Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献

英文中文

Restoring consumer trust in e-commerce: The role of blockchain technology and its behavioral implications 恢复消费者对电子商务的信任：区块链技术的作用及其行为含义

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124495

Louisa Uchikoshi , Björn Frank

Blockchain technology has unique technological features that could help e-commerce firms regain consumer trust lost due to widespread online fraud. However, their effectiveness and underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Drawing on trust formation theory, this article examines the effectiveness of these blockchain technology features and its variation across consumer needs. A multi-method approach combines a randomized between-subjects experiment (Study 1: 727 consumers; pretest: 45) and a multi-wave survey of actual experiences of tech-savvy consumers (Study 2: 563 consumers; pretest: 30) in the U.S. Consistent statistically significant results show that the blockchain technology features of privacy ownership, privacy monetization, and metadata transparency increase consumer trust in e-commerce platforms. The openness of a blockchain platform to criminal sellers, which allows consumers to access illicit products, increases trust only for consumers with illicit purchase needs, while decreasing trust for consumers without such needs. Trust mediates the effects of these blockchain technology features on consumers' willingness to pay additional fees and retail use intentions, which in turn mediate the effects on actual future retail use behavior. These findings extend trust formation theory to the context of blockchain technology and inform retail practitioners of a powerful new technology for increasing consumer purchases in their online stores.

区块链技术具有独特的技术特征，可以帮助电子商务公司重新获得因广泛的网络欺诈而失去的消费者信任。然而，它们的有效性和潜在机制尚不清楚。利用信任形成理论，本文考察了这些区块链技术特征的有效性及其在消费者需求中的变化。多方法方法结合了随机受试者间实验（研究1:727名消费者；预试：45名）和对美国精通技术的消费者实际体验的多波调查（研究2:563名消费者；预试：30名）。一致的统计显著结果表明，区块链技术的隐私所有权、隐私货币化和元数据透明度特征增加了消费者对电子商务平台的信任。区块链平台向犯罪卖家开放，允许消费者接触非法产品，只增加了有非法购买需求的消费者的信任，而降低了没有此类需求的消费者的信任。信任在区块链技术特征对消费者额外付费意愿和零售使用意愿的影响中起中介作用，而消费者额外付费意愿和零售使用意愿又在未来实际零售使用行为中起中介作用。这些发现将信任形成理论扩展到区块链技术的背景下，并告知零售从业者一种强大的新技术，可以增加消费者在其在线商店中的购买。

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引用次数: 0

Intelligence by design: Large language model work integration as strategic enablers for supply chain regeneration through digital and cognitive capabilities 设计智能：大型语言模型集成作为通过数字和认知能力实现供应链再生的战略推动者

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124497

Weiming Liu , Varun Chotia , Lu Wang , Prashant Sharma , Norah Albishri , Snigdha Dash

This research investigates how working with large language models improves the regenerative capabilities of supply chains by developing digital process transformation capability and cognitive supply chain capability, under varying levels of organisational digital experimentation culture and artificial intelligence (AI) governance maturity. This study develops and tests a multi-stage capability architecture, introducing new perspectives on about cognitive automation, AI capability settings, and algorithmic affordances. The model is validated through analysis of responses from 281 respondents in knowledge-intensive fields. Empirical research supports the proposed serial mediation, depicting that incorporating large language models in supply chains enhance regenerative capacity through digital process transformation and the reconfiguration of cognitive supply chains. Digital experimentation culture strengthens the relationship between the large language model integration into supply chain and digital process capability, whereas AI governance maturity strengthens the link between such integration and regenerative capability. This research adds to modern theories on algorithmic cognition and capability orchestration in AI-enabled systems, adds depth to digital operations and strategic management research, and demonstrates how large language model integration can create regenerative supply chains.

本研究探讨了在不同水平的组织数字实验文化和人工智能（AI）治理成熟度下，大型语言模型如何通过发展数字流程转换能力和认知供应链能力来提高供应链的再生能力。本研究开发并测试了一个多阶段的能力架构，介绍了关于认知自动化、人工智能能力设置和算法支持的新观点。通过对281名知识密集型行业受访者的回答进行分析，验证了模型的有效性。实证研究表明，在供应链中加入大型语言模型可以通过数字化流程转换和认知供应链的重构增强再生能力。数字实验文化加强了大语言模型集成到供应链与数字流程能力之间的关系，而人工智能治理成熟度则加强了这种集成与再生能力之间的联系。这项研究增加了人工智能系统中算法认知和能力编排的现代理论，增加了数字运营和战略管理研究的深度，并展示了大型语言模型集成如何创建再生供应链。

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引用次数: 0

New energy infrastructure and household energy poverty: Insights from ultra-high voltage technology 新能源基础设施与家庭能源贫困：来自超高压技术的见解

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124492

Zhiqiang Cheng, Jinyang Cai

Energy poverty threatens the health and survival of hundreds of millions of people, particularly in developing countries. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and focusing on Ultra-High Voltage, this study employs a difference-in-differences methodology to explore the potential of long-distance energy infrastructure to reduce household energy poverty. The results indicate that Ultra-High Voltage significantly reduces the probability of households falling into energy poverty. Its does so by improving household electricity accessibility and stability of supply, promoting household energy transition to electricity, and increasing household income. These effects are especially pronounced in rural areas, among higher-income households, and in regions characterized by unstable grids and high transfer capacity. Moreover, Ultra-High Voltage mitigates energy poverty arising from both heating and cooling demands. Finally, Ultra-High Voltage enhances the poverty-reduction impact of other transregional energy projects and contributes to national energy security. These findings offer guidance for policymakers seeking to deploy Ultra-High Voltage technology in support of sustainable development.

能源贫困威胁到数亿人的健康和生存，特别是在发展中国家。本研究使用来自中国家庭面板研究的数据，并以超高压为重点，采用差异中的差异方法来探索远距离能源基础设施减少家庭能源贫困的潜力。结果表明，超高压显著降低了家庭陷入能源贫困的可能性。它通过改善家庭电力可及性和供应稳定性，促进家庭能源向电力过渡，增加家庭收入来实现这一目标。这些影响在农村地区、高收入家庭以及电网不稳定和输电能力高的地区尤为明显。此外，超高压缓解了因供暖和制冷需求而产生的能源贫困。最后，特高压项目增强了其他跨区域能源项目的减贫效果，有助于国家能源安全。这些发现为寻求部署超高压技术以支持可持续发展的政策制定者提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

“The dark side of the moon”: A structured analysis of generative AI | chatbots’ negative effects on SMEs “月球的阴暗面”：生成式AI b|聊天机器人对中小企业负面影响的结构化分析

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124490

Flávia L.G. Mota , Neuza C.M.Q.F. Ferreira , Marina Dabić , Fernando A.F. Ferreira , Margarida R. Santos

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has undergone a remarkable evolution, now standing as one of the most transformative technologies of our time. Among its applications, chatbots have emerged as pivotal tools for enhancing business competitiveness and efficiency. However, every innovation comes with its own set of challenges, often revealing a “dark side of the moon” that can prove catastrophic for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Unlike larger companies, SMEs often have limited resources for implementing such tools and lack information tailored to their specific needs. This study aims to uncover the pain points and enhance SME performance by establishing a structured framework that identifies cause-and-effect relationships and prioritizes the challenges posed by GenAI chatbots in these companies. To achieve this, the study follows a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach based on group discussions among a panel of experts. The approach applies cognitive mapping and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), complemented by the Matrice d’Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement (MICMAC) analysis. The findings are subsequently consolidated by neutral experts to ensure the robustness of the final model and to offer pertinent suggestions. The originality of this work lies in its use of expert group discussions to co-construct actionable insights, validated by neutral experts to reinforce reliability. By bridging the gap between technological advancements and the realities faced by SMEs, this study sheds light on an underexplored area, offering both theoretical and practical contributions to understanding and mitigating the risks associated with GenAI chatbots.

生成式人工智能（GenAI）经历了非凡的发展，现在已成为我们这个时代最具变革性的技术之一。在其应用中，聊天机器人已成为提高企业竞争力和效率的关键工具。然而，每一项创新都伴随着一系列挑战，往往会暴露出“月球的阴暗面”，对中小企业（SMEs）来说可能是灾难性的。与大公司不同，中小企业通常只有有限的资源来实施这些工具，并且缺乏针对其特定需求量身定制的信息。本研究旨在通过建立一个结构化框架来识别因果关系，并优先考虑GenAI聊天机器人在这些公司中带来的挑战，从而揭示痛点并提高中小企业的绩效。为了实现这一目标，该研究采用了基于专家小组讨论的多标准决策分析（MCDA）方法。方法应用认知映射和解释结构模型(ISM),辅以矩阵d的目光乘法Appliquee联合国Classement(密克马克语)分析。这些发现随后由中立专家进行整合，以确保最终模型的稳健性，并提供相关建议。这项工作的独创性在于它使用专家组讨论来共同构建可操作的见解，由中立专家验证以增强可靠性。通过弥合技术进步与中小企业面临的现实之间的差距，本研究揭示了一个未被开发的领域，为理解和减轻与GenAI聊天机器人相关的风险提供了理论和实践贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Perceptions matter. Exploring dynamics of circular economy innovation processes” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 224 (2026) 1–16 124465] “观念很重要”的勘误。循环经济创新过程的动态探索[j]。预测。Soc。Change 224 (2026) 1-16 124465]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124504

Eli Fyhn Ullern , Luitzen de Boer , Julia C. Schmitt , Sigurd Sagen Vildåsen

引用次数: 0

Impact of relationship dynamics on policy reform for sustainable innovation in public healthcare in China: Social exchange theory perspective 关系动态对中国公共医疗可持续创新政策改革的影响：社会交换理论视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124500

Sheng Zheng , Mujahid Mohiuddin Babu , Alexandre Metreveli , Bidit Lal Dey , Dimitrios Koufopoulos

The Chinese government is dedicated to fostering sustainable innovation within the public healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors to safeguard public interests. However, current policies governing the pharmaceutical industry have inadequately addressed critical issues related to stakeholder dynamics and sustainable innovation performance. This study investigates how policy reform can enhance the dynamic relationships among stakeholders in China's public healthcare system, aiming to devise actionable and detailed tasks while minimizing conflicts to encourage sustainable innovation. This research presents the findings of in-depth interviews conducted with 50 participants from key stakeholders in China's public health sector, including government officials, hospital representatives, executives from state-owned pharmaceutical companies, and healthcare professionals. The findings offer valuable insights for practitioners, policymakers, and academics regarding the application of social exchange elements—such as power, trust, reputation, reciprocity, and commitment—in understanding the necessity of integrating relationship dynamics into policy design and reform within the supply chain network, all while protecting public interests. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the shortcomings of the existing policy framework and presents compelling arguments for reforms that actively involve key stakeholders in the public healthcare and pharmaceutical industries.

中国政府致力于促进公共医疗和医药领域的可持续创新，维护公共利益。然而，目前管理制药行业的政策没有充分解决与利益相关者动态和可持续创新绩效相关的关键问题。本研究旨在探讨政策改革如何增强中国公共医疗体系中利益相关者之间的动态关系，旨在制定可操作和详细的任务，同时最大限度地减少冲突，以鼓励可持续创新。本研究对中国公共卫生部门的50名主要利益相关者进行了深度访谈，包括政府官员、医院代表、国有制药公司高管和医疗保健专业人员。研究结果为实践者、政策制定者和学者提供了宝贵的见解，帮助他们理解在保护公共利益的同时，将社会交换要素（如权力、信任、声誉、互惠和承诺）应用到供应链网络内的政策设计和改革中去的必要性。此外，该研究还强调了现有政策框架的缺陷，并提出了令人信服的理由，要求公共医疗保健和制药行业的主要利益相关者积极参与改革。

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引用次数: 0

Communist CEOs and corporate sustainability: Unpacking the interplay of ideology, innovation, and power 共产主义ceo与企业可持续发展：揭示意识形态、创新和权力的相互作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124502

Xincheng Wang , Xuewei Zhang , Sujuan Zhang

CEOs play a critical role in shaping corporate sustainability, yet the mechanisms through which CEOs influence sustainability remain insufficiently understood. When Communist Party membership is considered as an executive attribute shaped by political socialization in the Chinese context, it remains unclear how CEOs' Communist ideology affects sustainability outcomes. To address this gap, this study, drawing on the upper echelons theory and managerial discretion literature, investigates how Communist CEOs translate their ideology into corporate sustainability performance through the pathways of innovation. Using 7645 observations with 1633 Chinese firms from 2012 to 2021, the analysis reveals that Communist CEOs significantly enhance environmental and social performance, and such effects are partly mediated by green, digital and integrated green-digital innovation. In addition, CEO duality strengthens the relationship between innovation and corporate sustainability performance by expanding managerial discretion. This study unpacks the black box between Communist CEOs' ideology and corporate sustainability by identifying innovation as a key explanatory pathway, and it offers implications for aligning executive ideology, leadership power, and innovation in the pursuit of sustainability performance.

ceo在塑造企业可持续性方面发挥着关键作用，但ceo影响可持续性的机制仍未得到充分了解。在中国背景下，当共产党员身份被视为一种由政治社会化塑造的高管属性时，ceo的共产主义意识形态如何影响可持续性结果仍不清楚。为了解决这一差距，本研究借鉴上层理论和管理自由裁量权文献，探讨了共产主义ceo如何通过创新途径将其意识形态转化为企业的可持续性绩效。利用2012 - 2021年对1633家中国企业的7645个观察结果，分析发现，共产主义ceo显著提高了环境绩效和社会绩效，而这种影响在一定程度上受到绿色、数字化和绿色-数字集成创新的中介作用。此外，CEO二元性通过扩大管理层自由裁量权加强了创新与企业可持续发展绩效之间的关系。本研究通过确定创新是一个关键的解释途径，打开了共产主义ceo意识形态与企业可持续发展之间的黑箱，并为在追求可持续绩效的过程中调整高管意识形态、领导权力和创新提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “How digital transformation facilitates ESG performance in heavy polluting enterprises: A panel fsQCA based on national big data comprehensive pilot zones” [Technological Forecasting & Social Change Volume 221, December 2025, 124366] “数字化转型如何促进重污染企业的ESG绩效：基于国家大数据综合试验区的面板fsQCA”的更正[技术预测与社会变革第221卷，2025年12月，124366]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124503

Li Jing , Li Qianqiang , Chen Yantai , An Qi

引用次数: 0

Who to collaborate: Exploring the role of knowledge overlap between inventors in innovation performance 与谁合作：探索发明者之间的知识重叠在创新绩效中的作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124483

Jisoo Hur , Seokhui Lee , Junseok Hwang , Keungoui Kim

This study investigates the implications of knowledge overlap between inventors on patent performance, focusing on the technological output, technological impact, and technological distinctiveness of inventions. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from the PATSTAT database, we analyze 3,352,202 inventor pairs from patents filed by US-headquartered publicly traded firms between 1980 and 2015. Our analysis reveals that while a higher degree of knowledge overlap between inventors typically increases the patent output, measured by the number of patents produced, it is associated with lower patent impact and lower patent distinctiveness in the firm's technological portfolio. Notably, the relationship between knowledge overlap and both patent impact and patent distinctiveness exhibits a curvilinear (U-shaped) pattern, suggesting that beyond a certain threshold, increased knowledge overlap can enhance the influence and distinctiveness of inventions. This study contributes to the existing literature by underscoring the importance of balancing knowledge diversity and shared expertise in fostering innovation.

本研究探讨发明人之间的知识重叠对专利绩效的影响，重点关注发明的技术产出、技术影响和技术独特性。利用PATSTAT数据库的综合数据集，我们分析了1980年至2015年间总部位于美国的上市公司申请的专利中的3,352,202对发明人。我们的分析表明，虽然发明人之间较高程度的知识重叠通常会增加专利产出（以产生的专利数量衡量），但它与企业技术组合中较低的专利影响和较低的专利独特性相关。值得注意的是，知识重叠与专利影响和专利独特性之间的关系呈现曲线（u型）模式，表明超过一定阈值，知识重叠的增加可以增强发明的影响力和独特性。本研究通过强调平衡知识多样性和共享专业知识在促进创新中的重要性，对现有文献做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Corporate governance for digital transformation: The role of ownership and the board of directors” [Technological forecasting & social change in-print] “数字化转型中的公司治理：所有权和董事会的角色”的勘误表[技术预测与社会变革]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124494

Nurit Nahum , Ulf Larsson Olaison , Timur Uman , Leona Achtenhagen

引用次数: 0

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