Pub Date : 2025-12-25DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107294
Raouf Boucekkine , Rodolphe Desbordes , Paolo Melindi-Ghidi
The modernisation theory of regime change is often perceived to be a murky paradigm, lacking theoretical or empirical foundations. In response, we clarify the links between education and regime change. More specifically, we propose that education contributes indirectly to the collapse of autocratic regimes because educated people engage in non-violent (civil) resistance that reduces the effectiveness of the security apparatus. We empirically test the validity of this ‘defanging effect’ of education. We indeed find that the combination of high autocracy and high education levels tends to trigger non-violent campaigns, which in turn increases the likelihood of a regime change, likely to be associated with political liberalisation.
{"title":"The defanging effect of education and autocratic survival","authors":"Raouf Boucekkine , Rodolphe Desbordes , Paolo Melindi-Ghidi","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107294","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107294","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The modernisation theory of regime change is often perceived to be a murky paradigm, lacking theoretical or empirical foundations. In response, we clarify the links between education and regime change. More specifically, we propose that education contributes indirectly to the collapse of autocratic regimes because educated people engage in non-violent (civil) resistance that reduces the effectiveness of the security apparatus. We empirically test the validity of this ‘defanging effect’ of education. We indeed find that the combination of high autocracy and high education levels tends to trigger non-violent campaigns, which in turn increases the likelihood of a regime change, likely to be associated with political liberalisation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107294"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107303
Marie Müller-Koné , Kennedy Mkutu
State-run forest conservation in the postcolony often comes with various forms of violence and dispossession of local populations. In this article we investigate how conservation policies and practices relate to intercommunal conflict among forest residents. We look at the case of evictions of forest residents and intercommunal clashes in the Mau Forest area, Kenya, in the years following 2018, in conjunction with a long-durée perspective on land conflicts in the region. While political ecology literature on “green grabbing” and “slow violence” of conservation has so far hardly addressed ‘second-order’ impacts of forest evictions on group conflicts, we find political ecology fruitful as a theoretical framework to understand the links between state evictions and intercommunal conflicts. Using archival research and qualitative interviews conducted between 2018 and 2023, combined with ACLED conflict data (1997–2022), the authors show how colonial and postcolonial land policies, including attempts to conserve or rehabilitate Mau Forest, fostered dispossession, contributing to today’s violence. Past research tends to attribute intercommunal violence in Kenya to elections or resource competition, but this article explores deeper mechanisms tied to land reforms and settlement schemes that fuel identity-based conflicts. In areas like East Mau (Nakuru) and Maasai Mau (Narok), socioecological shifts—such as agricultural expansion—, coupled with population growth and unclear forest boundaries, intensified tensions. These transformations have commodified landscapes, producing new frontiers of conflict and exclusion. The results are significant for forest conservation and climate finance projects because they show how the impacts of contemporary conservation enforcement practices combine with long-durée impacts of both “brute” and “slow” violence to fuel intercommunal conflicts.
{"title":"Settlements as dispossession: Forest conservation and frontiers’ violence in Mau Forest, Kenya","authors":"Marie Müller-Koné , Kennedy Mkutu","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>State-run forest conservation in the postcolony often comes with various forms of violence and dispossession of local populations. In this article we investigate how conservation policies and practices relate to intercommunal conflict among forest residents. We look at the case of evictions of forest residents and intercommunal clashes in the Mau Forest area, Kenya, in the years following 2018, in conjunction with a <em>long-durée</em> perspective on land conflicts in the region. While political ecology literature on “green grabbing” and “slow violence” of conservation has so far hardly addressed ‘second-order’ impacts of forest evictions on group conflicts, we find political ecology fruitful as a theoretical framework to understand the links between state evictions and intercommunal conflicts. Using archival research and qualitative interviews conducted between 2018 and 2023, combined with ACLED conflict data (1997–2022), the authors show how colonial and postcolonial land policies, including attempts to conserve or rehabilitate Mau Forest, fostered dispossession, contributing to today’s violence. Past research tends to attribute intercommunal violence in Kenya to elections or resource competition, but this article explores deeper mechanisms tied to land reforms and settlement schemes that fuel identity-based conflicts. In areas like East Mau (Nakuru) and Maasai Mau (Narok), socioecological shifts—such as agricultural expansion—, coupled with population growth and unclear forest boundaries, intensified tensions. These transformations have commodified landscapes, producing new frontiers of conflict and exclusion. The results are significant for forest conservation and climate finance projects because they show how the impacts of contemporary conservation enforcement practices combine with <em>long-durée</em> impacts of both “brute” and “slow” violence to fuel intercommunal conflicts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107303"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107299
Janina Grabs , Gezahegn Berecha Yadessa , Marc Castellón Durán , Adugna Eneyew Bekele , Caleb Gallemore , Weyessa Garedew Terefe , Shitaye Gure Lemessa , Marta Hailemariam Mamo , Ng’winamila Donald Kasongi , Melkamu Mamuye Kebede , Daniel Andwale Mwalutolo , Ina Niehues , Christine Noe , Stefano Ponte , Guta Regasa Megerssa , Pilly Silvano , Nestory Yamungu , Kristjan Jespersen
Rapid climate change is making climate resilience a key concern in the agricultural sector. Yet, in practice, efforts to support resilience are often vague about ultimate goals, as well as which systems and perturbations need to be considered to achieve key objectives. This article presents a multi-scalar climate resilience framework that distinguishes between resilience at the sectoral, country, community, and household scale involved in coffee production. We then apply the framework by comparing the ambitions of climate resilience approaches pursued by companies and global development agencies with strategies driven by producing country institutions and coffee farming communities. We triangulate evidence from a novel dataset documenting climate-resilience interventions in the global coffee sector with original survey, interview, and focus group discussion data from fieldwork in Tanzania and Ethiopia. We find that interventions originating in importing countries primarily focus on ensuring continued coffee production in service of sectoral resilience, and rarely foreground alternative livelihood strategies that would benefit household-level resilience. Activities led by origin countries focus on productivity and quality improvements, but rarely center on climate resilience. Farmers themselves, while strongly valuing coffee as a livelihood strategy, highlight the need for diversification and pragmatic adjustments in the face of growing climate threats. We conclude that there is a need for more farmer-centric climate change interventions that strengthen not only absorptive and adaptive, but also transformative capacities.
{"title":"Resilience of what and for whom? Climate change mitigation and adaptation in the global, Ethiopian, and Tanzanian coffee sectors","authors":"Janina Grabs , Gezahegn Berecha Yadessa , Marc Castellón Durán , Adugna Eneyew Bekele , Caleb Gallemore , Weyessa Garedew Terefe , Shitaye Gure Lemessa , Marta Hailemariam Mamo , Ng’winamila Donald Kasongi , Melkamu Mamuye Kebede , Daniel Andwale Mwalutolo , Ina Niehues , Christine Noe , Stefano Ponte , Guta Regasa Megerssa , Pilly Silvano , Nestory Yamungu , Kristjan Jespersen","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107299","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107299","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid climate change is making climate resilience a key concern in the agricultural sector. Yet, in practice, efforts to support resilience are often vague about ultimate goals, as well as which systems and perturbations need to be considered to achieve key objectives. This article presents a multi-scalar climate resilience framework that distinguishes between resilience at the sectoral, country, community, and household scale involved in coffee production. We then apply the framework by comparing the ambitions of climate resilience approaches pursued by companies and global development agencies with strategies driven by producing country institutions and coffee farming communities. We triangulate evidence from a novel dataset documenting climate-resilience interventions in the global coffee sector with original survey, interview, and focus group discussion data from fieldwork in Tanzania and Ethiopia. We find that interventions originating in importing countries primarily focus on ensuring continued coffee production in service of sectoral resilience, and rarely foreground alternative livelihood strategies that would benefit household-level resilience. Activities led by origin countries focus on productivity and quality improvements, but rarely center on climate resilience. Farmers themselves, while strongly valuing coffee as a livelihood strategy, highlight the need for diversification and pragmatic adjustments in the face of growing climate threats. We conclude that there is a need for more farmer-centric climate change interventions that strengthen not only absorptive and adaptive, but also transformative capacities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107299"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-23DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107304
Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado , Isaac Amedanou
This paper examines the dynamic effects of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) reforms and Network Sector reforms on unemployment in selected African countries from 1990 to 2014. Reforms refer to changes in the EPL or Network Sector institutions index. Using local projections combined with augmented inverse probability weighting (LP–AIPW) and Entropy Balancing techniques to address endogeneity concerns, our findings show that EPL reforms reduce unemployment from the first year after their implementation, while Network Sector reforms also lower unemployment, with significant effects emerging from the second year onward. Robustness checks confirm that these results are consistent across alternative specifications, different definitions of reform episodes, and alternative labor-market outcomes such as employment and labor force participation. The heterogeneity analysis shows that both types of reforms reduce unemployment among men and young workers aged 15–24, while significant effects for women are concentrated among young female workers. Finally, we identify key transmission channels through which the reforms operate, including reductions in informality, increases in domestic investment and foreign direct investment, and short-run improvements in total factor productivity.
{"title":"Unemployment impact of network sectors and employment protection legislation reforms: Evidence from selected african countries","authors":"Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado , Isaac Amedanou","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107304","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107304","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the dynamic effects of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) reforms and Network Sector reforms on unemployment in selected African countries from 1990 to 2014. Reforms refer to changes in the EPL or Network Sector institutions index. Using local projections combined with augmented inverse probability weighting (LP–AIPW) and Entropy Balancing techniques to address endogeneity concerns, our findings show that EPL reforms reduce unemployment from the first year after their implementation, while Network Sector reforms also lower unemployment, with significant effects emerging from the second year onward. Robustness checks confirm that these results are consistent across alternative specifications, different definitions of reform episodes, and alternative labor-market outcomes such as employment and labor force participation. The heterogeneity analysis shows that both types of reforms reduce unemployment among men and young workers aged 15–24, while significant effects for women are concentrated among young female workers. Finally, we identify key transmission channels through which the reforms operate, including reductions in informality, increases in domestic investment and foreign direct investment, and short-run improvements in total factor productivity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107304"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107279
Noël Muller, Anna Fruttero, Óscar Calvo-González, Jacobus de Hoop
Policy interventions designed to enhance aspirations, using strategies such as exposure to role models, are increasingly implemented to help students, women, microentrepreneurs, farmers, and poor individuals access untapped opportunities. Many of these interventions were successful, but various others failed to generate meaningful changes or even worsened beneficiaries’ situation. This paper argues that policies aimed at raising aspirations cannot be designed or assessed in isolation from the opportunities individuals face. We propose a simple framework that jointly considers aspirations (people’s life goals for education, work, social status, and more) and opportunities (the resources, markets, and support that make those goals attainable). The framework highlights four scenarios — alignment, poverty traps, aspirations traps, and frustration — and clarifies how misalignment between aspirations and opportunities can lead to underinvestment and welfare losses. We then conduct a narrative review of policy interventions that target aspirations, opportunities, or both. Interventions that deliberately combine aspiration and opportunity-enhancing components, or that target one dimension in settings where the other is credibly sufficient, are more likely to generate sustained gains in outcomes. By contrast, aspiration-only or opportunity-only interventions often show mixed or null effects and can, in some cases, increase frustration. We discuss practical lessons for policy in light of these conclusions.
{"title":"Policies for aspirations. And opportunities","authors":"Noël Muller, Anna Fruttero, Óscar Calvo-González, Jacobus de Hoop","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107279","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107279","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Policy interventions designed to enhance aspirations, using strategies such as exposure to role models, are increasingly implemented to help students, women, microentrepreneurs, farmers, and poor individuals access untapped opportunities. Many of these interventions were successful, but various others failed to generate meaningful changes or even worsened beneficiaries’ situation. This paper argues that policies aimed at raising aspirations cannot be designed or assessed in isolation from the opportunities individuals face. We propose a simple framework that jointly considers aspirations (people’s life goals for education, work, social status, and more) and opportunities (the resources, markets, and support that make those goals attainable). The framework highlights four scenarios — alignment, poverty traps, aspirations traps, and frustration — and clarifies how misalignment between aspirations and opportunities can lead to underinvestment and welfare losses. We then conduct a narrative review of policy interventions that target aspirations, opportunities, or both. Interventions that deliberately combine aspiration and opportunity-enhancing components, or that target one dimension in settings where the other is credibly sufficient, are more likely to generate sustained gains in outcomes. By contrast, aspiration-only or opportunity-only interventions often show mixed or null effects and can, in some cases, increase frustration. We discuss practical lessons for policy in light of these conclusions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107279"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107300
Quach Thi Khanh Ngoc , Bui Bich Xuan , Pham Khanh Nam
Small-scale fisheries are crucial for supporting the welfare of coastal communities. Nonetheless, in Vietnam prolonged overexploitation and inadequate management have led small-scale fisheries into an uncertain future, leaving fishing households vulnerable to poverty and food insecurity. This study examines the role of small-scale fisheries in Vietnam in promoting food security and alleviating poverty within fishing households. Utilizing latent profile analysis, we categorize fishing households based on dimensions of poverty and food insecurity as well as explore the potential of fisheries management measures in eradicating poverty and improving food security. Our findings reveal that, small-scale fisheries in Vietnam have significantly contributed to the well-being of fishing households, enhancing both income and food security. However, we identify two distinct groups of fishers. One group, representing 65 percent of households in our sample, is characterized by higher incomes and greater food security, is denoted in the study as “protected households”. The second group, comprising 35 percent of our sample, faces challenges in both dimensions, and is denoted as “vulnerable households”. Protected households are more likely to be located in areas where access limitations are enforced, often accompanied by livelihood enhancement opportunities. These results suggest that future policies for small-scale fisheries could benefit from developing synergies among various interventions targeting the conservation of fisheries resources, poverty alleviation, and food security.
{"title":"The dual role of small-scale fisheries on food security and poverty eradication in Vietnam: A latent profile analysis","authors":"Quach Thi Khanh Ngoc , Bui Bich Xuan , Pham Khanh Nam","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107300","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107300","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Small-scale fisheries are crucial for supporting the welfare of coastal communities. Nonetheless, in Vietnam prolonged overexploitation and inadequate management have led small-scale fisheries into an uncertain future, leaving fishing households vulnerable to poverty and food insecurity. This study examines the role of small-scale fisheries in Vietnam in promoting food security and alleviating poverty within fishing households. Utilizing latent profile analysis, we categorize fishing households based on dimensions of poverty and food insecurity as well as explore the potential of fisheries management measures in eradicating poverty and improving food security. Our findings reveal that, small-scale fisheries in Vietnam have significantly contributed to the well-being of fishing households, enhancing both income and food security. However, we identify two distinct groups of fishers. One group, representing 65 percent of households in our sample, is characterized by higher incomes and greater food security, is denoted in the study as “protected households”. The second group, comprising 35 percent of our sample, faces challenges in both dimensions, and is denoted as “vulnerable households”. Protected households are more likely to be located in areas where access limitations are enforced, often accompanied by livelihood enhancement opportunities. These results suggest that future policies for small-scale fisheries could benefit from developing synergies among various interventions targeting the conservation of fisheries resources, poverty alleviation, and food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107300"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-17DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107254
Philippa Osim Inyang
This paper critically examines the legal potential of citizen science, enhanced by mobile technology, as a tool for advancing environmental justice and enforcing the right to a healthy environment in Africa. In light of widespread environmental degradation and weak regulatory capacity, it explores how citizen-generated environmental data can bridge accountability gaps in both formal governance systems and judicial processes. Drawing on African communitarian traditions, international environmental law, and comparative jurisprudence, including landmark cases from the US and Europe, it interrogates the evidentiary and procedural barriers that currently undermine the admissibility of citizen data in legal forums. The paper argues for comprehensive legal reform encompassing constitutional interpretation, legislative innovation, regulatory clarity and judicial openness to non-traditional evidence. By integrating citizen science into the legal architecture of environmental governance, African states can democratise environmental monitoring, empower marginalised communities and strengthen compliance with environmental obligations. The study contributes to emerging interdisciplinary discourse at the intersection of environmental law, human rights and digital technology in the Global South.
{"title":"Citizen science, mobile technology, and environmental justice in Africa: rights-based legal pathways for community empowerment","authors":"Philippa Osim Inyang","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107254","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107254","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper critically examines the legal potential of citizen science, enhanced by mobile technology, as a tool for advancing environmental justice and enforcing the right to a healthy environment in Africa. In light of widespread environmental degradation and weak regulatory capacity, it explores how citizen-generated environmental data can bridge accountability gaps in both formal governance systems and judicial processes. Drawing on African communitarian traditions, international environmental law, and comparative jurisprudence, including landmark cases from the US and Europe, it interrogates the evidentiary and procedural barriers that currently undermine the admissibility of citizen data in legal forums. The paper argues for comprehensive legal reform encompassing constitutional interpretation, legislative innovation, regulatory clarity and judicial openness to non-traditional evidence. By integrating citizen science into the legal architecture of environmental governance, African states can democratise environmental monitoring, empower marginalised communities and strengthen compliance with environmental obligations. The study contributes to emerging interdisciplinary discourse at the intersection of environmental law, human rights and digital technology in the Global South.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107254"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-16DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107285
Roxanne Kovacs
Many assume that user-fees deter healthcare-seeking in low- and middle-income countries and are therefore partially responsible for high mortality rates. This paper estimates the causal effect of a national user-fee removal programme in Kenya on healthcare seeking and mortality, using a difference-in-differences design exploiting variation in treatment intensity across local communities. Results indicate a small increase in the uptake of antenatal care but no average effects on facility delivery, mortality or the quality of healthcare. Several potential mechanisms are examined and findings suggest heterogeneous treatment effects based on the physical accessibility of care as well as community-level preferences regarding household decision-making.
{"title":"Does free maternity care improve uptake and save lives? Quasi-experimental evidence from Kenya","authors":"Roxanne Kovacs","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Many assume that user-fees deter healthcare-seeking in low- and middle-income countries and are therefore partially responsible for high mortality rates. This paper estimates the causal effect of a national user-fee removal programme in Kenya on healthcare seeking and mortality, using a difference-in-differences design exploiting variation in treatment intensity across local communities. Results indicate a small increase in the uptake of antenatal care but no average effects on facility delivery, mortality or the quality of healthcare. Several potential mechanisms are examined and findings suggest heterogeneous treatment effects based on the physical accessibility of care as well as community-level preferences regarding household decision-making.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107285"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790904","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-15DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107281
Diane Zovighian
Clientelism is a defining feature of electoral politics in Nigeria, where political parties prioritize clientelist transfers to core supporters over transfers to swing voters or public goods appeals. What sustains these clientelist partisan pacts? Why are core voters more intensively targeted by clientelist transfers? Drawing on original survey data and key informant interviews, this article shows that core voters possess attributes that make them especially attractive to clientelist parties seeking to reduce defection risks. First, they are more deeply embedded in social networks on which parties can rely to gather information on their preferences and electoral behavior. Second, they are more likely to rely on their networks for voting advice or information. Third, they are more likely to perceive that the party can monitor their votes. And finally, they are more likely to comply with the clientelist bargain. This makes them in effect a safer bet for clientelist investments. In that context, clientelist targeting leads parties to sustain a core-support group of reliable votes delivery, rather than expand distributive promises to non-core voters. The findings highlight the impotance of voter-level attributes – particularly social network embeddedness – in shaping clientelist targeting and sustaining clientelist partisan pacts.
{"title":"Clientelist politics in Nigeria: Core voters, control and compliance","authors":"Diane Zovighian","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107281","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107281","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Clientelism<!--> <!-->is a defining feature of electoral politics in Nigeria, where political parties prioritize clientelist transfers to core supporters over transfers to swing voters or public goods appeals.<!--> <!-->What sustains these clientelist partisan pacts?<!--> <!-->Why are core voters more intensively targeted by clientelist transfers? Drawing on original survey data and key informant interviews, this article shows that core voters possess attributes that make them especially attractive to clientelist parties seeking to reduce defection risks. First, they are more deeply embedded in social networks on which parties can rely to gather information on their preferences and electoral behavior. Second, they are more likely to rely on their networks for voting advice or information. Third, they are more likely to<!--> <em>perceive</em> <!-->that the party can monitor their votes. And finally, they are more likely to comply with the clientelist bargain. This makes them in effect a safer bet for clientelist investments. In that context, clientelist targeting leads parties to sustain a core-support group of reliable votes delivery, rather than expand distributive promises to non-core voters. The findings highlight the impotance of voter-level attributes – particularly social network embeddedness – in shaping clientelist targeting and sustaining clientelist partisan pacts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107281"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145790998","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
International migration offers significant economic opportunities for developing countries, but it can also separate parents from their children, potentially harming child development. This paper examines the effects of restricting mothers’ international migration on left-behind children, leveraging a unique Sri Lankan policy that restricted mothers with children under age five from migrating abroad for employment. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the results reveal the following: First, the policy reduces international migration, increasing mothers’ presence at home. Second, policy exposure leads to better healthcare outcomes, including a significant reduction in inpatient stays, particularly treatment for illnesses. This improvement appears to result from increased childcare and monitoring by mothers. Although the policy decreases remittances from abroad, this reduction is offset by an increase in domestic remittances. Furthermore, we find evidence of positive spillovers on non-targeted children with younger, policy-targeted siblings, as indicated by reduced grade retention. These findings highlight the trade-offs between a mother’s presence and the economic opportunities associated with international migration in shaping human capital development.
{"title":"Restricting mothers’ international migration and human capital investment","authors":"Takuya Hasebe , Yuma Noritomo , Bilesha Weeraratne","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107284","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107284","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International migration offers significant economic opportunities for developing countries, but it can also separate parents from their children, potentially harming child development. This paper examines the effects of restricting mothers’ international migration on left-behind children, leveraging a unique Sri Lankan policy that restricted mothers with children under age five from migrating abroad for employment. Using a difference-in-differences approach, the results reveal the following: First, the policy reduces international migration, increasing mothers’ presence at home. Second, policy exposure leads to better healthcare outcomes, including a significant reduction in inpatient stays, particularly treatment for illnesses. This improvement appears to result from increased childcare and monitoring by mothers. Although the policy decreases remittances from abroad, this reduction is offset by an increase in domestic remittances. Furthermore, we find evidence of positive spillovers on non-targeted children with younger, policy-targeted siblings, as indicated by reduced grade retention. These findings highlight the trade-offs between a mother’s presence and the economic opportunities associated with international migration in shaping human capital development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107284"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145738731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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