Journal of Public Economics最新文献

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Does SNAP participation increase bulk purchases? SNAP参与会增加大宗采购吗？

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105442

Hannah Wich , Katherine Harris-Lagoudakis

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) issues monthly lump-sum payments. One potential benefit of SNAP payments is that they could ease liquidity constraints for participating households. Using novel retailer panel data, this is the first study to investigate the effect of SNAP on bulk purchasing behavior using within-household variation. To estimate a causal relationship between SNAP and bulk purchases, we use the timing of program re-certification as a source of exogenous variation in the decision to participate in SNAP. We find that participating in SNAP increases the expenditure share of bulk purchases for all groceries by six percentage points. Analyses aiming to disentangle whether increased bulk spending among SNAP households reflects an “income effect” or a “liquidity effect” point to the former, with spending patterns indicating “splurge behavior” rather than efforts to minimize prices.

补充营养援助计划（SNAP）每月发放一次性付款。SNAP支付的一个潜在好处是，它们可以缓解参与家庭的流动性限制。使用新颖的零售商面板数据，这是第一次研究SNAP对家庭内部差异的大宗购买行为的影响。为了估计SNAP与大宗采购之间的因果关系，我们使用计划重新认证的时间作为参与SNAP决策的外生变化的来源。我们发现，参与SNAP使所有杂货的大宗采购支出份额增加了6个百分点。旨在弄清SNAP家庭大宗支出增加反映的是“收入效应”还是“流动性效应”的分析指向前者，支出模式表明的是“挥霍行为”，而不是努力将价格降至最低。

引用次数: 0

Frictions in recovering unclaimed property: Evidence from a large-scale natural field experiment 回收无人认领财产的摩擦：来自大规模自然田野实验的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105449

Alejandro Zentner , Justin Holz

Governments hold billions of dollars in assets abandoned or forgotten by their owners. We conducted a large-scale natural field experiment to understand the role of filing frictions preventing claims of this property. Overall, increasing awareness and providing instructions increased claims substantially. We also study unequal access. In the control group, Hispanic property owners are 64 % less likely to claim their property than White owners, leading to unequal access to one’s own property. Hispanic subjects are also less responsive to aid. We discuss policy implications and how the setting we introduce can be used to conduct natural field experiments without the biases and restrictions that may arise when conducting experiments with a partner organization.

政府持有数十亿美元被其所有者抛弃或遗忘的资产。我们进行了大规模的自然现场实验，以了解提交摩擦的作用，防止索赔这一属性。总的来说，提高意识和提供指导大大增加了索赔。我们也研究了不平等的机会。在对照组中，西班牙裔业主比白人业主认领财产的可能性低64% %，这导致了对自己财产的不平等获取。西班牙裔受试者对援助的反应也较差。我们讨论了政策含义，以及我们引入的环境如何用于进行自然现场实验，而不会出现与合作组织进行实验时可能出现的偏见和限制。

引用次数: 0

The undoing of economic sanctions: Evidence from the Russia–Ukraine conflict 经济制裁的解除：来自俄乌冲突的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105470

Raymond Fisman , Giovanna Marcolongo , Meng Wu

We examine the effects of Ukraine’s economic blockade of the anthracite-rich Donbas region, to demonstrate how trade sanctions’ efficacy can be undermined by trade through non-participatory nations. We document that after the blockade was imposed in March 2017, Russia reported a sharp increase in anthracite imports from Ukraine, while Ukraine reported no exports to Russia at all. We interpret this gap in “mirror statistics” as reflecting a shift in Donbas trade through Russia. Concurrently, Ukraine’s anthracite imports from Russia increased sharply (from near-zero), indicating that some of the increased supply of anthracite in Russia was exported back to Ukraine. We provide suggestive evidence that Russian traders benefited from monopsony rents, buying low-priced anthracite from Donbas while Russia sold anthracite to Ukraine at prices comparable to other export markets. Overall, our findings highlight some of the economic and geographic features that may raise the cost and limit the efficacy of sanctions.

我们研究了乌克兰对富含无烟煤的顿巴斯地区进行经济封锁的影响，以证明贸易制裁的效力如何被非参与国的贸易所破坏。我们的文件显示，2017年3月实施封锁后，俄罗斯报告从乌克兰进口无烟煤急剧增加，而乌克兰报告根本没有向俄罗斯出口无烟煤。我们将“镜像统计”中的这一差距解释为反映了顿巴斯通过俄罗斯进行贸易的转变。与此同时，乌克兰从俄罗斯进口的无烟煤急剧增加（从接近于零），这表明俄罗斯增加的无烟煤供应中有一部分被出口回乌克兰。我们提供的证据表明，俄罗斯贸易商受益于垄断租金，从顿巴斯购买低价无烟煤，而俄罗斯以与其他出口市场相当的价格向乌克兰出售无烟煤。总的来说，我们的研究结果突出了一些经济和地理特征，这些特征可能会提高制裁的成本并限制制裁的效力。

引用次数: 0

Corruption stereotype and the unintended consequences of an anti-corruption campaign: evidence from the real estate sector in China 腐败刻板印象和反腐运动的意外后果：来自中国房地产行业的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105474

Hanming Fang , Rongjie Zhang

In an anti-corruption campaign, government officials have strong incentives to avoid taking actions that may trigger disciplinary investigations. In China’s land sales market, we find that the fraction of residential land parcels purchased by State-Owned-Enterprises (SOE) developers significantly increased after the anti-corruption campaign compared to those purchased by private developers. This result is partly driven by the following mechanism: Because selling land to private developers carries a higher corruption stereotype, local officials, particularly the relatively “clean” ones, become more reluctant to sell land to private developers for the purpose of self-preservation. Thus China’s anti-corruption campaign may have unintentionally contributed to the resurgence of the SOEs. Local officials’ corruption stereotype avoidance in an anti-corruption campaign has broad implications.

在反腐运动中，政府官员有强烈的动机避免采取可能引发纪律调查的行动。在中国的土地销售市场中，我们发现，与私人开发商购买的住宅地块相比，国有企业（SOE）开发商购买的住宅地块的比例在反腐运动后显着增加。这一结果部分是由以下机制驱动的：由于将土地出售给私人开发商带有更高的腐败印象，地方官员，特别是相对“干净”的官员，出于自我保护的目的，更不愿意将土地出售给私人开发商。因此，中国的反腐运动可能无意中助长了国有企业的复苏。地方官员在反腐运动中避免腐败刻板印象具有广泛的意义。

引用次数: 0

Prices vs quantities with risk aversion 风险规避下的价格vs数量

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105463

Edward E. Schlee

Weitzman (1974) asks whether we should regulate a good by fixing quantity or by fixing price when cost and benefit are uncertain. His welfare criterion—expected aggregate surplus—tacitly imposes two strong quasilinearity assumptions on a consumer’s preferences: neutrality with respect to income risk; and absence of income effects on the valuation of the good. Both are matters of first-order importance for the evaluation of allocations under uncertainty. Here I ask how risk aversion affects the choice between the two when the regulated good is a public good. I give conditions for welfare—in the form of the sum of certainty equivalents—to be higher for a fixed price; the conditions allow arbitrarily-high levels of risk aversion, even though consumers bear no uncertainty about quantity or income with a fixed quantity. The conclusion depends crucially on benefit uncertainty, present but irrelevant in Weitzman. An unintended consequence is a surprising new argument against quantity regulation: risk aversion.

Weitzman（1974）提出，在成本和收益都不确定的情况下，我们是应该通过固定数量还是固定价格来调节一种商品。他的福利标准——预期总盈余——默认地对消费者的偏好施加了两个强拟线性假设：对收入风险保持中立；收入的缺失对商品价值的影响。两者都是评价不确定情况下分配的头等重要问题。我想问的是，当受监管的商品是一种公共商品时，风险厌恶会如何影响两者之间的选择。我给出了福利——以确定性等价物总和的形式——在固定价格下更高的条件；这些条件允许任意高水平的风险厌恶，即使消费者对数量或固定数量的收入没有不确定性。结论主要取决于利益的不确定性，这在韦茨曼看来是存在的，但与之无关。一个意想不到的后果是一个令人惊讶的反对数量管制的新论点：风险厌恶。

引用次数: 0

The value of private business in the United States 美国私营企业的价值

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105466

Richard Cole Campbell, Jacob A. Robbins

Private companies account for almost half of aggregate sales and profits of the US economy, but valuing them is difficult due to lack of public market data. This paper uses two databases of private business transactions to estimate valuation ratios and applies them to private business aggregates. We estimate aggregate private business wealth of $14.1 trillion in 2018, twice as large as measured in the Financial Accounts. Our estimates of partnership wealth are six times larger than Financial Accounts estimates, which value partnerships at book value with no adjustment from market based multiples.

私营企业占美国经济总销售额和利润的近一半，但由于缺乏公开市场数据，很难对它们进行估值。本文利用两个民营企业交易数据库估算估值比率，并将其应用于民营企业总量。我们估计，2018年私营企业财富总额为14.1万亿美元，是《金融账户》衡量的两倍。我们对合伙企业财富的估计是金融账户估计的六倍，后者对合伙企业的估值是账面价值，没有根据基于市场的倍数进行调整。

引用次数: 0

Discrimination and assimilation: Evidence from anti-Chinese sentiments in the United States 歧视与同化：来自美国反华情绪的证据

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105450

Gianandrea Lanzara , Sara Lazzaroni , Paolo Masella , Mara P. Squicciarini

This paper studies the interactions between members of a discriminated minority, members of the majority group, and political leaders. We construct a novel dataset of all tweets posted by “White American” and Chinese users located in the United States from January to August 2020. Using a variety of supervised and unsupervised text-analysis techniques, we show that anti-Chinese discrimination on Twitter significantly increased following (i) the COVID-19 outbreak, and (ii) Donald Trump’s tweet referring to COVID-19 as the “Chinese virus." We then study the reaction of the Chinese minority and find that, after Trump’s tweet, Chinese users were significantly more likely to (i) tweet assimilation-related content, and (ii) tweet criticism against the Chinese Communist Party. The rise in assimilation-related content is generally stronger for users who were more integrated before the shock.

本文研究了受歧视的少数群体成员、多数群体成员和政治领导人之间的相互作用。我们构建了一个新的数据集，其中包含2020年1月至8月在美国的“美国白人”和中国用户发布的所有推文。使用各种监督和非监督文本分析技术，我们发现推特上的反华歧视在(i) COVID-19爆发和（ii）唐纳德·特朗普将COVID-19称为“中国病毒”之后显著增加。然后，我们研究了中国少数民族的反应，发现在特朗普发推文后，中国用户明显更有可能(i)发布与同化相关的内容，（ii）发布对中国共产党的批评。同化相关内容的增加通常对那些在冲击前更融入的用户更强烈。

引用次数: 0

Old money: Campaign finance and gerontocracy in the United States 老钱：美国的竞选资金和老年政治

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105451

Adam Bonica , Jacob M. Grumbach

Politicians in the United States rank among the oldest globally. This study examines how money in politics contributes to age inequality in political representation. Using record-linkage to construct a novel data set combining the ages of voters, donors, and candidates, we find that the median dollar in US elections comes from a 66-year-old — significantly older than the median voter, candidate, or elected official. Results from within-district and within-donor analyses confirm that age proximity with candidates increases contributions on the extensive and intensive margins. Finally, we simulate candidate fundraising by age under a hypothetical campaign finance voucher policy.

美国的政治家是全球最老的政治家之一。这项研究考察了政治中的金钱如何导致政治代表中的年龄不平等。使用记录链接构建了一个结合选民、捐赠者和候选人年龄的新数据集，我们发现美国选举中的中位数美元来自66岁的人——比选民、候选人或当选官员的中位数年龄大得多。地区内和捐助者内部分析的结果证实，与候选人年龄接近会增加广泛和密集边际的捐款。最后，我们在假设的竞选资金券政策下，按年龄模拟候选人筹款。

引用次数: 0

VAT incidence in real VAT systems 实际增值税制度中的增值税发生率

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105447

Giacomo Brusco , Tejaswi Velayudhan

This paper studies the price impacts of Value Added Tax (VAT) in the presence of size-based exemptions, which are set relatively high in the firm-size distribution in developing contexts. In addition to the standard determinants of tax incidence, we show that pass-through of VAT to consumer prices will depend on the substitutability of registered and unregistered varieties of taxed goods, on pass-through at upstream stages, and on the extent of segregation between registered and unregistered supply chains. The exemption can also distort the quality of goods produced. We show that these mechanisms are empirically important in the context of a VAT in India, where those who consume at unregistered firms nevertheless bear some of the tax burden.

本文研究了在发展中国家企业规模分布较高的情况下，基于规模的增值税免税额对价格的影响。除了税收发生率的标准决定因素外，我们还表明，增值税对消费者价格的传递将取决于已注册和未注册的征税商品品种的可替代性、上游阶段的传递以及已注册和未注册供应链之间的隔离程度。这种豁免也会扭曲产品的质量。我们表明，在印度增值税的背景下，这些机制在经验上是重要的，在那里，那些在未注册公司消费的人仍然承担了一些税收负担。

引用次数: 0

Climate and migration in the United States 美国的气候和移民

IF 3.4 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of Public Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105446

Patrick Baylis , Prashant Bharadwaj , Jamie T. Mullins , Nick Obradovich

We study whether households engage in climate-related migration in the United States, a country where most of the population does not regularly experience natural disasters or work in climate-exposed industries. With comprehensive, long-run data from both the Census and tax filings, we document that warm temperatures induce net out-migration, while cooler temperatures do not. By comparing estimates from models using different lengths of temporal variation, we further show that migration is a medium-run response to high temperatures: decadal and longer shifts in weather have larger annualized impacts than year-over-year changes. Finally, comparisons across county types suggest amenity value is an important mechanism behind climate-related migration in the United States.

我们研究了美国家庭是否从事与气候有关的移民，在这个国家，大多数人口并不经常经历自然灾害或在气候暴露行业工作。根据来自人口普查和税务申报的全面、长期数据，我们证明，温暖的气温会导致净外迁，而较冷的气温则不会。通过比较使用不同时间变化长度的模式的估计，我们进一步表明，迁徙是对高温的中期响应：年代际和更长时间的天气变化比年变化具有更大的年化影响。最后，跨县类型的比较表明，舒适价值是美国气候相关移民背后的重要机制。

引用次数: 0

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