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Urban form and seasonal PM2.5 dynamics: Enhancing air quality prediction using interpretable machine learning and IoT sensor data 城市形态与 PM2.5 的季节性动态:利用可解释的机器学习和物联网传感器数据加强空气质量预测
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105976
Jeongwoo Lee , Caryl Anne M. Barquilla , Kitae Park , Andy Hong
This study investigates the critical issue of how urban form characteristics influence PM2.5 concentrations, a key concern for public health in densely populated cities. Traditional monitoring methods have faced data gaps and methodological limitations. To address this, we employed interpretable machine learning (ML) models with data from 1,069 Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors across Seoul, South Korea (September 2020–August 2023). Over 80 urban form variables—including density, transportation, road design, building morphology, and land use—were analyzed using Recursive Feature Elimination to identify key factors affecting PM2.5 concentrations within three buffer zones (300-m, 500-m, 1-km). The random forest model demonstrated the highest accuracy, with an R² of 95 % for autumn and 96 % for spring. Our findings show higher PM2.5 levels in colder months, driven by road width and building density in autumn and traffic and industrial activity in winter. In summer, green spaces and meteorological conditions were primary factors, while spring air quality was notably impacted by localized traffic emissions around highways and bus stops. This study offers robust predictions and actionable insights for urban planning and air quality management. Future research could integrate additional environmental variables and expand sensor coverage to further refine predictive models.
这项研究探讨了城市形态特征如何影响 PM2.5 浓度这一关键问题,PM2.5 浓度是人口稠密城市公共卫生的一个主要问题。传统的监测方法面临数据缺口和方法限制。为解决这一问题,我们利用韩国首尔(2020 年 9 月至 2023 年 8 月)1069 个物联网(IoT)传感器的数据,建立了可解释的机器学习(ML)模型。使用递归特征消除法分析了 80 多个城市形态变量,包括密度、交通、道路设计、建筑形态和土地利用,以确定影响三个缓冲区(300 米、500 米和 1 公里)内 PM2.5 浓度的关键因素。随机森林模型的准确度最高,秋季和春季的 R² 分别为 95% 和 96%。我们的研究结果表明,秋季道路宽度和建筑密度以及冬季交通和工业活动导致寒冷月份的 PM2.5 水平较高。在夏季,绿地和气象条件是主要因素,而春季空气质量则明显受到高速公路和公交车站周围局部交通排放物的影响。这项研究为城市规划和空气质量管理提供了可靠的预测和可行的见解。未来的研究可以整合更多的环境变量,扩大传感器的覆盖范围,以进一步完善预测模型。
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引用次数: 0
Expediting decarbonization in energy, waste, and water sector through digitalization in sustainable smart cities (SSC): Case-studies in Malaysia and China based on Industry 5.0 paradigm 通过可持续智慧城市(SSC)中的数字化,加速能源、废物和水行业的去碳化:基于工业 5.0 范式的马来西亚和中国案例研究
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105969
Kai Chen Goh , Tonni Agustiono Kurniawan , Nadzirah Zainordin , Ika Diyah Candra Arifah , Muhamad Azahar Abas , Md Asrul Nasid Masrom , Sulzakimin Mohamed , Roshartini Omar , Sui Lai Khoo , Hun Chuen Gui , Tien Choon Toh , Choo Wou Onn
This work explores the application of Industry 5.0 principles in smart cities development in Malaysia and China, focusing on digital transformation for sustainable urban development. The study presents case-studies from both the countries, highlighting the implementation strategies, challenges, and outcomes associated with integrating advanced technologies to enhance efficiency, climate resilience, and sustainability. This study aims to develop a data-driven methodology to address the absence of region-specific frameworks for sustainable smart cities (SSCs) and to evaluate their impacts. In Malaysia, the implementation of smart energy management systems that utilize IoT and AI has shown promise in reducing carbon footprints and maximizing resource efficiency. China's focus on smart water management using sensor networks and real-time data analytics provides insights into effective water conservation. Smart waste management systems have increased recycling rates by 20–30 %. Progress is crucial for the region's pursuit of SSCs to reach a global investment of USD 2.5 trillion by 2025. This work concludes by discussing the implications of this work in both countries to achieve sustainable urbanization through Industry 5.0 technologies. This work offers recommendations for policymakers, urban planners, and technologists to navigate the complexities of smart city development, while providing a roadmap to leverage digital transformation to achieve decarbonization goals in energy, waste and water sector by 2060.
本研究探讨了工业 5.0 原则在马来西亚和中国智慧城市发展中的应用,重点关注城市可持续发展的数字化转型。本研究介绍了这两个国家的案例研究,强调了与整合先进技术以提高效率、气候适应力和可持续性相关的实施策略、挑战和成果。本研究旨在开发一种数据驱动的方法,以解决缺乏针对特定地区的可持续智慧城市(SSCs)框架的问题,并评估其影响。在马来西亚,利用物联网和人工智能实施的智能能源管理系统在减少碳足迹和最大限度地提高资源效率方面大有可为。中国注重利用传感器网络和实时数据分析进行智能水管理,为有效节水提供了启示。智能废物管理系统使回收率提高了 20-30%。要在 2025 年实现全球 2.5 万亿美元的投资目标,该地区在追求 SSCs 方面取得进展至关重要。这项工作最后讨论了这项工作对两国通过工业 5.0 技术实现可持续城市化的影响。这项工作为政策制定者、城市规划者和技术专家提供了建议,帮助他们驾驭智能城市发展的复杂性,同时为利用数字化转型在 2060 年前实现能源、废物和水领域的去碳化目标提供了路线图。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding how digital infrastructure construction could promote sustainable development 了解数字基础设施建设如何促进可持续发展
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105977
Zihao Ma, Pingdan Zhang
Progress made in environmental protection may negatively affect regional socioeconomic development, reducing or impairing the ability of local economic systems to defend against external shocks, culminating in weakened economic resilience. Implementing carbon abatement programs without risking economic resilience is therefore an urgent problem for the international community, especially for its emerging national economies. Digital infrastructure construction (DIC), as a driving force of technological progress and structural transformation, may offer a viable solution to that problem. Here, we used county-level data for China, the biggest emerging economy in the world, to investigate whether and how Smart City Pilot policy (SCP, a policy close to DIC) has lowered regional carbon emissions and influenced economic resilience. We find that the SCP could significantly promote carbon abatement goals, and this result is robust under several tests. Further, chain-based mediating effect analysis revealed that the SCP's beneficial impact could have arisen by first promoting innovation and then productivity, and public concern acting as a stressor that pressures officials to engage in environmental governance. Furthermore, our results show the SCP is capable of bolstering regional economic resilience, and could even offset or negate the adverse effects of strict environmental regulation on that resilience. However, the positive effects of the SCP on carbon abatement in China's developed counties, or ones located in a resources-based city, were not significant. Altogether, our empirical results highlight how DIC can serve as a way to help achieve sustainable development, but more studies on its contributing role are clearly needed.
在环境保护方面取得的进展可能会对地区社会经济发展产生负面影响,降低或损害当地经济体系抵御外部冲击的能力,最终导致经济恢复能力减弱。因此,如何在不危及经济恢复能力的前提下实施碳减排计划,是国际社会,尤其是新兴国家经济体亟待解决的问题。数字基础设施建设(DIC)作为技术进步和结构转型的推动力,或许可以为这一问题提供可行的解决方案。在此,我们利用世界上最大的新兴经济体中国的县级数据,研究智慧城市试点政策(SCP,一种接近于 DIC 的政策)是否以及如何降低了地区碳排放并影响了经济韧性。我们发现,智慧城市试点政策能显著促进碳减排目标的实现,而且这一结果在多种检验中都是稳健的。此外,基于链的中介效应分析表明,SCP 的有利影响可能首先来自于促进创新,然后是生产力,而公众的关注则是一种压力源,迫使官员参与环境治理。此外,我们的研究结果表明,SCP 能够增强区域经济的韧性,甚至可以抵消或消除严格的环境监管对这种韧性的不利影响。然而,在中国的发达县或资源型城市,SCP 对碳减排的积极影响并不显著。总之,我们的实证结果凸显了 DIC 如何成为实现可持续发展的一种途径,但显然还需要对其促进作用进行更多的研究。
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引用次数: 0
A two-stage coordinated restoration scheme of hybrid AC/DC distribution grid considering cold load pickup and resilience enhancement 交直流混合配电网两阶段协调恢复方案(考虑冷负荷拾取和提高恢复能力
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105959
Hang Yu , Fu Xiao , Hanbei Zhang , Wei Liao , Yanxue Li
The ever-increasingly severe weather events have elevated the quest for resilience in distribution grids. Cold load pickup (CLPU), a common occurrence in buildings with thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs), generates a significant peak power demand when loads restart. With widespread TCLs distribution, the restoration speed and power level could be impacted by the conventional grid restoration scheme due to limited distribution generator (DG) capability and power supply paths. In this context, this paper proposes a two-stage coordinated restoration scheme based on the novel hybrid AC/DC distribution grid, encompassing the grid configuration level, information interaction level, and designed restoration flow. The typical delayed exponential model is used to characterize CLPU properties during extended outages. In the 1st stage, the contained coordinated restoration strategy decides the optimal load restoration sequence with CLPU concerned. Then, the grid loss optimization is carried out in stage 2 to generate the proper power reference for DGs and voltage source converters (VSCs) of hybrid grids. In case studies, four types of heterogeneous buildings with varied CLPU characteristics are deployed in the analyzed grid. It is verified that the proposed scheme could make effective aggregation and dispatching for multiple DGs, achieving an additional 11.3 h of total load support, a 16.5 % increase of DG utilization and an 11.7 % enhancement of the resilience index compared to the conventional restoration scheme. Furthermore, this scheme demonstrates adaptability for resilience improvement under varied temperatures and fault locations.
越来越严重的天气事件提高了对配电网恢复能力的要求。冷负荷启动(CLPU)是带有恒温控制负载(TCL)的建筑物中经常出现的情况,当负载重新启动时会产生巨大的峰值电力需求。在 TCL 分布广泛的情况下,由于配电发电机 (DG) 能力和供电路径有限,传统的电网恢复方案可能会影响恢复速度和功率水平。在此背景下,本文提出了一种基于新型交直流混合配电网的两阶段协调恢复方案,包括电网配置层面、信息交互层面和设计的恢复流程。本文采用典型的延迟指数模型来表征延长停电期间的中电联特性。在第一阶段,包含的协调恢复策略决定了与中电网有关的最佳负荷恢复顺序。然后,在第 2 阶段进行电网损耗优化,为混合电网的 DG 和电压源变流器(VSC)生成适当的功率参考。在案例研究中,在分析的电网中部署了四种具有不同 CLPU 特性的异构建筑物。结果表明,与传统的恢复方案相比,所提出的方案可以对多个风电机组进行有效的聚合和调度,实现额外 11.3 小时的总负荷支持,风电机组利用率提高了 16.5%,弹性指数提高了 11.7%。此外,该方案还展示了在不同温度和故障位置下提高恢复能力的适应性。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-scale effects of LCZ and urban green infrastructure on diurnal land surface temperature dynamics 低碳区和城市绿色基础设施对昼夜地表温度动态的多尺度影响
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105945
Yuxin Yan, Wenchen Jian, Boya Wang, Zhicheng Liu
The impact of urban green infrastructure (UGI) on land surface temperature (LST) has been widely discussed as a strategy to improve urban thermal environments. However, most studies have focused primarily on daytime conditions. Due to the limitations of polar-orbiting satellites like the Landsat series, the influence of UGI on LST over a 24-hour cycle remains unclear. To assess the relative influence and interdependence of UGI characteristics on LST across four different grid scales over the diurnal cycle, this study, conducted within Beijing's Fifth Ring Road during the summer, utilized a random forest (RF) regression model. The results indicate that: (1) UGI's impact on LST follows two distinct patterns: daytime (morning and afternoon) and non-daytime (night and dawn), which indicates the intensity of sunlight as a key driving factor; (2) tree landscape pattern indices are the most significant factors affecting LST; (3) during non-daytime periods (night and dawn), cropland's cooling effect is equally important as that of trees. These findings are valuable for prioritizing and strategically placing different types of UGI in urban planning. However, as this study focuses on a specific area, future research should include comparative studies in cities with different climatic conditions.
作为改善城市热环境的一种策略,城市绿色基础设施(UGI)对地表温度(LST)的影响已被广泛讨论。不过,大多数研究主要集中在白天的情况。由于 Landsat 系列等极轨卫星的局限性,UGI 在 24 小时周期内对 LST 的影响仍不明确。为了评估昼夜周期内四个不同网格尺度的 UGI 特征对 LST 的相对影响和相互依存关系,本研究于夏季在北京五环路内进行,采用了随机森林(RF)回归模型。结果表明(1)UGI 对 LST 的影响有两种不同的模式:日间(上午和下午)和非日间(夜间和黎明),这表明日照强度是关键的驱动因素;(2)树木景观模式指数是影响 LST 的最重要因素;(3)在非日间时段(夜间和黎明),耕地的降温效应与树木的降温效应同等重要。这些研究结果对于在城市规划中确定不同类型城市温室气体排放的优先次序和战略布局非常有价值。不过,由于本研究侧重于特定地区,未来的研究应包括不同气候条件城市的比较研究。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of agglomeration on CO2 emissions in China's transport sector: A spatial econometric analysis 集聚对中国交通运输业二氧化碳排放的影响:空间计量经济学分析
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105966
Puju Cao , Zhao Liu , Huan Zhang , Lanye Wei
The long-term processes of urbanization and industrialization have led to the agglomeration of population and industry, fostering economic development while introducing opportunities and challenges for carbon reduction in transport. This paper integrates the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology Model with the Spatial Durbin Model to assess the effects of population agglomeration and industrial agglomeration on transport carbon dioxide emissions. The empirical results show that a 1% increase in population agglomeration decreases local transport carbon dioxide emissions by 1.7065% and generates a spillover effect of 1.0542% in surrounding areas. In contrast, industrial agglomeration increases regional transport carbon dioxide emissions by an average of 0.3308% without significant spillover effects. Furthermore, economic agglomeration exhibits an N-shaped relationship with transport carbon dioxide emissions, reflecting the dual influences of the "economic effect" and the "congestion effect". Mechanism analysis reveals that both types of agglomeration can modulate the impact of infrastructure development on transport carbon dioxide emissions, suggesting that effective infrastructure planning can help alleviate the negative environmental impacts. This study provides a spatial mode for understanding the synergistic effects of population planning, industrial development, and environmental improvement, offering significant reference value for policymakers in the decision-making related to low-carbon transport development.
城市化和工业化的长期进程导致了人口和产业的聚集,在促进经济发展的同时,也为交通减碳带来了机遇和挑战。本文将人口、富裕程度和技术回归随机影响模型与空间杜宾模型相结合,评估了人口集聚和产业集聚对交通二氧化碳排放的影响。实证结果显示,人口集聚每增加 1%,当地的交通二氧化碳排放量就会减少 1.7065%,并对周边地区产生 1.0542%的溢出效应。相比之下,产业集聚平均增加 0.3308%的区域交通二氧化碳排放量,但没有显著的溢出效应。此外,经济集聚与交通二氧化碳排放呈 N 型关系,反映了 "经济效应 "和 "拥堵效应 "的双重影响。机制分析表明,这两种集聚类型都能调节基础设施发展对交通二氧化碳排放的影响,表明有效的基础设施规划有助于减轻对环境的负面影响。本研究为理解人口规划、产业发展和环境改善的协同效应提供了一种空间模式,为决策者在低碳交通发展相关决策中提供了重要的参考价值。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable urban digital innovation: A socio-technical competency-based approach to evaluation 可持续的城市数字创新:基于社会技术能力的评估方法
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105946
Ahmad Helmi , Viviana Bastidas , Kwadwo Oti-Sarpong , Jennifer Schooling
This study explores the leadership competencies required in practice by city planners and managers in smart city projects focusing on environmental urban sustainability. Although the literature notes that urban technologies and their capabilities can help address sustainability challenges in cities, there is a lack of studies exploring the competency requirements necessary to foster leadership capacity. This paper identifies leadership competencies within four real-world case studies in the urban built environment, guided by a socio-technical competency framework (DC2-CF). The selected case studies represent a diverse set of city planning purposes, geographic regions, various levels of spatial scale, and socio-technical elements of digital innovation. In these case studies, city managers exhibit specific competencies to develop digital innovation projects that uphold and advance urban sustainability. The study demonstrates the relevance and practical application of DC2-CF as a valuable tool to identify competency needs for local public, private, and community stakeholders throughout diverse stages of the urban digital innovation process. The findings suggest the complex relationship between competencies and project delivery, stressing variations in how they are utilised across various projects. Drawing from these key results, this paper provides practical recommendations for city professionals, guiding them in leading climate-friendly and sustainable urban digital innovation.
本研究探讨了以城市环境可持续性为重点的智慧城市项目中,城市规划者和管理者在实践中需要具备的领导能力。尽管文献指出城市技术及其能力有助于应对城市的可持续发展挑战,但缺乏对培养领导能力所需的能力要求进行探讨的研究。本文以社会技术能力框架(DC2-CF)为指导,在城市建筑环境的四个实际案例研究中确定了领导能力。所选案例研究代表了不同的城市规划目的、地理区域、不同层次的空间尺度以及数字创新的社会技术要素。在这些案例研究中,城市管理者展示了开发数字创新项目的特定能力,以维护和推进城市的可持续发展。这项研究表明,DC2-CF 作为一种有价值的工具,可以在城市数字创新过程的各个阶段确定当地公共、私人和社区利益相关者的能力需求,具有现实意义和实际应用价值。研究结果表明了能力与项目交付之间的复杂关系,并强调了不同项目在利用能力方面的差异。根据这些关键结果,本文为城市专业人员提供了实用建议,指导他们引领气候友好型和可持续城市数字化创新。
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引用次数: 0
Waste collection route optimisation for the second waste-to-energy plant in Budapest 优化布达佩斯第二座垃圾发电厂的垃圾收集路线
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105953
Kende Kocsis , József Kövendi , Balázs Bokor
The city of Budapest produces approximately 680–700 000 tonnes of municipal solid waste every year, of which <2/3 is being recycled or used for energetic purposes, the rest ends up in a landfill. To combat this environmental and logistical problem the installation of a second waste incineration plant has been proposed in the south of the city. The only cost associated with fuel consumption in the case of waste to energy powerplants (WtE plants) is the transport cost, as the city council provides economic support for waste disposal. Since the transportation has a huge influence on the cost of opertation, logistical optimisation of the transport routes promises a direct impact on cost savings. In this study the logistical optimisation of the Southern Budapest area was carried out using image processing and logic based algorithm programming. As a result the optimal transport of 230 000 tonnes of municipal solid waste (MSW) was solved resulting in a 4 835.2 km monthly travel distance reduction.This value can be translated to 7 823 €/month cost, 9 459.6 kg/month CO2 and 45.3 kg/month NOx emissions reduction in the urban areas.
布达佩斯市每年产生约 680-700 000 吨城市固体废物,其中 2/3 被回收或用于能源目的,其余的最终被填埋。为了解决这一环境和物流问题,有人建议在城市南部安装第二座垃圾焚烧厂。在垃圾焚烧发电厂(WtE 工厂)中,与燃料消耗相关的唯一成本是运输成本,因为市议会为垃圾处理提供经济支持。由于运输对运营成本有很大影响,因此运输路线的物流优化对节约成本有直接影响。在这项研究中,布达佩斯南部地区的物流优化采用了图像处理和逻辑算法编程。结果,解决了 23 万吨城市固体废物 (MSW) 的最佳运输问题,每月减少了 4 835.2 千米的运输距离,这一数值可转化为 7 823 欧元/月的成本、9 459.6 千克/月的二氧化碳排放量和 45.3 千克/月的城市氮氧化物排放量。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing demographic and socioeconomic susceptibilities to heatwaves in the Southeastern United Kingdom 评估英国东南部人口和社会经济对热浪的易感性
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105958
Jeetendra Sahani , Prashant Kumar , Sisay E. Debele
As climate change intensifies, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are rising to pose significant health risks. Population vulnerability, influenced by socioeconomic and demographic factors, is a widespread concern. We analysed heat vulnerability by demonstrating usefulness of principal component analysis on recent, localised census data at lower super output scale for vulnerability factors such as poverty, access to cooling facilities, age, and gender for a non-city yet highly heat risk vulnerable case study of Surrey, UK. Four major factors (poverty, elderly population, unemployed students, daily commute) were identified, creating a cumulative Heat Vulnerability Index, aiding in prioritising interventions and mapping vulnerable areas. Mapping revealed most areas had a moderate vulnerability level of 3 out of 6 for individual major factors, with cumulative scores ranging from 11 to 12 out of 20. The study emphasises the interconnectedness of vulnerability factors and highlights the applicability of the approach beyond Surrey. The demonstrated methodology provides a valuable template for vulnerability assessments in regions facing similar challenges and have its up-to-date effective heat action plan underlining the importance of tailored strategies for comprehensive heat risk management (e.g. cooling centres, transport aid, multilingual risk communication and home visits). Policymakers can utilise the insights gained to develop targeted measures for vulnerable populations and manage heat-related issues effectively on a global scale.
随着气候变化的加剧,热浪的频率和强度都在上升,对健康构成了重大威胁。受社会经济和人口因素影响的人口脆弱性受到广泛关注。我们对英国萨里郡一个非城市但却极易受热浪影响的案例研究进行了分析,结果表明,在较低的超级产出尺度下,对最近的本地化人口普查数据进行主成分分析,对贫困、获得冷却设施的机会、年龄和性别等脆弱性因素进行分析是非常有用的。确定了四个主要因素(贫困、老年人口、失业学生、日常通勤),形成了一个累积的高温脆弱性指数,有助于确定干预措施的优先次序和绘制脆弱地区地图。绘图结果显示,大多数地区在单个主要因素方面的脆弱程度为中度(6 分中的 3 分),累积分数为 11 到 12 分(20 分中的 12 分)。这项研究强调了脆弱因素之间的相互关联性,并突出了该方法在萨里以外地区的适用性。所展示的方法为面临类似挑战的地区提供了宝贵的脆弱性评估模板,其最新的有效高温行动计划强调了量身定制的全面高温风险管理战略(如冷却中心、交通援助、多语言风险沟通和家访)的重要性。政策制定者可以利用所获得的见解,为弱势群体制定有针对性的措施,并在全球范围内有效管理与高温有关的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-factor dynamic correlation prediction and analysis of carbon peaking for building sector: A case study of Shaanxi province 建筑行业碳峰值的多因素动态关联预测与分析:陕西省案例研究
IF 10.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING TECHNOLOGY Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2024.105960
Xue Zhang, Zengfeng Yan, Pingan Ni, Xia Yan, Fuming Lei, Yingjun Yue
The factors influencing carbon emissions in the construction sector are numerous, and the relationships between these factors are complex. Previous studies on carbon peaking have often overlooked the dynamic changes between influencing factors and limited the number of variables to simplify the computation of predictive models. Based on the goal of carbon peaking, this study explores the relationships between internal factors within the construction industry and establishes a network of factor correlation. Furthermore, this network is embedded into an improved STIRPAT model, and a multi-factor dynamic correlation prediction model is constructed by incorporating scenario analysis. Taking Shaanxi Province, China, as a case for empirical analysis, the study explores carbon-peaking solutions for the building sector under different development scenarios. The findings indicate that carbon emissions in Shaanxi's building sector continuously increased during the study period, reaching 213 MtCO2 in 2020. Through factor screening, 12 driving factors were found to be significantly related to carbon emissions, all showing positive correlations, with the urbanization rate contributing the most to emissions. The dynamic association prediction model constructed had an accuracy of 0.996. Using this model, nine carbon emission scenarios were predicted, with optimizing the energy structure identified as the critical pathway, achieving a 5.01% reduction in emissions. A comprehensive strategy could achieve a 12.49% reduction and meet the carbon peaking target. Finally, the study proposes policy recommendations for the coordinated management of emissions reductions in cities and the construction industry, contributing to the development of sustainable cities and societies.
影响建筑行业碳排放的因素很多,这些因素之间的关系也很复杂。以往关于碳峰值的研究往往忽视影响因素之间的动态变化,并限制变量数量以简化预测模型的计算。基于碳峰值的目标,本研究探讨了建筑行业内部因素之间的关系,并建立了一个因素相关网络。此外,还将该网络嵌入到改进的 STIRPAT 模型中,并结合情景分析构建了多因素动态关联预测模型。研究以中国陕西省为例进行实证分析,探讨了不同发展情景下建筑行业的碳排放解决方案。研究结果表明,陕西省建筑行业的碳排放量在研究期间持续增长,2020 年将达到 2.13 亿吨 CO2。通过因子筛选,发现 12 个驱动因子与碳排放显著相关,且均呈现正相关,其中城市化率对碳排放的贡献最大。所构建的动态关联预测模型的准确度为 0.996。利用该模型预测了九种碳排放情景,其中优化能源结构被认为是关键途径,可实现 5.01% 的减排。综合战略可实现 12.49% 的减排量,并达到碳峰值目标。最后,研究提出了城市和建筑行业减排协调管理的政策建议,有助于可持续城市和社会的发展。
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Sustainable Cities and Society
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