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Why embracing uncertainty means rethinking development 为什么拥抱不确定性意味着重新思考发展
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107256
Ian Scoones
Uncertainty – where we don’t know what the future will hold – dominates our world. Climate change, natural disasters, pandemics and financial systems are characterised by deep uncertainties, even ignorance. Yet development efforts try to control, manage, plan and order the world in ways that often backfire. In an age of uncertainty, we need to ask whether development should be a project of control, often drawing on formal expertise and creating order through top-down intervention, or one of flexible, responsive, adaptive caring This Insights essay will explore the implications of taking uncertainty seriously, examining the implications for how we approach perhaps the biggest development challenge of all: adapting to climate change.
不确定性——我们不知道未来会怎样——主宰着我们的世界。气候变化、自然灾害、流行病和金融体系的特点是高度不确定性,甚至是无知。然而,发展努力试图以往往适得其反的方式控制、管理、计划和秩序世界。在一个不确定的时代,我们需要问,发展是否应该是一个控制项目,经常利用正式的专业知识,通过自上而下的干预创造秩序,或者是一个灵活的、响应性的、适应性的关怀。本文将探讨认真对待不确定性的影响,研究我们如何应对最大的发展挑战:适应气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
How green is China’s development finance? Power generation and air pollution in Africa 中国开发性金融的绿色程度如何?非洲的发电和空气污染
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107211
Leoni Mendler-Krakau, Michael Frenkel
China has emerged as an internationally leading creditor of development finance and is now competing with traditional Western donors and lenders. Between 2000 and 2021, Chinese public sector institutions committed more than USD 1.3 trillion to low- and middle-income countries. The flagship Belt and Road Initiative, launched in 2013, has enabled unprecedented infrastructure investment in about 150 countries. Western criticism of a lack of transparency has prompted speculation about the environmental impact of Chinese lending abroad. We examine whether Chinese official finance to Africa between 2000 and 2021 is associated with “greener” electricity generation—which can serve as the backbone for a sustainable energy transition on the continent—and whether it has contributed to emission reduction. To mitigate endogeneity concerns, we employ an instrumental variable approach that relies on the exogenous variation in the availability of Chinese official finance over time. Our findings suggest that Chinese official finance has increased the adoption of renewable energy for electricity generation, although the impact differs between development-oriented and commercial finance and changes over time. Furthermore, while Chinese official finance has contributed to reducing emissions and improving electricity access, commercial projects appear to offset some of the emission reductions.
中国已成为国际领先的发展融资债权国,目前正与传统的西方捐助国和贷方展开竞争。2000年至2021年期间,中国公共部门机构向中低收入国家承诺了超过1.3万亿美元的资金。2013年发起的旗舰“一带一路”倡议,在约150个国家实现了前所未有的基础设施投资。西方对中国缺乏透明度的批评,引发了人们对中国海外贷款对环境影响的猜测。我们考察了中国在2000年至2021年间对非洲的官方融资是否与“绿色”发电有关——这可以作为非洲大陆可持续能源转型的支柱——以及它是否有助于减排。为了减轻内生性问题,我们采用了工具变量方法,该方法依赖于中国官方融资可获得性随时间的外生变化。我们的研究结果表明,中国官方融资促进了可再生能源发电的采用,尽管其影响在开发型融资和商业融资之间存在差异,并且随着时间的推移而变化。此外,尽管中国官方财政为减少排放和改善电力供应做出了贡献,但商业项目似乎抵消了部分减排。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum to “Firebreaks as indigenous knowledge system and cultural practice: an emerging counternarrative in forest fire governance” [World Dev. 198 (2026) 107224] “防火作为土著知识体系和文化实践:森林火灾治理中的新兴反叙事”的勘误表[世界发展]. 198 (2026)107224]
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-03-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107267
Diana Suhardiman , Chaya Vaddhanaphuti , Saw Sha Bwe Moo , Paul Sein Twa
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引用次数: 0
Official vigilantism 正式制度
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106978
Rebecca Hanson , Dorothy Kronick
Official vigilantism, or police officers’ extralegal punishment of perceived offenses, is often understood as the product of a repressive state. We show that official vigilantism can also arise in reaction to a state deemed insufficiently repressive. When criminal justice reform strengthens protections for suspects or defendants, police can turn to extralegal punishment as a substitute for newly disallowed tools of legal punishment. We investigate this dynamic in a case study. When Venezuela implemented criminal procedure reform in 1999, we find, some officers responded by killing those whom they could no longer arrest or detain. We then discuss the conditions under which rights-oriented reform can spark official vigilantism.
官方的治安维持主义,或警察对违法行为的法外惩罚,通常被理解为专制国家的产物。我们表明,官方的自卫行为也可能出现在对一个被认为镇压力度不够的国家的反应中。当刑事司法改革加强对嫌疑人或被告的保护时,警察可以转向法外惩罚,以替代新被禁止的法律惩罚工具。我们在一个案例研究中调查了这种动态。我们发现,当委内瑞拉在1999年实施刑事诉讼程序改革时,一些官员的反应是杀害那些他们无法再逮捕或拘留的人。然后,我们讨论了在何种条件下,以权利为导向的改革会引发官员的自卫行为。
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引用次数: 0
Does the baby that cries get milk? Direct and indirect effects of public participation on environmental governance in China 哭的婴儿有奶喝吗?公众参与对中国环境治理的直接和间接影响
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107235
Huan-yu Cui, Yue-qun Cao
We conducted a quasi-natural experiment using the gradual introduction of 12,369 hotlines across Chinese cities to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of public reporting on corporate environmental violations. Our findings can be summarized in three key points. First, public participation in environmental governance leads to a substantial reduction in pollution emissions from industrial firms, primarily targeting dirty industries rather than clean industries; furthermore, the indirect effect on clean enterprises does not offset the overall treatment effect. Second, responding to public reporting, regulators relax regulations on clean industries while tightening regulations on dirty industries. In turn, dirty industries implement measures to reduce emissions through process improvements, end-of-pipe treatments, and effective green innovations. Third, the effectiveness of public participation in environmental governance is influenced by local politicians’ professional motivations, telephone penetration, and citizens’ environmental awareness. Importantly, public participation improves residents’ health and well-being. Additionally, it has resulted in an annual GDP gain of 5.47 billion RMB and saved 15,369.1 million RMB in health care costs.
我们进行了一项准自然实验,在中国各城市逐步引入12369条举报热线,以评估公开举报企业环境违法行为的直接和间接影响。我们的发现可以总结为三个关键点。首先,公众参与环境治理导致工业企业的污染排放大幅减少,主要针对污染行业,而不是清洁行业;此外,对清洁企业的间接影响并不能抵消整体治理效果。第二,针对公众举报,监管部门放松了对清洁行业的监管,同时收紧了对污染行业的监管。反过来,高污染工业通过工艺改进、管道末端处理和有效的绿色创新来实施减少排放的措施。第三,公众参与环境治理的有效性受到地方政治家职业动机、电话普及率和公民环境意识的影响。重要的是,公众参与改善了居民的健康和福祉。每年新增GDP 54.7亿元,节约医疗费用153.691亿元。
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引用次数: 0
A fuzzy-set QCA approach exploring the role of public and private debt in shaping environmental performance 一个模糊集QCA方法探索公共和私人债务在塑造环境绩效中的作用
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107213
Maria Pereira , Graça Miranda Silva , Filipe Coelho
Our study analyses the role of both private and public debt, in conjunction with other financial and institutional factors, in shaping environmental performance (EP). Prior research on debt and EP has yielded inconclusive results and neglected the role of private debt and the interplay of various intervening factors. We address these gaps by applying Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to data from 59 countries. We find multiple pathways to achieving both high and non-high EP, highlighting the lack of a single best approach. Additionally, the results denote that high (non-high) public or private debt does not constrain a high (non-high) EP. The findings also demonstrate that no single financial means, including either type of debt or GDP alone, is necessary by itself for achieving high EP; rather, a combination of at least two financial means is necessary for such an outcome. Relatedly, the absence of all financial means is not sufficient to achieve non-high EP. Moreover, the role of debt on EP tends to depend on the other factors with which it is combined. Finally, financial means must be combined with different mixes of institutional factors for achieving a high and a non-high EP. Hence, our results reconcile previously mixed findings by indicating that the role of private and public debt on EP is contingent on other factors. This underscores the importance of considering the complex interplay between factors influencing environmental outcomes. Accordingly, this research offers insights into theory and informs policy decisions targeting both economic growth and environmental sustainability.
我们的研究分析了私人和公共债务以及其他金融和制度因素在塑造环境绩效(EP)方面的作用。以往关于债务与经济效益的研究结果不确定,忽视了私人债务的作用以及各种干预因素的相互作用。我们通过对59个国家的数据应用模糊集定性比较分析来解决这些差距。我们发现实现高和非高EP的多种途径,强调缺乏单一的最佳方法。此外,结果表明,高(非高)公共或私人债务并不限制高(非高)EP。研究结果还表明,要实现高EP,单靠单一的金融手段(包括任何类型的债务或GDP)都不是必需的;相反,要取得这样的结果,至少需要两种财政手段的结合。相对而言,缺乏一切财政手段不足以实现非高EP。此外,债务对gdp的作用往往取决于与之相结合的其他因素。最后,财政手段必须与体制因素的不同组合相结合,以实现高和非高的经济效益。因此,我们的研究结果表明,私人和公共债务对gdp的作用取决于其他因素,从而调和了之前的混合发现。这强调了考虑影响环境结果的各种因素之间复杂的相互作用的重要性。因此,这项研究提供了理论见解,并为经济增长和环境可持续性的政策决策提供了信息。
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引用次数: 0
On unfounded claims of electoral fraud 毫无根据的选举舞弊指控
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107155
Nicolás Idrobo , Dorothy Kronick , Francisco Rodríguez
An article recently published in this journal claims to present statistical evidence of fraud in Bolivia’s controversial 2019 presidential election. These claims are significant not only for our understanding of a pivotal moment in Latin American politics but also because, as the authors note, their methods might inform how researchers investigate fraud in other cases. We explain why the evidence does not support the authors’ conclusions. They claim to find evidence of fraud based on: (1) a difference-in-differences, (2) a simple difference, and (3) regression discontinuity. But (1) the pre-trends are converging in the difference-indifferences, (2) there are many benign explanations for the simple difference, and (3) the regression discontinuity uses an arbitrarily chosen cutoff at which placebo outcomes are not smooth. Our objective is both to correct the record about this specific election and, more generally, to reiterate the risks of ad hoc election forensics.
该杂志最近发表的一篇文章声称,提供了玻利维亚有争议的2019年总统选举中存在欺诈行为的统计证据。这些说法不仅对我们理解拉丁美洲政治的关键时刻很重要,而且正如作者指出的那样,他们的方法可能会告诉研究人员如何调查其他案件中的欺诈行为。我们解释了为什么证据不支持作者的结论。他们声称找到欺诈的证据是基于:(1)差异中的差异,(2)简单差异,(3)回归不连续。但是(1)前趋势在差异-冷漠中是收敛的,(2)对于简单的差异有许多良性的解释,(3)回归不连续使用了一个任意选择的截止点,在这个截止点上安慰剂的结果并不顺利。我们的目标是纠正关于这次具体选举的记录,更一般地说,重申临时选举取证的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Electoral effects of integrating forced migrants: Evidence from a Southern Country 强迫移民融入社会对选举的影响:来自南方国家的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107190
Sandra V. Rozo , Alejandra Quintana , María José Urbina
How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? We assess how a regularization program which facilitated the temporal economic integration of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian voters. This is done by comparing the election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for the program, before and after its implementation. Our findings show negligible impacts of the program on native voting behavior. We also conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voters’ response. Even after receiving information about the program, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views towards migrants. Hence, voters’ indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. Instead, theoretical and qualitative evidence suggests that it may be potentially explained by (1) the absence of negative economic effects of the program, (2) the low media and political salience of the program, (3) the cultural proximity between Colombia and Venezuela, and (4) the stabilization of Venezuelan inflows into Colombia after 2018.
缓解被迫移民的经济融合如何影响全球南方的本地投票行为?我们评估了一项促进50万委内瑞拉被迫移民暂时经济融合的正规化计划如何影响哥伦比亚选民的选举选择。这是通过比较方案实施前后参照率较高和较低的城市的选举结果来实现的。我们的发现表明,该计划对当地投票行为的影响可以忽略不计。我们还进行了一项调查实验,调查选民的反应不足。即使在收到有关该计划的信息后,哥伦比亚选民在投票意向或对移民的亲社会观点方面也没有表现出任何变化。因此,选民的冷漠并非源于对该计划缺乏认识。相反,理论和定性证据表明,这可能有以下潜在原因:(1)该计划没有负面的经济影响,(2)该计划的媒体和政治知名度较低,(3)哥伦比亚和委内瑞拉之间的文化接近性,以及(4)2018年后委内瑞拉流入哥伦比亚的资金趋于稳定。
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引用次数: 0
Against the Odds: Community forestry in the San Lucas Mountains, Colombia 克服困难:哥伦比亚圣卢卡斯山脉的社区林业
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107231
Sara Vélez Zapata , Gonzalo A. Vargas , Elizabeth Castaño , Carolina Muñoz , Yeison Londoño , María Camila Zamudio-Mir , Mariela Ríos , Alexander Palau , Sergio Valencia , Manuel Tovar , Jorge Tobón , Mauricio Uribe , Adolfo Eslava
Community forestry can reduce deforestation, protect tropical biodiverse hotspots, and support the livelihoods of rural inhabitants, but only under the right conditions, e.g., well-defined property rights, enabling regulation, supportive bureaucracies, robust community institutions, and a peaceful environment in which collective action is possible. Since forest-rich regions often lack such auspicious circumstances, in this article, we ask whether community forestry may still be effective when they are missing and, if so, under what conditions. Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis, we analysed the practices and organisational arrangements of eleven communes (veredas) on the western slopes of the San Lucas Mountains, in northern Colombia, characterised by a weak state presence and the chronic influence of non-state armed groups. Our findings suggest that communities can achieve low deforestation rates and promote forest regeneration when they meet three conditions: legitimate environmental leadership, support from external partners, and sustainable values and practices in relation to the natural environment. This article expands our knowledge of the conditions that make community forestry more effective in curbing deforestation and forest degradation. It provides actionable advice for civil society and local organisations that want to reduce deforestation and support vulnerable rural communities even when the ‘right’ policies and institutions are absent.
社区林业可以减少森林砍伐,保护热带生物多样性热点地区,并支持农村居民的生计,但只有在适当的条件下,例如,明确的产权,有利的监管,支持性的官僚机构,健全的社区机构以及可以采取集体行动的和平环境。由于森林丰富的地区往往缺乏这样的有利条件,在本文中,我们要问的是,当缺乏这些有利条件时,社区林业是否仍然有效,如果有效,在什么条件下有效。使用模糊集定性比较分析,我们分析了位于哥伦比亚北部圣卢卡斯山脉西坡的11个公社(veredas)的做法和组织安排,其特点是国家存在薄弱,非国家武装团体的长期影响。我们的研究结果表明,当满足以下三个条件时,社区可以实现低森林砍伐率并促进森林更新:合法的环境领导,外部合作伙伴的支持,以及与自然环境相关的可持续价值观和实践。本文扩展了我们对使社区林业更有效地遏制毁林和森林退化的条件的认识。它为民间社会和地方组织提供了可行的建议,这些组织希望减少森林砍伐,并在缺乏“正确”政策和制度的情况下支持脆弱的农村社区。
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引用次数: 0
Firebreaks as indigenous knowledge system and cultural practice: an emerging counternarrative in forest fire governance 作为本土知识体系和文化实践的防火屏障:森林火灾治理中的新兴反叙事
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-02-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107224
Diana Suhardiman , Saw Sha Bwe Moo , Chaya Vaddhanaphuti , Paul Sein Twa
This paper studies Karen Indigenous approaches in forest fire governance, contextualized in rotational farming practices and embedded in Karen communities’ cultural norms, values, and life philosophy. It presents the Kaw way of governing as Karen communities’ strategies to sustain their livelihoods and key element to tackle the problem of uncontrollable forest fires. Putting firebreak application as Karen communities’ Indigenous knowledge, it challenges the dominant narrative of the politics of blame, which positions burning from rotational farming, also known as swidden agriculture, as a key decisive factor causing (uncontrollable) forest fires and the transboundary haze and air pollution problem. We argue that rather than viewing burning from rotational farming practices as the source of problem, policy makers should embrace Karen communities’ Indigenous knowledge surrounding firebreak application as a central part of the solution in regional forest fire governance. It compares Karen communities’ knowledge and cultural practices surrounding the organization and application of firebreaks in the Salween Peace Park, Kawthoolei, Karen State, Myanmar, with the way farmers applied prescribed burning in Mae On District of Chiang Mai Province in Northern Thailand.
本文研究了克伦原住民在森林火灾治理中的方法,这些方法在轮作农业实践中得到了语境化,并融入了克伦社区的文化规范、价值观和生活哲学。它将法律的治理方式作为克伦社区维持生计的策略和解决无法控制的森林火灾问题的关键因素。它将防火墙的应用作为克伦社区的土著知识,挑战了指责政治的主导叙事,这种叙事将轮作农业(也称为荒漠化农业)的燃烧视为导致(无法控制的)森林火灾和跨境雾霾和空气污染问题的关键决定性因素。我们认为,政策制定者不应将轮作耕作带来的燃烧视为问题的根源,而应将克伦社区有关防火墙应用的土著知识作为区域森林火灾治理解决方案的核心部分。该报告比较了缅甸克伦邦Kawthoolei萨尔温江和平公园克伦族社区与泰国北部清迈省湄安地区农民使用规定焚烧的方式有关的知识和文化习俗。
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引用次数: 0
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World Development
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