Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第9页

“The dark side of the moon”: A structured analysis of generative AI | chatbots’ negative effects on SMEs “月球的阴暗面”：生成式AI b|聊天机器人对中小企业负面影响的结构化分析

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124490

Flávia L.G. Mota , Neuza C.M.Q.F. Ferreira , Marina Dabić , Fernando A.F. Ferreira , Margarida R. Santos

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has undergone a remarkable evolution, now standing as one of the most transformative technologies of our time. Among its applications, chatbots have emerged as pivotal tools for enhancing business competitiveness and efficiency. However, every innovation comes with its own set of challenges, often revealing a “dark side of the moon” that can prove catastrophic for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Unlike larger companies, SMEs often have limited resources for implementing such tools and lack information tailored to their specific needs. This study aims to uncover the pain points and enhance SME performance by establishing a structured framework that identifies cause-and-effect relationships and prioritizes the challenges posed by GenAI chatbots in these companies. To achieve this, the study follows a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach based on group discussions among a panel of experts. The approach applies cognitive mapping and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), complemented by the Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement (MICMAC) analysis. The findings are subsequently consolidated by neutral experts to ensure the robustness of the final model and to offer pertinent suggestions. The originality of this work lies in its use of expert group discussions to co-construct actionable insights, validated by neutral experts to reinforce reliability. By bridging the gap between technological advancements and the realities faced by SMEs, this study sheds light on an underexplored area, offering both theoretical and practical contributions to understanding and mitigating the risks associated with GenAI chatbots.

生成式人工智能（GenAI）经历了非凡的发展，现在已成为我们这个时代最具变革性的技术之一。在其应用中，聊天机器人已成为提高企业竞争力和效率的关键工具。然而，每一项创新都伴随着一系列挑战，往往会暴露出“月球的阴暗面”，对中小企业（SMEs）来说可能是灾难性的。与大公司不同，中小企业通常只有有限的资源来实施这些工具，并且缺乏针对其特定需求量身定制的信息。本研究旨在通过建立一个结构化框架来识别因果关系，并优先考虑GenAI聊天机器人在这些公司中带来的挑战，从而揭示痛点并提高中小企业的绩效。为了实现这一目标，该研究采用了基于专家小组讨论的多标准决策分析（MCDA）方法。方法应用认知映射和解释结构模型(ISM),辅以矩阵d的目光乘法Appliquee联合国Classement(密克马克语)分析。这些发现随后由中立专家进行整合，以确保最终模型的稳健性，并提供相关建议。这项工作的独创性在于它使用专家组讨论来共同构建可操作的见解，由中立专家验证以增强可靠性。通过弥合技术进步与中小企业面临的现实之间的差距，本研究揭示了一个未被开发的领域，为理解和减轻与GenAI聊天机器人相关的风险提供了理论和实践贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Perceptions matter. Exploring dynamics of circular economy innovation processes” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 224 (2026) 1–16 124465] “观念很重要”的勘误。循环经济创新过程的动态探索[j]。预测。Soc。Change 224 (2026) 1-16 124465]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124504

Eli Fyhn Ullern , Luitzen de Boer , Julia C. Schmitt , Sigurd Sagen Vildåsen

引用次数: 0

A promise-attentive triple embeddedness framework, applied to cellular foods 一个承诺-关注三重嵌入框架，应用于细胞食品

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124466

Mads Dahl Gjefsen

By conceptualizing embeddedness as integral to how incumbent firms evaluate technology promises, we might gain a clearer understanding of the roles these actors could play in sustainability transitions. Geels' Triple Embeddedness Framework (TEF) is traditionally applied to long-term historical analysis of firms-in-industries in the context of grand challenges; here, the framework is extended to enable analyses of technology promise dynamics, as conceptualized in cultural political economy terms. The promise-attentive TEF demarcates a global universal realm of promises from a contextual realm wherein pressures are experienced and strategies employed. The framework is applied to a study of Norwegian food system actors' views on cellular food (CF), which encompasses cultured, in-vitro meat and precision fermentation. The analysis shows how globally articulated promises become interpreted in relation to national-level factors, which not only filter pressures but also give direction to hypothetical response strategies. Empirically, the article documents skepticism among incumbents regarding CF's global uptake potential and food system transformation promises. Conceptually, the article elaborates on how the promise-attentive TEF might inform future research into technology promises as a distinct phenomenon across transition domains (e.g. health, energy, digitalization), via attention to characteristic processes in incumbents' promise evaluation, including boundary-drawing, scalar attachments, and digging deep.

通过将嵌入性概念化为现有企业如何评估技术承诺的组成部分，我们可能更清楚地了解这些参与者在可持续性转型中可能发挥的作用。Geels的三重嵌入性框架（TEF）传统上应用于大挑战背景下的行业企业的长期历史分析；在这里，该框架被扩展为能够分析技术承诺动态，如文化政治经济学术语的概念。关注承诺的TEF将承诺的全球普遍领域与经历压力和采用策略的上下文领域区分开来。该框架适用于挪威食品系统演员对细胞食品（CF）的看法的研究，其中包括培养，体外肉和精密发酵。分析显示了全球明确的承诺如何与国家层面的因素相关联，这些因素不仅过滤了压力，而且为假设的应对策略提供了方向。从经验上看，本文记录了现任者对CF全球吸收潜力和粮食系统转型承诺的怀疑态度。从概念上讲，本文详细阐述了关注承诺的TEF如何通过关注在位者承诺评估中的特征过程（包括边界绘制、标量附加和深入挖掘），为未来的技术承诺研究提供信息，将其作为一种跨过渡领域（如健康、能源、数字化）的独特现象。

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引用次数: 0

Perceptions matter. Exploring dynamics of circular economy innovation processes 观念问题。探索循环经济创新过程的动态

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124465

Eli Fyhn Ullern , Luitzen de Boer , Julia Schmitt , Sigurd Sagen Vildåsen

Transitioning to a circular economy (CE) entails a fundamental shift in how resources are produced, consumed, and valued in society. This presents challenges and opportunities for innovation across industries. Using absorptive capacity (ACAP) as a lens, we conceptualize the dynamics shaping firms' perceptions of drivers and barriers in CE innovation processes. We aim to better understand the reasons for the limited adoption of CE and how innovation processes emerge within and between firms. Through a longitudinal process study, we tracked how a collective of firms addressed the challenge of post-consumer plastic (PCP) waste in the Norwegian aquaculture industry. Our findings suggest that perceptions change over time as firms explore, assimilate, and exploit new knowledge from interactions between firm-level and the collective level. Moving from a static identification to a dynamic understanding, we captured how changing perceptions can cause shifting framings of drivers and barriers. We develop a framework that depicts how tensions are mitigated over time, in parallel with increasing adoption of CE, underscoring the need for a processual perspective. These insights are illustrated using the example of the world's first net pen walkways made of recycled PCP. Furthermore, we outline recommendations for policymakers and industry, particularly regarding the role of ‘Learning alliances’ and implications for the use of post-consumer materials across industries. Our study adds to the literature on circular economy innovation (CEI) by elucidating how drivers and barriers unfold and by highlighting the roles of collective ACAP and interaction in overcoming barriers to CE.

向循环经济转型需要从根本上改变资源的生产、消费和社会价值。这为各行各业的创新带来了挑战和机遇。以吸收能力（ACAP）为视角，我们概念化了企业对电子产品创新过程中驱动因素和障碍的认知的动态。我们的目标是更好地理解有限采用CE的原因，以及创新过程如何在公司内部和公司之间出现。通过纵向过程研究，我们跟踪了一批公司如何应对挪威水产养殖业消费后塑料（PCP）废物的挑战。我们的研究结果表明，随着企业从企业层面和集体层面的互动中探索、吸收和利用新知识，观念会随着时间的推移而改变。从静态识别到动态理解，我们捕捉到不断变化的感知如何导致驱动因素和障碍的变化框架。我们开发了一个框架，描述了随着时间的推移如何缓解紧张局势，同时越来越多地采用CE，强调了过程视角的必要性。这些见解是用世界上第一个由回收PCP制成的净笔式人行道的例子来说明的。此外，我们概述了对政策制定者和行业的建议，特别是关于“学习联盟”的作用和跨行业使用后消费材料的影响。我们的研究补充了关于循环经济创新（CEI）的文献，阐明了驱动因素和障碍是如何展开的，并强调了集体ACAP和相互作用在克服循环经济创新障碍中的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Who to collaborate: Exploring the role of knowledge overlap between inventors in innovation performance 与谁合作：探索发明者之间的知识重叠在创新绩效中的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124483

Jisoo Hur , Seokhui Lee , Junseok Hwang , Keungoui Kim

This study investigates the implications of knowledge overlap between inventors on patent performance, focusing on the technological output, technological impact, and technological distinctiveness of inventions. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from the PATSTAT database, we analyze 3,352,202 inventor pairs from patents filed by US-headquartered publicly traded firms between 1980 and 2015. Our analysis reveals that while a higher degree of knowledge overlap between inventors typically increases the patent output, measured by the number of patents produced, it is associated with lower patent impact and lower patent distinctiveness in the firm's technological portfolio. Notably, the relationship between knowledge overlap and both patent impact and patent distinctiveness exhibits a curvilinear (U-shaped) pattern, suggesting that beyond a certain threshold, increased knowledge overlap can enhance the influence and distinctiveness of inventions. This study contributes to the existing literature by underscoring the importance of balancing knowledge diversity and shared expertise in fostering innovation.

本研究探讨发明人之间的知识重叠对专利绩效的影响，重点关注发明的技术产出、技术影响和技术独特性。利用PATSTAT数据库的综合数据集，我们分析了1980年至2015年间总部位于美国的上市公司申请的专利中的3,352,202对发明人。我们的分析表明，虽然发明人之间较高程度的知识重叠通常会增加专利产出（以产生的专利数量衡量），但它与企业技术组合中较低的专利影响和较低的专利独特性相关。值得注意的是，知识重叠与专利影响和专利独特性之间的关系呈现曲线（u型）模式，表明超过一定阈值，知识重叠的增加可以增强发明的影响力和独特性。本研究通过强调平衡知识多样性和共享专业知识在促进创新中的重要性，对现有文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the impact of AI investments on waste management and mitigation from the Lens of sustainable circular economy 从可持续循环经济的角度探讨人工智能投资对废物管理和缓解的影响

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124468

Shanshan Li , Ummara Razi , Hawazen Almugren , Leilei Zhang , Aradhana Galgotia

Although artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting environmental and socio-economic progress in developed countries, its role in waste reduction, management, and recycling remains limited. Hence, this study explores the role of AI investments in waste management (WGN) and waste mitigation efforts in G7 economies through quarterly data from 2012Q1 to 2022Q4. In doing so, several econometric techniques were applied, which range from diagnostic tests for unit root and multicollinearity issues, while the primary method used was quantile regression due to the nonlinearity of the data. The outcomes show that AI's impact increases from lower to higher quantiles, from Q_15th − 0.001 towards Q_75th 0.030. In other words, AI is efficient in areas where WGN is low. However, WGN might increase due to AI, where the waste is already high due to the acceleration of industrial sectors and consumption. Furthermore, industrial productivity has a positive but insignificant impact, while urbanization has a negative and significant impact on WGN across quantiles. Air pollution has asymmetrical effects on WGN in both models. Novel policies that adopt AI technologies and applications and reduce air pollution should acknowledge the rising significance of waste management and circular economic models.

尽管人工智能（AI）正在推动发达国家的环境和社会经济进步，但它在减少废物、管理和回收方面的作用仍然有限。因此，本研究通过2012Q1至2022Q4的季度数据，探讨了人工智能投资在G7经济体废物管理（WGN）和废物减排工作中的作用。在此过程中，应用了几种计量经济学技术，其中包括对单位根和多重共线性问题的诊断测试，而由于数据的非线性，使用的主要方法是分位数回归。结果表明，人工智能的影响从低到高的分位数增加，从q15 - 0.001到q75 - 0.030。换句话说，人工智能在WGN低的区域是有效的。然而，由于人工智能，WGN可能会增加，由于工业部门和消费的加速，浪费已经很高。此外，工业生产率对WGN的影响为正但不显著，而城市化对WGN的影响为负但显著。在两个模型中，空气污染对WGN的影响是不对称的。采用人工智能技术和应用并减少空气污染的新政策应承认废物管理和循环经济模式日益重要。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing fun and function: How gamification designs and family communication shape continuous usage in online learning platforms 平衡乐趣和功能：游戏化设计和家庭交流如何塑造在线学习平台的持续使用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124464

Tianyi Ma , Bowen Zheng , Wei Wang , Hefu Liu

Online learning platforms are increasingly integral to K-12 education, but face persistent challenges with high dropout rates. While gamification is widely employed to boost engagement, there is limited research on the underlying mechanisms through which different gamification designs influence students' continuous usage intentions (CUI). This study addresses these gaps by investigating how achievement, social, and immersion gamification designs impact perceived hedonic (PHV) and utilitarian values (PUV), which in turn influence CUI. It also explores the moderating role of conversation-oriented family communication pattern (CFCP), a critical but understudied factor in K-12 education. Using a mixed-method approach that combines moderated mediation analysis and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), this study surveys 212 users of online learning platforms in central China. Results show that achievement and immersion designs are positively related to CUI through PHV, while achievement and social designs are positively related to CUI via PUV. Moreover, high CFCP strengthens the positive relationship between achievement and immersion designs on CUI via PHV, but weakens the relationship between achievement and social designs on CUI via PUV. These findings provide valuable insights for online learning platform designers and educators, offering guidance on how to tailor gamification strategies to improve student engagement and retention.

在线学习平台日益成为K-12教育不可或缺的一部分，但面临着高辍学率的持续挑战。虽然游戏化被广泛用于提高参与度，但关于不同游戏化设计如何影响学生持续使用意图（CUI）的潜在机制的研究有限。本研究通过调查成就、社交和沉浸式游戏化设计如何影响感知享乐（PHV）和实用价值（PUV）来解决这些差距，而感知享乐（PHV）和实用价值反过来又影响CUI。本文还探讨了以对话为导向的家庭沟通模式（CFCP）的调节作用，这是K-12教育中一个关键但尚未得到充分研究的因素。本研究采用有调节中介分析和模糊集定性比较分析（fsQCA）相结合的混合方法，对中部地区212名在线学习平台用户进行了调查。结果表明，成就设计和沉浸设计通过PHV与CUI正相关，而成就设计和社交设计通过PUV与CUI正相关。此外，高CFCP通过PHV强化了成就与沉浸设计之间的正相关关系，而通过PUV削弱了成就与社交设计之间的正相关关系。这些发现为在线学习平台设计师和教育工作者提供了有价值的见解，为如何定制游戏化策略以提高学生参与度和保留率提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

Restoring consumer trust in e-commerce: The role of blockchain technology and its behavioral implications 恢复消费者对电子商务的信任：区块链技术的作用及其行为含义

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124495

Louisa Uchikoshi , Björn Frank

Blockchain technology has unique technological features that could help e-commerce firms regain consumer trust lost due to widespread online fraud. However, their effectiveness and underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Drawing on trust formation theory, this article examines the effectiveness of these blockchain technology features and its variation across consumer needs. A multi-method approach combines a randomized between-subjects experiment (Study 1: 727 consumers; pretest: 45) and a multi-wave survey of actual experiences of tech-savvy consumers (Study 2: 563 consumers; pretest: 30) in the U.S. Consistent statistically significant results show that the blockchain technology features of privacy ownership, privacy monetization, and metadata transparency increase consumer trust in e-commerce platforms. The openness of a blockchain platform to criminal sellers, which allows consumers to access illicit products, increases trust only for consumers with illicit purchase needs, while decreasing trust for consumers without such needs. Trust mediates the effects of these blockchain technology features on consumers' willingness to pay additional fees and retail use intentions, which in turn mediate the effects on actual future retail use behavior. These findings extend trust formation theory to the context of blockchain technology and inform retail practitioners of a powerful new technology for increasing consumer purchases in their online stores.

区块链技术具有独特的技术特征，可以帮助电子商务公司重新获得因广泛的网络欺诈而失去的消费者信任。然而，它们的有效性和潜在机制尚不清楚。利用信任形成理论，本文考察了这些区块链技术特征的有效性及其在消费者需求中的变化。多方法方法结合了随机受试者间实验（研究1:727名消费者；预试：45名）和对美国精通技术的消费者实际体验的多波调查（研究2:563名消费者；预试：30名）。一致的统计显著结果表明，区块链技术的隐私所有权、隐私货币化和元数据透明度特征增加了消费者对电子商务平台的信任。区块链平台向犯罪卖家开放，允许消费者接触非法产品，只增加了有非法购买需求的消费者的信任，而降低了没有此类需求的消费者的信任。信任在区块链技术特征对消费者额外付费意愿和零售使用意愿的影响中起中介作用，而消费者额外付费意愿和零售使用意愿又在未来实际零售使用行为中起中介作用。这些发现将信任形成理论扩展到区块链技术的背景下，并告知零售从业者一种强大的新技术，可以增加消费者在其在线商店中的购买。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding consumer willingness in smart retail technology: Integrating technology readiness, self-determination, and status quo bias 理解智能零售技术中的消费者意愿：整合技术准备、自我决定和现状偏见

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124461

Che-Wei Chang , Shiu-Wan Hung , Chia-Yi Hsu

The adoption of smart retail technologies, such as self-checkout systems, has reshaped the retail landscape by enhancing convenience and operational efficiency. Yet adoption remains below expectations, revealing a gap between technological innovation and consumer readiness. This study integrates Technology Readiness, Self-Determination Theory, and Status Quo Bias to examine how willingness (innovativeness, autonomy) and ability, which involves insecurity and inertia, jointly shape adoption behavior. Results show that innovativeness is positively associated with autonomy and competence, and optimism is positively associated with autonomy; autonomy relates positively to adoption intention, whereas inertia relates negatively. Discomfort and insecurity primarily feed into inertia, with no robust links to switching costs. Regarding context, employee presence moderates these relationships—weakening the autonomy–intention link, attenuating the negative association between switching costs and intention, and strengthening the deterrent effect of inertia. These findings extend traditional models (e.g., TAM, UTAUT) by detailing psychological pathways and suggesting practical strategies—such as leveraging frontline staff to address psychological barriers and designing consumer-centered interfaces—to support the diffusion of smart retail technologies.

智能零售技术的采用，如自助结账系统，通过提高便利性和运营效率，重塑了零售格局。然而，采用率仍低于预期，这暴露了技术创新与消费者准备程度之间的差距。本研究结合技术准备度、自我决定理论和现状偏见，探讨意愿（创新、自主）和能力（包括不安全感和惯性）如何共同塑造采用行为。结果表明：创新与自主性、胜任力呈显著正相关，乐观与自主性呈显著正相关；自主性与采用意向正相关，惯性与采用意向负相关。不适和不安全感主要会导致惯性，与转换成本没有明显联系。在情境方面，员工在场调节了这些关系，削弱了自主性与意愿之间的联系，减弱了转换成本与意愿之间的负相关，增强了惯性的威慑作用。这些发现扩展了传统模型（如TAM、UTAUT），详细说明了心理路径，并提出了实用策略，如利用一线员工解决心理障碍和设计以消费者为中心的界面，以支持智能零售技术的推广。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating Delphi survey accuracy in transportation: Evidence from Japanese technology foresight 评价交通运输中的德尔菲调查准确性：来自日本技术预见的证据

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124496

Sukhayl Niyazov , Olesia Maibakh , Alexei Sukharev , Tatiana Kulakova , Andrey Ufimtsev

This research evaluates the accuracy of Delphi surveys in technology foresight with a focus on the transportation sector by determining the realization status of topics forecasted in the three Science and Technology Forecast Surveys administered by Japan's National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in 1992, 1997, and 2001. The analysis included 167 topics, representing 647 observations when different Delphi rounds, survey iterations, and respondent pools are taken into account. Through expert verification, an overall forecasting accuracy rate of 25 % was found.

The results highlight a “forecastability pit”: topics in early and late technological stages demonstrate higher accuracy compared to middle stages, when technologies first enter practical use or are improved. Accuracy was lowest for “aviation” (11 %), “railway” (19 %), and “road” (25 %) sectors and highest for “marine” (31 %) and “other new transportation sectors” (36 %). Greater accuracy was not found to be correlated with higher levels of self-rated expertise, second-round Delphi forecasts, a topic's perceived importance and anticipated magnitude of effects.

The low accuracy rate may stem from the regulatory and technological complexities inherent to the sector. Overall, the study underscores the need for methodological refinements and a reassessment of the role of expert judgment processes in S&T Delphi.

本研究通过确定由日本国家科学技术政策研究所（NISTEP）于1992年、1997年和2001年进行的三次科学技术预测调查中预测的主题的实现状况，评估了德尔菲调查在技术预测方面的准确性，重点是交通部门。分析包括167个主题，在考虑不同德尔菲回合、调查迭代和受访者池时，代表647个观察结果。经专家验证，总体预测准确率为25%。结果突出了一个“可预测性坑”：与技术首次进入实际使用或得到改进的中期阶段相比，早期和晚期技术阶段的主题显示出更高的准确性。准确度最低的是“航空”（11%）、“铁路”（19%）和“公路”（25%）行业，最高的是“海洋”（31%）和“其他新运输行业”（36%）。更高的准确性与更高水平的自评专业知识、第二轮德尔菲预测、主题的感知重要性和预期影响程度无关。低准确率可能源于该行业固有的监管和技术复杂性。总体而言，该研究强调需要改进方法，并重新评估专家判断过程在标准普尔Delphi中的作用。

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引用次数: 0