Technological Forecasting and Social Change最新文献_第8页

Corrigendum to “Enhancing supplier innovation capabilities through digital technology integration: A relational perspective” [Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 223 (February 2026) 124426] “通过数字技术集成提高供应商创新能力：关系视角”的勘误表[技术]。预测。Soc。更改223（2026年2月）124426]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124473

Umair Tanveer , Thinh Gia Hoang , Shamaila Ishaq , Muhammad Mustafa Kamal , Rekha Attri

引用次数: 0

Impact of relationship dynamics on policy reform for sustainable innovation in public healthcare in China: Social exchange theory perspective 关系动态对中国公共医疗可持续创新政策改革的影响：社会交换理论视角

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124500

Sheng Zheng , Mujahid Mohiuddin Babu , Alexandre Metreveli , Bidit Lal Dey , Dimitrios Koufopoulos

The Chinese government is dedicated to fostering sustainable innovation within the public healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors to safeguard public interests. However, current policies governing the pharmaceutical industry have inadequately addressed critical issues related to stakeholder dynamics and sustainable innovation performance. This study investigates how policy reform can enhance the dynamic relationships among stakeholders in China's public healthcare system, aiming to devise actionable and detailed tasks while minimizing conflicts to encourage sustainable innovation. This research presents the findings of in-depth interviews conducted with 50 participants from key stakeholders in China's public health sector, including government officials, hospital representatives, executives from state-owned pharmaceutical companies, and healthcare professionals. The findings offer valuable insights for practitioners, policymakers, and academics regarding the application of social exchange elements—such as power, trust, reputation, reciprocity, and commitment—in understanding the necessity of integrating relationship dynamics into policy design and reform within the supply chain network, all while protecting public interests. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the shortcomings of the existing policy framework and presents compelling arguments for reforms that actively involve key stakeholders in the public healthcare and pharmaceutical industries.

中国政府致力于促进公共医疗和医药领域的可持续创新，维护公共利益。然而，目前管理制药行业的政策没有充分解决与利益相关者动态和可持续创新绩效相关的关键问题。本研究旨在探讨政策改革如何增强中国公共医疗体系中利益相关者之间的动态关系，旨在制定可操作和详细的任务，同时最大限度地减少冲突，以鼓励可持续创新。本研究对中国公共卫生部门的50名主要利益相关者进行了深度访谈，包括政府官员、医院代表、国有制药公司高管和医疗保健专业人员。研究结果为实践者、政策制定者和学者提供了宝贵的见解，帮助他们理解在保护公共利益的同时，将社会交换要素（如权力、信任、声誉、互惠和承诺）应用到供应链网络内的政策设计和改革中去的必要性。此外，该研究还强调了现有政策框架的缺陷，并提出了令人信服的理由，要求公共医疗保健和制药行业的主要利益相关者积极参与改革。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of autonomous vehicles on intercity public transport within urban agglomerations: Exploring multi-layered heterogeneity and distance-based variations 自动驾驶汽车对城市群城际公共交通的影响：探索多层次异质性和基于距离的变化

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124507

Yali YUAN , Xiaobao YANG , Sixuan LI , Pengfei CUI , Manli YANG

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) offer distinct advantages in intercity travel compared to urban travel, including less interference from complex urban traffic environments, reduced driver fatigue during longer trips, and enhanced travel comfort. The widespread adoption of AVs is expected to reshape intercity travelers' mode choice behavior. This study develops a hybrid random parameter logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances (HRPLHMV) to assess the impact of AVs on intercity public transport. Using data from 803 respondents in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, the study examines how attitudes, travel characteristics, and socio-demographic attributes influence mode choices among AVs, trains, and buses across varying distances. Results indicate that incorporating attitudes and multi-layered heterogeneity improves model fit. Effort expectancy, monthly income, and age exhibit significant mean and variance heterogeneity as random parameters variables. Influential factors and their impacts vary with travel distance. A higher perceived risk of AVs leads intercity travelers to prefer buses for shorter trips and trains for longer journeys. For longer distances, leisure travelers show a growing preference for AVs over trains. This study provides deep insights into intercity travelers' mode choice behavior within urban agglomerations post-AV introduction, helping policymakers formulate refined and differentiated strategies.

与城市旅行相比，自动驾驶汽车在城际旅行中具有明显的优势，包括受复杂城市交通环境的干扰更少，在长途旅行中减少驾驶员疲劳，并提高旅行舒适度。自动驾驶汽车的广泛采用有望重塑城际旅行者的模式选择行为。本研究建立了均值和方差异质性的混合随机参数logit模型（HRPLHMV）来评估自动驾驶汽车对城际公共交通的影响。利用来自京津冀城市群803名受访者的数据，该研究考察了态度、出行特征和社会人口统计学属性如何影响不同距离的自动驾驶汽车、火车和公共汽车的模式选择。结果表明，考虑态度和多层异质性可以改善模型拟合。工作期望、月收入和年龄作为随机参数变量均表现出显著的均数和方差异质性。影响因素及其影响随行程距离的变化而变化。由于自动驾驶汽车的风险较高，城际旅行者在短途旅行中更喜欢公交车，而在长途旅行中更喜欢火车。对于长途旅行，休闲旅行者越来越倾向于选择自动驾驶汽车，而不是火车。本研究对引入自动驾驶汽车后城市群内城际旅客的出行模式选择行为提供了深入的洞察，有助于决策者制定细化和差异化的出行策略。

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引用次数: 0

Understanding barriers to agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from U.S. agribusiness firms 理解农业技术采用的障碍：来自美国农业综合企业的证据

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124448

Zubeyde Senturk Ulucak , Pathmanathan Sivashankar , Samir Huseynov , Recep Ulucak

This study investigates how economic, environmental, technical, political, and socio-cultural barriers shape innovation outcomes of openness, effort and success among US agribusiness firms. Drawing from perception-based survey data from agribusiness employees, the analysis employs a sequential modeling strategy combining ordered probit and triple hurdle probit estimation, complemented by tests of heterogeneity based on firm size and industry. The results reveal that environmental barriers are the most significant obstacle to innovation across all innovation stages, indicating regulatory and sustainability pressures can stimulate adaptive innovation. Economic barriers exhibit dual effect, reducing openness and effort but positively influencing innovation success once firms commit to adoption. Technical barriers hinder progress in specific contexts, especially for smaller firms and food related enterprises. Findings reveal heterogeneity across subsectors and firm sizes, highlighting that innovation in agribusiness often emerges as a strategic adaptation to constraints. From a policy perspective, interventions such as innovation subsidies, tax incentives for green technology, and inclusive financing mechanisms are essential to enable equitable and sustainable innovation adoption among firms with characteristics similar to those represented in this sample.

本研究探讨了经济、环境、技术、政治和社会文化障碍如何影响美国农业综合企业的开放、努力和成功的创新成果。从农业综合企业员工的基于感知的调查数据中，分析采用顺序建模策略，结合有序概率和三重障碍概率估计，并辅以基于公司规模和行业的异质性测试。结果表明，环境障碍是各阶段创新的最大障碍，表明监管压力和可持续性压力能够刺激适应性创新。经济壁垒表现出双重效应，一方面降低开放程度和努力程度，另一方面一旦企业承诺采用，又对创新成功产生积极影响。技术壁垒在特定情况下阻碍进步，特别是对较小的公司和与食品有关的企业。研究结果揭示了子行业和公司规模之间的异质性，突出表明农业综合企业的创新往往是对约束的战略适应。从政策角度来看，创新补贴、绿色技术税收激励和包容性融资机制等干预措施对于使具有与本样本相似特征的企业公平和可持续地采用创新至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “How digital transformation facilitates ESG performance in heavy polluting enterprises: A panel fsQCA based on national big data comprehensive pilot zones” [Technological Forecasting & Social Change Volume 221, December 2025, 124366] “数字化转型如何促进重污染企业的ESG绩效：基于国家大数据综合试验区的面板fsQCA”的更正[技术预测与社会变革第221卷，2025年12月，124366]

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124503

Li Jing , Li Qianqiang , Chen Yantai , An Qi

引用次数: 0

Advertising strategies for innovation capability sharing: A two-sided market analysis 创新能力共享的广告策略：一个双边市场分析

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124462

Longfei He , Xiao Zhang , Francisco Saldanha-da-Gama , Xiaohang Yue

In addition to pricing strategies, user-targeted advertising represents a key approach for innovation capability sharing platforms to enhance profitability. Incorporating cross-network externalities, this paper examines platform advertising investment and pricing decisions under both monopoly and competitive scenarios. Our findings indicate that platforms always charge users on the side with stronger cross-network externalities, while the decision regarding whether to charge or subsidize users on the side with weaker externalities depends on advertising sensitivity and platform differentiation. Social welfare is positively affected by cross-network externalities but negatively influenced by advertising costs. In scenarios with multi-homing suppliers and single-homing purchasers, we characterize the equilibrium advertising strategies for competing platforms, which are determined by the advertising cost coefficients for both platform sides. These strategies may lead to a prisoner's dilemma; we therefore propose a penalty mechanism to resolve it. Conversely, under single-homing suppliers and multi-homing purchasers, multiple Nash equilibria exist for advertising strategies, though Pareto optimality determines the equilibrium outcome. Finally, we find that platforms are more likely to encourage exclusive supplier contracts when competition is less intense, but these contracts reduce profits as competition intensifies.

除了定价策略，用户定向广告是创新能力共享平台提高盈利能力的关键途径。考虑到跨网络的外部性，本文研究了垄断和竞争两种情况下的平台广告投资和定价决策。我们的研究结果表明，平台总是对跨网络外部性较强的一侧用户收费，而对外部性较弱的一侧用户收费或补贴的决定取决于广告敏感性和平台差异化。社会福利受跨网络外部性的正向影响，而受广告成本的负向影响。在多家供应商和单家购买者的情况下，我们描述了竞争平台的均衡广告策略，这是由平台双方的广告成本系数决定的。这些策略可能导致囚徒困境；因此，我们建议建立一种惩罚机制来解决这一问题。相反，在单住房供应商和多住房购买者的情况下，广告策略存在多个纳什均衡，尽管帕累托最优决定了均衡结果。最后，我们发现，当竞争不那么激烈时，平台更有可能鼓励独家供应商合同，但随着竞争加剧，这些合同会减少利润。

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引用次数: 0

Communist CEOs and corporate sustainability: Unpacking the interplay of ideology, innovation, and power 共产主义ceo与企业可持续发展：揭示意识形态、创新和权力的相互作用

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124502

Xincheng Wang , Xuewei Zhang , Sujuan Zhang

CEOs play a critical role in shaping corporate sustainability, yet the mechanisms through which CEOs influence sustainability remain insufficiently understood. When Communist Party membership is considered as an executive attribute shaped by political socialization in the Chinese context, it remains unclear how CEOs' Communist ideology affects sustainability outcomes. To address this gap, this study, drawing on the upper echelons theory and managerial discretion literature, investigates how Communist CEOs translate their ideology into corporate sustainability performance through the pathways of innovation. Using 7645 observations with 1633 Chinese firms from 2012 to 2021, the analysis reveals that Communist CEOs significantly enhance environmental and social performance, and such effects are partly mediated by green, digital and integrated green-digital innovation. In addition, CEO duality strengthens the relationship between innovation and corporate sustainability performance by expanding managerial discretion. This study unpacks the black box between Communist CEOs' ideology and corporate sustainability by identifying innovation as a key explanatory pathway, and it offers implications for aligning executive ideology, leadership power, and innovation in the pursuit of sustainability performance.

ceo在塑造企业可持续性方面发挥着关键作用，但ceo影响可持续性的机制仍未得到充分了解。在中国背景下，当共产党员身份被视为一种由政治社会化塑造的高管属性时，ceo的共产主义意识形态如何影响可持续性结果仍不清楚。为了解决这一差距，本研究借鉴上层理论和管理自由裁量权文献，探讨了共产主义ceo如何通过创新途径将其意识形态转化为企业的可持续性绩效。利用2012 - 2021年对1633家中国企业的7645个观察结果，分析发现，共产主义ceo显著提高了环境绩效和社会绩效，而这种影响在一定程度上受到绿色、数字化和绿色-数字集成创新的中介作用。此外，CEO二元性通过扩大管理层自由裁量权加强了创新与企业可持续发展绩效之间的关系。本研究通过确定创新是一个关键的解释途径，打开了共产主义ceo意识形态与企业可持续发展之间的黑箱，并为在追求可持续绩效的过程中调整高管意识形态、领导权力和创新提供了启示。

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引用次数: 0

How generative AI adoption affects supply chain resilience: An operations and supply chain management perspective 生成式人工智能的采用如何影响供应链弹性：从运营和供应链管理的角度

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124446

Jiguang Guo , Fu Jia , Lujie Chen

Generative AI drives profound societal transformations, and there is an urgent need to explore its potential in enhancing business resilience and sustainability. However, its influence on supply chain resilience remains empirically underexplored. Drawing on the operations and supply chain management (OSCM) perspective, this research aims to examine how generative AI improves or impedes supply chain resilience, while exploring the moderating effects of operational capability and supply chain concentration. Using panel data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2017 to 2022, we employ fixed-effects models and a series of robustness checks to test the predictions. We discover that firms' generative AI enhances their supply chain resilience, and this effect is more pronounced among high-tech companies. Drawing on dynamic capability theory, this research sheds new light on the positive effect of operational capability (i.e., operational efficiency and operational slack), and the negative effect of supply chain concentration (i.e., customer concentration and supplier concentration) in shaping the impact of generative AI adoption on supply chain resilience. This study provides novel empirical evidence for the association between generative AI adoption and supply chain resilience and identifies key OSCM-related contingency factors in this relationship.

生成式人工智能推动了深刻的社会变革，迫切需要探索其在增强商业弹性和可持续性方面的潜力。然而，其对供应链弹性的影响仍未得到实证研究。从运营和供应链管理（OSCM）的角度出发，本研究旨在研究生成式人工智能如何提高或阻碍供应链弹性，同时探索运营能力和供应链集中度的调节作用。本文利用2017 - 2022年中国a股上市公司的面板数据，采用固定效应模型和一系列稳健性检验对预测结果进行检验。我们发现，企业的生成式人工智能增强了其供应链弹性，这种效应在高科技公司中更为明显。借助动态能力理论，本研究揭示了运营能力（即运营效率和运营松弛）和供应链集中度（即客户集中度和供应商集中度）在形成生成式人工智能采用对供应链弹性的影响方面的积极影响。本研究为生成式人工智能采用与供应链弹性之间的关系提供了新的经验证据，并确定了这种关系中与oscm相关的关键偶然性因素。

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引用次数: 0

New energy infrastructure and household energy poverty: Insights from ultra-high voltage technology 新能源基础设施与家庭能源贫困：来自超高压技术的见解

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124492

Zhiqiang Cheng, Jinyang Cai

Energy poverty threatens the health and survival of hundreds of millions of people, particularly in developing countries. Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and focusing on Ultra-High Voltage, this study employs a difference-in-differences methodology to explore the potential of long-distance energy infrastructure to reduce household energy poverty. The results indicate that Ultra-High Voltage significantly reduces the probability of households falling into energy poverty. Its does so by improving household electricity accessibility and stability of supply, promoting household energy transition to electricity, and increasing household income. These effects are especially pronounced in rural areas, among higher-income households, and in regions characterized by unstable grids and high transfer capacity. Moreover, Ultra-High Voltage mitigates energy poverty arising from both heating and cooling demands. Finally, Ultra-High Voltage enhances the poverty-reduction impact of other transregional energy projects and contributes to national energy security. These findings offer guidance for policymakers seeking to deploy Ultra-High Voltage technology in support of sustainable development.

能源贫困威胁到数亿人的健康和生存，特别是在发展中国家。本研究使用来自中国家庭面板研究的数据，并以超高压为重点，采用差异中的差异方法来探索远距离能源基础设施减少家庭能源贫困的潜力。结果表明，超高压显著降低了家庭陷入能源贫困的可能性。它通过改善家庭电力可及性和供应稳定性，促进家庭能源向电力过渡，增加家庭收入来实现这一目标。这些影响在农村地区、高收入家庭以及电网不稳定和输电能力高的地区尤为明显。此外，超高压缓解了因供暖和制冷需求而产生的能源贫困。最后，特高压项目增强了其他跨区域能源项目的减贫效果，有助于国家能源安全。这些发现为寻求部署超高压技术以支持可持续发展的政策制定者提供了指导。

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引用次数: 0

Diverse impacts of AI investments on productivity gains: Effects of industry and innovation characteristics 人工智能投资对生产率提高的不同影响：产业和创新特征的影响

IF 13.3 1区管理学 Q1 BUSINESS

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124471

Gangmin Park , Songhee Kang , Sangyoon Yi , Junyoun Kim

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes a key driver of innovation, its role in boosting productivity has gained growing attention. Yet most existing evidence links AI adoption to productivity at the occupation or national level; firm-level studies remain scarce. Using U.S. job-posting data for 2014–2023, we examine how AI investment relates to firm Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Our results show that AI investment raises firm-level TFP, but unevenly. The impact is industry-specific, reflecting the varying availability of the necessary complementary assets: Manufacturing captures the largest gains, while in services the benefits are concentrated in information, utilities & construction, education & health, and public administration. Productivity gains are not systematically related to a firm's AI-exposure score—a measure of the potential for its required job skills to be exposed to AI—although early adopters receive a slight additional boost. AI creates value through both exploration and exploitation, but the estimated productivity returns are stronger for exploitative deployments. These findings highlight the need for sector-specific, purpose-built AI strategies. By moving beyond the notion of AI as a universal productivity engine, our study underscores the importance of tailoring AI investment to the distinctive challenges and dynamics of each firm.

随着人工智能（AI）成为创新的关键驱动力，其在提高生产力方面的作用越来越受到关注。然而，大多数现有证据都将人工智能的采用与职业或国家层面的生产力联系起来；公司层面的研究仍然很少。利用美国2014-2023年的招聘数据，我们研究了人工智能投资与企业全要素生产率（TFP）的关系。我们的研究结果表明，人工智能投资提高了企业层面的全要素生产率，但不是均匀的。这种影响是特定行业的，反映了必要的互补资产的不同可用性：制造业获得了最大的收益，而在服务业，收益集中在信息、公用事业和建筑、教育和卫生以及公共管理方面。生产力的提高与公司的人工智能暴露得分没有系统的关系，尽管早期采用者会得到轻微的额外提升。人工智能暴露得分是衡量公司所需的工作技能接触人工智能的潜力的指标。人工智能通过勘探和开发创造价值，但开发部署的估计生产力回报更强。这些发现突出表明，需要针对特定行业制定专门的人工智能战略。通过超越人工智能作为通用生产力引擎的概念，我们的研究强调了根据每家公司的独特挑战和动态调整人工智能投资的重要性。

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引用次数: 0