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Social Cohesion and Community Displacement in Armed Conflict 武装冲突中的社会凝聚力和社区流离失所
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00452
D. Arnon, Richard J. McAlexander, Michael A. Rubin
Abstract What are the origins of conflict-related population displacement? Why do some communities in conflict zones suffer mass casualties while others evade conflict violence? Whether civilians migrate before or after belligerent operations in their vicinity influences the scale of casualties and population displacement in war. “Preemptive evacuation” is a specific manifestation of forced displacement, in which whole communities leave their homes before belligerents attempt to seize control in their local area. In conflicts involving strategic civilian-targeted violence, social cohesion, by promoting collective action, enhances communities’ capabilities to mobilize collective migration, thereby increasing the likelihood of preemptive evacuation. An investigation of the 1948 Arab-Israeli War probes the plausibility of the theory. Detailed information about Arab Palestinian villages in the previously restricted Village Files is used to construct a village-level dataset, which measures social cohesion and other social, political, and economic characteristics. These documents and data provide crucial sources of evidence to researchers investigating Palestinian society and development, the origins of Israel's statehood, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Findings suggest that areas where communities lack social cohesion may suffer higher casualties from targeted violence, signaling a need for urgent diplomatic and humanitarian prevention or mitigation efforts.
与冲突有关的人口流离失所的根源是什么?为什么冲突地区的一些社区遭受大规模伤亡,而另一些社区却逃避冲突暴力?平民是否在其附近的交战行动之前或之后迁移影响战争中伤亡和人口流离失所的规模。“先发制人的撤离”是强迫流离失所的一种具体表现,即整个社区在交战方试图控制其所在地区之前离开家园。在涉及针对平民的战略性暴力冲突中,社会凝聚力通过促进集体行动,增强了社区动员集体移徙的能力,从而增加了先发制人撤离的可能性。对1948年阿以战争的调查探究了这一理论的合理性。以前受限制的村庄文件中有关阿拉伯巴勒斯坦村庄的详细信息被用于构建村庄级别的数据集,该数据集衡量社会凝聚力和其他社会、政治和经济特征。这些文件和数据为研究巴勒斯坦社会和发展、以色列建国的起源以及巴以冲突的研究人员提供了重要的证据来源。调查结果表明,社区缺乏社会凝聚力的地区可能因有针对性的暴力而遭受更高的伤亡,这表明需要紧急开展外交和人道主义预防或缓解努力。
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引用次数: 0
The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China's Changing Nuclear Posture 纠缠的安全困境的动态:中国不断变化的核态势
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00457
Henrik Stålhane Hiim, M. T. Fravel, Magnus Langset Trøan
Abstract Amid an intensifying rivalry with the United States, China is modernizing and significantly expanding its nuclear forces. These developments fuel concerns that China's traditional nuclear strategy premised on a limited nuclear arsenal for assured retaliation and a no-first-use policy is undergoing a major shift. Using Chinese-language materials, an examination of Chinese debates about China's security environment and the future direction of its nuclear strategy finds that a nuclear-conventional entangled security dilemma is emerging between the United States and China. The shift in the conventional balance of force in the region and the U.S. development of lower-yield nuclear weapons has led to greater fears in China of U.S. limited nuclear use in a conflict. Chinese strategists increasingly believe that U.S. nonnuclear strategic capabilities threaten China's nuclear forces. Although there is limited evidence of a shift in its nuclear strategy, China is changing its strategic posture to ensure its second-strike capability, including by relying on advanced conventional weapons (e.g., counterspace capabilities, cyber weapons, and electronic warfare) that can target U.S. missile defense. The dynamics of an entangled security dilemma may weaken arms race stability, and they underscore why it will be challenging for the United States to engage China in nuclear arms control.
在与美国日益激烈的竞争中,中国正在实现核力量现代化,并大幅扩大其核力量。这些事态发展加剧了人们的担忧,即中国传统的核战略以有限的核武库为前提,以确保报复和不首先使用核武器的政策正在发生重大转变。使用中文材料,对中国关于中国安全环境及其核战略未来方向的辩论进行考察,发现中美之间正在出现一个核常规纠缠的安全困境。该地区常规力量平衡的转变以及美国发展低当量核武器,导致中国对美国在冲突中有限使用核武器的担忧加剧。中国战略家越来越相信,美国的非核战略能力威胁到了中国的核力量。尽管有有限的证据表明其核战略发生了转变,但中国正在改变其战略态势,以确保其第二次打击能力,包括依靠先进的常规武器(例如,反太空能力、网络武器和电子战)来瞄准美国的导弹防御系统。相互纠缠的安全困境的动态可能会削弱军备竞赛的稳定性,并且它们强调了为什么美国在核军备控制方面与中国接触将是一项挑战。
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引用次数: 1
The Path to Atonement: West Germany and Israel after the Holocaust 《赎罪之路:大屠杀后的西德和以色列
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00460
Kathrin Bachleitner
Abstract Atonement is a state practice that comprises an official political apology and the offer of reparation payments to former victims of mass atrocities, war crimes, and human rights abuses. Despite being considered the moral and right thing to do, atonement has occurred only once at the state level: between West Germany and Israel in 1952. Whereas existing explanations view the West German pathway after the Holocaust as either an ethical choice or a domestic policy induced by U.S. pressure, atonement can also be a political decision. Politicians may give official apologies and pay reparations because such practices promise tangible political benefits. An investigation of the West German–Israeli case and a comparison with two non-atoning perpetrators of World War II, Austria and Japan, illustrate the plausibility of these claims. Atonement emerged as a bilateral strategy between West Germany and Israel because it represented a politically expedient option for both countries. This finding offers insights into when politicians may pursue atonement in other cases and points to a potential avenue toward long-term international stability and durable peace.
赎罪是一种国家行为,包括官方的政治道歉和向大规模暴行、战争罪和侵犯人权行为的前受害者提供赔偿。尽管被认为是道德和正确的事情,但在国家层面上的赎罪只发生过一次:1952年西德和以色列之间。尽管现有的解释将大屠杀后的西德道路视为一种道德选择或在美国压力下诱导的国内政策,但赎罪也可以是一种政治决定。政客们可能会做出官方道歉并支付赔偿金,因为这种做法有望带来切实的政治利益。对西德-以色列案件的调查以及与两个不愿赎罪的二战肇事者奥地利和日本的比较,说明了这些说法的合理性。赎罪之所以成为西德和以色列之间的双边战略,是因为这对两国都是一种政治上的权宜之计。这一发现为政治家在其他情况下寻求赎罪提供了见解,并指出了实现长期国际稳定和持久和平的潜在途径。
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引用次数: 0
To Punish or Protect? Local Leaders and Economic Coercion in China 惩罚还是保护?中国的地方领导人与经济胁迫
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00472
Kacie Miura
Abstract During foreign policy disputes involving China and some of its most important economic partners, why do local leaders punish or protect foreign commercial actors? Understanding this variation is important because how local leaders treat foreign businesses can influence the overall effectiveness of the Chinese government's use of economic coercion against foreign states. Two variables help determine whether local leaders participate in economic retaliation: (1) whether they regard commercial ties to the targeted state as essential to achieving the economic growth necessary for career advancement; and (2) whether they are politically vulnerable, either because they lack powerful patrons or because their locality recently experienced social unrest. Economic importance creates incentives to protect foreign commercial interests, and political vulnerability provides incentives for local leaders to demonstrate their patriotic credentials through economic retaliation. Drawing on interviews with Chinese, Korean, and Japanese sources, an examination of local leader behavior in Chinese cities illuminates why they responded differently during foreign policy disputes with Japan in 2012 and South Korea in 2017.
在涉及中国及其一些最重要的经济伙伴的外交政策纠纷中,为什么地方领导人会惩罚或保护外国商业参与者?了解这种差异很重要,因为地方领导人对待外国企业的方式会影响中国政府对外国使用经济胁迫的整体有效性。两个变量有助于决定地方领导人是否参与经济报复:(1)他们是否认为与目标国家的商业关系对于实现职业发展所必需的经济增长至关重要;(2)他们在政治上是否脆弱,要么是因为他们缺乏强大的赞助人,要么是因为他们所在的地方最近经历了社会动荡。经济上的重要性促使人们保护外国商业利益,而政治上的脆弱性则促使地方领导人通过经济报复来展示他们的爱国情怀。通过对中国、韩国和日本消息人士的采访,对中国城市地方领导人行为的调查揭示了为什么他们在2012年与日本和2017年与韩国的外交政策争端中做出了不同的反应。
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引用次数: 0
The Meddler's Trap: McKinley, the Philippines, and the Difficulty of Letting Go 《多管闲事的陷阱:麦金利、菲律宾和放手的困难
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00471
Aroop Mukharji
Abstract From Vietnam to Afghanistan, U.S. leaders have had great difficulty disentangling the United States from faraway military interventions. William McKinley's 1898 decision to annex the Philippines reveals why, through a phenomenon called the “meddler's trap.” The meddler's trap denotes a situation of self-entanglement, whereby a leader inadvertently creates a problem through military intervention, feels they can solve it, and values solving the new problem more because of the initial intervention. The inflated valuation is driven by a cognitive bias called the endowment effect, according to which individuals tend to overvalue goods they feel they own. A military intervention causes a feeling of ownership of the foreign territory, triggering the endowment effect. Following the U.S. victory in Manila during the War of 1898, McKinley doubted Filipino civilizational capacity to self-govern, believed that a U.S. departure from the Philippines would cause chaos and great power war, and believed that U.S. governance could forestall that outcome. Because he had already deployed troops to the Philippines, McKinley also felt ownership over them, and this endowment effect inflated his valuation of the archipelago. Together, these mutually reinforcing beliefs produced the meddler's trap and the United States’ largest annexation outside its hemisphere.
从越南到阿富汗,美国领导人很难将美国从遥远的军事干预中解脱出来。威廉·麦金利(William McKinley) 1898年吞并菲律宾的决定通过一种被称为“干涉者陷阱”的现象揭示了其中的原因。干涉者陷阱指的是一种自我纠缠的情况,即领导者通过军事干预无意中制造了一个问题,觉得他们可以解决这个问题,并且因为最初的干预而更重视解决新问题。虚高的估价是由一种被称为禀赋效应的认知偏见所驱动的,根据这种偏见,个人倾向于高估他们认为自己拥有的商品。军事干预会引起对外国领土的所有权感,从而引发禀赋效应。1898年战争期间,美国在马尼拉取得胜利后,麦金利怀疑菲律宾文明的自治能力,认为美国离开菲律宾会导致混乱和大国战争,并认为美国的治理可以防止这种结果。因为他已经在菲律宾部署了军队,麦金利也觉得自己是他们的主人,这种禀赋效应夸大了他对这个群岛的估价。总之,这些相互强化的信念产生了“干涉者陷阱”和美国在其半球之外最大的吞并。
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引用次数: 0
Correspondence: Debating China's Use of Overseas Ports 通信:辩论中国对海外港口的使用
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_c_00455
David C. Logan, R. Watts, Isaac B. Kardon, Wendy Leutert
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引用次数: 0
Words Matter: The Effect of Moral Language on International Bargaining 言语至关重要:道德语言对国际议价的影响
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00466
Abigail S. Post
Abstract How does moral language affect international bargaining? When countries rely on moral language to frame a disputed issue, they decrease the probability of peaceful compromise and increase the probability of the dispute escalating with military action. This language operates through two pathways. First, moral language prejudices domestic audiences against compromise over the disputed issue, thereby limiting the options available to negotiators during bargaining. Second, moral language prompts the dispute opponent to also utilize moral arguments to defend its position. The ensuing moral debate moralizes both sets of domestic audiences, consequently reducing opportunities for compromise and narrowing the bargaining range. Negotiated concessions then frustrate the bargaining opponent and elicit accusations of hypocrisy from domestic audiences for compromising on the principle at stake. This backlash triggers crises and pressures the government to stand firm on its previously principled (and uncompromising) position, increasing the probability of military escalation. An examination of the effects of moral language on negotiation breakdown and dispute escalation in the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas case probes the theory. The findings illustrate how moral language can shape a government's behavior far into the future, constraining its ability to broker a peaceful compromise.
道德语言如何影响国际议价?当各国依靠道德语言来框定一个有争议的问题时,它们降低了和平妥协的可能性,增加了争端升级为军事行动的可能性。这种语言通过两种途径运作。首先,道德语言会使国内听众产生偏见,反对在有争议的问题上妥协,从而限制谈判者在讨价还价时的选择。其次,道德语言促使争论的对手也利用道德论据来捍卫自己的立场。随之而来的道德辩论使两派国内观众都道德化,从而减少了妥协的机会,缩小了讨价还价的范围。谈判后的让步会让讨价还价的对手感到沮丧,并招致国内民众指责他们在利害攸关的原则上妥协,说他们虚伪。这种反弹引发了危机,迫使政府坚持其先前的原则(和不妥协)立场,增加了军事升级的可能性。在福克兰群岛/马尔维纳斯群岛案例中,道德语言对谈判破裂和争端升级的影响探讨了这一理论。这些发现表明,道德语言可以在很长一段时间内塑造政府的行为,限制其促成和平妥协的能力。
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引用次数: 0
Dangerous Changes: When Military Innovation Harms Combat Effectiveness 危险的变化:当军事创新损害战斗力
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00446
Kendrick Kuo
Abstract Prevailing wisdom suggests that innovation dramatically enhances the effectiveness of a state's armed forces. But self-defeating innovation is more likely to occur when a military service's growing security commitments outstrip shrinking resources. This wide commitment-resource gap pressures the service to make desperate gambles on new capabilities to meet overly ambitious goals while cannibalizing traditional capabilities before beliefs about the effectiveness of new ones are justified. Doing so increases the chances that when wartime comes, the service will discover that the new capability cannot alone accomplish assigned missions, and that neglecting traditional capabilities produces vulnerabilities that the enemy can exploit. To probe this argument's causal logic, a case study examines British armor innovation in the interwar period and its impact on the British Army's poor performance in the North African campaign during World War II. The findings suggest that placing big bets on new capabilities comes with significant risks because what is lost in an innovation process may be as important as what is created. The perils of innovation deserve attention, not just its promises.
普遍的观点认为,创新可以极大地提高国家武装力量的效率。但是,当军队不断增长的安全承诺超过不断萎缩的资源时,更有可能出现弄巧成拙的创新。这种巨大的承诺资源缺口迫使美军在新能力上孤注一掷,以实现过于雄心勃勃的目标,同时在新能力的有效性得到证实之前,蚕食传统能力。这样做增加了这样一种可能性,即当战争来临时,军方会发现新能力无法单独完成指定的任务,而忽视传统能力会产生被敌人利用的漏洞。为了探究这一论点的因果逻辑,本文通过一个案例研究考察了两次世界大战之间英国装甲部队的创新及其对二战期间英国陆军在北非战役中表现不佳的影响。研究结果表明,在新能力上下大赌注会带来巨大风险,因为在创新过程中失去的东西可能与创造的东西同样重要。创新的风险值得关注,而不仅仅是它的承诺。
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引用次数: 0
China's Party-State Capitalism and International Backlash: From Interdependence to Insecurity 中国的党国资本主义与国际反弹:从相互依赖到不安全
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00447
M. Pearson, Meg Rithmire, Kellee S. Tsai
Abstract Contrary to expectations, economic interdependence has not tempered security conflict between China and the United States. In response to perceived domestic and external threats, the Chinese Communist Party's actions to ensure regime security have generated insecurity in other states, causing them to adopt measures to constrain Chinese firms. Security dilemma dynamics best explain the subsequent reactions from many advanced industrialized countries to the evolution of China's political economy into party-state capitalism. Party-state capitalism manifests in two signature ways: (1) expansion of party-state authority in firms through changes in corporate governance and state-led financial instruments; and (2) enforcement of political fealty among various economic actors. Together, these trends have blurred the distinction between state and private capital in China and resulted in backlash, including intensified investment reviews, campaigns to exclude Chinese firms from strategic sectors, and the creation of novel domestic and international institutions to address perceived threats from Chinese actors. The uniqueness of China's model has prompted significant reorganization of the rules governing capitalism, both nationally and globally.
与预期相反,经济上的相互依赖并没有缓和中美之间的安全冲突。作为对国内和外部威胁的回应,中国共产党确保政权安全的行动在其他国家产生了不安全感,导致他们采取措施限制中国公司。安全困境动态最好地解释了许多发达工业化国家随后对中国政治经济演变为党国资本主义的反应。党国资本主义以两种典型的方式表现出来:(1)通过改变公司治理和国家主导的金融工具,扩大党国在公司中的权力;(2)各种经济行为者之间政治忠诚的强制执行。总之,这些趋势模糊了中国国有资本和私营资本之间的界限,并导致了反弹,包括加强投资审查,将中国公司排除在战略部门之外的运动,以及建立新的国内和国际机构来应对来自中国参与者的威胁。中国模式的独特性促使了资本主义治理规则的重大重组,无论是在国内还是在全球。
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引用次数: 7
Nowhere to Hide? Global Policing and the Politics of Extradition 无处可藏?全球警务与引渡政治
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00444
Daniel Krcmaric
Abstract Global policing efforts go far beyond combatting terrorism. The United States has tracked down war criminals in the former Yugoslavia, prosecuted Mexican drug kingpins in U.S. courts, transferred a Congolese warlord to the International Criminal Court, and even invaded foreign countries to apprehend wanted suspects. Likewise, Chinese police and intelligence forces crisscross the globe engaging in surveillance, abductions, and forced repatriations. But global policing activities are hard to study because they tend to occur “in the shadows.” Extradition treaties—agreements that facilitate the formal surrender of wanted fugitives from one country to another—represent a unique part of the global policing architecture that is directly observable. An original dataset of every extradition treaty that the United States has signed since its independence shows that extradition cooperation is not an automatic response to the globalization of crime. Instead, it is an extension of geopolitical competition. Geopolitical concerns are crucial because many states try to weaponize extradition treaties to target their political opponents living abroad, not just common criminals. Future research should reconceptualize the role of individuals in international security because many governments believe that a single person—whether a dissident, a rebel, or a terrorist—can imperil their national security.
全球警务工作远不止打击恐怖主义。美国在前南斯拉夫追捕战争罪犯,在美国法院起诉墨西哥毒枭,将一名刚果军阀移交给国际刑事法庭,甚至入侵外国逮捕通缉嫌疑人。同样,中国警察和情报部队在全球各地从事监视、绑架和强制遣返。但全球警务活动很难研究,因为它们往往发生在“阴影中”。引渡条约——促进从一个国家向另一个国家正式移交被通缉的逃犯的协议——代表了全球警务架构的一个独特部分,这是可以直接观察到的。美国独立以来签署的每一项引渡条约的原始数据集表明,引渡合作并不是对犯罪全球化的自动反应。相反,它是地缘政治竞争的延伸。地缘政治方面的担忧至关重要,因为许多国家试图将引渡条约武器化,以瞄准居住在国外的政治对手,而不仅仅是普通罪犯。未来的研究应该重新定义个人在国际安全中的作用,因为许多政府认为,一个人——无论是持不同政见者、反叛者还是恐怖分子——都可能危及他们的国家安全。
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引用次数: 2
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International Security
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