How do populations facing external aggression view the costs and benefits of self-defense? In Western countries, war support has been shown to follow cost–benefit calculations, resembling the moral principle of proportionality. A categorical position, in contrast, means supporting self-defense regardless of the costs. To evaluate which moral principle populations facing external aggression follow, we conducted a conjoint experiment with 1,160 Ukrainians in July 2022. We examine support for different strategies Ukraine could pursue against Russia, which vary regarding the political autonomy and territorial integrity they afford and three costs: civilian and military fatalities, and nuclear risk. We find that Ukrainians do not trade off autonomy or territory against these costs. A new method to rank conjoint-attributes, computing “nested” marginal means, shows that respondents categorically reject political or territorial concessions, regardless of costs. This provides first experimental evidence that populations resisting external aggression do not subject war outcomes to cost–benefit calculations.
{"title":"At Any Cost: How Ukrainians Think about Self-Defense Against Russia","authors":"Janina Dill, Marnie Howlett, Carl Müller-Crepon","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12832","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12832","url":null,"abstract":"<p>How do populations facing external aggression view the costs and benefits of self-defense? In Western countries, war support has been shown to follow cost–benefit calculations, resembling the moral principle of proportionality. A categorical position, in contrast, means supporting self-defense regardless of the costs. To evaluate which moral principle populations facing external aggression follow, we conducted a conjoint experiment with 1,160 Ukrainians in July 2022. We examine support for different strategies Ukraine could pursue against Russia, which vary regarding the political autonomy and territorial integrity they afford and three costs: civilian and military fatalities, and nuclear risk. We find that Ukrainians do not trade off autonomy or territory against these costs. A new method to rank conjoint-attributes, computing “nested” marginal means, shows that respondents categorically reject political or territorial concessions, regardless of costs. This provides first experimental evidence that populations resisting external aggression do not subject war outcomes to cost–benefit calculations.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12832","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135729711","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Consensus from the debate over lagged dependent variables in dynamic linear regression models advises that including enough lags of the dependent and independent variables will fully model autocorrelation in the error term. But this approach fails to account for a long‐neglected source of autocorrelation in the error term—moving averages—which cannot be represented with a finite number of lags. Approximating moving averages results in either inconsistent or inefficient estimates of relevant quantities of interest, a claim demonstrated here via Monte Carlo simulations and three empirical demonstrations. Ultimately, we argue that moving averages should be a standard part of dynamic analysis and offer guidance for incorporating them into various modeling strategies.
{"title":"The Necessity of Moving Averages in Dynamic Linear Regression Models","authors":"Garrett N. Vande Kamp, Soren Jordan","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12825","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12825","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Consensus from the debate over lagged dependent variables in dynamic linear regression models advises that including enough lags of the dependent and independent variables will fully model autocorrelation in the error term. But this approach fails to account for a long‐neglected source of autocorrelation in the error term—moving averages—which cannot be represented with a finite number of lags. Approximating moving averages results in either inconsistent or inefficient estimates of relevant quantities of interest, a claim demonstrated here via Monte Carlo simulations and three empirical demonstrations. Ultimately, we argue that moving averages should be a standard part of dynamic analysis and offer guidance for incorporating them into various modeling strategies.","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135537487","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Aristotle's analysis in the Rhetoric of the intelligibility of passionately angry political speech is an urgently needed addition to the ongoing scholarly reassessment of his relevance to democratic practices. Aristotle shows his readers—both orators and their auditors, citizens who might both rule and be ruled—that anger is prone to exaggeration and distortion and is therefore liable to be amplified into hatred. He shows further though that if instead of simply being exaggerated, anger is taken “seriously,” then a more sober and measured politics can ensue, one less destructive of a good legal order.
{"title":"Anger, Hatred, and Judgment in Aristotle's <i>Rhetoric</i>","authors":"Alexander S. Duff","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12830","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12830","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Aristotle's analysis in the Rhetoric of the intelligibility of passionately angry political speech is an urgently needed addition to the ongoing scholarly reassessment of his relevance to democratic practices. Aristotle shows his readers—both orators and their auditors, citizens who might both rule and be ruled—that anger is prone to exaggeration and distortion and is therefore liable to be amplified into hatred. He shows further though that if instead of simply being exaggerated, anger is taken “seriously,” then a more sober and measured politics can ensue, one less destructive of a good legal order.","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135815565","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The author thanks Hu, Tai, and Solt (2022) for identifying these errors.
These errors have been corrected, democratic support re-estimated, and the analyses employed in the Claassen (2020) rerun. The corrected Tables 1 and 2 and Figures 1 and 3 are provided below. The corrected replication data set is available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/HWLW0J, as is a document with corrected supplementary information and analyses.
The corrected results are similar to those reported in the original article. For example, in model 1.1., Claassen (2020) originally reported an effect of support on democracy of 0.267 with a standard error of 0.094. In the corrected results, the corresponding coefficient and standard error are 0.273 and 0.094. As such, the corrected analyses confirm the conclusions drawn in Claassen (2020).
{"title":"Erratum: Does Public Support Help Democracy Survive?","authors":"Christopher Claassen","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12828","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12828","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The author thanks Hu, Tai, and Solt (<span>2022</span>) for identifying these errors.</p><p>These errors have been corrected, democratic support re-estimated, and the analyses employed in the Claassen (<span>2020</span>) rerun. The corrected Tables 1 and 2 and Figures 1 and 3 are provided below. The corrected replication data set is available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/HWLW0J, as is a document with corrected supplementary information and analyses.</p><p>The corrected results are similar to those reported in the original article. For example, in model 1.1., Claassen (<span>2020</span>) originally reported an effect of support on democracy of 0.267 with a standard error of 0.094. In the corrected results, the corresponding coefficient and standard error are 0.273 and 0.094. As such, the corrected analyses confirm the conclusions drawn in Claassen (<span>2020</span>).</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12828","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139336908","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the article titled “The Well-Ordered Society Under Crisis: A Formal Analysis of Public Reason vs. Convergence Discourse,” which was published in January 2020 in Volume 64, Issue 1 of the American Journal of Political Science, an error has been identified in the payoffs attributed to the game tree presented in Figure 4, labeled as “The Well-Ordered Society under Crisis with Public Reason” (Chung 2020: 89). The corrected Figure 4, containing the corrected payoffs, is provided below:
The statement of Proposition 2 and Proposition 3 (Chung 2020: 90) along with their corresponding proofs (Chung 2020: 98) were all established on the basis of the correct payoffs delineated in the corrected Figure 4 provided above. Consequently, no revisions are required for the textual content or the formal analyses presented within the original paper.
{"title":"Erratum to “The Well-Ordered Society under Crisis: A Formal Analysis of Public Reason vs. Convergence Discourse” American Journal of Political Science, Volume 64, Issue 1, January 2020, pp. 82–101","authors":"Hun Chung","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12831","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12831","url":null,"abstract":"<p>In the article titled “The Well-Ordered Society Under Crisis: A Formal Analysis of Public Reason vs. Convergence Discourse,” which was published in January 2020 in Volume 64, Issue 1 of the <i>American Journal of Political Science</i>, an error has been identified in the payoffs attributed to the game tree presented in Figure 4, labeled as “The Well-Ordered Society under Crisis with Public Reason” (Chung <span>2020</span>: 89). The corrected Figure 4, containing the corrected payoffs, is provided below:</p><p>The statement of Proposition 2 and Proposition 3 (Chung <span>2020</span>: 90) along with their corresponding proofs (Chung <span>2020</span>: 98) were all established on the basis of the correct payoffs delineated in the corrected Figure 4 provided above. Consequently, no revisions are required for the textual content or the formal analyses presented within the original paper.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12831","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139336936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Presidents occupy a unique role as both the head of the executive branch and a de facto party leader. They nationalize politics and polarize lawmaking. Members of Congress know this, and they leverage the president's symbolic power to heighten political conflict. I argue that lawmakers, particularly those in the nonpresidential party, invoke the president to nationalize legislative debate and polarize constituent opinion. Using the text of House and Senate floor speeches between 1973 and 2016 and a within-member panel design, I find that legislators reference the president more frequently in the out-party and increasingly so as a district's media environment becomes more nationalized. Presidential references are also moderated by constituency partisanship. I support the behavioral implications with a vignette experiment: when a Republican Senator invokes President Biden in a policy speech, Republican respondents increase approval of that Senator and oppose political compromise. This research highlights the institutional consequences of nationalization and negative partisanship.
{"title":"Presidential Cues and the Nationalization of Congressional Rhetoric, 1973–2016","authors":"Benjamin S. Noble","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12822","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12822","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Presidents occupy a unique role as both the head of the executive branch and a de facto party leader. They nationalize politics and polarize lawmaking. Members of Congress know this, and they leverage the president's symbolic power to heighten political conflict. I argue that lawmakers, particularly those in the nonpresidential party, invoke the president to nationalize legislative debate and polarize constituent opinion. Using the text of House and Senate floor speeches between 1973 and 2016 and a within-member panel design, I find that legislators reference the president more frequently in the out-party and increasingly so as a district's media environment becomes more nationalized. Presidential references are also moderated by constituency partisanship. I support the behavioral implications with a vignette experiment: when a Republican Senator invokes President Biden in a policy speech, Republican respondents increase approval of that Senator and oppose political compromise. This research highlights the institutional consequences of nationalization and negative partisanship.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135258705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Matthew A. Baum, James N. Druckman, Matthew D. Simonson, Jennifer Lin, Roy H. Perlis
Depression can affect individuals’ attitudes by enhancing cognitive biases and altering perceptions of control. We investigate the relationship between depressive symptoms and Americans’ attitudes regarding domestic extremist violence. We develop a theory that suggests the association between depression and support for political violence depends on conspiracy beliefs, participatory inclinations, and their combination. We test our theory using a two-wave national survey panel from November 2020 and January 2021. We find that among those who hold conspiracy beliefs and/or have participatory inclinations, depression is positively associated with support for election violence and the January 6 Capitol riots. The participatory inclination dynamic is particularly strong for men. Our findings reveal how the intersection of two concerning features of American society—poor mental health and conspiratorial beliefs—strongly relate to another feature: support for political violence. The results also make clear that interventions aimed at addressing depression can potentially have substantial political consequences.
{"title":"The Political Consequences of Depression: How Conspiracy Beliefs, Participatory Inclinations, and Depression Affect Support for Political Violence","authors":"Matthew A. Baum, James N. Druckman, Matthew D. Simonson, Jennifer Lin, Roy H. Perlis","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12827","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12827","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Depression can affect individuals’ attitudes by enhancing cognitive biases and altering perceptions of control. We investigate the relationship between depressive symptoms and Americans’ attitudes regarding domestic extremist violence. We develop a theory that suggests the association between depression and support for political violence depends on conspiracy beliefs, participatory inclinations, and their combination. We test our theory using a two-wave national survey panel from November 2020 and January 2021. We find that among those who hold conspiracy beliefs and/or have participatory inclinations, depression is positively associated with support for election violence and the January 6 Capitol riots. The participatory inclination dynamic is particularly strong for men. Our findings reveal how the intersection of two concerning features of American society—poor mental health and conspiratorial beliefs—strongly relate to another feature: support for political violence. The results also make clear that interventions aimed at addressing depression can potentially have substantial political consequences.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12827","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135983113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Isaac D. Mehlhaff, Timothy J. Ryan, Marc J. Hetherington, Michael B. MacKuen
Contemporary American politics has been largely characterized by hyperpartisanship and polarization, with partisan-motivated reasoning a thematic concern. Theories of emotions in politics suggest that anxiety might interrupt partisan heuristics and encourage citizens to reason more evenhandedly—but in what domains and to what extent? We use original panel data to assess how anxiety about becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 interacted with partisan attachments to shape political judgment during the COVID-19 pandemic. The structure of our data allows us to assess large-scale implications of politically relevant emotions in ways that so far have not been possible. We find large effects on policy attitudes: Republicans who were afraid of getting sick rejected signals from copartisan leaders by supporting mask mandates and the like. Effects on vote choice for Republicans were muted in comparison, but fear's large effect on independents may have been pivotal.
{"title":"Where Motivated Reasoning Withers and Looms Large: Fear and Partisan Reactions to the COVID-19 Pandemic","authors":"Isaac D. Mehlhaff, Timothy J. Ryan, Marc J. Hetherington, Michael B. MacKuen","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12808","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12808","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Contemporary American politics has been largely characterized by hyperpartisanship and polarization, with partisan-motivated reasoning a thematic concern. Theories of emotions in politics suggest that anxiety might interrupt partisan heuristics and encourage citizens to reason more evenhandedly—but in what domains and to what extent? We use original panel data to assess how anxiety about becoming seriously ill from COVID-19 interacted with partisan attachments to shape political judgment during the COVID-19 pandemic. The structure of our data allows us to assess large-scale implications of politically relevant emotions in ways that so far have not been possible. We find large effects on policy attitudes: Republicans who were afraid of getting sick rejected signals from copartisan leaders by supporting mask mandates and the like. Effects on vote choice for Republicans were muted in comparison, but fear's large effect on independents may have been pivotal.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136071832","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Presidents select from a range of instruments when creating new policies through executive action. We study strategic substitution in this context and argue that presidents use less visible means of unilateral instruments when Congress is likely to scrutinize presidential action. Using data on unilateral orders issued between 1946 and 2020, we report two main findings. First, analyzing presidents’ choice of instruments, we show that presidents are more likely to substitute memoranda and other less visible instruments for executive orders and proclamations during periods of divided government. Second, after accounting for the substitution of executive orders with other instruments, we find that presidents issue greater numbers of directives during divided government than during unified government. These findings provide new evidence about the limitations of the separation of powers as a constraint on presidential unilateralism and highlight the importance of accounting for the variety of instruments through which presidents create unilateral policies.
{"title":"Divided Government, Strategic Substitution, and Presidential Unilateralism","authors":"Aaron R. Kaufman, Jon C. Rogowski","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12821","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12821","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Presidents select from a range of instruments when creating new policies through executive action. We study strategic substitution in this context and argue that presidents use less visible means of unilateral instruments when Congress is likely to scrutinize presidential action. Using data on unilateral orders issued between 1946 and 2020, we report two main findings. First, analyzing presidents’ choice of instruments, we show that presidents are more likely to substitute memoranda and other less visible instruments for executive orders and proclamations during periods of divided government. Second, after accounting for the substitution of executive orders with other instruments, we find that presidents issue greater numbers of directives during divided government than during unified government. These findings provide new evidence about the limitations of the separation of powers as a constraint on presidential unilateralism and highlight the importance of accounting for the variety of instruments through which presidents create unilateral policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12821","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44702165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Three key characteristics of effective electoral mobilizers have been identified in the literature: reputation, embeddedness in the local community, and the ability to reward and sanction voters. Religious leaders may possess all these characteristics. Can they favor their preferred candidates? Using a novel data set of connections between politicians and Italian Catholic bishops throughout the twentieth century, I conduct the first quantitative assessment of the electoral returns of personal connections to a religious leader. Leveraging the timing of bishops’ nominations within a difference-in-differences strategy, I estimate that bishops born in the electoral district yield a 27% increase in the individual preference votes for their connected candidate. Additional analyses point to the provision of campaign opportunities as the main mechanism driving the effect. These findings suggest that religious authorities can use their local embeddedness to mobilize voters, eventually influencing the selection of representatives in democratic systems.
{"title":"Religious Mobilization and the Selection of Political Elites: Evidence from Postwar Italy","authors":"Massimo Pulejo","doi":"10.1111/ajps.12820","DOIUrl":"10.1111/ajps.12820","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Three key characteristics of effective electoral mobilizers have been identified in the literature: reputation, embeddedness in the local community, and the ability to reward and sanction voters. Religious leaders may possess all these characteristics. Can they favor their preferred candidates? Using a novel data set of connections between politicians and Italian Catholic bishops throughout the twentieth century, I conduct the first quantitative assessment of the electoral returns of personal connections to a religious leader. Leveraging the timing of bishops’ nominations within a difference-in-differences strategy, I estimate that bishops born in the electoral district yield a 27% increase in the individual preference votes for their connected candidate. Additional analyses point to the provision of campaign opportunities as the main mechanism driving the effect. These findings suggest that religious authorities can use their local embeddedness to mobilize voters, eventually influencing the selection of representatives in democratic systems.</p>","PeriodicalId":48447,"journal":{"name":"American Journal of Political Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ajps.12820","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136280042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}