根据美国高收入家庭的消费模式引入补充分类。奢侈品进口增长最多的地区，是那些最初更不平等的地区，或者是那些经历了更剧烈的冲击后不平等增长的地区，这与非同质化偏好和更广泛的分层消费理论相一致。我们的研究结果强调，不平等是贸易冲击影响发展中经济体区域进口需求的一个关键渠道。

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引用次数: 0

Stimulating local economies through central transfers: A natural experiment from Ecuador 通过中央转移支付刺激地方经济：厄瓜多尔的自然实验

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103664

Leonardo Sánchez-Aragón , Gonzalo E. Sánchez , Wladimir Zanoni

This paper provides causal evidence on the economic impact of central-to-local government transfers in a developing country context. We exploit plausibly exogenous variation in municipal transfers generated by a 2018 reform to Ecuador’s intergovernmental allocation formula. Using a design-based instrumental variables strategy, we estimate that a 1% increase in government transfers led to a 0.94% increase in total business sales in 2018 and 1.05% in 2019. The strongest effects are found in non-VAT sales. Mechanism analysis shows that transfers boost local economic activity mainly through increased recurrent and capital spending, particularly wages and procurement, suggesting that well-designed transfers can act as effective local demand stimuli.

本文提供了发展中国家背景下中央对地方政府转移支付对经济影响的因果证据。我们利用了2018年厄瓜多尔政府间分配公式改革产生的市政转移支付中看似合理的外生变化。使用基于设计的工具变量策略，我们估计，政府转移支付增加1%，导致2018年企业总销售额增长0.94%，2019年增长1.05%。影响最大的是非增值税销售。机制分析表明，转移支付主要通过增加经常性支出和资本支出，特别是工资和采购来促进当地经济活动，这表明设计良好的转移支付可以有效地刺激当地需求。

引用次数: 0

Narrowing or widening the gender gap in market and domestic work? The impact of workweek reduction reform in China 缩小还是扩大市场和家务劳动中的性别差距？工作周减少改革对中国的影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103672

Ang Sun , Wei Sun , Wang Xiang , Huili Zhang , Junsen Zhang

We investigate whether shorter working hours can narrow the gender gap in market and domestic work by examining the impact of China's workweek reduction policy. We find that the policy deepened the gender division of labor within dual-employee households, resulting in women further leaning toward familial roles. Specifically, women allocated more time to childcare and other household chores, while men withdrew from these domestic duties, worked longer hours beyond the designated schedule, and pursued higher education. This shift contributed to improved income and career advancement for men, whereas women did not experience similar improvements. The impact of this polarized gender division of labor was particularly pronounced in households with higher demands for domestic product consumption or with higher male-female wage ratios prior to the reform. Our analysis demonstrates that under the shortened working hours system, families' optimization behavior manifests as a deepened household specialization aimed at maximizing household consumption, suggesting that the reduction in working hours may exacerbate labor market gender inequality.

我们通过考察中国减少工作周政策的影响来研究缩短工作时间是否可以缩小市场和家务劳动中的性别差距。我们发现，该政策加深了双职工家庭中的性别分工，导致女性进一步倾向于家庭角色。具体来说，女性将更多的时间分配给照顾孩子和其他家务，而男性则从这些家务中抽身出来，在指定的时间表之外工作更长时间，并追求更高的教育。这一转变有助于提高男性的收入和职业发展，而女性没有经历类似的改善。这种两极化的两性劳动分工的影响在改革前对国内产品消费需求较高或男女工资比较高的家庭中尤为明显。我们的分析表明，在缩短工作时间制度下，家庭的优化行为表现为以家庭消费最大化为目标的深化的家庭专业化，这表明工作时间的减少可能加剧劳动力市场的性别不平等。

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引用次数: 0

Beliefs, information sharing, and mental health care use among university students 大学生信仰、信息共享与心理保健使用

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103646

Alisher Batmanov , Idaliya Grigoryeva , Bruno Calderón-Hernández , Roberto González-Téllez , Alejandro Guardiola Ramírez

This paper investigates the role of beliefs and stigma in shaping students’ use of professional mental health services at a large private university in Mexico, where supply-side barriers are minimal and services are readily accessible. In a survey experiment with 680 students, we find that nearly 50% of students in distress do not receive professional mental health support despite a high level of awareness and perceived effectiveness, constituting a substantial treatment gap. We document stigmatized beliefs and misconceptions correlated with the treatment gap. As three-quarters of students incorrectly believe that those in distress perform worse academically and that the majority of students going to therapy are in severe distress, we implement an information intervention to correct these beliefs. We find that it increases students’ sharing of on-campus mental health resources with peers and encourages them to recommend these resources when advising a friend in distress. Interestingly, we find that it lowers respondents’ willingness to pay for private therapy at the end of the intervention. Yet, this effect does not translate into a long-run reduction in self-reported therapy use 6 months after the experiment, with prior therapy users showing increased off-campus take-up.

本文调查了信仰和耻辱在墨西哥一所大型私立大学塑造学生使用专业心理健康服务的作用，在那里，供应方障碍最小，服务很容易获得。在一项针对680名学生的调查实验中，我们发现，尽管有很高的意识和感知效果，但近50%的困难学生没有得到专业的心理健康支持，这构成了巨大的治疗差距。我们记录了与治疗差距相关的污名化信念和误解。由于四分之三的学生错误地认为那些处于痛苦中的人在学业上表现更差，并且大多数去接受治疗的学生都处于严重的痛苦中，我们实施了信息干预来纠正这些信念。我们发现，这增加了学生与同龄人分享校园心理健康资源，并鼓励他们在向陷入困境的朋友提供建议时推荐这些资源。有趣的是，我们发现它降低了受访者在干预结束时支付私人治疗的意愿。然而，这种效果并没有转化为实验后6个月自我报告的治疗使用的长期减少，先前的治疗使用者显示出校外使用的增加。

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引用次数: 0

Unlocking young women’s potential? The impact of a low-cost career guidance program 释放年轻女性的潜力？低成本职业指导项目的影响

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103662

Ankush Asri , Viola Asri , Anke Hoeffler

Societal expectations and gender norms constrain young people’s career planning, particularly for girls, limiting the role of personal interests in skill-building decisions. This study evaluates a low-cost, 10-hour career exploration intervention through a pre-registered, school-level, clustered randomized controlled trial with over 6,000 primarily female students in urban India. The program improved future planning and increased the importance students placed on personal interests in career choices. However, there is no evidence of medium-term impacts on educational or skill-building investments. These findings suggest that while scalable interventions can shift aspirations and planning, structural barriers constrain longer-term behavioral change.

社会期望和性别规范限制了年轻人，特别是女孩的职业规划，限制了个人兴趣在技能培养决策中的作用。本研究通过对印度城市6000多名主要是女学生进行预先登记的学校级集群随机对照试验，评估了一种低成本、10小时的职业探索干预措施。该项目改善了未来规划，提高了学生在职业选择中个人兴趣的重要性。然而，没有证据表明对教育或技能建设投资有中期影响。这些发现表明，虽然可扩展的干预措施可以改变愿望和规划，但结构性障碍限制了长期的行为改变。

引用次数: 0

Digital revitalization or useless effort? Public e-commerce support and local specialty sales 数字复兴还是无用的努力？公共电商支持和地方特产销售

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103665

Xintong Han , Jan Victor Dee , Shaojia Wang , Kefan Chen

We examine how a government-initiated e-commerce platform (GEP) affects sales of a local specialty in China’s Pu’er tea market. Using a unique dataset from field experiments and surveys of 983 farmers, we examine changes in online and offline sales over time. We employ two-way fixed effects (TWFE) models to identify the causal impact of GEP access. The results reveal significant substitution effects: access to the GEP increases online sales by 16.649% and decreases offline sales by 15.549%, indicating an overall shift from offline to online sales. On the extensive margin, households that previously sold only offline become more likely to sell online. On the intensive margin, adopters expand their online channels and offer a wider range of tea qualities. The mediation analysis suggests that the increase in online sales channels and product variety accounts for the impact of GEP access on the shift to online transactions.

我们研究了政府发起的电子商务平台（GEP）如何影响中国普洱茶市场上当地特产的销售。使用来自983名农民的实地实验和调查的独特数据集，我们研究了线上和线下销售随时间的变化。我们采用双向固定效应（TWFE）模型来确定GEP获取的因果影响。结果显示显著的替代效应：使用GEP使线上销售增加了16.649%，使线下销售减少了15.549%，表明整体销售从线下转向线上。从广泛的角度来看，以前只在线下销售的家庭更有可能在网上销售。在密集的边际上，采用者扩大了他们的在线渠道，并提供了更广泛的茶叶品质。中介分析表明，在线销售渠道和产品种类的增加是GEP访问对在线交易转移的影响。

引用次数: 0

Using free remotely sensed data to assess war-induced damage to agricultural cultivation: Evidence from Ukraine 利用免费遥感数据评估战争对农业种植造成的损害：来自乌克兰的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103661

Klaus Deininger , Daniel Ayalew Ali , Nataliia Kussul , Andrii Shelestov , Leonid Shumilo , Guido Lemoine

We use remotely sensed data to measure conflict-induced field damage in Ukraine 2022-24 for about 10,000 village councils (VCs). Compared to media-based indicators (ACLED), these suggest higher conflict incidence in less densely populated VCs, consistent with official data. Use of annual crop maps for 2019-24 to estimate a difference in differences (DID) model at VC level suggests conflict significantly and persistently reduced cropped area in directly affected and neighboring VCs. Predicted conflict effects are three times larger and differently distributed for image as compared to media-based indicators, suggesting remotely sensed conflict measures may usefully complement media-based ones, especially in rural areas.

我们使用遥感数据来测量乌克兰2022-24年约10,000个村委会（vc）的冲突引起的现场损害。与基于媒体的指标（ACLED）相比，这些指标表明，在人口密度较低的风险投资中，冲突发生率较高，与官方数据一致。使用2019-24年的年度作物图来估计VC水平的差异差异（DID）模型表明，在直接受影响的VC和邻近的VC中，冲突显著且持续地减少了作物面积。与基于媒体的指标相比，图像预测的冲突影响是基于媒体的指标的三倍，分布也不同，这表明遥感冲突措施可以有效地补充基于媒体的措施，特别是在农村地区。

引用次数: 0

Does social identity constrain rural entrepreneurship? Evidence on the role of financial inclusion 社会身份是否制约了农村企业家精神？关于普惠金融作用的证据

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103669

Sandhya Garg , Samarth Gupta , Sushanta Mallick

This paper examines whether improved financial access can mitigate the constraints imposed by social identity on entrepreneurship among under-privileged caste groups in India. Using a novel dataset on Indian villages and their proximity to bank branches, we find that closer access to a bank branch significantly enhances entrepreneurial activity among Scheduled Castes (SCs) in non-agricultural sectors, especially in those sectors that are traditionally dominated by upper-caste groups. These findings are more pronounced in villages where the improvement in proximity was plausibly exogenous, resulting from the RBI's Bank Branch Expansion Policy of 2005. For Scheduled Tribes (STs), however, financial access is associated with a gain in the size of hired employment within enterprises. Exploring several mechanisms, we find that these effects are primarily driven by credit uptake. Overall, our findings highlight the potential of financial inclusion in breaking rigid social norms around the entrenched caste-based occupational segregation and promoting more equitable economic participation in India.

本文考察了改善金融渠道是否可以减轻社会身份对印度弱势种姓群体创业的限制。利用印度村庄及其靠近银行分支机构的新数据集，我们发现，靠近银行分支机构显著提高了非农业部门中表列种姓（SCs）的创业活动，特别是在那些传统上由上层种姓群体主导的部门。这些发现在村庄中更为明显，在那里，距离的改善似乎是外生的，这是印度央行2005年银行分行扩张政策的结果。然而，对于排期部落（STs）来说，获得资金与企业内雇佣人数的增加有关。通过对几个机制的探索，我们发现这些影响主要是由信贷吸收驱动的。总体而言，我们的研究结果强调了普惠金融在打破围绕根深蒂固的基于种姓的职业隔离的严格社会规范和促进印度更公平的经济参与方面的潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Bittersweet: Grandparenting and elderly mental health in the two-child policy era 苦乐参半：二孩时代的祖父母与老年人心理健康

IF 4.6 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Development Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103670

Dapeng Chen , Shin-Yi Chou , Bingjin Xue

We exploit China's universal two-child policy and variations in adult children's birth cohort to examine the causal impact of the family-planning policy on grandparenting and elderly mental well-being. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the policy significantly increased the number of grandchildren and intensified grandparental involvement—raising informal caregiving, weekly hours spent, co-residence, and contact with adult children. These changes were accompanied by a 6.8 % increase in CESD-10 depression scores and 8.9 %–14.3 % increase in underlying symptoms such as restless sleep, irritability, difficulty concentrating, and hopelessness. We find no significant changes in income, consumption, or healthcare use, suggesting that the mental health effects are most plausibly driven by increased caregiving demands. The impacts are most pronounced among urban and paternal grandparents, especially paternal grandmothers. Despite these declines, we find no evidence of elevated risk of severe clinical depression.

我们利用中国的全面二孩政策和成年子女出生队列的变化来研究计划生育政策对祖父母和老年人心理健康的因果影响。使用差异中的差异设计，我们发现该政策显著增加了孙子孙女的数量，并加强了祖父母的参与——提高了非正式照顾、每周花费的时间、共同居住以及与成年子女的接触。这些变化伴随着csd -10抑郁评分增加6.8%和潜在症状增加8.9% - 14.3%，如睡眠不安、易怒、注意力难以集中和绝望。我们发现在收入、消费或医疗保健使用方面没有显著的变化，这表明心理健康的影响最有可能是由增加的护理需求驱动的。这种影响在城市和祖父母中最为明显，尤其是祖母。尽管这些下降，我们没有发现严重临床抑郁症风险增加的证据。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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