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The impact of independence on reported aid performance 独立性对报告的援助绩效的影响
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106829
Terence Wood, Stephen Howes
In this paper we test whether the reported performance of aid projects changes when the process of producing project appraisals is made more independent. We do this using a dataset of Australian aid appraisals and take advantage of a change that occurred when a more independent process involving the central aid evaluation unit of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) and external contractors was put in place to review appraisals of recently completed projects. Using difference-in-differences and contrasting assessments of ongoing projects, which the appraisal process was not changed for, and completed projects, where the process was changed, we show that introducing more independence led to a substantial fall in how successful projects were deemed to be. We also show that the change probably led to more accurate recording of COVID-19′s impact on Australian aid, as well as more accurate assessments of the quality of Australia’s aid to Papua New Guinea, its largest aid partner. As we do this, we take care to demonstrate that our findings are robust to the types of methodological issues that can affect difference-in-differences studies.
在本文中,我们检验了当项目评估过程更加独立时,援助项目的报告绩效是否会发生变化。我们使用了澳大利亚援助评估数据集,并利用了外交贸易部(DFAT)中央援助评估部门和外部承包商共同参与的更加独立的流程来审查最近完成的项目评估时所发生的变化。我们采用差异分析方法,对评估程序未变的进行中项目和评估程序已变的已完成项目进行对比评估,结果表明,引入更多独立性导致被认为成功的项目大幅减少。我们还表明,这一变化可能会使 COVID-19 对澳大利亚援助的影响得到更准确的记录,并使澳大利亚对其最大的援助伙伴巴布亚新几内亚的援助质量得到更准确的评估。在此过程中,我们注意证明我们的研究结果对可能影响差异研究的各类方法论问题具有稳健性。
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引用次数: 0
“You need to have this information!”: Using videos to increase demand for accountability on public revenue management "你需要这些信息!":利用视频提高对公共收入管理问责制的要求
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106813
Christa Brunnschweiler , Ishmael Edjekumhene , Päivi Lujala , Sabrina Scherzer
How can citizens be motivated to demand accountability in the management of public revenues? We carry out a video survey experiment among 2300 Ghanaian respondents to study the impact of information provision and encouragement messages by a politician and a civil society leader on attitudes and demand for accountability in the management of petroleum revenues. We find that providing information significantly increases knowledge about current revenue management, satisfaction with the way revenues are handled and spent, and the intention to demand more accountability. The encouragement messages have an additional effect: they increase the sense that citizens can influence how petroleum revenues are used and the intention to contact media to ensure better accountability. However, a follow-up survey two years later shows that these impacts do not last. The experiment suggests that providing relevant information affects attitudes and intended behavior in the short term and that role models can give valuable encouragement for behavioral change, but this is not enough to influence engagement with revenue management in the longer term.
如何激励公民要求在公共收入管理方面实行问责制?我们在 2300 名加纳受访者中开展了一项视频调查实验,研究政治家和民间社会领袖提供的信息和鼓励性信息对石油收入管理问责制的态度和要求的影响。我们发现,提供信息会大大增加对当前收入管理的了解、对收入处理和支出方式的满意度,以及要求加强问责制的意愿。鼓励性信息还有一个额外的效果:它们增强了公民可以影响石油收入使用方式的意识,以及与媒体联系以确保加强问责制的意愿。然而,两年后的跟踪调查显示,这些影响并不持久。实验表明,提供相关信息会在短期内影响人们的态度和预期行为,榜样可以为行为改变提供有价值的鼓励,但从长期来看,这还不足以影响人们对收入管理的参与。
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引用次数: 0
Does Household Electrification Empower Rural Boys and Girls Alike? Evidence from Brazil 家庭电气化是否同样增强了农村男孩和女孩的能力?巴西的证据
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106788
Yeonbin Yang
This study examines the impact of government-supported household electrification on the human capital of children in rural Brazil, which is relatively marginalized compared to urban sectors, between 1980 and 2010. The study focuses on gender heterogeneity. Using Brazilian census data and instrumented electricity measures, I estimate the effects of household electrification on school attendance and work in the short run and educational progression in the long run. Household electrification positively affects children’s educational human capital in the short and long run, but the effects are stronger for boys. In terms of its impact on work, it reduces the likelihood of girls doing housework but increases the likelihood of them doing paid work. In contrast, it significantly reduces the likelihood of boys doing unpaid work in family farms and businesses, with no causal effect on paid work and housework. I also propose mechanisms to explain this heterogeneity. These results show gender gaps in the impact of household electrification on the accumulation of educational human capital in both the short and long run. They also demonstrate gender differences in the impact on work. The conclusive implication is that boys may benefit more from the increased educational opportunities enabled by household electrification.
本研究探讨了 1980 年至 2010 年间,政府支持的家庭电气化对巴西农村儿童人力资本的影响。研究重点是性别异质性。我利用巴西人口普查数据和电力测量工具,估算了家庭电气化在短期内对入学率和工作的影响,以及在长期内对教育进步的影响。从短期和长期来看,家庭电气化对儿童的教育人力资本都有积极影响,但对男孩的影响更大。就对工作的影响而言,家庭电气化降低了女孩从事家务劳动的可能性,但增加了她们从事有偿工作的可能性。相反,它大大降低了男孩在家庭农场和企业从事无偿工作的可能性,对有偿工作和家务劳动没有因果影响。我还提出了解释这种异质性的机制。这些结果表明,家庭电气化对教育人力资本积累的短期和长期影响存在性别差异。这些结果还显示了工作影响方面的性别差异。其结论性含义是,男孩可能从家庭电气化带来的更多教育机会中获益更多。
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引用次数: 0
Climate change and energy poverty: Evidence from China 气候变化与能源贫困:来自中国的证据
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106826
Shu Wu , Fangfang Hu , Zhijian Zhang
Climate change, characterized by fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, presents significant challenges to household welfare. This study offers novel insights into how climate change influences household energy poverty. Leveraging data from the 2015 and 2018 China General Social Survey, we apply clustering analysis and a pseudo-panel data model to investigate the effects of temperature and precipitation variations on both the incidence and intensity of household energy poverty, as well as the mechanisms driving these outcomes. Our findings reveal that climate change, manifested in widening temperature deviations and increasing precipitation, significantly heightens both the incidence and intensity of household energy poverty. Specifically, urban households and those in southern regions demonstrate greater vulnerability to amplifying temperature fluctuations, whereas rural households, northern residents, and low- to middle-income groups are more susceptible to the impacts of precipitation changes. Rising temperature deviations exacerbate energy poverty by driving up energy demand, while increased precipitation intensifies it by augmenting off-farm labor transfers. However, temperature and precipitation changes can also mitigate poverty by boosting crop yields. This study is the first to incorporate precipitation changes into the energy poverty discourse. The findings underscore the critical need to account for climate change when devising policies aimed at addressing household welfare loss and alleviating energy poverty.
以气温和降水量波动为特征的气候变化给家庭福利带来了重大挑战。本研究提供了气候变化如何影响家庭能源贫困的新见解。利用 2015 年和 2018 年中国社会综合调查的数据,我们运用聚类分析和伪面板数据模型,研究了气温和降水变化对家庭能源贫困发生率和强度的影响,以及这些结果的驱动机制。我们的研究结果表明,气候变化表现为气温偏差的扩大和降水量的增加,这大大加剧了家庭能源贫困的发生率和强度。具体而言,城市家庭和南方地区的家庭更容易受到气温波动扩大的影响,而农村家庭、北方居民和中低收入群体则更容易受到降水变化的影响。气温偏差的上升会增加能源需求,从而加剧能源贫困;而降水量的增加则会增加非农业劳动力的转移,从而加剧能源贫困。然而,气温和降水的变化也可以通过提高作物产量来减轻贫困。本研究首次将降水变化纳入能源贫困的讨论。研究结果强调,在制定旨在解决家庭福利损失和缓解能源贫困的政策时,亟需考虑气候变化因素。
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引用次数: 0
Can donors prevent aid misallocations? Evidence from Chinese and World Bank aid 捐助方能否防止援助分配不当?中国和世界银行援助的证据
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106811
Pierre André , Paul Maarek , Fatoumata Tapo
We estimate the extent to which international aid projects are subject to favoritism using differences in differences and RDD estimates based on presidential transition dates. We compare two different sources of aid, China and the World Bank, and two different types of favoritism based on the president’s region of birth or ethnic group. Consistent with the literature, we find that Chinese aid is massively targeted to the region of birth of new presidents. However, we also find evidence of a less visible and less intense form of favoritism in World Bank aid: it targets areas that are co-ethnic with a new president, without following major regional administrative boundaries. This is consistent with a better control of the World Bank aid. Moreover, the political economy of World Bank aid favoritism appears to be more complex: World Bank aid favoritism is more intense in dictatorships, when Chinese aid is more abundant, and in countries that have historically received more World Bank aid.
我们利用差异和基于总统交接日期的 RDD 估计值来估算国际援助项目受到偏袒的程度。我们比较了中国和世界银行这两种不同的援助来源,以及基于总统出生地区或族群的两种不同类型的偏袒。与文献一致,我们发现中国的援助主要针对新总统的出生地。然而,我们也发现了世界银行援助中一种不那么明显、也不那么强烈的偏袒形式:它针对的是与新总统同族的地区,而不遵循主要的地区行政边界。这与更好地控制世界银行的援助是一致的。此外,世界银行援助偏袒的政治经济学似乎更为复杂:在独裁国家、中国援助更多的国家以及历史上接受世界银行援助更多的国家,世界银行援助偏袒更为强烈。
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引用次数: 0
Gender imbalance and temporary migration: Evidence from rural China 性别失衡与临时迁移:来自中国农村的证据
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106832
Huiqiong Duan, Weici Yuan, Thomas Snyder
This paper examines how sex ratio imbalance (more males than females) affects individual temporary migration decisions and broad migration trends at the county level in China. Due to the country’s one-child policy, strong son preference, and prenatal sex selection, rural areas have a surplus of unmarried males, leading to intensified competition for marriage partners. To enhance their attractiveness for marriage, unmarried males and households with unmarried sons have incentives to migrate to urban areas and accumulate wealth. Using data from a nationally representative Chinese household income survey and population census, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the local sex ratio raises rural unmarried males’ likelihood of temporary migration by 3.6 percentage points. Additionally, county-level evidence suggests that the increase in the local sex ratio can account for about 25% of the increase in temporary rural–urban migration during 2000–2010.
本文探讨了性别比失衡(男性多于女性)如何影响中国县域层面的个人临时迁移决策和总体迁移趋势。由于中国的独生子女政策、强烈的重男轻女观念和产前性别选择,农村地区未婚男性过剩,导致婚姻伴侣竞争加剧。为了提高婚姻吸引力,未婚男性和有未婚儿子的家庭有动力迁移到城市地区并积累财富。利用具有全国代表性的中国家庭收入调查和人口普查数据,我们发现,当地性别比每增加一个标准差,农村未婚男性临时迁移的可能性就会增加 3.6 个百分点。此外,县级层面的证据表明,当地性别比的上升可以解释 2000-2010 年间农村人口向城市临时迁移增加的约 25%。
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引用次数: 0
Benefit or procedure? Determinants of perceived distributive fairness in rural China 利益还是程序?中国农村地区分配公平感的决定因素
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106821
Cai Zuo , Xian Huang
Although distributive fairness significantly affects a wide range of political attitudes, such as legitimacy perceptions, our understanding of the determinants of individuals’ fairness judgments in countries without competitive elections, which adopt deliberative practices in lieu of popular elections in decision-making, remains inadequate. Using original survey data about the Targeted Poverty Alleviation (TPA) program in rural China, we find that the awareness of public deliberation in poverty identification is a dominant determinant of individuals’ fairness judgments about TPA. Moreover, this procedural awareness dampens, rather than promotes, the positive effect of material benefits on perceived fairness, meaning that the awareness boosts individuals’ fairness judgments, especially among non-beneficiaries. The findings suggest that the poor segment of Chinese rural citizenry does care about the procedure through which the allocational decisions are made other than instrumental or substantive outcomes. Procedural justice functions as an equalizer that maintains the consent of non-beneficiaries or economic “losers”. Our study enhances the understanding of distributive fairness beyond Western advanced economies.
尽管分配公平性会对一系列政治态度(如合法性认知)产生重大影响,但在没有竞争性选举的国家,我们对个人公平性判断的决定因素的理解仍然不足。通过对中国农村定点扶贫(TPA)项目的原始调查数据,我们发现贫困识别中的公共审议意识是个人对 TPA 公正性判断的主要决定因素。此外,这种程序性意识会抑制而非促进物质利益对公平感知的积极影响,也就是说,这种意识会促进个体的公平判断,尤其是在非受益者中。研究结果表明,中国农村的贫困阶层确实关心分配决策的程序,而不是工具性或实质性的结果。程序公正发挥了均衡器的作用,维持了非受益者或经济 "失败者 "的同意。我们的研究加深了人们对西方发达经济体以外的分配公平的理解。
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引用次数: 0
A qualitative examination of microfinance and intimate partner violence in India: Understanding the role of male backlash and household bargaining models 对印度小额信贷和亲密伴侣暴力的定性研究:了解男性反弹和家庭谈判模式的作用
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106805
Annabel Dulhunty
The relationship between microcredit and Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) has been explored in numerous quantitative studies. These alternately claim that microcredit exacerbates, reduces or has no impact on IPV. These contrasting findings are problematic, however, particularly as hundreds of billions of dollars continue to be invested in microcredit and women’s economic empowerment programs. This article, by contrast, uses qualitative methods to examine the perceptions of both female microcredit users and their male partners in West Bengal, India, drawing on 34 focus group discussions and 29 one-to-one interviews. This study analyses women’s and men’s understanding of IPV and the impact they see that a microcredit program has had on violence. It reviews these perspectives and seeks to understand the contradictory studies on microcredit and IPV through drawing on feminist economic and sociological theories of violence. This paper illustrates the importance of male backlash models, especially at the beginning stages of a program, but indicates that after time, a household bargaining model also holds relevance. This highlights the significant temporal dimensions in the relationship between microcredit and IPV and demonstrates the importance of six key factors for a household bargaining model to hold.
许多定量研究都探讨了小额信贷与亲密伴侣暴力(IPV)之间的关系。这些研究交替声称,小额信贷会加剧、减少或不会对 IPV 产生影响。然而,这些截然相反的研究结果是有问题的,尤其是在小额信贷和妇女经济赋权项目持续投入数千亿美元的情况下。相比之下,本文通过 34 次焦点小组讨论和 29 次一对一访谈,采用定性方法研究了印度西孟加拉邦女性小额信贷用户及其男性伴侣的看法。本研究分析了女性和男性对 IPV 的理解,以及他们认为小额信贷项目对暴力行为的影响。本文回顾了这些观点,并试图通过借鉴女权主义经济学和暴力社会学理论来理解关于小额信贷和 IPV 的相互矛盾的研究。本文说明了男性反弹模式的重要性,尤其是在项目的初期阶段,但也指出,随着时间的推移,家庭谈判模式也具有相关性。这凸显了小额信贷与 IPV 之间关系的重要时间维度,并证明了家庭谈判模式的六个关键因素的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Indigenous forest destroyers or guardians? The indigenous Batwa and their ancestral forests in Kahuzi-Biega National Park, DRC 土著森林破坏者还是守护者?刚果民主共和国 Kahuzi-Biega 国家公园的巴特瓦原住民及其祖先的森林
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106818
Fergus O’Leary Simpson , Kristof Titeca , Lorenzo Pellegrini , Thomas Muller , Mwamibantu Muliri Dubois
This paper makes a significant empirical contribution to our understanding of the complex relations between indigenous people and nature. It builds on the literature on environmental narratives to show how for some policy actors, indigenous populations are seen as ‘forest destroyers’, and for others as ‘forest guardians’. It argues that these narratives are based on ideal-type constructions, which frame indigenous agency as a central defence against or factor in environmental destruction. By doing so, they rationalize different roles for the state and indigenous peoples in conservation governance. On a surface level, the narratives appear as competing and incompatible. Yet, on closer inspection, they are stabilized within and reinforce a shared common sense: namely, that the fate of nature ultimately hinges upon indigenous peoples. Through an in-depth study of an indigenous group known as the Batwa in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) Kahuzi-Biega National Park, the paper challenges this viewpoint. Using both qualitative and quantitative data, including satellite imagery, it shows how the ideal-type narratives ultimately divert attention from a broader political economy of violent resource extraction, which is fundamental. In doing so, they account for policies that fail people and nature.
本文为我们理解土著居民与自然之间的复杂关系做出了重要的实证贡献。它以环境叙事文献为基础,展示了对于某些政策制定者而言,土著居民是如何被视为 "森林破坏者",而对于另一些政策制定者而言,土著居民又是如何被视为 "森林守护者"。报告认为,这些叙事基于理想型建构,将原住民机构设定为抵御环境破坏的核心力量或因素。通过这样做,它们合理化了国家和土著人民在保护治理中的不同角色。从表面上看,这些叙事似乎相互竞争、互不相容。然而,仔细观察,它们都稳定在一个共同的常识中,并强化了这个常识:即自然的命运最终取决于原住民。本文通过对刚果民主共和国(DRC)东部卡胡兹-比埃加国家公园(Kahuzi-Biega National Park)一个名为巴特瓦人(Batwa)的土著群体的深入研究,对这一观点提出了质疑。通过使用定性和定量数据(包括卫星图像),本文说明了理想型叙事如何最终转移了人们对更广泛的暴力资源开采政治经济的关注,而这才是根本所在。这样一来,它们就解释了那些辜负了人类和自然的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Infrastructure Services and Early Childhood Development in Latin America and the Caribbean: Water, Sanitation, and Garbage Collection 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的基础设施服务与幼儿发展:水、卫生设施和垃圾收集
IF 5.4 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106817
Lenin H. Balza , Jorge Cuartas , Nicolas Gomez-Parra , Tomás Serebrisky
Access to essential infrastructure services such as water, sanitation, and garbage collection can considerably affect children’s environment and may play a significant role in shaping early childhood developmental and health outcomes. Using data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) and the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), we show a significant positive association between access to water and sanitation and early childhood development, as well as reduced instances of stunting. In addition, we identify a negative association between access to improved garbage collection services and the rates of stunting among children under five. Our findings are robust after using alternative measures for access and controlling for individual, maternal, and household factors, alongside considerations of household wealth, caregiver’s stimulation activities and behaviors, and local community spillovers. Similarly, the economic relevance of the relationship is highlighted by the substantial gap relative to the size of the vulnerable groups, persisting even after adjusting for confounding variables. Our results also suggest that households may be able to lessen the potential impact of pollutants through mitigation measures such as treating water to make it safe for consumption, using handwashing cleansers, and storing household trash in lidded containers. The current findings underscore the importance of investing in basic infrastructure services as a critical component of comprehensive strategies to enhance early childhood development and health in low- and middle-income countries. We emphasize the importance of considering the quality and type of infrastructure services alongside their availability. Future research should incorporate more complete and detailed data to improve understanding of the causal relationship between water, sanitation, and garbage collection and early childhood development, as well as the mechanisms underlying the observed associations.
水、卫生设施和垃圾收集等基本基础设施服务的获取会极大地影响儿童的生活环境,并可能在塑造儿童早期发展和健康结果方面发挥重要作用。利用拉丁美洲和加勒比地区(LAC)18 个国家的多指标类集调查(MICS)和人口与健康调查(DHS)数据,我们发现,获得水和卫生设施与儿童早期发展之间存在显著的正相关关系,发育迟缓的情况也有所减少。此外,我们还发现,获得更好的垃圾收集服务与五岁以下儿童发育迟缓率之间存在负相关。在使用了其他衡量标准并控制了个人、母亲和家庭因素,同时考虑了家庭财富、照顾者的刺激活动和行为以及当地社区的溢出效应后,我们的研究结果是稳健的。同样,这种关系的经济相关性还体现在相对于弱势群体规模的巨大差距上,即使在对混杂变量进行调整后,这种差距依然存在。我们的研究结果还表明,家庭可以通过一些缓解措施来减轻污染物的潜在影响,如处理水使其可安全饮用、使用洗手清洁剂以及将家庭垃圾存放在有盖容器中。目前的研究结果强调了投资基本基础设施服务的重要性,它是中低收入国家促进幼儿发展和健康综合战略的重要组成部分。我们强调,在考虑基础设施服务的可用性的同时,还必须考虑其质量和类型。未来的研究应纳入更完整、更详细的数据,以更好地理解水、卫生设施和垃圾收集与幼儿发展之间的因果关系,以及所观察到的关联背后的机制。
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World Development
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