Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107331
Viljar Haavik , Alessio Iocchi
Why have decentralization reforms in Liberia, despite consistent external support, repeatedly faltered? The conventional explanation of lacking political ownership, rooted in corruption and elite self-interest, offers only a partial answer, risking circularity: reforms fail because of the very governance deficits they seek to address. Drawing on original fieldwork, this article explores how a perceived lack of political ownership is enacted in practice. It argues that Liberian political and bureaucratic elites are strategically choosing not to ‘own’ reforms to balance domestic political risks and donor expectations, producing a ‘twisted win-win’ dynamic. This concept helps unpack how a “lack of ownership” in Liberia functions in practice: state actors demonstrate limited commitment to sustain donor support while minimizing threats to entrenched power structures and privileges, and donors accept ‘good enough’ progress to satisfy institutional and reporting needs. The result is a dynamic that sustains piecemeal reform without altering the underlying neopatrimonial order. Liberia showcases how political ownership in aid-dependent contexts is relational, bounded, and co-produced rather than being merely absent.
{"title":"Decentralization and the persistence of centralized power in Liberia","authors":"Viljar Haavik , Alessio Iocchi","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107331","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107331","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why have decentralization reforms in Liberia, despite consistent external support, repeatedly faltered? The conventional explanation of lacking political ownership, rooted in corruption and elite self-interest, offers only a partial answer, risking circularity: reforms fail because of the very governance deficits they seek to address. Drawing on original fieldwork, this article explores how a perceived lack of political ownership is enacted in practice. It argues that Liberian political and bureaucratic elites are strategically choosing not to ‘own’ reforms to balance domestic political risks and donor expectations, producing a ‘twisted win-win’ dynamic. This concept helps unpack how a “lack of ownership” in Liberia functions in practice: state actors demonstrate limited commitment to sustain donor support while minimizing threats to entrenched power structures and privileges, and donors accept ‘good enough’ progress to satisfy institutional and reporting needs. The result is a dynamic that sustains piecemeal reform without altering the underlying neopatrimonial order. Liberia showcases how political ownership in aid-dependent contexts is relational, bounded, and co-produced rather than being merely absent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107331"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-09DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107333
Nicholas J. Sitko , Irene Staffieri , Jan Martin Rossi , Esther Heesemann , Jessika Kluth , Romina Cavatassi , Priti Rajagopalan , Luis Becerra Valbuena , Carlo Azzarri
Wealth status, gender, and age are widely acknowledged to influence a person’s vulnerability to climate stressors. However, there is a lack of multicounty evidence to quantify the magnitude and nature of these vulnerabilities, particularly in rural areas. Using cross-sectional household survey data from 24 countries combined with georeferenced temperature and precipitation data, we estimate the differential effects of extreme precipitation, extreme heat, and long-run temperature changes on the total, on-farm, and off-farm incomes of poor households, households headed by women and younger people in rural areas, relative to their comparison groups. We show that every day of extreme heat is associated with a reduction of the total income of poor and female-headed households by between 0.8 and 1.5 per cent, respectively, relative to non-poor and male-headed households. Conversely, households headed by younger people increase their total incomes relative to households headed by older people when extreme events occur through relative increases in off-farm income. Moreover, we show that a 1 degree Celsius increase in long-run average temperatures compels poor rural households to rely more heavily on agricultural income sources, compared to non-poor households, while female headed households lose 37 per cent more of their income relative to male-headed households. We conclude that income vulnerabilities to climate stressors in rural areas are diverse and distinct, and that addressing these differences is essential for achieving our collective ambition to reduce global poverty in the context of climate change.
{"title":"Climate stressors and rural incomes: multi-country evidence on wealth, gender, and age disparities","authors":"Nicholas J. Sitko , Irene Staffieri , Jan Martin Rossi , Esther Heesemann , Jessika Kluth , Romina Cavatassi , Priti Rajagopalan , Luis Becerra Valbuena , Carlo Azzarri","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107333","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107333","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Wealth status, gender, and age are widely acknowledged to influence a person’s vulnerability to climate stressors. However, there is a lack of multicounty evidence to quantify the magnitude and nature of these vulnerabilities, particularly in rural areas. Using cross-sectional household survey data from 24 countries combined with georeferenced temperature and precipitation data, we estimate the differential effects of extreme precipitation, extreme heat, and long-run temperature changes on the total, on-farm, and off-farm incomes of poor households, households headed by women and younger people in rural areas, relative to their comparison groups. We show that every day of extreme heat is associated with a reduction of the total income of poor and female-headed households by between 0.8 and 1.5 per cent, respectively, relative to non-poor and male-headed households. Conversely, households headed by younger people increase their total incomes relative to households headed by older people when extreme events occur through relative increases in off-farm income. Moreover, we show that a 1 degree Celsius increase in long-run average temperatures compels poor rural households to rely more heavily on agricultural income sources, compared to non-poor households, while female headed households lose 37 per cent more of their income relative to male-headed households. We conclude that income vulnerabilities to climate stressors in rural areas are diverse and distinct, and that addressing these differences is essential for achieving our collective ambition to reduce global poverty in the context of climate change.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107333"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190095","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107309
Mariano Bosch , Danilo Silva , Juan M. Villa
This paper examines a large-scale behavioral intervention to boost social security compliance among self-employed workers. In 2014, the Brazilian Ministry of Social Security gradually delivered mailed booklets to nearly 3 million self-employed workers, reminding them of their obligation to contribute to social security. We find that sending the booklet increased payments by 15 percent and compliance rates by 7 percentage points. This effect is concentrated in the delivery month and fades after three months, a pattern of action and backsliding. Heterogeneity in effects suggests that the impact was stronger in wealthier municipalities, consistent with the prepayment of multiple contributions and pointing to administrative simplification as the likely dominant mechanism. Our results highlight the potential of behavioral interventions to increase social security compliance in developing countries, particularly among the self-employed.
{"title":"A behavioral approach to social security compliance targeting self-employed workers in Brazil","authors":"Mariano Bosch , Danilo Silva , Juan M. Villa","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines a large-scale behavioral intervention to boost social security compliance among self-employed workers. In 2014, the Brazilian Ministry of Social Security gradually delivered mailed booklets to nearly 3 million self-employed workers, reminding them of their obligation to contribute to social security. We find that sending the booklet increased payments by 15 percent and compliance rates by 7 percentage points. This effect is concentrated in the delivery month and fades after three months, a pattern of action and backsliding. Heterogeneity in effects suggests that the impact was stronger in wealthier municipalities, consistent with the prepayment of multiple contributions and pointing to administrative simplification as the likely dominant mechanism. Our results highlight the potential of behavioral interventions to increase social security compliance in developing countries, particularly among the self-employed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107309"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107318
Eduardo Dargent , Skarlet Olivera
Massive internal migration in the sixties, a severe economic and social crisis in the eighties, and a radical neoliberal transport reform adopted in 1991 (Legislative Decree N° 651–1991) led to the emergence of a disorganized, inefficient, and costly transport system in Lima, Peru. In dialogue with the business power and policy feedback literature, we show that this system is rooted in the empowerment of leading private formal and informal transport actors and in the weakening of state transport control offices. These arrangements constitute what experts call a “policy trap,” a situation in which a trajectory is adopted that is difficult to escape due to prior reforms, public policies, and/or government decisions (Holland, 2017). This article analyzes two reform attempts to break the policy trap: the Integrated Transportation System (SIT) reform of 2011 and the creation of the Urban Transport Authority (ATU) in 2018. By focusing on the implementation of these reforms, we demonstrate the structural and instrumental power of informal and low-quality formal actors that sustain the system’s continuity, particularly their successful strategies of resistance and adaptation to the reforms. We document how these actors engage politically to oppose the implementation of reforms, lobby and support political actors who can represent their interests, and adopt new modes of informal transport to circumvent or profit from the new conditions promoted by the reforms. These findings exemplify the considerable challenges that middle- and low-income states face in adopting and sustaining reforms to regulate informal activities, such as transport.
{"title":"The order behind disorder: informality, power, and the resilience of a transport policy trap in Lima, Peru","authors":"Eduardo Dargent , Skarlet Olivera","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Massive internal migration in the sixties, a severe economic and social crisis in the eighties, and a radical neoliberal transport reform adopted in 1991 (Legislative Decree N° 651–1991) led to the emergence of a disorganized, inefficient, and costly transport system in Lima, Peru. In dialogue with the business power and policy feedback literature, we show that this system is rooted in the empowerment of leading private formal and informal transport actors and in the weakening of state transport control offices. These arrangements constitute what experts call a “policy trap,” a situation in which a trajectory is adopted that is difficult to escape due to prior reforms, public policies, and/or government decisions (<span><span>Holland, 2017</span></span>). This article analyzes two reform attempts to break the policy trap: the Integrated Transportation System (SIT) reform of 2011 and the creation of the Urban Transport Authority (ATU) in 2018. By focusing on the implementation of these reforms, we demonstrate the structural and instrumental power of informal and low-quality formal actors that sustain the system’s continuity, particularly their successful strategies of resistance and adaptation to the reforms. We document how these actors engage politically to oppose the implementation of reforms, lobby and support political actors who can represent their interests, and adopt new modes of informal transport to circumvent or profit from the new conditions promoted by the reforms. These findings exemplify the considerable challenges that middle- and low-income states face in adopting and sustaining reforms to regulate informal activities, such as transport.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107318"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107295
Bina Agarwal , Shamindra Nath Roy , Shiva Chakravarti Sharma
Can political representation by indigenous communities – often seen as stewards of forests – help enhance forest conservation? Or would indigenous political control over forests catalyse greater extraction for revenue gains? Does the level of representation matter? This paper addresses these under-researched questions, drawing on India’s multi-layered enactments which granted Scheduled Tribes political representation, and hence influence over local resources including forests, in constituencies reserved for them in state assemblies and village councils.
Taking Chhattisgarh state as an example, geospatial technologies are used for accessing forest cover, village boundaries, and village characteristics, to compare the state’s 20,000-odd villages across diverse reserved and unreserved categories, over almost two decades, 2001–2019. It differentiates between Assembly Constituency (AC) reservations and PESA (Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas) reservations – the former at the assembly level, the latter at the village council level – and between delimitation time periods.
Over 2001–2019, village area under forest cover is found to have increased by almost 240,000 ha for the 10,554 ever-reserved villages, constituting four times the increase in never-reserved villages. Also, over 2009–2019, regression analysis (using different specifications) shows that relative to never-reserved villages the likelihood of an increase in percentage village area under forest cover was significantly greater in solely AC reserved villages, but significantly lower in solely PESA villages. Rural non-village forests also improved under AC reservation. This suggests a policy win–win for assembly-level representation in promoting both social inclusion and conservation. Divergent interests could, however, stymie village-level outcomes, needing additional incentives to conserve. These results also hold lessons for other countries with large forest areas and substantial indigenous populations.
土著社区的政治代表——通常被视为森林的管理者——能帮助加强森林保护吗？或者土著对森林的政治控制会促进更多的采伐以获得收入吗？代表的程度重要吗？本文解决了这些研究不足的问题，借鉴了印度的多层立法，赋予预定部落政治代表权，从而对包括森林在内的当地资源产生影响，在邦议会和村委会中为他们保留的选区。以恰蒂斯加尔邦为例，利用地理空间技术获取森林覆盖、村庄边界和村庄特征，在2001年至2019年的近20年时间里，对该邦2万多个不同保留和非保留类别的村庄进行比较。它区分了议会选区（AC）保留和村务委员会（Panchayat Extension to schedule Areas）保留（前者在议会一级，后者在村委会一级），并区分了划界时间。在2001年至2019年期间，10,554个被保留的村庄的森林覆盖面积增加了近24万公顷，是未被保留的村庄的四倍。此外，在2009-2019年期间，回归分析（使用不同规格）表明，相对于未保留的村庄，单独保留AC的村庄森林覆盖面积百分比增加的可能性显着增加，而单独保留PESA的村庄森林覆盖面积百分比增加的可能性显着降低。农村非村庄森林在AC保留区下也得到改善。这表明，在促进社会包容和保护方面，议会一级代表的政策是双赢的。然而，不同的利益可能会阻碍村庄层面的成果，需要额外的激励措施来保护。这些结果也为其他拥有大片森林和大量土著人口的国家提供了经验教训。
{"title":"Can indigenous political representation improve forest conservation? India’s experience","authors":"Bina Agarwal , Shamindra Nath Roy , Shiva Chakravarti Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Can political representation by indigenous communities – often seen as stewards of forests – help enhance forest conservation? Or would indigenous political control over forests catalyse greater extraction for revenue gains? Does the level of representation matter? This paper addresses these under-researched questions, drawing on India’s multi-layered enactments which granted Scheduled Tribes political representation, and hence influence over local resources including forests, in constituencies reserved for them in state assemblies and village councils.</div><div>Taking Chhattisgarh state as an example, geospatial technologies are used for accessing forest cover, village boundaries, and village characteristics, to compare the state’s 20,000-odd villages across diverse reserved and unreserved categories, over almost two decades, 2001–2019. It differentiates between Assembly Constituency (AC) reservations and PESA (Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas) reservations – the former at the assembly level, the latter at the village council level – and between delimitation time periods.</div><div>Over 2001–2019, village area under forest cover is found to have increased by almost 240,000 ha for the 10,554 ever-reserved villages, constituting four times the increase in never-reserved villages. Also, over 2009–2019, regression analysis (using different specifications) shows that relative to never-reserved villages the likelihood of an increase in percentage village area under forest cover was significantly greater in solely AC reserved villages, but significantly <em>lower</em> in solely PESA villages. Rural non-village forests also improved under AC reservation. This suggests a policy win–win for assembly-level representation in promoting both social inclusion and conservation. Divergent interests could, however, stymie village-level outcomes, needing additional incentives to conserve. These results also hold lessons for other countries with large forest areas and substantial indigenous populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107295"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-03DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107332
Ekene ThankGod Emeka , Simplice A. Asongu , Vanessa S. Tchamyou
The purpose of this study is twofold: First, to investigate the unconditional impact of gender inclusion on Africa’s structural transformation. Second, to investigate the role of ICT diffusion in moderating the impact of gender inclusion on Africa’s structural transformation. The analysis focuses on 48 African countries, utilizing data from 2010 to 2023. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is employed as the baseline estimation technique, with the Driscoll-Kraay Fixed Effects regression adopted as a robustness check. To enhance policy relevance, gender inclusion is measured using indicators like female labor force participation, female political representation, female self-employment, and female employment. ICT diffusion is examined in terms of access, usage, and skills. The estimation strategy is designed to interact various components of ICT diffusion with gender inclusion indicators, to positively influence Africa’s structural transformation. The study finds that, although gender inclusion has an unconditional negative impact on Africa’s structural transformation, ICT diffusion serves as a positive moderating factor, mitigating this adverse effect. Specifically, the ICT diffusion thresholds required to offset the negative impact of gender inclusion on structural transformation are as follows: (i) for manufacturing value-added, 8.23%–11.33% for ICT usage, 11.67% for ICT access, 185%–195% for ICT skills and 1.89% for overall ICT diffusion and (ii) for industrial value added, 6.78%–13.18% for ICT usage and 6.67% for ICT access. The policy implications of these findings are discussed in alignment with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals.
{"title":"ICT diffusion, gender inclusion, and structural transformation in Africa: A synergistic analysis for sustainable development","authors":"Ekene ThankGod Emeka , Simplice A. Asongu , Vanessa S. Tchamyou","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107332","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107332","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The purpose of this study is twofold: First, to investigate the unconditional impact of gender inclusion on Africa’s structural transformation. Second, to investigate the role of ICT diffusion in moderating the impact of gender inclusion on Africa’s structural transformation. The analysis focuses on 48 African countries, utilizing data from 2010 to 2023. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is employed as the baseline estimation technique, with the Driscoll-Kraay Fixed Effects regression adopted as a robustness check. To enhance policy relevance, gender inclusion is measured using indicators like female labor force participation, female political representation, female self-employment, and female employment. ICT diffusion is examined in terms of access, usage, and skills. The estimation strategy is designed to interact various components of ICT diffusion with gender inclusion indicators, to positively influence Africa’s structural transformation. The study finds that, although gender inclusion has an unconditional negative impact on Africa’s structural transformation, ICT diffusion serves as a positive moderating factor, mitigating this adverse effect. Specifically, the ICT diffusion thresholds required to offset the negative impact of gender inclusion on structural transformation are as follows: (i) for manufacturing value-added, 8.23%–11.33% for ICT usage, 11.67% for ICT access, 185%–195% for ICT skills and 1.89% for overall ICT diffusion and (ii) for industrial value added, 6.78%–13.18% for ICT usage and 6.67% for ICT access. The policy implications of these findings are discussed in alignment with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107332"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190094","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-02DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107334
Nidhiya Menon , Yana van der Meulen Rodgers
This article provides an overview of the history of economic thought on natural resource extraction, which has long been considered an enclave industry with few benefits for areas beyond the local economy. We focus on more recent scholarship examining the social impacts of natural resource extraction, emphasizing gender-related outcomes and determinants. An important lesson from this scholarship is that it is difficult to discuss sustainable development in its contemporary sense without paying due diligence to the gender dimensions of natural resource extraction. A lesson highlighted is that the “resource curse” view of natural capital may not be as pervasive as previously thought.
{"title":"Dutch disease and the resource curse: the progression of views from exchange rates to women’s agency and well-being","authors":"Nidhiya Menon , Yana van der Meulen Rodgers","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107334","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107334","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article provides an overview of the history of economic thought on natural resource extraction, which has long been considered an enclave industry with few benefits for areas beyond the local economy. We focus on more recent scholarship examining the social impacts of natural resource extraction, emphasizing gender-related outcomes and determinants. An important lesson from this scholarship is that it is difficult to discuss sustainable development in its contemporary sense without paying due diligence to the gender dimensions of natural resource extraction. A lesson highlighted is that the “resource curse” view of natural capital may not be as pervasive as previously thought.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107334"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-17DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107316
Xu Zhang , Shoufa Hu , Muhammad Abubakr Naeem , Abdul Rauf
This study examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the resilience of national energy consumption. We develop a novel measure of the resilience of energy consumption, considering both scale and temporal dimensions, and employ a panel data model to examine the impact of climate change vulnerability on this resilience. The findings indicate that, despite increasing global uncertainties, the resilience of energy consumption exhibits a rising trend in most countries. Climate change vulnerability exerts a significant negative effect on the resilience of energy consumption: a one-unit increase in climate change vulnerability results in a 0.4307-unit decrease in the absorption intensity of the resilience of energy consumption. Furthermore, through an in-depth analysis of its underlying mechanisms, we find that this impact primarily occurs through a weakening of energy supply, a reduction in energy intensity, the enhancement of governmental environmental regulations, a distortion of energy prices, and the instability of energy technologies. Our study contributes to the literature on energy supply and demand balance, specifically within the discourse on energy consumption in the face of climate change challenges. It broadens the concept of resilience to encompass energy consumption and introduces new resilience metrics, namely absorption intensity and absorption duration, thereby enhancing the comprehensiveness and comparability of resilience assessments. These findings are pivotal for improving strategic decision-making regarding energy in the context of increasing climate change challenges.
{"title":"Climate change vulnerability and the resilience of energy consumption","authors":"Xu Zhang , Shoufa Hu , Muhammad Abubakr Naeem , Abdul Rauf","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the resilience of national energy consumption. We develop a novel measure of the resilience of energy consumption, considering both scale and temporal dimensions, and employ a panel data model to examine the impact of climate change vulnerability on this resilience. The findings indicate that, despite increasing global uncertainties, the resilience of energy consumption exhibits a rising trend in most countries. Climate change vulnerability exerts a significant negative effect on the resilience of energy consumption: a one-unit increase in climate change vulnerability results in a 0.4307-unit decrease in the absorption intensity of the resilience of energy consumption. Furthermore, through an in-depth analysis of its underlying mechanisms, we find that this impact primarily occurs through a weakening of energy supply, a reduction in energy intensity, the enhancement of governmental environmental regulations, a distortion of energy prices, and the instability of energy technologies. Our study contributes to the literature on energy supply and demand balance, specifically within the discourse on energy consumption in the face of climate change challenges. It broadens the concept of resilience to encompass energy consumption and introduces new resilience metrics, namely absorption intensity and absorption duration, thereby enhancing the comprehensiveness and comparability of resilience assessments. These findings are pivotal for improving strategic decision-making regarding energy in the context of increasing climate change challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107316"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145982067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-02DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107335
François Bourguignon, Jean-Philippe Platteau
This short paper is an attempt to highlight the path trodden by development economists and scholars since Rostow published his famous book “The Take-Off into Self-Sustaining Growth”. It proceeds along three major themes: prerequisites or endogenous outcomes; abrupt and gradual changes; and the possibility of non-monotonous development. Its central conclusion is that significant advances have consisted of explorations of incremental changes and their interaction with abrupt shifts, and of applications of political economics to development, including investigations of the political sources of reform stalemate. The authors argue that these new approaches have enabled us to make progress toward a better understanding of the deep factors underpinning development successes or failures, whether temporary or more permanent.
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Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-06DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107337
Kasper Hoffmann , Christian Lund , Eric Batumike Banyanga , Alice Mugoli Nalunva , Mariève Pouliot
The relationship between land and violent conflict in Africa has long been a focal point for scholarly inquiry and development policy. According to an influential neo-Malthusian narrative, violent land conflicts erupt when land scarcity, population pressure, and state failure combine. In this paper we join a growing corpus of researchers arguing that the links between violent conflict and land scarcity are not linear, but embedded in complex and entangled social, economic and political processes. Using an extended case-study approach we explore land disputes in the Panzi neighbourhood of Bukavu, which is situated in the conflict-affected eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo and appears to embody a neo-Malthusian crisis. We present three main findings.
First, we demonstrate how large-scale violent conflict can create opportunities for new actors to reconfigure the political order, generating struggles and negotiations over public authority and land rights among a multitude of more or less self-proclaimed public authorities and land claimants.
Second, we show that although armed conflict reconfigures the links between public authority and land rights, it does not radically change how land is governed, or how people gain and hold on to property. Both before and after major political ruptures, people gain land rights through daily negotiations with competing public authorities.
Third, we show that these struggles and negotiations do not take place on a level playing field. Rather, well-connected and wealthy actors with access to military power tend to fare better in such contests.
Based on our research, we conclude that land scarcity functions as a contextual amplifier, rather than a direct cause of violent conflict. However, more research and conceptual work is needed to better understand this link.
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