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Encouraging politicians to act on climate: A field experiment with local officials in six countries 鼓励政治家就气候问题采取行动:对六个国家的地方官员进行实地实验
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12841
Miguel M. Pereira, Nathalie Giger, Maria D. Perez, Kaya Axelsson
Local governments play an important role in addressing the climate crisis. However, despite public support for climate action, local policy responses have been limited. We argue that (1) biased beliefs about voter preferences, (2) the time horizon for credit claiming, and (3) source credibility are barriers for legislators to learn and adopt new environmental policies. We test these arguments in a real policy‐learning context. Representatives from six Western countries received customized invitations to a webinar on climate solutions for local governments. We find that constituency opinion on climate issues made local office‐holders more responsive to public preferences. Invitations sent by a climate scientist and emphasizing shorter term policy effects increased interest in the webinar, but did not boost the likelihood of policy commitments. Only US officials responded negatively to climate scientists. The results reveal concrete steps to induce climate action and contribute to scholarship on policy learning.
地方政府在应对气候危机方面发挥着重要作用。然而,尽管公众支持气候行动,但地方政策反应却很有限。我们认为,(1) 对选民偏好的偏差信念,(2) 信用要求的时间跨度,以及 (3) 来源可信度是立法者学习和采用新环境政策的障碍。我们在一个真实的政策学习环境中检验了这些论点。来自六个西方国家的代表收到了定制的邀请,参加为地方政府举办的气候解决方案网络研讨会。我们发现,选民对气候问题的意见使地方官员更能顺应公众的偏好。由气候科学家发出的、强调短期政策效果的邀请提高了人们对网络研讨会的兴趣,但并没有提高政策承诺的可能性。只有美国官员对气候科学家做出了负面回应。研究结果揭示了诱导气候行动的具体步骤,并为政策学习方面的学术研究做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Unsubscribed and undemanding: Partisanship and the minimal effects of a field experiment encouraging local news consumption 未订阅和无需求:党派和鼓励地方新闻消费的实地实验的最小效应
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-03-19 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12845
Daniel J. Hopkins, Tori Gorton

Local newspapers convey extensive subnational political information but have dwindling audiences. In a nationalized and polarized information environment, can online interventions increase state/local news consumption and with what effects? We explore this question via a preregistered experiment randomizing Pennsylvania residents (n = 5059) to staggered interventions encouraging news consumption from leading state newspapers. A total of 2529 individuals were offered free online subscriptions, but only 44 subscribed; we find little evidence of treatment effects on knowledge, engagement, or attitudes. We then administered a second treatment element—promoting subnational news directly via Facebook feeds—with a higher application rate but similarly limited impacts. Observational analyses of these respondents and separate national samples show that Democratic political partisanship has come to predict local newspaper subscriptions. Contemporary local newspapers may face a demand-side dilemma: The engaged citizens who formerly read them now prefer national, partisan content.

地方报纸传递着广泛的次国家政治信息,但受众却在不断减少。在全国化和两极化的信息环境中,在线干预能否增加州/地方新闻消费,效果如何?我们通过一项预先登记的实验来探讨这个问题,实验中宾夕法尼亚州居民(n = 5059)被随机分配到交错的干预措施中,以鼓励他们消费主要州级报纸的新闻。共有 2529 人获得了免费在线订阅服务,但只有 44 人订阅;我们几乎没有发现治疗对知识、参与度或态度产生影响的证据。随后,我们又实施了第二个处理要素--通过 Facebook feeds 直接推广国家以下一级的新闻--申请率较高,但影响同样有限。对这些受访者和单独的全国样本进行的观察分析表明,民主党的政治党派倾向已经开始预测地方报纸的订阅情况。当代地方报纸可能面临需求方的困境:以前阅读地方报纸的公民现在更喜欢全国性的党派内容。
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引用次数: 0
Citizens as a democratic safeguard? The sequence of sanctioning elite attacks on democracy 公民是民主的保障?认可精英对民主的攻击的顺序
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12847
M. Jacob
In many elections worldwide, citizens support politicians who have undermined democracy while in office. Why? For citizens to safeguard democratic institutions, they must not only disapprove of a politician's undemocratic conduct but also be willing to retract support from her at the next election. This article examines under which conditions citizen evaluations of undemocratic elite conduct become consequential for behavioral actions and whether specific segments of the electorate, such as politically educated, liberal, antimajoritarian, and moderate partisans, react more forcefully to such elite violations. Evidence from a survey experiment in Poland, closely following the sequence of presidential elections, reveals that citizens firmly dislike attacks on core electoral institutions, irrespective of whether they are committed by incumbent or oppositional copartisans. However, neither the electorate's nor any segment's dissent translates into revised vote choices. The study has implications for why undemocratic elite behavior often remains unpunished and citizens rarely avert democratic backsliding.
在全球许多选举中,公民都支持那些在任期间破坏民主的政客。为什么?要使公民维护民主制度,他们不仅要不赞成政治家的不民主行为,还要愿意在下次选举中撤回对她的支持。本文探讨了公民对精英不民主行为的评价在何种情况下会对行为产生影响,以及特定选民群体(如受过政治教育、自由派、反多数派和温和派)是否会对精英的违规行为做出更强烈的反应。在波兰进行的一项紧跟总统选举顺序的调查实验显示,公民坚决反对攻击核心选举机构的行为,无论这些行为是由执政党还是反对党的共同党派所为。然而,无论是选民还是任何群体的不满都不会转化为投票选择的改变。这项研究揭示了为什么不民主的精英行为常常不受惩罚,而公民却很少能避免民主倒退。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating (in)experience in congressional elections 评估国会选举的(不)经验
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12854
Rachel Porter, Sarah A. Treul
From the 1980s to the mid‐2010s, nearly three‐quarters of members newly elected to the US House of Representatives had previous elected experience; however, only half of the freshmen elected from 2016 to 2020 held prior office. In this article, we investigate emergence‐ and success‐driven explanations for the declining proportion of experienced officeholders entering Congress. In our analyses, we find that the advantages traditionally afforded to experienced candidates are waning. First, we show that inexperienced candidates’ emergence patterns have changed; amateurs are increasingly apt to emerge in the same kinds of contests as their experienced counterparts. We then show that experienced candidates have lost their fundraising edge and that—for certain kinds of candidates—the value of elected experience itself has declined. Lastly, we identify other candidate characteristics as strong predictors for success in modern elections. We demonstrate that these electorally advantageous identities overwhelmingly belong to candidates who lack elected experience.
从 20 世纪 80 年代到 2010 年代中期,近四分之三的新当选美国众议院议员曾有过当选经历;然而,在 2016 年至 2020 年当选的新生中,只有一半曾担任过公职。在这篇文章中,我们研究了经验丰富的官员进入国会的比例下降的原因,即出现和成功驱动的解释。在分析中,我们发现传统上赋予有经验候选人的优势正在减弱。首先,我们表明,缺乏经验的候选人的出现模式发生了变化;业余选手越来越倾向于在与经验丰富的候选人相同的竞争中出现。然后,我们表明,有经验的候选人已经失去了筹款优势,而且对于某些类型的候选人来说,当选经验本身的价值已经下降。最后,我们还发现了其他一些能有力预测现代选举成功与否的候选人特征。我们证明,这些对选举有利的特征绝大多数属于缺乏当选经验的候选人。
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引用次数: 0
Great expectations: The effect of unmet labor market expectations after higher education on ideology 美好的期望高等教育后未实现的劳动力市场预期对意识形态的影响
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12836
Loreto Cox

Higher education has massively expanded around the world, yet we know little about the political consequences of this expansion. Students generally have overly optimistic expectations about the returns to educational investment, and the effects of unmet expectations on graduates’ political behavior have been overlooked. I study this phenomenon in Chile with observational and experimental methods, using unique panel survey data collected from new graduates covering 72% of higher education enrollment. The survey tracks students before and after they enter the labor market and includes an experiment that induces variation in their expectations. The panel data reveals that 65% of students have unmet expectations, and both methods indicate that this induces a shift toward progovernment/proequality ideology. Overall, this study shows that the gap between aspirations and reality upon graduation can be an important driver of political attitudes.

高等教育在全球范围内大规模扩张,但我们对这种扩张的政治后果却知之甚少。学生们普遍对教育投资的回报抱有过于乐观的期望,而期望落空对毕业生政治行为的影响却一直被忽视。我采用观察法和实验法,利用从占高等教育入学人数 72% 的应届毕业生中收集的独特的面板调查数据,对智利的这一现象进行了研究。该调查跟踪学生进入劳动力市场前后的情况,并包括一项诱导学生期望变化的实验。面板数据显示,65% 的学生的期望值未得到满足,而这两种方法都表明,这会诱导学生向进步政府/平等思想转变。总之,本研究表明,毕业时期望与现实之间的差距可能是政治态度的重要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Hierarchy and war 等级制度与战争
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-10 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12855
Maël van Beek, Michael Z. Lopate, Andrew Goodhart, David A. Peterson, Jared Edgerton, Haoming Xiong, Maryum Alam, Leyla Tiglay, Daniel Kent, Bear F. Braumoeller
Scholars have written extensively about hierarchical international order, on the one hand, and war on the other, but surprisingly little work systematically explores the connection between the two. This disconnect is all the more striking given that empirical studies have found a strong relationship between the two. We provide a generative computational network model that explains hierarchy and war as two elements of a larger recursive process: The threat of war drives the formation of hierarchy, which in turn shapes states' incentives for war. Grounded in canonical theories of hierarchy and war, the model explains an array of known regularities about hierarchical order and conflict. Surprisingly, we also find that many traditional results of the international relations literature—including institutional persistence, balancing behavior, and systemic self‐regulation—emerge from the interplay between hierarchy and war.
学者们对等级国际秩序和战争的论述可谓汗牛充栋,但令人惊讶的是,很少有研究系统地探讨二者之间的联系。鉴于实证研究发现二者之间存在密切关系,这种脱节就显得更加突出。我们提供了一个生成计算网络模型,将等级制度和战争解释为一个更大的递归过程中的两个要素:战争威胁推动等级制度的形成,而等级制度又反过来影响国家的战争动机。该模型以等级制度和战争的经典理论为基础,解释了等级秩序和冲突的一系列已知规律性。令人惊讶的是,我们还发现,国际关系文献中的许多传统成果--包括制度持久性、平衡行为和系统自我调节--都产生于等级制度与战争之间的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Whose critique matters? The effects of critic identity and audience on public opinion 谁的批评重要?评论家身份和受众对舆论的影响
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12846
Yehonatan Abramson, Anil Menon, Abir Gitlin
When evaluating the impact of naming and shaming on public opinion regarding human rights, existing scholarship focuses on messages coming from ingroup or outgroup critics. Diaspora critics, increasingly vocal and visible in recent years, occupy an in‐between identity. What, if any, is the impact of criticism coming from such critics? We address this question by fielding a pre‐registered survey experiment in Israel, a country that routinely faces diasporic criticism. We find that exposure to criticism from both diaspora and foreign critics (but not from domestic critics) triggered a backlash response on the criticized issue (human rights) compared to a no‐criticism condition. However, diaspora critics have a slight advantage over foreigners—their intentions for criticizing the state are perceived as more positive. Despite limited direct impact on public opinion, our findings suggest that the human rights regime could benefit from involving diasporic and domestic actors in their efforts.
在评估 "点名羞辱 "对有关人权的公众舆论的影响时,现有的学术研究侧重于来自群体内或群体外批评者的信息。近年来,散居国外的批评者的声音越来越大,也越来越引人注目,他们的身份介于两者之间。这类批评者的批评会产生什么影响?为了解决这个问题,我们在以色列这个经常面临散居批评的国家进行了一次预先登记的调查实验。我们发现,与没有批评的情况相比,受到散居国外者和外国批评家的批评(而不是国内批评家的批评)会引发对被批评问题(人权)的反弹反应。不过,侨民批评者比外国人略胜一筹--他们批评国家的意图被认为更积极。尽管对公众舆论的直接影响有限,但我们的研究结果表明,让侨民和国内行动者参与到人权制度的工作中来,会使人权制度受益匪浅。
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引用次数: 0
The contestable peoplehood account of democratically legitimate boundaries 关于民主合法边界的可争论的人民性论述
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12851
Tara Ginnane
This article presents a new way to assess whether laws that grant membership of a democratic people are themselves democratically legitimate. It thus offers a new answer to the old question of whether a democracy's boundaries can be democratic. The contestable peoplehood account builds from work that sees boundaries as irresolvable paradoxes that generate legitimacy through contestation. It also shows that boundaries shape identity by implying substantive accounts of peoplehood. Connecting these threads, it argues that boundaries are democratically legitimate when their implied accounts of peoplehood support contestation about what the basis of the people should be. It develops two new criteria to assess this, called contingency and non‐denigration. The contestable peoplehood account offers a more politicized and pluralist way to assess boundaries’ democratic legitimacy than previously available.
本文提出了一种新的方法来评估赋予民主人民成员资格的法律本身是否具有民主合法性。因此,它为民主国家的边界是否民主这一老生常谈的问题提供了新的答案。有争议的人民性理论建立在将边界视为无法解决的悖论的基础之上,这种悖论通过争议产生合法性。它还表明,边界通过隐含实质性的人民性论述来塑造身份。将这些线索联系起来,它认为,当边界所隐含的人民性描述支持关于人民基础的争论时,边界就具有民主合法性。它提出了两个新的评估标准,即 "或然性 "和 "非移民性"。与以前的方法相比,"有争议的人民性 "为评估边界的民主合法性提供了一种更加政治化和多元化的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Building tribes: How administrative units shaped ethnic groups in Africa 建设部落:行政单位如何塑造非洲的民族群体
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12835
Carl Müller-Crepon
Ethnic identities around the world are deeply intertwined with modern statehood, yet the extent to which territorial governance has shaped ethnic groups is empirically unknown. I argue that governments at the national and subnational levels have incentives to bias governance in favor of large groups. The resulting disadvantages for ethnic minorities motivate their assimilation and emigration. Both gradually align ethnic groups with administrative borders. I examine the result of this process at subnational administrative borders across sub‐Saharan Africa and use credibly exogenous, straight borders for causal identification. I find substantive increases in the local population share of administrative units' predominant ethnic group at units' borders. Powerful traditional authorities and size advantages of predominant groups increase this effect. Data on minority assimilation and migration show that both drive the shaping of ethnic groups along administrative borders. These results highlight important effects of the territorial organization of modern governance on ethnic groups.
世界各地的民族特性与现代国家地位紧密交织在一起,但领土治理在多大程度上塑造了民族群体,经验上尚无定论。我认为,国家和国家以下各级政府都有偏向于大群体的治理动机。由此给少数民族带来的不利因素促使他们同化和移民。这两种情况都会逐渐使少数民族群体与行政边界相一致。我研究了这一过程在撒哈拉以南非洲次国家行政边界的结果,并使用可信的外生直线边界进行因果识别。我发现,在行政单位边界处,行政单位的主要族群在当地人口中所占的比例大幅增加。强大的传统权威和占主导地位的群体的规模优势增加了这种效应。有关少数民族同化和移民的数据表明,这两者都推动了行政边界沿线民族群体的形成。这些结果凸显了现代治理的地域组织对族群的重要影响。
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引用次数: 0
Is authority fungible? Legitimacy, domain congruence, and the limits of power in Africa 权威是可替代的吗?非洲的合法性、领域一致性和权力限制
IF 4.2 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-29 DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12837
Kate Baldwin, Kristen Kao, Ellen Lust
Scholars increasingly recognize the plurality of leaders who exercise de facto authority in governing communities. But what limits different leaders’ power to organize distinct types of collective action beyond the law? We contend that leaders’ influence varies by activity, depending on the degree to which the activity matches the leaders’ geographic scope and field of expertise (“domain congruence”). Employing conjoint endorsement experiments in Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia, we test whether domain congruence predicts citizens’ willingness to comply with leader requests across different activities and examine the mechanisms that explain its importance. We find limits on leaders’ authority, that the concept of domain congruence helps predict the activities over which leaders have the greatest influence, and that leaders’ domain legitimacy may underpin the relationship between domain congruence and authority.
学者们越来越认识到,在治理社区的过程中,有多个领导人在行使事实上的权力。但是,是什么限制了不同领导者在法律之外组织不同类型集体行动的权力呢?我们认为,领导者的影响力因活动而异,取决于活动与领导者的地理范围和专业领域的匹配程度("领域一致性")。通过在肯尼亚、马拉维和赞比亚进行联合认可实验,我们检验了领域一致性是否能预测公民在不同活动中是否愿意遵从领导者的要求,并研究了解释其重要性的机制。我们发现领导者的权威受到限制,领域一致性的概念有助于预测领导者对哪些活动具有最大影响力,领导者的领域合法性可能是领域一致性与权威之间关系的基础。
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引用次数: 0
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American Journal of Political Science
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