World Development最新文献

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Barriers to humanitarian migration, victimization and integration outcomes: Evidence from Germany 人道主义移民的障碍、受害情况和融合结果：来自德国的证据

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106833

Teresa Freitas-Monteiro , Lars Ludolph

Asylum seekers who migrate from developing countries to Europe frequently experience victimization events during their journey. The consequences of these events for their economic integration into destination countries are not yet well explored. In this paper, we analyze how victimization during asylum seekers’ journeys affects their labor market integration in Germany by using survey data collected in the aftermath of the 2015 refugee crisis. Our data allow us to account for the exact timing and geography of migration, such that samples of physically victimized and nonvictimized refugees are balanced along a wide range of characteristics. We find that, compared to nonvictimized refugees, refugees who were physically victimized during their journey to Germany favor joining the labor force and taking up low-income employment rather than investing in host country human capital. To explain these findings, we explore a range of potential mechanisms and find suggestive evidence that experiencing physical victimization in vulnerable situations is not only associated with a decline in mental health but also with a “loss of future orientation” among physically victimized refugees, leading them to discount future payoffs more heavily.

从发展中国家移民到欧洲的寻求庇护者在旅途中经常会遇到受害事件。这些事件对他们融入目的地国经济的影响尚未得到很好的探讨。在本文中，我们利用 2015 年难民危机后收集的调查数据，分析了寻求庇护者在旅途中的受害事件如何影响他们融入德国的劳动力市场。我们的数据使我们能够考虑到移民的确切时间和地理位置，从而使身体受害和未受害难民的样本在广泛的特征上保持平衡。我们发现，与未受害难民相比，在前往德国途中受到人身伤害的难民更倾向于加入劳动力大军，从事低收入工作，而不是投资于东道国的人力资本。为了解释这些发现，我们探讨了一系列潜在的机制，并找到了暗示性的证据，即在脆弱的情况下遭受身体伤害不仅与心理健康下降有关，还与遭受身体伤害的难民的 "未来导向丧失 "有关，导致他们对未来回报的折扣更大。

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引用次数: 0

The empirics of and policies for sustainability in global value chains 全球价值链可持续性的经验和政策

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106850

Jann Lay , Stefan Pahl , Rainer Thiele

引用次数: 0

The data revolution in justice 司法领域的数据革命

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106834

Manuel Ramos-Maqueda , Daniel L. Chen

This article explores the transformative potential of data science in enhancing justice systems globally. Leveraging the increasing availability of judicial data and the advancements of the digital revolution, this paper demonstrates how policymakers can significantly improve access, efficiency, and fairness within justice systems—crucial components of economic development as discussed in a companion paper (Ramos-Maqueda and Chen, 2024). We introduce a comprehensive framework for evaluating, diagnosing, and experimenting with judicial processes to deepen our understanding of judicial performance using data science methodologies. Key areas of focus include the application of machine learning and “text-as-data” techniques to enhance efficiency and identify disparities in judicial rulings. Through detailed case studies and empirical evidence, we illustrate how these technologies can address systemic shortcomings and drive meaningful reforms. By identifying specific areas where data science can bridge existing gaps, we aim to provide actionable insights for policymakers. Our findings highlight the profound impact of data-driven approaches on fostering a more just society and promoting sustainable economic growth. The paper concludes by suggesting future research directions and practical applications of data science in judicial contexts to ensure continuous improvement and innovation.

本文探讨了数据科学在加强全球司法系统方面的变革潜力。本文利用司法数据日益增长的可用性和数字革命的进步，展示了政策制定者如何在司法系统中显著改善司法的可及性、效率和公平性--这正是经济发展的重要组成部分，这一点在另一篇论文（Ramos-Maqueda and Chen, 2024）中已有论述。我们介绍了一个评估、诊断和试验司法程序的综合框架，以利用数据科学方法加深我们对司法绩效的理解。重点领域包括应用机器学习和 "文本即数据 "技术来提高效率和识别司法裁决中的差异。通过详细的案例研究和经验证据，我们说明了这些技术如何解决系统性缺陷并推动有意义的改革。通过确定数据科学可以弥补现有差距的具体领域，我们旨在为政策制定者提供可行的见解。我们的研究结果凸显了数据驱动方法对促进社会更加公正和推动可持续经济增长的深远影响。本文最后提出了数据科学在司法领域的未来研究方向和实际应用，以确保持续改进和创新。

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引用次数: 0

What do aid recipients want? Public attitudes toward foreign aid in developing countries 受援国想要什么？发展中国家公众对外国援助的态度

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106815

Sung Eun Kim , Jong Hee Park , Inbok Rhee , Joonseok Yang

Individuals in developing countries are the ultimate end users of foreign aid. While the international donor community has emphasized the importance of aligning aid with recipient countries’ preferences, the literature on public opinion and foreign aid has remained largely focused on donors. Using an original conjoint experiment conducted in seven developing countries, we examine the determinants of public attitudes toward foreign aid in recipient countries. We find that the characteristics of donor countries and foreign aid projects significantly influence recipient attitudes, often more than the size of the aid packages themselves. Individuals in recipient countries consistently prefer aid from democracies and donors with transparent aid agencies, as well as aid delivered by international organizations rather than directly from donor countries’ aid agencies. These findings underscore the importance of multilateral aid agencies in aligning the preferences of donors and recipients.

发展中国家的个人是外国援助的最终用户。虽然国际捐助界一直在强调使援助符合受援国偏好的重要性，但有关公众舆论和对外援助的文献却主要集中在捐助方身上。我们利用在七个发展中国家进行的原创联合实验，研究了受援国公众对外援态度的决定因素。我们发现，援助国和外援项目的特点对受援国态度的影响很大，往往超过了援助规模本身。受援国的个人始终倾向于民主国家和援助机构透明的捐助国提供的援助，以及国际组织提供的援助，而不是捐助国援助机构直接提供的援助。这些发现强调了多边援助机构在协调捐助方和受援方偏好方面的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Restoring property rights: The effects of land restitution on credit access 恢复财产权：归还土地对获得信贷的影响

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106830

Francesco Bogliacino , Christian Posso , Marta Juanita Villaveces

Victims of forced displacement and land dispossession are eligible for land restitution under a law approved in Colombia in 2011. These households are materially deprived and have limited access to the formal labor market, often resorting to informal entrepreneurship to improve their living conditions. For this, they need access to credit. We estimate the causal effect of the law on credit access, using the timing of the restitution as the source of identification in an event study approach. We analyze administrative data from the program and data from the census of credit transactions. Our findings reveal, on the extensive margin, a substantial increase in beneficiaries’ likelihood of obtaining a loan and, on the intensive margin, an increase in loan size. These effects are most pronounced two years after land restitution when individuals obtain the full property right. Although complementary policies partly drive this effect, the data suggest that demand for credit also increases, signaling restored trust.

根据哥伦比亚 2011 年批准的一项法律，被迫流离失所和土地被剥夺的受害者有资格获得土地归还。这些家庭物质匮乏，进入正规劳动力市场的机会有限，往往通过非正规创业来改善生活条件。为此，他们需要获得信贷。我们采用事件研究法，以归还时间作为识别来源，估算了该法律对信贷获取的因果效应。我们分析了该计划的行政数据和信贷交易普查数据。我们的研究结果表明，在广义边际上，受益人获得贷款的可能性大大增加，而在狭义边际上，贷款规模也有所增加。这些效应在土地归还两年后个人获得完全产权时最为明显。虽然补充政策是产生这种效果的部分原因，但数据表明，对信贷的需求也在增加，这表明信任得到了恢复。

引用次数: 0

Who are the “vanguard” women? Strategies for identifying women going against economic participation norms across 49 low- and middle-income countries 谁是 "先锋 "妇女？在 49 个中低收入国家识别违背经济参与规范的妇女的战略

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106846

Anaise Williams , Colleen Stuart , Nancy Perrin , Lori Heise , Philip Anglewicz , Michele R. Decker

Women’s empowerment and poverty alleviation are two key factors for successful and equitable international development. Norms surrounding women’s economic participation and economic agency change over time, with some individuals achieving economic empowerment earlier than others. These “vanguard” women represent the leading edge of change. The objective of this study is to discuss and compare methodological strategies for creating a measure that captures the extent to which a woman’s actions exceed community norms regarding economic participation and agency. We refer to this measure as the “Vanguard Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE) Index.” The Demographic and Health Surveys for 49 countries were used to capture community-level WEE norms using 8 WEE measures. To identify whether a community is non-normative for a WEE item, we explore four strategies, inclusive of two thresholds and two approaches for middle-prevalence communities. Using the community assignment, we construct the individual-level Vanguard WEE Index that captures the number of WEE items a woman has that are non-normative, i.e. vanguard, in her community. We validate this index through associating it with a validated index on women’s financial discrimination. Subsequently, the characteristics of “vanguard” women were assessed through mixed effects modeling. Women who register higher on the Vanguard WEE Index are likely to be older, poorer, and live in rural communities. This study is the first to offer a valid method for measuring the extent that a woman goes against the community norm on economic participation and agency in low- and middle-income settings. The results outline a strategy for contextualizing women’s economic empowerment within that setting’s normative context. Practitioners and policy-makers can use this index when implementing economic empowerment programs to identify those who are pushing the needle in their community, as these women may be critical changemakers for gender equity broadly.

妇女赋权和减贫是国际发展取得成功和公平的两个关键因素。围绕妇女的经济参与和经济能动性的规范会随着时间的推移而改变，有些人比其他人更早实现经济赋权。这些 "先锋 "妇女代表着变革的前沿。本研究的目的是讨论和比较各种方法策略，以建立一种衡量标准，捕捉妇女的行为在多大程度上超越了社区关于经济参与和代理的规范。我们将这一指标称为 "先锋妇女经济赋权（WEE）指数"。我们使用 49 个国家的人口与健康调查，通过 8 个 WEE 指标来捕捉社区层面的 WEE 规范。为了确定一个社区的 WEE 项目是否不规范，我们探索了四种策略，包括两种阈值和两种针对中等流行率社区的方法。通过社区分配，我们构建了个人层面的先锋 WEE 指数，该指数反映了妇女在其所在社区中拥有的非规范 WEE 项目（即先锋项目）的数量。我们将这一指数与一个经过验证的妇女经济歧视指数联系起来，对其进行验证。随后，我们通过混合效应模型对 "先锋 "女性的特征进行了评估。在 "先锋 WEE 指数 "中排名较高的女性可能年龄较大、较为贫穷，并且居住在农村社区。这项研究首次提供了一种有效的方法，用于衡量在中低收入环境中，妇女在多大程度上违背了社区关于经济参与和代理的规范。研究结果概述了在该环境的规范背景下赋予妇女经济权力的策略。实践者和政策制定者在实施经济赋权计划时，可以利用这一指数来识别那些在社区中推动工作的妇女，因为这些妇女可能是性别平等的关键变革者。

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引用次数: 0

Rethinking climate conflicts: The role of climate action and inaction 重新思考气候冲突：气候行动和不行动的作用

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106845

Tobias Ide

The climate-conflict nexus has attracted significant academic and policy interest, but such discussions are often based on a narrow conception of the phenomenon. This article proposes a broader understanding of climate conflicts, which can be related to (1) the direct impacts of climate inaction (e.g., activism for ambitious climate change mitigation), (2) the direct impacts of climate action (e.g., resistance against fossil fuel subsidy cuts), (3) the indirect impacts of climate inaction (e.g., communal tensions over water in vulnerable locations), and (4) the indirect impacts of climate action (e.g., opposition against mining for renewable energies). After assessing existing evidence on these four types of climate conflicts, I outline the benefits of such a broader understanding: It reveals that climate conflicts are widespread and inevitable, including in the Global North. Such a rethinking enables an integrative analysis of the manifold teleconnections and trade-offs in the climate-conflict nexus, hence highlighting the relevance of conflict sensitivity in climate policy and environmental governance. Finally, this broader understanding of climate conflicts enables productive exchanges across different streams of research, including securitisation, political ecology, and decolonial approaches.

气候与冲突的关系引起了学术界和政策界的极大兴趣，但这些讨论往往基于对这一现象的狭隘概念。本文提出了对气候冲突的更广义理解，它可以涉及：（1）气候不作为的直接影响（例如，为减缓气候变化而积极行动）；（2）气候行动的直接影响（例如，反对削减化石燃料补贴）；（3）气候不作为的间接影响（例如，脆弱地区因水资源而产生的社区紧张关系）；以及（4）气候行动的间接影响（例如，反对开采可再生能源）。在评估了有关这四类气候冲突的现有证据之后，我概述了这种更广泛理解的益处：它揭示了气候冲突的普遍性和不可避免性，包括在全球北方地区。这种重新思考使我们能够综合分析气候与冲突之间多方面的相互联系和权衡，从而突出冲突敏感性在气候政策和环境治理中的相关性。最后，对气候冲突的这种更广泛的理解有助于不同研究流派之间进行富有成效的交流，包括安全化、政治生态学和非殖民化方法。

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引用次数: 0

Water affordability challenges in Latin America and the Caribbean: Accounting for coping costs due to reliance on multiple, non-exclusive sources 拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的水负担能力挑战：计算因依赖多种非排他性来源而产生的应对成本

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106825

Roberto Martínez-Espiñeira , María Pérez-Urdiales

Standard water affordability measures that only account for expenditure on piped water are unlikely to adequately capture the situation of all users in developing countries, who often experience water service quality issues and must rely on coping strategies. Our analysis establishes a foundational framework for systematically incorporating coping costs into assessing affordability metrics. Moreover, we propose adjusting these metrics based on normative judgments regarding the necessity of these coping strategies. We exploit nationally representative household-level data from 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, providing, for the first time, a regional perspective on water affordability We show that when coping costs, which disproportionately impact individuals in the lowest 20% income bracket, are considered, the share of income spent on water significantly exceeds conventionally accepted benchmarks. While our analysis does not reveal substantial differences between adjusted and unadjusted water affordability, our approach may yield more pronounced disparities in other developing countries. These findings, complemented by our identification of characteristics associated with water affordability challenges, provide relevant information for shaping policies aimed at guaranteeing safe and affordable access to water for all.

仅考虑自来水支出的标准水负担能力衡量标准不可能充分反映发展中国家所有用户的情况，因为他们经常遇到供水服务质量问题，必须依靠应对策略。我们的分析为系统地将应对成本纳入可负担性指标评估建立了一个基础框架。此外，我们还建议根据对这些应对策略必要性的规范判断来调整这些指标。我们利用拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区 18 个国家具有全国代表性的家庭数据，首次从地区角度对水资源的可负担性进行了分析。我们的分析表明，当考虑到应对成本时（应对成本对收入最低的 20% 人口的影响尤为严重），用于水的支出在收入中所占比例大大超过了传统的公认基准。虽然我们的分析并未显示调整后和未调整后的水负担能力之间存在实质性差异，但我们的方法可能会在其他发展中国家产生更明显的差异。这些发现，加上我们对与水负担能力挑战相关的特征的识别，为制定旨在保障所有人都能获得安全和负担得起的水的政策提供了相关信息。

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引用次数: 0

Violent Conflicts and Education: The LRA Insurgency in Northern Uganda Revisited 暴力冲突与教育：再论乌干达北部的上帝抵抗军叛乱

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106822

Douglas Kazibwe

I investigate the impact of the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) insurgency on educational outcomes in Northern Uganda, using a Difference–in–Differences (DiD) model that leverages variations in conflict intensity across birth cohorts and geographic locations. The results show that individuals exposed to the conflict experience declines in completed years of schooling, primary school completion, and literacy, with varying effects by gender and place of residence. The study also explores supply and demand mechanisms, finding that reduced school construction and repairs, overcrowding, and increased studen–teacher ratios due to displacement exacerbate these educational setbacks. These mechanisms are crucial for understanding war’s broader impact on households, communities, and social services.

我利用差异模型（DiD）研究了上帝抵抗军（LRA）叛乱对乌干达北部教育成果的影响，该模型利用了不同出生组群和地理位置的冲突强度差异。结果表明，受冲突影响的个人在完成学业年数、小学毕业率和识字率方面都有所下降，不同性别和居住地的影响也各不相同。研究还探讨了供需机制，发现学校建设和维修减少、过度拥挤以及流离失所导致的师生比例增加加剧了这些教育挫折。这些机制对于了解战争对家庭、社区和社会服务的广泛影响至关重要。

引用次数: 0

Perceptions of injustices in the struggle for scarce critical lands: Farmer-herder conflict and violence escalation in the Benue-Nasarawa borderland 在争夺稀缺重要土地的斗争中对不公正的看法：贝努埃-纳萨拉瓦边境地区农民-牧民冲突与暴力升级

IF 5.4 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106824

Cletus Famous Nwankwo

Studies on farmer-herder conflicts in Africa have concentrated on how scarcity of resources, marginalization, ethno-religious and political factors and institutional and governance failures have engendered the conflicts. Little attention is paid to how perceptions of injustices contribute to the escalation of the conflicts and violence. Thus, this paper examines the escalation of farmer-herder conflict and violence in the Benue-Nasarawa borderland in Nigeria from the perspective of natural resource scarcity and perceptions of injustices. The study uses interviews and field observations for data collection. It uses a political ecology approach to clarify the material interests underlying the conflict stemming from grievances regarding crop damage and cattle killings. The political ecology approach helps to analyze how the acquisition and privatization of wetlands by agro-industrial projects increased the resource competition between pastoralists and farmers, resulting in more crop damage by herders’ cattle and cattle theft/killings by farmers. Then, it uses relative deprivation theory and social injustice perspectives to explore how the perceptions of injustices about managing the disagreement concerning crop damage by herders’ cattle and cattle theft/killings by farmers following increased resource competition escalate the conflict. It argues that state intervention, notably the anti-open grazing law, amplifies the perceptions of procedural and restorative injustices, prompting violent responses from pastoralists and counter-attacks from farmers. Contrary to the political ecology perspective that often attributes the conflict to state policies marginalizing pastoralists, I argue that material interests are at the heart of the conflict, with perceptions of injustices escalating it into violence. The paper suggests that the analysis of the conflicts can be improved by incorporating political ecology, social justice and relative deprivation perspectives, which arguably improves the understanding of how resource scarcity leads to conflict intensification and escalation of violence.

关于非洲农民与牧民冲突的研究主要集中在资源匮乏、边缘化、民族宗教和政治因素以及机构和治理失灵如何引发冲突。人们很少关注对不公正的看法是如何导致冲突和暴力升级的。因此，本文从自然资源稀缺和不公正感的角度，探讨了尼日利亚贝努埃-纳萨拉瓦边境地区农民与牧民冲突和暴力的升级。研究采用访谈和实地观察的方式收集数据。研究采用了政治生态学方法，以澄清冲突背后的物质利益，冲突源于对作物损害和牛群被杀的不满。政治生态学方法有助于分析农用工业项目对湿地的收购和私有化如何加剧了牧民和农民之间的资源竞争，从而导致牧民的牛对农作物造成更多破坏，以及农民偷牛/杀牛。然后，报告采用相对剥夺理论和社会不公正视角，探讨了在资源竞争加剧后，牧民耕牛破坏农作物和农民偷牛/杀牛的不公正管理观念是如何导致冲突升级的。研究认为，国家干预，特别是反开放放牧法，扩大了对程序性和恢复性不公正的认识，从而引发牧民的暴力反应和农民的反击。政治生态学通常将冲突归咎于国家政策使牧民边缘化，与此相反，我认为物质利益才是冲突的核心，而对不公正的看法则使冲突升级为暴力。本文认为，通过纳入政治生态学、社会正义和相对剥夺的观点，可以改进对冲突的分析，从而更好地理解资源稀缺是如何导致冲突加剧和暴力升级的。

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