This paper describes the results of a policy experiment conducted in coordination with the Nigerian government. In this experiment, some communities were randomly selected to receive a new doctor. These doctors were posted to the local public health center. Prior to their arrival, health care was provided by midlevel health-care providers (MLP). To separate the effect of (ostensibly higher) quality from that of quantity, another group of communities was provided with an additional midlevel provider. A third group of communities received no additional workers. No other inputs were provided. I find a measurable decrease in mortality in communities assigned a doctor but not in communities assigned an MLP, suggesting that quality in the health-care sector is a significant constraint. (JEL I11, I12, O15, O18)
{"title":"When a Doctor Falls from the Sky: The Impact of Easing Doctor Supply Constraints on Mortality","authors":"Edward N Okeke","doi":"10.7249/wra1414-1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7249/wra1414-1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper describes the results of a policy experiment conducted in coordination with the Nigerian government. In this experiment, some communities were randomly selected to receive a new doctor. These doctors were posted to the local public health center. Prior to their arrival, health care was provided by midlevel health-care providers (MLP). To separate the effect of (ostensibly higher) quality from that of quantity, another group of communities was provided with an additional midlevel provider. A third group of communities received no additional workers. No other inputs were provided. I find a measurable decrease in mortality in communities assigned a doctor but not in communities assigned an MLP, suggesting that quality in the health-care sector is a significant constraint. (JEL I11, I12, O15, O18)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"316 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72847510","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Regressions of private-sector macroeconomic forecast revisions on monetary policy surprises often produce coefficients with signs opposite to standard macroeconomic models. The “Fed information effect” argues these puzzling results are due to monetary policy surprises revealing Fed private information. We show they are also consistent with a “Fed response to news” channel, where both the Fed and professional forecasters respond to incoming economic news. We present new evidence challenging the Fed information effect and supporting the Fed response to news channel, including: regressions that control for economic news, our own survey of professional forecasters, and financial market responses to FOMC announcements. (JEL D82, E23, E27, E43, E44, E52, E58)
{"title":"An Alternative Explanation for the “Fed Information Effect”","authors":"Michael D. Bauer, Eric T. Swanson","doi":"10.1257/aer.20201220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201220","url":null,"abstract":"Regressions of private-sector macroeconomic forecast revisions on monetary policy surprises often produce coefficients with signs opposite to standard macroeconomic models. The “Fed information effect” argues these puzzling results are due to monetary policy surprises revealing Fed private information. We show they are also consistent with a “Fed response to news” channel, where both the Fed and professional forecasters respond to incoming economic news. We present new evidence challenging the Fed information effect and supporting the Fed response to news channel, including: regressions that control for economic news, our own survey of professional forecasters, and financial market responses to FOMC announcements. (JEL D82, E23, E27, E43, E44, E52, E58)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74498042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the nonlinear pricing of goods whose usage generates revenue for the seller and of which buyers can freely dispose. The optimal price schedule is a multi-part tariff, featuring tiers within which buyers pay a marginal price of zero. We apply our model to digital goods, for which advertising, data generation, and network effects make usage valuable, but monitoring legitimate usage is infeasible. Our results rationalize common pricing schemes including free products, free trials, and unlimited subscriptions. The possibility of free disposal harms producer and consumer welfare and makes both less sensitive to changes in usage-based revenue and demand. (JEL D11, D21, D42, L86, M37)
{"title":"Nonlinear Pricing with Underutilization: A Theory of Multi-part Tariffs","authors":"Roberto Corrao, Joel P. Flynn, Karthik A. Sastry","doi":"10.1257/aer.20220199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20220199","url":null,"abstract":"We study the nonlinear pricing of goods whose usage generates revenue for the seller and of which buyers can freely dispose. The optimal price schedule is a multi-part tariff, featuring tiers within which buyers pay a marginal price of zero. We apply our model to digital goods, for which advertising, data generation, and network effects make usage valuable, but monitoring legitimate usage is infeasible. Our results rationalize common pricing schemes including free products, free trials, and unlimited subscriptions. The possibility of free disposal harms producer and consumer welfare and makes both less sensitive to changes in usage-based revenue and demand. (JEL D11, D21, D42, L86, M37)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90825283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper develops and applies a method to value water trading on a river network. The framework relies on regulatory variation in diversion caps to identify production functions for irrigated farms, then uses the estimated shadow values to assess the market’s reallocation. I apply this framework to the largest water market in human history, located in southeastern Australia. Observed water trading increased output by 4–6 percent from 2007 to 2015, equivalent to avoiding an 8–12 percent uniform decline in water resources. Reallocation and average surplus both increase substantially during drought, implying that water markets can be most valuable when climatic variability is most severe. (JEL D23, D24, Q12, Q15, Q25, Q54)
{"title":"Droughts, Deluges, and (River) Diversions: Valuing Market-Based Water Reallocation","authors":"Will Rafey","doi":"10.1257/aer.20201434","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201434","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops and applies a method to value water trading on a river network. The framework relies on regulatory variation in diversion caps to identify production functions for irrigated farms, then uses the estimated shadow values to assess the market’s reallocation. I apply this framework to the largest water market in human history, located in southeastern Australia. Observed water trading increased output by 4–6 percent from 2007 to 2015, equivalent to avoiding an 8–12 percent uniform decline in water resources. Reallocation and average surplus both increase substantially during drought, implying that water markets can be most valuable when climatic variability is most severe. (JEL D23, D24, Q12, Q15, Q25, Q54)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89098767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Moral behavior is more prevalent when individuals cannot easily distort their beliefs self-servingly. Do individuals seek to limit or enable their ability to distort beliefs? How do these choices affect behavior? Experiments with over 9,000 participants show preferences are heterogeneous—30 percent of participants prefer to limit belief distortion, while over 40 percent prefer to enable it, even if costly. A random assignment mechanism reveals that being assigned to the preferred environment is necessary for curbing or enabling self-serving behavior. Third parties can anticipate these effects, suggesting some sophistication about the cognitive constraints to belief distortion. (JEL C91, D82, D83, D91)
{"title":"Enabling or Limiting Cognitive Flexibility? Evidence of Demand for Moral Commitment","authors":"Silvia Saccardo, Marta Serra-Garcia","doi":"10.1257/aer.20201333","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201333","url":null,"abstract":"Moral behavior is more prevalent when individuals cannot easily distort their beliefs self-servingly. Do individuals seek to limit or enable their ability to distort beliefs? How do these choices affect behavior? Experiments with over 9,000 participants show preferences are heterogeneous—30 percent of participants prefer to limit belief distortion, while over 40 percent prefer to enable it, even if costly. A random assignment mechanism reveals that being assigned to the preferred environment is necessary for curbing or enabling self-serving behavior. Third parties can anticipate these effects, suggesting some sophistication about the cognitive constraints to belief distortion. (JEL C91, D82, D83, D91)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"17 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80785768","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
J. Braxton, Bledi Taska, Lightcast, Kyle Herkenhoff, Jeremy Lise, David Argente, A. Bhandari, S. Birinci, J. Boerma, Kataŕına Borovičková, Nisha Chikhale, M. Nardi, Fatih Guvenen, Loukas Karabarbounis, Rasmus Lentz, Erzo G. J. Luttmer, E. Malkov, Hannes Malmberg, Paolo Martellini, Joseph Mullins, Jonathan L. Rothbaum, Larry Schmidt, Todd Schoellman, Shannon Sledz, C. Taber, Venky Venkateswaran, A. Wozniak, David Wiczer
We examine the role of technological change in explaining the large and persistent decline in earnings following job loss. Using detailed skill requirements from the near universe of online vacancies, we estimate technological change by occupation and find that technological change accounts for 45 percent of the decline in earnings after job loss. Technological change lowers earnings after job loss by requiring workers to have new skills to perform newly created jobs in their prior occupation. When workers lack the required skills, they move to occupations where their skills are still employable but are paid a lower wage. (JEL J24, J31, J63, O33)
{"title":"Technological Change and the Consequences of Job Loss","authors":"J. Braxton, Bledi Taska, Lightcast, Kyle Herkenhoff, Jeremy Lise, David Argente, A. Bhandari, S. Birinci, J. Boerma, Kataŕına Borovičková, Nisha Chikhale, M. Nardi, Fatih Guvenen, Loukas Karabarbounis, Rasmus Lentz, Erzo G. J. Luttmer, E. Malkov, Hannes Malmberg, Paolo Martellini, Joseph Mullins, Jonathan L. Rothbaum, Larry Schmidt, Todd Schoellman, Shannon Sledz, C. Taber, Venky Venkateswaran, A. Wozniak, David Wiczer","doi":"10.1257/aer.20210182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20210182","url":null,"abstract":"We examine the role of technological change in explaining the large and persistent decline in earnings following job loss. Using detailed skill requirements from the near universe of online vacancies, we estimate technological change by occupation and find that technological change accounts for 45 percent of the decline in earnings after job loss. Technological change lowers earnings after job loss by requiring workers to have new skills to perform newly created jobs in their prior occupation. When workers lack the required skills, they move to occupations where their skills are still employable but are paid a lower wage. (JEL J24, J31, J63, O33)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87398019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Banerjee, Rema Hanna, B. Olken, Elan Satriawan, S. Sumarto
We compare how in-kind food assistance and an electronic voucher-based program affect the delivery of aid in practice. The Government of Indonesia randomized across 105 districts the transition from in-kind rice to approximately equivalent electronic vouchers redeemable for rice and eggs at a network of private agents. Targeted households received 46 percent more assistance in voucher areas. For the bottom 15 percent of households at baseline, poverty fell 20 percent. Voucher recipients received higher-quality rice, and increased consumption of eggs. The results suggest moving from a manual in-kind to electronic voucher-based program reduced poverty through increased adherence to program design. (JEL H53, I18, I32, I38, O12)
{"title":"Electronic Food Vouchers: Evidence from an At-Scale Experiment in Indonesia","authors":"A. Banerjee, Rema Hanna, B. Olken, Elan Satriawan, S. Sumarto","doi":"10.1257/aer.20210461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20210461","url":null,"abstract":"We compare how in-kind food assistance and an electronic voucher-based program affect the delivery of aid in practice. The Government of Indonesia randomized across 105 districts the transition from in-kind rice to approximately equivalent electronic vouchers redeemable for rice and eggs at a network of private agents. Targeted households received 46 percent more assistance in voucher areas. For the bottom 15 percent of households at baseline, poverty fell 20 percent. Voucher recipients received higher-quality rice, and increased consumption of eggs. The results suggest moving from a manual in-kind to electronic voucher-based program reduced poverty through increased adherence to program design. (JEL H53, I18, I32, I38, O12)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"220 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89122047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chloe N East, Sarah Miller, Marianne Page, Laura R Wherry
We examine multi-generational impacts of positive in utero health interventions using a new research design that exploits sharp increases in prenatal Medicaid eligibility that occurred in some states. Our analyses are based on U.S. Vital Statistics Natality files, which enables linkages between individuals' early life Medicaid exposure and the next generation's health at birth. We find evidence that the health benefits associated with treated generations' early life program exposure extend to later offspring. Our results suggest that the returns on early life health investments may be substantively underestimated.
{"title":"Multigenerational Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net: Early Life Exposure to Medicaid and the Next Generation's Health.","authors":"Chloe N East, Sarah Miller, Marianne Page, Laura R Wherry","doi":"10.1257/aer.20210937","DOIUrl":"10.1257/aer.20210937","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>We examine multi-generational impacts of positive in utero health interventions using a new research design that exploits sharp increases in prenatal Medicaid eligibility that occurred in some states. Our analyses are based on U.S. Vital Statistics Natality files, which enables linkages between individuals' early life Medicaid exposure and the next generation's health at birth. We find evidence that the health benefits associated with treated generations' early life program exposure extend to later offspring. Our results suggest that the returns on early life health investments may be substantively underestimated.</p>","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"113 1","pages":"98-135"},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10168672/pdf/nihms-1886991.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"9522114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I study ultimatum bargaining with imperfectly observed offers. Imperfectly observed offers must be rejected with positive probability, even when the players’ preferences are common knowledge. Noisier observations imply a greater risk of rejection. In repeated ultimatum bargaining, the responding party can obtain a positive payoff if his signal of the opponent’s offer is also observed by the opponent herself, but not if his signal is private. In alternating-offers bargaining, a player is better off when her own offers are observed more precisely and her opponent’s offers are observed less precisely. Possible applications include international relations, regulation, principal-agency, and product quality provision. (JEL C73, C78, D82)
{"title":"Unobserved-Offers Bargaining","authors":"A. Wolitzky","doi":"10.1257/aer.20211524","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20211524","url":null,"abstract":"I study ultimatum bargaining with imperfectly observed offers. Imperfectly observed offers must be rejected with positive probability, even when the players’ preferences are common knowledge. Noisier observations imply a greater risk of rejection. In repeated ultimatum bargaining, the responding party can obtain a positive payoff if his signal of the opponent’s offer is also observed by the opponent herself, but not if his signal is private. In alternating-offers bargaining, a player is better off when her own offers are observed more precisely and her opponent’s offers are observed less precisely. Possible applications include international relations, regulation, principal-agency, and product quality provision. (JEL C73, C78, D82)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79758167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically signifi-cant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas. (JEL D74, F14, F51, J15, P31, P33, Z13)
{"title":"Conflict and Intergroup Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis","authors":"V. Korovkin, Alexey Makarin","doi":"10.1257/aer.20191701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191701","url":null,"abstract":"Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine conflict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically signifi-cant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas. (JEL D74, F14, F51, J15, P31, P33, Z13)","PeriodicalId":48472,"journal":{"name":"American Economic Review","volume":"411 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.7,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74078319","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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