Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-02-09DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107330
Julian Arteaga , Michael R Carter , Andrew Hobbs
Most insurance for crop and livestock loss that has been developed in low income countries protects against shocks in traditionally male spheres of economic activity. Often overlooked are women, the particularities of their indirect exposure to these shocks, and their socially constructed responsibility to manage family well-being. To fill this lacuna, this paper studies the effect of a low-cost intervention that reformulates a male-focused livestock insurance contract so that it addresses women’s risks and is sold in units that are commensurate with women’s expenditure responsibilities. We measure the effect of this contractual reformulation using a randomized trial amongst pastoralist communities in Kenya. Twenty-nine percent of previously subsidized households that received the novel, gender-inclusive contractual formulation purchased insurance (without subsidy), compared to nineteen percent of previously subsidized households offered insurance under the standard male-exclusive formulation. Households that had not received prior insurance subsidies purchased no insurance, irrespective of the inclusivity of the insurance design. Protecting women, their assets, and those who depend on them ultimately requires a combination of smart subsidies and gender-inclusive insurance design.
{"title":"Insuring those who bear the risk: The impact of gender-inclusive framing on insurance uptake in Kenya","authors":"Julian Arteaga , Michael R Carter , Andrew Hobbs","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107330","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107330","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most insurance for crop and livestock loss that has been developed in low income countries protects against shocks in traditionally male spheres of economic activity. Often overlooked are women, the particularities of their indirect exposure to these shocks, and their socially constructed responsibility to manage family well-being. To fill this lacuna, this paper studies the effect of a low-cost intervention that reformulates a male-focused livestock insurance contract so that it addresses women’s risks and is sold in units that are commensurate with women’s expenditure responsibilities. We measure the effect of this contractual reformulation using a randomized trial amongst pastoralist communities in Kenya. Twenty-nine percent of previously subsidized households that received the novel, gender-inclusive contractual formulation purchased insurance (without subsidy), compared to nineteen percent of previously subsidized households offered insurance under the standard male-exclusive formulation. Households that had not received prior insurance subsidies purchased no insurance, irrespective of the inclusivity of the insurance design. Protecting women, their assets, and those who depend on them ultimately requires a combination of smart subsidies and gender-inclusive insurance design.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107330"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146190092","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-05-01Epub Date: 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107315
Stephan Haggard , Kyoochul Kim , Munseob Lee
Some economies are “black holes” where reliable data is scarce due to government control, low capacity, or conflict. Despite these challenges, researchers have found ways to gather useful information. This paper draws on the literature on North Korea to review six key methods: satellite imagery, reports from aid agencies, trade data, prices, refugee surveys, and official documents. These sources are imperfect, and require close attention to research design and measurement error. Nonetheless, they demonstrate that it is possible to extract information from economic black holes and to draw meaningful insights about them.
{"title":"Studying economic black holes: Lessons from North Korea","authors":"Stephan Haggard , Kyoochul Kim , Munseob Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some economies are “black holes” where reliable data is scarce due to government control, low capacity, or conflict. Despite these challenges, researchers have found ways to gather useful information. This paper draws on the literature on North Korea to review six key methods: satellite imagery, reports from aid agencies, trade data, prices, refugee surveys, and official documents. These sources are imperfect, and require close attention to research design and measurement error. Nonetheless, they demonstrate that it is possible to extract information from economic black holes and to draw meaningful insights about them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107315"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107303
Marie Müller-Koné , Kennedy Mkutu
State-run forest conservation in the postcolony often comes with various forms of violence and dispossession of local populations. In this article we investigate how conservation policies and practices relate to intercommunal conflict among forest residents. We look at the case of evictions of forest residents and intercommunal clashes in the Mau Forest area, Kenya, in the years following 2018, in conjunction with a long-durée perspective on land conflicts in the region. While political ecology literature on “green grabbing” and “slow violence” of conservation has so far hardly addressed ‘second-order’ impacts of forest evictions on group conflicts, we find political ecology fruitful as a theoretical framework to understand the links between state evictions and intercommunal conflicts. Using archival research and qualitative interviews conducted between 2018 and 2023, combined with ACLED conflict data (1997–2022), the authors show how colonial and postcolonial land policies, including attempts to conserve or rehabilitate Mau Forest, fostered dispossession, contributing to today’s violence. Past research tends to attribute intercommunal violence in Kenya to elections or resource competition, but this article explores deeper mechanisms tied to land reforms and settlement schemes that fuel identity-based conflicts. In areas like East Mau (Nakuru) and Maasai Mau (Narok), socioecological shifts—such as agricultural expansion—, coupled with population growth and unclear forest boundaries, intensified tensions. These transformations have commodified landscapes, producing new frontiers of conflict and exclusion. The results are significant for forest conservation and climate finance projects because they show how the impacts of contemporary conservation enforcement practices combine with long-durée impacts of both “brute” and “slow” violence to fuel intercommunal conflicts.
{"title":"Settlements as dispossession: Forest conservation and frontiers’ violence in Mau Forest, Kenya","authors":"Marie Müller-Koné , Kennedy Mkutu","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107303","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107303","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>State-run forest conservation in the postcolony often comes with various forms of violence and dispossession of local populations. In this article we investigate how conservation policies and practices relate to intercommunal conflict among forest residents. We look at the case of evictions of forest residents and intercommunal clashes in the Mau Forest area, Kenya, in the years following 2018, in conjunction with a <em>long-durée</em> perspective on land conflicts in the region. While political ecology literature on “green grabbing” and “slow violence” of conservation has so far hardly addressed ‘second-order’ impacts of forest evictions on group conflicts, we find political ecology fruitful as a theoretical framework to understand the links between state evictions and intercommunal conflicts. Using archival research and qualitative interviews conducted between 2018 and 2023, combined with ACLED conflict data (1997–2022), the authors show how colonial and postcolonial land policies, including attempts to conserve or rehabilitate Mau Forest, fostered dispossession, contributing to today’s violence. Past research tends to attribute intercommunal violence in Kenya to elections or resource competition, but this article explores deeper mechanisms tied to land reforms and settlement schemes that fuel identity-based conflicts. In areas like East Mau (Nakuru) and Maasai Mau (Narok), socioecological shifts—such as agricultural expansion—, coupled with population growth and unclear forest boundaries, intensified tensions. These transformations have commodified landscapes, producing new frontiers of conflict and exclusion. The results are significant for forest conservation and climate finance projects because they show how the impacts of contemporary conservation enforcement practices combine with <em>long-durée</em> impacts of both “brute” and “slow” violence to fuel intercommunal conflicts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107303"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-24DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107299
Janina Grabs , Gezahegn Berecha Yadessa , Marc Castellón Durán , Adugna Eneyew Bekele , Caleb Gallemore , Weyessa Garedew Terefe , Shitaye Gure Lemessa , Marta Hailemariam Mamo , Ng’winamila Donald Kasongi , Melkamu Mamuye Kebede , Daniel Andwale Mwalutolo , Ina Niehues , Christine Noe , Stefano Ponte , Guta Regasa Megerssa , Pilly Silvano , Nestory Yamungu , Kristjan Jespersen
Rapid climate change is making climate resilience a key concern in the agricultural sector. Yet, in practice, efforts to support resilience are often vague about ultimate goals, as well as which systems and perturbations need to be considered to achieve key objectives. This article presents a multi-scalar climate resilience framework that distinguishes between resilience at the sectoral, country, community, and household scale involved in coffee production. We then apply the framework by comparing the ambitions of climate resilience approaches pursued by companies and global development agencies with strategies driven by producing country institutions and coffee farming communities. We triangulate evidence from a novel dataset documenting climate-resilience interventions in the global coffee sector with original survey, interview, and focus group discussion data from fieldwork in Tanzania and Ethiopia. We find that interventions originating in importing countries primarily focus on ensuring continued coffee production in service of sectoral resilience, and rarely foreground alternative livelihood strategies that would benefit household-level resilience. Activities led by origin countries focus on productivity and quality improvements, but rarely center on climate resilience. Farmers themselves, while strongly valuing coffee as a livelihood strategy, highlight the need for diversification and pragmatic adjustments in the face of growing climate threats. We conclude that there is a need for more farmer-centric climate change interventions that strengthen not only absorptive and adaptive, but also transformative capacities.
{"title":"Resilience of what and for whom? Climate change mitigation and adaptation in the global, Ethiopian, and Tanzanian coffee sectors","authors":"Janina Grabs , Gezahegn Berecha Yadessa , Marc Castellón Durán , Adugna Eneyew Bekele , Caleb Gallemore , Weyessa Garedew Terefe , Shitaye Gure Lemessa , Marta Hailemariam Mamo , Ng’winamila Donald Kasongi , Melkamu Mamuye Kebede , Daniel Andwale Mwalutolo , Ina Niehues , Christine Noe , Stefano Ponte , Guta Regasa Megerssa , Pilly Silvano , Nestory Yamungu , Kristjan Jespersen","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107299","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107299","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rapid climate change is making climate resilience a key concern in the agricultural sector. Yet, in practice, efforts to support resilience are often vague about ultimate goals, as well as which systems and perturbations need to be considered to achieve key objectives. This article presents a multi-scalar climate resilience framework that distinguishes between resilience at the sectoral, country, community, and household scale involved in coffee production. We then apply the framework by comparing the ambitions of climate resilience approaches pursued by companies and global development agencies with strategies driven by producing country institutions and coffee farming communities. We triangulate evidence from a novel dataset documenting climate-resilience interventions in the global coffee sector with original survey, interview, and focus group discussion data from fieldwork in Tanzania and Ethiopia. We find that interventions originating in importing countries primarily focus on ensuring continued coffee production in service of sectoral resilience, and rarely foreground alternative livelihood strategies that would benefit household-level resilience. Activities led by origin countries focus on productivity and quality improvements, but rarely center on climate resilience. Farmers themselves, while strongly valuing coffee as a livelihood strategy, highlight the need for diversification and pragmatic adjustments in the face of growing climate threats. We conclude that there is a need for more farmer-centric climate change interventions that strengthen not only absorptive and adaptive, but also transformative capacities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107299"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-13DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107298
Jordan Blekking , Kurt Waldman , Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx , Mboyonga Kaputula
Current food security metrics are poorly suited to evaluate urban food security in Africa because they do not capture important spatial dimensions of food accessibility. The spatial dimensions of food accessibility are related to the interaction between changes in individual entitlements, or the ability to acquire food, and the availability of and accessibility to different forms of food-related infrastructure. The unavailability or periodicity of food security data, and high cost of collecting on-the-ground data, further complicates our ability to measure urban food security in rapidly growing urban areas. Leveraging and integrating spatial data on food retailer distribution, public transportation and road networks, population density, and access to electricity (nighttime lights) can provide sub-residential area scale insights into urban food accessibility and food environments − the areas where individuals acquire and consume food. We integrate a food access measure with a poverty index derived from remotely sensed data to empirically demonstrate spatial food access variability across food environments in Lusaka, Zambia. This novel spatial approach identifies areas of low food access and high poverty at a sub-residential area scale, highlighting areas that are most vulnerable to food insecurity. This method can be applied to other urban contexts to improve intervention targeting by policymakers and development practitioners. We demonstrate that highlighting the role of the spatial dimensions of food accessibility emphasizes the interaction between city planning and infrastructure, which contributes to the food environment, while also providing a means of understanding the spatial and systemic conditions that contribute to or hinder urban food security.
{"title":"Using spatial data to identify food accessibility in large African cities","authors":"Jordan Blekking , Kurt Waldman , Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx , Mboyonga Kaputula","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107298","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107298","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Current food security metrics are poorly suited to evaluate urban food security in Africa because they do not capture important spatial dimensions of food accessibility. The spatial dimensions of food accessibility are related to the interaction between changes in individual entitlements, or the ability to acquire food, and the availability of and accessibility to different forms of food-related infrastructure. The unavailability or periodicity of food security data, and high cost of collecting on-the-ground data, further complicates our ability to measure urban food security in rapidly growing urban areas. Leveraging and integrating spatial data on food retailer distribution, public transportation and road networks, population density, and access to electricity (nighttime lights) can provide sub-residential area scale insights into urban food accessibility and food environments − the areas where individuals acquire and consume food. We integrate a food access measure with a poverty index derived from remotely sensed data to empirically demonstrate spatial food access variability across food environments in Lusaka, Zambia. This novel spatial approach identifies areas of low food access and high poverty at a sub-residential area scale, highlighting areas that are most vulnerable to food insecurity. This method can be applied to other urban contexts to improve intervention targeting by policymakers and development practitioners. We demonstrate that highlighting the role of the spatial dimensions of food accessibility emphasizes the interaction between city planning and infrastructure, which contributes to the food environment, while also providing a means of understanding the spatial and systemic conditions that contribute to or hinder urban food security.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107298"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145977314","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2026-01-02DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107306
Huan Liu , Taotao Shen
This paper investigates the causal effect of the hukou (household registration) system on urban crime. During the hukou reform in 2016, the central government of China removed the migration barriers for some cities and rural migrant population, allowing us to adopt a difference-in-differences method. We evaluate this natural experiment with reform information linked to crime from city-level Prosecutor’s Office. The results show that the hukou reform suppresses criminal activities, leading to a significant decrease in urban crime. Further, we provide two possible mechanisms for the negative effect: promoting equalization of public services and changing skill structure of the inflowing population. In addition, we find that increasing registered population does not adversely affect service provisions for the originally registered individuals. Overall, our analysis sheds new light on the social effects of migration control policies and public services in developing countries.
{"title":"Immigration, hukou system and crime: Evidence from China","authors":"Huan Liu , Taotao Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107306","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107306","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates the causal effect of the <em>hukou</em> (household registration) system on urban crime. During the <em>hukou</em> reform in 2016, the central government of China removed the migration barriers for some cities and rural migrant population, allowing us to adopt a difference-in-differences method. We evaluate this natural experiment with reform information linked to crime from city-level Prosecutor’s Office. The results show that the <em>hukou</em> reform suppresses criminal activities, leading to a significant decrease in urban crime. Further, we provide two possible mechanisms for the negative effect: promoting equalization of public services and changing skill structure of the inflowing population. In addition, we find that increasing registered population does not adversely affect service provisions for the originally registered individuals. Overall, our analysis sheds new light on the social effects of migration control policies and public services in developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107306"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145883988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study examines the impact of trade agreements and their specific provisions on the sustainability of marine fisheries resources. Using global data on the Mean Trophic Level (MTL) between 1950 and 2018 and a comprehensive dataset of environmental provisions from trade agreements signed between 1947 and 2018, we estimate the impact on the MTL of signing (i) a free trade agreement and (ii) a free trade agreement including fishery-related provisions. To address potential endogeneity problems associated with fisheries-related provisions, we use a difference-in-differences (DID) propensity score matching method. Our results show that while trade agreements tend to negatively impact the MTL, including fisheries-related provisions offsets this negative impact among signatory countries. By examining the potential mechanisms underlying this result, we are able to temper the optimistic findings in the existing literature on the beneficial environmental outcomes of environmental provisions. Our findings suggest that these provisions do not foster the adoption of more effective resource management practices. Instead, they appear to reduce trade opportunities, which is contrary to the objective of trade creation in trade agreements.
{"title":"Trade agreements and sustainable fisheries","authors":"Basak Bayramoglu , Estelle Gozlan , Clément Nedoncelle , Thibaut Tarabbia","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107236","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107236","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the impact of trade agreements and their specific provisions on the sustainability of marine fisheries resources. Using global data on the Mean Trophic Level (MTL) between 1950 and 2018 and a comprehensive dataset of environmental provisions from trade agreements signed between 1947 and 2018, we estimate the impact on the MTL of signing (i) a free trade agreement and (ii) a free trade agreement including fishery-related provisions. To address potential endogeneity problems associated with fisheries-related provisions, we use a difference-in-differences (DID) propensity score matching method. Our results show that while trade agreements tend to negatively impact the MTL, including fisheries-related provisions offsets this negative impact among signatory countries. By examining the potential mechanisms underlying this result, we are able to temper the optimistic findings in the existing literature on the beneficial environmental outcomes of environmental provisions. Our findings suggest that these provisions do not foster the adoption of more effective resource management practices. Instead, they appear to reduce trade opportunities, which is contrary to the objective of trade creation in trade agreements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107236"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145738730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107282
Lulu Pan , Eddie Chi-Man Hui , Jianfu Shen
Populism has surged globally amid increasing globalization and political polarization. This study examines the divergent effects of left-wing and right-wing populist governments on infrastructure investment. Using panel data from 59 countries between 1990 and 2019, we find that left-wing populist governments significantly reduce infrastructure investment, while right-wing populist governments do not exhibit a similar impact. Mechanism analysis reveals that left-wing populist governments impair infrastructure investment by weakening legal institutions and deteriorating market governance institutions, whereas right-wing populist governments do not have such effects. Furthermore, the negative effects of left populism are particularly pronounced in three types of countries: those with multi-chamber parliamentary systems, those classified as low-income economies, and those with higher debt-to-GDP ratios. This research enriches the understanding of the economic consequences of populism and the lasting impacts of populist policies on infrastructure development, and contributes to the ongoing debate on the complex relationship between populism and economic outcomes.
{"title":"Populism and global infrastructure investment","authors":"Lulu Pan , Eddie Chi-Man Hui , Jianfu Shen","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107282","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107282","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Populism has surged globally amid increasing globalization and political polarization. This study examines the divergent effects of left-wing and right-wing populist governments on infrastructure investment. Using panel data from 59 countries between 1990 and 2019, we find that left-wing populist governments significantly reduce infrastructure investment, while right-wing populist governments do not exhibit a similar impact. Mechanism analysis reveals that left-wing populist governments impair infrastructure investment by weakening legal institutions and deteriorating market governance institutions, whereas right-wing populist governments do not have such effects. Furthermore, the negative effects of left populism are particularly pronounced in three types of countries: those with multi-chamber parliamentary systems, those classified as low-income economies, and those with higher debt-to-GDP ratios. This research enriches the understanding of the economic consequences of populism and the lasting impacts of populist policies on infrastructure development, and contributes to the ongoing debate on the complex relationship between populism and economic outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107282"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145665457","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-05DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107269
Taye T. Fisiha , John McPeak
This study evaluates the potential impact of adopting climate change adaptation practices on the welfare and child nutrition of farm households in Ethiopia. The study uses a balanced panel of household-level data from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey of rural households conducted in 2013/2014 and again in 2015/2016. For household welfare, measures of real consumption expenditure per adult equivalent and a food shortage indicator are used. For child nutrition outcomes, weights for height and body mass index are considered. The potential selection bias introduced by including adoption decisions of climate change adaptation strategies and evaluating how these strategies impact household and child outcomes is addressed by applying a panel data multinomial endogenous switching regression model. The climate change adaptation practice sets considered are categorized as soil and water conservation (SW), crop rotation (CR), and improved inputs (IM), at times alone and also in various combinations. We present findings on what household characteristics make it more or less likely that households will adopt a particular adaptation practice set strategy. The results demonstrate that in many cases, adoption of climate change adaptation practices set is positively associated with improved household welfare and child nutrition outcomes. In addition we find that larger positive impacts are observed when farmers combine multiple complementary practice sets. Our findings imply that policies should encourage smallholder farmers to adopt multiple climate change adaptation practice sets to improve the status of households’ welfare and children’s nutrition.
{"title":"Impact of climate change adaptation on welfare and child nutrition of farm households in rural Ethiopia: A panel data analysis","authors":"Taye T. Fisiha , John McPeak","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107269","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107269","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the potential impact of adopting climate change adaptation practices on the welfare and child nutrition of farm households in Ethiopia. The study uses a balanced panel of household-level data from the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey of rural households conducted in 2013/2014 and again in 2015/2016. For household welfare, measures of real consumption expenditure per adult equivalent and a food shortage indicator are used. For child nutrition outcomes, weights for height and body mass index are considered. The potential selection bias introduced by including adoption decisions of climate change adaptation strategies and evaluating how these strategies impact household and child outcomes is addressed by applying a panel data multinomial endogenous switching regression model. The climate change adaptation practice sets considered are categorized as soil and water conservation (SW), crop rotation (CR), and improved inputs (IM), at times alone and also in various combinations. We present findings on what household characteristics make it more or less likely that households will adopt a particular adaptation practice set strategy. The results demonstrate that in many cases, adoption of climate change adaptation practices set is positively associated with improved household welfare and child nutrition outcomes. In addition we find that larger positive impacts are observed when farmers combine multiple complementary practice sets. Our findings imply that policies should encourage smallholder farmers to adopt multiple climate change adaptation practice sets to improve the status of households’ welfare and children’s nutrition.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 107269"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145665456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-04-01Epub Date: 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107279
Noël Muller, Anna Fruttero, Óscar Calvo-González, Jacobus de Hoop
Policy interventions designed to enhance aspirations, using strategies such as exposure to role models, are increasingly implemented to help students, women, microentrepreneurs, farmers, and poor individuals access untapped opportunities. Many of these interventions were successful, but various others failed to generate meaningful changes or even worsened beneficiaries’ situation. This paper argues that policies aimed at raising aspirations cannot be designed or assessed in isolation from the opportunities individuals face. We propose a simple framework that jointly considers aspirations (people’s life goals for education, work, social status, and more) and opportunities (the resources, markets, and support that make those goals attainable). The framework highlights four scenarios — alignment, poverty traps, aspirations traps, and frustration — and clarifies how misalignment between aspirations and opportunities can lead to underinvestment and welfare losses. We then conduct a narrative review of policy interventions that target aspirations, opportunities, or both. Interventions that deliberately combine aspiration and opportunity-enhancing components, or that target one dimension in settings where the other is credibly sufficient, are more likely to generate sustained gains in outcomes. By contrast, aspiration-only or opportunity-only interventions often show mixed or null effects and can, in some cases, increase frustration. We discuss practical lessons for policy in light of these conclusions.
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