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Does institutional design matter? Constitutional regime types and party system closure in Asia 制度设计重要吗？亚洲宪政体制类型与政党制度封闭

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107217

Don S. Lee , Fernando Casal Bértoa

Constitutional regime types matter for democratic consolidation. However, how these institutional factors shape party system development has been rarely studied. Applying Casal Bértoa and Enyedi (2016, 2021) conceptualization and operationalization of party system institutionalization (PSI) – party system closure – as consequences, and using a mixed-methods approach, we provide the mechanisms of why institutional characteristics denoting presidential regimes have a detrimental impact on PSI. Our analysis of an original dataset of all Asian party systems, which spans more than 70 years from the aftermath of the World War II to the end of 2020, shows that (1) direct presidential elections, compared to regimes with no such elections, (2) presidentialism vis-à-vis parliamentary and semi-presidential regimes, and (3) a cabinet’s collective responsibility to the president, as opposed to such responsibility solely to the legislature, all have statistically significant and negative effects on PSI. Our case-study of Indonesia, which changed from parliamentarism to presidentialism in 2004, confirms all these three points. Given the greater chance of the rise of populist outsiders in presidential and president-parliamentary semi-presidential regimes, our findings that party systems are more inchoate and parties may become weaker in properly playing a gatekeeping role in these regimes are particularly concerning.

宪政体制类型对民主巩固至关重要。然而，这些制度因素如何影响政党制度的发展却鲜有研究。运用Casal b rtoa和Enyedi（2016, 2021）对政党制度制度化（PSI）的概念化和操作化——政党制度关闭——作为结果，并使用混合方法，我们提供了代表总统制的制度特征对PSI产生有害影响的机制。我们对所有亚洲政党制度的原始数据集（从第二次世界大战后到2020年底的70多年）进行了分析，结果表明：(1)与没有这种选举的政权相比，总统直接选举；(2)总统制与-à-vis议会制和半总统制政权相比；(3)内阁对总统集体负责，而不是只对立法机关负责。对PSI均有显著的负向影响。我们对2004年从议会制转变为总统制的印度尼西亚的案例研究证实了以上三点。鉴于在总统制和总统-议会半总统制政权中民粹主义局外人崛起的可能性更大，我们的研究发现，政党制度更加不成熟，政党在这些政权中适当发挥把关作用可能会变得更弱，这尤其令人担忧。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of climate change adaptation on welfare and child nutrition of farm households in rural Ethiopia: A panel data analysis 气候变化适应对埃塞俄比亚农村农户福利和儿童营养的影响：面板数据分析

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107269

Taye T. Fisiha , John McPeak

This study evaluates the potential impact of adopting climate change adaptation practices on the welfare and child nutrition of farm households in Ethiopia. The study uses a balanced panel of household-level data from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey of rural households conducted in 2013/2014 and again in 2015/2016. For household welfare, measures of real consumption expenditure per adult equivalent and a food shortage indicator are used. For child nutrition outcomes, weights for height and body mass index are considered. The potential selection bias introduced by including adoption decisions of climate change adaptation strategies and evaluating how these strategies impact household and child outcomes is addressed by applying a panel data multinomial endogenous switching regression model. The climate change adaptation practice sets considered are categorized as soil and water conservation (SW), crop rotation (CR), and improved inputs (IM), at times alone and also in various combinations. We present findings on what household characteristics make it more or less likely that households will adopt a particular adaptation practice set strategy. The results demonstrate that in many cases, adoption of climate change adaptation practices set is positively associated with improved household welfare and child nutrition outcomes. In addition we find that larger positive impacts are observed when farmers combine multiple complementary practice sets. Our findings imply that policies should encourage smallholder farmers to adopt multiple climate change adaptation practice sets to improve the status of households’ welfare and children’s nutrition.

本研究评估了采取气候变化适应措施对埃塞俄比亚农户福利和儿童营养的潜在影响。该研究使用了2013/2014年和2015/2016年进行的埃塞俄比亚农村家庭社会经济调查的家庭数据均衡面板。在家庭福利方面，使用的是人均实际消费支出和粮食短缺指标。对于儿童营养结果，考虑了身高和身体质量指数的重量。采用面板数据多项内生转换回归模型解决了包括气候变化适应策略的采用决策以及评估这些策略如何影响家庭和儿童结果所引入的潜在选择偏差。考虑的气候变化适应实践集分为水土保持（SW）、作物轮作（CR）和改良投入（IM），有时单独使用，有时也以各种组合使用。我们提出了关于哪些家庭特征使家庭更有可能或更少地采用特定适应实践集策略的研究结果。结果表明，在许多情况下，采用气候变化适应做法与改善家庭福利和儿童营养状况呈正相关。此外，我们发现当农民结合多个互补的实践集时，观察到更大的积极影响。我们的研究结果表明，政策应鼓励小农采取多种气候变化适应实践，以改善家庭福利和儿童营养状况。

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引用次数: 0

Populism and global infrastructure investment 民粹主义和全球基础设施投资

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107282

Lulu Pan , Eddie Chi-Man Hui , Jianfu Shen

Populism has surged globally amid increasing globalization and political polarization. This study examines the divergent effects of left-wing and right-wing populist governments on infrastructure investment. Using panel data from 59 countries between 1990 and 2019, we find that left-wing populist governments significantly reduce infrastructure investment, while right-wing populist governments do not exhibit a similar impact. Mechanism analysis reveals that left-wing populist governments impair infrastructure investment by weakening legal institutions and deteriorating market governance institutions, whereas right-wing populist governments do not have such effects. Furthermore, the negative effects of left populism are particularly pronounced in three types of countries: those with multi-chamber parliamentary systems, those classified as low-income economies, and those with higher debt-to-GDP ratios. This research enriches the understanding of the economic consequences of populism and the lasting impacts of populist policies on infrastructure development, and contributes to the ongoing debate on the complex relationship between populism and economic outcomes.

随着全球化和政治两极化的加剧，民粹主义在全球范围内迅速蔓延。本研究考察了左翼和右翼民粹主义政府对基础设施投资的不同影响。利用1990年至2019年来自59个国家的面板数据，我们发现左翼民粹主义政府显著减少了基础设施投资，而右翼民粹主义政府则没有表现出类似的影响。机制分析表明，左翼民粹主义政府通过弱化法律制度和恶化市场治理制度来损害基础设施投资，而右翼民粹主义政府则没有这种影响。此外，左翼民粹主义的负面影响在三种类型的国家尤为明显：多议会制国家、低收入经济体和债务与gdp之比较高的国家。本研究丰富了对民粹主义的经济后果和民粹主义政策对基础设施发展的持久影响的理解，并有助于对民粹主义与经济结果之间复杂关系的持续辩论。

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引用次数: 0

Genocide, women’s empowerment, and intergenerational transmission of violent attitudes 种族灭绝、赋予妇女权力和暴力态度的代际传递

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107266

Daniel Kammer , Alina Greiner-Filsinger

In this paper, we explore how mass violence shapes attitudes on violence against children, and we examine how these attitudes are transmitted across generations in the context of the Rwandan genocide. We exploit spatial variation in genocide intensity from the Gacaca records and temporal variation in women’s timing of socialization from three rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in a difference-in-differences framework and find that younger women from regions more affected by genocide hold less violent attitudes compared to their peers from less-affected regions. Using an instrumental variable approach to estimate the transmission effect, we also show that descendants of these younger women from regions more affected by genocide are similarly less likely to develop violent attitudes. We provide evidence that genocide-induced women’s empowerment is the underlying mechanism. As such, our findings underscore previous evidence on the conflict–prosociality link by showing that mass violence can catalyze progressive norm change across generations, but also call for a more detailed investigation of the underlying adaptation mechanisms of the second generation.

在本文中，我们探讨了大规模暴力如何塑造对暴力侵害儿童的态度，并研究了这些态度是如何在卢旺达种族灭绝的背景下代代相传的。我们利用Gacaca记录中种族灭绝强度的空间差异和三轮人口与健康调查（DHS）中妇女社会化时间的时间差异，在差异中的差异框架中发现，与受种族灭绝影响较轻地区的同龄人相比，来自受种族灭绝影响较大地区的年轻妇女持较少的暴力态度。使用工具变量方法来估计传播效应，我们还表明，来自受种族灭绝影响更大地区的这些年轻女性的后代同样不太可能形成暴力态度。我们提供的证据表明，种族灭绝导致的妇女赋权是潜在的机制。因此，我们的研究结果强调了先前关于冲突-亲社会关系的证据，表明大规模暴力可以促进代际规范的进步变化，但也需要对第二代人的潜在适应机制进行更详细的调查。

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引用次数: 0

Conflicts and prosocial preferences 冲突和亲社会偏好

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107264

Dawoon Jung

How economic agents’ preferences—such as individual time preferences, risk preferences, and prosocial preferences—are formed is a central question in economics, with important implications for understanding decision-making behavior. This study examines the nonlinear effect of conflict exposure on prosocial preferences, measured using “tax game” survey questions from the 2008 Aceh Reintegration and Livelihood Survey (ARLS). Leveraging variation in individual conflict exposure during one of the longest-lasting conflicts in recent history in Aceh, Indonesia, the analysis reveals a nonlinear relationship between conflict intensity and individuals’ willingness to contribute to public goods. Specifically, contributions decrease as conflict exposure intensifies up to a certain threshold, beyond which contributions increase. These findings are robust to alternative measures of conflict exposure and the inclusion of relevant control variables, providing consistent evidence of the nonlinear association.

经济主体的偏好——如个人时间偏好、风险偏好和亲社会偏好——是如何形成的，这是经济学中的一个核心问题，对理解决策行为具有重要意义。本研究考察了冲突暴露对亲社会偏好的非线性影响，使用2008年亚齐重返社会和生计调查（ARLS）中的“税收游戏”调查问题进行测量。在印度尼西亚亚齐省近代史上持续时间最长的冲突之一中，利用个人冲突暴露程度的差异，分析揭示了冲突强度与个人为公共产品做出贡献的意愿之间的非线性关系。具体来说，当冲突暴露加剧到某一阈值时，捐款就会减少，超过这个阈值捐款就会增加。这些发现对于冲突暴露和相关控制变量的替代测量是稳健的，为非线性关联提供了一致的证据。

引用次数: 0

Catastrophe’s long reach: How historical natural disasters shape modern entrepreneurship? 灾难的长期影响：历史上的自然灾害如何塑造现代企业家精神？

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107277

Weihua Yu , Jinfei Niu , Xin Yao , Chenchen Deng

The interaction between historical adversity and the evolution of culture traits can leave a long-lasting imprint on contemporary economic outcomes. This paper investigates the enduring impact of historical natural disasters during China’s Ming and Qing dynasties on modern entrepreneurship. We find that individuals originating from regions with higher density of historical natural disasters show a reduced inclination towards entrepreneurship, which could be attributed to the negative effects of historical disasters on the risk-taking attitude, cultivation of interpersonal trust, and human capital investment. These results remain consistent after utilizing both the regression discontinuity method and IV approach to address endogeneity concerns. Overall, these insights not only highlight the persistent historical legacy in shaping the spirit of modern entrepreneurial endeavors, but also shed light on the broader, long-term economic impacts of climate change.

历史逆境与文化特征演变之间的相互作用可能对当代经济结果留下持久的印记。本文考察了中国明清两代历史自然灾害对现代企业家精神的持久影响。研究发现，来自历史自然灾害密度较高地区的个体创业倾向降低，这可能与历史灾害对风险承担态度、人际信任培养和人力资本投资的负面影响有关。在使用回归不连续方法和IV方法来解决内生性问题后，这些结果保持一致。总的来说，这些见解不仅突出了塑造现代创业精神的持久历史遗产，而且还揭示了气候变化对更广泛、长期的经济影响。

引用次数: 0

Empathy in action: unravelling crowdfunding dynamics for female refugee entrepreneurs in Lebanon, Jordan, and Palestine 行动中的同理心：揭示黎巴嫩、约旦和巴勒斯坦女性难民企业家的众筹动态

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107268

Ricardo Emanuel-Correia , Syahirah Abdul-Rahman , Doaa Althalathini

Crowdfunding has become a vital tool for bridging funding gaps, particularly for marginalised groups such as women and refugee entrepreneurs. This study aims to investigate the impact of entrepreneur gender and sectorial dominance on crowdfunding outcomes for female and male refugees, using the lens of sector studies and Role Congruity Theory. To empirically test our hypotheses, we gathered data about refugee entrepreneurs who seek capital for their business ventures on the Kiva crowdfunded microfinance platform. Our research highlights the unique challenges faced by female refugee entrepreneurs, including discriminatory financing practices and lack of formal documentation. However, crowdfunding platforms like Kiva offer crucial financial access, outperforming traditional financial institutions. We found that female refugee entrepreneurs often outperform their male counterparts in crowdfunding, especially in male-dominated activities. Moreover, campaigns located in refugee camps show positive crowdfunding outcomes, emphasising the value of these settings for women-led initiatives. Overall, crowdfunding offers a promising alternative for female refugees, overcoming significant barriers to entrepreneurship in both refugee camps and broader contexts, as well as providing implications for enhancing financial inclusion and supporting gender equity in entrepreneurial spaces.

众筹已成为弥补资金缺口的重要工具，特别是对妇女和难民企业家等边缘化群体而言。本研究旨在利用部门研究和角色一致性理论的视角，调查企业家性别和部门主导对女性和男性难民众筹结果的影响。为了从经验上验证我们的假设，我们收集了难民企业家在Kiva众筹小额信贷平台上为他们的企业寻求资金的数据。我们的研究突出了女性难民企业家面临的独特挑战，包括歧视性融资做法和缺乏正式文件。然而，像Kiva这样的众筹平台提供了至关重要的金融渠道，其表现优于传统金融机构。我们发现，女性难民企业家在众筹方面的表现往往优于男性企业家，尤其是在男性主导的活动中。此外，在难民营开展的活动显示出积极的众筹成果，强调了这些环境对妇女领导的倡议的价值。总体而言，众筹为女性难民提供了一个有希望的选择，克服了难民营和更广泛背景下创业的重大障碍，并为加强金融包容性和支持创业空间中的性别平等提供了影响。

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引用次数: 0

Can corporate good deeds reduce environmental injustice? Evidence from China 企业的善行能减少环境不公吗？来自中国的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107265

Chunxiao Wang , Yu Hao

This study explores the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in enhancing environmental justice. We argue that CSR helps mitigate environmental injustice, a responsibility stemming from ethical considerations faced by corporations. Furthermore, building on previous studies that identify income disparity as the key factor contributing to environmental injustice, we find that regional economic growth, poverty alleviation among the rural poor, and the enhancement of political power are the primary channels through which CSR influences environmental justice. An analysis of Chinese listed companies provides evidence supporting our view, revealing a more pronounced mitigating effect of CSR on environmental injustice in non-state-owned, environmentally friendly, and large-scale firms. Notably, this contribution of CSR to environmental justice is more evident in the economically developed eastern region of China, which boasts a high level of marketization and a favorable business environment. This highlights the substantive role of CSR in environmental justice. By incorporating CSR into environmental justice studies, our research makes a meaningful theoretical advancement in understanding corporate ethical responsibilities and offers practical implications.

本研究探讨企业社会责任（CSR）在促进环境正义中的作用。我们认为，企业社会责任有助于减轻环境不公正，这是一种源于企业面临的道德考虑的责任。此外，在以往研究认为收入差距是导致环境不公正的关键因素的基础上，我们发现区域经济增长、农村贫困人口的脱贫和政治权力的增强是企业社会责任影响环境正义的主要渠道。对中国上市公司的分析提供了支持我们观点的证据，表明非国有企业、环境友好型企业和大型企业的企业社会责任对环境不公平的缓解作用更为明显。值得注意的是，企业社会责任对环境正义的贡献在中国经济发达的东部地区更为明显，该地区具有较高的市场化程度和良好的商业环境。这凸显了企业社会责任在环境正义中的实质性作用。通过将企业社会责任纳入环境正义研究，我们的研究在理解企业伦理责任方面取得了有意义的理论进步，并具有现实意义。

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引用次数: 0

Identification of earnings dynamics using rotating samples over short periods: the case of Chile 短期内使用轮换样本识别盈余动态：智利的案例

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107253

Carlos Madeira

Due to high informality and sparse longitudinal data, empirical studies often ignore labor income dynamics in developing economies, where earnings inequality is highest and social insurance is weakest. I propose a dynamic earnings process with two distinct shocks: unemployment spells and the wages of workers who stay employed. This income process can be estimated from employment surveys with a rotating sample design, which are available for several countries. Applying this procedure to Chilean data, I show that wage volatility and unemployment rates are highly heterogeneous across workers. Unemployment spells are the most important source of earnings risk for workers.

由于高度的非正式性和稀疏的纵向数据，实证研究往往忽略了发展中经济体的劳动收入动态，而发展中经济体的收入不平等程度最高，社会保险最薄弱。我提出了一个动态的收入过程，其中有两个不同的冲击：失业期和保持就业的工人的工资。这一收入过程可以通过轮换抽样设计的就业调查来估计，这种调查可用于若干国家。将这一过程应用到智利的数据中，我发现工资波动和失业率在工人之间是高度异质的。失业期是工人收入风险的最重要来源。

引用次数: 0

Estimating dynamic macroeconomic effects of exogenous remittances 估计外生汇款的动态宏观经济影响

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107252

Markus Brueckner , Sudyumna Dahal , Haiyan Lin

We use a local projection instrumental variable approach to estimate dynamic macroeconomic effects of temporary, exogenous remittance shocks. We identify exogenous remittance shocks by instrumenting remittances with the migrant-share-weighted GDP per capita of migrants’ destination countries. Impulse response functions show that the identified remittance shock is temporary and that it has a significant positive effect on remittance-recipient countries’ real GDP per capita on impact, and cumulatively over the medium term, e.g. over periods of 5 and 10 years. Household consumption and investment significantly increase while the ratio of net exports over GDP decreases. We also find that the increase in exogenous remittances causes a significant increase in external debt and a significant decrease, on impact, in the external debt servicing cost as a fraction of GNI. Our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the model by Bahadir et al. (2018) for the case in which an exogenous, temporary remittance inflow accrues to credit-constrained entrepreneurs.

我们使用本地预测工具变量方法来估计临时性外生汇款冲击的动态宏观经济影响。我们通过将汇款与移民目的地国的移民份额加权人均GDP挂钩来识别外源性汇款冲击。脉冲响应函数表明，所确定的汇款冲击是暂时的，它对汇款接受国的实际人均国内生产总值具有显著的积极影响，并且在中期，例如在5年和10年期间累积。家庭消费和投资显著增加，净出口占GDP的比例下降。我们还发现，外生汇款的增加导致外债大幅增加，而外债还本付息成本占国民总收入的比例则显著下降。我们的实证结果与Bahadir等人（2018）的模型预测一致，在这种情况下，外生的、临时的汇款流入会增加到信贷受限的企业家。

引用次数: 0

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