American Journal of Political Science最新文献

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Correction to Skill specificity and attitudes toward immigration 更正为 "技能的特殊性和对移民的态度

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12898

Pardos-Prado, S. and C. Xena. 2019. Skill specificity and attitudes toward immigration. American Journal of Political Science, 63(2): 286–304. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12406

The number of countries reported in Table 1 in the original publication of Pardos-Prado and Xena (2019) has been found to be incorrect. We are very grateful to Professor Michelle Dion for bringing this issue to our attention.

The error was due to logging GDP and unemployment spending after centering all variables. This inadvertently dropped from the analysis a significant number of observations coded as 0. The loss of country sample size after introducing logged variables was difficult to spot since the software we use to run cross-classified hierarchical models does not report the number of countries.

Reassuringly, the substantive results remain unchanged if GDP and unemployment spending are not logged, and therefore if the full sample is retrieved (13 countries across five waves). A corrected version of Table 1 can be found below. The coefficients of interest (skill specificity and occupational unemployment) remain highly significant across the four model specifications: p = 0.009 in the second model, and p = 0.000 in all other models. In fact, the coefficient of skill specificity is now more precisely estimated (narrower CIs). The sign remains consistently positive, meaning that higher values of skill specificity or occupational unemployment increase anti-immigrant attitudes. Our theory does not involve any country-specific feature, so it probably makes sense that the results are not overly sensitive to changes in the country sample.

Pardos-Prado, S. and C. Xena.2019.Skill specificity and attitudes toward immigration.美国政治科学杂志》，63（2）：https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12406The Pardos-Prado and Xena (2019)原始出版物表 1 中报告的国家数量已被发现有误。我们非常感谢 Michelle Dion 教授提请我们注意这个问题。这个错误是由于在将所有变量居中后记录了 GDP 和失业支出。由于我们用来运行交叉分类层次模型的软件并不报告国家数量，因此很难发现引入对数变量后国家样本数量的损失。令人欣慰的是，如果不对 GDP 和失业支出进行对数，并检索全部样本（5 波共 13 个国家），则实质性结果保持不变。表 1 的修正版见下文。在四个模型中，相关系数（技能特异性和职业失业率）仍然非常显著：在第二个模型中 p = 0.009，在所有其他模型中 p = 0.000。事实上，现在对技能特异性系数的估计更为精确（CIs 更小）。其符号始终为正，这意味着技能特异性或职业失业率的数值越高，反移民态度就越强烈。我们的理论不涉及任何特定国家的特征，因此结果对国家样本的变化不会过于敏感，这也许是有道理的。

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引用次数: 0

When politicians behave badly: Political, democratic, and social consequences of political incivility 当政客行为不端时：政治不文明的政治、民主和社会后果

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12897

Troels Bøggild, Carsten Jensen

Many citizens find politics too uncivil, and incivility is often considered a source of political disaffection. However, research studying these effects almost exclusively relies on survey experiments, which yield contrasting results depending on design choices and do not study downstream consequences for satisfaction with democracy and compliance with public policy. We present a theoretical argument on these downstream consequences and study how citizens respond to political incivility in their real‐life information environment using a multi‐wave survey panel of 6055 Danish citizens with 18,805 interviews spanning 18 months. Using generalized difference‐in‐differences models and a natural experiment, we demonstrate nontrivial adverse effects of political incivility on political trust, satisfaction with democracy, and intentions to comply with policies, while intentions to vote are unaffected. Our results highlight how elite rhetoric shapes support for the political system and policy compliance and pinpoint the potential and pitfalls of survey experiments and our own panel approach.

许多公民认为政治太不文明，不文明行为通常被认为是政治不满的根源。然而，对这些影响的研究几乎完全依赖于调查实验，这些实验因设计选择不同而产生截然不同的结果，而且没有研究对民主满意度和遵守公共政策的下游影响。我们提出了关于这些下游后果的理论论据，并使用一个包含 6055 名丹麦公民的多波调查面板，通过 18 个月的 18805 次访谈，研究了公民在现实信息环境中如何应对政治不文明行为。利用广义差分模型和自然实验，我们证明了政治不文明对政治信任、民主满意度和遵守政策的意愿产生了非同小可的不利影响，而投票意愿则不受影响。我们的结果凸显了精英言论如何影响对政治制度的支持和政策的遵守，并指出了调查实验和我们自己的面板方法的潜力和缺陷。

引用次数: 0

Comparing religious and secular interventions to increase young adult political participation: Evidence from WhatsApp‐based civic education courses in Zambia 比较宗教和世俗干预措施以提高年轻成年人的政治参与度：赞比亚基于 WhatsApp 的公民教育课程的证据

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-08-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12896

Elizabeth Sperber, Gwyneth H. McClendon, O'Brien Kaaba

It is often assumed that, in highly religious environments, religious messages that promote political participation will more effectively influence behavior than nonreligious messages with the same goal. To our knowledge, however, this assumption remains untested. We present results from a community‐collaborative study implemented prior to elections in Zambia, an overwhelmingly Christian country with a youth‐skewed population. We randomized young adults into different versions of a WhatsApp‐based civics course and compared outcomes after exposure to civic information only versus after civic information accompanied by either religious or nonreligious messages that promote self‐efficacy and grit. Because Zambia is a highly religious country, we expected the religious course to have the largest effect. Instead, the nonreligious efficacy‐boosting course did. The religious course performed no better than the information‐only condition. This study cautions against assuming the efficacy of religious messages, even in highly religious contexts, and identifies new questions for future research.

人们通常认为，在高度宗教化的环境中，促进政治参与的宗教信息会比具有相同目标的非宗教信息更有效地影响人们的行为。然而，据我们所知，这一假设仍未得到验证。赞比亚是一个基督教占压倒性多数的国家，人口中青年比例偏高，我们介绍了赞比亚选举前开展的一项社区合作研究的结果。我们将年轻人随机分配到不同版本的基于 WhatsApp 的公民教育课程中，并比较了只接触公民信息与在接触公民信息的同时接触宗教或非宗教信息以提高自我效能和勇气之后的结果。由于赞比亚是一个高度宗教化的国家，我们预计宗教课程的效果最大。然而，非宗教的效能提升课程却起到了作用。宗教课程的效果并不比只提供信息的课程好。这项研究提醒我们，即使在高度宗教化的背景下，也不要假定宗教信息的有效性，并为未来的研究提出了新的问题。

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引用次数: 0

From powerholders to stakeholders: State‐building with elite compensation in early medieval China 从权力拥有者到利益相关者：中世纪早期中国的精英补偿与国家建设

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12888

Joy Chen, Erik H. Wang, Xiaoming Zhang

How do rulers soften resistance by local powerholders to state‐building efforts? This paper highlights a strategy of compensation, where elites receive government offices in exchange for relinquishing their localist interests, and become uprooted and integrated into the national political system as stakeholders. We explore this strategy in the context of the Northern Wei Dynasty of China (386–534 CE) that terminated an era of state weakness during which aristocrats exercised local autonomy through strongholds. Exploiting a comprehensive state‐building reform in the late fifth century, we find that aristocrats from previously autonomous localities were disproportionately recruited into the bureaucracy as compensation for accepting stronger state presence. Three mechanisms of bureaucratic compensation facilitated state‐building. Offices received by those aristocrats: (1) carried direct benefits, (2) realigned their interests toward the ruler, and (3) mitigated credible commitment problems. Our findings shed light on the “First Great Divergence” between Late Antiquity Europe and Medieval China.

统治者如何缓和地方权力持有者对国家建设努力的抵制？本文强调了一种补偿策略，即精英们通过放弃地方主义利益来换取政府职位，并作为利益相关者被连根拔起，融入国家政治体系。我们以中国北魏（公元 386-534 年）为背景探讨了这一策略，北魏结束了贵族通过据点行使地方自治权的弱国时代。利用五世纪末的全面国家建设改革，我们发现，作为对接受更强大国家存在的补偿，来自先前自治地方的贵族被不成比例地招募到官僚机构中。三种官僚补偿机制促进了国家建设。这些贵族获得的职位：（1）带来直接利益；（2）使他们的利益与统治者相一致；（3）缓解了可信承诺问题。我们的发现揭示了古代晚期欧洲与中世纪中国之间的 "第一次大分化"。

引用次数: 0

Bending the Iron Law: The distribution of power within political parties 弯曲铁律：政党内部的权力分配

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12889

Giovanna M. Invernizzi, Carlo Prato

How do political parties share power internally? We study the internal organization of political parties as the solution of a moral hazard problem between a party conference and its factions. Factions' mobilization efforts benefit the party electorally, but can only be imperfectly monitored. In contrast with the logic of Michel's Iron Law, we provide a functionalist rationale for intraparty power sharing: We show that internal power sharing can enhance a party's electoral performance. This effect is stronger in settings that award more resources to election winners: Low interparty power sharing produces high intraparty power sharing. We also show that intraparty power sharing should be more frequent within smaller parties, when monitoring of factional effort is more precise (e.g., preferential voting systems), and when factions' ideological disagreements span multiple dimensions.

政党如何在内部分享权力？我们将政党的内部组织作为政党大会与其派系之间道德风险问题的解决方案来研究。派系的动员努力有利于政党的选举，但只能受到不完善的监督。与米歇尔铁律的逻辑相反，我们为党内权力分享提供了功能主义的理论依据：我们表明，党内权力分享可以提高政党的选举绩效。在向选举获胜者提供更多资源的情况下，这种效果会更强：党内权力分享程度低，党内权力分享程度就高。我们还表明，在规模较小的政党中，当对派系努力的监督更为精确时（如优先投票系统），以及当派系的意识形态分歧涉及多个方面时，党内权力分享应该更为频繁。

引用次数: 0

Chinese state media persuades a global audience that the “China model” is superior: Evidence from a 19‐country experiment 中国国家媒体说服全球受众相信 "中国模式 "是优越的：来自 19 国实验的证据

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12887

Daniel Mattingly, Trevor Incerti, Changwook Ju, Colin Moreshead, Seiki Tanaka, Hikaru Yamagishi

Many are skeptical of the appeal of authoritarian political systems. We argue that global audiences will embrace authoritarian models when they believe that autocracies can meet governance challenges better than democracies. We collect comprehensive data on the external messaging of the Chinese and American governments. We then conduct a randomized experiment in 19 countries across six continents exposing global citizens to real messages from the Chinese and American governments’ external media arms. We find that exposure to a representative set of Chinese messages strengthens perceptions that the Chinese Communist Party delivers growth, stability, and competent leadership. It also moves the average respondent from slightly preferring the American model to slightly preferring the Chinese model. In head‐to‐head matchups, messages from the US government are less persuasive. Our findings show how autocracies build global support by selling growth and competence, with important implications for democratic resilience.

许多人对专制政治制度的吸引力持怀疑态度。我们认为，当全球受众认为专制政体比民主政体更能应对治理挑战时，他们就会接受专制模式。我们收集了有关中国和美国政府对外宣传的全面数据。然后，我们在六大洲的 19 个国家进行了一次随机实验，让全球公民接触来自中美两国政府对外媒体部门的真实信息。我们发现，接触一组具有代表性的中国信息会增强人们对中国共产党带来增长、稳定和称职领导的看法。这也使普通受访者从略微偏好美国模式转变为略微偏好中国模式。在正面交锋中，美国政府的信息说服力较弱。我们的研究结果表明，专制政体如何通过推销增长和能力来赢得全球支持，这对民主的韧性有着重要影响。

引用次数: 4

Selective exposure and echo chambers in partisan television consumption: Evidence from linked viewership, administrative, and survey data 党派电视消费中的选择性曝光和回音室：来自关联收视率、行政和调查数据的证据

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12886

David E. Broockman, Joshua L. Kalla

Influential theories doubt that partisan television's audience is sufficiently large, moderate, or isolated from cross‐cutting sources for it to meaningfully influence public opinion. However, limitations of survey‐based television consumption measures leave these questions unresolved. We argue that nonpolitical attributes of partisan channels can attract voters to form habits for watching channels with slants they do not fully share. We report findings from three novel datasets which each link behavioral measures of television consumption to political administrative or survey data. We find that approximately 15% of Americans consume over 8 hours/month of partisan television. Additionally, weak partisans, independents, and outpartisans comprise over half of partisan channels’ audiences. Finally, partisan television consumers largely consume only one partisan channel and remain loyal to it over time, consistent with “echo chambers.” These findings support our argument and suggest partisan television's potential to influence public opinion cannot be dismissed.

有影响的理论怀疑，党派电视的受众是否足够多、足够温和，或与跨领域的信息来源相隔离，从而对公众舆论产生有意义的影响。然而，基于调查的电视消费测量方法的局限性使得这些问题悬而未决。我们认为，党派频道的非政治属性可以吸引选民养成收看他们并不完全赞同的频道的习惯。我们报告了三个新数据集的发现，每个数据集都将电视消费行为测量与政治行政或调查数据联系起来。我们发现，大约 15%的美国人每月消费 8 小时以上的党派电视。此外，弱党派人士、独立人士和非党派人士占党派频道受众的一半以上。最后，党派电视消费者大多只消费一个党派频道，并长期忠于该频道，这与 "回声室 "是一致的。这些发现支持了我们的论点，并表明党派电视影响舆论的潜力不容忽视。

引用次数: 0

Antipolitical class bias in corruption sentencing 腐败判决中的反政治阶级偏见

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12885

Luiz Doria Vilaça, Marco Morucci, Victoria Paniagua

Are corruption trials that involve the highest ranks in the public sphere and large private companies biased against some groups? Existing research predominantly focuses on corruption prosecutions of politicians, leaving unresolved the extent to which judges apply differential treatment when convicting and sentencing the political class compared to other defendants, including those in the private sector. To address this gap, we investigate judicial bias within Brazil's famous “Operação Lava Jato,” the largest corruption investigation carried out in history. Leveraging an original database that traces the trajectory of the universe of the 3154 cases of Lava Jato, we show that judges' sentencing decisions were not governed by a partisan logic. Instead, judges were more inclined to impose longer prison times and higher fines to elected politicians when compared to all other defendants, particularly those from the private sector. We interpret these findings as evidence of antipolitical class bias.

涉及公共领域最高层和大型私营公司的腐败审判是否对某些群体有偏见？现有的研究主要集中在对政客的腐败起诉上，与其他被告（包括私营部门的被告）相比，法官在对政界人士定罪和量刑时在多大程度上采取了区别对待的做法，这一问题尚未得到解决。为了填补这一空白，我们调查了巴西著名的 "熔岩之战"（Operação Lava Jato）中的司法偏见。利用追溯 "熔岩之战 "3154 起案件轨迹的原始数据库，我们发现法官的量刑决定并不受党派逻辑的支配。相反，与所有其他被告，尤其是来自私营部门的被告相比，法官更倾向于对民选政治家判处更长的刑期和更高的罚款。我们将这些发现解释为反政治阶级偏见的证据。

引用次数: 0

The rise of and demand for identity‐oriented media coverage 以身份为导向的媒体报道的兴起和需求

IF 5 1区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12875

Daniel J. Hopkins, Yphtach Lelkes, Samuel Wolken

While some assert that social identities have become more salient in American media coverage, existing evidence is largely anecdotal. An increased emphasis on social identities has important political implications, including for polarization and representation. We first document the rising salience of different social identities using natural language processing tools to analyze all tweets from 19 media outlets (2008–2021) alongside 553,078 URLs shared on Facebook. We then examine one potential mechanism: Outlets may highlight meaningful social identities—race/ethnicity, gender, religion, or partisanship—to attract readers through various social and psychological pathways. We find that identity cues are associated with increases in some forms of engagement on social media. To probe causality, we analyze 3,828 randomized headline experiments conducted via Upworthy. Headlines mentioning racial/ethnic identities generated more engagement than headlines that did not, with suggestive evidence for other identities. Identity‐oriented media coverage is growing and rooted partly in audience demand.

虽然有人断言社会身份在美国媒体报道中变得更加突出，但现有证据大多是传闻。对社会身份的日益重视具有重要的政治意义，包括对两极分化和代表性的影响。我们首先使用自然语言处理工具分析了 19 家媒体的所有推文（2008-2021 年）以及 Facebook 上共享的 553078 个 URL，记录了不同社会身份日益突出的情况。然后，我们研究了一种潜在的机制：媒体可能会强调有意义的社会身份--种族/民族、性别、宗教或党派，从而通过各种社会和心理途径吸引读者。我们发现，身份线索与社交媒体上某些形式参与的增加有关。为了探究因果关系，我们分析了通过 Upworthy 进行的 3828 个随机标题实验。与未提及种族/民族身份的标题相比，提及种族/民族身份的标题能产生更多的参与度，其他身份也是如此。以身份为导向的媒体报道越来越多，部分源于受众的需求。

引用次数: 0

Blending in or standing out? Gendered political communication in 24 democracies 融入还是脱颖而出？24 个民主国家中的性别政治传播

IF 4.2 1区社会学 Q1 Social Sciences

American Journal of Political Science

Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12876

Bruno Castanho Silva, Danielle Pullan, Jens Wäckerle

Women in male‐dominated organizations often must adopt more stereotypical masculine traits to advance within those hierarchies. While politics, historically male‐dominated, should induce women to blend in, increasing numbers of women in parliaments may give women the opportunity to stand out by not adopting a masculine style. This paper investigates how these contradictory incentives influence female Members of Parliament (MPs) in 24 democracies between 1987 and 2022, applying machine learning to 6.8 million parliamentary speeches to measure how feminine is their speaking style. Findings indicate a socialization effect, whereby women adopt a more masculine style the longer they stay in office, even after controlling for their speeches’ topics. The effect is strongest for women in socially progressive parties. This research highlights the role of parliaments as gendered workplaces, which still lead women to adapt to the male norm, and helps us understand the incentives that shape how women represent women in parliament.

在男性占主导地位的组织中，妇女往往必须采用更多陈规定型的男性特征，才能在这些等级制度中晋升。政治历来以男性为主导，应该促使女性融入其中，而议会中女性人数的增加则可能给女性提供机会，让她们不采用男性化风格，从而脱颖而出。本文研究了 1987 年至 2022 年间，这些相互矛盾的激励因素如何影响 24 个民主国家的女议员，并对 680 万份议会演讲稿进行了机器学习，以衡量其演讲风格的女性化程度。研究结果表明了一种社会化效应，即女性在职时间越长，其演讲风格就越男性化，即使在控制了演讲主题之后也是如此。这种效应对社会进步政党中的女性最为明显。这项研究强调了议会作为性别化工作场所的作用，它仍在引导妇女适应男性规范，并帮助我们了解形成妇女如何在议会中代表妇女的激励因素。

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全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

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