World Development最新文献

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Climate change vulnerability and the resilience of energy consumption 气候变化脆弱性和能源消费的复原力

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107316

Xu Zhang , Shoufa Hu , Muhammad Abubakr Naeem , Abdul Rauf

This study examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the resilience of national energy consumption. We develop a novel measure of the resilience of energy consumption, considering both scale and temporal dimensions, and employ a panel data model to examine the impact of climate change vulnerability on this resilience. The findings indicate that, despite increasing global uncertainties, the resilience of energy consumption exhibits a rising trend in most countries. Climate change vulnerability exerts a significant negative effect on the resilience of energy consumption: a one-unit increase in climate change vulnerability results in a 0.4307-unit decrease in the absorption intensity of the resilience of energy consumption. Furthermore, through an in-depth analysis of its underlying mechanisms, we find that this impact primarily occurs through a weakening of energy supply, a reduction in energy intensity, the enhancement of governmental environmental regulations, a distortion of energy prices, and the instability of energy technologies. Our study contributes to the literature on energy supply and demand balance, specifically within the discourse on energy consumption in the face of climate change challenges. It broadens the concept of resilience to encompass energy consumption and introduces new resilience metrics, namely absorption intensity and absorption duration, thereby enhancing the comprehensiveness and comparability of resilience assessments. These findings are pivotal for improving strategic decision-making regarding energy in the context of increasing climate change challenges.

本研究考察了气候变化脆弱性对国家能源消费弹性的影响。我们开发了一种新的衡量能源消费弹性的方法，考虑了规模和时间维度，并采用面板数据模型来检验气候变化脆弱性对这种弹性的影响。研究结果表明，尽管全球不确定性增加，但大多数国家的能源消费弹性呈现上升趋势。气候变化脆弱性对能源消费弹性产生显著的负向影响，气候变化脆弱性每增加1个单位，能源消费弹性吸收强度就会降低0.4307个单位。此外，通过对其潜在机制的深入分析，我们发现这种影响主要通过能源供应的减弱、能源强度的降低、政府环境法规的加强、能源价格的扭曲和能源技术的不稳定来发生。我们的研究对能源供需平衡的文献有贡献，特别是在面对气候变化挑战的能源消耗的论述中。它将弹性的概念扩大到包括能源消耗，并引入了新的弹性指标，即吸收强度和吸收持续时间，从而提高了弹性评估的全面性和可比性。这些发现对于在日益严峻的气候变化挑战背景下改善能源战略决策至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

On social inequality, financial inclusion, and poverty at the bottom of the pyramid: Is financial equity enough? 关于社会不平等、金融包容性和金字塔底层的贫困：金融公平就足够了吗？

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107313

Charles B. Herron , Rahul Nilakantan , Deepak Iyengar , Robert Glenn Richey , Shashank Rao

Researchers worldwide are looking for ways to positively impact those afflicted by poverty at the socioeconomic bottom of the pyramid (BOP). It has been suggested that one of the critical pathways to poverty alleviation is through initiatives that encourage financial inclusion. Such inclusion is often seen as “leveling the playing field” by encouraging savings, entrepreneurship, and creating other related avenues for production and consumption. Yet, many programs targeting the BOP demonstrate limited utilization among the intended beneficiaries. In the current study, we discuss this issue with a specific focus on entrenched social stratification – the view that some communities are inherently superior or inferior based on birth. The current study examines whether social disadvantage – being on the low end of the social stratification continuum – influences the impact that financial inclusion has on access to sanitation, clean energy, and clean fuel. We ask: if one is considered “unequal” or “inferior” to start with, does this lead to subsequent challenges even after one achieves economic equity? Based on a field study, we identify limitations on how effectively financial inclusion and equity can address the challenges faced by the BOP. We conclude that existing social inequality may be at least partially disconnected from the effects of financial inclusion on poverty. Consequently, financial inclusion by itself cannot ensure poverty alleviation, as it may fail to address the deeply rooted social stratification prevalent at the BOP.

世界各地的研究人员都在寻找积极影响金字塔社会经济底层贫困人口的方法。有人建议，减贫的关键途径之一是通过鼓励普惠金融的举措。这种包容通常被视为通过鼓励储蓄、创业和创造其他相关的生产和消费渠道来“公平竞争”。然而，许多以防喷器为目标的项目在预期受益者中利用率有限。在当前的研究中，我们讨论了这个问题，特别关注根深蒂固的社会分层-一些社区基于出生而天生优越或低劣的观点。目前的研究考察了处于社会分层连续体低端的社会劣势是否会影响普惠金融对获得卫生设施、清洁能源和清洁燃料的影响。我们问：如果一个人一开始就被认为是“不平等的”或“劣等的”，那么即使一个人实现了经济平等，这是否会导致随后的挑战？根据一项实地研究，我们确定了普惠金融和公平如何有效应对国际收支平衡所面临挑战的限制。我们的结论是，现有的社会不平等可能至少部分与金融普惠对贫困的影响脱节。因此，金融包容性本身并不能确保减贫，因为它可能无法解决国际收支中普遍存在的根深蒂固的社会分层问题。

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引用次数: 0

Using spatial data to identify food accessibility in large African cities 利用空间数据确定非洲大城市的食物可及性

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107298

Jordan Blekking , Kurt Waldman , Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx , Mboyonga Kaputula

Current food security metrics are poorly suited to evaluate urban food security in Africa because they do not capture important spatial dimensions of food accessibility. The spatial dimensions of food accessibility are related to the interaction between changes in individual entitlements, or the ability to acquire food, and the availability of and accessibility to different forms of food-related infrastructure. The unavailability or periodicity of food security data, and high cost of collecting on-the-ground data, further complicates our ability to measure urban food security in rapidly growing urban areas. Leveraging and integrating spatial data on food retailer distribution, public transportation and road networks, population density, and access to electricity (nighttime lights) can provide sub-residential area scale insights into urban food accessibility and food environments − the areas where individuals acquire and consume food. We integrate a food access measure with a poverty index derived from remotely sensed data to empirically demonstrate spatial food access variability across food environments in Lusaka, Zambia. This novel spatial approach identifies areas of low food access and high poverty at a sub-residential area scale, highlighting areas that are most vulnerable to food insecurity. This method can be applied to other urban contexts to improve intervention targeting by policymakers and development practitioners. We demonstrate that highlighting the role of the spatial dimensions of food accessibility emphasizes the interaction between city planning and infrastructure, which contributes to the food environment, while also providing a means of understanding the spatial and systemic conditions that contribute to or hinder urban food security.

目前的粮食安全指标不太适合评估非洲的城市粮食安全，因为它们没有捕捉到粮食可及性的重要空间维度。粮食可及性的空间维度与个人权利或获取粮食的能力的变化与不同形式粮食相关基础设施的可得性和可及性之间的相互作用有关。粮食安全数据的不可获得性或周期性，以及收集实地数据的高成本，使我们在快速发展的城市地区衡量城市粮食安全的能力进一步复杂化。利用和整合食品零售商分销、公共交通和道路网络、人口密度和电力供应（夜间照明）等空间数据，可以在亚居民区尺度上深入了解城市食品可及性和食品环境（个人获取和消费食品的区域）。我们将粮食可及性指标与基于遥感数据的贫困指数相结合，实证地展示了赞比亚卢萨卡不同粮食环境下粮食可及性的空间变异性。这种新颖的空间方法在次居民区尺度上确定了粮食可及性低和高度贫困的地区，突出了最容易受到粮食不安全影响的地区。这种方法可以应用于其他城市环境，以改善政策制定者和发展实践者的干预目标。研究表明，强调食物可及性空间维度的作用强调了城市规划和基础设施之间的相互作用，这有助于食物环境，同时也为理解促进或阻碍城市粮食安全的空间和系统条件提供了一种手段。

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引用次数: 0

Barriers or catalysts? Traditional institutions and social mobility in rural India 屏障还是催化剂？传统制度和印度农村的社会流动性

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107302

Vegard Iversen , Anustup Kundu , Rahul Lahoti , Kunal Sen

We examine how village-level social group dominance affects the educational and occupational mobility of minority and other social groups in rural India across multiple generations. Theoretically, we distinguish between upper caste and own group dominance and examine the mechanisms underpinning inequality in mobility outcomes. We find inequality in upward educational mobility to have significantly narrowed over time. Scheduled Castes (SCs) have higher educational mobility in upper caste and own dominated villages, while Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Muslims perform worse in own dominated villages. In contrast, for occupational mobility, we find that Muslims used to be on par with upper castes but have experienced setbacks in the recent generation. There is no evidence of other minority groups catching up with upper castes while SCs and STs are particularly disadvantaged. SCs, once more, perform better in their own dominated villages. Exploring mechanisms that explain the relationships between land dominance regimes and intergenerational mobility, we find notable inequalities in the provision of a wide range of public goods with Muslim and ST dominated villages being particularly disadvantaged. We find location in unfavorable agroecological zones, village infrastructure, and social cohesion to be pathways through which upper caste and own group dominance affect the educational and occupational mobility of minority groups. Our findings suggest that traditional institutions can be both a barrier to or catalyst for social mobility, depending on the social identity of the dominant group in the village.

我们研究了村庄层面的社会群体优势如何影响印度农村几代少数民族和其他社会群体的教育和职业流动性。从理论上讲，我们区分了上层种姓和自己的群体优势，并研究了流动性结果不平等的基础机制。我们发现，随着时间的推移，向上教育流动的不平等显著缩小。在册种姓（SCs）在高种姓和自己主导的村庄有更高的教育流动性，而在册部落（st）和穆斯林在自己主导的村庄表现更差。相比之下，在职业流动性方面，我们发现穆斯林曾经与上层种姓平等，但在最近一代经历了挫折。没有证据表明其他少数群体赶上了高种姓，而南种姓和南种姓尤其处于不利地位。再一次，SCs在他们自己主导的村庄里表现得更好。在探索解释土地支配制度与代际流动之间关系的机制时，我们发现在提供广泛的公共产品方面存在显著的不平等，穆斯林和ST主导的村庄尤其处于不利地位。我们发现，不利的农业生态区、村庄基础设施和社会凝聚力是上层种姓和自身群体优势影响少数群体教育和职业流动的途径。我们的研究结果表明，传统制度既可以成为社会流动的障碍，也可以成为社会流动的催化剂，这取决于村庄中占主导地位群体的社会身份。

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引用次数: 0

Labor law and workplace injuries 劳动法和工伤

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107297

Rafael Piñeiro Rodríguez , Fernando Rosenblatt , Emiliano Tealde

This paper studies the effect of the Law of Employer Criminal Liability in Uruguay, which criminalizes workplace safety violations. Using detailed data on reported workplace injuries, we employ a Regression Discontinuity in Time design to identify the causal effect of the law. Following the adoption of the law, Uruguay experienced a significant 23 % reduction in reported workplace injuries, with the most pronounced reduction occurring in the industrial and primary sectors. We attribute these results to the law’s deterrent effect rather than to increased prosecutions, as only two employers were convicted under the new legislation. Our findings demonstrate the potential of punitive approaches to enhance workplace safety even in contexts where proactive enforcement is challenging or costly. In addition, they show that laws establishing greater employer liability can significantly reduce injuries without imposing additional administrative burdens.

本文研究了乌拉圭《雇主刑事责任法》的效果，该法将违反工作场所安全规定定为刑事犯罪。使用报告的工作场所伤害的详细数据，我们采用时间的回归不连续设计来确定法律的因果效应。在通过该法律后，乌拉圭报告的工作场所伤害减少了23%，其中工业和初级部门的减少最为明显。我们将这些结果归因于法律的威慑作用，而不是检控增加，因为根据新法例，只有两名雇主被定罪。我们的研究结果表明，即使在主动执法具有挑战性或成本高昂的情况下，惩罚性方法也有可能提高工作场所的安全。此外，他们表明，法律规定更大的雇主责任可以显著减少伤害，而不会增加额外的行政负担。

引用次数: 0

What will it mean to end poverty? 终结贫困意味着什么？

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107308

Joshua D. Merfeld , Jonathan Morduch

How we think about development hinges in large part on how we think about poverty. The world community has embraced the goal to end global extreme poverty as a cornerstone of development policy, but we show how success will hinge on how “poverty” is understood. We argue that global poverty will not be eliminated even if the global headcount of poverty is brought to zero. This is because much poverty is experienced within the year by people who are not typically designated as “poor”. Their deprivations may be substantial, but they systematically go uncounted through the process of annualizing data. We consider poverty as experienced during the year and describe the steps needed to truly achieve the goal of ending poverty.

我们如何看待发展在很大程度上取决于我们如何看待贫困。国际社会已将结束全球极端贫困的目标作为发展政策的基石，但我们展示了成功如何取决于如何理解“贫困”。我们认为，即使全球贫困人口减少到零，全球贫困也不会被消除。这是因为在这一年中，许多不被典型地认定为“穷人”的人经历了贫穷。他们被剥夺的权利可能是巨大的，但通过年度化数据的过程，他们系统地没有被计算在内。我们考虑到这一年中所经历的贫困，并描述了真正实现消除贫困目标所需的步骤。

引用次数: 0

Immigration, hukou system and crime: Evidence from China 移民、户口制度与犯罪：来自中国的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107306

Huan Liu , Taotao Shen

This paper investigates the causal effect of the hukou (household registration) system on urban crime. During the hukou reform in 2016, the central government of China removed the migration barriers for some cities and rural migrant population, allowing us to adopt a difference-in-differences method. We evaluate this natural experiment with reform information linked to crime from city-level Prosecutor’s Office. The results show that the hukou reform suppresses criminal activities, leading to a significant decrease in urban crime. Further, we provide two possible mechanisms for the negative effect: promoting equalization of public services and changing skill structure of the inflowing population. In addition, we find that increasing registered population does not adversely affect service provisions for the originally registered individuals. Overall, our analysis sheds new light on the social effects of migration control policies and public services in developing countries.

本文考察了户籍制度对城市犯罪的因果效应。在2016年的户籍改革中，中国中央政府取消了部分城市和农村流动人口的迁移障碍，允许我们采用差异中的差异方法。我们用来自市级检察官办公室的与犯罪有关的改革信息来评估这一自然实验。结果表明，户籍改革抑制了犯罪活动，导致城市犯罪显著下降。此外，我们还提出了两种可能的负面影响机制：促进公共服务均等化和改变流入人口的技能结构。此外，我们发现增加登记人口并不会对原登记个人的服务提供产生不利影响。总的来说，我们的分析揭示了发展中国家移民控制政策和公共服务的社会影响。

引用次数: 0

Has land finance driven China’s economic growth? Evidence from a quantitative counterfactual analysis 土地财政是否推动了中国的经济增长？来自定量反事实分析的证据

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107307

Yongmin Luo , Shenqi Ding , Xi Luo , Lujun Wang

The Chinese government’s reliance on land finance to mobilize resources for economic development has attracted significant attention from other developing countries. Given the critical role of rural migrant workers in China’s economic growth, we construct a quantitative dynamic multi-sector model that captures the distinctive features of China’s urban–rural dual economic structure. Our findings demonstrate that land finance in China effectively stimulated economic growth; However, it did so at the expense of reduced consumption of urban residents. Land finance drove China’s economic growth through two main channels: increasing investment in urban and rural infrastructure and promoting the employment of rural migrant workers, and the ratio of the contribution of these two channels was about 5:4. Moreover, although the new land finance policy aims to allocate more land finance revenue to rural residents, such redistribution can only promote economic growth if accompanied by appropriate policy measures.

中国政府依靠土地财政调动资源促进经济发展的做法，引起了其他发展中国家的高度关注。鉴于农民工在中国经济增长中的关键作用，我们构建了一个定量的动态多部门模型，该模型捕捉了中国城乡二元经济结构的鲜明特征。研究结果表明：中国土地财政有效地促进了经济增长；然而，这是以减少城市居民消费为代价的。土地财政对中国经济增长的拉动主要通过增加城乡基础设施投资和促进农民工就业两条渠道，两条渠道的贡献率约为5:4。此外，虽然新的土地财政政策旨在将更多的土地财政收入分配给农村居民，但这种再分配只有在适当的政策措施的配合下才能促进经济增长。

引用次数: 0

50 Years of World Development 世界发展五十年

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107305

Eduardo Araral , Serik Orazgaliyev

Since its launch in 1973, World Development (WD) has both reflected and challenged prevailing development paradigms. We provide the first longitudinal, replicable portrait of WD’s intellectual landscape and its influence on global development discourse. Leveraging correlated topic modelling (CTM) and bibliometrics, this study maps the journal’s full research archive (8,711 articles) from 1973 to 2022. We identify five major thematic waves—from basic–needs economics to climate–resilient sustainability—trace their co–evolution with the World Development Report (WDR), and spotlight how WD scholarship often anticipates WDR agendas by two to five years. Region–specific analyses reveal distinctive research trajectories for China, India, Africa and Latin America, while authorship data show a six–fold rise in women’s representation. We conclude with a research agenda for the next decade emphasizing the importance of keeping WD’s core intellectual history in development economics even as it diversifies into development studies.

《世界发展》自1973年问世以来，既反映了主流发展模式，也对其提出了挑战。我们提供了第一幅纵向的、可复制的WD知识景观及其对全球发展话语的影响的肖像。利用相关主题模型（CTM）和文献计量学，本研究绘制了该期刊从1973年到2022年的完整研究档案（8,711篇文章）。我们确定了五大主题浪潮——从基本需求经济学到气候适应型可持续性——追溯了它们与《世界发展报告》的共同演变，并重点介绍了《世界发展报告》奖学金如何往往提前两到五年预测《世界发展报告》议程。特定地区的分析揭示了中国、印度、非洲和拉丁美洲不同的研究轨迹，而作者数据显示，女性代表人数增加了6倍。最后，我们提出了一个未来十年的研究议程，强调在发展经济学中保持世行核心思想史的重要性，即使它在发展研究中多样化。

引用次数: 0

Contested forests: how transnational networks mitigate and reproduce conflict 有争议的森林：跨国网络如何缓解和再现冲突

IF 4.8 1区经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development

Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107301

Shawkat Alam , Jona Razzaque

This article examines how transnational networks, through their interactions with legal and societal structures, both mitigate and exacerbate forest conflicts, which often stem from competing interests over forest use, unclear property rights, deforestation, and state policy. Foregrounding the central thesis that strengthening legal frameworks and empowerment mechanisms can significantly enhance the conflict-resolution potential of transnational networks, the paper adopts a reframed socio-legal analytical approach that investigates the interplay between societal norms, power asymmetries, and institutional arrangements. We first examine the structural drivers and embedded nature of forest conflict, before exploring the dual role played by transnational networks in both aggravating and resolving tensions. The paper then assesses how power imbalances, environmental safeguards, and participatory mechanisms affect network efficacy. By critically examining case examples such as REDD+, FSC, and IPLC advocacy alliances, we show that while transnational networks hold promise in democratizing forest governance, their potential is contingent upon inclusive structures, balanced power dynamics, and enforceable safeguards. This article contributes to forest governance literature by offering a nuanced understanding of how legal empowerment and network-based governance intersect in conflict-prone settings.

本文考察了跨国网络如何通过与法律和社会结构的相互作用，既减轻又加剧森林冲突，这些冲突往往源于森林使用方面的利益竞争、产权不明确、森林砍伐和国家政策。加强法律框架和授权机制可以显著提高跨国网络解决冲突的潜力，这一核心论点为基础，本文采用了一种重新构建的社会-法律分析方法，研究了社会规范、权力不对称和制度安排之间的相互作用。我们首先考察了森林冲突的结构性驱动因素和内在性质，然后探讨了跨国网络在加剧和解决紧张局势方面发挥的双重作用。然后，本文评估了权力失衡、环境保护和参与机制如何影响网络效能。通过批判性地考察REDD+、FSC和IPLC倡导联盟等案例，我们表明，尽管跨国网络有望实现森林治理的民主化，但其潜力取决于包容性结构、平衡的权力动态和可执行的保障措施。本文通过对法律授权和基于网络的治理如何在容易发生冲突的环境中相互交叉的细致理解，为森林治理文献做出了贡献。

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