Journal of Public Economics最新文献

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The undoing of economic sanctions: Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine conflict 经济制裁的解除：来自俄乌冲突的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105470

Raymond Fisman , Giovanna Marcolongo , Meng Wu

We examine the effects of Ukraine’s economic blockade of the anthracite-rich Donbas region, to demonstrate how trade sanctions’ efficacy can be undermined by trade through non-participatory nations. We document that after the blockade was imposed in March 2017, Russia reported a sharp increase in anthracite imports from Ukraine, while Ukraine reported no exports to Russia at all. We interpret this gap in “mirror statistics” as reflecting a shift in Donbas trade through Russia. Concurrently, Ukraine’s anthracite imports from Russia increased sharply (from near-zero), indicating that some of the increased supply of anthracite in Russia was exported back to Ukraine. We provide suggestive evidence that Russian traders benefited from monopsony rents, buying low-priced anthracite from Donbas while Russia sold anthracite to Ukraine at prices comparable to other export markets. Overall, our findings highlight some of the economic and geographic features that may raise the cost and limit the efficacy of sanctions.

我们研究了乌克兰对富含无烟煤的顿巴斯地区进行经济封锁的影响，以证明贸易制裁的效力如何被非参与国的贸易所破坏。我们的文件显示，2017年3月实施封锁后，俄罗斯报告从乌克兰进口无烟煤急剧增加，而乌克兰报告根本没有向俄罗斯出口无烟煤。我们将“镜像统计”中的这一差距解释为反映了顿巴斯通过俄罗斯进行贸易的转变。与此同时，乌克兰从俄罗斯进口的无烟煤急剧增加（从接近于零），这表明俄罗斯增加的无烟煤供应中有一部分被出口回乌克兰。我们提供的证据表明，俄罗斯贸易商受益于垄断租金，从顿巴斯购买低价无烟煤，而俄罗斯以与其他出口市场相当的价格向乌克兰出售无烟煤。总的来说，我们的研究结果突出了一些经济和地理特征，这些特征可能会提高制裁的成本并限制制裁的效力。

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Corruption stereotype and the unintended consequences of an anti-corruption campaign: evidence from the real estate sector in China 腐败刻板印象和反腐运动的意外后果：来自中国房地产行业的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105474

Hanming Fang , Rongjie Zhang

In an anti-corruption campaign, government officials have strong incentives to avoid taking actions that may trigger disciplinary investigations. In China’s land sales market, we find that the fraction of residential land parcels purchased by State-Owned-Enterprises (SOE) developers significantly increased after the anti-corruption campaign compared to those purchased by private developers. This result is partly driven by the following mechanism: Because selling land to private developers carries a higher corruption stereotype, local officials, particularly the relatively “clean” ones, become more reluctant to sell land to private developers for the purpose of self-preservation. Thus China’s anti-corruption campaign may have unintentionally contributed to the resurgence of the SOEs. Local officials’ corruption stereotype avoidance in an anti-corruption campaign has broad implications.

在反腐运动中，政府官员有强烈的动机避免采取可能引发纪律调查的行动。在中国的土地销售市场中，我们发现，与私人开发商购买的住宅地块相比，国有企业（SOE）开发商购买的住宅地块的比例在反腐运动后显着增加。这一结果部分是由以下机制驱动的：由于将土地出售给私人开发商带有更高的腐败印象，地方官员，特别是相对“干净”的官员，出于自我保护的目的，更不愿意将土地出售给私人开发商。因此，中国的反腐运动可能无意中助长了国有企业的复苏。地方官员在反腐运动中避免腐败刻板印象具有广泛的意义。

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Prices vs quantities with risk aversion 风险规避下的价格vs数量

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105463

Edward E. Schlee

Weitzman (1974) asks whether we should regulate a good by fixing quantity or by fixing price when cost and benefit are uncertain. His welfare criterion—expected aggregate surplus—tacitly imposes two strong quasilinearity assumptions on a consumer’s preferences: neutrality with respect to income risk; and absence of income effects on the valuation of the good. Both are matters of first-order importance for the evaluation of allocations under uncertainty. Here I ask how risk aversion affects the choice between the two when the regulated good is a public good. I give conditions for welfare—in the form of the sum of certainty equivalents—to be higher for a fixed price; the conditions allow arbitrarily-high levels of risk aversion, even though consumers bear no uncertainty about quantity or income with a fixed quantity. The conclusion depends crucially on benefit uncertainty, present but irrelevant in Weitzman. An unintended consequence is a surprising new argument against quantity regulation: risk aversion.

Weitzman（1974）提出，在成本和收益都不确定的情况下，我们是应该通过固定数量还是固定价格来调节一种商品。他的福利标准——预期总盈余——默认地对消费者的偏好施加了两个强拟线性假设：对收入风险保持中立；收入的缺失对商品价值的影响。两者都是评价不确定情况下分配的头等重要问题。我想问的是，当受监管的商品是一种公共商品时，风险厌恶会如何影响两者之间的选择。我给出了福利——以确定性等价物总和的形式——在固定价格下更高的条件；这些条件允许任意高水平的风险厌恶，即使消费者对数量或固定数量的收入没有不确定性。结论主要取决于利益的不确定性，这在韦茨曼看来是存在的，但与之无关。一个意想不到的后果是一个令人惊讶的反对数量管制的新论点：风险厌恶。

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The value of private business in the United States 美国私营企业的价值

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105466

Richard Cole Campbell, Jacob A. Robbins

Private companies account for almost half of aggregate sales and profits of the US economy, but valuing them is difficult due to lack of public market data. This paper uses two databases of private business transactions to estimate valuation ratios and applies them to private business aggregates. We estimate aggregate private business wealth of $14.1 trillion in 2018, twice as large as measured in the Financial Accounts. Our estimates of partnership wealth are six times larger than Financial Accounts estimates, which value partnerships at book value with no adjustment from market based multiples.

私营企业占美国经济总销售额和利润的近一半，但由于缺乏公开市场数据，很难对它们进行估值。本文利用两个民营企业交易数据库估算估值比率，并将其应用于民营企业总量。我们估计，2018年私营企业财富总额为14.1万亿美元，是《金融账户》衡量的两倍。我们对合伙企业财富的估计是金融账户估计的六倍，后者对合伙企业的估值是账面价值，没有根据基于市场的倍数进行调整。

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Discrimination and assimilation: Evidence from anti-Chinese sentiments in the United States 歧视与同化：来自美国反华情绪的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105450

Gianandrea Lanzara , Sara Lazzaroni , Paolo Masella , Mara P. Squicciarini

This paper studies the interactions between members of a discriminated minority, members of the majority group, and political leaders. We construct a novel dataset of all tweets posted by “White American” and Chinese users located in the United States from January to August 2020. Using a variety of supervised and unsupervised text-analysis techniques, we show that anti-Chinese discrimination on Twitter significantly increased following (i) the COVID-19 outbreak, and (ii) Donald Trump’s tweet referring to COVID-19 as the “Chinese virus." We then study the reaction of the Chinese minority and find that, after Trump’s tweet, Chinese users were significantly more likely to (i) tweet assimilation-related content, and (ii) tweet criticism against the Chinese Communist Party. The rise in assimilation-related content is generally stronger for users who were more integrated before the shock.

本文研究了受歧视的少数群体成员、多数群体成员和政治领导人之间的相互作用。我们构建了一个新的数据集，其中包含2020年1月至8月在美国的“美国白人”和中国用户发布的所有推文。使用各种监督和非监督文本分析技术，我们发现推特上的反华歧视在(i) COVID-19爆发和（ii）唐纳德·特朗普将COVID-19称为“中国病毒”之后显著增加。然后，我们研究了中国少数民族的反应，发现在特朗普发推文后，中国用户明显更有可能(i)发布与同化相关的内容，（ii）发布对中国共产党的批评。同化相关内容的增加通常对那些在冲击前更融入的用户更强烈。

引用次数: 0

Old money: Campaign finance and gerontocracy in the United States 老钱：美国的竞选资金和老年政治

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105451

Adam Bonica , Jacob M. Grumbach

Politicians in the United States rank among the oldest globally. This study examines how money in politics contributes to age inequality in political representation. Using record-linkage to construct a novel data set combining the ages of voters, donors, and candidates, we find that the median dollar in US elections comes from a 66-year-old — significantly older than the median voter, candidate, or elected official. Results from within-district and within-donor analyses confirm that age proximity with candidates increases contributions on the extensive and intensive margins. Finally, we simulate candidate fundraising by age under a hypothetical campaign finance voucher policy.

美国的政治家是全球最老的政治家之一。这项研究考察了政治中的金钱如何导致政治代表中的年龄不平等。使用记录链接构建了一个结合选民、捐赠者和候选人年龄的新数据集，我们发现美国选举中的中位数美元来自66岁的人——比选民、候选人或当选官员的中位数年龄大得多。地区内和捐助者内部分析的结果证实，与候选人年龄接近会增加广泛和密集边际的捐款。最后，我们在假设的竞选资金券政策下，按年龄模拟候选人筹款。

引用次数: 0

VAT incidence in real VAT systems 实际增值税制度中的增值税发生率

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105447

Giacomo Brusco , Tejaswi Velayudhan

This paper studies the price impacts of Value Added Tax (VAT) in the presence of size-based exemptions, which are set relatively high in the firm-size distribution in developing contexts. In addition to the standard determinants of tax incidence, we show that pass-through of VAT to consumer prices will depend on the substitutability of registered and unregistered varieties of taxed goods, on pass-through at upstream stages, and on the extent of segregation between registered and unregistered supply chains. The exemption can also distort the quality of goods produced. We show that these mechanisms are empirically important in the context of a VAT in India, where those who consume at unregistered firms nevertheless bear some of the tax burden.

本文研究了在发展中国家企业规模分布较高的情况下，基于规模的增值税免税额对价格的影响。除了税收发生率的标准决定因素外，我们还表明，增值税对消费者价格的传递将取决于已注册和未注册的征税商品品种的可替代性、上游阶段的传递以及已注册和未注册供应链之间的隔离程度。这种豁免也会扭曲产品的质量。我们表明，在印度增值税的背景下，这些机制在经验上是重要的，在那里，那些在未注册公司消费的人仍然承担了一些税收负担。

引用次数: 0

Climate and migration in the United States 美国的气候和移民

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105446

Patrick Baylis , Prashant Bharadwaj , Jamie T. Mullins , Nick Obradovich

We study whether households engage in climate-related migration in the United States, a country where most of the population does not regularly experience natural disasters or work in climate-exposed industries. With comprehensive, long-run data from both the Census and tax filings, we document that warm temperatures induce net out-migration, while cooler temperatures do not. By comparing estimates from models using different lengths of temporal variation, we further show that migration is a medium-run response to high temperatures: decadal and longer shifts in weather have larger annualized impacts than year-over-year changes. Finally, comparisons across county types suggest amenity value is an important mechanism behind climate-related migration in the United States.

我们研究了美国家庭是否从事与气候有关的移民，在这个国家，大多数人口并不经常经历自然灾害或在气候暴露行业工作。根据来自人口普查和税务申报的全面、长期数据，我们证明，温暖的气温会导致净外迁，而较冷的气温则不会。通过比较使用不同时间变化长度的模式的估计，我们进一步表明，迁徙是对高温的中期响应：年代际和更长时间的天气变化比年变化具有更大的年化影响。最后，跨县类型的比较表明，舒适价值是美国气候相关移民背后的重要机制。

引用次数: 0

Wealth tax enforcement in Sweden: Filing requirements and pre-populated returns 瑞典的财富税执行：申报要求和预填申报表

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105440

Emmanuel Saez , David Seim

This paper shows that two features of wealth tax administration in Sweden – (1) filing requirements and (2) pre-populated returns–have a large impact on compliance even in an environment with highly-developed third-party reporting through information returns. Up to 1993, all taxpayers had to fill in wealth information when filing the (joint) income and wealth tax return. In 1994–1996, only those with net wealth above the exemption threshold (approximately the top 10 %) needed to fill in wealth information. This leads to a very large reduction of about half of the number of taxpayers slightly above the wealth tax exemption threshold, and a reduction of about 20 % in the total number of wealth taxpayers above the threshold. Starting in 1997, Sweden began pre-populating wealth information on tax returns for taxpayers with third-party-reported net wealth above the exemption threshold. Symmetrically, this immediately doubles the number of taxpayers slightly above the threshold and increases the number of all wealth taxpayers by almost 20 %. The introduction of information returns for financial wealth in 1986 had a comparatively small impact on wealth reporting.

本文表明，瑞典财富税管理的两个特点——(1)申报要求和(2)预先填写的申报——即使在通过信息申报进行第三方报告的高度发达的环境中，也对合规性产生了很大影响。截至1993年，所有纳税人在提交（联合）所得税和财富税申报表时都必须填写财富信息。1994-1996年，只有净资产超过免税门槛的人才需要填写财富信息（大约前10名 %）。这导致略高于财富税豁免门槛的纳税人数量大幅减少约一半，超过门槛的财富纳税人总数减少约20% %。从1997年开始，瑞典开始在纳税人的纳税申报单上预先填写财富信息，这些纳税人的净财富由第三方报告，高于免税门槛。对称地，这立即使略高于阈值的纳税人数量翻了一番，并使所有财富纳税人的数量增加了近20% %。1986年引入的金融财富信息回报对财富报告的影响相对较小。

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引用次数: 0

Vote and trade: An efficient mechanism for common-pool resource management with stock externalities 投票与交易：具有存量外部性的公共资源管理的有效机制

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105448

Hao Zhao , David Porter

The efficiency of inter-temporal resource allocation in a rights-based common-pool resource management system can be compromised by a stock externality. This occurs when one user’s extraction depletes the resource stock and then raises future harvesting costs for all users. This paper introduces a vote-and-trade (VAT) mechanism, an enhancement to standard cap-and-trade (CAT), to correct this inefficiency. VAT operates in two stages: first, resource users vote to set a binding, period-specific extraction cap; second, they trade the resulting rights in a within-period market. Our theoretical model demonstrates that while standard CAT is dynamically inefficient, VAT can achieve the social optimum under mild conditions by using voting to aggregate agents’ private information and collectively choose the optimal inter-temporal extraction path. Laboratory experiments confirm this prediction, showing that VAT substantially outperforms CAT in aggregate economic efficiency.

在基于权利的公共资源池管理系统中，资源的跨期配置效率会受到存量外部性的影响。当一个用户的提取耗尽了资源储备，然后增加了所有用户未来的收获成本时，就会发生这种情况。本文引入了一种投票与交易（VAT）机制，这是对标准限额与交易（CAT）的改进，以纠正这种低效率。增值税分两个阶段运行：首先，资源使用者投票设定有约束力的、特定时期的提取上限；其次，他们在期限内市场交易由此产生的权利。我们的理论模型表明，标准CAT是动态低效的，而增值税可以在温和条件下通过投票来聚合代理的私有信息并集体选择最优跨期提取路径，从而实现社会最优。实验室实验证实了这一预测，表明增值税在总经济效率上大大优于增值税。

引用次数: 0

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