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Testing for Unemployment Hysteresis by Gender and Education Status in Türkiye 社会性别和教育程度对失业滞后的检验
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02860
Erdal Berk, Çağın Karul, Ahmet Koncak
This study aims to examine the dynamics of unemployment rates by gender and education status in Türkiye as a developing country over the January 2005– November 2020 period. There are mainly two theories about dynamic patterns in unemployment rates in the literature: natural rate and hysteresis hypothesis. The first theory states that unemployment will eventually reach a natural rate, which would indicate that it is stationary. Therefore, policymakers should refrain from meddling with their stabilizing strategies. According to the hysteresis hypothesis, the rigidity of the labor market causes shocks to have a permanent effect on unemployment rates. Therefore, the hysteresis indicates a non-stationary pattern of unemployment. Given the situation, policymakers should intervene in their stabilization strategies. To determine the stationarity properties of series, we use unit root tests developed for bounded time series, since unemployment rates are bounded, and conventional unit root tests become oversize when bounds are ignored. The results show that unemployment rates for primary school, vocational high school and male are stationary, which implies that natural rate hypothesis is valid, while hysteresis hypothesis is valid for other unemployment rates.
本研究旨在考察2005年1月至2020年11月期间,发展中国家土耳其按性别和教育状况划分的失业率动态。文献中关于失业率动态模式的理论主要有两种:自然率理论和滞后假说。第一种理论认为,失业率最终将达到一个自然比率,这将表明失业率是稳定的。因此,政策制定者应避免干预他们的稳定战略。根据迟滞假说,劳动力市场的刚性会导致对失业率产生永久性影响的冲击。因此,滞后性表明了失业的非平稳模式。鉴于这种情况,政策制定者应该干预他们的稳定战略。为了确定序列的平稳性,我们使用为有界时间序列开发的单位根检验,因为失业率是有界的,而当忽略界时,传统的单位根检验会变得过大。结果表明,小学失业率、职业高中失业率和男性失业率是平稳的,这意味着自然失业率假设是有效的,而滞后假设对其他失业率有效。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of Turkey, G7 and E7 Countries Considering Socio-Economic Indicators: CRITIC-Based MARCOS Method 考虑社会经济指标的土耳其、G7和E7国家的比较:基于临界的MARCOS方法
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02853
Semin Paksoy, Hande Şahin
Countries benefit from socio-economic indicators in order to measure their progress and development and to make the necessary plans regarding their own position in the global scale. Developed countries have to make comparisons using indicators in order to determine their performance realistically, to plan regional development goals and, when necessary, to define the objective special program for the countries in the same region or organization and to make the future projections. Developing countries also benefit from indicators measuring their positions to plan to establish a presence in the global economy creating their own competitive strategies. Because these countries try to keep up with and adapt to the dynamic changes determined by the proactive developed countries in socio-economic area. Therefore, cross country comparison is a highly important control mechanism. In this study, Turkey is compared with the E7 countries, of which it is a member, and the G7 countries, which are the world’s most developed countries. Countries are compared using the doing business index, sustainable development index, competitiveness index, global entrepreneurship index and social progress indexes for the period 2015-2020. The CRITIC-based MARCOS method is used to evaluate and compare the countries with respect to socio-economic global indices. The weights of the indicators were determined by CRITIC method and countries’ performances were converted into a single measurable numerical scale by MARCOS method. As a result of the analysis, it is seen that highly developed countries continue their systematic and continuous development in terms of selected indicators.
各国受益于社会经济指标,以衡量其进步和发展,并就其在全球范围内的地位制定必要的计划。发达国家必须利用指标进行比较,以便现实地确定其绩效,规划区域发展目标,必要时为同一区域或组织的国家确定客观的特别方案,并作出未来预测。发展中国家还受益于衡量其地位的指标,以便计划在全球经济中建立自己的竞争战略。因为这些国家试图跟上和适应积极主动的发达国家在社会经济领域所决定的动态变化。因此,跨国比较是一种非常重要的控制机制。在这项研究中,土耳其与E7国家和G7国家进行了比较,土耳其是E7国家的成员,G7国家是世界上最发达的国家。各国在2015-2020年期间通过营商指数、可持续发展指数、竞争力指数、全球创业指数和社会进步指数进行比较。使用基于critical的MARCOS方法来评估和比较各国的社会经济全球指数。采用CRITIC法确定各指标的权重,采用MARCOS法将国家绩效转化为单一的可测量数值尺度。分析的结果表明,高度发达国家继续在选定的指标方面进行系统和持续的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Organizational Problems of Governance in the Kyrgyz Republic 吉尔吉斯共和国治理的组织问题
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02746
Jusup Pirimbaev
The article discusses the results of the study of governance problems in the Kyrgyz Republic in the period after the declaration of independence. The lack of consistency in the organization of governance has actually led to the destruction of its integrity and reduced its effectiveness to zero. Therefore, taking into account various alternatives and options for organizing governance, the ways to overcome the accumulated problems are shown, which can open the way to a broad discussion in society and organize a systemic improvement of the process of improving the effectiveness of governance, designed for the long term. The system approach to governance is the cornerstone of the optimization of the country's economy as a whole and the implementation of a stable economic policy, in particular. Also, the system approach creates a firm basis for strengthening and mobilizing the executive power as a single organism, providing the development and growth of the state economy.
本文讨论了对宣布独立后的吉尔吉斯共和国治理问题的研究结果。治理组织缺乏一致性实际上导致了其完整性的破坏,并将其有效性降至零。因此,考虑到组织治理的各种替代方案和选择,显示了克服积累问题的方法,这可以为社会上的广泛讨论开辟道路,并为长期设计的提高治理有效性的过程组织系统改进。制度治理是优化国家整体经济,特别是实施稳定经济政策的基石。此外,制度方法为加强和动员作为一个单一有机体的行政权力创造了坚实的基础,为国家经济的发展和增长提供了保障。
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引用次数: 0
European Union’s Green Deal and Sustainable Finance 欧盟的绿色协议和可持续金融
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02773
Burcu Sakız, Ayşen Hiç Gencer
The European Union (EU) unveiled the European Green Deal (EGD) in the year 2019 with the aim of transforming the union into a climate-neutral economy by 2050. The European Union’s Green Deal aims to mobilize private capital toward sustainable investments in this regard, and to ensure that the financial system is resilient to environmental risks. Hence, sustainable finance is a crucial part of the deal. This paper explores the EU's Green Deal and its sustainable finance agenda. The first two sections provide a comprehensive overview on the background and the significance of the EU’s Green Deal and its sustainable finance agenda, while underlining the theoretical and the practical ramifications of directing private money toward sustainable investments and making sure that the financial system is resistant to environmental threats. The Taxonomy Regulation, the Green Bond Standard, the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, and the Non-Financial Reporting Directive are a few of the regulatory tools and data sources for the EGD’s sustainable financing framework, and these are covered in the third section of this study. The fourth section discusses the conditions for a sustainable finance agenda for required for implementing the EGD, and the fifth section elaborates on the challenges to be faced along the process. The paper's key conclusions, which are presented in the final sixth section, include the necessity of harmonizing and standardizing sustainable finance processes, the significance of high-quality environmental, social and governance (ESG) data, and the implications for the financial sector, businesses, and investors.
欧盟(EU)于2019年公布了《欧洲绿色协议》(EGD),旨在到2050年将欧盟转变为气候中性经济体。欧盟的《绿色协议》旨在动员私人资本进行这方面的可持续投资,并确保金融体系能够抵御环境风险。因此,可持续融资是协议的关键部分。本文探讨了欧盟的绿色协议及其可持续金融议程。前两部分全面概述了欧盟绿色协议及其可持续金融议程的背景和意义,同时强调了将私人资金引向可持续投资并确保金融体系能够抵御环境威胁的理论和实践后果。分类法规、绿色债券标准、可持续财务披露法规和非财务报告指令是EGD可持续融资框架的一些监管工具和数据来源,这些将在本研究的第三部分中介绍。第四部分讨论了实施EGD所需的可持续金融议程的条件,第五部分详细阐述了在此过程中面临的挑战。本文的主要结论(见最后的第六部分)包括协调和标准化可持续金融流程的必要性,高质量环境、社会和治理(ESG)数据的重要性,以及对金融部门、企业和投资者的影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Reflections of The Changing Government Approach to Public Finance: Case of Turkey 政府公共财政方式转变的思考——以土耳其为例
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02776
Tuba Yıldırım Gezer
From past to present, the state mechanism has expanded its field of activity to ensure social order as a result of the increase and complexity of the needs of individuals, and for this purpose, it has obtained the right to intervene in the lives of individuals. The state, which expanded its sphere of influence, especially until the middle of the 20th century, was sometimes the solution to the problems, and sometimes the problem itself. With the emergence of the concept of globalization, the understanding of the state has also changed. Rather than being intervening, the regulatory and guiding role of the states was emphasized, and a free-market economy approach was adopted. The change in the understanding of the state also reflected the economic and fiscal policies of the states. In this context, ensuring fiscal discipline, fiscal transparency, public expenditure, budget and borrowing policies have been rearranged to ensure financial stability. In Turkey, because of the importance of public fiscal discipline understanding, some constitutional arrangements have been made. In this context, the adaptation of the state to the new economic system has been facilitated. In this study, the effects of the understanding of the state on tax, public expenditures, budget and borrowing, which are public finance instruments, are interpreted with the help of tables and evaluated in the light of data from the perspective of Turkey.
从过去到现在,由于个人需求的增加和复杂,国家机制扩大了其活动领域,以确保社会秩序,为此目的,它获得了干预个人生活的权利。扩大其影响范围的国家,特别是在20世纪中叶之前,有时是问题的解决方案,有时是问题本身。随着全球化概念的出现,对国家的认识也发生了变化。政府没有进行干预,而是强调国家的监管和指导作用,并采用了自由市场经济的方式。对国家认识的变化也反映了各州的经济和财政政策。在此背景下,确保财政纪律、财政透明度、公共支出、预算和借款政策都得到了重新安排,以确保金融稳定。在土耳其,由于理解公共财政纪律的重要性,已经作出了一些宪法安排。在这种情况下,促进了国家适应新的经济制度。在本研究中,对国家的理解对税收、公共支出、预算和借贷这些公共财政工具的影响,将借助表格进行解释,并根据土耳其的数据进行评估。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects of Developments in Financial Markets and Currency-Protected Deposit System on Financial Deepening: The Case of Turkey 金融市场发展和货币保护存款制度对金融深化的影响:以土耳其为例
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02804
Koray Yıldırım, Esma Erdoğan, Neşe Algan, Harun Bal
In this study, the effects of credit volume, stock market trading volume and currency protected deposit (CPD) system on financial deepening (M2/M1) of the Turkish economy for the period 2010M1:2023M2 (T=158) are analyzed by Structural VAR (SVAR) method. According to the findings, credit volume shocks have a significant effect while the effect of stock market trading volume is limited. In advanced financial systems, the M2/M1 ratio hovers between 4 and 6. The financial deepening ratio, which was measured as 4.86 at the beginning of the analyzed period, was at its lowest level of 2.41 in 2021M12 when the CPD system was announced. After the implementation of the CPD system, the financial deepening ratio improved slightly to 2.67. At the same time, the existence of structural change before and after the CPD system is found to be significant according to the Chow test. On the other hand, when the developments in financial markets are analyzed, the significant increase in credit volume was not reflected positively on financial deepening. The inflationary process in recent years has had a significant impact on this process. In conclusion, inflationary expectations and the increase in asset purchases are the main factors behind the decline in financial deepening in the Turkish economy. Although the CPD system has been reasonably successful, rationally based policies are needed to replace this practice, which is expected to be temporary, as well as to strengthen financial deepening.
本研究采用结构VAR (Structural VAR, SVAR)方法分析了2010M1:2023M2 (T=158)期间土耳其经济金融深化(M2/M1)的信贷量、股票市场交易量和货币保本(CPD)制度的影响。研究发现,信贷量冲击的影响显著,而股市交易量的影响有限。在发达的金融体系中,M2/M1比率徘徊在4到6之间。金融深化比率在分析期开始时为4.86,在公布CPD制度的2012年达到了2.41的最低水平。实施持续发展制度后,金融深化率略有提高,为2.67。同时,通过Chow检验发现CPD制度前后存在显著的结构变化。另一方面,当分析金融市场的发展时,信贷量的显著增加并没有积极地反映在金融深化上。近年来的通货膨胀进程对这一进程产生了重大影响。总之,通胀预期和资产购买的增加是土耳其经济金融深化程度下降的主要因素。虽然持续发展方案制度相当成功,但需要有合理基础的政策来取代这种预计是暂时的做法,并加强财政深化。
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引用次数: 0
Tourism Sector in Uzbekistan and its Growth Prospects 乌兹别克斯坦旅游业及其增长前景
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02851
Obidjon Khamidov
In 2022, the number of tourists visiting Uzbekistan increased 3 times compared to 2021, and the export volume of the industry reached 1.6 billion USD. The number of domestic tourists has exceeded 11 million. But we are far from the opinion that the existing potential is being fully used, despite the fact that there are many cultural heritage objects, places of rest, and monuments that can attract the attention of tourists. There is a need for scientific approaches in the development, promotion and presentation of tourism products. The article analyses the current trends in the tourism sector of Uzbekistan and evaluates its potential in contributing to economic growth and development. Used data is derived from statistical reports of the last years. Evaluation of perspectives is performed on correlation of several indicators, related with tourism sector and overall economic conditions. Research and analysis within the scope of the article proposes that there are evident perspectives for increasing the share of tourism sector in GDP. The main recommendations for the policy in the sphere are targeted to infrastructure improvement, education, marketing and branding measures, as complex approach in promoting Uzbekistan tourism.
2022年赴乌旅游人数比2021年增长3倍,旅游行业出口额达16亿美元。国内游客数量已超过1100万人次。尽管有许多文化遗产、休息场所和纪念碑可以吸引游客的注意,但我们认为现有的潜力还没有得到充分利用。旅游产品的开发、推广和展示需要科学的方法。本文分析了乌兹别克斯坦旅游部门的当前趋势,并评估了其在促进经济增长和发展方面的潜力。所使用的数据来自过去几年的统计报告。对前景的评价是根据与旅游部门和总体经济状况有关的若干指标的相关性进行的。本文范围内的研究和分析表明,增加旅游业在GDP中的份额有明显的前景。该领域的主要政策建议是针对基础设施改善,教育,营销和品牌措施,作为促进乌兹别克斯坦旅游业的复杂方法。
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引用次数: 0
Brand Positioning Strategies through Accreditation in Higher Education Institutions on the Internationalization Process 国际化进程中高校认证的品牌定位策略
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02827
Ayça Oralkan
Higher education is a significant indicator of the development level of the countries and undertakes the locomotive role in the enhancement of the relevant country. Institutions go through accreditation processes to improve the quality of higher education output, and to verify that they meet the required minimum requirements nationally and internationally. Accredited institutions, by declaring that they provide added value in the field of education with these documents -at least in terms of requirements- aim to make their names stand out in the minds of students, industry, government, and academic staff. As in almost every field, higher education institutions may intend to gain a competitive advantage by offering a distinctive and unique set of services for their target audience. Based on the literature and empirical studies, this paper focuses on the importance of the brand positioning strategies of higher education institutions in the process of harmonization with national and international standards. It is aimed to evaluate the aspects of accreditation in brand positioning strategies by reviewing previous studies. Within the scope of brand positioning strategies, national and international accreditation processes, and outputs are planned to be reviewed in general. In this regard, through the evaluation of accreditation in terms of brand positioning strategies, a model is presented in the context of related strategies for higher education institutions. Higher education institutions have the potential to become leading international productivity centers by revealing their identities with their positioning strategies.
高等教育是一个国家发展水平的重要标志,在国家发展中起着火车头的作用。院校通过认证程序来提高高等教育产出的质量,并验证它们是否符合国内和国际的最低要求。认证机构通过这些文件(至少在要求方面)宣称他们在教育领域提供了附加价值,目的是让他们的名字在学生、行业、政府和学术人员的脑海中脱颖而出。就像在几乎所有领域一样,高等教育机构可能打算通过为目标受众提供一套与众不同的独特服务来获得竞争优势。本文在文献研究和实证研究的基础上,着重探讨了高校品牌定位战略在与国家和国际标准接轨过程中的重要性。通过回顾以往的研究,本研究旨在评估品牌定位策略中认证的各个方面。在品牌定位战略的范围内,计划对国家和国际认证程序和产出进行总体审查。在此基础上,通过品牌定位策略下的认证评估,提出了高校相关策略背景下的认证评估模型。高等教育机构有潜力通过其定位战略彰显其身份,成为领先的国际生产力中心。
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引用次数: 0
Developing the Perception of Innovation in Organizations with STEM-based Practices 利用基于stem的实践在组织中发展对创新的感知
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02864
Volkan Kuyucuoğlu
Creativity and innovation are terms that have started to be used much more in the international arena, but they are also one of the important concepts for organizations in our country. The problem is finding the necessary human resources for change and managing the change process in line with the innovative perspective. The one of the solutions is the STEM Model, which emerges as one of the models applied in the education method in order to develop creativity and innovative thinking in individuals. It is thought that the implementation of training programs that take the STEM model as a reference in organizations, will be improve the innovativeness perception of organizations. Data related to the study will be obtained through one-on-one interviews with companies that have R&D units and are in sectors that require innovation by their nature (IT and Technology). In addition, the results of studies on STEM applications in the field of business in the literature will be added to the data pool. It is understood from the studies that the STEM model, makes a positive change in the perception of creativity and innovation. With the implementation of the STEM model in adults, it is thought that the perception of creativity and innovation will develop positively on individuals (and therefore businesses). After this study, it is planned to create a model and training programs for the implementation of the STEM model in adults in order to develop the perception of innovation and creativity.
创造力和创新是在国际舞台上使用得越来越多的术语,但它们也是我国组织的重要概念之一。问题是为变革找到必要的人力资源,并按照创新的观点管理变革过程。其中一个解决方案是STEM模型,它作为一种应用于教育方法的模型,以培养个人的创造力和创新思维。研究认为,在组织中实施以STEM模型为参考的培训计划,将有助于提高组织的创新感知。与研究相关的数据将通过与拥有研发部门的公司进行一对一访谈来获得,这些公司属于本质上需要创新的行业(IT和技术)。此外,文献中关于STEM在商业领域应用的研究结果将被添加到数据池中。从研究中可以了解到,STEM模型对创造力和创新的认知产生了积极的影响。随着STEM模型在成人中的实施,人们认为个人(以及企业)对创造力和创新的看法将积极发展。本研究结束后,拟建立STEM模式在成人中的实施模式及训练计划,以培养创新与创造力的认知。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Macro-Prudential Policies on Macro-Financial Stability 宏观审慎政策对宏观金融稳定的影响
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.36880/c15.02861
Burhan Biçer, Fikret Dülger, Almıla Burgaç
The 2008 global crisis, which emerged in the financial markets and spread to the real economy, and the subsequent developments revealed the inefficiency of traditional monetary policies for financial stability and led to the use of macro prudential policy (MPP) tools that also target financial stability. As in many countries affected by the crisis, various MPPs have been implemented in the Turkish economy in order to prevent the spread of negative shocks arisen from credit expansion, capital movements affecting asset prices and credit financing quality, and the banking system throughout the economy. In this context, it becomes important whether MPPs, which increased after 2010 and require the efficiency of the credit-asset channel, contribute to macro-financial stability. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to investigate the possible effects of MPPs implemented in the Turkish economy on selected variables such as capital movements, credit expansion, production and especially inflation for the period 2010-2021 using VAR analysis. The findings support the use of these policies for macro-financial stability.
2008年全球金融危机在金融市场爆发并蔓延到实体经济,随后的事态发展揭示了传统货币政策对金融稳定的低效作用,并导致了同样以金融稳定为目标的宏观审慎政策(MPP)工具的使用。与许多受危机影响的国家一样,土耳其经济中实施了各种mpp,以防止信贷扩张、影响资产价格和信贷融资质量的资本流动以及整个经济中的银行体系所产生的负面冲击蔓延。在此背景下,在2010年之后增加并要求信贷-资产渠道效率的mpp是否有助于宏观金融稳定变得非常重要。因此,在本研究中,它的目的是调查在土耳其经济中实施的mpp对选定变量的可能影响,如资本流动、信贷扩张、生产,特别是2010-2021年期间的通货膨胀。研究结果支持使用这些政策来维持宏观金融稳定。
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引用次数: 0
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Uluslararası Avrasya ekonomileri konferansı
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