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Has land finance driven China’s economic growth? Evidence from a quantitative counterfactual analysis 土地财政是否推动了中国的经济增长?来自定量反事实分析的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107307
Yongmin Luo , Shenqi Ding , Xi Luo , Lujun Wang
The Chinese government’s reliance on land finance to mobilize resources for economic development has attracted significant attention from other developing countries. Given the critical role of rural migrant workers in China’s economic growth, we construct a quantitative dynamic multi-sector model that captures the distinctive features of China’s urban–rural dual economic structure. Our findings demonstrate that land finance in China effectively stimulated economic growth; However, it did so at the expense of reduced consumption of urban residents. Land finance drove China’s economic growth through two main channels: increasing investment in urban and rural infrastructure and promoting the employment of rural migrant workers, and the ratio of the contribution of these two channels was about 5:4. Moreover, although the new land finance policy aims to allocate more land finance revenue to rural residents, such redistribution can only promote economic growth if accompanied by appropriate policy measures.
中国政府依靠土地财政调动资源促进经济发展的做法,引起了其他发展中国家的高度关注。鉴于农民工在中国经济增长中的关键作用,我们构建了一个定量的动态多部门模型,该模型捕捉了中国城乡二元经济结构的鲜明特征。研究结果表明:中国土地财政有效地促进了经济增长;然而,这是以减少城市居民消费为代价的。土地财政对中国经济增长的拉动主要通过增加城乡基础设施投资和促进农民工就业两条渠道,两条渠道的贡献率约为5:4。此外,虽然新的土地财政政策旨在将更多的土地财政收入分配给农村居民,但这种再分配只有在适当的政策措施的配合下才能促进经济增长。
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引用次数: 0
50 Years of World Development 世界发展五十年
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107305
Eduardo Araral , Serik Orazgaliyev
Since its launch in 1973, World Development (WD) has both reflected and challenged prevailing development paradigms. We provide the first longitudinal, replicable portrait of WD’s intellectual landscape and its influence on global development discourse. Leveraging correlated topic modelling (CTM) and bibliometrics, this study maps the journal’s full research archive (8,711 articles) from 1973 to 2022. We identify five major thematic waves—from basic–needs economics to climate–resilient sustainability—trace their co–evolution with the World Development Report (WDR), and spotlight how WD scholarship often anticipates WDR agendas by two to five years. Region–specific analyses reveal distinctive research trajectories for China, India, Africa and Latin America, while authorship data show a six–fold rise in women’s representation. We conclude with a research agenda for the next decade emphasizing the importance of keeping WD’s core intellectual history in development economics even as it diversifies into development studies.
《世界发展》自1973年问世以来,既反映了主流发展模式,也对其提出了挑战。我们提供了第一幅纵向的、可复制的WD知识景观及其对全球发展话语的影响的肖像。利用相关主题模型(CTM)和文献计量学,本研究绘制了该期刊从1973年到2022年的完整研究档案(8,711篇文章)。我们确定了五大主题浪潮——从基本需求经济学到气候适应型可持续性——追溯了它们与《世界发展报告》的共同演变,并重点介绍了《世界发展报告》奖学金如何往往提前两到五年预测《世界发展报告》议程。特定地区的分析揭示了中国、印度、非洲和拉丁美洲不同的研究轨迹,而作者数据显示,女性代表人数增加了6倍。最后,我们提出了一个未来十年的研究议程,强调在发展经济学中保持世行核心思想史的重要性,即使它在发展研究中多样化。
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引用次数: 0
Contested forests: how transnational networks mitigate and reproduce conflict 有争议的森林:跨国网络如何缓解和再现冲突
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107301
Shawkat Alam , Jona Razzaque
This article examines how transnational networks, through their interactions with legal and societal structures, both mitigate and exacerbate forest conflicts, which often stem from competing interests over forest use, unclear property rights, deforestation, and state policy. Foregrounding the central thesis that strengthening legal frameworks and empowerment mechanisms can significantly enhance the conflict-resolution potential of transnational networks, the paper adopts a reframed socio-legal analytical approach that investigates the interplay between societal norms, power asymmetries, and institutional arrangements. We first examine the structural drivers and embedded nature of forest conflict, before exploring the dual role played by transnational networks in both aggravating and resolving tensions. The paper then assesses how power imbalances, environmental safeguards, and participatory mechanisms affect network efficacy. By critically examining case examples such as REDD+, FSC, and IPLC advocacy alliances, we show that while transnational networks hold promise in democratizing forest governance, their potential is contingent upon inclusive structures, balanced power dynamics, and enforceable safeguards. This article contributes to forest governance literature by offering a nuanced understanding of how legal empowerment and network-based governance intersect in conflict-prone settings.
本文考察了跨国网络如何通过与法律和社会结构的相互作用,既减轻又加剧森林冲突,这些冲突往往源于森林使用方面的利益竞争、产权不明确、森林砍伐和国家政策。加强法律框架和授权机制可以显著提高跨国网络解决冲突的潜力,这一核心论点为基础,本文采用了一种重新构建的社会-法律分析方法,研究了社会规范、权力不对称和制度安排之间的相互作用。我们首先考察了森林冲突的结构性驱动因素和内在性质,然后探讨了跨国网络在加剧和解决紧张局势方面发挥的双重作用。然后,本文评估了权力失衡、环境保护和参与机制如何影响网络效能。通过批判性地考察REDD+、FSC和IPLC倡导联盟等案例,我们表明,尽管跨国网络有望实现森林治理的民主化,但其潜力取决于包容性结构、平衡的权力动态和可执行的保障措施。本文通过对法律授权和基于网络的治理如何在容易发生冲突的环境中相互交叉的细致理解,为森林治理文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
The defanging effect of education and autocratic survival 教育的拔尖效应和专制生存
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107294
Raouf Boucekkine , Rodolphe Desbordes , Paolo Melindi-Ghidi
The modernisation theory of regime change is often perceived to be a murky paradigm, lacking theoretical or empirical foundations. In response, we clarify the links between education and regime change. More specifically, we propose that education contributes indirectly to the collapse of autocratic regimes because educated people engage in non-violent (civil) resistance that reduces the effectiveness of the security apparatus. We empirically test the validity of this ‘defanging effect’ of education. We indeed find that the combination of high autocracy and high education levels tends to trigger non-violent campaigns, which in turn increases the likelihood of a regime change, likely to be associated with political liberalisation.
政权更迭的现代化理论通常被认为是一种模糊的范式,缺乏理论或经验基础。作为回应,我们澄清了教育与政权更迭之间的联系。更具体地说,我们认为教育间接地促成了独裁政权的崩溃,因为受过教育的人参与非暴力(公民)抵抗,从而降低了安全机构的有效性。我们通过实证检验了教育的这种“去尖效应”的有效性。我们确实发现,高度独裁和高教育水平的结合往往会引发非暴力运动,这反过来又增加了政权更迭的可能性,这可能与政治自由化有关。
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引用次数: 0
Settlements as dispossession: Forest conservation and frontiers’ violence in Mau Forest, Kenya 作为剥夺的定居点:肯尼亚茂森林的森林保护和边境暴力
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107303
Marie Müller-Koné , Kennedy Mkutu
State-run forest conservation in the postcolony often comes with various forms of violence and dispossession of local populations. In this article we investigate how conservation policies and practices relate to intercommunal conflict among forest residents. We look at the case of evictions of forest residents and intercommunal clashes in the Mau Forest area, Kenya, in the years following 2018, in conjunction with a long-durée perspective on land conflicts in the region. While political ecology literature on “green grabbing” and “slow violence” of conservation has so far hardly addressed ‘second-order’ impacts of forest evictions on group conflicts, we find political ecology fruitful as a theoretical framework to understand the links between state evictions and intercommunal conflicts. Using archival research and qualitative interviews conducted between 2018 and 2023, combined with ACLED conflict data (1997–2022), the authors show how colonial and postcolonial land policies, including attempts to conserve or rehabilitate Mau Forest, fostered dispossession, contributing to today’s violence. Past research tends to attribute intercommunal violence in Kenya to elections or resource competition, but this article explores deeper mechanisms tied to land reforms and settlement schemes that fuel identity-based conflicts. In areas like East Mau (Nakuru) and Maasai Mau (Narok), socioecological shifts—such as agricultural expansion—, coupled with population growth and unclear forest boundaries, intensified tensions. These transformations have commodified landscapes, producing new frontiers of conflict and exclusion. The results are significant for forest conservation and climate finance projects because they show how the impacts of contemporary conservation enforcement practices combine with long-durée impacts of both “brute” and “slow” violence to fuel intercommunal conflicts.
后殖民时期的国有森林保护往往伴随着各种形式的暴力和对当地居民的剥夺。在本文中,我们调查了保护政策和实践如何与森林居民之间的社区冲突有关。我们研究了2018年之后肯尼亚茂森林地区森林居民被驱逐和族群间冲突的案例,并结合该地区土地冲突的长期视角。虽然关于“绿色掠夺”和“缓慢暴力”保护的政治生态学文献迄今为止几乎没有解决森林驱逐对群体冲突的“二阶”影响,但我们发现政治生态学作为理解国家驱逐与社区间冲突之间联系的理论框架是富有成效的。作者利用2018年至2023年间进行的档案研究和定性访谈,结合ACLED冲突数据(1997年至2022年),展示了殖民和后殖民时期的土地政策,包括保护或恢复茂森林的尝试,如何助长了剥夺,导致了今天的暴力。过去的研究倾向于将肯尼亚的种族间暴力归咎于选举或资源竞争,但本文探讨了与土地改革和定居计划有关的更深层次的机制,这些机制助长了基于身份的冲突。在东茂(纳库鲁)和马赛茂(纳罗克)等地区,社会生态的变化——比如农业扩张——加上人口增长和森林边界不明确,加剧了紧张局势。这些转变使景观商品化,产生了新的冲突和排斥边界。研究结果对森林保护和气候融资项目具有重要意义,因为它们显示了当代保护执法实践的影响如何与“野蛮”和“缓慢”暴力的长期影响相结合,从而加剧了族群间的冲突。
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引用次数: 0
Resilience of what and for whom? Climate change mitigation and adaptation in the global, Ethiopian, and Tanzanian coffee sectors 韧性是什么,为了谁?全球、埃塞俄比亚和坦桑尼亚咖啡行业的气候变化减缓和适应
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107299
Janina Grabs , Gezahegn Berecha Yadessa , Marc Castellón Durán , Adugna Eneyew Bekele , Caleb Gallemore , Weyessa Garedew Terefe , Shitaye Gure Lemessa , Marta Hailemariam Mamo , Ng’winamila Donald Kasongi , Melkamu Mamuye Kebede , Daniel Andwale Mwalutolo , Ina Niehues , Christine Noe , Stefano Ponte , Guta Regasa Megerssa , Pilly Silvano , Nestory Yamungu , Kristjan Jespersen
Rapid climate change is making climate resilience a key concern in the agricultural sector. Yet, in practice, efforts to support resilience are often vague about ultimate goals, as well as which systems and perturbations need to be considered to achieve key objectives. This article presents a multi-scalar climate resilience framework that distinguishes between resilience at the sectoral, country, community, and household scale involved in coffee production. We then apply the framework by comparing the ambitions of climate resilience approaches pursued by companies and global development agencies with strategies driven by producing country institutions and coffee farming communities. We triangulate evidence from a novel dataset documenting climate-resilience interventions in the global coffee sector with original survey, interview, and focus group discussion data from fieldwork in Tanzania and Ethiopia. We find that interventions originating in importing countries primarily focus on ensuring continued coffee production in service of sectoral resilience, and rarely foreground alternative livelihood strategies that would benefit household-level resilience. Activities led by origin countries focus on productivity and quality improvements, but rarely center on climate resilience. Farmers themselves, while strongly valuing coffee as a livelihood strategy, highlight the need for diversification and pragmatic adjustments in the face of growing climate threats. We conclude that there is a need for more farmer-centric climate change interventions that strengthen not only absorptive and adaptive, but also transformative capacities.
快速的气候变化使气候适应能力成为农业部门关注的一个关键问题。然而,在实践中,支持弹性的努力往往模糊了最终目标,以及需要考虑哪些系统和扰动来实现关键目标。本文提出了一个多尺度气候适应能力框架,该框架区分了涉及咖啡生产的部门、国家、社区和家庭规模的适应能力。然后,我们通过比较公司和全球发展机构追求的气候适应能力方法的雄心与生产国机构和咖啡种植社区推动的战略来应用该框架。我们将记录全球咖啡行业气候适应性干预措施的新数据集与坦桑尼亚和埃塞俄比亚实地调查的原始调查、访谈和焦点小组讨论数据进行三角测量。我们发现,来自进口国的干预措施主要侧重于确保持续的咖啡生产,以服务于部门的复原力,而很少提出有利于家庭层面复原力的替代生计战略。原产国主导的活动侧重于提高生产力和质量,但很少关注气候适应能力。农民们在高度重视咖啡作为一种生计战略的同时,也强调了多样化和务实调整的必要性,以应对日益严重的气候威胁。我们的结论是,需要更多以农民为中心的气候变化干预措施,不仅要加强吸收和适应能力,还要加强变革能力。
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引用次数: 0
Unemployment impact of network sectors and employment protection legislation reforms: Evidence from selected african countries 网络部门对失业的影响与就业保护立法改革:来自选定非洲国家的证据
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107304
Kwamivi Mawuli Gomado , Isaac Amedanou
This paper examines the dynamic effects of Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) reforms and Network Sector reforms on unemployment in selected African countries from 1990 to 2014. Reforms refer to changes in the EPL or Network Sector institutions index. Using local projections combined with augmented inverse probability weighting (LP–AIPW) and Entropy Balancing techniques to address endogeneity concerns, our findings show that EPL reforms reduce unemployment from the first year after their implementation, while Network Sector reforms also lower unemployment, with significant effects emerging from the second year onward. Robustness checks confirm that these results are consistent across alternative specifications, different definitions of reform episodes, and alternative labor-market outcomes such as employment and labor force participation. The heterogeneity analysis shows that both types of reforms reduce unemployment among men and young workers aged 15–24, while significant effects for women are concentrated among young female workers. Finally, we identify key transmission channels through which the reforms operate, including reductions in informality, increases in domestic investment and foreign direct investment, and short-run improvements in total factor productivity.
本文考察了1990年至2014年非洲国家就业保护立法(EPL)改革和网络部门改革对失业的动态影响。改革指的是EPL或网络部门机构指数的变化。利用结合增强逆概率加权(LP-AIPW)和熵平衡技术的局部预测来解决内生性问题,我们的研究结果表明,EPL改革在实施后的第一年就降低了失业率,而网络部门改革也降低了失业率,并在第二年以后出现了显著的效果。稳健性检验证实,这些结果在不同的规范、不同的改革时期定义和不同的劳动力市场结果(如就业和劳动力参与)中是一致的。异质性分析表明,这两种改革都降低了男性和15-24岁青年工人的失业率,而对女性的显著影响集中在年轻女性工人身上。最后,我们确定了改革运作的关键传导渠道,包括减少非正规活动,增加国内投资和外国直接投资,以及全要素生产率的短期提高。
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引用次数: 0
Policies for aspirations. And opportunities 抱负政策。和机会
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107279
Noël Muller, Anna Fruttero, Óscar Calvo-González, Jacobus de Hoop
Policy interventions designed to enhance aspirations, using strategies such as exposure to role models, are increasingly implemented to help students, women, microentrepreneurs, farmers, and poor individuals access untapped opportunities. Many of these interventions were successful, but various others failed to generate meaningful changes or even worsened beneficiaries’ situation. This paper argues that policies aimed at raising aspirations cannot be designed or assessed in isolation from the opportunities individuals face. We propose a simple framework that jointly considers aspirations (people’s life goals for education, work, social status, and more) and opportunities (the resources, markets, and support that make those goals attainable). The framework highlights four scenarios — alignment, poverty traps, aspirations traps, and frustration — and clarifies how misalignment between aspirations and opportunities can lead to underinvestment and welfare losses. We then conduct a narrative review of policy interventions that target aspirations, opportunities, or both. Interventions that deliberately combine aspiration and opportunity-enhancing components, or that target one dimension in settings where the other is credibly sufficient, are more likely to generate sustained gains in outcomes. By contrast, aspiration-only or opportunity-only interventions often show mixed or null effects and can, in some cases, increase frustration. We discuss practical lessons for policy in light of these conclusions.
越来越多地实施旨在提高愿望的政策干预措施,利用诸如接触榜样等战略,帮助学生、妇女、微型企业家、农民和贫困个人获得未开发的机会。其中许多干预措施是成功的,但其他各种干预措施未能产生有意义的变化,甚至使受益者的情况恶化。本文认为,不能脱离个人面临的机会来设计或评估旨在提高愿望的政策。我们提出了一个简单的框架,它共同考虑了愿望(人们对教育、工作、社会地位等方面的生活目标)和机会(使这些目标实现的资源、市场和支持)。该框架强调了四种情景:趋同、贫困陷阱、愿望陷阱和挫折,并阐明了愿望与机会之间的不一致如何导致投资不足和福利损失。然后,我们对针对抱负、机遇或两者兼而有之的政策干预进行叙述性回顾。有意地将愿望和增加机会的组成部分结合起来的干预措施,或者在另一个方面确实足够的情况下以一个方面为目标的干预措施,更有可能产生持续的成果。相比之下,只有抱负或只有机会的干预往往表现出混合或无效的效果,在某些情况下,可能会增加挫败感。我们将根据这些结论讨论政策的实际教训。
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引用次数: 0
The dual role of small-scale fisheries on food security and poverty eradication in Vietnam: A latent profile analysis 越南小规模渔业对粮食安全和消除贫困的双重作用:潜在剖面分析
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107300
Quach Thi Khanh Ngoc , Bui Bich Xuan , Pham Khanh Nam
Small-scale fisheries are crucial for supporting the welfare of coastal communities. Nonetheless, in Vietnam prolonged overexploitation and inadequate management have led small-scale fisheries into an uncertain future, leaving fishing households vulnerable to poverty and food insecurity. This study examines the role of small-scale fisheries in Vietnam in promoting food security and alleviating poverty within fishing households. Utilizing latent profile analysis, we categorize fishing households based on dimensions of poverty and food insecurity as well as explore the potential of fisheries management measures in eradicating poverty and improving food security. Our findings reveal that, small-scale fisheries in Vietnam have significantly contributed to the well-being of fishing households, enhancing both income and food security. However, we identify two distinct groups of fishers. One group, representing 65 percent of households in our sample, is characterized by higher incomes and greater food security, is denoted in the study as “protected households”. The second group, comprising 35 percent of our sample, faces challenges in both dimensions, and is denoted as “vulnerable households”. Protected households are more likely to be located in areas where access limitations are enforced, often accompanied by livelihood enhancement opportunities. These results suggest that future policies for small-scale fisheries could benefit from developing synergies among various interventions targeting the conservation of fisheries resources, poverty alleviation, and food security.
小规模渔业对支持沿海社区的福利至关重要。然而,在越南,长期的过度开发和管理不足导致小规模渔业的未来不确定,使渔民家庭容易遭受贫困和粮食不安全。本研究考察了越南小规模渔业在促进粮食安全和减轻渔民家庭贫困方面的作用。利用潜在剖面分析,我们根据贫困和粮食不安全的维度对渔民家庭进行了分类,并探讨了渔业管理措施在消除贫困和改善粮食安全方面的潜力。我们的研究结果表明,越南的小规模渔业对渔民家庭的福祉做出了重大贡献,提高了收入和粮食安全。然而,我们确定了两组不同的渔民。在我们的样本中,有一类家庭占65%,其特点是收入较高,粮食安全程度较高,在研究中被称为“受保护家庭”。第二组,占我们样本的35%,在两个方面都面临挑战,被称为“弱势家庭”。受保护的家庭更有可能位于实施准入限制的地区,这些地区往往伴随着改善生计的机会。这些结果表明,未来的小规模渔业政策可以从以保护渔业资源、减轻贫困和粮食安全为目标的各种干预措施之间的协同作用中受益。
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引用次数: 0
Citizen science, mobile technology, and environmental justice in Africa: rights-based legal pathways for community empowerment 非洲的公民科学、移动技术和环境正义:社区赋权的基于权利的法律途径
IF 4.8 1区 经济学 Q1 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107254
Philippa Osim Inyang
This paper critically examines the legal potential of citizen science, enhanced by mobile technology, as a tool for advancing environmental justice and enforcing the right to a healthy environment in Africa. In light of widespread environmental degradation and weak regulatory capacity, it explores how citizen-generated environmental data can bridge accountability gaps in both formal governance systems and judicial processes. Drawing on African communitarian traditions, international environmental law, and comparative jurisprudence, including landmark cases from the US and Europe, it interrogates the evidentiary and procedural barriers that currently undermine the admissibility of citizen data in legal forums. The paper argues for comprehensive legal reform encompassing constitutional interpretation, legislative innovation, regulatory clarity and judicial openness to non-traditional evidence. By integrating citizen science into the legal architecture of environmental governance, African states can democratise environmental monitoring, empower marginalised communities and strengthen compliance with environmental obligations. The study contributes to emerging interdisciplinary discourse at the intersection of environmental law, human rights and digital technology in the Global South.
本文批判性地考察了公民科学在移动技术的推动下,作为促进非洲环境正义和落实健康环境权的工具所具有的法律潜力。鉴于普遍存在的环境退化和监管能力薄弱,本报告探讨了公民产生的环境数据如何能够弥合正式治理体系和司法程序中的问责差距。借鉴非洲社群主义传统、国际环境法和比较法学,包括来自美国和欧洲的具有里程碑意义的案例,它质疑了目前在法律论坛上破坏公民数据可采性的证据和程序障碍。本文主张进行全面的法律改革,包括宪法解释、立法创新、监管清晰度和对非传统证据的司法开放。通过将公民科学纳入环境治理的法律架构,非洲国家可以使环境监测民主化,赋予边缘化社区权力,并加强对环境义务的遵守。该研究为全球南方国家环境法、人权和数字技术交叉领域新兴的跨学科话语做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
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World Development
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