Journal of Public Economics最新文献

Previous work suggests that research and development (R&D) tax credits increase R&D expenditure. We exploit the staggered adoption of state-level R&D tax credits in the United States to examine their effect on innovation itself. In particular, we consider ten commonly-studied patent characteristics that have received little or no attention in the extant literature on R&D incentives. Our empirical approach suggests that R&D tax credits reduce the user cost of R&D and increase R&D expenditure, but we find no aggregate evidence that such credits increase patenting in credit-adopting states. Nor do credits increase the scientific quality of patents, as captured by patent citations. On the other hand, R&D tax credits increase patent novelty and we see large and significant increases in the market value of patents in credit-adopting states. All of our aggregate results are driven by states with larger effective credits and by larger firms, because such firms produce the vast majority of patents. These results have important implications for R&D public policy.

Consumers are sensitive to medical prices when consuming care, but delays in price information may distort moral hazard. We study how medical bills affect household spillover spending following utilization of shoppable services, leveraging variation in insurer claim processing times. Households increase spending by 22% after a scheduled service, but then reduce spending by 11% after the bill arrives. Observed bill effects are consistent with resolving price uncertainty; bill effects are strongest when pricing information is particularly salient. A model of demand for healthcare with delayed pricing information suggests households misperceive pricing signals prior to bills, and that correcting these perceptions reduce average (median) spending by 16% (7%) annually.

The reduction of carbon emissions will require a rapid phasing out of coal and the displacement of millions of coal miners. How much could this energy transition cost mining workers? We use the dramatic collapse of the UK coal industry to estimate the long-term impact on displaced miners. We find evidence of substantial losses: hourly wages fell by 40% and earnings fell by 80% to 90% one year after job loss. These losses are persistent and remain significantly depressed fifteen years later, amounting to present discounted value earnings losses of between four and six times the miners pre-displacement earnings.

We study the impact of immigrant legalization on fiscal transfers from state to local governments in the United States, exploiting variation in legal status from the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). State governments allocate more resources to IRCA counties, an allocation that is responsive to the electoral incentives of the governor. Importantly, the effect emerges prior to the enfranchisement of the IRCA migrants and we argue it is driven by the IRCA’s capacity to politically empower already legal Hispanic migrants in mixed legal status communities. The IRCA increases turnout in large Hispanic communities as well as Hispanic political engagement, without detectably triggering anti-migrant sentiment.

The ability of the state to collect tax revenue is a crucial indicator in the process of economic development, yet the functioning of tax compliance in low-capacity countries remains poorly understood. Using a randomized evaluation, I study a simple text message reminder scheme implemented by the Uganda Revenue Authority, which increases tax compliance by 7%. This average effect masks substantial treatment effect heterogeneity by an index of the presence of public services, measured via a granular, nationwide dataset on government service provision. The finding that the treatment was most effective where the state is least present shows how digital technology can extend beyond the brick-and-mortar presence of the government, expanding the reach of the state.

This paper explores the effects of a federal law that obligates previously unregulated municipalities in Germany to set a minimum tax rate on firms’ taxable profits. In particular, we examine the tax-policy response of municipalities that compete locally with “tax-haven municipalities”, i.e.municipalities that originally have set lower and, in some cases, even zero tax rates. The analysis distinguishes treated and not-treated municipalities based on their distance to a tax-haven. Our results show that the majority of municipalities do not change their tax policy. Apart from the tax-havens, only high-tax municipalities show a response – they reduce the business tax rate without experiencing a decline in tax revenues.

This paper analyzes the federal urban renewal and slum clearance program. This program was one of the largest and most controversial policies used to rehabilitate neighborhoods in the United States. Using a newly constructed dataset, I examine the characteristics of neighborhoods cleared for redevelopment and the effect that such projects had on neighborhoods over time. I show that conditional on experiencing urban blight, Black neighborhoods were twice as likely as white neighborhoods to be targeted for clearance. Redevelopment led to a decline in housing density, population density, and the share of Black residents while simultaneously increasing median rents and incomes.

A strong consensus posits that the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has had sizable effects on extensive margin labor supply, especially for single mothers. This paper reappraises the difference-in-differences and event study approaches that underpin much of this consensus. The paper investigates every EITC reform at the state and federal level since the inception of the policy. All reforms are analyzed in an event study framework and a comprehensive analysis of model uncertainty is presented. Apart from the federal 1993 reform, EITC expansions are not associated with any clear and robust effects on employment. Treatment impact estimates from about 500 event studies are symmetrically distributed around zero. Specifications with large elasticities are outliers in the distribution. The 1993 reform, on the other hand, is associated with large employment increases for single mothers. Based on a number of different analyses, the paper shows that these increases align more closely with confounding effects from welfare reform and the macroeconomy than with the EITC. Overall, difference-in-differences and event study analyses of EITC reforms are fragile to specification choices and do not support robustly large effects.

Recent research has found distinct electoral cycles in public spending, but the evidence for cycles in taxation is scarce, reflecting a lack of cross-nationally comparable measures of tax reforms. We use qualitative data provided by the IMF (Amaglobeli et al., 2018) to compile comprehensive tax reform indicators that cover the entire tax system for 22 countries between 1960–2014, including reforms of tax rates and bases for six tax types. Relating tax reforms to the timing of elections, we find results that are consistent with politicians postponing tax reforms to periods after elections. The results are most pronounced for tax increases, are stronger for tax rates than bases, and are driven by particularly salient tax types (personal income taxes and the VAT).

Due to population aging, the number of people needing long-term care is growing, and an increasing number of people are receiving this care at home, rather than in nursing homes. This trend has been driven in part by Medicaid, which has significantly increased public financing of formal home care over the past few decades. Using the 2000–2016 Health and Retirement Study and a difference-in-difference and triple-difference design, I investigate the effects of a Medicaid policy adopted in over half of states that increased formal home care utilization among low-income older adults by more than 50%. I show that the policy mainly replaces informal care, particularly from spouses and daughters. For daughters, there is an accompanying increase in labor supply: for approximately every three daughters whose parent receives formal home care due to the policy, one additional daughter works full-time.