Pub Date : 2024-12-30DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106915
Wenyuan Hua
This paper examines the distributional consequences of a poignant example of the principal-agent problem in China: local officials and the public (i.e. the agents) establish “shell cooperatives” that only exist in name at the urging of the central government (i.e. the principal). Using a novel data on the county-level shell cooperatives from the State Administration for Industry and Commerce of China, we investigate the effects of the shell cooperative problem on local poverty alleviation. Our results suggest that rural households in counties that were exposed to a more severe shell cooperative problem were associated with a reduced income per capita, an increased income gap, and a lower probability of staying out of poverty. We also find supportive evidence for the plausible mechanisms behind the distributional effects of the shell cooperative problem: decreased subsidy availability, restricted financial access, reduced public goods provision and undermined social trust. Overall, our study offers a novel perspective to shed light on the distributional consequences of the principal-agent problem.
{"title":"On the distributional effects of principal-agent problems: Evidence from China’s shell farmer cooperatives","authors":"Wenyuan Hua","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the distributional consequences of a poignant example of the principal-agent problem in China: local officials and the public (i.e. the agents) establish “shell cooperatives” that only exist in name at the urging of the central government (i.e. the principal). Using a novel data on the county-level shell cooperatives from the State Administration for Industry and Commerce of China, we investigate the effects of the shell cooperative problem on local poverty alleviation. Our results suggest that rural households in counties that were exposed to a more severe shell cooperative problem were associated with a reduced income per capita, an increased income gap, and a lower probability of staying out of poverty. We also find supportive evidence for the plausible mechanisms behind the distributional effects of the shell cooperative problem: decreased subsidy availability, restricted financial access, reduced public goods provision and undermined social trust. Overall, our study offers a novel perspective to shed light on the distributional consequences of the principal-agent problem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106915"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-28DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106889
Haroon Bhorat, Timothy Köhler
This paper considers the labour market effects of an unconditional cash transfer targeted at the unemployed in a context of extreme unemployment. Using a staggered, heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences design applied to panel labour force survey data, we estimate the contemporaneous and dynamic effects of a new transfer introduced in South Africa, the Social Relief of Distress grant, the first labour market-linked transfer in the country’s history. We find that, on average, receipt has positive effects on the probabilities of job search, trying to start a business, and employment. The latter effects are driven by effects on wage and informal sector employment. We show that employment effects are positive for the unemployed who are either actively searching for work or trying to start a business, as well as for those who are not, but they are substantially larger for the former. This indicates that the transfer both encourages and improves the efficiency of labour market activity by addressing labour market constraints, but highlights the importance of active labour market engagement for improving employment prospects through the transfer. However, these employment effects are non-linear, in that they are evident in the short-term but quickly become and remain null in the longer-term. These results suggest that cash transfers can help reduce labour market constraints but such gains need not translate into better longer-term employment prospects in high-unemployment contexts.
{"title":"The labour market effects of cash transfers to the unemployed: Evidence from South Africa","authors":"Haroon Bhorat, Timothy Köhler","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106889","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106889","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper considers the labour market effects of an unconditional cash transfer targeted at the unemployed in a context of extreme unemployment. Using a staggered, heterogeneity-robust difference-in-differences design applied to panel labour force survey data, we estimate the contemporaneous and dynamic effects of a new transfer introduced in South Africa, the Social Relief of Distress grant, the first labour market-linked transfer in the country’s history. We find that, on average, receipt has positive effects on the probabilities of job search, trying to start a business, and employment. The latter effects are driven by effects on wage and informal sector employment. We show that employment effects are positive for the unemployed who are either actively searching for work or trying to start a business, as well as for those who are not, but they are substantially larger for the former. This indicates that the transfer both encourages and improves the efficiency of labour market activity by addressing labour market constraints, but highlights the importance of active labour market engagement for improving employment prospects through the transfer. However, these employment effects are non-linear, in that they are evident in the short-term but quickly become and remain null in the longer-term. These results suggest that cash transfers can help reduce labour market constraints but such gains need not translate into better longer-term employment prospects in high-unemployment contexts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106889"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168716","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-26DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106910
Saul Estrin , Tomasz Mickiewicz , Tolu Olarewaju
Strong kinship structures correspond to important informal institutions that provide some social insurance to businesses in developing economies. More specifically, we posit that, during an economic crisis, businesses located in areas characterised by an in-group supporting marriage tradition (cousin marriage) will experience weaker negative effects on their profitability. We speculate that the cousin marriage tradition is associated with dense structures of kinship-based contacts between individuals, which creates the basis for effective social sanctions that support the cooperation needed during crises. Such structures may enhance the resilience of the local social systems; and local businesses may draw on local, socially available resources, which will attenuate the impact of crises on their financial performance. We utilise the data from the 2018–2019 Nigeria Living Standard Survey and find support for our hypotheses.
{"title":"The cousin marriage tradition and performance of businesses during the economic crises in Nigeria","authors":"Saul Estrin , Tomasz Mickiewicz , Tolu Olarewaju","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106910","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Strong kinship structures correspond to important informal institutions that provide some social insurance to businesses in developing economies. More specifically, we posit that, during an economic crisis, businesses located in areas characterised by an in-group supporting marriage tradition (cousin marriage) will experience weaker negative effects on their profitability. We speculate that the cousin marriage tradition is associated with dense structures of kinship-based contacts between individuals, which creates the basis for effective social sanctions that support the cooperation needed during crises. Such structures may enhance the resilience of the local social systems; and local businesses may draw on local, socially available resources, which will attenuate the impact of crises on their financial performance. We utilise the data from the 2018–2019 Nigeria Living Standard Survey and find support for our hypotheses.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106910"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-26DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106849
Marco Ranaldi
This article studies the global distributions of capital and labor incomes among individuals in 2000 and 2016. By constructing a novel database covering approximately 80% of the global output and 60% of the world population, two major findings stand out. First, the world underwent an important process of capitalization. The share of world individuals with positive capital income rose from 20% to 32%. Second, the global middle class benefited the most, in relative terms, from such a capitalization process, with China being the main driver of this global trend. The findings of this paper are robust to changes in the income definition, top-income and functional income distribution adjustments. The global composition of capital and labor incomes is more equal today than it was twenty years ago.
{"title":"Global Distributions of Capital and Labor Incomes","authors":"Marco Ranaldi","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106849","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106849","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article studies the global distributions of capital and labor incomes among individuals in 2000 and 2016. By constructing a novel database covering approximately 80% of the global output and 60% of the world population, two major findings stand out. First, the world underwent an important process of capitalization. The share of world individuals with positive capital income rose from 20% to 32%. Second, the global middle class benefited the most, in relative terms, from such a capitalization process, with China being the main driver of this global trend. The findings of this paper are robust to changes in the income definition, top-income and functional income distribution adjustments. The global composition of capital and labor incomes is more equal today than it was twenty years ago.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106849"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168764","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106848
Erin McCandless
Societal demands for more politically and socio-economically inclusive social contracts are growing globally. In Tunisia, despite a celebrated highly inclusive political transition process, the country was back on what many cite as an authoritarian path one decade on, with strong societal support. As analysts have observed, the expected and hoped-for inclusive socio-economic outcomes did not sufficiently or expediently follow, and societal buy-in into the transition process unraveled. While such democratic reversals are not uncommon, and transitions are notoriously neither linear nor smooth, the Tunisia case offers important, nuanced insights into questions of how inclusion functions as a driver of change in social contracts, what types of inclusion matter to people at different stages of a transition process, and the challenges and potential entry points for achieving more sustained and transformative outcomes. Drawing from interdisciplinary literatures to tackle this complex, multi-dimensional topic, an analytical framing is developed to assess inclusion in processes (primarily political and civil) and outcomes (political, civil, and especially socio-economic) driving change in Tunisia’s social contract, and the nature and sustainability of change. Findings reveal how and why inclusive outcomes (and related, desired large-scale shifts in social contracts) necessitate structural, transformative measures and addressing of core grievances – in this case, grievances that drove Tunisia’s revolution.
These findings offer nuanced evidence and theoretical insights, demonstrating how societal expectations of inclusion encompass both process-oriented participation and outcome-oriented deliverables, with the latter influencing social contract stability and legitimacy. At a time when traditional assumptions about social contracts are being challenged globally, understanding how societies evaluate and potentially reshape these fundamental state-society bargains has profound implications for scholars of development, democratization, social change and peace, particularly regarding the relationship between political transformation and socio-economic inclusion.
{"title":"Inclusion and social contracts in Tunisia: Navigating the complexities of political and socio-economic transformation","authors":"Erin McCandless","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106848","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106848","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Societal demands for more politically and socio-economically inclusive social contracts are growing globally. In Tunisia, despite a celebrated highly inclusive political transition process, the country was back on what many cite as an authoritarian path one decade on, with strong societal support. As analysts have observed, the expected and hoped-for inclusive socio-economic outcomes did not sufficiently or expediently follow, and societal buy-in into the transition process unraveled. While such democratic reversals are not uncommon, and transitions are notoriously neither linear nor smooth, the Tunisia case offers important, nuanced insights into questions of how inclusion functions as a driver of change in social contracts, what types of inclusion matter to people at different stages of a transition process, and the challenges and potential entry points for achieving more sustained and transformative outcomes. Drawing from interdisciplinary literatures to tackle this complex, multi-dimensional topic, an analytical framing is developed to assess inclusion in processes (primarily political and civil) and outcomes (political, civil, and especially socio-economic) driving change in Tunisia’s social contract, and the nature and sustainability of change. Findings reveal how and why inclusive outcomes (and related, desired large-scale shifts in social contracts) necessitate structural, transformative measures and addressing of core grievances – in this case, grievances that drove Tunisia’s revolution.</div><div>These findings offer nuanced evidence and theoretical insights, demonstrating how societal expectations of inclusion encompass both process-oriented participation and outcome-oriented deliverables, with the latter influencing social contract stability and legitimacy. At a time when traditional assumptions about social contracts are being challenged globally, understanding how societies evaluate and potentially reshape these fundamental state-society bargains has profound implications for scholars of development, democratization, social change and peace, particularly regarding the relationship between political transformation and socio-economic inclusion.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106848"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106877
Humaira Chowdhury , Kamini Gupta
Prior research has discussed a number of barriers that hinder Indian women’s participation in the workforce, especially outside their homes. We build on this research to explore how women use their agency to creatively negotiate with these barriers to access workplaces outside their home, as well as the non-wage benefits and meaning they associate with it. We use a qualitative methodology, privileging the voices of women workers themselves, to understand how women artisans from low-income households in Kashmir navigated structural barriers such as demands of respectability, unpaid care work and restricted mobility, to make work choices. We found that women used a specific set of resources rooted in space and time to access paid work at weaving centers outside their home. In addition, they exercised agency in remaking the workplace such that it had the right ‘mahaul’ (environment) which conformed with ideals of feminine modesty and respectability; and crafted ‘in-between’ workplaces that blended aspects of both the ‘home’ and the ‘outside’, consistent with their need for flexibility and mobility restrictions. Our study revealed that these ‘in-between’ workplaces, in turn, provided a ‘sanctuary’ like space for women weavers, which not only helped them to overcome financial precarity, but also, emotional precarity. These findings contribute to the literature on women and paid work in India by challenging the binary of ‘home-based’ and ‘outside’ to make room for novel articulations about ‘in-between’ spaces of work; and by emphasising the benefits of locational embeddedness and an ‘occupational community’ in the context of immobility in Kashmir.
{"title":"Crafting work and workspaces: A qualitative study of the meaning of work for women in the weaving sector in Kashmir","authors":"Humaira Chowdhury , Kamini Gupta","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106877","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106877","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Prior research has discussed a number of barriers that hinder Indian women’s participation in the workforce, especially outside their homes. We build on this research to explore how women use their agency to creatively negotiate with these barriers to access workplaces outside their home, as well as the non-wage benefits and meaning they associate with it. We use a qualitative methodology, privileging the voices of women workers themselves, to understand how women artisans from low-income households in Kashmir navigated structural barriers such as demands of respectability, unpaid care work and restricted mobility, to make work choices. We found that women used a specific set of resources rooted in space and time to access paid work at weaving centers outside their home. In addition, they exercised agency in remaking the workplace such that it had the right ‘mahaul’ (environment) which conformed with ideals of feminine modesty and respectability; and crafted ‘in-between’ workplaces that blended aspects of both the ‘home’ and the ‘outside’, consistent with their need for flexibility and mobility restrictions. Our study revealed that these ‘in-between’ workplaces, in turn, provided a ‘sanctuary’ like space for women weavers, which not only helped them to overcome financial precarity, but also, emotional precarity. These findings contribute to the literature on women and paid work in India by challenging the binary of ‘home-based’ and ‘outside’ to make room for novel articulations about ‘in-between’ spaces of work; and by emphasising the benefits of locational embeddedness and an ‘occupational community’ in the context of immobility in Kashmir.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106877"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168011","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-21DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106902
Mohammad Daud Hamidi , Marco J. Haenssgen , H.Chris Greenwell
Access to clean drinking water remains a major challenge in low- and middle-income countries, causing premature death from waterborne diseases, especially in water-insecure settings such as Afghanistan. While technologies and solutions for household-level water treatment exist, models to guide behaviour change for their adoption tend to stress psychological dimensions of behaviour with relatively little grounding in local expressions and contextual drivers of households’ water treatment behaviour in low- and middle-income countries.
Speaking to this challenge, our study explores factors influencing household water treatment in peri-urban Kabul, using the COM-B model (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation – Behaviour) as a guiding framework for analysis. We conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposive (maximally diverse) sample of 68 participants across two Kabul neighbourhoods to inform the framework. The data was collected from May to July 2021.
Our qualitative findings cover themes including water realities, common water storage and treatment practices, the process of navigating and negotiating water treatment, and discontinuities therein. Among others, this shows that residents’ everyday experiences with water are shaped by sensory quality indicators like smell and turbidity, but also illness experiences due to limited formal water information. The complex assemblage of factors shaping households’ navigation and negotiation of water treatment options included gender roles, household economics, technology availability, efficacy perceptions, and competing priorities. In addition, our qualitative data documents how the emergency-focused approach to water security by NGOs contributed occasionally to scepticism, trust erosion, and discontinuities in household water treatment methods.
Our study challenges the literature’s emphasis on psychological dimensions of water behaviour as similarly salient contextual factors include social dynamics, infrastructure, electricity disruptions, and the physical environment. We recommend that behaviourally-informed interventions should be tailored to the realities of underserved communities, for example by increasing community involvement, targeting affordable technologies resilient to disruptions, and addressing contextual barriers like infrastructure limitations.
{"title":"Exploring the determinants of household water treatment in Kabul: A COM-B model perspective in a low-income context","authors":"Mohammad Daud Hamidi , Marco J. Haenssgen , H.Chris Greenwell","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106902","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Access to clean drinking water remains a major challenge in low- and middle-income countries, causing premature death from waterborne diseases, especially in water-insecure settings such as Afghanistan. While technologies and solutions for household-level water treatment exist, models to guide behaviour change for their adoption tend to stress psychological dimensions of behaviour with relatively little grounding in local expressions and contextual drivers of households’ water treatment behaviour in low- and middle-income countries.</div><div>Speaking to this challenge, our study explores factors influencing household water treatment in <em>peri</em>-urban Kabul, using the COM-B model (Capability, Opportunity, Motivation – Behaviour) as a guiding framework for analysis. We conducted semi-structured interviews with a purposive (maximally diverse) sample of 68 participants across two Kabul neighbourhoods to inform the framework. The data was collected from May to July 2021.</div><div>Our qualitative findings cover themes including water realities, common water storage and treatment practices, the process of navigating and negotiating water treatment, and discontinuities therein. Among others, this shows that residents’ everyday experiences with water are shaped by sensory quality indicators like smell and turbidity, but also illness experiences due to limited formal water information. The complex assemblage of factors shaping households’ navigation and negotiation of water treatment options included gender roles, household economics, technology availability, efficacy perceptions, and competing priorities. In addition, our qualitative data documents how the emergency-focused approach to water security by NGOs contributed occasionally to scepticism, trust erosion, and discontinuities in household water treatment methods.</div><div>Our study challenges the literature’s emphasis on psychological dimensions of water behaviour as similarly salient contextual factors include social dynamics, infrastructure, electricity disruptions, and the physical environment. We recommend that behaviourally-informed interventions should be tailored to the realities of underserved communities, for example by increasing community involvement, targeting affordable technologies resilient to disruptions, and addressing contextual barriers like infrastructure limitations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106902"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106904
Qian Huang, Ziang Fan
Most existing studies have focused on the impacts of childbearing decisions and policies on female labor market outcomes, overlooking their effects on firms’ hiring. Over the past decade, China has gradually relaxed its fertility policies. This paper examines the effects of fertility policy relaxation (FPR) on hiring decisions in Chinese firms. We develop a theoretical model integrating fertility intentions and firms’ employment forms. Subsequently, we investigate the impact of the FPR on the employment term structure of firms using a Difference-in-Differences method. We find that the FPR results in a short-term employment trend for female employees eligible for a second child. This effect is particularly pronounced among low-skilled women, those without sons, and those employed in large, labor-intensive firms. In terms of the potential mechanisms, the FPR increases both the quasi-fixed cost and total cost associated with hiring these employees, reduces their labor productivity, and makes firms less inclined to offer fixed wages. Our study highlights a policy conflict between encouraging fertility and improving women’s employment stability. Giving the declining labor force trends, it is crucial to incentivize firms to rehire and retrain women who have taken time off for childbirth, which requires further policy design.
{"title":"Relaxation of fertility policy and firm’s short-term hiring of female employees: Evidence from China","authors":"Qian Huang, Ziang Fan","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106904","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106904","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most existing studies have focused on the impacts of childbearing decisions and policies on female labor market outcomes, overlooking their effects on firms’ hiring. Over the past decade, China has gradually relaxed its fertility policies. This paper examines the effects of fertility policy relaxation (FPR) on hiring decisions in Chinese firms. We develop a theoretical model integrating fertility intentions and firms’ employment forms. Subsequently, we investigate the impact of the FPR on the employment term structure of firms using a Difference-in-Differences method. We find that the FPR results in a short-term employment trend for female employees eligible for a second child. This effect is particularly pronounced among low-skilled women, those without sons, and those employed in large, labor-intensive firms. In terms of the potential mechanisms, the FPR increases both the quasi-fixed cost and total cost associated with hiring these employees, reduces their labor productivity, and makes firms less inclined to offer fixed wages. Our study highlights a policy conflict between encouraging fertility and improving women’s employment stability. Giving the declining labor force trends, it is crucial to incentivize firms to rehire and retrain women who have taken time off for childbirth, which requires further policy design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106904"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-20DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106784
Julia Smith Coyoli , Candelaria Garay
What accounts for subnational variation in the provision of social services and welfare outcomes? Taking inspiration from the literature explaining national-level variation, we look to the subnational political regime to help understand welfare disparities. Broadly consistent with the argument at the national level, we find that more democratic subnational units are more welfare-enhancing. Through a quantitative analysis of Argentine provinces, which show wide variation in regime type as well as welfare provision and outcomes, we find that democratic provinces have better welfare outcomes, measured as the infant mortality rate. By disaggregating different aspects of the regime, we show the effect is driven by permissive rules regarding gubernatorial term limits. We also find that, while the political regime is not systematically related to the provision of healthcare services, protest does have a positive effect on health service delivery, regardless of the subnational regime.
{"title":"Subnational democracy, protest, and welfare","authors":"Julia Smith Coyoli , Candelaria Garay","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106784","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106784","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>What accounts for subnational variation in the provision of social services and welfare outcomes? Taking inspiration from the literature explaining national-level variation, we look to the subnational political regime to help understand welfare disparities. Broadly consistent with the argument at the national level, we find that more democratic subnational units are more welfare-enhancing. Through a quantitative analysis of Argentine provinces, which show wide variation in regime type as well as welfare provision and outcomes, we find that democratic provinces have better welfare outcomes, measured as the infant mortality rate. By disaggregating different aspects of the regime, we show the effect is driven by permissive rules regarding gubernatorial term limits. We also find that, while the political regime is not systematically related to the provision of healthcare services, protest does have a positive effect on health service delivery, regardless of the subnational regime.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106784"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168769","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-12-19DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106859
Claire Brunel , Maggie Y. Liu
When weather shocks under global warming affect productivity in climate-sensitive sectors, migration represents a potential adaptation mechanism. We exploit exogenous variation in temperature and precipitation across Brazil and examine the response in state-to-state migration flows between 1981 and 2010. Accounting for time-varying migration costs using a novel road dataset constructed by digitizing historical maps, and addressing the endogeneity of the roads network, we find strong evidence that a reduction in travel cost is associated with larger migrant flows. We also find suggestive evidence of climate-induced poverty trap −-- states with warming temperatures exhibit a smaller increase in out-migration, particularly among individuals who were likely employed in the agricultural sector at their origin states. Interestingly, our results imply that migrants are generally not sensitive to the destination weather conditions, with the exception for migrants working in agriculture at the destination.
{"title":"Out of the Frying Pan: Weather shocks and internal migration in Brazil","authors":"Claire Brunel , Maggie Y. Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106859","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106859","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>When weather shocks under global warming affect productivity in climate-sensitive sectors, migration represents a potential adaptation mechanism. We exploit exogenous variation in temperature and precipitation across Brazil and examine the response in state-to-state migration flows between 1981 and 2010. Accounting for time-varying migration costs using a novel road dataset constructed by digitizing historical maps, and addressing the endogeneity of the roads network, we find strong evidence that a reduction in travel cost is associated with larger migrant flows. We also find suggestive evidence of climate-induced poverty trap −-- states with warming temperatures exhibit a smaller increase in out-migration, particularly among individuals who were likely employed in the agricultural sector at their origin states. Interestingly, our results imply that migrants are generally not sensitive to the destination weather conditions, with the exception for migrants working in agriculture at the destination.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"188 ","pages":"Article 106859"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2024-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143168773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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