Journal of Public Economics最新文献

The temporary 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit (CTC) was intended to reduce child poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic. The expansion’s elimination of an existing phase-in with earnings, however, potentially disincentivized labor supply, raising concerns that it would reduce parent employment. We empirically test for employment effects using difference-in-differences analyses with Current Population Survey data. Across many specifications and multiple sub-groups, we find very small, inconsistently signed, statistically insignificant impacts of the 2021 CTC on parental labor force participation and employment.

The global increase in refugee flows and anti-migrant politics has made it increasingly urgent to understand when and how migration translates into anti-migrant sentiment. We study the mass exodus of Venezuelans across Latin America, which coincided with an unprecedented worsening in migrant sentiment in the countries that received the most Venezuelans. However, we find no evidence that this decrease occurred in the regions within-country that received the most migrants. We do this using multiple migrant sentiment outcomes including survey measures and social media posts, multiple levels of geographic variation across seven Latin American countries, and an instrumental variable strategy. We find little evidence for heterogeneity along a range of characteristics related to labor market competition, public good scarcity, or crime. The results are consistent with anti-migrant sentiment being a national-level phenomenon, divorced from local experiences with migrants.

This paper studies how firms respond to book income alternative minimum taxes (AMTs) by examining the AMT book income adjustment in 1987. Using Compustat data and an event study approach, I find no evidence that firms avoid the tax, and no evidence of significant real production or investment responses. Firm tax base responses imply an elasticity of book income of $-0.03$ [$-0.63$,$0.56$], smaller than previous estimates because I correct for mean reversion. The null results indicate that firms face strong, non-tax incentives to report high book incomes.

How the labor force participation of mothers of young children responds to unconditioned cash support remains an open question in policy debates. Using data from Baby’s First Years, a large-scale randomized controlled study, we generate new estimates of the impact of an unconditional monthly cash transfer on maternal employment behavior through a child’s first four years of life. We find no overall statistically detectable differences in whether mothers participated in the paid workforce or on total household earnings. Receipt of the cash transfer appears to have reduced hours of maternal work during the height of the pandemic in 2020–21.

Evaluations of economic interventions usually focus on one target behavior. This study extends the evaluation scope to multiple untargeted behaviors. We evaluate a hot water saving intervention in a natural field experiment. Despite an exclusive focus on hot water, the intervention changes multiple behaviors. Notably, we find a 5.6 percent reduction in room heating energy consumption that persists one year after the intervention. We show that the room heating spillover has important welfare implications.

Previous work suggests that research and development (R&D) tax credits increase R&D expenditure. We exploit the staggered adoption of state-level R&D tax credits in the United States to examine their effect on innovation itself. In particular, we consider ten commonly-studied patent characteristics that have received little or no attention in the extant literature on R&D incentives. Our empirical approach suggests that R&D tax credits reduce the user cost of R&D and increase R&D expenditure, but we find no aggregate evidence that such credits increase patenting in credit-adopting states. Nor do credits increase the scientific quality of patents, as captured by patent citations. On the other hand, R&D tax credits increase patent novelty and we see large and significant increases in the market value of patents in credit-adopting states. All of our aggregate results are driven by states with larger effective credits and by larger firms, because such firms produce the vast majority of patents. These results have important implications for R&D public policy.

Consumers are sensitive to medical prices when consuming care, but delays in price information may distort moral hazard. We study how medical bills affect household spillover spending following utilization of shoppable services, leveraging variation in insurer claim processing times. Households increase spending by 22% after a scheduled service, but then reduce spending by 11% after the bill arrives. Observed bill effects are consistent with resolving price uncertainty; bill effects are strongest when pricing information is particularly salient. A model of demand for healthcare with delayed pricing information suggests households misperceive pricing signals prior to bills, and that correcting these perceptions reduce average (median) spending by 16% (7%) annually.

The reduction of carbon emissions will require a rapid phasing out of coal and the displacement of millions of coal miners. How much could this energy transition cost mining workers? We use the dramatic collapse of the UK coal industry to estimate the long-term impact on displaced miners. We find evidence of substantial losses: hourly wages fell by 40% and earnings fell by 80% to 90% one year after job loss. These losses are persistent and remain significantly depressed fifteen years later, amounting to present discounted value earnings losses of between four and six times the miners pre-displacement earnings.

We study the impact of immigrant legalization on fiscal transfers from state to local governments in the United States, exploiting variation in legal status from the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). State governments allocate more resources to IRCA counties, an allocation that is responsive to the electoral incentives of the governor. Importantly, the effect emerges prior to the enfranchisement of the IRCA migrants and we argue it is driven by the IRCA’s capacity to politically empower already legal Hispanic migrants in mixed legal status communities. The IRCA increases turnout in large Hispanic communities as well as Hispanic political engagement, without detectably triggering anti-migrant sentiment.

The ability of the state to collect tax revenue is a crucial indicator in the process of economic development, yet the functioning of tax compliance in low-capacity countries remains poorly understood. Using a randomized evaluation, I study a simple text message reminder scheme implemented by the Uganda Revenue Authority, which increases tax compliance by 7%. This average effect masks substantial treatment effect heterogeneity by an index of the presence of public services, measured via a granular, nationwide dataset on government service provision. The finding that the treatment was most effective where the state is least present shows how digital technology can extend beyond the brick-and-mortar presence of the government, expanding the reach of the state.